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Kyle Okposo

2016-17 Season Preview: New York Islanders

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With the start of the regular season today, we continue our look at every team in the NHL. Today, we look at the New York Islanders.

Last Season: 45-27-10 (100 points), Finished 4th in the Metropolitan Division. Defeated Florida 4-2 in first round; Lost to Tampa Bay 4-1 in the second round.

Remaining Cap Space: $1.39MM per CapFriendly

Key Newcomers: Andrew Ladd (free agent), Jason Chimera (free agent), Dennis Seidenberg (free agent).

Key Departures: Kyle Okposo (signed with Buffalo), Frans Nielsen (signed with Detroit), Matt Martin (signed with Toronto).

[Related: New York Islanders Depth Chart at Roster Resource]

Players To Watch: Mathew Barzal. There are a number of players to watch, but Barzal is exciting to watch and the 16th overall pick from 2015 will be counted on to help replace the quality of players lost to free agency. Barzal had 88 points (27-61) with Seattle in the WHL last season and added 26 points (5-21) in just 18 playoff games. He’s only 19, but Barzal has a chance to make an early mark on the Islanders’ season.

Key Storyline: Can the Isles make up all that they lost in the offseason? Losing Okposo, and Nielsen will test the Isles, who though driven by captain John Tavares, will certainly miss the production from both players and especially the two-way play from Nielsen, who will fill the same role in Detroit. The Islanders broke through the first round by stunning Florida, but were dispatched quickly by Tampa Bay. Ladd will certainly help, but his numbers fell a bit last season. Chimera will also chip in and Seidenberg will help shore up an already strong defensive corps. Another question mark is in net: what will they get out of Jaroslav Halak? Thomas Greiss was terrific last season, and it’s almost a 1A-1B argument with the netminders. Regardless, a step back wouldn’t be shocking as the Islanders lost a lot in the offseason but another playoff appearance shouldn’t be discounted with a team that has a lot of positives.

Snapshots: Lovejoy, Bennett, Canucks, Lombardi

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It’s not uncommon for players to reunite with former coaches and/or a general manager who has previously acquired that player at a previous stop. There is familiarity between coach and player and in the case of GMs, a belief in the abilities, sometimes untapped, of the player. That scenario played out this summer when the New Jersey Devils brought in two former Penguins, defenseman Ben Lovejoy in free agency and winger Beau Bennett via trade, reuniting them with general manager Ray Shero and head coach John Hynes. As Andrew Gross writes in his Fire and Ice blog, those additions should have come as no surprise to anyone familiar with the situation.

Shero spent eight seasons at the helm in Pittsburgh, selecting Bennett in the first-round of the 2010 entry draft. Clearly Shero still believes in Bennett’s upside as evidenced by the Devils giving up a third-round pick – a substantial asset – to Pittsburgh in exchange for the winger. Bennett scored six goals and 12 points in 33 regular season games in Pittsburgh in 2015-16 but appeared in just one postseason game as rookies Conor Sheary and Bryan Rust passed him on the team’s depth chart.

The Devils finished last in the NHL in goals scored during the 2015-16 season, and even after adding LW Taylor Hall in the summer, the team could use more scoring depth. Bennett hopes to be able to provide that and reward Shero’s faith in him.

Lovejoy cited the presence of Hynes as instrumental in his decision to sign with the Devils in the offseason.

“(Hynes) was my defense coach when I played in Wilkes-Barre. I played for him for a full season. He knows my game. It’s not going to be a surprise here. He knows exactly what he’s getting. That’s the reason I’m here. I know the coaching staff through Wilkes-Barre when Ray and (assistant GM) Tom (Fitzgerald) were running the organization the first time I was in Pittsburgh. Those are guys I trust and know. I’m here because they trust me.”

The veteran of eight NHL seasons will be asked to add leadership and experience to a young-ish defense corps that only has one other defender – Andy Greene – over the age of 26. Lovejoy doesn’t bring much of an offensive game to the table but has generally been a responsible blue liner and has posted a negative plus-minus rating just once in his career.

