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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Toronto Maple Leafs

February 25, 2023 at 12:03 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

Over the past several months, PHR has looked at every NHL team and given a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2022-23 season and beyond.  This is the final piece of the series.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Current Cap Hit: $88,851,650 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Pontus Holmberg (one year, $827.5K)
F Nicholas Robertson (two years, $796.7K)

Potential Bonuses
None

Robertson has been viewed as one of Toronto’s top prospects for a few years now.  However, injuries have limited him significantly in the pros and he’s out for the rest of this season after undergoing shoulder surgery.  The Maple Leafs frequently use bridge contracts and he’s a very strong candidate to get one.  If he returns to health and produces, it could be around the $1.5MM mark but it’s likely to come in below that.  Holmberg fit in nicely in Toronto’s bottom six and is playing his way into consideration for a full-time spot beyond this season although he’s back in the minors for the time being.  Even so, with their cap situation and Holmberg’s limited NHL experience, a short-term bridge deal around the $1MM range is where his next deal should fall.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Noel Acciari ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Joey Anderson ($750K, RFA)
F Zach Aston-Reese ($840.6K, UFA)
D Jordie Benn ($750K, UFA)
F Michael Bunting ($950K, UFA)
F Pierre Engvall ($2.25MM, UFA)
D Justin Holl ($2MM, UFA)
F David Kampf ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Alex Kerfoot ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Victor Mete ($750K, RFA)
F Ryan O’Reilly ($1.875MM, UFA)*
G Ilya Samsonov ($1.8MM, RFA)
F Wayne Simmonds ($900K, UFA)

*-St. Louis is retaining 50% of O’Reilly’s cap hit ($3.75MM) and Minnesota is retaining an additional 25% ($1.875MM).

Kerfoot’s hold of a roster spot in Toronto has seemingly been in question for about three of his four years with the team but it’s not because he has a bad contract by any stretch.  He’s on pace to push for 40 points again which, coupled with his ability to play center and the wing, should have him earning another million or so on his next deal, one that’s likely to be for more years than this four-year agreement he’s finishing now.  Engvall is a capable depth forward but hasn’t shown the ability to produce consistently.  Since he doesn’t kill penalties too frequently either, his market might not be the strongest.  He could get something close to this amount but not considerably higher.  Kampf isn’t much of a scorer himself but with him being good on faceoffs and killing penalties, there should be a market for him that should land him a multi-year deal closer to the $2MM (or even $2.5MM if enough teams show interest.).

Then there are the newcomers.  O’Reilly has had a tough year this season but has a long and proven track record as a key two-way player.  At 32, he still should be able to land a sizable agreement on a multi-year deal but it’s likely to be for at least a couple million less than his base $7.5MM AAV unless he has a big finish to his season with Toronto; he’s off to a good start on that front.  As for Acciari, he had a nice bounce-back showing in the bottom six with St. Louis before the swap and, as a player who can hold his own on the third line or anchor the fourth, can kill penalties, plays with an edge, and win faceoffs, he’ll have a stronger market than he did last summer which should lead to a multi-year agreement and an AAV closer to the $2MM mark at least.

Bunting is going to be a particularly intriguing case to follow.  He has been one of the top bargains in the NHL these last two years, providing top-six production for depth forward money.  Even with what’s still a limited track record, there are enough comparable deals that could realistically push his asking price past the $5MM mark on a long-term agreement.  Is that one Toronto will be able to fit into their salary structure?  That’s one of the questions they’ll certainly be pondering.  Aston-Reese didn’t have a strong market last summer and likely hasn’t done enough to change that so he should stay in this price range.  Simmonds, if he plays another year, will be at the league minimum while Anderson should wind up there as well.

Holl might not be a top-end defender but he has held his own while logging around 21 minutes a night this season.  He’s also a right-shot player, the handedness that’s always in high demand.  While he was a depth defender early on in his time with the Leafs, that’s not the case now and he could add at least $1MM on his next contract which could very well price his way out of Toronto.  Benn and Mete both signed minimum deals back in July and their markets haven’t changed significantly since then.  Mete is arbitration-eligible once more but because he has 247 career games under his belt, he’s likely to be non-tendered to avoid that risk.

Samsonov chose to sign with Toronto in the hopes of rebuilding his value.  That decision has worked out rather well so far as he is staking claim to the starting role.  We’ve seen the price tag for young goalies with limited experience go up considerably lately (Samsonov has less than 130 NHL appearances even including the playoffs) and it’s plausible that his next deal could push past the $5MM mark.

Signed Through 2023-24

D T.J. Brodie ($5MM, UFA)
D Mark Giordano ($800K, UFA)
D Timothy Liljegren ($1.4MM, RFA)
F Auston Matthews ($11.64MM, UFA)
G Matt Murray ($4.688MM, UFA)*
D Jake Muzzin ($5.625MM, UFA)
F William Nylander ($6.962MM, UFA)
D Rasmus Sandin ($1.4MM, RFA)

*-Ottawa is retaining an additional $1.5625MM (25%) on Murray’s deal.

It has been widely expected for several years now that Matthews will set the new standard for the highest AAV in the NHL when he signs his next contract.  It’s not a matter of if he’ll pass Nathan MacKinnon ($12.6MM starting next season) but by how much.  He has been the top goal-scorer in the NHL in the past two seasons and even in a bit of a down year this season, he’s still averaging over a point per game.  Matthews will hit the open market at the age of 26 when he’s clearly in the prime of his career.  Top centers rarely make it to free agency and if he’s going to be the rare exception, there will be plenty of interest, even at a record-setting price tag.

What happens with Matthews could very well dictate if Toronto can afford to re-sign Nylander as well.  He cracked the 80-point mark last season for the first time and is playing at a 95-point pace this year.  One more season around that type of production and it’s quite possible that the AAV on a max-term deal for him will push past the $10MM plateau as well.  Even if there’s a jump in the Upper Limit by then, keeping both players will be tricky.

Muzzin has spent most of the season on the injured list and there are questions about his ability to return, not only this year but beyond that.  He has been ruled out for the rest of 2022-23 as expected, but unless they know that Muzzin isn’t coming back period, any other moves they make will also be limited to rentals.  At this point, it doesn’t seem likely that the veteran will be able to command anywhere near this type of money if he is able to come back.  As for Brodie, he continues to be a mobile and steady veteran that can kill penalties, log big minutes, play on both sides, and chip in with a few points.  Nothing flashy but that type of role is one that’s always in demand.  He’ll be 34 when he hits the open market but even so, a deal similar to his current one (four years at $5MM per season) could be doable.

