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Milan Lucic

Potential 2016-17 Impact Rookies: Puljujarvi, Kempe, Goldobin, Tkachuk

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It’s rare for players to debut in the NHL and make a significant impact for their teams in the same year they are drafted. In 2015-16, just three players selected in the prior June’s draft – Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel and Noah Hanifin – appeared in more than 18 NHL contests as rookies. However, we could see as many as five 2016 draftees all earn regular shifts with their clubs during the 2016-17 season, two of whom appear in this post.

Jesse Puljujarvi (Edmonton) – Expected to go in the top-three of the draft, Puljujarvi surprisingly dropped to #4 after Columbus elected to take C Pierre-Luc Dubois at #3 instead of the Finnish winger. Edmonton happily grabbed Puljujarvi with their choice and this stroke of good fortune may have played a role in the June 29th trade of Taylor Hall to New Jersey for Adam Larsson. Having Puljujarvi in the fold provided Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli the knowledge he had enough depth on the wings to cash in a player of Hall’s caliber to address their weakness on the blue line.

Puljujarvi combines NHL size at 6-foot-3 and 203 pounds with excellent skating ability. He starred for the Finns helping his home country win the gold medal in the World Junior Championships. He also captured the tourney’s MVP award and finished tops among all participants in both assists (12) and points (17).

The Oilers already have one of the top young superstars in the game in MacDavid and saw 2014 first-round pick Leon Draisaitl bust out with a 51-point campaign in 2016-17. Joining that dangerous duo up front is former top overall selection Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Edmonton boasts plenty of talented high-end forwards which virtually assures Puljujarvi will have a chance to skate with some good players. Don’t be surprised if he ends up as a Calder Trophy finalist and the leading scorer among all 2016 draftees.

Adrian Kempe (Los Angeles) – After losing forwards Milan Lucic and Kris Versteeg to free agency and with Dustin Brown’s offense regressing to a level where he has no business in the top-nine, the Kings could turn to Kempe to provide additional scoring. Kempe, the team’s first-round choice in 2014, already has 55 games of pro experience in North America after suiting up this past season for the Kings AHL affiliate, the Ontario Reign. The Swedish winger tallied 11 goals and recorded 28 points during the regular season and another four goals and five points in 13 postseason contests.

Since Kempe doesn’t turn 20 until later this month and given he didn’t exactly dominate at the AHL level, it wouldn’t be a bad idea if the Kings sent him back to Ontario to start the 2016-17 campaign and get some more seasoning. But with Kyle Clifford (nine points in 56 games) and Brown (28 points in 82 games) currently expected to hold top-nine spots, according to Roster Resource, Los Angeles might decide they need to inject more offense into the lineup and Kempe could be the source of that offense.

Nikolay Goldobin (San Jose) – The Sharks addressed any need they may have had for a scoring line LW by signing Mikkel Boedker as a free agent this summer. With Tomas Hertl and Patrick Marleau also listed as LW’s on the team’s depth chart, it’s likely the highly skilled Goldobin begins the season with the San Jose Barracudas of the AHL to gain more experience. But in the event of injury, Goldobin could be among the team’s first choices for a promotion to the big club.

Goldobin is said to have an excellent shot and release and is a creative offensive player. He can use some work on his defensive game, as do many young players, which is another reason he might find himself in the AHL to start the 2016-17 campaign. But with Marleau entering the final year of his contract, Goldobin is in line to land a job with the Sharks soon enough; perhaps as early as this year.

Matthew Tkachuk (Calgary) – The Flames already possess several skilled young players, but as mentioned in an earlier installment of this series, if they do have an opening it would be for a scoring line LW with size. Hunter Shinkaruk might get the first crack to fill that role though he doesn’t possess the size the Flames would seem to need. If Shinkaruk isn’t ready for regular NHL action, Tkachuk could be an option for Calgary up front.

