The Weakest Position In Free Agency
One of the big discussions going around the hockey world this week has been whether or not a team like the Toronto Maple Leafs should take a chance on an offer sheet for restricted free agent defenseman Colton Parayko. The offer sheet strategy, while allowed by the NHL collective bargaining agreement, is generally frowned upon in the sport. There is an unwritten code that you don’t poach other teams’ young talent. Those who do often pay the price by having their own prospects come under fire. There is also an actual price to pay for the practice, as offer sheets come with a steep compensatory formula. The 2017 compensation levels, just recently announced, dictate that a team would owe a third-round pick for a contract not even worth $2MM annually, while a contract north of $4MM per year would cost a first-rounder plus.
So why would a team like the Leafs entertain going after Parayko? And if they’re going to face the risk of an offer sheet, why Parayko and not another defenseman like Shayne Gostisbehere or Nikita Zadorov or even star forwards like David Pastrnak or Leon Draisaitl? The reason: Parayko represents the best free agent, restricted or unrestricted, at his position – right-shot defenseman.
Calling the right-shot defenseman grouping for this years unrestricted free agency pool “weak” is an understatement. Other than Kevin Shattenkirk, Parayko’s teammate in St. Louis and possibly the biggest name on the market at any position, you would be hard-pressed to find a single top-four defenseman and only a hand full of bona fide starters altogether. Cody Franson, under-utilized in Buffalo the past two years, is likely the next man up and the painstaking wait of the 2015 off-season showed how willing teams were to meet his salary demands. Toronto specifically already has had experience with Franson and know he is not the answer to their struggles. Behind Franson comes half of the Calgary Flames 2016-17 blue line: Dennis Wideman, Deryk Engelland, and trade deadline acquisition Michael Stone. The trio played a combined 165 man-games for the Flames this season, with Engelland and Stone playing each game of their first-round sweep by the Anaheim Ducks, and combined for just 50 points. Stone has the greatest upside, but hasn’t proved himself as a reliable top-four option and has struggled with injuries. The Flames were desperate to get Wideman out of town and Engelland has become a one-dimensional player in recent years. Next, there is Roman Polak, another former Maple Leaf. The team seems to have ruled out re-signing the veteran blue-liner and other teams should follow suit. Yannick Weber, currently playing in the Stanley Cup Final with the Nashville Predators, picked a good year to be a free agent, as his effective albeit unexciting style of play should still pay off in a weak class. After Weber? Matt Tennyson from Carolina? Paul Postma from Winnipeg? That is basically it.
This is why the Parayko-to-Toronto talk will continue. Those teams in need of a right shot near the top of their defensive depth are largely out of luck in 2017. Once Shattenkirk is off the board, which should be right away on July 1st, there are slim pickings for the rest. Best wishes to whatever righty D-needy team misses out on Shattenkirk, Franson, Stone, and Weber. There are simply no options. Unless, of course, you dip into restricted free agency. Beyond Parayko, another option is Pittsburgh’s Justin Schultz,who put up a whopping 51 points in the regular season and has 11 points (and counting) in the playoffs. The Penguins would likely be unable to match an expensive contract for Schultz if he were presented with a lucrative offer sheet. After back-to-back strong campaigns, New Jersey’s Damon Severson has proven to be a legitimate offensive defenseman and could entice the right team. Jake Dotchin had a successful rookie season, but the Lightning have a world of cap problems to solve this summer and would struggle to fit an offer sheet-inflated contract for Dotchin into the mix. Finally, even if both Alex Petrovic and Mark Pysyk survive the Expansion Draft in Florida, the Panthers may simply choose one over the other if an offer sheet were involved. The options are plenty on the restricted side of free agency, but the question remains whether any teams will be bold enough to go that route.
Snapshots: Bunnaman, Backman, Stone
The Philadelphia Flyers have signed Connor Bunnaman to an entry-level deal after his big season for the Kitchener Rangers. The fourth-round pick from last summer scored 37 goals in 64 games and showed off his potential as a power forward.
Now just 19, Bunnaman will have to return to the OHL next year should he not make the Flyers out of camp. After leading a pretty loaded Rangers team in goals, the Flyers hope he’ll push his offensive boundaries even further next season.
- Mattias Backman will not be playing for the Hershey Bears in the AHL playoffs. He’s left the team, and as Sean Shapiro tweets he’s headed back to Sweden and is “pretty much done” as a Dallas Stars prospect. Backman was loaned at the deadline from Texas to Hershey, but will now return to the SHL where he had such success. Just 24-years old, there is still a chance he’ll return to the NHL some day, but for now shouldn’t be counted on as part of the Stars’ future.