Sandin showed a fair bit of offensive upside in the past and slowly but surely, he’s starting to produce a little more in Toronto.  He’s on his bridge deal now, one that carries a $1.6MM qualifying offer.  Assuming he continues to develop and starts to push his way into more playing time, he should be able to more than double that with arbitration rights.  Liljegren is in a very similar situation although his offensive upside hasn’t been viewed as high as Sandin’s.  But otherwise, both players are gradually improving and are trending toward eventual top-four roles.  Liljegren’s qualifier checks in at $1.5MM next summer and he, too, should double that at least if he continues to progress.  Giordano accepted a contract that was well below market value to stay with his hometown team.  If he was to sign another deal, it’d be for his age-41 season and at that point, he’s likely to be around the minimum salary once again.

Murray has had flashes of dominance mixed in with struggles and injuries which is what happened in his previous stops with Ottawa and Pittsburgh as well.  When he’s on his game, he’s a capable starting goaltender but the inconsistency will hurt him.  When he signed this contract, Murray was viewed as a goalie on the rise.  That shouldn’t be the case in 2024 where he’s likely to be viewed as more of a mid-tier netminder.  The market rate for those types of players is closer to the $4MM range.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Mitch Marner ($10.903MM, UFA)
F John Tavares ($11MM, UFA)
D Conor Timmins ($850K in 2022-23, $1.1MM in 2023-24 and 2024-25)
G Joseph Woll ($767K, RFA)

Tavares certainly hasn’t played poorly since joining Toronto as he’s averaging just under a point per game in his five seasons with the team but that’s not a great return on one of the priciest UFA deals in NHL history either.  The flattened salary cap – something that couldn’t have been foreseen at the time this deal was signed – has also exacerbated the effect of this contract on their cap situation.  That all said, he’s still a very important piece for the Maple Leafs but if he’s going to sign a second contract with the team, it will need to be for considerably less than this to fit what their financial outlook is likely to be if they keep their other core pieces.

Marner has been one of the top-scoring wingers in the league for the last several seasons.  Over the last five years, only one – Artemi Panarin – has more points than he does.  With the cap set to be higher in 2025, it stands to reason that he could take aim at setting the new benchmark for a contract for a winger; Panarin checks in at $11.643MM.  Marner will be 28 when this contract kicks in so it’s pretty much a lock that he’ll be securing a max-term agreement if he wants it on the open market.

Timmins was picked up early in the season from Arizona and has done quite well in a limited role which earned him the extension earlier this month.  If he can lock down a full-time spot and continues to produce, his next contract could be more than double what he’ll start getting next season.

Woll doesn’t have much NHL action under his belt but with two years left at an AAV that will be below the league minimum next season, he’s the odds-on favorite to be the backup at some point during that stretch.  Exactly when that permanent promotion comes will go a long way toward determining how much his next contract will be.  If he’s established by then, it could be as high as the $3MM range.

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Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

Calle Jarnkrok ($2.1MM through 2025-26)
D Morgan Rielly ($7.5MM through 2029-30)

Jarnkrok joined Toronto last summer in a move to shore up their forward depth with the hopes that he could shift between the second and third lines.  He has done well in that role and while the term of the deal is probably a bit longer than they would have liked, the cap hit is bit below market value so there’s a fair trade-off.

Rielly inked this max-term agreement back in 2021 and then went and had a career season, making it look like a potential bargain as long as he produces at that level.  (He hasn’t so far in 2022-23.)  He’s not a typical number one defender in that he doesn’t log 25 minutes a night but with Toronto allocating so much of their money up front, they can’t really afford that type of true number one either.  He’s likely to be the top earner on the back end for the Maple Leafs for most of this contract.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Bunting
Worst Value: Tavares

Looking Ahead

In the short term, once Murray comes off LTIR, Toronto will quickly be approaching a money-in, money-out situation.  Of course, their big deadline splash has already happened so anything else is going to be on the depth side of things in all likelihood.

Long-term, their books are relatively clean in terms of having few lengthy commitments, at least for the time being.  Bunting, Matthews, Nylander, Marner, and Tavares will all be in line for pricey agreements over the next few summers and even with what’s expected to be a higher salary cap by then, keeping most (or all) of those players will keep the Maple Leafs right against the Upper Limit for years to come.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive 2022| Toronto Maple Leafs Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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Trade Deadline Primer: Ottawa Senators

February 24, 2023 at 8:07 pm CDT | by Josh Cybulski Leave a Comment

The trade deadline looms and is now just a week away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Ottawa Senators.

After a flurry of high-profile acquisitions in the summer of 2022, expectations were that the Ottawa Senators would compete for a playoff spot. This didn’t look very likely as the calendar flipped to 2023, but a 7-2-1 run in their last ten games has brought them back to life. The Senators haven’t made the playoffs since their miracle run in 2017, but now sit within six points of the final wildcard spot in the jam-packed Eastern Conference.

While the fans in Ottawa have reason to be excited about the future, the team’s recent success has put GM Pierre Dorion in a precarious position as he enters the final week before the NHL trade deadline.

Record

27-25-4, 7th in the Atlantic

Deadline Status

Unclear

Deadline Cap Space

Current cap space $17.89MM, Deadline cap space $20.87MM, 1/3 retention slots used, 44/50 Contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: OTT 1st, OTT 4th, OTT 5th, OTT 6th, OTT 7th, NSH 7th, NYR 7th

2024: OTT 1st, OTT 2nd, WSH 2nd, OTT 4th, TB 4th, OTT 5th, OTT 6th

Trade Chips

The biggest asset the Senators have at the trade deadline is cap space. Ottawa is one of the few teams who can add significant salary this season. This opens up endless possibilities for Dorion to get creative to facilitate a blockbuster trade, take on bad contracts, or act as a middleman and retain salary to acquire more assets.

In terms of on-ice assets, the Senators do have a few UFA veterans who could be of interest to teams that are looking to shore up their depth.

Cam Talbot has had a forgettable first season in Ottawa. Between injuries and poor play, he has significantly hurt his stock as he heads to free agency this summer. He was acquired last July from the Minnesota Wild in a goalie swap for Filip Gustavsson. Since the trade, Gustavsson has flourished in the Twin Cities, while Talbot has failed to find his game. This has led to Talbot being mentioned on trade rumor boards for over a month. Talbot may not fetch the Senators much more than a late-round pick, but could be of interest to teams looking to add a veteran backup.

