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Free Agent Profile: Thomas Vanek

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We are a week into free agency and a top ten member of the class is still available. Thomas Vanek, ranked eighth among PHR’s Top 50 Free Agents, still remains unsigned to the surprise of many. Vanek was a free agent last summer as well, after having the final season of a three-year $19.5MM contract with the Minnesota Wild bought out. While there were questions about his game then as well, and an apparent lack of interest that led to a one-year, $2.6MM deal with the Red Wings (a 60% drop in value from his $6.5MM AAV with the Wild), there was still sufficient enough demand that Detroit felt they had to lock him up right away on July 1st. This year? Not so much.

The strange thing about Vanek’s 2017 scenario is that he is coming off a strong, redeeming campaign. Rather than last summer, when he was fresh off the worst season of his career and a buyout, Vanek instead entered the free agent market this year with a 38-point season under his belt, seven more points in six less games than 2015-16. Vanek played extremely well in Detroit, posting 15 goals and 23 assists in 48 games, creating plenty of buzz around his trade deadline status. Although rumors swirled that Vanek would like to re-sign with the Red Wings, the team nevertheless got what they could for him, sending Vanek to the Florida Panthers for Dylan McIlrath and a third-round draft pick. In Florida, Vanek added two goals and eight assists in 20 games, but it wasn’t enough for the Panthers to make the playoffs and Vanek was out of time to show off for teams in need of scoring this summer.

Apparently, he needed to do more in 2016-17. With 697 points in 885 NHL games, Vanek’s history as an elite scorer is well established. A two-time 40-goal scorer and power play wizard, who has twice in his career topped a point-per-game pace for a whole season, there is little doubt about Vanek’s track record of creating offense. However, there are questions as to just how fast that offensive ability is slowing down. Vanek is certainly no longer a threat for 40 or even 30 goals, nor does he sit atop the league in man-up production any more. While he seemingly proved in Detroit that he can still deliver 40 or 50 points, he also looked slower up and down the ice and lacked the same quickness and creativity in the offensive zone that he used to have. The lack of interest could also be due to a noticeable drop-off in defensive ability. Vanek was never a Selke candidate, but he has always played a sound two-way game. As he has slowed down the past two years, his defensive stats have dropped off and he often looked solely focused with keeping up on offense, rather than playing a complete game. Endurance, and all that it entails in the back-and-forth game of hockey, simply seems to be an issue for Vanek and is unlikely to improve.

Nonetheless, 48 points is 48 points and there is a reason why Vanek was ranked #8 out of all free agents. The shooting ability and offensive instincts are still there for the 33-year-old, and 45-year-old Jaromir Jagr is still making that skill set work in the NHL. It’s only a matter of time before Vanek signs somewhere, but just like last summer, it appears as if it could be another bargain for a player whose age and pace of play seemed to be blown out of proportion while his experience and offensive contribution are under-rated.

Potential Suitors

We originally projected that Vanek would return to the Florida Panthers, who were in need of scoring help, especially with Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith now in Las Vegas. However, Dale Tallon and the Panthers went in a different direction, bringing back Evgeni Dadonov from the KHL and inking a different veteran scorer, Radim Vrbata. Like Vrbata and Jagr, Vanek seems best-suited for one-year or short-term deals the rest of the way, especially if he’s struggling to establish his value. Who could use a short-term scorer? A return to Detroit could make sense. The fit worked out great and there were talks of an extension prior to the deadline trade, so the two sides might see if Lightning can strike twice. The Red Wings lack much cap space and should be rebuilding, but GM Ken Holland might have missed that memo. Another possibility could be the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks are still a contender out West, just one year removed from a Stanley Cup appearance, but have had a very quiet off-season and just lost a high-scoring veteran winger in Patrick Marleau. This year’s Western Conference Cup qualifier, the Nashville Predators, traded away a key forward in Colin Wilson and have more than enough cap space to squeeze Vanek in if they so choose. The Boston Bruins could use another scoring threat in the top nine and they might not mind having Vanek, notorious for his strong play against Boston during his years with the Sabres and Canadiens, on their side for once. Finally, don’t rule out the Los Angeles Kings, who certainly don’t need to get slower, but who surely need more scoring with few dependable options left on the market.