Elsewhere around the NHL:

  • GM Jim Benning and head coach Willie Desjardins are well aware the team has some ground to cover if they want to make the playoffs in 2016-17 after missing the postseason by 12 points this past season. But as Derek Jory of the Canucks official team site reports, both manager and coach are cautiously optimistic about the upcoming campaign. Desjardins: “We have more depth at every position and I feel we’re stronger at every position.” Benning, for his part, believes adding Loui Eriksson and Erik Gudbranson this summer along with a return to health for center Brandon Sutter will bring needed leadership as well as depth to the club: “We’ve added more depth to our group and adding Loui Eriksson, who I feel is a good player, a healthy Brandon Sutter, adding Erik Gudbranson; we’ve added some leadership in that room to help our young players along, so I’m real excited.” 
  • Two days after watching Team USA elimination from medal contention at the World Cup of Hockey, the man ultimately responsible for assembling the team, Kings GM Dean Lombardi, defended his roster construction strategy: “We’ve got some darn good players, but the reality is that matchup on a skill basis, if you want to go head-to-head and play a skill game, your odds of winning that game when you look at those matchups is not very good.” While Lombardi is likely correct in his assertion that Team USA wouldn’t have been able to match the skill and talent of the Canadiens no matter who they brought to the tournament, the choice to emphasize grit and heart ignores the NHL’s recent shift to a quicker game that values speed over other traits. Of course we’ll never know whether a Team USA roster including Tyler Johnson, Kyle Okposo, Kevin Shattenkirk and Phil Kessel – for example – would have been better equipped to beat Canada, but it’s clear they couldn’t have done any worse.

Kevin Allen’s Latest: Early Predictions, Pivotal Players

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Kevin Allen writes that the Detroit Red Wings are one of five teams in danger of missing the playoffs this season. Similar to his reports while speaking with PHR, Allen lists a questionable defensive corps, inconsistent goaltending and whether or not goal scorers like Tomas Tatar and Gustav Nyquist will find the net as they should as reasons why they may not make it back for a 26th straight season. Though he could see them sneaking in, the Wings are more vulnerable than ever before. It all depends on youth and everything coming together.

Allen also lists the Los Angeles Kings, Philadelphia Flyers, New York Islanders, and St. Louis Blues as candidates to possibly miss. With the Kings, Allen believes that the Calgary Flames and Arizona Coyotes, if better, could push the Kings who lost Milan Lucic to Edmonton. The Flyers, a surprise team in the playoffs last season, will have more competition in the Metropolitan Division while the Canadiens, who struggled after Carey Price’s injury, will also be better in the Atlantic, making the Eastern Conference a lot tougher.

The Islanders, Allen writes, lost some key players in Frans Nielsen, and Kyle Okposo. Though he calls it “sinful” to bet against a John Tavares led team, he still wonders if they grabbed enough to compensate for their losses. Finally, with the Blues, Allen reports that they took a “half step” back while division foes Chicago, Minnesota, and Nashville all improved. Further, Arizona and Calgary are better, crowding the already tight Western Conference. Losing David Backes, Brian Elliott, and Troy Brouwer also doesn’t help for depth purposes.

  • Earlier in the week, Allen also compiled a list of the ten most pivotal players heading into the season. Number one on that list is Kari Lehtonen, who will make an early push to be the primary option between the pipes for the Stars. Though he has struggled in the past, he has the opportunity to backstop a potential Stanley Cup contender. Should he not, the Stars have been an oft-reported  team to land Ben Bishop should he be available. Other names Allen included were Brian Campbell, a player he believes could solidify the Blackhawks defense, and Elliott, who could finally give the Flames a strong goaltending option.

Latest On Rasmus Ristolainen

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The Buffalo Sabres have had a roller coaster of an offseason. While the team successfully brought in Kyle Okposo and Dmitry Kulikov to shore up two weaknesses, they’ve also had the headaches caused by Evander Kane’s continuing legal issues, and were spurned by Jimmy Vesey after trading a third-round pick to obtain his negotiating rights. Now, you’d think all their attention would be on re-signing their two remaining restricted free agents, starting with their stud defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen.

Rasmus RistolainenNot so fast, as according to Sami Hoffren of Urheilusanomat (a Finnish sports publication) Ristolainen told him he or his camp “haven’t heard anything in a while” from the Buffalo side regarding a new contract and doesn’t expect to sign anything during the World Cup; Ristolainen is competing for Finland in the upcoming tournament.

