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Trade Candidates: Thomas Vanek

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With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that are likely to be dealt by March 1st.

The Detroit Red Wings are staring at the possibility of trading assets away instead of buying them up. After decades of acquiring top end talent, the Red Wings are now considering their options once the trade deadline hits. Will they deal talent away for prospects and picks? Or will they hold onto everyone, trying for a 26th consecutive playoff appearance? One player who could yield quite the return is Thomas Vanek.

Contract

One year, $2.6MM – Will be a UFA in July

2016-17

After a disappointing tenure in Minnesota, Vanek was cut loose via a buyout. The Red Wings signed him to a one-year deal worth $2.6MM, hoping that Vanek would show flashes of the player who had a nose for the net. So far, the gamble paid off. Vanek has been Detroit’s best forward all season, and has been one of the best scoring threats for the team–especially one struggling mightily on the power play. The Red Wings are reportedly on the fence about what to do–re-sign Vanek or trade him while his stock is high. Vanek is currently out, though he’s day-to-day with a lower body injury.

Season Stats

36 games: 12 goals, 19 assists, 31 points. 51.1 CF%, +6, 14:54 ATOI.

Potential Suitors

The Red Wings’ decision making won’t be cemented until they reach their bye-week, which is only a week before the actual deadline. Vanek comes at a great price, instead of having a bloated contract, an issue with many players on the Detroit roster. What Vanek could garner from another team depends on where he goes and how the market reacts with other players.

Chicago, who kicked the tires on Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar, would seem to be the best landing place for Vanek. Though Chicago is steadfast in holding onto its’ first round pick due to hosting the draft, there are a number of prospects in the system that could help Detroit, especially defensively. They could also offer future first round picks–along with prospects–to give them a solid scoring punch at left wing. Though the Hawks are always in a tight spot with the cap, Stan Bowman is not one to shy away for a chance at the Cup.

The Ottawa Senators are also an option as they’re searching for scoring. Currently sitting second in the Atlantic, the Sens could use another player with a scoring touch to add scoring depth in the conference that many believe will win a Cup again. The Sens might be willing to give up a first round pick for a scorer, as reported by TSN’s Frank Seravalli.

Likelihood Of A Trade

Again, everything depends on where the Wings sit in the standings. Ken Holland is notorious for “liking his team” or stating that players returning from injury are like adding at the trade deadline. Holland will push for the playoffs as long as the team plays its way to a spot, but with just a 13% chance of making the playoffs, Vanek may find himself in another jersey when the calendar turns to March.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Tampa Bay Lightning Deadline, Expansion Notes

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The Tampa Bay Lightning have had a ton of success the past few seasons, winning at least 46 games three straight seasons and making a Stanley Cup final in 2015. Today, they find themselves in last place in the Atlantic division and one point out of the bottom of the conference. They’re 2-7-1 in their last 10, and haven’t been able to find any consistency at either end of the ice.

When looking at the rest of their season, it’s not all bad. Despite being close to the bottom of the conference, they’re also just four points back of the Maple Leafs for the last wildcard spot (though they’ve played 48 games, four more than the Leafs). They should get Steven Stamkos back at some point, though depending on when he returns (likely mid-March) it may be too late.

When looking at their roster, they have very few expiring deals to sell off at the deadline. Ben Bishop would be a big chip, though most Cup contenders already have a #1 installed firmly in net. He’s also struggled through inconsistency and injury this season, making him a hard player to value for the back half of the season. Brian Boyle is a UFA this summer, and while he’s have a nice season he likely isn’t the 20 goal scorer he once was for New York. He’d be attractive to some teams to plug into a bottom-six, but wouldn’t bring much back.

The biggest problem for the Lightning though may be the upcoming expansion draft, where they will have a tough time protecting their current assets up front.  Since Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Ryan Callahan and Valtteri Filppula all have no-movement clauses and come with automatic protection, the team has just four forward spots left to protect.

Nikita Kucherov and Jonathan Drouin are locks to be protected, meaning there are two slots left for the crop of forwards including Alex Killorn, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, and Vladislav Namestnikov among others (many, many others). Losing one of those players for nothing would be a questionable move, meaning GM Steve Yzerman may be busy in the next month positioning his team better for the draft.