Expected Contract

We predicted that Vanek would sign a one-year, $3MM deal this off-season, a logical next step after a bounce back season on a one-year, $2.6MM contract. That range still seems reasonable, unless the market really is as quiet as it seems and no one is willing to pony up that kind of money. The affordable contracts signed by aging scorers like Kris Versteeg (#26) and Ales Hemsky (#44) combined with the availability of Jagr (#13), Drew Stafford (#21), and Jiri Hudler (#40), doesn’t help Vanek’s cause. He’s not ready to retire and he won’t move overseas, but don’t be surprised if Vanek remains unsigned, holding out for market value, before finally signing for less than he did last summer.

Kings Looking To Shift Course

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After missing the playoffs two seasons in a row, the L.A. Kings have fallen pretty hard from grace. After winning the cup twice in three years, it’s been one bad story after another for the team from Hollywood. Dustin Brown was stripped of the captaincy and relegated to bottom-six duties, not long after former key contributor Mike Richards found himself terminated due to a combination of on-ice, off-ice, and salary issues. Matt Greene had to be bought out entirely. Marian Gaborik is 35, signed for four more seasons, and just put together two underwhelming performances back-t0-back. The defense has gotten more top-heavy, and after losing Brayden McNabb to Vegas in the expansion draft, is set to lose another valuable piece. The head coach who earned the franchise its two rings was fired and a re-tread coach from Philadelphia will get his opportunity in 2017-18.

In an article with the L.A. Times written by Helene Elliotts, GM Rob Blake details the change in philosophy the Kings will need to adopt if they are going to find success in the near future. Ultimately, he wants to predicate the team’s identity more on speed, while staying true to their defensive style. Los Angeles has played a heavy, physical, stifling game to get their championships, and it appears that Blake is shifting away from that mantra next season. He isolated the “core” of the team as Anze Kopitar, Tanner Pearson, Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli, Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin, and Jonathan Quick. It might be drawn from his sentiment thatt other, more expendable pieces that may be available if the Kings continue to merely tread water.

Los Angeles did make a decent bargain-bin signing in Mike Cammalleri, who was sunk by a capsized New Jersey Devils squad last season. The potential for him to rebound and be productive is quite high, but it may not be nearly enough. The Kings beat out only Philadelphia, Colorado, New Jersey and Vancouver in terms of fewest goals scored. Carter and Pearson were the only twenty-goal scorers on the team. Guaranteed offense is an absolute need, and although former coach Darryl Sutter’s systems were a component of the struggles, the team needs more reliable production. Their defense is still the team’s greatest organizational strength, but it does strike some as odd that a player like McNabb wasn’t shuffled elsewhere for scoring help rather than being sacrificed for nothing to expansion.

If the Kings decide at this late stage to go the free agency route, their options are solid if a bit older. If speed is the determinant factor, that may seem to rule out the likes of Jaromir Jagr and Jarome Iginla, while leaving the possibility of a Thomas Vanek signing open. More likely, however, the Blake and the Kings will need to probe the trade market. From there, the team will likely need to surrender future assets if they hope to receive solid scoring in a returning package. The team could take a lot of offensive pressure off of Kopitar (who himself is more of a two-way player) if they could swing a trade for a solid center. Matt Duchene is likely out of their price range, and Alex Galchenyuk’s value just skyrocketed. The bottom-six wingers are dreadfully lacking in experience, so an upgrade to the third line couldn’t hurt. Cap space is tight, however, as the team will only have over $5.5 MM after re-signing RFAs Nick Shore and Kevin Gravel. It may take outside-the-box thinking to bring the Kings back into contender status, but Blake seems primed to make moves, albeit on his own timeline.

East Notes: Jagr, Dadonov, Callahan, Penguins

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45 year old winger Jaromir Jagr is still looking for a new home after it was recently revealed that the Panthers wouldn’t be bringing him back for 2017-18.  One place he won’t be going is Philadelphia, one of his former teams.  When asked by Sam Carchidi of the Philadelphia Inquirer about bring the veteran back for another stint with the Flyers, GM Ron Hextall had the following to say:

“That’s just not the direction we’re headed in now. I have a great deal of respect for his accomplishments and everything he’s done in the game, but, again, it’s just not the direction we’re going.”