After being drafted eighth overall in 2013, Ristolainen has shown a steady progression into one of the better right-handed defensemen in the league. With 41 points last season, he led the Buffalo blueline and ranked 23rd in the league among defensemen. Going forward, the 21-year old will be looking for a substantial bump if he’s to sign long-term, as he’s proven his ability at this level over the past two seasons.

Buffalo also has Zemgus Girgensons, another former first round pick who took a step backwards last season left to sign. Girgensons only scored 18 points after two consecutive seasons with at least 22, including a 15 goal output in just 61 games in 2014-15.  Both players should eventually re-sign, but it is getting later and later into the summer without any news.  The Sabres have just over $8MM in cap space currently, more than enough to get both under contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Potential 2016-17 Impact Rookies: Carlo, Fasching, Mantha, Matheson

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Pro Hockey Rumors continues our series profiling this year’s crop of rookies, now moving on to the Atlantic Division and four more first-year players who could make a splash this season. You can see the first posts covering the Metro Division here and here.

Brandon Carlo (Boston) – Even though Boston has an aging roster and failed to qualify for the postseason in either of the last two seasons, the Bruins surprisingly might not be integrating any rookie talent to the roster to start the 2016-17 campaign. The team does have some quality young talent coming down the pipeline but most of those prospects are probably a year away and Boston wouldn’t appear to have much room on their roster for a first-year player. But if one of the kids does give the Bruins a reason to carry a rookie this year it may well be defenseman Brandon Carlo.

Carlo was chosen by Boston in the second-round of the 2015 entry draft with the 37th overall selection on the heels of a 25-point campaign with TriCity of the WHL. Listed at 6-foot-5 and 203 pounds, Carlo certainly has NHL size. He currently projects as a smooth skating, defense-first blue liner with enough tools to project as an above-average offensive contributor if he develops further.

The incomparable Zdeno Chara still anchors the Bruins defense corps but is 39-years-old and has seen his best years are in the rear-view mirror. Torey Krug is probably the club’s #2 defenseman – if not #1 – and Adam McQuaid is solid enough. But outside of those three players, the Bruins currently have Kevan Miller, John-Michael Liles and Colin Miller in the top-six on their depth chart. Assuming Carlo shows well at training camp, he could easily force his way onto the roster ahead of any one of the latter three names.

Boston’s assistant general manager, Scott Bradley, spoke highly of Carlo earlier this summer when discussing some of the club’s prospects including; Carlo, Jakub Zboril and Jeremy Lauzon.

“Obviously [you had to like] what Carlo did when he was brought in [to Providence] at the end. It just bodes well for what we have coming this year. Zboril and Lauzon are probably going back to junior, but Carlo is going to get a long look.”

Bradley’s comments certainly suggest Carlo has a leg up on his fellow top defense prospects coming into camp.

Hudson Fasching (Buffalo) – Last season, Buffalo broke camp with two supremely talented rookies, Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart, in their opening night lineup. The duo would combine to score 47 goals and 98 points in 160 games for the Sabres. Hudson Fasching is unlikely to have that same type of impact in Buffalo this season but should earn a regular role and has the potential to provide some offense from the team’s bottom-six.

Fasching made his Buffalo debut last season, appearing in seven contests and netting his first career NHL goal. He signed his ELC with Buffalo after wrapping up his junior season at the University of Minnesota, where he scored 20 goals in 37 games for the Golden Gophers. Fasching also saw action in 10 games during the 2016 IIHF World Championship and tallied two assists playing for Team USA.

At 6-foot-2 and 216 pounds, Fasching has the size necessary to excel in a power forward role. Whether or not he can score enough to eventually fill a top-six scoring role with the Sabres is the question. But with talented players like Eichel, Reinhart, Ryan O’Reilly and Kyle Okposo around him, Fasching could produce points if he can develop chemistry with some combination of the aforementioned skaters.

Anthony Mantha (Detroit) – The development of Mantha could be key to Detroit’s ability to keep its 25-season playoff appearance streak in tact. Like Boston, Detroit’s core is aging with half of the 18 skaters expected to see regular ice time either turning or already at least 30-years-old during the 2016-17 season. Mantha has the skill and talent to join Dylan Larkin as future foundation pieces for Detroit.