Adding a defenseman is a big need for the Bolts, and if they could find one that is exempt from the draft (meaning a young, first or second year player) it would be advantageous. Johnson could likely have fetched a huge price two years ago coming off his 29-goal, 72 point 2014-15, but after the struggles last year and a perceived step backwards defensively it may be selling low on him. He’s an RFA again this summer meaning he’ll be looking for a big-money deal, but perhaps the team could get a better price after letting him play out the rest of the regular season and (hopefully) topping the 50 point mark once again.

Killorn just signed a new deal this summer that locked him up for seven years, which may scare some teams off after a sluggish first half. Palat, though also not having a huge year probably has a bigger upside than Killorn and is two years younger. Though he’s also up for a new deal this summer as an RFA, the Lightning would likely need a big offer to pry him away.

If the team still thinks that it can compete in the Eastern Conference playoffs once Stamkos is back, perhaps they don’t need to sell one of their forwards for help down the line but with the draft looming and this season slipping away they may end up shipping out a well-known name.

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5 Key Stories: 1/16/2017 – 1/22/2017

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As millions of American anxiously await to find out who will represent their respective conferences in Super Bowl LI, don’t forget to check in on all of the recent news and rumors involving the NFL on our sister site, Pro Football Rumors.

The action is starting to pick up in the NHL, though it’s still relatively quiet compared to what we expect next month. Here is a roundup of the five key stories from the week ending on 1/22/2017.

Islanders Dismiss Capuano – Sitting at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings, the New York Islanders relieved head coach Jack Capuano of his duties this week and inserted AGM Doug Weight into the position on an interim basis. Capuano spent parts of seven campaigns behind the Islanders bench and guided the club to the second-round of the playoffs for the first time in more than two decades just last season.

Claude Julien’s Job in Jeopardy? – With rumors circulating as to the job security of longtime bench boss Claude Julien, the Boston Bruins called a press conference to address the situation. While nothing definitive came out of it, the belief is that Julien will maintain his position at least through the season, barring a major late-season collapse.

Clarke MacArthur Will Not Play This Season – Veteran winger Clarke MacArthur, who has yet to appear in a game this season after suffering a concussion during training camp, has not progressed enough in his recovery and a return has been ruled out by Ottawa team doctors. This will represent what is essentially a second consecutive lost season for MacArthur, who only suited up for four contests a year ago due to yet another concussion. It’s also quite possible this is the end of the line for the 10-year veteran.

Hawks Interested In Tatar, Nyquist – In search of a top-six winger to slot next to Jonathan Toews, the Chicago Blackhawks have reportedly expressed interest in Detroit forwards Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar. The report contradicts the notion that the club would restrict its pursuit to rentals or players on ELC’s. The Hawks have a number of rather large commitments already on their books for 2017-18 but apparently they would still be willing to take on a player with control beyond the current campaign. Nyquist has two seasons left on his deal with an AAV of $4.75MM while Tatar will be a RFA this summer and likely in position for a raise on his $2.75MM cap charge.

Winnipeg Recalls Ondrej Pavelec – Desperate for consistently competent play between the pipes, the Winnipeg Jets recalled deposed started Ondrej Pavelec from the Manitoba Moose of the AHL. The Jets decided had waived the veteran net minder just prior to the beginning of the campaign and assigned him to the minors when he went unclaimed. Now the team is hopeful he can provide the Jets with quality play and bolster their pursuit of a playoff berth.

The Latest On Claude Julien

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After another loss last night, this time a 1-0 shutout to the Chicago Blackhawks, Boston Bruins head coach Claude Julien found himself answering more questions about his job security. After a gut wrenching loss to the Red Wings on Wednesday night that saw the B’s squander a 4-1 lead, Julien called the latest inquiries on his job “shock journalism.” Here’s what some journalists have been saying after what CTV and TSN’s Brian Wilde tweeted to be a “ridiculous comment” from Julien.