- Like Kris Versteeg earlier today, Michael Stone told Pat Steinberg of Sportsnet that he thinks Calgary is a really good fit, and would be open to re-signing there. While no player is going to chew out his team on their way to free agency, Stone is right when he says it’s a good fit. He slid nicely into their defensive group after being acquired prior to the deadline, and with Dennis Wideman coming off the books could easily fit there on a longer term. With Calgary needing goaltending above all else, inking Stone to an extension before he becomes an unrestricted free agent would free their plates for the real task at hand.
Pacific Notes: Getzlaf, Ritchie, Miska
While much of the pre-series chatter of the Flames-Ducks playoff series centered around how the Ducks would be able to defend against Flames’ stars Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, Game 1 reversed those thoughts. After Anaheim’s Ryan Getzlaf took control of Friday night’s game, people now wonder how Calgary might be able to stop him instead.
The Orange County Register’s Eric Stephens writes the 31-year-old scored the opening goal 52 seconds into the playoff series, then assisted on Rickard Rakell‘s game-tying goal and then led the penalty killing unit in the final minutes to hold on for the victory. “He was huge for us last night,” said Rakell. “I mean, he did it all. When he plays like that, I think everybody else just wants to follow him. Hopefully that can just keep going”
The oft-overlooked Getzlaf has been leading the team with his energy and also has led the team in minutes played in Game 1. He fared well on faceoffs winning 12 of 20 Friday as well. Getzlaf has also been taking the lead on power plays, creating new problems for the Flames. “He’s got such good vision and poise with the puck,” Flames penalty killing defenseman Michael Stone said after Game 1. “He hangs on to it. You think he’s going to do one thing and he changes up and does something else. He’s got all the weapons when he’s back there looking at the whole ice.”
Other Western Notes:
- Ducks’ forward Nick Ritchie is expected to return to the lineup after a two-game suspension for tonight’s Game 2 playoff game against the Flames. Ritchie was suspended for the regular season finale and Game 1 of the playoffs for punching Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Michal Rozsival on Apr. 6. Ritchie finished the season with 14 goals and 14 assists in 77 gacmes this season. Because of his return, prospect Ondrej Kase was sent back to San Diego. Kase had two shots on goal in Game 1.
- The Arizona Coyotes have agreed to sign the University of Minnesota-Duluth freshman goaltender Hunter Miska, who led the Bulldogs’ hockey team to the NCAA Championship game last month. Duluth News Tribune’s Matt Wellens writes that Miska, who went undrafted, will forgo his final three years of eligibility to sign with the Coyotes. The 21-year-old backstop posted a 2.20 GAA and a .920 save percentage in his lone season for UMD. For Arizona, it gives the Coyotes a young prospect to develop after a season in which Arizona finished with the third-worst Goals Against with a 3.15. This is the second year in a row that Minnesota-Duluth has lost their starting goalie to the NHL. Last year, sophomore goalkeeper Kasimir Kaskisuo signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Minor Moves: Driedger, Andersson, Stone
It was a short and sweet call up for the Senators’ Chris Driedger, who will be sent down today according to Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia. The goaltender was an emergency call up when Craig Anderson was injured this week, though he never got into a game. He has three appearances in his NHL career, but spent most of his time in the minor leagues.
Now with Anderson seemingly healthy enough, Drieger will head back to the Binghamton Senators and try to finish the season with a strong showing. The netminder has just a .906 save percentage in the AHL this season, though that is easily the best on the baby-Sens. The 22-year old is one of several goaltending prospects that Ottawa will make their mark on the NHL sooner or later.
- According to Pat Steinberg of Sportsnet, the Calgary Flames have made Rasmus Andersson a regular call up in order to keep him with the NHL team. Originally recalled on an emergency basis, Andersson will stick around for at least a while to make sure the Flames have enough depth on defense. He actually hasn’t gotten into a game yet, as Dennis Wideman has figured into the lineup over the recent stretch of games.
- It doesn’t look like Andersson will get in anytime soon, as Michael Stone will return to the lineup tonight in place of Wideman. Stone was injured in the March 9th game against the Montreal Canadiens, and has missed the last three games. He is still undefeated as a member of the Flames, as the team traded for him just before starting the 10-game win streak that ended on Wednesday against Boston. He’ll look to remain that way tonight when the Flames take on the Dallas Stars.