Tkachuk, the son of former NHL power forward Keith Tkachuk, was drafted by the Flames with the sixth overall selection of the 2016 draft following an impressive 107-point season with the London Knights of the OHL. While his dad was noted for playing a physical game (2,219 PIM in 1,201 NHL games), as well as being a terrific goal scorer, Matthew is more of a complete, two-way player who is also a good skater with high-end offensive instincts. He helped Team USA to a bronze medal at the 2016 WJC U20 tournament, tallying 11 points in seven contests.

Tkachuk might be better off returning to junior to gain more experience. He will certainly have to prove to the Flames that he is truly ready to play at the NHL level but he has the talent and the skill to provide some offense if he earns a role in Calgary.

 

 

Kevin Allen’s Latest: Early Predictions, Pivotal Players

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Kevin Allen writes that the Detroit Red Wings are one of five teams in danger of missing the playoffs this season. Similar to his reports while speaking with PHR, Allen lists a questionable defensive corps, inconsistent goaltending and whether or not goal scorers like Tomas Tatar and Gustav Nyquist will find the net as they should as reasons why they may not make it back for a 26th straight season. Though he could see them sneaking in, the Wings are more vulnerable than ever before. It all depends on youth and everything coming together.

Allen also lists the Los Angeles Kings, Philadelphia Flyers, New York Islanders, and St. Louis Blues as candidates to possibly miss. With the Kings, Allen believes that the Calgary Flames and Arizona Coyotes, if better, could push the Kings who lost Milan Lucic to Edmonton. The Flyers, a surprise team in the playoffs last season, will have more competition in the Metropolitan Division while the Canadiens, who struggled after Carey Price’s injury, will also be better in the Atlantic, making the Eastern Conference a lot tougher.

The Islanders, Allen writes, lost some key players in Frans Nielsen, and Kyle Okposo. Though he calls it “sinful” to bet against a John Tavares led team, he still wonders if they grabbed enough to compensate for their losses. Finally, with the Blues, Allen reports that they took a “half step” back while division foes Chicago, Minnesota, and Nashville all improved. Further, Arizona and Calgary are better, crowding the already tight Western Conference. Losing David Backes, Brian Elliott, and Troy Brouwer also doesn’t help for depth purposes.

  • Earlier in the week, Allen also compiled a list of the ten most pivotal players heading into the season. Number one on that list is Kari Lehtonen, who will make an early push to be the primary option between the pipes for the Stars. Though he has struggled in the past, he has the opportunity to backstop a potential Stanley Cup contender. Should he not, the Stars have been an oft-reported  team to land Ben Bishop should he be available. Other names Allen included were Brian Campbell, a player he believes could solidify the Blackhawks defense, and Elliott, who could finally give the Flames a strong goaltending option.

Snapshots: Fehr, NHLPA, Vegas, Lucic, Pietrangelo

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The head of the NHLPA, Donald Fehr, recently sat down with the Canadian media to discuss the upcoming World Cup of Hockey while also touching on other subjects of note. An edited and condensed version of the interview was posted by Jonas Siegel on The Globe And Mail. As usual, the entire piece is worth a read but here are some of the highlights.

When asked whether or not the union was on board with the timing of the tournament, Fehr said, “it’s not that pre-season is the best time, but it probably is, at the moment, better than the others.”

He would go on to state: “There has been some informal discussions, for purposes of this World Cup that never rose to the level of serious consideration, that maybe we ought to do it in February. And it’s conceivable that that would be considered going forward.”

There is no perfect time to hold an event like this. Any way you look at it, a tournament held at any point in the year is going to prolong the season and shorten the summer for the players. While teams would probably prefer their players not to participate due in large part to the risk of injury, both owners and union members have a vested interest in successfully pulling off events of this nature since the added revenue will be divided by the players and the league.

Fehr also addressed the idea of European expansion from the players’ perspective. He indicated at least a few players have taken note of the KHL’s presence on the continent and the fact that so many players are European born. While making it clear these conversations were of the internal variety and did not involve the NHL in any way, Fehr did seem to suggest the players would be open to the idea and it was something that would merit further study.

Finally, on the subject of the potential of another lockout, Fehr pointed out that baseball has been the only sport to experience prolonged labor peace over the last two decades. He also mentions, probably not coincidentally, that baseball is the only major sports league without a salary cap.