Jagr is the third highest scoring forward remaining on the open market after posting 46 points (16-30-46) in 82 games with the Panthers last season.  He’s coming off a contract that saw him earn $5.5MM between his salary and games played bonuses and will likely have to come in below that wherever he signs on for next year.

Other notes from the East:

  • Panthers GM Dale Tallon envisions big things for recent acquisition Evgeni Dadonov. He told reporters, including Harvey Fialkov of the Sun-Sentinel, that Dadonov projects to play on their top line alongside Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau.  The 28 year old struggled in his first stint with Florida back from 2009-2011 but is coming off a career season in the KHL where he finished fifth in league scoring with 66 points (30-36-66) in 53 games.
  • After missing 64 games with recurring hip problems last season, Lightning winger Ryan Callahan told Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times that those issues are completely behind him and that are no limitations. Tampa Bay would undoubtedly welcome a healthy Callahan in their lineup to get some bang for their buck; he currently is their second highest paid forward and still has three years left on his deal with a $5.8MM cap charge.
  • The Penguins plan to replace Nashville-bound center Nick Bonino via the trade route, GM Jim Rutherford noted to reporters, including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. He acknowledged that he has been in talks with other teams but so far the prices have been too high for his liking.  Rutherford added that he’s in no rush to find the right fit and that he would be okay if it took until sometime into next season before they acquire Bonino’s replacement.

Best Of What’s Left

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As we close in on the end of an only moderately crazy July 1st, there are quite a few names that remain from our Top-50 Free Agents list. Here are the best of what remains, and an update on each:

 

Alexander Radulov (#2) – Radulov is apparently playing two serious suitors off one another – Montreal and Dallas. Nothing has substantially changed since that was reported by Pierre Lebrun at mid-day. Perhaps a deal is sorted out tomorrow, but the main issue seems to be term. Radulov had a solid season in Quebec, but perhaps his Nashville baggage is scaring the GMs away from a long-term commitment. Many might cite the Russian factor here as the holdup, but the bigger deal is that Radulov only has one successful NHL season under his belt this decade. 54 points is impressive, but it’s a small sample size.

Patrick Marleau (#6) – The longer this trails on, the more likely it would seem that Marleau is headed away from Northern California for the first time in his career. We at PHR generally believed he would remain, but other teams are pushing hard for his services. Darren Dreger reported hours ago that four teams were in the mix – San Jose, Dallas, Anaheim, and Toronto. Dallas seems intent on landing a big name, and Toronto has been active all afternoon. It’s hard to see Marleau going to the rival Ducks, but anything can happen. Kevin Kurz of NBC Sports California believes that the other franchises have offered the veteran winger more lucrative contract opportunities. It’s uncertain how much of this is posturing for a better deal from the Sharks, or whether he is serious about moving on.

Thomas Vanek (#9) – Vanek is apparently still in talks with multiple suitors, according to the Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta. There hasn’t been much smoke around Vanek, but I would expect things to heat up in the coming days. Although he’s slowed a step, he’s arguably one of the best forwards available and he won’t be exorbitantly expensive. He’s productive at 5 on 5 and he would be a solid fit in many teams’ top-six forward groups. Florida seems content to move on, but that could always change.

Jaromir Jagr (#13) – Perhaps the ageless wonder finally has worn out his welcome. According to his own twitter, he hasn’t received any calls. It’s shocking to see him go without any substantial interest, because he can certainly still produce. In this copycat league, it seems every franchise is trying to mimic the speedy model that has seen recent success. Perhaps a slowed Jagr is becoming a tougher sell. He’s definitely going to settle for less money than he was hoping for.

Andrei Markov (#14) – With the reports that Markov wants a two year contract with a $6 MM AAV, it’s not surprising that Montreal walked away. With Karl Alzner now in the fold, they have a lot of money already allocated to the blueline. They could always circle back, but Markov still provides a unique and valued skillset at his age and is likely to find a home elsewhere. Any team with a poor powerplay could be the one that gives the old-timer the contract he wants.