Mantha got his first taste of NHL action last season, racking up two goals and three points in 10 games while averaging 11:42 of ice time per contest. He has also accumulated extensive pro experience playing for Detroit’s AHL affiliate in Grand Rapids. In 122 games with the Griffins, Mantha recorded 36 goals and 88 points. His experience playing for Red Wings head coach Jeff Blashill, both with Detroit and Grand Rapids, should benefit the big winger as he attempts to make the roster for the 2016-17 campaign.

The 6-foot-5, 214 pound Mantha is said to be an excellent skater with a terrific shot and release. Detroit is known for being patient with their prospects and allowing them to develop at a slow pace in the minor leagues. It’s possible Mantha will start the year in Grand Rapids but could position himself as one of the first players promoted in the event of an injury on the big club. If he does get his shot at some point with the Wings, Mantha could surprise some people.

Michael Matheson (Florida) – The Panthers boast a solid defense corps with plenty of options to flesh out the six man group. Keith Yandle, Aaron Ekblad, Alex Petrovic and Jason Demers comprise a skilled group of top-four blue liners while currently Mark Pysyk and Jakub Kindl are listed as the third pair on the team’s depth chart. Additionally, the team can also call on veteran Steven Kampfer to provide further depth.

There doesn’t seem to be room for a rookie to earn a spot but injuries are an unfortunate reality in hockey and Michael Matheson would likely be the first player Florida goes to if one of their regulars goes down. Matheson got into three games with the Panthers last year, going scoreless and averaging 17:32 of ice time. He’s also appeared in 59 AHL games over the last two seasons and recorded eight goals and 22 points during that time.

The former Boston College Eagle was the Panthers first-round pick, 23rd overall, in the 2012 draft. He’s known as an excellent skater and puck-handler with offensive instincts. With the NHL evolving into a speed and transition gme, Matheson would seem well-suited to one day play a regular role in the league. If things fall just right, that day could come as soon as this season.

Current Status Of Top-Ten Draft Picks

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As we approach a month since the NHL Entry Draft took place, teams have started to lock up their newest talents to lucrative deals and will soon begin the process of determining where they’ll play next season (if they haven’t already). For some, the contract seemed a mere formality and was signed within days of the draft; for others, their continuing negotiations are like torture for the fans that have already put in a pre-order for a dozen jerseys, and promised to name their next child Auston, Clayton, or Tyson.

Here is the current status of each of the top ten picks of the 2016 NHL draft:

(Annual average value (AAV) includes potential performance bonuses.)