In terms of possibly avoiding another work stoppage following the 2018-19 campaign when both parties will have the option of opting out of the current CBA, Fehr referenced just how far off that point in time is relative to the average player’s career by saying: “our membership will turn over more than 50 per cent between now and then.”

More from around the NHL:

  • The Las Vegas expansion franchise today announced yet another addition to their front office/operations staff. The club has hired Mike Levine for a scouting/player development position. Levine spent the last three years as an assistant coach at Brown University. According to the release on the Vegas Is Hockey website, Levine comes with a solid reputation as a recruiter both at the collegiate and prep levels.
  • Not surprisingly, Milan Lucic said as many as 10 teams expressed serious interest in signing the big winger before he inked a seven-year contract with Edmonton, according to Chris Nichols writing for Today’s Slap Shot. Lucic was one of the top players available on July 1st and was guaranteed to generate a lot of interest on the free agent market. It’s not certain how many of Lucic’s suitors were willing to extend themselves as far as the Oilers did, either financially or with a seven-year term, but his status as a coveted free agent was never in doubt. He would ultimately choose Edmonton, saying, “I went with my heart and my loyalty to Peter and chose the Edmonton Oilers.”
  • Sportsnet’s John Shannon tweeted earlier today that the St. Louis Blues will announce Alex Pietrangelo as the team’s new captain tomorrow. He will replace David Backes, who left St. Louis in free agency after accepting a five-year deal with the Boston Bruins. The choice of Pietrangelo makes a lot of sense given he is one of the team’s best players, has been with the organization his entire pro career and is under long-term contract ensuring he will be a Blue for the foreseeable future.

Snapshots: Lucic, Possible Retirees, Gretzky

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Milan Lucic may have only been a member of the Los Angeles Kings for one season, but at least one teammate is sad to see him go. Right-winger Tyler Toffoli lamented the loss of “a great player, a great guy to have in the room”. Toffoli scored a career-best 58 points last season on a line with Lucic and center Jeff Carter, who posted 62 points to tie his third best career output, and best since 2011.

Lucic, of course, signed a seven-year contract worth $42MM with the Edmonton Oilers on July 1, citing a team on the rise and some rookie named Connor McDavid as his main reasons for heading north. OilersNation’s Jonathan Willis broke down how Oilers fans can expect Lucic to age over the course of his contract, and ultimately concluded Lucic will be very effective in his first three seasons, has a two-thirds chance at being effective in the next two seasons, and has a 50-70 per cent chance at posting below 30 points in his final two seasons. However, Lucic told Steve Ewen of The Province that he plans “on playing them out to the best of my ability and, hopefully, I can add another year or two once this contract is done”.

Here are some other news and notes from around the NHL:

  • Speaking of players who could retire, Jared Clinton of The Hockey News explored a few big names who could be entering their final season in the NHL. We could be seeing the last of several former superstars, including Jarome Iginla, Shane Doan, Andrei Markov, and Mark Streit. Iginla has seen his point totals fall by 13 over the last three seasons. Doan has an understanding with GM John Chayka which allows him to take his time on deciding about returning or retiring, and its clear he has no interest in chasing Stanley as a rental. The KHL is a possibility for Markov, who will no longer have the speedy P.K. Subban to cover for his aging speed. Similarly, Streit has previously played in his native Switzerland, and could return next summer. Clinton also mentions the legendary Jaromir Jagr, but seeing as Jagr insists on playing until he’s 60, it’s hard to think he’ll willingly retire unless his production drops off or he suffers a serious injury.
  • Finally, today marks 28 years since “The Trade”. On August 9, 1988, the Edmonton Oilers traded Wayne Gretzky, Mike Krushelnyski, and Marty McSorley to Los Angeles for Jimmy Carson, Martin Gelinas, three first round picks over six years, and most notable (or infamously) $15 million cash. Edmonton fans reacted as expected, burning the team’s owner in effigy and threatening to cancel season tickets; a Member of Parliament even suggested the federal government block the trade. The blockbuster popularized and legitimized hockey in non-traditional markets and lead to a popular comment around the trade deadline “well, if Wayne Gretzky can be traded…”

Oilers Notes: Lucic, Larsson, Talbot, McDavid, Lagesson

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The Edmonton Oilers are next up on Pro Hockey Talk’s daily team series and Jason Brough identifies summer signing Milan Lucic as the Oiler under pressure for 2016-17. Considering the large contract given to Lucic and the expectation he will assume the first-line left wing spot vacated following the trade of former #1 overall pick Taylor Hall, there is certainly plenty of pressure on the menacing forward.