Mike Fisher (#18)  – With Nashville acquiring Nick Bonino, and hinting that he will be their second line center, it seems a safe bet that Fisher may retire. If he wants to return, it would be on a sweetheart deal. Fisher has shown little interest in moving away from Tennessee.

Drew Stafford (#21) – Stafford had a rough year, but it’s difficult to imagine he won’t be a bargain for whichever team snags him. His 21 points last season through 58 games were easily a career low, but he’s only one year removed from a 21-goal season in Winnipeg.  Boston GM Don Sweeney hasn’t cut off ties, apparently, according to CBS Boston’s Matt Kalman. Other than that, we’re pretty much in the dark. At this point, he’d be a low-risk top-nine player for any team looking to fill out their forward corps. Interest should pick up.

Cody Franson (#22) – Franson is arguably the most coveted defenseman that remains, as he performed admirably on a dreadful Sabres squad. It will be interesting to see the sort of money he will command. Today has been a day where both the money and term for most contracts has been remarkably reasonable. As the free agent bonanza drags on into day two, it begs the question of whether the prices will come down ever further. Franson can step in and contribute on a second pairing, but teams should be wary of giving him too many minutes. As a right-handed shot, his value is only increased, but will teams who missed out on Alzner and Shattenkirk be interested in allocating a good portion of that money to Franson instead?

 

Panthers Notes: Werier, Haley, Jagr, Demers

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The Florida Panthers made official this morning the firing of Assistant GM Stever Werier, as Dale Tallon continues to undo moves made by the previous administration, now including the hiring of Werier. TSN’s Bob McKenzie, who first reported the front office change, states that the order may have come down even prior to last week’s Expansion Draft, but is just now being made public. The move corresponds with Tallon’s recent hiring of Chris Pronger and Bryan McCabe to front office positions, as the old guard is being moved out and Tallon is taking the team in a new direction.

  • Part of that new direction is adding more toughness to the lineup, which Tallon plans to do today with the expected signing of enforcer Micheal Haley. TSN’s Bob McKenzie confirmed that the Panthers plan to sign Haley, 31, when free agency opens. The veteran forward has only played in 130 NHL games, but skated in a career-high 58 contests with the San Jose Sharks last season, recording 12 points and 128 penalty minutes.
  • Another new movement in Florida is a desire to get quicker. According to TSN’s Darren Dreger, that means that 45-year-old legend Jaromir Jagr will have to move on to yet another destination if he wishes to continue his career. Dreger’s TSN colleague Pierre LeBrun has stated that Jagr has cut ties with the Panthers and is on the hunt for a new team to give him a chance at extending his hockey playing days.
  • One player sticking with the Panthers (for now) is defenseman Jason Demers. The veteran righty, a major 2016 free agency acquisition, has been on the trade block this past week, but Pierre LeBrun reports that he used his No-Trade Clause to nix a deal with the Vancouver Canucks earlier this week. Florida seems intent on moving Demers, but he seems reluctant to move. The impending impasse could prove to be an intriguing story this off-season.
  • Two players the Panthers do want around are prospects Reece Scarlett and Chase Balisy. TVA’s Renaud Lavoie revealed that the young defenseman and forward have inked new deals with Florida as of this morning. Both one-year and two-way, Scarlett will make $650K at the NHL level, while Balisy will make $675K.

Toronto, Nashville Among Teams Checking In On Joe Thornton

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Ranked #5 on our annual list of Top 50 Free Agents, “Jumbo” Joe Thornton is receiving interest from all around the league. Pierre LeBrun of TSN reports that the Toronto Maple Leafs and Nashville Predators are among those teams, though cautions that he could still easily return to San Jose.

Thornton will turn 38 on July 2nd, and has had one of the greatest careers in the history of the NHL. Snubbed from the Top-100 list, the San Jose pivot is 22nd in all-time scoring with 1,391 points, and ranks 13th in assists. In both categories he trails on Jaromir Jagr among active players, and could easily find himself moving dramatically up the list in the next couple of seasons.