On the backend, Travis Hamonic could interest teams looking for a depth defenseman who can kill penalties. Hamonic has averaged over 19 minutes of ice time per game this season, and while he won’t chip in much offensively, he can be a steadying force for a young defenseman. Hamonic is a pending UFA and could likely be had for a mid-round pick should GM Pierre Dorion opt to sell in the final days before the trade deadline.

One last piece that could be of interest to teams looking to add toughness is Austin Watson. The former Nashville Predator has just six points this season in 52 games, but any acquiring team wouldn’t be adding the former first-round pick for his offensive game. Watson has 63 PIMs this season and has been one of a handful of veterans tasked with mentoring a young Ottawa Senators forward group. Watson could likely be had for a late-round pick should a team look to add toughness.

Other potential trade chips: D Nick Holden, F Derick Brassard

Team Needs

1) Top-four Defenseman: Ottawa has long sought a right-shot top-four defenseman to pair with Thomas Chabot or Jake Sanderson. It was rumored last summer that Dorion inquired about Pittsburgh defenseman John Marino before he was dealt to New Jersey. Although he is not a right-shot defender, Jakob Chychrun is a name that has long been rumored to be on Dorion’s radar. But a move has yet to be made as Arizona has held onto the player in hopes of having their high price tag met.

2) Starting Goaltender: Ottawa hasn’t had stability between the pipes since Craig Anderson took them to within a goal of the Stanley Cup Finals in 2017. While Anton Forsberg had a career year last year, his numbers fell off a cliff this season, leading to another year of instability in the Ottawa crease. The Senators do see 22-year-old Mads Sogaard as their goaltender of the future, however injuries and uneven play have stunted his young career. The 6-7 netminder has shown promise in limited NHL action, but with the Senators moving out of the rebuilding phase, it may be time to acquire a stable NHL-ready starting goaltender.

Deadline Primer 2023| Ottawa Senators Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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Trade Deadline Primer: Colorado Avalanche

February 23, 2023 at 8:21 pm CDT | by Ken MacMillan 2 Comments

The trade deadline is inching closer and is now just over a week away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Colorado Avalanche.

Following a Stanley Cup win in 2021-22, expectations were high once again for the Colorado Avalanche this season. However, some key offseason departures headlined by Nazem Kadri and a plethora of injuries have the Avalanche further back in the standings than expected. They have been playing better lately, but are barely hanging on to a playoff spot in the Western Conference.

An 11-2-2 run in their past 15 games has put them back into a playoff spot, and as the defending Stanley Cup champions, they are sure to be looking to add to the roster before the deadline. Once healthy, they will have one of the most dangerous lineups in the Western Conference, giving them a chance to make another deep postseason run this spring.

Record

31-19-5

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$6.45MM in LTIR relief, 0/3 retention slots used, 44/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: COL 1st, Col 5th, COL 6th, COL 7th

2024: COL 1st, COL 4th, COL 6th, COL 7th

Trade Chips

The Avalanche have traded a lot of their draft pick capital in past seasons, but do still hold all of their own first-round picks. That will allow them to get in on some of the big names as we head toward the trade deadline on Mar. 3. The biggest obstacle in their way is the salary cap.

Gabriel Landeskog has not played a game yet this season and he sits on long-term injured reserve. If the Avalanche get news that he will remain there until the end of the regular season, they can replace his $7MM cap hit and really swing for the fences at the trade deadline in hopes of a repeat.

If they are going to make a big addition, their future first-round picks would need to be put in play. Having traded many of them in recent years, the Avalanche do not have the deepest prospect pool in the league, but they do have a few young players to offer as trade bait.

Alex Newhook would net the biggest return but he is already a full-time NHL player. If the Avalanche want to make a big trade, teams will be asking about the 2019 first-round pick. Newhook has 12 goals and 20 points in 55 games, but rebuilding teams would be interested in adding the 22-year-old center.

Sean Behrens was the Avalanche’s second-round pick in 2021. The two-way defenceman is having a second strong season for the University of Denver. He has three goals and 20 points in 27 games this season after putting up three goals and 29 points in 37 games as a Freshman in 2021-22. Behrens represented USA at the past two World Junior Championships, scoring a combined three points in eight games. Justin Barron was moved in a trade last season that brought back Artturi Lehkonen and helped put the Avs over the top. Behrens would have similar value on the open market right now.

Jean-Luc Foudy is one of the few young players having an impact season for the AHL’s Colorado Eagles. He was a third-round pick of Colorado in the 2020 NHL Draft and has 11 goals and 31 points in 36 AHL games this season. He is a 20-year-old right-shot center who would have plenty of interest from rebuilding teams.

Other Potential Trade Chips: Oskar Olausson, Matthew Stienburg, Ryan Merkley

Team Needs

1) Second-Line Center: The Avalanche were hopeful that Newhook would step into the second-line center role that was vacated by Kadri when he signed with the Calgary Flames. While Newhook is a skilled young player, he isn’t the ideal fit as a second center on a contending team right now. If Landeskog can eventually return from his injury, he joins Mikko Rantanen, Valeri Nichushkin and Lehkonen as a dangerous group of top-six wingers. Nathan MacKinnon is obviously the team’s number one center, but they could use an upgrade in the middle of the second unit.

2) Defensive Depth: A team with Cale Makar, Bowen Byram, Devon Toews, Samuel Girard, Josh Manson and Erik Johnson should not need help on the back end. However, injuries have sabotaged what should be the best group of blueliners in the league. Makar is currently out with concussion symptoms, Byram has been limited to 17 games this season, Manson has suited up for just 23 contests and Johnson is on injured reserve. A big name defender is not likely to be on the shopping list, but some depth to fill in for the injured players would be a nice addition.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Colorado Avalanche| Deadline Primer 2023 Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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Trade Deadline Primer: Minnesota Wild

February 23, 2023 at 3:57 pm CDT | by Brennan McClain 4 Comments

The trade deadline looms and is now less than two weeks away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Minnesota Wild.

After yet another first-round exit during the 2021-22 NHL playoffs, the Minnesota Wild are poised to return this season. Unfortunately, their Stanley Cup hopes have ended quite early, having failed to reach the second round since the 2014-15 season and failing to reach the Conference Finals since 2002-03. Although a deep run in the playoffs has eluded the Wild for many years, they finally have produced a young, homegrown NHL superstar to build around. The Russian-born Kirill Kaprizov cracked the 100-point plateau during his age-24 season last year and is projected to fall near it once again.