  • The Boston Herald’s Stephen Harris writes that time is running out on a decision with Julien. It’s mistakes, after stretches of dominating play, that seems to undermine the good the Bruins are achieving on the ice.
  • Yahoo’s Jen Neale comments on the Julien “shock journalism” answer, writing that the hockey world has been looking for the  final nail in the coffin moment when it comes to Julien’s time in Boston. She adds that after his refusal to give an answer to the question, he left the media scrum.
  • ESPN’s Joe McDonald writes that Julien is not going anywhere.  He includes video of post-game interviews and also tweets that “no changes are imminent” when it comes to Julien’s job status.
  • TSN’s Travis Yost believes the Bruins would be best served by holding onto Julien. While he believes that Julien’s time is in fact “running out” in Boston, he feels that allowing him to twist in the wind is the wrong move for both Julien and the organization. Yost argues that simply firing the coach is an action, not a plan. Further, he wonders if Julien is really the problem in the first place. Could it be a failure by the front office to supply him with the right players?

Restricted 2017: Checking In On The Upcoming RFA Class

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As the NHL continues to skew towards younger and younger talent with players like Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews making an immediate impact, the restricted free agent classes become more and more important.

Last year we saw an impressive group, headlined by the dynamic duo in Calgary Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, Tampa’s new sniper Nikita Kucherov and a handful of excellent defensemen like Hampus Lindholm and Jacob Trouba.

While teams have started to lock up their young talent before they even become restricted free agents – like Aaron Ekblad in Florida who signed a $60MM deal just months after his 20th birthday – this year looks like it will be one of the biggest and most expensive RFA crops ever. Glen Miller took a look back in September at this year’s crop in an excellent series of articles that really should be consumed before reading any further (parts one, two, three, four, five and six), but let’s now check in on the group and how they’re fairing this season. Well list just a few of the highlights, as the group is almost endless.

Leon Draisaitl (EDM) – 47 GP / 17 G / 23 A / 40 P

You can’t start this list without mentioning Draisaitl, who will head to restricted free agency for the first time after what looks like a 30+ goal, 70+ point season. Skating alongside McDavid for much of the year, Draisaitl is currently tied for 18th in league scoring and leads the RFA group. He won’t turn 22 until after the 2017-18 season begins, and is an important player for the Edmonton Oilers to lock up long term. Expect the team to shell out big money to buy into a few free agent years this summer.

Mikael Granlund (MIN) – 44 GP / 10 G / 27 A / 37 P

Often forgotten about across much of the league because of the relative gag-order on any Minnesota Wild news, Granlund is having an exceptional season. Playing almost 20 minutes a night and on pace to shatter his previous career high in points, the Finnish forward will get a huge deal this summer. Unlike Draisaitl, Granlund is 24 and has already been through the RFA process before, signing a two-year $6MM deal before last season. With three solid seasons and now one spectacular one, he’ll likely earn something closer to $7MM (AAV) if signed long-term.

Justin Schultz (PIT) – 44 GP / 7 G / 23 A / 30 P

Schultz is such an interesting case, because of the breakout he’s experiencing this year. With Kris Letang on the shelf for much of the season, Schultz has blossomed in Pittsburgh to the player most teams expected when he signed out of college. He’s 26 now, and will turn 27 just days after free agency opens, but will likely fetch a hefty price as an RFA. After not even receiving a qualifying offer last year, has he done enough to prove that a big-money deal is worth it?

Robin Lehner (BUF) – 29 GP / .920 SV% / 2.54 GAA

The best RFA goaltender this year is one who just blew up at his coach after getting pulled and has generally been inconsistent for the Sabres since they traded a first-round pick for him in 2015. He has all the talent in the world to be a number one goaltender in this league, but with Buffalo floundering again near the bottom of the league will he be able to put it all together and lead them back to the playoffs? He’s 25-years old now and has 136 games under his belt with an above-average .916 save percentage. If Buffalo can ice any healthy defensemen, perhaps they’d be able to finish in the top half of the league for a change.

San Jose Sharks Send Goodrow, Heed To AHL

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After their 2-1 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday, the San Jose Sharks have sent Barclay Goodrow and Tim Heed back to the San Jose Barracuda in the AHL. The team will play the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday and again on Monday, and it’s unclear who they will bring up or replace these two with.