Injury Notes: Scandella, Tkachuk, Leighton
The Minnesota Wild came limping out of their matchup with the Washington Capitals last night in more ways than one. Michael Russo of the Star Tribune reports that Marco Scandella was absent from the team’s practice today after being seen favoring one leg after the game. If the Wild defenseman can’t go, Russo points to Mike Reilly as the potential replacement.
Reilly has been playing in Iowa for the past month after suiting up for 17 games with the Wild this season. The 23-year old has had a nice season in the AHL this year, recording 23 points in 41 games. The Wild are back at it tomorrow against the Carolina Hurricanes as they continue to battle for first place in the Western Conference.
- Matthew Tkachuk will be a game time decision at tonight’s Calgary Flames game, as he is battling a lower-body injury and was held out of practice according to Pat Steinberg of Sportsnet. The rookie winger has 44 points in 65 games this season and most other years would be a runaway winner of the Calder Trophy. Tkachuk was the #6 draft pick this past June, and has already made an impact for the playoff-bound Flames.
- Michael Stone is progressing according to Steinberg, who reports that he’ll go through a full practice tomorrow and be re-evaluated on Friday. The big defender was acquired at the deadline to help lengthen out the Flames blue line, but was injured in last week’s game against the Montreal Canadiens.
- Former NHL goaltender Michael Leighton requires surgery and will be out for at least four to six weeks. Though it would have been a big blow for the Charlotte Checkers, the team acquired Tom McCollum at the deadline for just this situation. The AHL squad will now go after a playoff spot—which is very much in doubt as they lag behind Reilly and the Iowa Wild—with their newest addition instead of the veteran Leighton.
Snapshots: Avalanche, Stone, Foligno, Namestnikov
News and notes from around the NHL this evening:
- The Colorado Avalanche announced that they’ve recalled defenseman Anton Lindholm from the AHL San Antonio Rampage. The Swedish prospect is playing in his first season outside of Sweden and has 2G and 10A in 59 games. Lindholm was drafted 144th overall in 2014, and with the Avalanche firmly out of a playoff spot, now is the time to see what the team’s prospects have to offer at the NHL level.
- The Calgary Flames received some good news regarding defenseman Michael Stone. Sportsnet Fan 960’s Pat Steinberg reports that Flames GM Brad Treliving told reporters that Stone’s upper-body injury is not going to be as long as it could’ve have been. Stone has excelled in Calgary since being traded from the Arizona Coyotes. He has 1G and 3A in 8 games, outpacing his 1G and 8A through 45 games in Arizona.
- Columbus Blue Jackets forward and captain Nick Foligno will not play tonight against the Philadelphia Flyers, reports Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch. Foligno is ill and did not practice this morning either. Foligno has 24G and 23A in 65 games this season for the surprising Blue Jackets, who sit just three points out of first place in the NHL. Foligno is not the only prominent Blue Jacket missing tonights game. Defenseman Ryan Murray broke his hand and will miss 4-6 weeks.
- The Tampa Bay Lightning will have forward Vladislav Namestnikov back in the lineup tonight against the New York Rangers, reports Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times. Namestnikov hurt his leg Thursday against the Minnesota Wild, but escaped serious injury. The Russian first round draft pick has 9G and 15A in 62 games for the Lightning, and will help close the gap on a playoff berth. The team is only three points out of the second wild card slot in the East.
Emergency Recalls: Melchiori, Andersson
As of March 1st, the day of the NHL trade deadline, teams are restricted to calling up no more than four players from the minor leagues and must be judicious in how they use them. There is, of course, an exception to that limitation: emergency recalls. Teams are allowed to call up a player on an emergency basis but they can only use a player with that designation in the event they don’t have enough healthy bodies to ice a full lineup. That very situation may possibly play out tonight for both Winnipeg and Calgary.
- The Winnipeg Jets announced this morning that they have recalled defenseman Julian Melchiori from Manitoba of the AHL on an emergency basis. Fellow blue liner Ben Chiarot is “under the weather,” according to Ted Wyman of the Winnipeg Sun, and is a game time decision. In the event Chiarot is unable to go, Melchiori will take his spot. Melchiori has appeared in five games this season for the Jets, going scoreless while averaging roughly 15 1/2 minutes per contest. He has registered eight points and 18 penalty minutes in 40 games for the Moose. The 6-foot-5 blue liner was chosen by Winnipeg in the third round of the 2010 entry draft.