Under GM Bill Guerin, Minnesota didn’t make a significant acquisition at the deadline until last season. Adding legendary goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury from the division-rival Chicago Blackhawks and shoring up the back-end with the trade for Jacob Middleton from the San Jose Sharks. However, the elephant in the room is the dead cap left behind in the wake of buying out forward Zach Parise and defenseman Ryan Suter. This season, those players have accounted for $12.7MM in dead cap space for the Wild, and it will increase to $14.7MM for the 2023-24, and 2024-25 NHL seasons. With this in mind, it is safe to assume the Wild will be looking at short-term additions to the lineup this trade deadline season as they are once again looking to make a run in the playoffs.

Record

31-21-5, 4th in Central

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$10.04MM in full-season cap space today, $11.95MM at the deadline, 1/3 retention slots used, 44/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: MIN 1st, MIN 2nd, MIN 4th, MIN 5th, MIN 6th, MIN 7th

2024: MIN 1st, MIN 2nd, MIN 3rd, MIN 4th, MIN 5th, MIN 6th, MIN 7th

Trade Chips

After an incredible 50-point season in 2017-18, it was no surprise the Wild opted to extend defenseman Mathew Dumba with a five-year, $30MM contract. Unfortunately for both he and the team Dumba hasn’t quite regained form from that year. Failing to score more than 30 points in a season since, Dumba and the Wild appear headed toward a split. Nearly every season since that contract was signed, Dumba has found his name in the trade rumors.

After being healthy-scratched twice this season, the Wild could look to recoup some assets instead of losing to Dumba in free agency. It is hard to imagine Dumba being at the top of any team’s trade list this season, but for those teams that are in on Erik Karlsson, he might come as a consolation prize as a right-handed shooting defenseman.

If the Wild are going to look past rental options, and try to squeeze a player into their long-term approach, one of the more interesting prospects in their system is Carson Lambos. A second-round draft pick of the Wild during the 2021 NHL Draft, Lambos has scored 43 points in 46 games for the Winnipeg Ice in the Western Hockey League this season. Although many teams would highly regard a player like Lambos, he could become an attractive trade chip for the Wild.

Currently, the Wild have four defensemen on their roster signed beyond next season. Calen Addison has had an impressive 27 points in his first full NHL campaign, so it is safe to assume the Wild will look to resign him this summer. As Lambos’ time in the WHL comes to a close, the Wild may be unable to give him the minutes a player of his caliber might otherwise receive.

An off-the-radar trade piece the Wild have at their disposal is goalie Filip Gustavsson. After acquiring Gustavsson from the Ottawa Senators, Gustavsson has impressed with a 15-8 record and a .928 SV% splitting time between the pipes with Fleury. As young goalie Jesper Wallstedt continues to improve with Minnesota’s AHL affiliate Iowa Wild, Minnesota must decide how he fits into their future. Because of Fleury’s age when he signed his most recent contract with the Wild, he will be incredibly challenging to move given his 35+ NMC included in his contract. As the cap crunch continues next year for Minnesota, they simply may not be able to afford what Gustavsson will want on his next contract.

Other Potential Trade Chips: Dakota Mermis (D), Brandon Duhaime (F), Danila Yurov (F)

Team Needs

1)  Top-Six Winger: After placing fifth in GF/G with 3.72 during the 2021-22 NHL season, the Wild have dropped to 25th in the same category this year. Because of the dead cap space from recent buyouts, the Wild have a Kevin Fiala-sized hole in the lineup this season. As the defense has continued to be a strength, and the goaltending has rebounded from a lousy start to the year, it has become imperative that the Wild add a goal-scoring forward at the deadline to continue their hopes of a long playoff run.

Two of the most obvious choices are off the board in Vladimir Tarasenko and Bo Horvat, so the crop to choose from has become smaller for the Wild. If Minnesota looks at rentals, there are still a couple of goal-scorers on the market. Philadelphia Flyers forward James van Riemsdyk comes to mind as an obvious fit for Minnesota. He would add to their crop of large and imposing forwards who excel at putting the puck in the net. Due to their recent trade activity at last year’s deadline, it would not be a shock to see the Wild engaged with the Blackhawks on their upcoming UFA Patrick Kane. Although Kane must approve of his new destination, his goal-scoring capabilities are ideal for the Wild. Aside from rentals, if they can make room in their near-to-long-term plans, Brock Boeser is an interesting player to consider as well. A native Minnesotan, Boeser has shown incredible flurries of goal-scoring in his career, and currently finds himself on a rebuilding team in the Vancouver Canucks.

2) Long-Term Cap Flexibility: Acknowledged as a bold move at the time, the buyouts of Parise and Suter still loom large over the brass of the Minnesota Wild. Accounting for just over 15% of the Wild’s overall cap space, this dead cap has prohibited the Wild from adding more talent around young superstar Kaprizov. This problem will persist until after the 2024-25 season when the dead money drops considerably. The Wild will have to get extremely creative over the next several seasons to retain some of their up-and-coming players. Having already locked up core pieces such as captain Jared Spurgeon, Joel Eriksson Ek, Matt Boldy, as well as Kaprizov, the Wild and GM Guerin are up to the task of adding more talent around this group.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Deadline Primer 2023| Minnesota Wild Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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Trade Deadline Primer: Los Angeles Kings

February 21, 2023 at 8:01 pm CDT | by Ethan Hetu 10 Comments

The trade deadline looms and is now less than two weeks away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Los Angeles Kings

The rebuild is over in Los Angeles. After a three-season stretch where the Kings languished near the bottom of the standings, the Kings climbed out of the basement last season, making the playoffs for the first time under head coach Todd McLellan. While they would fall to the Edmonton Oilers in a hard-fought seven-game series, the team left the 2021-22 season highly encouraged about the future of their franchise. So far this season, the Kings have largely supported that attitude with quality play.

The Kings are just a point behind the Vegas Golden Knight for first place in the Pacific Division. Centerpiece offseason acquisition Kevin Fiala has fit in about as well as anyone could have imagined. He’s leading the team with 61 points in 57 games, and behind him, the Kings have a balanced group of scorers led by franchise legend Anze Kopitar, two-way force Phillip Danault, a now-extended Adrian Kempe, and a resurgent Drew Doughty, among others. This is a team that has been ramping up for true contention for quite a bit of time now, and might just be ready to take their first big swing.

