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Rangers, Zibanejad Exchange Arbitration Numbers

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With the arbitration hearing for New York Rangers center Mika Zibanejad coming up this Tuesday, July 25th, the two sides have exchanged salary figures. According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, Zibanejad’s side is asking for $5.35MM, while the team is offering $4.1MM.

While there’s been no word thus far on the term either side is requesting, it is reasonable to assume that Zibanejad would like just a one-year award if the negotiations go all the way through the arbitration process. The first year in New York did not go as planned for the 24-year-old pivot, as injury limited him to just 56 games. While the swift Swede was still able to put up 37 points, he snapped his 20-goal season streak and was unable to show off much of his physical game, playing a much more careful style. Nevertheless, Zibanejad still displayed his scoring ability, with a career-high 0.66 points per game and an 11.8% shooting percentage, as well as his two-way ability with a +9 rating and career-best 52% face-off winning percentage. He also skated in 12 playoff games and looked impressive, registering nine points and a +4 rating in nearly 18 minutes of ice time per game.

The Rangers may have expected more from Zibanejad in year one, but when he was healthy he was everything they could ask for. The last thing that New York wants is a short-term deal that exposes Zibanejad to unrestricted free agency anytime soon. Having traded Derick Brassard to acquire Zibanejad just around this time last year, they want to make that deal count. Expect the Rangers to do what they can to lessen the annual average value of the deal based on injury concerns in 2016-17, but in the end do what it takes to secure a long-term deal. New York will likely be the side to budge, despite a strange first season together, and this contract will likely end up as a five or six year pact (or longer) worth somewhere around $4.75MM+ per year, similar to the deal Brassard himself signed with the Rangers back in 2014.

Arbitration Breakdown: Brian Dumoulin

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With the reports of a huge financial gap between the two parties, it seems quite likely that Brian Dumoulin will reach his arbitration date. Whether the team can hammer out a deal before needing to accept that decision remains to be seen. They are still far apart in terms of value according to Elliotte Friedman, as the team only offered $1.95 MM compared to his agent’s number of $4.35 MM. Dumoulin has been a mainstay in Pittsburgh for their two Stanley Cup runs, but he has a difficult quantitative case to make to earn the money he is seeking.

The Numbers

Dumoulin was huge in the absence of Kris Letang. When the Penguins’ top defender was again sidelined to injury, Dumoulin’s ice-time skyrocketed to first-pairing usage. He finished the season with an average ice time of 20:33, but often saw far more down the stretch. In the playoffs, he averaged 21:59. Those are the numbers of an upper echelon second-pairing defenseman, but when you consider that he almost never sees powerplay time, and the defensive situations he is trusted in, he’s a borderline top-pairing player.

Dumoulin isn’t an offensive force in any regard. He’s only tallied 33 points through his 163 regular season games played, and 3 of his 5 career goals come from post-season action. Still, he can move the puck with relative efficiency and can be relied on to tally a little under 20 assists a season.

Dumoulin faces tough quality-of-competition, and that will be his biggest argument for the compensation he is seeking. However, his Corsi and Fenwick, the most utilized advanced statistics, don’t show improvement for the player last year. When these stats are taken without context, Dumoulin’s 2016-17 playoffs was his worst outing to date. He had a brutal 41.2% Corsi For through 25 post-season contests, down from his 2015-16 run’s 52.8%. His regular season totals showed a less drastic ’decline’, but the tougher minutes and far greater shots allowed team-wide brought his advanced statistics back down to merely average. He has shots blocked (99) and penalty killing prowess to turn to, but those are difficult figures to primarily base a case for a raise upon.

Potential Comparables

Here are some comparable players and their contracts.

Travis Hamonic (Calgary) – Although it may seem an odd comparison to some, the underlying numbers for these players aren’t dissimilar. Both have never broken 5 goals in a season and neither scores a particularly impressive amount of points. They are physical without being intimaditing and can skate well enough to survive in today’s NHL. They both block shots with consistency and contribute over 20 minutes of icetime a night. Hamonic signed his long-term deal worth $3.86 MM all the way back in 2013, which was a bit of an overpayment at the time in hopes of keeping the AAV down as he progressed. This seems a little under what most players with the skillset are looking for in 2017, but it’s an interesting parallel.

Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders) – Dumoulin’s contract will be a bit of a barometer for the Isles’ de Haan, as it will show the direction the arbiters are leaning on not-so-flashy defenders. As the only other RFA defenseman other than Vegas’ Nate Schmidt likely to earn more than $2 MM, de Haan and the Islanders will be watching the outcome of this case to determine who has greater leverage. De Haan still has great upside, but has played in a far more sheltered role on a deep defense.

Cody Ceci (Ottawa) – Ceci is not considered to be quite the asset that Dumoulin is, but seeing as his contract was awarded merely a year ago, this sort of bargain is what the Penguins are likely aiming toward. Ceci signed a two-year deal worth only $2.8 MM a season, after a 10 goal, 26 point season where he averaged nearly 19 minutes a night. Dumoulin has never seen that kind of production, but up until last season comparatively played against greater competition. Ceci is due for another arbitration hearing at the conclusion of the 2017-18 campaign, as his past contract was a sort of bridge deal.

Jacob Trouba (Winnipeg) – Again, another bargain for a defenseman that was handed out last season. Trouba’s negotiations dragged on into the regular season, before he finally accepted a two-year agreement, with the first year at $3.31 MM and the second year at $2.81 MM. Trouba is much more offensive than Dumoulin, but has generally seen more icetime and a similar difficulty of competition. Just like the Penguins, there was a large degree of disagreement in the financial value of the player between the organization and the agent. Dumoulin has championship pedigree to tout at his hearing, however, whereas Trouba was largely banking on his potential as a former first-rounder.

Projection

Dumoulin is an interesting case because he is undoubtedly an integral piece of the Pittsburgh blueline, but has little outside of truly advanced statistics to prove his case. How much will their championship runs inflate his value? How much is a stay-at-home defender worth, especially when his possession numbers have taken a hit?

Ultimately, if Dumoulin were a UFA rather than a RFA, he’d easily attract contract offers around $5 MM. As an RFA however, his predecessors haven’t seen a whole lot of success in proving their case. Shots blocked and plus minus are nice, but considering the trend of the league, they are not going to benefit his standing all that much. A lot of Dumoulin’s value is hard to quantify, and there’s the very real possibility that his bargaining position suffers as a result. Ultimately, his exposure in two long playoff runs will bring his value back to a fairer mark, and he will earn far more than the team’s ask of $1.9 MM. Somewhere in the range of $3 MM seems the likely award if the arbitration decision is actually needed. However, it’s unlikely that the parties don’t come to a longer-term agreement before that time. The Penguins need to lock him down as part of their defense, and a multi-year contract at around $4 MM is probable. GM Jim Rutherford will likely posture til the last conceivable minute, but his internal value is far too great to risk him walking in summer free agency in the next two years.

Viktor Arvidsson Signs 7-Year Extension With Nashville

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First reported byElliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, and then confirmed by Adam Vingan of the Tenessean, Nashville has secured a long-term deal to lock up their restricted free agent Viktor Arvidsson, forgoing the need for an arbitrator’s ruling. The crafty forward’s contract is good for 7 seasons, at an AAV of only $4.25 MM.

Arvidsson’s arbitration hearing took place earlier today, and the figures that were being thrown out earlier nearly assured that Nashville was bound to get a solid deal. Arvidsson asked for only one year at $4.5 MM whereas the team opted for two years at a mere $2.75 MM. Arvidsson was the team’s leading goal scorer, and one of the biggest surprises of the season. His offensive explosion helped carry the team to the Stanley Cup Final, and at only 24 should be a huge part of the team’s future for a long time. His advanced statistics, in addition to his 30+ goal season, really make the player attractive league-wide. His 55 % Corsi For puts him in elite company among  top-six wingers facing similar level of competition.