Both Tomas Hertl and Dylan DeMelo are expected to be out for at least another few weeks, meaning the team now has only 21 roster spots filled. Perhaps the organization just wants them to get into a couple of games, as even though the Barracuda are on the road, they’re playing two games in state. Tonight they take on the San Diego Gulls, and tomorrow the Ontario Reign. Both players could travel with the NHL squad on Sunday when they hit the road.

Heed is having an exceptional year in the AHL, scoring 32 points in 29 games from the back end. This comes in his first season in North America after coming over from Sweden. The former fifth-round pick is exceptionally undersized for a defenseman at just 5’11, 165 lbs but can do enough things right to be able to contribute at the NHL level.

Goodrow went undrafted before making an immediate impact at the NHL level in 2014-15, playing in 60 games less than a year removed from playing in junior. While he was a consistent goal-scorer for the Battalion (Brampton and then North Bay), he never projected as much of an offensive talent in the NHL. Since signing though, he’s been a fine addition to the Sharks organization, scoring in the AHL and playing solid bottom-six minutes for the NHL club when called upon.

Friedman’s Latest: Strome, Shattenkirk, Sharp, Filppula

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Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet published this week’s “30 Thoughts” column this morning and like always, it’s worth the read in its entirety. Of course the scribe touches on several trade-related topics as the calendar closes to within six weeks of the deadline. Here’s a rundown of some of the highlights from the column.

  • An NHL executive evidently felt the Islanders were recently nearing a trade of Ryan Strome but the firing of Jack Capuano may have postponed the move. In the opinion of Friedman, Isles GM Garth Snow may elect to see how Strome responds to the coaching change before moving on from their 2011 first-round draft choice. Strome, who has only 14 points in 39 games this season, has struggled in each of the last two campaigns but did tally 50 points in 2014-15 as a 21-year-old sophomore. Prior to the season, Strome inked a two-year bridge deal with an AAV of $2.5MM. Given his potential and the additional year on his contract at an affordable rate, there would likely be a number of teams in the league with genuine interest in the 23-year-old forward, should the Islanders put him on the market.
  • St. Louis Blues defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk, who is in the final year of his pact with the team, has frequently been mentioned in trade rumors going back to the 2016 draft. It’s thought the native of New Rochelle, New York, who grew up a New York Rangers fan, would ultimately choose to sign with a club on the east coast this summer as a free agent, with the Blue Shirts emerging as early favorites in that scenario. Also, it’s been reported that Shattenkirk derailed a potential offseason trade to Edmonton due to his reluctance to sign an extension with the Oilers, but Friedman wonders if he would consider a deadline deal to a playoff team in which he would see his role, and therefore potentially his free agent value, increase. Friedman mentions the Oilers and perhaps the Maple Leafs as teams who might pursue a player of Shattenkirk’s ilk as a rental to boost their postseason chances. The suggestion makes sense for the Blues as well, since the organization has fellow right-handed blue liners Colton Parayko and Alex Pietrangelo on hand to pick up the slack. St. Louis was also stung losing veterans David Backes and Troy Brouwer for nothing as free agents this past summer and may be unwilling to do the same in the case of Shattenkirk. Trading the skilled defender would allow them to add some young talent to the system while opening up additional salary cap space in the event they wish to chase forward reinforcements at the deadline.
  • With Chicago reportedly searching for a top-six winger to slot next to star center Jonathan Toews, Friedman wonders whether the club will seek a reunion with Patrick Sharp. Sharp spent nine-plus seasons with the Hawks and was part of three Stanley Cup championship teams. His familiarity with the organization would seem to appeal to Chicago GM Stan Bowman as he searches the market for scoring depth. Additionally, Sharp is in the last year of his contract and qualifies as a pure rental; something the Blackhawks would likely value given their tight salary cap situation. Of course Sharp’s $5.9MM cap charge complicates matters for Chicago, as the club is currently slated to only have roughly $3.3MM in space at the deadline. It’s conceivable, however, that Dallas would be willing to retain enough salary to make the finances work, assuming the Blackhawks made it worthwhile to do so. Sharp’s season has been marred by concussion problems and he has just four goals on the season, though two came last night in Dallas’ wild 7 – 6 win over the New York Rangers. The Blackhawks could also entertain other rental options, such as Thomas Vanek of Detroit, who has 30 points in 33 games for Detroit and carries a cap charge of just $2.6MM.
  • One unfortunate consequence of team success in the NHL is having to navigate through the resulting salary cap challenges as an organization’s younger contributors advance into free agency. Tampa Bay, who has appeared in the Eastern Conference Final in each of the past two seasons, is set to encounter that very problem this summer. Projected to have only about $12MM in cap space and with only 14 players under contract for next season, Lightning GM Steve Yzerman is going to have his work cut out for him as he attempts to find common ground on new arrangements with pending RFA’s Jonathan Drouin, Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson. If the team has any hope of extending the trio, they will inevitably have to trade a high-salaried veteran to create the necessary salary cap flexibility. Friedman believes the Lightning might be best served by moving veteran forward Valtteri Filppula and his $5MM cap charge. Filppula, who has a partial NTC, might be appealing to other teams given his ability to slot in on the wing or at center. The veteran Finn has 29 points in 44 games for Tampa Bay and could provide versatility to any number of teams with the requisite cap space to add the 6-foot, 196-pound forward. Unless Tampa Bay is well out of the playoff chase by the deadline, it’s likely the team will hang onto Filppula through the end of the season and look to move him this summer when there may be more interested suitors.