Record

32-18-7, 2nd in the Pacific

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$2.81MM in current space, $3.51MM in deadline space, 0/3 retention slots used, 46/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: LAK 1st, LAK 2nd, LAK 3rd, PIT 3rd, LAK 4th, LAK 5th, LAK 6th
2024: LAK 1st, LAK 2nd, LAK 3rd, LAK 4th, LAK 5th, LAK 6th, LAK 7th

Trade Chips

The most obvious of the Kings’ trade chips can be identified by taking just a quick look at the team’s cap sheet. Goaltender Cal Petersen is currently playing in Ontario, with Los Angeles’ AHL affiliate, and is costing the Kings $3.875MM against the cap, which is the value of his $5MM cap hit once the Kings “bury” it in the AHL. the issue is, since the deal has two years left after the conclusion of this season, moving Petersen is easier said than done.

There aren’t many teams across the NHL who can afford to take in money with term without moving money out to match. We saw this last summer when the Montreal Canadiens dealt Jeff Petry to the Pittsburgh Penguins and received Mike Matheson in return, with Canadiens GM Kent Hughes later commenting on the fact that it was next to impossible to find a suitable deal for Petry without taking a contract back.

Those kinds of deals can be exceptionally difficult to complete in the middle of a season, so while it seems likely that the Kings would love to deal Petersen before the deadline, it seems highly unlikely that they’d actually be able to find a suitable trade. His .868 save percentage this season and .895 last year is simply too big of a cloud over his head for him to be a simple player to move.

If the Kings want to acquire a significant player to add to their lineup for the rest of this season and beyond, they’ll likely need to pull from a well-stocked prospect cupboard. A few names stick out in that regard, and no, the Kings probably won’t be trading top prospect Brandt Clarke, despite some earlier reports. Instead, a prime candidate to be moved from the Kings’ prospect pool appears to be 2019 fifth-overall selection, Alex Turcotte. The aggressive, pace-pushing forward has struggled with injuries and underperformance since turning pro after one season at the University of Wisconsin, and he has thus far been unable to break into the NHL in the way other 2019 lottery picks have.

Perhaps a team that had Turcotte high on their draft board in 2019, a team that still believes in his upside, would be willing to prioritize acquiring Turcotte when dealing with Los Angeles. It’s worth noting here in terms of potential interest that Kirby Dach, once a fellow underperforming top 2019 draft pick, net his former club the 13th overall pick at the 2022 draft via trade, and now Dach is flourishing with his new club.

At this trade deadline, the Kings could look to follow that model with Turcotte, except with the return likely coming in the form of a useful player rather than a top draft choice.

Other Potential Trade Chips: D Tobias Bjornfot, D Sean Durzi, C Tyler Madden, D Helge Grans

Team Needs

1) Left-Shot Defenseman: While most might look at the performance of the Kings’ goalies and say that that position is undoubtedly their top need, 31-year-old Pheonix Copley just signed a contract extension and has a 17-3-1 record this season. While the Kings should definitely explore upgrades in the crease, it feels that upgrading the left side of their defense should be the more pressing priority. The team’s current stable of left-handed blueliners is extremely thin behind the underrated Michael Anderson. Their top two left-shot options behind him are 36-year-old veteran Alexander Edler and Tobias Bjornfot, who is still largely unproven. Adding a capable top-four (or better) left-shot blueliner would do wonders for the overall makeup of their lineup. And for those who’d prefer a new goalie, adding to the Kings’ defense will also help their goalies as well.

1) A Quality Goalie: As mentioned, Copley has stolen the show in Los Angeles with his impressive record through 23 games. But if the Kings want a legitimate chance to win the Stanley Cup, they might want a more reliable face in their crease beyond a player with 54 games of NHL experience and Jonathan Quick, who for all his accomplishments is 37 years old and has an .878 save percentage this season. Netminders such as Joonas Korpisalo, Semyon Varlamov, Cam Talbot, or even Karel Vejmelka could be available and each would present a solid investment for a team with a shaky-at-best situation at the game’s most important position. The Kings have made a deadline-season goalie acquisition before, and it didn’t work out well for them, but they can’t let that history stop them from making what would likely be a very helpful addition this time around.

Pictures courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Deadline Primer 2023| Los Angeles Kings Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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Trade Deadline Primer: New Jersey Devils

February 20, 2023 at 7:53 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 8 Comments

The trade deadline looms and is now less than two weeks away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the New Jersey Devils.

After a disappointing 2021-22 campaign that saw New Jersey finish just two points out of last in the Metropolitan Division and 37 points out of a playoff spot, expectations weren’t particularly high heading into 2022-23.  Sure, GM Tom Fitzgerald made a few moves to shore up the roster but making up that type of deficit in a single season just doesn’t happen very often.

The Devils, however, will be one of the exceptions to that thought as they are in the mix for first in the division and are comfortably ahead in the Wild Card standings as well.  They’ve become one of the top-scoring teams in the league while also being one of the stingier defensive ones which is a great combination to have.  As a result, it’s safe to say that they will be adding to their group in the coming days.

Record

37-14-5, 2nd in the Metropolitan

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$2.93MM in LTIR relief, 0/3 retention slots used, 44/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: NJ 1st, NJ 2nd, NJ 4th, NJ 5th, NJ 6th, NJ 7th
2024: NJ 1st, NJ 2nd, NJ 3rd, NJ 4th, NJ 5th, NJ 6th, NJ 7th

Trade Chips

Let’s start with an easy one.  Andreas Johnsson has spent most of the season in the minors thanks to a $3.4MM AAV that is a bit on the high side.  While he doesn’t have much in the way of standalone value – he has cleared waivers twice this season after all – he’s a strong candidate to be included as salary ballast if the Devils bring in a pricey upgrade.

While many teams will be focusing on rentals that will be eligible for unrestricted free agency this summer, there is an expectation that New Jersey is open to bringing in someone that could be part of their longer-term future.  Those players often come with high price tags so young winger Alexander Holtz is sure to grab some attention.  Things haven’t gone according to plan for him this season as he has seen limited action in the NHL and hasn’t been able to produce much.  However, he’s only in the first year of his entry-level deal so the seventh-overall pick in 2020 still has plenty of runway left in his development.  Moving Holtz would certainly sting but it stands to reason that if he goes, they’d be getting a critical win-now piece in return.

The Devils are facing a decision this summer when it comes to Mackenzie Blackwood.  The netminder has shown flashes in the past but has struggled once again this season and has fallen behind Vitek Vanecek on the depth chart.  His qualifying offer of $3.36MM might be too much for them to tender so it’s possible that he could be included as salary ballast as well to facilitate a trade.  A team or two might want to take a closer look at him as well to see if he could be part of their plans beyond this season.  The Devils have Nico Daws and Akira Schmid in the minors who both have NHL experience or they could turn around and add another veteran netminder if they were to part with Blackwood.

