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Trade Deadline Primer: Edmonton Oilers

at CDT | by 11 Comments

With the All-Star break now behind us, the trade deadline looms large and is less than a month away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Edmonton Oilers.

After some early panic, the Oilers have settled into a groove of late and are making a strong push for the Pacific Division crown. Connor McDavid has reached another level of offensive greatness with 92 points through 50 games, and Leon Draisaitl is second in the league scoring race (but still trails by 16 points). Stuart Skinner has given them some stability in net, and Zach Hyman continues to outperform his contract.

Still, there are some concerns about the defense in Edmonton, and the forward group still lacks depth. The gap from the fourth-highest scoring forward (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins) to the fifth (Ryan McLeod) is 45 points, showing just how much room for improvement there is at the deadline. If they can find creative ways to make the cap work, everything is set up for the Oilers to make a big splash this year to fill out the lineup card and try to go on another deep postseason run.

Record

28-18-4, 4th in the Pacific

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$1.125MM in LTIR relief, 1/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: EDM 1st, EDM 2nd, EDM 3rd, EDM 5th, EDM 6th, EDM 7th
2024: EDM 1st, EDM 2nd, EDM 4th, EDM 5th, EDM 6th

Trade Chips

First and foremost, it is all-in time for Edmonton with regard to their draft picks. The team only has three more playoff runs with Leon Draisaitl before his bargain contract expires and four until McDavid once again becomes the highest-paid player in the league. Their first-round pick this year and next should be in play if it can get them closer to a championship.

That’s not to say they throw it away for an insignificant rental, but there are no more building years in Edmonton. The time is now to challenge for the Cup, and if an impact player is available (even better if they come with a few years of control), Ken Holland should be willing to lose as many picks as it takes.

Beyond that, some other chips could be on the table as the deadline approaches.

Jesse Puljujarvi is the one that stands out, as his time in Edmonton appears to be dwindling one way or another. The 24-year-old can’t score this season, and sits with just four goals and ten points through 49 games. Is he getting a great opportunity? Not anymore, but that shouldn’t stop him from outscoring someone like Brett Kulak or Derek Ryan. Puljujarvi isn’t going to bring back much on his own, but moving him out would open up some cap flexibility for the Oilers to make a bigger move.

On the other hand, a young player like Dylan Holloway could also be dangled in a significant trade. The 21-year-old has shown enough in his rookie season to prove he will play many NHL games but not enough to guarantee he is a top line player. Selected 14th overall in 2020, if he isn’t ready to make an impact this year, he shouldn’t be off limits in trade talks. With just nine points in 46 games, that seems to be the case.

Something similar could be said about Evan Bouchard, who has seen his ice time slashed this season. The 10th overall pick from 2018 is still just 23 and had an encouraging 43-point rookie season last year, but is still a liability on defense and can’t be entirely trusted by the coaching staff. If the Oilers target a legitimate top-four defenseman at the deadline, there’s certainly a chance the other team targets Bouchard as a piece coming back.

Other potential trade chips: F Raphael Lavoie, F Xavier Bourgault, F Reid Schaefer

Team Needs

1) Third-line center: Defense doesn’t always mean defensemen. Acquiring a true two-way pivot that can fill the third-line role, allowing Nugent-Hopkins to move up into the top-six full-time, would solve several of the Oilers’ problems. Sometimes, the term two-way is used to describe defense-only players – that’s not what Edmonton would be targeting here. This is a true impact player who can drive play in the right direction while keeping the puck out of his own net. He doesn’t need to be McDavid on offense or Patrice Bergeron on defense, but a true difference-maker in this spot would help take some of the pressure off the top players while also elevating the Oilers whenever they are off the ice.

2) Top-four defenseman: The need for a defenseman might eventually disappear with the play of Philip Broberg, but it’s hard to bet on him ascending into a big role this postseason. Getting a minute-munching defender who can play in all situations is a must for the Oilers at the deadline. The caveat here is that it shouldn’t be the kind of bruising, physical addition several other contenders will look for. Edmonton desperately needs another player who can defend hard but also move the puck quickly to their talented forwards. Someone who could theoretically take over the powerplay duties from Tyson Barrie would be ideal, though it would be hard to mess with a unit that is clipping along at 32%.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

PHR Mailbag: Dylan Larkin Edition

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With Bo Horvat off the market now following his trade (and subsequent extension), the intrigue surrounding Red Wings center Dylan Larkin has started to pick up.  To that end, there were a few questions about him in our latest mailbag callout.  Rather than squeeze answers these into yesterday’s column, let’s assess Larkin’s specific situation here instead.  The rest of the mailbag will run next weekend as usual.

joebad34: With Dylan Larkin having difficulties getting a new contract from Detroit, is he now on the trading block? What would be the asking price? Would the Sabres sending, #1, Mittelstadt, Olofsson, Krebs and the rights to Portillo or Johnson work, if the Sabres and Larkin agree to a deal?

So, let’s look at where things stand first.  It was reported latest last month that Larkin’s camp rejected an eight-year, $64MM extension.  At first glance, it could be inferred that he’s likely to be traded, especially since that offer represented a notable increase on his current $6.1MM AAV.  Not so fast.  Larkin told reporters (including ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski) earlier this week that he still sees himself as a Red Wing long-term and reiterated his hope to stay with his hometown team.

With that in mind, I would suggest that right now, he’s not on the trade block.  While I’m among the many that are stunned that an extension isn’t done yet, a month is still a fairly long time to get something done.  At this point, there’s no immediate rush to start soliciting offers; Plan A is still getting a deal signed.  Until things get to the point where an extension for sure isn’t getting done, I expect GM Steve Yzerman’s sole focus will be on the contract, not a trade.