  1. Auston Matthews (TOR) – Unsigned – Matthews continues to negotiate with the Maple Leafs on his entry-level deal, though all signs point to an amiable discussion so far. With GM Lou Lamoriello’s known opposition to incentive-laden contracts, perhaps the Maple Leafs and first-overall pick are working out something a little more creative to reward Matthews.
  2. Patrik Laine (WPG) – Signed, July 3rd: Three years, $3.575MM AAV – After moving up four spots in the draft lottery, Winnipeg was given the chance to draft a potential franchise-altering player in Laine, and they didn’t take long to lock him up.  The Finnish winger is an elite goal scoring talent that should step into the NHL right away and be a threat for the Calder trophy.  He came in just $200K under the maximum allowed for players signing their ELC.
  3. Pierre-Luc Dubois (CBJ) – Signed, June 29th: Three years, $3.425MM AAV – The Blue Jackets also moved up after winning a lottery spot, and were expected by many to pick Jesse Puljujarvi, the other Finnish winger who had long been a top choice by scouts.  Instead, the team looked down the middle and took the second ranked center in Dubois. Though he’ll probably head back to the QMJHL for another season, Dubois has an extremely high ceiling capable of being a number one center – Columbus will give him every chance to reach it.
  4. Jesse Puljujarvi (EDM) – Signed, July 13th: Three years, $3.425MM AAV – Even with the glut of young forwards Edmonton already had, they couldn’t pass up a chance at Puljujarvi after he fell to four.  They tried to trade the pick but couldn’t find fair value for it, and so added the young Finn to their group.  Perhaps that led them to the decision that Taylor Hall was expendable, as they have another elite talent on the wing (though he and Hall normally play opposite sides) that could jump to the NHL right away.
  5. Olli Juolevi (VAN) – Unsigned – The first defenseman taken in this year’s draft, Juolevi was a rising talent after his Memorial Cup victory with the London Knights. Capable of playing in any situation, Juolevi is as good of a defensive prospect as you can expect to get with the fifth overall pick. Perhaps not a franchise player, he’ll be a big part of Vancouver’s blueline for years to come – that is, whenever he signs his first contract.
  6. Matthew Tkachuk (CGY) – Signed, July 7th: Three years, $1.775MM AAV – The Flames’ front office must have been ecstatic when Tkachuk was still available when their turn came, as he’s exactly the type of player that President Brian Burke loves. Tkachuck, son of former NHL great Keith, agreed to a deal that will max-out under $2MM even if he hits all of his bonuses. If he turns into the player many believe him to be, at some point skating alongside new Flames’ right-winger Troy Brouwer would be an imposing sight to be sure.
  7. Clayton Keller (ARZ) – Unsigned – The Arizona Coyotes followed Columbus’ lead and took a center with their first pick of the round (they would later trade for the 16th overall pick to select D Jakob Chychrun) but haven’t signed the USA standout. As we reported yesterday, Keller is standing by his commitment to head to Boston University next season, though the Windsor Spitfires are doing everything they can to bring him to the OHL. He likely won’t sign with the Coyotes until he’s ready to make the jump from the NCAA.
  8. Alexander Nylander (BUF) – Signed, July 15th: Three years, $1.775MM AAV – The younger brother of Toronto Maple Leafs center William and son of former NHLer Michael, Nylander is expected to play a big part in the re-build for Buffalo over the next few seasons. With the team hitting rock bottom last year, they are on a steady climb upwards and have perhaps turned a corner with the huge signing of Kyle Okposo this summer. Nylander has impressed many at camp with his blend of skating ability and hard shot.
  9. Mikhail Sergachev (MTL) – Signed, July 1st: Three years, $1.775MM AAV – Sergachev is an interesting case, as he came over in the OHL’s import draft and made an impact in his rookie season, winning the Max Kaminsky trophy as the league’s top blueliner. Many think he’ll head back to Windsor for another season, but there has been rumbling that he could crack the Canadiens roster as soon as this year. The left-handed shooting Russian is a born powerplay quarterback, and may eventually slide in next to Shea Weber on the top unit.
  10. Tyson Jost (COL) – Unsigned – Colorado reached into the BCHL to select Jost, an elite offensive talent out of Penticton, if a little undersized. He’ll be heading to the NCAA this year as well, as he’s committed to the University of North Dakota for 2016-17. This is the usual route for players out of Penticton, as since the CHL is deemed a professional league by the NCAA, the BCHL is the highest level of hockey in North America allowed before heading to college. Like Keller, don’t expect Jost to sign anytime soon.

For the other twenty picks of the first round, only Jake Bean and Julien Gauthier have signed as of yet. Many of the players selected here won’t sign a contract until their 2016-17 assignment/league has been decided. Keep an eye on PHR and Roster Resource to track when they sign and where they’re headed next season.

Top-Line Options Remaining In Free Agency

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For many teams, free agency is a place to find a player or two to slot into your top two lines, to supplement the core you already have in place.  Edmonton went out and got Milan Lucic, to add some veteran toughness while replacing the outgoing offensive contribution of Taylor Hall. Vancouver added Loui Eriksson in a questionable move for a team who hasn’t quite decided what direction they’re headed in, and Buffalo brought on Kyle Okposo to ride shotgun with their young talent up front.

Now that the madness has died down, the market for these top-six players is extremely thin, with only a few names having established themselves there in the past.  With Shane Doan surely re-signing with the Coyotes, and Patrik Elias looking as though it’s either Devils or retirement, two of the most well known names among this group aren’t going anywhere.  Here are the other possibilities for a team to add to their top-six:

(number in parentheses represents ranking on our Top 50 UFAs)