- With Michael Stone sidelined with an upper-body injury and Dougie Hamilton questionable for tonight’s contest due to a lower-body issue, the Calgary Flames have brought up defenseman Rasmus Andersson from Stoctkton with an emergency designation, the club announced yesterday. Andersson, 20, would make his NHL debut should Hamilton be ruled out tonight. Sportsnet 960’s Derek Willis tweeted that Hamilton was on the ice for the team’s morning skate but Flames head coach Glen Gulutzan called the blue liner a “game-time decision.” In his first season as a pro, Andersson has tallied three goals and 22 points in 50 games for the Heat. The 6-foot defenseman was Calgary’s second-round choice in the 2015 draft. Veteran blue liner Dennis Wideman will draw back into the lineup for the Flames, taking the place of Stone. It marks the first appearance for Wideman in more than three weeks.
Snapshots: Jackals, Lightning, Oilers
The ECHL continues to shrink, as the Elmira Jacksls announced today that they will cease operations at the end of the season. That’s the second team in less than a month to announce they are shutting down, after the Alaska Aces broke the news to their fans a few weeks ago. The Jackals have been around for 17 years, and are currently the affiliate of the Buffalo Sabres. They will play out their remaining 14 games but, as they are at the very bottom of the league standings, will be shutting their doors immediately afterwards.
- Tampa Bay looks like it might have avoided certain doom last night when they lost three centermen to injury. The team reports that Tyler Johnson, Vladislav Namestnikov and Cedric Paquette all are day-to-day with lower-body injuries. All three looked much worse during the game, but each player has been spotted walking around the arena today.
- The Edmonton Oilers will welcome Benoit Pouliot, Kris Russell and Iiro Pakarinen back into the lineup tonight, as they take on the Pittsburgh Penguins. None of the three have played yet in March, with Pouliot’s injury taking him back even further than that. As the team fights with the surging Calgary Flames in the Pacific Division, they’ll welcome all the help they can get.
- Sportsnet’s Pat Steinberg is reporting that the Flames will recall Rasmus Andersson before they take on the Winnipeg Jets tomorrow night. The Flames’ second-round pick in 2015, Andersson has impressed during his first taste of professional hockey and has 22 points in 50 AHL games. The Swedish defenseman could step into a spot vacated by Dougie Hamilton or Michael Stone, should either one miss time with their nagging injuries.
Trade Deadline Summary: Winners & Losers Of The Pacific Division
The NHL Trade Deadline has come and gone, and while it wasn’t the most exciting deadline day in recent memory, there were quite a few notable moves. Here are the winners and losers of the upstart Pacific Division:
Winners
Anaheim Ducks:
- Acquired Patrick Eaves from Dallas Stars for conditional second-round pick
The Ducks had one real need at the deadline and that was another top six winger. By getting ahead of the market and making the deal for Eaves earlier this week, Anaheim was already a winner at the deadline. The conditional second-rounder, which can become a first, is a steep price. However, given that Eaves is having a career year, the market value had yet to be set, and the Ducks desperation had grown due to the Antoine Vermette suspension, they were right to swing a deal when they had the chance. It was a quiet deadline day in Anaheim, but this is still a team that could make a lot of noise down the stretch.
Arizona Coyotes:
- Acquired 2017 third-round pick and conditional 2018 fifth-round pick from Calgary Flames for Michael Stone
- Acquired 2017 first-round pick, 2018 second-round pick, conditional 2019 fourth-round pick, and Grayson Downing from Minnesota Wild for Martin Hanzal, Ryan White, and 2017 fourth-round pick
- Acquired Teemu Pulkkinen from Minnesota Wild for “future considerations”
- Acquired Joe Whitney from Colorado Avalanche for Brandon Ranford
The Coyotes messed up by not trading Radim Vrbata (and might have been able to get more for Stone), but put that aside and what they were able to get from the Minnesota Wild is pretty extraordinary. The team wanted to re-sign Hanzal, but when talks fell apart, it became a foregone conclusion that he would be moved. Yet, that inevitability never drove the prices down and the Wild ended up offering an amazing deal for the career Coyote. The Avalanche should take note because this is how you work the trade deadline as one the league’s worst teams. In exchange for impending free agents who were not coming back in Hanzal and Stone, Arizona ends up with five picks and two prospects (assuming, as it often does, that “future considerations” means nothing) and the team has suffered almost no loss. If GM John Chayka has decided to deal Vrbata, he likely would have added another pair of good picks to that mix, but as it stands, the Coyotes still did pretty well.
Trade Candidates: Radim Vrbata
With the trade deadline now just days away, we’re wrapping up our profiles of several players whose names are still on the trade block and are likely to be dealt by March 1st.