One could argue that Adam Larsson, the defenseman the Oilers dealt Hall for and who is expected to be a viable top pair blue liner for a team desperate to improve on the back end, is under even more pressure than Lucic. Lucic is already a finished product for all intents and purposes, and with four 20-goal seasons on his resume already, Lucic needs only perform at the level he has been over the last several seasons.

On the other hand, Larsson has yet to fulfill his potential completely, and needs to take the next step in his development in order to meet expectations. If the Oilers are going to push for a playoff spot this season they need Larsson to become the player they believe he can be.

More on the Oilers…..

  • In another piece on Pro Hockey Talk, Brough talks about the up-and-down season Cam Talbot had in his first year as a starter in the league. As Brough notes, Talbot got off to a slow start through November but rebounded in December and January posting save percentages of 93.4% and 93.2% respectively during those months. Given the somewhat inconsistent nature of Talbot’s performance and his relative lack of starting experience, Brough feels the goaltending situation is still uncertain in Edmonton. It appears Edmonton will go into the season with journeyman backstop Jonas Gustavsson as Talbot’s backup between the pipes (all team depth charts can be found at Roster Resource). Given that likelihood, Edmonton will need Talbot to play at the level he did in the latter part of last season if they want to compete for a playoff spot.
  • Bruce McCurdy, writing for the Edmonton Journal, discusses the progress of Edmonton defense prospect William Lagesson. Lagesson, the Oilers 4th round pick in 2014, played last season as a freshman for a U-Mass program that struggled to a 8-24-4 mark and was outscored by 62 goals. The Swedish rearguard led the teams defense corps recording a -6 plus-minus rating. Edmonton obviously needs all the good defense prospects they can accumulate and it appears Lagesson is developing into one.
  • Meanwhile, David Staples, also covering the Oilers for the Edmonton Journal, penned a piece on how one publication, hockey prognosticator The Hockey Forecaster, is projecting Connor McDavid to have a Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin-like impact on his team’s offensive output. In their rookie campaigns, Crosby and Ovechkin helped their teams score 53 and 44 more goals respectively than they potted the previous season. The Oilers are predicted to tally a total of 237 goals, which would be an increase of 38 markers over their 2015-16 season total. The Hockey Forecaster also predicts career seasons from Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl and Oscar Klefbom, among others. Staples writes that those projections might be a stretch but recognizes that an elite talent such as McDavid, Crosby and Ovechkin can have that type of impact for a team. Assuming the predictions even come close to fruition then Edmonton might be able to outscore their way to postseason contention.

Free Agent Profile: Brandon Pirri

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Now that Shane Doan is officially off the market – although no one really expected the veteran winger to leave the desert – there are few options remaining for teams looking to add offense to their lineups. Yesterday we profiled five of the top forwards remaining in free agency that could conceivably fit the bill. One of those players, Brandon Pirri, noticably stuck out on that list due to his relative youth compared to his unemployed peers.

It’s not usually surprising that aging veterans whose best seasons are clearly in the rear view mirror might linger on the market well into the summer. In fact, many will either be forced to accept training camp invites or face the prospect of retirement. However, it’s exceedingly rare for one of the league’s most prolific goal scorers – based on rate stats – and who is still just 25-years-old, to be waiting for his next contract into the middle of July.

Pirri tallied 14 goals and 29 points last year in 61 games, splitting the season between Florida and Anaheim. The Ducks had acquired the 6-foot, 183-pound forward from the Panthers at the trade deadline in exchange for a sixth-round draft choice. The year prior, Pirri netted 22 goals in 61 contests, albeit with an amazingly low 2 assists, for the Panthers.