As for some other prospects that could go, defenseman Nikita Okhotyuk could draw some interest.  The 22-year-old has seen NHL action in each of his first two seasons and plays with the type of physical edge that could have some teams wondering if he could fit on their third pairing down the road.  Forward Graeme Clarke is having a breakout season with AHL Utica and at 21, his stock is on the rise.  In a smaller move, he’d be a forward that teams will likely be calling about.

Other Potential Trade Chips: F Nolan Foote, F Nikola Pasic, F Tyce Thompson, D Reilly Walsh

Team Needs

1) Top-Six Winger: There’s a reason New Jersey has been linked to some prominent forwards, they’re looking to add an impact piece.  Ondrej Palat has been injured for most of the season and has been inconsistent when he has played.  Dawson Mercer, Tomas Tatar, and Yegor Sharangovich are holding their own in the top six but pushing more of them onto the third line would deepen their attack.  There’s a definite spot to fill and it could go a long way toward making their forward group even more potent heading into the postseason while taking some pressure off Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier.

2) Defensive Depth: While it’s widely expected that the Devils will sign Luke Hughes once his college season is finished, the back end of their back end isn’t the deepest.  Okhotyuk and Kevin Bahl have both seen action this season and the underlying numbers haven’t been great.  Adding a veteran sixth defender would give them some insurance in case of injuries and if it’s a stay-at-home defender, it could also give them a chance to mix and match a little bit depending on their opponent.  There’s a good chance that the bulk of their cap space will be used to add up front which should have Fitzgerald shopping in the lower-cost options in the coming days.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Deadline Primer 2023| New Jersey Devils Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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Trade Deadline Primer: Montreal Canadiens

February 19, 2023 at 7:55 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 4 Comments

Halfway through February, the trade deadline looms and is just a few weeks away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Montreal Canadiens.

This season was supposed to be another transition one for Montreal after finishing last in 2021-22.  While the team has a few more points than some may have expected, they remain a team that’s squarely in the middle of a rebuild so that has gone as planned.

What hasn’t gone as planned is their injury situation.  The Canadiens are missing numerous regulars at the moment including a pair of veterans that were perceived as their top trade assets.  A return to action for those players in the next ten days or so could get them back on the radar but otherwise, it could potentially be a much quieter deadline for them than originally expected.

Record

23-29-4, 8th in the Atlantic

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$4.54MM in LTIR relief, 0/3 retention slots used, 46/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: FLA 1st, MTL 1st, MTL 2nd, MTL 3rd, MTL 4th, PIT 4th, VEG 4th, CGY 5th, MTL 5th, MTL 6th, MTL 7th
2024: MTL 1st, COL 2nd, MTL 3rd, MTL 4th, MTL 5th, MTL 6th, EDM 7th, MTL 7th

Montreal also has Calgary’s 2025 first-round pick which, through a series of conditions, could transfer in 2024 if it falls between 20 and 32 and the Canadiens elect to take it.  It could take until 2026 to be conveyed.

Trade Chips

All season long, Sean Monahan has been an expected trade chip.  When healthy, he is a capable middle-six center that can play both the power play and penalty kill.  The problem is that staying healthy has been a problem.  He suffered a foot injury in early December and was only expected to miss a few weeks originally but it is now two months and counting.  If he can get back playing, there will be some suitors as long as Montreal can retain 50% of his $6.375MM AAV.  However, it’s likely that the draft pick being offered will be a fair bit lower than the Canadiens were originally hoping to get and it would be prudent for them to try to put a condition in there based on games played.  If that’s the case, it’s possible that GM Kent Hughes flips the script and tries to work out a short-term extension with the 28-year-old.

Veteran defenseman Joel Edmundson has also been in trade speculation for a while.  He isn’t a rental as he has another year left on his contract with a $3.5MM AAV, a price tag that’s reasonable for someone that can log 20 minutes a night.  His physicality and ability to kill penalties would also be appealing, as would his playoff experience which includes two runs to the Stanley Cup Final since the 2018-19 campaign.  However, he has been dealing with recurring back injuries and that’s likely to deter someone from giving up a strong return unless he’s able to get back to action soon and be no worse for wear.  This might be a situation where the Canadiens opt to hold onto him for next year and try to get a better return for him as a rental.

Montreal also has a couple of pricey rental veteran forwards in Evgenii Dadonov ($5.5MM) and Jonathan Drouin ($5MM) that they will be willing to move.  Dadonov was traded at the deadline last season but the deal was eventually vetoed due to his no-trade clause and instead, he went to the Canadiens for Shea Weber’s contract last summer.  He has struggled this season (although he has seven points in his last 12 games) and at best, they’d be looking at a late-round pick with salary retention.  Drouin is in a similar situation and has struggled to put the puck in the net; his last goal came on January 1st, 2022.  That said, he has a dozen assists in his last 14 games.

In terms of other forwards with term that could go, Mike Hoffman ($4.5MM through next season) and Joel Armia ($3.4MM through 2024-25) are players they’d likely be willing to move.  However, with them being signed beyond this season, it seems likelier that any move they could make would be a lateral swap for a similar-priced contract, not one to necessarily add pieces for their rebuild.

Other Potential Trade Chips: F Paul Byron (LTIR contract), D Chris Wideman

Team Needs

1) Young Goaltending: Carey Price’s playing days are all but over and they have an NHL tandem that isn’t the greatest.  In the prospect pipeline, Cayden Primeau has shown flashes of upside but he’s far from a guarantee to be an NHL netminder.  The Canadiens have some late-round picks performing well at lower levels but they’re a few years away still.  A prospect that’s a bit closer to being NHL-ready would fill in a bit gap in their prospect pool.

2) AHL Help: With Montreal currently missing so many players, their organizational depth is being tested.  If they do move some veterans out, there will be roster spots that need to be filled and if those are covered by players currently in the minors, those spots will then need to be back-filled.  (Alternatively, they could agree to take some expiring veterans back and keep their current players in the minors.)  This isn’t a big priority in the grand scheme of things but with the Canadiens not having a lot of quality trade chips and the likelihood that their heavy lifting will come in the offseason instead, this is something that they can realistically strive for in the next couple of weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Deadline Primer 2023| Montreal Canadiens Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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Trade Deadline Primer: Vancouver Canucks

February 18, 2023 at 11:02 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

Halfway through February, the trade deadline looms and is just a few weeks away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Vancouver Canucks.