Any team after him will have to be wary of what they’re buying though, as Thornton’s production took a sharp decline last year and he underwent surgery following the year. He had been playing on a torn MCL and ACL throughout the playoffs, and even with his advanced fitness and relative durability that should give pause to inquiring teams. At 38, his mobility might not bounce-back as well as it used to, and you could be left with an expensive 35+ contract on the books.

Free Agent Focus: Florida Panthers

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The free agent period is now less than one week away from opening up and there are several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Here is a breakdown of the Florida Panthers’ free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: D Alex Petrovic only had 1 goal and 13 assists last season, but his possession stats were remarkably solid among his peers at 50.8% Corsi For. He earned $1.05 MM on his last contract, and he is due at least a slight raise. His size (6’4″) and physicality is an important asset to round out the bottom pairings of the defensive corps, even if management isn’t expecting him to light the world on fire. D Mark Pysyk, also 25 years old, has shown a bit more potential. He has less of a shutdown presence, but makes up for it by contributing to the offense on occasion. He moves the puck well with a solid if unremarkable first pass – which in today’s possession-centric NHL tends to increase value. Pysyk still hasn’t put it all together, but he’ll be a useful cog for Florida going forward. Interestingly enough, Florida’s defense is so sparse that both Pysyk and Petrovic were protected.

Other RFA’s: G MacKenzie Weegar.

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: F Jaromir Jagr. Jagr is certainly on the downside of his career, but he still can produce points at a decent clip. He’s been a mainstay of the Panthers offense for the last two-and-a-half seasons. He only netted 16 goals, but added 30 assists to reach a reasonable 46 points. However, his contract was a tad overpriced for a 45 year old, at a $4 MM cap hit. Management apparently wants the veteran back on the squad next season according to a report by the Miami Herald’s George Richards. Richards states that the price would need to come down, but there is a solid chance he could get last year’s salary from another team desperate for production. If Florida truly wants to bring back the battle-tested winger (who sits 3rd in all-time goals), they will need to find room within their internal cap structure. His speed is certainly becoming an issue, and it remains to be seen how integral he is perceived internally.

F Thomas Vanek doesn’t look likely to make a return to the Sunshine State, as he is quite arguably the 4th best winger available after Alexander Radulov, Justin Williams, and Patrick Marleau. The chances of seeing Vanek seeing a contract similar to his $6.5 MM earned the last three seasons are almost completely non-existent, but he could easily fetch near $5 MM offer for multiple years from an offense-starved squad. Vanek did net 48 points last season, but he has the potential to do more. Vanek will almost surely find his kindest offers elsewhere. He only netted two goals in 20 games after being acquired from the Detroit Red Wings.

Other UFA’s: F Micheal Scarbossa, D Jakub Kindl, G Sam Brittain, F Kyle Rau, F Brody Sutter, G Adam Wilcox, F Chase Balisy, F Graham Black, F Paul Thompson, D Reece Scarlett, G Colin Stevens, F Steven Hodges, D Brent Regner.

Projected Cap Space: The Panthers do have slightly over $20 MM in cap space if they were to re-sign no one, but they are almost certain to re-sign Pysyck and Petrovic to short-term deals. Weegar has also been extended a qualifying offer, but it will likely be a two-way deal. Assuming they make a combined $4 MM, GM Dale Tallon will likely have about $16 MM in space with 16 roster players accounted for.  His main concern has to be solidifying the defense so a repeat of last year doesn’t happen. However, with Jon Marchessault and Reilly Smith inexplicably shipped to Vegas, and likely one of Jagr and Vanek headed to other destinations, Tallon needs to add solid secondary scoring. It’s expected that Florida will be active on July 1st and into the Summer, especially with so many expiring organizational contracts – they only have 26 of the allotted 50 as of today. The organization has tried to revamp on the fly, but they will need a remarkably successful summer to re-coup all that is being lost especially in light of the meager talent available in the UFA pool. The biggest money constraint is whatever ownership places the internal cap at, which is unbeknownst to the league at large.