Over the last three seasons, Pirri has averaged 0.95 goals for every 60 minutes of ice time he sees at five-on-five play. That rate places him 30th in the NHL among all forwards who have suited up for a minimum of 120 games during that span. In terms of even-strength goal scoring prowess, Pirri is certainly among the best in the game.

Based on overall point-production, however, Pirri ranks just 203rd over the past three seasons in points-per-hour, due in large part to his 2014-15 tally of just two helpers. That ranking would seem to place him outside of a top-six role when it comes to offensive contributions.

Goal scoring is typically sought after and usually rewarded in free agency. Pirri’s continued presence on the open market is a bit of a mystery. It’s possible teams are scared off due to his low assists total from two seasons ago. Though it should be noted, if we remove that outlier from his career numbers, Pirri actually has two more assists than goals scored in his career and typically teams don’t pay as much attention to extreme statistical outliers.

Whatever the reason, it seems clear teams are hesitant about employing Pirri. He’s suited up for three NHL clubs over the last three campaigns and despite quality offensive numbers at the time of the trade, the Ducks obtained him from Florida for the lowly cost of a sixth-round draft pick. After the season, Anaheim elected not to qualify Pirri, a move that may have struck some as a bit surprising. He was eligible for arbitration and goals tend to be given extra weight when arbitrators decide on a player’s salary. It’s possible the Ducks wanted to avoid that process altogether. Nonetheless Pirri is free to sign with any team willing to give him a chance to show off his goal scoring acumen.

Potential Fits

New Jersey – The Devils finished last in the NHL in scoring this past season but have already added top-line LW Taylor Hall to the mix and expect their best returning offensive player, Mike Cammalleri, to be healthy at the outset of the upcoming campaign. A look at the club’s depth chart, courtesy of our partner site, Roster Resource, indicates the Devils have plenty of forward options so their interest in Pirri would likely be tepid at best.

Edmonton – Even though the Oilers have filled the hole they created when shipping the aforementioned Hall to Jersey by signing Milan Lucic, they could still use an upgrade over Mark Letestu at the third-line pivot position. Edmonton finished 25th in scoring and didn’t necessarily improve in that department by swapping out Hall for Lucic.

Columbus – If the Blue Jackets are ever able to offload winger Scott Hartnell they could be in the market for another goal scorer. But it’s possible the team would rather reinvest any savings from a Hartnell move into their defense as they have a number of quality forward prospects ready to make the jump to Columbus.

Los Angeles – Currently the Kings list Dwight King, Kyle Clifford and Dustin Brown as top-nine wingers. King’s career best in the goal socring department is 15 while Clifford has never tallied more than seven in any single season. Meanwhile, Brown’s days as a productive player capable of adequately manning a top-nine role may well be over. On a cheap contract the Kings could make sense for Pirri.

Expected Contract

Considering Anaheim passed on qualifying Pirri at just more than $1MM annually and given how late in the free agent season it is now, it’s not likely Pirri is going to find a deal representing much of a raise over the $925K he earned this past season. As such, a team like the Kings might be a terrific fit for Pirri on a one-year, make good deal at right around $1MM.

 

Top-Line Options Remaining In Free Agency

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For many teams, free agency is a place to find a player or two to slot into your top two lines, to supplement the core you already have in place.  Edmonton went out and got Milan Lucic, to add some veteran toughness while replacing the outgoing offensive contribution of Taylor Hall. Vancouver added Loui Eriksson in a questionable move for a team who hasn’t quite decided what direction they’re headed in, and Buffalo brought on Kyle Okposo to ride shotgun with their young talent up front.