While it wouldn’t be fair to say there were high expectations for Vancouver heading into the season, there were certainly some hopes that they’d be able to pick up where they left off after a strong second half in 2021-22.  With Bruce Boudreau back for a full season, the team would be better offensively, Thatcher Demko would continue to be a strong starter, and things would be looking up.

Suffice it to say, that hasn’t happened.  Boudreau was recently fired after months of speculation with Rick Tocchet taking over while Demko was having the worst season of his career before being injured, turning things over to a pair of AHL goaltenders.  The end result is that they’re one of the worst teams in the league defensively and with one big move made already – Bo Horvat to the Islanders – the selling-off process is well underway.

Record

21-30-4, 6th in the Pacific

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$7.62MM in LTIR relief, 1/3 retention slots used, 47/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: NYI 1st*, VAN 1st, VAN 2nd, VAN 3rd, NYR 4th, VAN 4th, VAN 6th
2024: VAN 1st, VAN 3rd, VAN 4th, VAN 5th, VAN 6th, VAN 7th

*-Pick is top-12 protected in 2022-23 and becomes an unprotected pick in 2024 if it doesn’t convey this season.

Trade Chips

There has been no shortage of speculation surrounding defenseman Luke Schenn in recent weeks.  The veteran has been a capable defensive piece on the third pairing over the last two seasons while being one of the most physical players in the league.  He’s also extremely cheap as his $850K cap hit is just $100K above the minimum salary.  Accordingly, this is a contract that pretty much everyone can afford without necessarily needing retention or salary offsets, elements we’re going to see come up frequently over the next couple of weeks.  Schenn has indicated that he’d like to stay in Vancouver but they’re likely to get a high enough draft pick that they’ll opt to move him.

Also on the back end, Tyler Myers is another player who has been in trade speculation for a little while.  Unlike Schenn, he’s not a rental (signed through next season) and certainly isn’t cheap with a $6MM AAV and a 10-team no-trade clause.  He’s still capable of logging top-four minutes and in a swap of underperforming change-of-scenery veterans, there’s a move to be made with him.  Another defenseman, Travis Dermott, is one to keep an eye on.  Injuries and struggles have limited him to just 11 games so far.  Owed a $1.75MM qualifying offer this summer, that’s a price that’s likely more than they’re willing to pay so if there’s a team that wants the 26-year-old as extra depth, it’s hard to imagine the Canucks passing up the opportunity to pick up a late-round pick there.

Up front, Brock Boeser is someone to keep an eye on.  Things have not gone well for him this season but he has scored more than 20 goals in four of the last five years and likely would have gotten there in the year he didn’t had it not been for the pandemic-abbreviated schedule.  There are teams that certainly could use him in their top six but with a $6.65MM price tag through 2024-25, fitting him into a contender’s cap structure will be tough.  If they’re willing to retain salary though, there’s a chance he could be on the move as well.

Conor Garland is having a decent season and should reach 39 points for the fourth year in a row.  However, he has taken a bit of a step back from last year and with the additions of Andrei Kuzmenko and Ilya Mikheyev last summer and the acquisition of Anthony Beauvillier in the Horvat trade, Vancouver has a surplus of wingers.  Garland carried some decent trade value back with Arizona but how much will his contract (which runs through 2025-26 at a $4.95MM AAV) change things?  Again, retention might be necessary to facilitate a move or at least take a similarly-priced player back.

Other Potential Trade Chips: G Collin Delia, F Micheal Ferland (LTIR contract), D Jack Rathbone, D Riley Stillman

Team Needs

1) Picks and Prospects – This one is pretty obvious for a team that’s heading for a rebuild.  Vancouver hasn’t had more than six picks in the last three years and has only picked twice in the top 75 over that span.  Their prospect pool isn’t the deepest as a result and needs to be built back up.

2) Cap Flexibility – At the moment, Vancouver has just over $80MM in commitments for next season while still needing to fill out a few roster spots.  Even as a seller, they need to open up some room simply to be able to afford to ice a full team next season.  Moving out one of their pricier contracts (Myers, Garland, or Boeser) would go a long way toward giving them some much-needed wiggle room.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Deadline Primer 2023| Vancouver Canucks Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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Trade Deadline Primer: Buffalo Sabres

February 15, 2023 at 3:00 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 9 Comments

Halfway through February, the trade deadline looms and is just a few weeks away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Buffalo Sabres.

For all the fans that want to point to Jack Eichel as the problem, it was going on long before he arrived. It’s been a decade since the Buffalo Sabres had a winning season. Finally, it appears that that streak will end, and the players involved deserve a reward.

The young group in Buffalo has shown flashes of real brilliance, starting with Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin. There’s optimism that they can even compete for the playoffs this year, and finally won’t be acting as the sellers they’ve been for so long.

Record

26-22-4, 5th in the Atlantic

Deadline Status

Opportunistic buyers

Deadline Cap Space

$58.23MM today, $80.4MM in deadline space, 0/3 retention slots used, 42/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: BUF 1st, BUF 2nd, PHI 2nd, VGK 2nd, BUF 4th, BUF 5th, BUF 6th, BUF 7th

2024:BUF 1st, BUF 2nd, BUF 3rd, BUF 4th, BUF 5th, BUF 6th, BUF 7th

Trade Chips

You’re not reading that incorrectly. The Sabres could (technically) add more than $80MM in cap hits at the deadline. That’s what happens when you spend the entire season flirting with the salary cap floor. Even next season, when they have big-money extensions kicking in for Thompson, Dylan Cozens, and Mattias Samuelsson, they still have less than $60MM committed and nearly an entire roster signed.

That means the old favorite phrase will be thrown around in the coming weeks. You guessed it, the Sabres can weaponize their cap space. They can play middleman for other transactions, they can bring on bad money to facilitate added value, and they can get involved in basically every bidding war imaginable.

That’s not to say they will, but cap space in itself is a precious asset for NHL teams.

Beyond that, those three second-round picks look like the perfect pieces to be involved in a deal. This isn’t a team that should load up by spending top prospects and picks on a bunch of rentals. They’re not good enough to do that yet. But targeting the next tier of available players with a second (or two), and then using the cap space to re-sign them? That sounds like a winning plan to support the development of your young core.

Even some of those younger players could be dangled in the right deal. Casey Mittelstadt hasn’t worked out as planned, even if he does have a career-high 31 points this season. The eighth-overall pick from 2017 is signed for next year at a reasonable $2.5MM, but leaves you wanting more almost every night.

Peyton Krebs has been much the same since arriving in the Jack Eichel trade, though he is quite a bit younger than Mittelstadt. If he had to be used as a piece to get a more dominant top-six forward, especially one with term, it might make sense for the Sabres to pull the trigger.