Now, as to this trade proposal, you have too much going back.  Three players, a prospect, and a first-rounder is too much even with the expected premium that would be associated with doing a sign-and-trade.  I also wonder how much value the prospects have.  If Ryan Johnson’s heart is set on testing free agency this summer, how useful is he to Detroit, aside from the compensatory late second-round pick?  It’s a similar question for Erik Portillo who doesn’t have the compensatory pick option and frankly, the Red Wings are hoping Sebastian Cossa is their goalie of the future even with his first pro season not going the smoothest.

Out of the other pieces, I think a combo of Peyton Krebs, the first-round pick, and Casey Mittelstadt would be of interest to Detroit; I don’t sense Victor Olofsson would be the type of player Detroit would be willing to take on.  Is that enough for an extended Larkin?  I would say no but as a pure rental, that type of offer might get them in the mix if Detroit does wind up moving him and Buffalo decides to try to make a trade splash.

tigers22 2: What would possible packages be for Larkin and Bertuzzi if the Red Wings aren’t able to get new contracts with them done and decide to deal them?

The Horvat trade provides a pretty good idea of what Larkin’s trade market should be.  They’re in the same tier talent-wise (I know Horvat’s having a big year offensively but historically, they’re comparable), on somewhat close contracts, and are seeking a pretty big raise.  Horvat (with 25% retention) yielded a cap matcher (Anthony Beauvillier), a protected first-round pick, and a good prospect in Aatu Raty.  Larkin’s numbers aren’t as good but if Detroit was willing to retain 50% instead of the 25% Vancouver retained, that would help even out the difference.  There are too many teams to break down the same type of offer from but that would be a reasonable framework.

Then there’s Tyler Bertuzzi, a player whose value has probably taken a beating this season.  A year ago, he produced like a top-line winger.  This year, he can’t stay healthy and has just one goal in 17 games.  If you’re Detroit, you’re hyping last season’s numbers.  If you’re another team, you’re pointing at how poorly things have gone this season and are offering accordingly.  With 50% retention, I could see a team going as high a second-round pick if they think he can rebound and perhaps fit beyond this season.  I don’t expect there to be much more of a package than that though unless the acquiring team needs to send some money back.

Johnny Z: What do you think of Larkin being traded to Boston? A Horvat-type return would be DeBrusk, Brett Harrison, and a 23 1st for Larkin at 1/2 salary. Does that sound about right?

I really like the idea of Larkin to Boston in theory (again, this assumes an extension doesn’t get done).  Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci aren’t going to be around much longer and at some point, he’s going to need to be replaced.  Internally, their options are basically moving Pavel Zacha back down the middle and Charlie Coyle.  They’re both good players but neither of them are top centers.  Getting and extending Larkin would be a great outcome but fitting him and a re-signed David Pastrnak in could be tricky.

I’m not quite as bullish on the idea of him being a rental player.  Yes, this is a go-for-broke type of season but is an acquisition that pushes Krejci to the third line the right move to make?  If it’s a pure rental, I think a top-four defender might be the better way to go to work as injury insurance and really deepen that part of their lineup.  They’re the top-scoring team and the top defensive team so either way, it’s adding to an organizational strength but I think the back end is the thinner part to address.  Don’t get me wrong, Larkin as a rental would certainly help as well but it might not be the most optimal spot to address for a short-term upgrade.

As for the offer, I’m not sure Jake DeBrusk is someone that Boston wants to part with right now.  He’s at a considerably higher level than Beauvillier, a player some have suggested that the Isles were open to moving in the past just to get him off the books let alone for a return of quality.  That’s a sunk cost whereas DeBrusk is in the middle of a career year.  Mike Reilly is more of a salary ballast type of player.

Now, with Boston’s pick set to be considerably lower than New York’s, that prospect needs to be better than Raty.  I’m not sure Brett Harrison is, at least to a big enough extent.  I could see Detroit wanting Fabian Lysell here, especially if it’s a sign-and-trade while Mason Lohrei could be the difference-splitter as someone that could conceivably push for a spot with Detroit as soon as next season.  Is that an offer that would vault them to the top?  Perhaps not but it’d be high enough to have them legitimately in the bidding should the Red Wings get to that point if discussions on an extension with Larkin fall apart.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Deadline Primer: Columbus Blue Jackets

at CDT | by 6 Comments

With the All-Star break now upon us, the trade deadline looms large and is just a month away. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Columbus Blue Jackets.

When the Columbus Blue Jackets signed Johnny Gaudreau to a seven-year, $68.25MM contract last summer, and followed it up with a four-year, $34.8MM deal for Patrik Laine, the message was clear: it’s time for a new identity. Seth Jones had been traded, and there was to be a new duo leading the way to contention. Gaudreau and Laine seemed like a perfect fit stylistically, and the team committed nearly $20MM per season to put them together.

Unfortunately, you can’t predict injuries, and the absences have decimated the Blue Jackets. Laine has missed time on several occasions, Zach Werenski was ruled out early for the season, Jakub Voracek’s career is in doubt, and the injured reserve list has had at least five or six players on a constant rotation through the year. The Blue Jackets’ season is over, and now they will be focused on securing the best draft position by losing as many games as possible down the stretch. Trading off expiring assets is a must.