Getting a 61-point winger on a cost-controlled contract for the next 7 years is truly impressive work for GM David Poile. It should be kept in mind that there is a small element of risk here, as this was a total breakout season after a mediocre first pro year which saw him score only 16 points through 56 games. if Arvidsson can maintain anywhere near last season’s level of productivity, though, he will be incredibly cost-effective. His remarkable progression basically made James Neal expendable in the expansion draft, and now it seems that Poile is confident enough to lock the player down for the foreseeable future. At only 5’9, the player has faced doubters who question his long-term value, but he is now unquestionably a core piece in Tennessee.

When taken in reference another of this year’s RFAs, Tomas Tatar was awarded earlier today with a deal worth $5.3 MM AAV. Granted, Tatar had three consecutive 50+ point seasons which led to that figure. Arvidsson may only continue to progress, securing himself as a truly elite winger. By extending Arvidsson for such a long period, Nashville managed to bring a potentially more productive player than Tatar in at a figure far less cumbersome.

Jordan Martinook Re-Signs With Arizona

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The Arizona Coyotes and two-way forward Jordan Martinook have avoided arbitration, coming to terms on a new deal today. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that Martinook has signed a two-year, $3.6MM deal to remain in the desert. The two sides have reportedly been close on contract terms for a while, but there was also speculation that Martinook would wait for his arbitration hearing this Wednesday, July 26th, before making a decision. Instead, the big forward has signed on for two more years with the promising young Coyotes, where he could soon take on a larger role for the team.

Martinook, in just his second full NHL season, has already shown that he is a model of consistency and effort. Capable of playing both center and left wing, Martinook is the perfect versatile bottom-six forward. He plays a smart two-way game, including leading the Coyotes’ penalty kill unit, and brings a physical edge and swift defensive style. He can also put up some offense, with 24 and 25 points respectively in his first two full seasons, including 11 goals in 2016-17.

The 24-year-old Martinook is just beginning to show his NHL upside, and should take on a much larger role for Arizona going forward. Amazingly, with Shane Doan and Radim Vrbata now gone, Martinook is second only to Tobias Rieder in games played with Arizona among forwards on the team with just 166 contests. The absence of those veterans will naturally allow for more ice time and scoring opportunity for Martinook, but as full-effort player and one of the longest-tenured forwards on a young term, Martinook could also be in line for a leadership position in the locker room. At just $1.8MM per year for a well-rounded player about to take the next step in his development, GM John Chayka and the Coyotes may have a bargain on their hands with Martinook’s new contract.

Tomas Tatar Signs Four-Year Deal With Detroit Red Wings

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Even after the arbitration hearing went down yesterday, the Detroit Red Wings and Tomas Tatar have come to an agreement on a long-term contract. The four-year deal will pay Tatar $21.2MM, for an average of $5.3MM per season. With less than 24 hours left before an arbitrator made a decision on a one-year contract, the two sides found common ground that will keep Tatar in Detroit for a few years more. The breakdown is as follows: Tomas Tatar

  • 2017-18: $4.875MM salary + $1.125MM signing bonus
  • 2018-19: $5.5MM salary
  • 2019-20: $5.5MM salary
  • 2020-21: $3.2MM salary + $1MM signing bonus

Craig Custance of the Athletic pointed out this morning that the two sides could still reach an agreement in time, and we’ve seen this before in cases like P.K. Subban who signed an eight-year deal after his arbitration hearing in 2014. Tatar was set to become an unrestricted free agent next summer, and would have been one of the most interesting names at the trade deadline if Detroit hadn’t been in playoff contention this year.

Now, the Red Wings have more work to do. With Tatar signed, the team is now more than $3MM over the salary cap for next season with Andreas Athanasiou still to sign. The team does have Johan Franzen still under contract and heading for long-term injured reserve, but like in Toronto and Chicago the team may not want to use “summer LTIR” because of the restrictions it comes with. Instead, they could look to move out some of the hefty contracts for their declining veterans through trade or a buyout.

Like Ottawa earlier today when they signed Ryan Dzingel, this move will open a second 48-hour buyout window for the Red Wings on Monday that they could use to clear cap space. Buying out Niklas Kronwall or Jonathan Ericsson would give them around $2.6MM in savings each next season, though both seem unlikely candidates to be cast aside from the only teams they’ve ever known. Mike Green, effective but expensive leads the list of trade candidates, as he is on the final year of his current contract and likely doesn’t fit into the Red Wings timeline going forward. Moving his $6.0MM cap hit would provide quite the cap relief, if they could ever find a buyer to give them some real value in return.