Ducks Reassign Noesen, Theodore To San Diego

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The Anaheim Ducks have reassigned defenseman Shea Theodore and forward Stefan Noesen to the San Diego Gulls of the AHL, the team has announced. Both players have already made this commute several times already this season as the Ducks take advantage of breaks in their schedule to reduce their daily salary cap commitments and bank space ahead of this year’s trade deadline.

Noesen, originally acquired by the Ducks in the Bobby Ryan trade, has appeared in just nine games this season and has tallied a single goal, the first of his brief NHL career. He was selected by Ottawa with the 21st pick in the 2011 entry draft and was shipped by the Senators along with fellow forward Jakob Silfverberg and a 2014 first-round draft choice – a pick which turned into Nick Ritchie – in the July 5, 2013 trade sending Ryan to Ottawa.

Theodore has dressed for 23 games this season for the Ducks and has registered seven points. He was drafted by Anaheim in the first round of the 2013 entry draft with the 26th overall selection. For his career, the native of Langley, British Columbia has seen action in 42 contests, recording four goals and 11 assists while averaging better than 18 minutes of ice time per game.

What’s Next For The Islanders?

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In the midst of a disappointing 2016-17 campaign, the New York Islanders made a change behind the bench yesterday, relieving Jack Capuano of his duties and turning the team over to AGM Doug Weight on an interim basis. The team has also received permission from the Florida Panthers to speak with their former head coach, Gerard Gallant, about taking the reins with the Isles on a full time basis. While the coaching change was surely made with the idea of sparking a second half playoff charge, it’s also quite possible this is just the first of several moves intended to get the Islanders back on the right track.

First and foremost, the goal for the Islanders will be to show superstar center John Tavares that the organization is fully committed to icing a competitive team around him. Tavares is eligible to become a free agent following the 2017-18 season and despite repeatedly stating his desire to remain with the organization that drafted him first overall in 2009, many in the industry feel that unless he views the Islanders as a legitimate contender, he’ll consider other options in free agency. That may pressure the front office into action, both at this year’s trade deadline and during the upcoming summer.

Assuming the new voice – whether Weight remains in charge for the duration of the campaign or the team hires another head coach such as Gallant – is unable to alter the team’s course ahead of the deadline, it’s conceivable the team will look to cash in veteran assets for controllable young talent and/or draft choices. Unfortunately the Islanders don’t possess much in the way of pending free agents that would appeal to other teams. Only Dennis Seidenberg, Stephen Gionta and Thomas Greiss are scheduled for unrestricted free agency after the season and none represent the type of asset that would command a significant return in trade.