Record

15-32-4, 8th in the Metropolitan

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$8.87MM in LTIR relief (with the possibility for much more), 0/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: CBJ 1st, CBJ 2nd, CBJ 3rd, CGY 3rd, CBJ 4th, WPG 4th, CBJ 6th, CBJ 7th
2024: CBJ 1st, CBJ 2nd, CBJ 3rd, CBJ 4th, CBJ 5th, CBJ 6th, CBJ 7th

Trade Chips

The big one in Columbus this year is Vladislav Gavrikov, who has already drawn interest from a number of contending teams. The pending free agent defenseman has likely had his name mentioned more by NHL media over the last few months than his entire career to this point. While he won’t offer a ton of offensive production, the 6’3″ shutdown defender has averaged nearly 21 minutes a night for his four-year NHL career, racking up nearly 400 blocked shots, and over 300 hits during that stretch.

This isn’t a bruiser, exactly – Gavrikov did have 33 points last season for Columbus – but he also isn’t going to come in and run a powerplay. His fit is likely on a contender’s second or third pairing while logging big penalty-killing minutes. Luckily, for the Blue Jackets, that’s exactly what playoff hopefuls are looking for. Most top teams already have their powerplay quarterbacks and top-pairing roles secured internally and are just looking to add a competent defender to the mix before a long playoff grind. With Gavrikov’s $2.8MM cap hit, almost anyone in the league could afford to fit him in, given the right circumstances.

There is also someone like Joonas Korpisalo, who could be acquired as a backup goaltender, though his performance the last few years has been anything but consistent. On an expiring $1.3MM contract, he has a .908 save percentage this season through 23 appearances but was sub-.900 in each of the last two years. As a break-glass option, he might be useful, but there aren’t any true contenders looking at him as a legitimate starter.

One of the most interesting chips that the Blue Jackets have is Gustav Nyquist, who recently was ruled out for the rest of the regular season. That doesn’t mean playoffs, and his camp immediately put the word out that the veteran forward would work hard in hopes of returning for some postseason action. If that is possible, any team currently in LTIR could acquire him (as long as they can creatively open the required space for one day), stash him until the playoffs, and then activate him whenever he’s ready.

The Blue Jackets are actually experienced in this kind of transaction. In 2021, Columbus traded Riley Nash to the Toronto Maple Leafs while he was injured, in exchange for a conditional seventh-round pick. If Nash was able to rehab and appear for the Maple Leafs in the playoffs, the pick would upgrade to a sixth-rounder – which it did. Nyquist is a much better offensive piece than Nash ever was, and the Blue Jackets may be able to secure something even better, should his rehab go well over the next month.

Other potential trade chips: D Marcus Bjork, D Gavin Bayreuther, F Eric Robinson

Team Needs

1) Centers: Unlike some of the other teams fighting for the basement, Columbus isn’t going through a tear-down rebuild. They are actually on their way up, with young players installed all over the roster. One of the biggest problems to this point, however, has been the lack of depth down the middle. As much as the team loves captain Boone Jenner, to be competitive he can’t really operate as a first-line player. Jack Roslovic has never taken that next step, and youngsters like Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson are still finding their way. The Blue Jackets may be one of the rare teams that actually want a veteran back in deadline deals, someone who can step in and play meaningful minutes for them right away. That doesn’t mean over-the-hill stars, but in-their-prime players who can have an impact.

2) Draft picks: That’s not to say they won’t be loading up on picks. Capital in this year’s draft is precious, especially if the Blue Jackets want to make any offseason moves to improve the roster. The goaltending is currently an issue, and they probably need to target another defenseman at some point to replace Gavrikov’s outgoing minutes. Adding some picks at the deadline would give Jarmo Kekalainen a lot more flexibility in making deals on the draft floor.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Trade Deadline Primer: Boston Bruins

at CDT | by 4 Comments

With the All-Star break now upon us, the trade deadline looms large and is just over a month away. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Boston Bruins.

Unlike the two prior teams covered in this series, the Anaheim Ducks and Chicago Blackhawks, the Boston Bruins’ goal is not to sink as far down in the standings as possible to ensure the best possible chance at landing Connor Bedard. In fact, the Bruins’ play so far this season makes such a plan at this point almost impossible.

The Bruins have been the best team in hockey so far this season, and it’s not really up for debate. The team is 39-7-2 with 83 points.

Last season, the Washington Capitals made the playoffs out of the Eastern Conference. They won 44 games.

The Bruins have already won 39.

This is a team looking to win a Stanley Cup this season, a year that could potentially be the final campaign for core pieces such as Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci.

But where the trade deadline is concerned, the team’s success is a double-edged sword. On one hand, the Bruins players have absolutely earned some reinforcements. Should GM Don Sweeney remain entirely passive during the trade frenzy, that could send a poor message to the Bruins’ players, that their immense efforts this season were not rewarded with some additions to their lineup. But on the other hand, it would be reasonable for Boston to be weary of making changes to a lineup formula that has worked so well.

That leaves the team in an intriguing position heading into trade season. There are definitely ways for Boston to bolster its already formidable lineup, and there are quite a few high-end players who would fit very well in coach Jim Montgomery’s lineup. But with how well the team has done as currently constructed, the team’s trade deadline strategy may not be as simple as just trying to add the most talented player available.

Record

39-7-2, 1st in Atlantic

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$3.25MM today, $3.25MM in deadline space, 0/3 retention slots used, 47/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: BOS 1st, BOS 3rd, BOS 4th, BOS 5th, BOS 6th, BOS 7th, LAK 7th

2024: BOS 1st, BOS 3rd, BOS 4th, BOS 5th, BOS 6th

Trade Chips

This is where things get a bit more complicated. The Bruins’ success this season makes it unlikely that they would entertain removing a roster player from their lineup as part of a trade. It’s not impossible, of course, but subtracting from the current lineup in order to add outside talent would be a risk.