The Arizona Coyotes are 22-32-7 for 51 points, good enough for last place in the Pacific Division and second from the bottom in the NHL. They are in the bottom five in the league in both goals for and goals against, giving them a 29th-ranked -48 goal differential. The team is in a complete rebuild and has needs at every position. GM John Chayka has already dealt away young defenseman Michael Stone and just last night career-Coyote center Martin Hanzal.
So anyone who notices that the Coyotes’ top scorer is 35 years old and on a one-year, $1MM deal is right to assume that he is also on his way out of town. Radim Vrbata has returned to Arizona with a bang this season, leading a club that has been desperate for goals with a team-high 31 assists and 46 points and is second only to Hanzal with 15 goals and Oliver Ekman-Larsson in power play production. For a guy past his prime who scored only 27 points last season, Vrbata has had an excellent 2016-17 campaign and, like his other productive veteran teammates, has probably earned himself a ticket out of town.
Contract
Vrbata signed a one-year deal with Arizona this summer that carries $1MM base salary. However, there are some tricky bonus features to it, especially for contenders who are tight against the cap. Vrbata can earn an additional $2.25MM in performance bonuses, and in fact has already met several benchmarks. Vrbata is already owed $500K for playing in 30 games and another $500K for scoring more than 40 points. The remaining $1.25MM is tied to postseason performance, which he is guaranteed to miss out on if he remains with the Coyotes but would almost surely cash in on if traded to a contender. If Vrbata is traded, the new team will have to account for the salary cap repercussions beyond his $1MM cap hit – pro-rated to about $225K by Wednesday’s deadline – for the remainder of the year.
2016-17
The myth surrounding Vrbata has always been that he doesn’t perform outside of Arizona. Just a quick look at his career numbers shows that is untrue. Vrbata has had strong seasons, dating all the way back to the beginning of career, in Colorado, Chicago, and most recently Vancouver. However, there is no doubt that he has enjoyed the majority of his best seasons with the Coyotes. After struggling in 2015-16, the second year of a two-year deal with the Canucks, Vrbata returned home to the desert on a one-year deal in search of comeback season. He certainly found it, as his 46 points through 61 games put him on pace to come close to his career-high 63 point total from two years ago. Yet, he’s accomplished this on one of the worst teams in the league. What leaves many teams deep in thought is whether that scoring would continue on a superior team in contention for a title or whether it is a product of the situation and system.
Season Stats
61 GP: 15 goals, 31 assists, 46 points, -14 rating, 186 shots, 17:01 ATOI
Suitors
After their three biggest competitors in the Atlantic Division acquired help today, many have begun to doubt whether the Boston Bruins can hold true to their plan to stand pat at the Trade Deadline and not risk losing picks or prospects for no reason as they did last year. Count the Boston Globe’s Kevin Paul Dupont as one of those proponents, and he believes that Vrbata would be the perfect fit for the Bruins to add another scoring threat, specifically with Ryan Spooner and Frank Vatrano on the team’s third line, now that coach Bruce Cassidy has his more offensive-minded system in place. Despite the high prices right now, Dupont speculates that a second-round selection and another pick or prospect could get the job done. The Bruins are also one of only a few contenders that doesn’t have to worry much about the cap implications of acquiring Vrbata.
However, if the price for Vrbata is what Dupont suggests it may be, teams will worry about Vrbata’s cap hit and outside-Arizona consistency later. As more and more teams make additions, other will grow more interested in one of the top scoring threats on the market. Name a contender, and they will have likely put a call in to Chayka by Wednesday’s deadline, whether it be the Washington Capitals, who could use some more speed; the Pittsburgh Penguins or Columbus Blue Jackets, who both need some depth; the San Jose Sharks, who are still sorting out their top lines; or even the Chicago Blackhawks, who seem to always be in the mix and have history with Vrbata.
Likelihood Of A Trade
After moving on from Hanzal and Stone, both of whom are younger and have spent more time with the organization in recent years, it would be odd if the Coyotes didn’t part ways with Vrbata. Besides, there is nothing stopping them from re-signing him this summer if he wants, and Vrbata seems to be one of the few NHL players, along with teammate Shane Doan, who really enjoy playing in Arizona. Despite their immense depth in prospects, the Coyotes still have needs throughout the lineup and are in no position to hold on to trade-able assets for no reason. This team is still in full rebuild mode and will almost surely take whatever picks and prospects they can get for Vrbata, a fitting end to a rewarding one-year deal in 2016-17.