  1. Jiri Hudler (18) – Though Hudler is now 32-years old and took a significant step back last season, he still represents one of the better second-line options available. His 46 points in 2015-16 split between the Flames and Panthers were a disappointing total for a player coming off a 31-goal, 76 point season but still ranked him right alongside players like Andrew Ladd (46 points, $38.5MM) and David Backes (45 points, $30MM).
  2. Kris Versteeg (25) – While Versteeg is probably better suited as a third-liner on a good team, he has shown the ability to move up in the lineup consistently in the past.  A three-time twenty goal scorer, Versteeg has scored at least 34 points in each of his seven healthy seasons.  He can play either wing, and brings a level of physicality to his game as well.
  3. Radim Vrbata (27) – Vrbata is clearly on the downswing of his career, having put up just 27 points and a whopping -30 mark last season.  Now 35, he’ll look to sign a cheap deal and could be a nice value signing for a team pressed against the cap. Remember, this is a guy who has over 250 career NHL goals, and is just one season removed from the second 30-goal season of his career.
  4. Alex Tanguay (33) – Though he’s now 37, Tanguay continues to produce like a second-line center, putting up another 35 point campaign despite having a much reduced role after a trade to Arizona.  For a team looking to shelter their young forwards, a veteran like Tanguay can provide some offensive punch on a cheap, short-term deal. He’ll likely break 900 points in what has been an excellent career for the former Avalanche stalwart.
  5. Brandon Pirri (NR) – Despite Pirri’s reputation as a bottom-six forward, some teams might see the former Panther as a second-line option, due to his previous goal scoring ability.  Pirri has potted 36 goals over the past two seasons, including 22 in 2014-15. The problem is that he’s racked up just 17 assists over the same time.  He was an outstanding scorer in his AHL career, and is still just 25-years old, meaning that taking a shot on him might not be the worst gamble among the remaining options.

The Signing Bonus: Rise Of The Buyout-Proof Contract

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The life of an NHL agent is tough. As the league continues to tweak (or totally overhaul) their CBA each few seasons, changing contract regulations and offering teams different ways of structuring deals, agents are always trying to find ways to circumvent them and get the best offers for their clients.

With teams becoming more and more willing to use buyouts to rid themselves of the horrible contracts that they sign on July 1st – famously a day of simultaneous excitement and regret – agents around the league needed to find a way to protect their clients from losing out on a third (or sometimes two-thirds) of the salary the sides agreed on.

The most recent buyout window, which lasted from June 15th to 30th, saw a dozen NHL players bought out, including household names like Thomas Vanek and Dennis Seidenberg. While some fans may see this as an opportunity for a player to earn two contracts at the same time – Vanek was signed on by Detroit for $2.6MM on July 1st, more than the $1.5MM he surrendered in his buyout – most take it as a personal slight, an indictment of their play or character. Regardless, agents continue to try and secure guarantees for their clients, instead of leaving the power in the hands of the league’s general managers.

Enter the signing bonus, this summer’s contract-du-jour. All across the league, big name free agents have inked deals that will see them paid almost entirely in signing bonuses, with very little actual salary being given out each season.  Take Loui Eriksson for instance:

2016-17 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2017-18 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2018-19 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $6MM
2019-20 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $4MM
2020-21 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $3MM
2021-22 – Salary: $3MM, Bonus: $1MM

While Eriksson’s cap-hit sits at $6MM per year, he’ll make more than that in bonuses alone each of the next three seasons. There are a couple of reasons why this would benefit the player.

For one, everyone loves getting a big check rather than a weekly salary – who would turn down a piece of paper with six zeros?  As any economist will tell you, money in hand is worth more than money promised to come, and just as teams in other sports are deferring payments for this reason long into the future, having money up front is actually more valuable for the player in question.

It’s in the buyout rules that the contract really holds value though, as – hinted at by the title – these contracts are basically buyout-proof.  Under the current CBA, buyouts are calculated by taking two-thirds of the remaining salary owed, not including signing bonuses, and spreading it out over twice the remaining contract length. The new cap hit is determined by subtracting the savings from the average annual value of the deal which includes signing bonuses.

This means that if the Canucks were to want to buy out Eriksson after say, the third year of his new deal, they’ll only be saving $333K of cap hit in 2020-21, an insignificant portion of the $6MM number. That last season of $3MM is a bit better for the Canucks (they would save $2MM of his cap hit), but structuring it this way almost guarantees that Eriksson will collect at least $35MM of his deal – more than 97%. It’s just not worth it to buy him out any sooner than his final year.