But on the other hand, it may be a risk the Bruins are forced to take. Outside of players currently on their roster, the Bruins have one of the thinner pools of assets to deal from in the entire NHL. The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler recently ranked the Bruins’ prospect pool as the 30th-best in the NHL, and the team is missing both this year and next year’s second-round picks. (subscription link)

So if the Bruins want to go all-in on this season and have the best chance at putting together a winning offer for a top-end player, their best trade chip is likely 2021 first-round pick Fabian Lysell. Lysell, 20, has played this season for the Providence Bruins, and scored decently well. He has 22 points in 27 games, and has the potential to be a top-six forward in the NHL.

Like any prospect, there are question marks regarding Lysell’s future and the eventual NHL career he’ll end up having. But he’s an undoubtedly talented offensive threat and clearly the Bruins’ top prospect. If the team is engaged on a player such as Timo Meier, the Bruins may not be able to compete with the offers other clubs can make without including Lysell.

Other trade chips from the team’s prospect pool include Ohio State defenseman Mason Lohrei, undrafted winger Georgii Merkulov, and OHLer Matthew Poitras, though it’s unlikely anyone in that trio would be able to center a trade offer the way Lysell could.

Should the Bruins be forced to deal from their NHL roster in order to get a trade over the line, potential names they could deal include speedy winger Jakub Lauko, whose path to success on the team’s left side seems cloudy, or Trent Frederic, who is in the midst of a breakout year offensively but will be an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent in the summer.

Other potential trade chips: 2023 first-round pick, 2024 first-round pick, Jakub Zboril, Mike Reilly, John Beecher

Team Needs

1) Another high-end offensive weapon: It’s difficult to really pick any major “needs” on the Bruins’ roster, as the team is extremely well-rounded. When the roster is at full health, 2018 Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall is the Bruins’ third-line left winger. That’s the kind of depth and roster balance most teams can only dream of. But if there’s one thing the team could prioritize going into the deadline, it’s adding another high-end piece to really solidify their spot at the top of the NHL. Sweeney hasn’t been shy about adding big-name players in the past, whether it’s in trades for players such as Hall, Hampus Lindholm, or Rick Nash. If the Bruins are committed to going all-in on this year’s team, they could shop at the top of the market once again.

2) Left-Shot Defenseman: At the current moment, the Bruins have Reilly, an NHL veteran, in the AHL due to not only his cap hit but also the immense amount of depth the team has on the left side of their defense. But if the Bruins want to add major cap dollars to their roster, trading Reilly could be one of the more viable ways for the team to get that done. In that case, adding another left-shot defenseman could end up being a priority. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman wrote on his 32 thoughts column that the Bruins are “believed to be in the left-defense market,” citing names such as Jakob Chychrun and Vladislav Gavrikov as possibilities.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

PHR Mailbag: Blues, Flyers, Rangers, Penguins, Avalanche, Predators, NHLPA

at CDT | by 4 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the future of Flyers GM Chuck Fletcher, the challenges the Penguins will face if they try to rebuild, the trade deadline challenge for the Avalanche, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check for it in next weekend’s mailbag.  Unless you asked about Dylan Larkin.  He’ll be the focus of a bonus mailbag column tomorrow.

Gmm8811: It pains me to say this but I fear the Blues are in need of a major overhaul from top to bottom. Their fiscal situation isn’t sustainable. They need to start stockpiling draft picks. Their reserve list is ok but pretty bare of any significant talent. Tarasenko and O’Reilly could bring some nice draft picks. Parayko has become the fans whipping boy…I can see him being moved. Maybe Krug goes too. Binnington overpaid for the return the team gets from him. Defense needs to get tougher and bottom six forwards need to improve. This team is not set up for the future at all in my opinion.

I would be surprised to see anywhere this level of an overhaul coming from St. Louis in the coming weeks before the deadline.  Yes, some changes will be coming, largely because of their cap situation when $10.65MM gets added to their books with the new deals for Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas kick in and that won’t allow them to re-sign or replace both Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly.  Barring a drastic improvement over the next few weeks, the pending UFAs could be traded but I doubt we’ll see much more than moving out their rentals by March 3rd.

I do think there’s a desire for the back end to be tougher but this is an easier-said-than-done scenario.  Colton Parayko’s injury history hurts his value, as does the fact he’s signed until 2030.  There’s some concern that his contract won’t age well.  Given his importance on their current back end, I don’t think they want to sell low on him.  Torey Krug has four years left at $6.5MM as well.  Look at what happened with Shayne Gostisbehere a couple of years ago with Philadelphia having to pay to get the last two years of his deal off their books.  I don’t think that’s a route they want to take.  Jordan Binnington is in a similar situation, four years left at $6MM is a negative-value deal right now.  In the short term, creating a spot for Tyler Tucker to play regularly on the third pairing will give them a bit more physicality while I wouldn’t hold your breath about big improvements coming to the bottom six for cap reasons.

There’s a changing of the guard underway with Kyrou and Thomas becoming the new centerpieces of their forward group.  I think that change will continue but it will be gradual.  Once some of these longer-term contracts start to get shorter (think a couple of years from now) and become easier to move, that’s when I think we’ll start to see some more of the veteran core changing up.

DonnieBaseBallHOFer: How surprising is it that Fletcher still with the Flyers? If he is allowed to make moves at the deadline, doesn’t that pretty well mean he stays even into next season? Not fair to a potential new GM to let Fletch make any moves now…is Briere ready to take the next step? If so, do they risk losing him to another team by sticking with Fletch now?