The team could look to this summer’s free agent class in an effort to improve the roster but with more than $61MM already committed to 19 players in 2017-18, there won’t be much room to do so. It’s also possible the Islanders will look to move a big salary to create needed roster flexibility but other teams simply won’t have much interest in taking on the contract of someone like Andrew Ladd, who has six years and $33MM left on his deal and has struggled with just eight goals and 12 points in 41 contests this season. Mikhail Grabovski, who has been out all season with post-concussion syndrome, and Nikolai Kulemin are also unlikely to generate much interest on the trade market. Dealing any other roster player would only serve to create another hole the Islanders would have to fill.

It’s also fair to wonder whether GM Garth Snow will be the team’s leading decision-maker for much longer. After all, his offseason moves this past summer have not worked out particularly well and new ownership may not be as committed to the longtime Islanders executive as was Charles Wang. Remember, it was Wang who abruptly fired Neil Smith just six weeks into his tenure as GM and hired Snow, then the team’s backup goaltender, back in 2009. It has been reported that the organization’s new leaders, Jon Ledecky and Scott Malkin, have already been on the hunt for a “big name” executive to lead the team’s hockey operations department. The Islanders on-ice struggles could prompt ownership to transition away from Snow and bring in new leadership.

Clearly the Islanders organization has their work cut out for them and big decisions yet to make. The key question will be whether those decisions are enough to convince Tavares to sign on beyond the expiration of his current contract.

 

Will The Red Wings Be Buyers or Sellers?

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A couple wins over quality teams may have offered a glimmer of hope for the Detroit Red Wings playoff chances but barring an insane Columbus-like winning streak, all signs point to Detroit coming up short of a 26th straight appearance. Despite roaring back to beat Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Saturday evening, and then shutting out Montreal 1-0 on Monday, the Wings are hardly in the thick of things. If anything, the latest two victories, which put several young players in the spotlight, indicates why the Red Wings must get younger while giving the current young players on the squad a chance to compete.

Despite this, Ken Holland made a comment to TSN 690 that veteran players can have “off nights” because of stock built from previous performance. From the article:

Jeff Blashill and I talk about this quite often — Henrik Zetterberg is an example. He’s built up stock. It’s like you’re in a company,” Holland explained. “When you build up stock and you have an off night, all the stock you’ve built up allows you to have those nights when, as a veteran player, you maybe have an off night. When you’re a young player you can’t have off nights because you don’t have that stock built up, you haven’t done enough to help the team win through time.”

The logic is faulty in that young players will have off nights-simply because they’re young. Further, without Anthony Mantha or Andreas Athanasiou, it’s a wonder how much further down the Red Wings would be in the standings. Players like Jonathan Ericsson, Riley Sheahan, and Danny DeKeyser have struggled mightily this season, and don’t have the resume of a Zetterberg. Yet their minutes, and presence in the lineup, have remained consistent whereas Athanasiou has been scratched for sins only known to Blashill and Holland.

Apr 17, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Red Wings left wing Henrik Zetterberg (40) skates with the puck during the second period against the Tampa Bay Lightning in game three of the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Joe Louis Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

While Holland still has an eye on the playoffs, despite only an 11% chance of making them,  here are a few players Holland may want to dangle at the deadline.

Thomas Vanek

Vanek may be one of Holland’s better free agent pickups in the salary cap era, second only to Marian Hossa back in 2008. Vanek has nearly been a point-per-game player, and could be a missing piece for a slew of playoff teams looking to bolster its run at a Stanley Cup. Winging It In Motown had a detailed write up on what Vanek could garner and why he should be considered a prime piece to move.

In a weaker trade market, and looking at what some rentals garnered at last season’s deadline, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Vanek snares a 1st round pick or significant prospect.

Mike Green

Going back to Winging It In Motown, they target the other valuable asset, defenseman Mike Green. Green (another solid Holland pickup) does have a no-trade clause, but a chance to win a Cup may change his mind should the Wings continue to slip out of playoff range.  Green has been better for the Wings this season, already tallying 20 points (8-12) in 36 games. An offensive minded defenseman, Green would be an asset on the power play, and for the Wings, could yield quite the haul, possibly a 1st round pick for interested teams.

The next few weeks should reveal the Wings true standing. But taking a run at “the streak” instead of reloading for the future may be something that haunts the Wings for years to come.

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