Florida Panthers Remain In Talks With Jaromir Jagr

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Though there wasn’t much doubt, Pierre LeBrun of TSN reports that the Florida Panthers are still talking to Jaromir Jagr about a potential return. The 45-year old remains interested in playing, and the team has been a good fit for him as he closes out his historic career. Jagr is coming off a contract which paid him $4MM in base salary, with up to $1.52MM in performance bonuses.

Jagr has previously stated that he wants to play to 50 (even joking about 60 at one point), and after another effective season in which he put up 46 points he has a chance to do it. Amazingly, his puck-protection style has been able to transcend eras and lockouts and still makes him an excellent possession player, even if his foot speed and straight power game have started to diminish.

The Panthers, looking to bounce back from a disappointing season, will hopefully welcome Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau back for full seasons and with it Jagr’s re-signing could make sense. The Cats don’t have a ton of cap-space to work with, but should be able to fit in a performance-laden contract once again. Since Jagr is (well) over 35, he’s eligible for performance bonuses and should expect them to be a big part of any deal he signs around the league.

As LeBrun points out, any deal with Jagr will have to wait until after the expansion draft as they wouldn’t want to waste a protection slot on the NHL’s second-all-time point leader. At 1,914 points, he doesn’t have anyone left to catch—unless he does play until 60, in which case he’d have an outside shot at catching Wayne Gretzky and his 2,857—but could continue to put himself out of reach of other players in the future. With another full season, he would become the all-time leader in games played; he currently sits at 1,711 just 56 behind Gordie Howe for the record.

Expansion Primer: Florida Panthers

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

After cracking 100 points and winning the Atlantic Division in 2015-16, injuries and overall under-performance sent the Panthers tumbling back to Earth in 2016-17. Florida finished with over 20 points less, at 81, good enough for sixth in the division and a top-ten draft slot. Yet, hopes remain high in Sunrise, FL as the Panthers are still a team built around young stars that has just begun to reach its potential. With Huberdeau, Trochek, Barkov, Bjugstad, Ekblad, and Matheson forming a core group under 25 with top prospects like forwards Henrik Borgstrom and Adam Mascherin and goalie Sam Montembeault still on the way, Florida only has to worry about adding complementary pieces to a talented young group.

Yet, the shadow of the Expansion Draft still looms large over the Panthers. With so many good, young players under contract, the expansion process will not be easy for the Cats. They may be able to protect their best young players, but they are nearly guaranteed to lose a solid complementary veteran.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Reilly Smith, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad, Jussi Jokinen, Derek MacKenzie, Colton Sceviour, Jonathan Marchessault, Steven Hodges, Michael Sgarbossa, Graham Black

Defense
Keith Yandle (NMC), Aaron Ekblad, Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, Mark Pysyk, MacKenzie Weegar, Reece Scarlett

Goaltender
Roberto Luongo, James Reimer

Notable Exemptions

Jared McCann, Denis Malgin, Michael Matheson, Ian McCoshen

Key Decisions

The Panthers don’t have an easy decision to make at any position group. They face the risk of losing a prominent forward, defenseman, or goalie if they don’t read the Vegas Golden Knights correctly. Perhaps the biggest name who may be left unprotected in net: potential future Hall of Fame goalie Roberto Luongo. Many were surprised when the Panthers brought back Luongo, and with him the remainder of a 12-year, $64MM contract, in 2014. Even more were surprised when, nonetheless, Florida signed James Reimer to a five-year, $17MM contract on July 1st of last year. That move seems like it has partly been leading up to this point. While Luongo and Reimer each started 39 games in 2016-17 with very similar records, Reimer had the edge on Luongo in performance statistics. While this was their first season sharing the net, it is now the second season in a row in which Reimer has outplayed Luongo. It seems very unlikely that Florida will choose to protect the 38-year-old Luongo, who is under contract at $5.33MM per year until the age of 43, over the 29-year-old Reimer, with a more reasonable $3.4MM cap hit over that same span of time. Luongo will thus likely be one of the biggest names under contract and available to Vegas, but don’t expect a new team to take on that contract. Should they expose Reimer instead, the chances are much higher that the Knights will select a Panther goalie, but chances are both keepers are back in Florida next year regardless.