I’m not that surprised that Chuck Fletcher is still at the helm for Philadelphia.  This season hasn’t been pretty but injuries certainly haven’t helped things which could be a factor.  It’s also year one of a coaching change.  To me, the fact the team allowed Fletcher to give John Tortorella a four-year, $16MM contract means they still had a lot of faith in him at that time.  They’re six points out of a playoff spot despite not having Sean Couturier, Ryan Ellis, and Cam Atkinson all season long.  I don’t think there’s a big appetite internally to change things as a result.  I wouldn’t say Fletcher has a long leash but I don’t think there will be any restrictions on him at the deadline.

As for Daniel Briere, I don’t think the Flyers are at much risk in terms of losing him.  Yes, he was in the mix for Montreal’s job last season but they’re a team that places high importance on speaking French which doesn’t give them a deep pool to choose from.  Since then, I don’t think Briere has been a serious candidate for the few openings that have come up.

He’s still pretty inexperienced in the NHL in terms of management.  He has been a consultant for a year and a half and a special assistant for a year and a half.  Sure, some experience building up ECHL Maine from the ground helps but is he a little too green to take over a team?  I think other organizations think he is.  Give it a year or two, then he should come up in speculation a bit more.  Who knows, perhaps at that time, Fletcher moves up to Team President and Briere takes over as GM, something we’ve seen other organizations do?  I’m sure that’s not your favorite scenario but unless this team completely nosedives next season, I wouldn’t be shocked if it happened.

mhaftman7: The Flyers DESPERATELY need to go all in on a rebuild. Is Provorov to the Kings for a package including Byfield realistic? Could Hayes, JVR, Konecny, and Ristolainen all be moved?

On paper, I like the fit of your trade idea.  Ivan Provorov would certainly fill a need in Los Angeles and while his value is down, so too is Quinton Byfield’s so it’d be an interesting buy-low move on both sides assuming the other pieces are in place to make the money work (and we’d be talking about needing to match his $6.75MM contract, more or less).  Is it realistic right now?  I’m not so sure.  I think the PR element from what happened last month during Philadelphia’s Pride Night is going to come into play in trade talks.  On top of that, these types of trades are likelier to happen at the draft or in the summer than they are now.

As for the need to do a rebuild, I don’t disagree.  At best, this is a team that’s spinning its wheels.  But a healthy Couturier and Atkinson (I’ll leave Ellis out as who knows if he’ll play again) probably get this team a few more points in the standings and then they’d be right in the Wild Card battle.  I don’t see a big blow-it-up scenario happening as a result.

But let’s look at your trade options.  Kevin Hayes has too pricey of a contract to move.  Same for Rasmus Ristolainen.  At best, they’re summer swaps for other expensive deals but I expect them to stay put.  I think James van Riemsdyk goes with 50% retention for a draft pick.  Travis Konecny though, that one’s tricky.  If they intend to go for the playoffs next season, he stays.  If they actually consider taking a step back though, this is a sell-high situation for someone in the prime of his career with two years left after this on what’s looking like a team-friendly $5.5MM.  I wouldn’t put him in the likely-to-be-dealt category but in the back of my head, he’s an interesting dark horse candidate.

NYRFan 2: The Rangers NEED to get more ❤️ not prettier. Any chance they package some younger talent like Hajek, Robertson, Jones, or Blais and a pick or so for players like Jeannot (who is struggling) and Xhekaj who plays a game Jeff Gorton hates? Instead of multiple firsts and talent for a rental when I don’t think we are there yet. Need guys to hammer pucks and bodies!

Let’s look at your trade chips first.  Libor Hajek’s trade value right now is next to non-existent.  He can’t go to the minors and hasn’t played well enough to stay in the lineup which has limited him to just ten games.  He’s a throw-in piece at this point.  So is Sammy Blais who is basically salary ballast.  Matthew Robertson still has some value but he’s not a headliner in a move for an impact player.  Zachary Jones could be though.  I think his value is down a bit this year but there will be rebuilding teams that look at him and think there’s a spot on the depth chart.  Jones, a pick, and one of the throw-ins is a package that could be of some interest to fill a need in the coming weeks.

That said, I don’t think Nashville has any interest in selling low on Tanner Jeannot and that trade combo as a result would certainly be selling low.  I could see a scenario where Montreal considers moving Arber Xhekaj as they have a lot of left-side depth in their defenseman pipeline but that would be to fill another organizational need, not replacing him with another left-side defender in Jones.

Maybe it’s just me but I don’t look at New York’s back end and think that they need more toughness.  Adam Fox is a finesse player, sure, but there isn’t anyone else that I’d put in that category.  (Ryan Lindgren isn’t the most physical but he’s capable of playing a hard game.)  I think they need an 18-minute player to partner with Braden Schneider, one that can kill penalties and move up if injuries arise.  That player doesn’t really profile as the intimidator that you’re aiming for.

Offensively, I think they should be targeting someone that can score as the Rangers have a middle-of-the-pack attack.  A key top-six addition could push them closer to a top-ten offense which, coupled with Igor Shesterkin, would make them very dangerous heading into the postseason.  They could benefit from adding a heavy player in the bottom six (preferably one that could kill penalties) but you’ll need to set your sights lower than Jeannot.

koz125: I’m embarrassed to be a Penguins fan at the moment. Shouldn’t they just start the rebuild with how terrible GMRH has screwed the team over? Obviously, they’re no longer a serious contender and likely not a playoff team either.

On the surface, it’s one thing to say they should start the rebuild.  But how exactly do they do that?  Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang, and Evgeni Malkin aren’t going anywhere; even if Pittsburgh wanted to move them, I think they’d invoke their no-trade protection.  That’s a sizable chunk of their veteran core right there which makes a full-scale rebuild a lot harder to do.