Now that the madness has died down, the market for these top-six players is extremely thin, with only a few names having established themselves there in the past.  With Shane Doan surely re-signing with the Coyotes, and Patrik Elias looking as though it’s either Devils or retirement, two of the most well known names among this group aren’t going anywhere.  Here are the other possibilities for a team to add to their top-six:

(number in parentheses represents ranking on our Top 50 UFAs)

  1. Jiri Hudler (18) – Though Hudler is now 32-years old and took a significant step back last season, he still represents one of the better second-line options available. His 46 points in 2015-16 split between the Flames and Panthers were a disappointing total for a player coming off a 31-goal, 76 point season but still ranked him right alongside players like Andrew Ladd (46 points, $38.5MM) and David Backes (45 points, $30MM).
  2. Kris Versteeg (25) – While Versteeg is probably better suited as a third-liner on a good team, he has shown the ability to move up in the lineup consistently in the past.  A three-time twenty goal scorer, Versteeg has scored at least 34 points in each of his seven healthy seasons.  He can play either wing, and brings a level of physicality to his game as well.
  3. Radim Vrbata (27) – Vrbata is clearly on the downswing of his career, having put up just 27 points and a whopping -30 mark last season.  Now 35, he’ll look to sign a cheap deal and could be a nice value signing for a team pressed against the cap. Remember, this is a guy who has over 250 career NHL goals, and is just one season removed from the second 30-goal season of his career.
  4. Alex Tanguay (33) – Though he’s now 37, Tanguay continues to produce like a second-line center, putting up another 35 point campaign despite having a much reduced role after a trade to Arizona.  For a team looking to shelter their young forwards, a veteran like Tanguay can provide some offensive punch on a cheap, short-term deal. He’ll likely break 900 points in what has been an excellent career for the former Avalanche stalwart.
  5. Brandon Pirri (NR) – Despite Pirri’s reputation as a bottom-six forward, some teams might see the former Panther as a second-line option, due to his previous goal scoring ability.  Pirri has potted 36 goals over the past two seasons, including 22 in 2014-15. The problem is that he’s racked up just 17 assists over the same time.  He was an outstanding scorer in his AHL career, and is still just 25-years old, meaning that taking a shot on him might not be the worst gamble among the remaining options.

Pacific Notes: Oilers, Kings, Canucks

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The Oilers trade for Adam Larsson was not well received in many parts of the hockey world, and TSN’s Travis Yost writes that just getting Larsson was not enough for Taylor Hall. Outside of opining that Larsson might not be as good as the Oilers think, he notes that the Devils were often better with Larsson on the bench. However, Yost also points out that Oilers bench boss Todd McLellan could do wonders for the young d-man by employing a “friendly two-way approach.” Yost provides a number of statistical defenses as to why Larsson may not be as bad as many think, but he concludes by indicating that Hall was more valuable than just a one for one trade for Larsson.

  • The Los Angeles Kings are one of six teams that have been very quiet this offseason writes Puck Daddy’s Greg Wyshynski. Despite signing Teddy Purcell, and Tom Gilbert, Wyshynski notes that the Kings are in need of a left wing after losing Milan Lucic to Edmonton and they have little cap room to spare. Wyshynski wonders if the Kings can move Dustin Brown, who was recently stripped of the captaincy. The cap concerns are troubling since Tyler Toffoli and Tanner Pearson are both due raises after next season.
  • Ben Kuzma writes that Canucks winger Jake Virtanen has to put on his “big boy pants” and plunge into the crowded rink filled with forwards. Kuzma writes how Virtanen has a number of different hurdles to clear, one of which includes impressing new assistant coach Doug Jarvis, who’s in charge of forwards and the power play. Kuzma insists that Virtanen possesses the skills to make an impact on the Canucks roster, but that his maturity last season suffered when his “attention span would waver or his conditioning wasn’t where it should be.” Virtanen had 13 points (7-6) in 55 games.

The Signing Bonus: Rise Of The Buyout-Proof Contract

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The life of an NHL agent is tough. As the league continues to tweak (or totally overhaul) their CBA each few seasons, changing contract regulations and offering teams different ways of structuring deals, agents are always trying to find ways to circumvent them and get the best offers for their clients.

With teams becoming more and more willing to use buyouts to rid themselves of the horrible contracts that they sign on July 1st – famously a day of simultaneous excitement and regret – agents around the league needed to find a way to protect their clients from losing out on a third (or sometimes two-thirds) of the salary the sides agreed on.