Andrew Ladd, Milan Lucic, Kyle Okposo all signed deals heavily impacted by signing bonuses, protecting them against a buyout through all but the very end of their agreements.  Even Matt Martin, a career fourth liner secured a $10MM deal that is 65% bonus.  He’ll only be collecting $750K in salary in years three and four of the deal.

While this doesn’t necessarily mean trouble for clubs around the league, you can bet the owners and NHLPA will take a look at it when negotiations begin on the new CBA.  The current agreement expires in 2022, though the two sides have the option to end it a year earlier.

Just as the league has used cap recapture and contract limits to close loopholes in the past, be sure that if they want to continue to have the option to buyout bad contracts they’ll remove this option from the equation.  Creating a rule that would make signing bonuses only be able to hit a certain percentage of each season’s salary would be the easy fix, but expect push-back from the NHLPA.

Even if they do end up closing it, agents will work on another way to get their clients the best possible guarantee; they always seem to be one step ahead of the league.

Okposo Signs For Seven Years With Sabres

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As reported by Arthur Staple, another talked-about deal has been confirmed, as Kyle Okposo signs a seven-year, $42MM deal with the Buffalo Sabres. The high-scoring winger stays in-state, but not in-division, moving from the Islanders in Brooklyn to the Sabres upstate.

Okposo has quietly blossomed into one of the NHL’s top scoring right wingers in recent years.  Last season, he picked up 22 goals and 42 assists, good for sixth in points among NHL RW’s.  That was enough to earn him the #2 ranking on PHR’s Top 50 free agents list.  He spent a lot of his time alongside John Tavares and while some believe that doing so led to a lot of his points but Okposo has enough of a proven track record to show he’s a legitimate top liner in his own right.

Over the last three seasons, Okposo has averaged 22 goals and 39 assists.  One area of concern is that over that span, he has missed 34 games due to various injuries and has a bit of a reputation for being an injury prone player.  Still, at just 28 years of age and the fact he isn’t an overly physical player, there shouldn’t be much worry that his body will break down any time soon.  Okposo should slot in as the top right winger for the Sabres next season and for several years to come.

Free Agent Profile: Frans Nielsen

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When you talk about free agents from Long Island this offseason, the conversation immediately goes to Kyle Okposo, the 28-year old winger who tied Steven Stamkos in points last season, or to Matt Martin, the bang-and-crash bottom six guy who everyone seems to want to add. Mostly forgotten, there is another UFA coming out of New York who should be commanding some attention.

Frans Nielsen has always been overlooked, perhaps because of his slender frame, or his Danish heritage – Denmark isn’t known for a flood of NHL players, though there have been some excellent ones – starting on draft day when he was selected deep into the third round. Nielsen has never earned more than $2.75MM in a single season, choosing to re-sign with the team who drafted him well before he became an unrestricted free agent in 2012.

He shouldn’t be overlooked any longer, as the 32-year old has put together an excellent career and comes into this offseason as a top-5 free agent, now that Stamkos and Yandle have both signed.

Potential Suitors

With, perhaps fittingly, almost no news coming out about Nielsen speaking with teams other than the Islanders, it’s a bit of a mystery where the Dane will finally end up.  There are however a few teams who seem to fit with his ability and position perfectly.

In our UFA piece we had Nielsen going to the Red Wings, and after Stamkos re-signed this afternoon that seems even more a possibility.  The club already has a young, up and coming center in Dylan Larkin who may be ready for the top line as soon as next season, so may not want to commit to the long-term deal that the other top option, David Backes, is surely to command.

While the Minnesota Wild have a young group of forwards who have shown the ability to play in the top six, they’ve also experimented with both Charlie Coyle and Mikael Granlund on the wing. If they think they’re more suited there, Nielsen makes a good choice as a steady veteran to put between them on the second line.

Expected Contract

Nielsen will be overlooked no more, as he hits this summer looking for one last big deal to finish his career on. If Backes goes early and the rest of the league views him as the next best option down the middle (which they should), he’ll look for a four or five year deal somewhere between $4.5 and $5MM per season.  If he settles for a shorter term, he might be able to push just above that $5MM mark, but it would be very surprising to see him get close to $6MM.

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