Among the forward corps, there is a lot to sort out. To get the easy ones out of the way, young scorers Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov, and Nick Bjugstad are almost surely safe. Assuming the Panthers go with the 7/3 scheme, that leaves them with three forwards left to protect. If they do go 8-skaters, then those four would represent all the protected forwards. After a breakout campaign in which he led the Panthers with 30 goals, 26-year-old Jonathan Marchessault is also highly likely to be protected. This leaves just two spots left for four valuable veteran forwards: Reilly Smith, Jussi Jokinen, Colton Sceviour, and captain Derek MacKenzie. Luckily for the Panthers, all four meet the qualifications (having played 70 games over the last two seasons or 40 games last season and be under contract) to meet the two-forward quota, so whoever the GM Dale Tallon wants he can have without having to consider other expansion criteria. With the free agent status of Jaromir Jagr up in the air, the leadership value of Jokinen and MacKenzie must be considered by a young Florida team. However, MacKenzie has not scored more than 20 points in a season since 2010-11 and is likely not of interest to Vegas and can be left unprotected. So who of Jokinen, Smith, and Sceviour will join him in the Draft? The 25-year-old Smith has the best chance to be the best producer for the longest amount of time in Florida. This also could be a way for the Panthers to dump the five-year, $25MM extension they signed him to last summer before it even begins. As he did with the Boston Bruins, Smith had a great first season with Florida in 2015-16, but just as he did in Boston, Smith fell off significantly in year two. The Panthers will have to re-sign Bjugstad and Marchessault and give non-entry level deals to Denis Malgin, Jared McCann, and others before that contract expires. Can they afford the weight of a $5MM annual cap hit for an average player? If Smith has scared them off, expect them to expose him and hope Vegas takes the risk. If not, it comes down to Jokinen and Sceviour. Again, the 33-year-old Jokinen has the leadership and experience and is just one year removed from a 60-point season. Sceviour can’t boast that kind of career production, but at $950K to Jokinen’s $4MM and Smith’s $5MM, he gets the Panthers more bang for their buck.

Defense is the real nightmare for Florida. Keith Yandle’s No-Movement Clause makes him automatically protected, though he would be protected regardless after signing a seven-year deal last year that began with a nice 41-point season. Aaron Ekblad is also as close to a sure thing as their is in the Expansion Draft as far as protection. The 2015 Calder Trophy-winner struggled a bit last season, but is still a top pair defenseman at just 21 years old. That leaves defensive spot left in the 7/3 scheme and three stalwart defeseman to choose from: Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, and Mark Pysyk. Unfortunately, unless circumstance change, Demers is out of the equation. With Yandle and Ekblad protected and Petrovic and Pysyk as restricted free agents, Demers is the only defenseman on the roster who can meet the 70-40 quota. It is possible for Florida to re-sign and expose Petrovic, Pysyk, or impending unrestricted free agent Jakub Kindl and then protect Demers, but their hesitation to do so yet seems to imply that they won’t be. Thus, Demers will be exposed and stands a very high chance of playing in Vegas next season. As for Petrovic verus Pysyk, both are similar in age and have great ability, but little to show for it on the score sheet early in their careers. The Panthers brass know best which 25-year-old fits best on the team, and likely both will remain in Florida, but don’t be surprised if they give the homegrown talent Petrovic the nod.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Jonathan Huberdeau
Vincent Trocheck
Aleksander Barkov
Nick Bjugstad
Jonathan Marchessault
Jussi Jokinen
Colton Sceviour

Defensemen

Keith Yandle (NMC)
Aaron Ekblad
Alex Petrovic

Goalie

James Reimer

Every team has a few risks that they must take in the Expansion Draft. As extraordinarily unlikely as it is, losing Luongo would be a blow and would cause the Panthers to have to change their off-season priorities to focus on helping Reimer in net. Smith being selected could come back to bite them if his $25MM deal pays off in Vegas. Being stripped of their captain would be rough on the locker room and they will likely hold out hope that there is no interest in MacKenzie. Having Pysyk taken from them after he was the centerpiece of last summer’s Dmitry Kulikov trade would feel like a waste.