The most recent buyout window, which lasted from June 15th to 30th, saw a dozen NHL players bought out, including household names like Thomas Vanek and Dennis Seidenberg. While some fans may see this as an opportunity for a player to earn two contracts at the same time – Vanek was signed on by Detroit for $2.6MM on July 1st, more than the $1.5MM he surrendered in his buyout – most take it as a personal slight, an indictment of their play or character. Regardless, agents continue to try and secure guarantees for their clients, instead of leaving the power in the hands of the league’s general managers.

Enter the signing bonus, this summer’s contract-du-jour. All across the league, big name free agents have inked deals that will see them paid almost entirely in signing bonuses, with very little actual salary being given out each season.  Take Loui Eriksson for instance:

2016-17 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2017-18 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2018-19 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $6MM
2019-20 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $4MM
2020-21 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $3MM
2021-22 – Salary: $3MM, Bonus: $1MM

While Eriksson’s cap-hit sits at $6MM per year, he’ll make more than that in bonuses alone each of the next three seasons. There are a couple of reasons why this would benefit the player.

For one, everyone loves getting a big check rather than a weekly salary – who would turn down a piece of paper with six zeros?  As any economist will tell you, money in hand is worth more than money promised to come, and just as teams in other sports are deferring payments for this reason long into the future, having money up front is actually more valuable for the player in question.

It’s in the buyout rules that the contract really holds value though, as – hinted at by the title – these contracts are basically buyout-proof.  Under the current CBA, buyouts are calculated by taking two-thirds of the remaining salary owed, not including signing bonuses, and spreading it out over twice the remaining contract length. The new cap hit is determined by subtracting the savings from the average annual value of the deal which includes signing bonuses.

This means that if the Canucks were to want to buy out Eriksson after say, the third year of his new deal, they’ll only be saving $333K of cap hit in 2020-21, an insignificant portion of the $6MM number. That last season of $3MM is a bit better for the Canucks (they would save $2MM of his cap hit), but structuring it this way almost guarantees that Eriksson will collect at least $35MM of his deal – more than 97%. It’s just not worth it to buy him out any sooner than his final year.

Andrew Ladd, Milan Lucic, Kyle Okposo all signed deals heavily impacted by signing bonuses, protecting them against a buyout through all but the very end of their agreements.  Even Matt Martin, a career fourth liner secured a $10MM deal that is 65% bonus.  He’ll only be collecting $750K in salary in years three and four of the deal.

While this doesn’t necessarily mean trouble for clubs around the league, you can bet the owners and NHLPA will take a look at it when negotiations begin on the new CBA.  The current agreement expires in 2022, though the two sides have the option to end it a year earlier.

Just as the league has used cap recapture and contract limits to close loopholes in the past, be sure that if they want to continue to have the option to buyout bad contracts they’ll remove this option from the equation.  Creating a rule that would make signing bonuses only be able to hit a certain percentage of each season’s salary would be the easy fix, but expect push-back from the NHLPA.

Even if they do end up closing it, agents will work on another way to get their clients the best possible guarantee; they always seem to be one step ahead of the league.

Edmonton Inks Milan Lucic

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Long rumored to be headed to Edmonton, Milan Lucic is set to sign a contract with the Oilers today, according to John Shannon of Sportsnet.  Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos reports it’s a seven year deal worth $42MM.

While he didn’t covet quite as much attention as Steven Stamkos did prior to his re-signing, Lucic was the top power forward available in free agency (we had him ranked third in our Top 50 list).  In 2015-16 with the Kings, he played in 81 games, scoring 20 goals while adding 35 assists.  That marked the fourth time in the last five full seasons (excluding the lockout-shortened campaign) that he has hit the 20 goal mark.

Despite being one of the most physical wingers in the league, Lucic has been remarkably durable.  Over the last five years, he has missed just seven games (and two of those were due to suspensions).  Nonetheless, given the fact that power forwards tend to wear out quicker over time, there could be some concern for the Oilers towards the back of the contract.  In the meantime though, Lucic will provide Edmonton with a legitimate top line left winger for at least the next several years sliding into the recently-traded Taylor Hall’s spot.

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