Could they move Jeff Petry?  Sure.  Jake Guentzel would fetch a nice return as well.  But Bryan Rust probably isn’t movable with his long-term contract and lower production.  Rickard Rakell has had a nice year but his up-and-down track record will give teams pause, especially in the current cap environment.  Jason Zucker would bring back a draft pick at the deadline as a rental so I suppose that’s something but that’s not moving the needle much.  Brian Dumoulin has had a tough year so his value isn’t great and I think if they could have moved Marcus Pettersson by now, he’d be playing somewhere else.  That doesn’t leave them much of tradable options in terms of their core (or at least higher-priced) players.

This is probably going to sound a little goofy but staying on the current path might make more sense.  If you can’t rebuild properly, why go halfway and sit in the mushy middle of non-playoff teams?  If the other veterans don’t want to move or can’t be moved, they can’t really do a full-scale rebuild.  I agree that this team isn’t a contender but they’re close enough to the playoffs to justify staying the course for now.

It’s not a great spot to be in but quite frankly, none of their options are ideal at this point – do nothing, take a step back to become a non-playoff team that’ll finish 12th in the conference, or spend to try to sneak into a Wild Card spot.  If they fall out of the race a bit more in the coming weeks (Tristan Jarry’s injury will play a role there), then sure, flip Zucker and get a future asset for someone that you’d otherwise lose for nothing.  But that’s about the only rebuilding move I can see them making over the next few weeks.

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Trade Deadline Primer: Chicago Blackhawks

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With the All-Star break now upon us, the trade deadline looms large and is just over a month away. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Chicago Blackhawks.

Just like the Anaheim Ducks, who we covered yesterday, the aim for Chicago is to lose as many games as possible down the stretch. The coaching staff won’t be trying to lose, meaning the front office will have to do the work for them by stripping the roster of as much NHL talent as possible.

That doesn’t mean just older players on expiring contracts, either. General manager Kyle Davidson has made it clear with the trades of Alex DeBrincat, Brandon Hagel, and Kirby Dach that he’s gutting this team before building it up with the players he chooses. Contract term or youth doesn’t mean off-limits for the Blackhawks, who are one of the most interesting teams to watch over the next few weeks.

Record

15-29-4, 8th in the Central

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$16.06MM today, $26.77MM in deadline space, 0/3 retention slots used, 44/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: CHI 1st, TBL 1st, CHI 2nd, TBL 2nd, CHI 3rd, DAL 3rd, CHI 4th, CHI 5th, CHI 7th
2024: CHI 1st, TBL 1st, CHI 2nd, VAN 2nd, CHI 3rd, OTT 3rd, CHI 5th, CGY 5th, CHI 6th, CHI 7th

Trade Chips

All eyes are on Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, who are coming to the end of their matching eight-year, $84MM contracts. Both have full no-movement clauses, meaning they can control their destiny, and both have $10.5MM cap hits with barely any actual salary left to pay out. These are two Blackhawks legends who have won three Stanley Cup championships, multiple individual awards, and have never suited up for another team.

In a normal situation, it would be easy to assume they re-sign and spend their entire careers in Chicago. But this isn’t a normal situation, and it appears that new homes are coming for them one way or another. If it’s going to come in the summer anyway, perhaps Kane and Toews agree to help the franchise they have dedicated themselves to for so long, and waive their protection to bring assets back to the Blackhawks. But they won’t be easy trades to pull off given those massive cap hits.

Beyond the two franchise icons there are a number of other pieces that should be in play. Max Domi and Andreas Athanasiou signed one-year, $3MM deals last summer that immediately looked like deadline bait, while defensemen like Connor Murphy and Jake McCabe have seen their names in trade rumors. The latter two both have significant term left on their contracts (Murphy is signed through 2025-26 and McCabe through 2024-25), making them a little more complicated than a deadline rental deal, but could still be strong additions for contenders looking to beef up the back end.

What about Stanley Cup champion Jack Johnson, who is on an expiring deal of his own? Or Sam Lafferty, signed through next year at a reasonable amount and enjoying a nice season in Chicago?

Other potential trade chips: D Ian Mitchell, G Alex Stalock, F Philipp Kurashev

Team Needs

1) Draft picks: The Blackhawks aren’t trying to rebuild on the fly. They don’t need NHL-ready talent. It’s all about the draft, and how they can build up a class of players to support what will likely be several top-five picks over the next few years. If they can secure the next potential Kane and Toews – Connor Bedard and Michael Misa, for instance – they’ll need to find all the support players that are required to really contend. That’s what you can get at the deadline, and that’s what they’ll be after.

2) Potential flips: Don’t think that Chicago didn’t notice the way the Arizona Coyotes had dealt with a player like Shayne Gostisbehere. They had cashed in when acquiring him, and were about to cash in again at the deadline, had he not been injured. Acquiring a good player on a bad contract (along with a sweetener) just to turn around and sell him down the road after powerplay time boosts his numbers? Sounds like a recipe for success, and exactly the kind of opportunity that the Blackhawks front office will be looking for.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Poll: Will The Buffalo Sabres Make The Playoffs?

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The Buffalo Sabres are no strangers to hot starts that fade quickly. Despite being among the league’s best well into November multiple times over the past few seasons, the franchise has still failed to make a playoff appearance since 2011.

2022-23 seems to have a different vibe for Buffalo, though. The team sits eighth in the Eastern Conference by points percentage at the end of January, with teams over halfway through their regular-season schedules. They’ve surged past an injury-laden Washington Capitals squad to sit in playoff positioning, and they’ve kept pace ahead of other up-and-coming Atlantic Division teams like the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators.