So what sets Florida apart? Exposing Demers barely qualifies as a risk. The 28-year-old was one of the prizes of free agency last summer and just finished the first season of a relatively affordable five-year, $22.5MM deal. He scored 28 points this season, the second best campaign of his career and a level of production closer to that of his time back with the San Jose Sharks. He also has seen a steady climb in shooting percentage as the years have gone on and could easily break double digits next season, regardless of where he plays. However, the best thing about Demers for the Golden Knights is that he is a safe pick. He can lead their defense, can easily play 20+ minutes per night, can hit and block shots, and is signed long-term, meaning he can become a franchise player and potentially the team’s first captain. Unless the Panthers go 8-skaters or extend a current qualifying defenseman to then protect Demers, they face a real risk of losing a very solid player for nothing after just one year.

Offseason Keys: Florida Panthers

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While the expansion draft is set to headline a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months ahead. Here is a closer look at what lies ahead for the Florida Panthers.

After a surprising postseason run in 2015-16, the Panthers removed Dale Tallon from the GM post with Tom Rowe taking over.  He signed several core players to long-term extensions but the team failed to perform to expectations and Gerard Gallant was let go as head coach before long with Rowe taking over there as well.  The struggles continued and Rowe was relieved of both duties after the season (although he remains with the organization).  The reins have been handed back to Tallon after a year of wackiness; here’s what’s on the docket for Florida this offseason.

Hire A Coach

The obvious task is to name a new bench boss to take over from Rowe.  Tallon has cast a wide net and has been very thorough so far.  Among those known to have interviewed are former Canadiens coach Michel Therrien and Denver (NCAA) coach Jim Montgomery who are believed to have gone through a couple of interviews.  The team reportedly has interest in Washington associate coach Todd Reirden as well while Nashville assistant Phil Housley has also been suggested and there are likely others that are flying under the radar at the moment.

While there is no stated timetable to make this hire, presumably Tallon will look to get this wrapped up within the next two to three weeks.  It’s reasonable to think that the new coach will want input on any potential moves and the expansion draft (which is likely to really kick start the offseason movement) is now less than a month away.

Jagr’s Future

Although he fell well short of the 66 points he put up a year ago, Jaromir Jagr still had a fairly productive season, picking up 46 points (16-30-46) while playing in every game.  Not too shabby for someone who turned 45 back in February.  Jagr is slated to become an unrestricted free agent in July and will likely be headed for another one year contract; he has stated that he intends to plan in 2017-18.

Dec 13, 2016; Saint Paul, MN, USA; Florida Panthers forward Jaromir Jagr (68) against the Minnesota Wild at Xcel Energy Center. The Wild defeated the Panthers 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY SportsSeveral members of the organization have lauded Jagr’s contributions not only on the ice but off of it as well in terms of mentoring some of their younger players.

However, he is really starting to slow down and we’re seeing more and more how important speed is in the current NHL.  If the Panthers are looking to play an up-tempo style, Jagr may not be the best fit for them.

If there is mutual interest in a return, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Jagr take a bit of a pay cut.  He earned a base salary of $4MM this season while hitting another $1.5MM in games played incentives.  Florida already has a little over $60MM committed to 16 players for next year and they haven’t been a team that has typically spent to the ceiling so slotting him in for another $5.5MM doesn’t seem like a likely scenario at this time.

Reshape The Defense

Last summer, the Panthers transitioned into a team that relied heavily on analytics and in particular, they looked to rebuild their blueline with more emphasis on mobility and puck possession.  While the individual acquisitions made sense at the time, the unit as a whole really failed to live up to expectations, especially at the defensive end.

While it’s unlikely that Tallon will completely tear apart the defense corps, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see him try to bring in more of a prototypical stay-at-home player to give at least one of the pairings a new look.  Failing that, adding some grit to their blueliners is another potential move to change things up.  However, given their cap situation, they’re probably not going to be looking at the higher-end free agents (or possible trade acquisitions).  Any moves made will likely come out as tweaks but that coupled with a new coach may be enough to turn around what is a quality unit, at least on paper.  Given that they allowed 34 more goals this year than last, it may go a long way towards getting them back into the playoff picture as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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