One interesting name to consider, perhaps next trade deadline more than this one, is Victor Olofsson. The 27-year-old has an excellent 23 goals in 52 games, but never quite grew into the role that they hoped he would as a play-driving option. For instance, Olofsson is averaging less time at even strength than JJ Peterka, but makes up for it with his regular powerplay minutes. Given he is only signed for one more year, there’s no guarantee that he is part of the long-term plan in Buffalo, or just benefiting from a lack of experienced scoring options at the moment.

Other trade chips: G Eric Comrie, D Ilya Lyubushkin, D Kale Clague

Team Needs

1) Top-six winger: This is where the opportunistic part comes in. Buffalo should be involved in talks for some of the big names, including Timo Meier, as an opportunity to add an impact player to the group. In Meier’s case specifically, they could absorb the $10MM qualifying offer, but long-term extensions are also possible for Buffalo no matter who they acquire. Captain Kyle Okposo may be a good option to bring back on a cheaper deal, but he shouldn’t be relied on as the team’s fourth-best winger anymore. Landing a big name will let the likes of Peterka, and Quinn develop on their own schedule.

2) Third-line center: On a contending team, Mittelstadt probably isn’t the answer as the third pivot. Sure, the Sabres have other top prospects like Noah Ostlund and Matthew Savoie coming, but getting a veteran two-way player to support Thompson and Cozens would put them so far ahead of the curve. The return of Ryan O’Reilly seems unlikely, but there could be other opportunities out there to upgrade that spot if they want to take a swing this year.

(Bonus need) Veteran defense: If there’s one area that the Sabres are probably going to do just fine in the long term, it’s on the back end, with Dahlin and Owen Power anchoring two top-tier pairings. But if there is a real desire to compete for the playoffs this year, adding some veteran experience to the back end is a must. Grabbing a rental, preferably right-handed, just to beef up the depth will go a long way to letting the next 30 games be as impactful as the first 50.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Buffalo Sabres| Deadline Primer 2023 Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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Trade Deadline Primer: Dallas Stars

February 13, 2023 at 4:15 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 6 Comments

With the All-Star break now behind us, the trade deadline looms large and is just a few weeks away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Dallas Stars.

Usually, when a team is leading an entire conference 50+ games into the season, there is more chatter about them adding significant talent at the deadline to go on a long Stanley Cup run. But the Stars, sitting first in the West with 70 points, are somehow usually still left out of the conversation.

Fans and media are focused on what the Edmonton Oilers, Colorado Avalanche, or Winnipeg Jets may be up to. Dallas slowly hides in the shadows with a team that could rival anyone in the league. Over the next few weeks, that could change, with the Stars emerging as one of the most exciting deadline teams to watch, given a reasonable cap situation and interesting prospect pool.

Record

30-14-10, 1st in the Central

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$1.15MM today, $1.64MM in deadline space, 0/3 retention slots used, 47/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: DAL 2nd, DAL 4th, DAL 5th, DAL 6th, DAL 7th

2024: DAL 1st, DAL 2nd, DAL 3rd, DAL 5th, DAL 6th, DAL 7th

Trade Chips

When the Stars traded a first-round pick for Nils Lundkvist in September, it removed their most significant chip for this season. Without a 2023 first to give up, it isn’t easy to get involved in some of the biggest deadline names. Bo Horvat and Vladimir Tarasenko, for instance, both returned first-round selections for the Vancouver Canucks and St. Louis Blues, with names like Timo Meier expected to do the same.

But the interesting side effect of adding Lundkvist was how it clogged the path for some other defense prospects in the organization. The assumption when Dallas let John Klingberg go last summer was that Thomas Harley would likely establish himself as a full-time NHL defenseman this season, taking some of the easy minutes that Klingberg had been given in the past. But Harley, the 18th overall pick from 2019, has spent the entire season in the AHL with the Texas Stars.

Lian Bischel, their 2022 first-round pick is even further down that depth chart, and will have a number of players to leapfrog before he sniffs NHL minutes. He isn’t even signed at this point, meaning there are still years until he makes an impact.

Either of these defense prospects could be flipped in a deal, given Dallas has five defensemen signed through next season and looks like a legitimate contender this year.

A forward prospect like Mavrik Bourque could be dangled, too, after his first minor league season has been just okay. That likely isn’t the case with Wyatt Johnston, who has made an NHL impact as a rookie and looks like a long-term building block for the group, or Logan Stankoven, who was recently ranked ninth overall among drafted prospects by Scott Wheeler of The Athletic.

One interesting name is Denis Gurianov, who continues to frustrate the organization. The talented 25-year-old forward has moments of pure brilliance when he looks like a dominant NHL player. That’s how he scored 20 goals as a sophomore and nine more in the bubble playoffs as Dallas went to the Stanley Cup Final.

But his game is just rife with inconsistency, leading to regular scratches and just two goals in 38 games this season. The 12th overall pick from 2015 might be an interesting reclamation project for a rebuilding club, though it’s hard to see someone pay a premium for him at this point.

(As an aside, this isn’t the first time a big, talented winger has frustrated the Stars front office. After Valeri Nichushkin failed to score a single goal in the 2018-19 season he was bought out by Dallas, only to find an organization in Colorado that would patiently develop him into one of the best two-way forwards in the league. Gurianov certainly doesn’t look like that right now, but neither did Nichushkin during those frustrating years.)

Other trade chips: F Ty Dellandrea, F Christian Kyrou, G Anton Khudobin

Team Needs

1) Top-six forward: Even with the return of Jamie Benn as a top-end player and Tyler Seguin’s recovery from injury going better than many imagined, the Stars could still use a little bit of punch upfront. The nice part about this is the versatility that some of their players bring, meaning it could be any of the three forward positions they add. If Mason Marchment had brought last season’s scoring touch with him, this might not be an issue, and Johnston could be an internal option for more offensive minutes.

But adding a difference-maker from outside the organization seems the most likely outcome for Dallas at the deadline if they’re willing to part with the assets to get one.

2) Defensive depth: Defense? Didn’t we just finish saying how Dallas has a full blueline? Well, yes – but if the team isn’t comfortable with Harley as the next man up for this playoff run, it might make sense to add another depth piece. The kind of veteran player who can step in and give you 12-15 hard, mistake-free minutes is a valuable thing to have at playoff time, and if they aren’t making a big splash up front, Dallas might pivot to defense.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Dallas Stars| Deadline Primer 2023 Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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