With 33 games left to play in their season, though, can they keep up their play?

Buffalo hasn’t exactly been a model of consistency for defensive play, but that was never the expectation for such a young team. While they sit among the bottom third of teams in terms of goals against, their 185 goals scored rank third in the NHL at the time of writing.

Their patchwork goaltending tandem of 41-year-old Craig Anderson and career backup Eric Comrie raised many eyebrows at the beginning of the season. Now, it’s turned into a more capable trio, including the 23-year-old Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. He’s started 20 games in Buffalo this year, the most among all Sabres netminders and his .900 save percentage is in line with the league’s average. Anderson, while he hasn’t played often, has exceeded all expectations with a .918 mark in 16 games.

Buffalo already has four 20-goal scorers, with Tage Thompson (34), Alex Tuch (23), Victor Olofsson (23), and Jeff Skinner (20) leading the way. Thompson, Tuch, Skinner, and Rasmus Dahlin all produce over a point per game. 21-year-old Dylan Cozens is enjoying a true breakout campaign with 43 points in 48 games. 20-year-old Owen Power is near the top of the Calder Trophy conversation and is playing more than any other rookie defenseman this year, averaging 23:39 per game.

There are many reasons to be optimistic. But with such an inexperienced and young team, along with the franchise’s recent history of disappointment, there are obviously questions about sustainability.

However, many questions can also be raised about their competitors for Wild Card positioning in the Eastern Conference. Alarm bells are sounding in Pittsburgh, as the Penguins have won just three games in regulation since Christmas. Similar concerns can be had about the aging Capitals, who are cooling off after a December hot streak and continue to encounter injury news at an uncomfortable pace.

Both the Red Wings and Florida Panthers, their closest Atlantic Division threats, have dipped into negative goal differential territory and have hovered close to the .500 mark for most of the past couple of months. It still may be premature to discount the Panthers, considering their tantalizing scoring depth on paper, but they also haven’t been able to keep the puck out of their own net with any consistency this year. Unlike other teams in the conversation, Florida also has no salary cap flexibility to add at the trade deadline.

That’s one area where Buffalo shines. Despite being in playoff position, Buffalo has the most cap space of any NHL team. While some may argue it would be premature for general manager Kevyn Adams to ship out assets at this year’s March 3 trade deadline, a non-rental addition could help solidify Buffalo’s already impressive core for future seasons.

So, we ask you, PHR readers: can the Buffalo Sabres hang on and make their first playoff appearance in 12 seasons, ending the NHL’s longest active drought? Make your voice heard by voting in the poll below.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Seeking Writers For Pro Hockey Rumors

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Last year around this time, Pro Hockey Rumors put out a call for new writers. We were lucky enough to find two excellent candidates and grow the PHR family with the addition of Ethan Hetu and John Gilroy. Now, with the calendar turning to 2023, we’re looking to grow our staff again.

PHR is looking to hire part-time writers with strong evening and weekend availability. The position pays on an hourly basis.

Applicants must meet all of the following criteria:

  • Exceptional knowledge of all 32 NHL teams, with no discernible bias.
  • Knowledge of the salary cap, CBA, and transaction-related concepts.
  • At least some college education.
  • Extensive writing experience, with professional experience and a background in journalism both strongly preferred.
  • Keen understanding of journalistic principles, ethics, and procedures. Completion of basic college-level journalism classes is strongly preferred.
  • Attention to detail — absolutely no spelling errors, especially for player and journalist names.
  • Ability to follow the site’s style and tone.
  • Ability to analyze articles and craft intelligent, well-written posts summing up the news in a few paragraphs. We need someone who can balance quick copy with thoughtful analysis. You must be able to add value to breaking news with your own insight, numbers, or links to other relevant articles.
  • Familiarity with Twitter, Tweetdeck, and other relevant platforms. In general, you must be able to multitask.
  • Flexibility. You must be available to work on short notice.

If you’re interested, email prohockeyrumorshelp@gmail.com by Friday, January 27, and in a few paragraphs, explain why you qualify. Be sure to attach your resume to the email.

We understand that many of those who read this have applied in the past. If you have previously submitted an application for PHR and are still interested, please submit it again. Many will apply, so unfortunately we cannot respond to every applicant.

(Update: With recent developments for Vox Media and SB Nation affecting many hockey writers, we have re-opened the application process for another week.)

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Ottawa Senators

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2022-23 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Ottawa Senators

Current Cap Hit: $79,572,602 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Mark Kastelic (one year, $821.7K)*
F Shane Pinto (one year, $925K)
D Jake Sanderson (two years, $925K)
F Tim Stutzle (one year, $925K)*

*-Have already signed a second contract

Potential Bonuses
Pinto: $600K
Sanderson: $925K
Stutzle: $2.5MM
Total: $4.75MM

Pinto is healthy after missing almost all of last season due to a shoulder injury and he’s off to a decent start with ten goals already.  That also has him on track to hit one of his ‘A’ bonuses worth $150K each but a small uptick in production could add to that total.  With a limited track record (he had just 17 games in his first two seasons), he might be tricky to lock up long-term; a bridge deal in the high-$2MM/low $3MM range depending on the term is where he could wind up.  We’ll look at Stutzle and Kastelic’s new deals later on but it’s worth mentioning that Stutzle is on pace to hit all four of his ‘A’ bonuses which are worth a total of $850K.  Ottawa will need to budget room for that to hit the books after the season if they look to add a piece to help them get back into the playoff picture that pushes them closer to the cap.

Sanderson’s first professional season has gone quite well as he has very quickly become one of their most trusted blueliners.  He’s someone that they’re likely going to want to sign to a long-term second contract as well and optimistically, if he follows the same path as Thomas Chabot, a deal around his $8MM might be possible.  He’s tracking towards reaching all four of his ‘A’ bonuses as well.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

D Erik Brannstrom ($900K, RFA)
F Derick Brassard ($750K, UFA)
F Alex DeBrincat ($6.4MM, RFA)
F Dylan Gambrell ($950K, RFA)
D Travis Hamonic ($3MM, UFA)
D Nick Holden ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Tyler Motte ($1.35MM, UFA)
G Cam Talbot ($3.667MM, UFA)
F Austin Watson ($1.5MM, UFA)

DeBrincat was Ottawa’s first big splash this past offseason as they picked him up from Chicago on draft day.  He is a bargain from a cap perspective relative to his output with the Blackhawks but that’s about to change.  He’s subject to the old qualifying offer rules which means his $9MM salary this season also represents his qualifying offer.  At that point, he’ll also have salary arbitration eligibility for the first time and be a year away from UFA eligibility.  GM Pierre Dorion made the move with the hope that he’d be able to get the 24-year-old to commit to a long-term extension.  Such a move is going to cost somewhere around that qualifier on a max-term agreement which would make him the highest-paid player on the team.

Watson hasn’t been able to get back to the goal totals he had with Nashville but he has been a regular on Ottawa’s fourth line for the past two-plus seasons while providing them with plenty of grit.  He’s near the ceiling of what a player in that role can typically get on the open market but another contract around this price range is doable.  Motte didn’t get the contract offers he was looking for early in free agency and had to eventually settle for this one-year deal.  His production has been limited early on so instead of perhaps looking more favorably on the type of offer he turned down in July next summer, his next deal might also check in around this price point.

Gambrell is a serviceable fourth liner but he hasn’t brought much more to the table beyond the ability to cover eight to ten minutes per game.  This isn’t overly pricey for someone in that role but his arbitration eligibility could work against him next summer as it’s unlikely they’ll want to give him that option.  Accordingly, an early contract around this price tag like they did last offseason could happen once again.  Otherwise, he’s a non-tender candidate.  Brassard had to settle for a PTO, one that he got converted into a full contract.  He’s giving the Senators a pretty good return on that early on but at this point of his career, he’s likely to be in the six-figure or PTO range on any future contracts.

Hamonic is no longer the core stay-at-home defender he was with the Islanders but he’s a reliable veteran in his own end that can still be effective on the third pairing and penalty kill.  There’s still a role for those types of players but he’ll be hard-pressed to make this much on the open market next summer.  Holden has had a much more limited role this season which is closer to the role he has had for long stretches of his career – more of a prototypical sixth defender.  At 35, it’s hard to envision a multi-year agreement coming his way and teams feel that he is starting to slow down, he might have to accept a bit less than his current price tag.  Brannstrom wanted a multi-year deal in the summer but it failed to materialize.  It seems unlikely that they’ll get one done in 2023 as well as his playing time has been considerably more limited.  With arbitration rights, he should be able to get a bit more than his $945K qualifying offer but it should be another short-term agreement since he still hasn’t been able to establish himself as a productive option on Ottawa’s back end.

Talbot was acquired from Minnesota to try to shore up the goaltending and while he got off to a bit of a tough start with injuries not helping things, he has settled in nicely as their starter.  However, he’ll turn 36 just after free agency opens up and a long-earned reputation as more of a platoon player is going to still exist.  There’s still some room for a small increase – a two-year deal around the $4MM range is certainly possible – but a long-term deal that makes him a concrete starter isn’t likely to happen.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Parker Kelly ($762.5K, RFA)
D Nikita Zaitsev ($4.5MM, UFA)

Kelly has become a capable fourth liner that kills penalties and plays with a physical edge and even while he doesn’t produce much offensively, he still provides a fair bit of value as someone that’s on a minimum contract.  Assuming he stays in that role through next season, Kelly should be able to jump past the $1MM mark with arbitration rights but his limited production will certainly limit his earnings upside.

Zaitsev is a contract the Sens are very much interested in moving.  He cleared waivers already this season and it’s likely he’ll be back on there at some point.  He can still fill a limited role if need be but players like that are typically closer to the $1MM mark, not four times that amount.

Signed Through 2024-25

G Anton Forsberg ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Claude Giroux ($6.5MM, UFA)
F Mark Kastelic ($821K in 2022-23, $835K in 2023-24 and 2024-25, RFA)

Giroux opted to head home in free agency on what amounts to a bit of a team-friendly deal for someone that’s still capable of playing on the top line when needed.  He has fit in nicely in a secondary scoring role and is giving them a good return so far.  However, he’ll be 37 when this contract is up so his next one, if there is a next one, is quite likely to check in considerably cheaper than this one.  Kastelic has become a serviceable fourth liner and having one of those that doesn’t make much more than the league minimum is always good.  If he sticks in that role throughout the contract, he’ll position himself to get past the $1MM mark with arbitration rights in 2025.

Forsberg had a strong showing in 2021-22 and really gave Ottawa some stability between the pipes.  He was rewarded for his efforts with this deal, one that will hold up well as long as he’s able to play in a platoon and put up reasonable numbers.  Those numbers aren’t as good so far this season but relative to the rest of the league, he has been close to average which, for this price tag, isn’t a bad return.  He didn’t have a long track record when he signed this contract but that should change after this one.  If Forsberg does well in this role, he could add another million or more even as a platoon goalie on the open market.

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