Salary cap issues aside, this contract actually comes in with less total money than the five-year $25MM contract that Tatar reportedly turned down. Though it is a slightly higher cap hit, it seems as though holding firm worked out for Ken Holland in the end as he got the player for a reasonable contract. Tatar signs at the same cap hit as Ondrej Palat in Tampa Bay, a player with similar production throughout his career. Even if Detroit does decide to throw in the towel and try a real rebuild, this deal is still palatable enough to move for a solid return.

Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet was first to break the deal, while Craig Morgan of AZ Sports provided the financial breakdown.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Viktor Arvidsson, Nashville Predators Exchange Arbitration Figures

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Though Colton Parayko has avoided arbitration with the St. Louis Blues, the other hearings are still rapidly approaching. Viktor Arvidsson is set to have his heading on Saturday, and has exchanged figures with the Nashville Predators. The team has offered a two-year deal worth $5.5MM, while Arvidsson wants just one year at $4.5MM according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet.

The gap of $1.75MM seems quite large, but unlike in the MLB an arbitrator does not have to side with one figure or the other. The actual salary could come somewhere in between. Just like Parayko however, the team still has 48 hours to try and get a deal done that would lock up Arvidsson longer than two years.

Arvidsson’s case is an interesting one. The undersized winger wasn’t drafted until he was already 21 years old, and even then just in the fourth round. Another year and a half in the minors, and he has just 142 NHL contests under his belt at age-24. He did break out this season for 31 goals and 61 points and no one doubts his talents, but as Mike Furlano explained this week there are certain things you can and can’t bring up in arbitration hearings. Arvidsson’s relative inexperience is definitely something the team will use against him.

The fact that he’s 24 also poses some problems to a long-term deal. Arvidsson is just three years away from unrestricted free agency, so any term beyond that would be paying for years that he believes would be his prime earning period. If he believes he can maintain this production (and why wouldn’t he) it would be a huge bidding war for his services on the open market. It’s difficult for the team to extend that much capital and give him anything close to fair market value on his UFA years though after just one season, making it a tough negotiation for both sides.

Colton Parayko Signs Five-Year Deal With St. Louis

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With the arbitration hearing for Colton Parayko about to start, the two sides have agreed upon a five-year, $27.5MM contract. The deal will keep Parayko in St. Louis until he is 29, at which point he will be an unrestricted free agent. While the average annual value will be $5.5MM, the contract breaks down as follows:

  • 2017-18: $6.5MM
  • 2018-19: $6.5MM
  • 2019-20: $5.525MM
  • 2020-21: $3.35MM
  • 2021-22: $5.625MM

Colton Parayko

This is quite the contract for both sides, as the Blues will buy out two UFA years from Parayko in exchange for a strong cap number next season. There are 32 other defensemen who will be paid at least $5.5MM next season, meaning Parayko will need to continue to perform at quite a high level in order to justify the contract. That doesn’t seem to be a problem for the young defenseman, as his first two years have been excellent and he looks ready to take another step forward.

If you were to look at Parayko without knowing anything about him, he might seem to you to be a hulking defender that could be useful on the penalty kill but probably lacks skating ability or offensive upside. His 6’5″ frame and incredibly long reach brings more visions of Hal Gill than Paul Coffey. Nothing could be further from the truth though, as Parayko combines incredible stick handling with a sharp first pass and above average elusiveness to create offensive chances on the regular.

Blues fans will be incredibly pleased with the deal, as it brings in a budding superstar behind captain Alex Pietrangelo in terms of salary, and allows them the flexibility next season to worry about Robby Fabbri’s next deal and finding a replacement for Paul Stastny (unless Brayden Schenn is that already). The team now has six defensemen under contract for next season, a group that would rank among the best in the league in many categories. Parayko came in third among defensemen in ice time last year behind Pietrangelo and veteran Jay Bouwmeester, but without Kevin Shattenkirk in town for the whole year will likely be asked to do even more this season.

Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet was first to break the deal, giving us the length and total. Craig Morgan of AZ Sports gave us the year-by-year breakdown.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Ryan Dzingel, Ottawa Senators Submit Arbitration Figures

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Just like Colton Parayko and Tomas Tatar yesterday, Ryan Dzingel and the Ottawa Senators have exchanged figures for their upcoming arbitration hearing. Dzingel is scheduled for a hearing on Friday morning, and has asked for a $1.95MM salary according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. The team has countered with a $1MM offer. The two sides still have almost 48 hours to work out a deal, and GM Pierre Dorion told Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Citizen they would like to avoid a hearing if possible.

Dzingel took a big step forward in his first full season, scoring 14 goals and 31 points for the Senators in 81 games. His presence was felt in all situations, as the 25-year old winger uses his speed to create chances of the rush and disrupt passing lanes in the defensive zone. He’s come a long way since being a seventh-round pick in 2011.

A one year deal would leave Dzingel a restricted free agent next summer again, allowing the Senators to continue negotiations on a long-term deal. Even if the arbitrator settles on the full $1.95MM ask, it’s a fine price to pay for a solid secondary scoring option that can move up and down the lineup. With the Senators suddenly flush with center depth, it will be interesting to see who Dzingel lines up with to start the season.

Snapshots: Yakupov, Olympics, Meier

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When Nail Yakupov didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the St. Louis Blues this spring, many people around the league believed it may take a move overseas to find new life in his career. We even wrote on the subject here on PHR, saying that a move back to the KHL seemed like his best option. Yakupov was clear that wasn’t his goal, and instead he secured a one-year, $875K contract from the Colorado Avalanche who may prove to be an even better fit.

Andi Duroux of BSN Denver takes an incredibly thorough—and extremely insightful—look into the career of the 2012 first-overall pick, and how that career can get back on track with last year’s last place team. Yakupov should have every opportunity in Colorado to show he can still produce offensively, but will need to show he can play in both ends of the rink to take advantage of his immense potential. If he does, he could be in for a big raise next summer.

  • While rumors of the NHL having a backup plan to still possibly go to the 2018 Olympics seem far-fetched, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet does bring us some news on that front. It looks like players that are on AHL-only contracts will be allowed to represent their country in the games, but not those on two-way deals currently playing in the AHL. It will be interesting to see if a player who has signed his entry-level contract but is playing in the junior ranks would be included in this, but either way that leaves some interesting names for the potential squad. While Team USA may be made up of many collegiate players, other more veteran options with international experience like Peter Mueller, who was playing on an AHL deal with the Providence Bruins last year could be considered. For Team Canada, recent CHL free agents like Darren Raddysh and Stefan LeBlanc could join the veterans playing internationally.
  • A question that has come up several times in our Live Chats is that of a potential replacement for Patrick Marleau in San Jose. After the long-time Shark signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs in free agency, fans of the team were looking around hoping someone would be brought in to replace his spot in the top six. Kevin Kurz of CSN was asked a similar question about how the lines will shake out, and he projected Timo Meier to take the left wing spot beside Logan Couture on the second line. That would be a big responsibility for the 20-year old Meier, after making his NHL debut this season with just six points in 34 games. The ninth-overall selection in 2015, he has all the makings of a top-line power forward but has yet to put it all together and find any consistency in his game.

Detroit Red Wings, St. Louis Blues Exchange Arbitration Figures With RFAs

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Arbitration is coming fast and furious later this week, with the hearings kicking off on Thursday with Colton Parayko and Tomas Tatar. Before that happens, teams and players need to exchange figures for the arbitrator to rule on. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet is reporting that the St. Louis Blues have submitted a two-year offer for $7MM (total), while Parayko wants a one-year deal worth $4.85MM. Friedman also reports that the Detroit Red Wings have offered Tatar $4.1MM, while the forward has asked for $5.3MM.

Unlike baseball, the arbitrator does not need to decide with one side or the other and can find a “middle-ground” salary for the player. Both of these teams would have walk-away rights from a potential decision, though it would be hard to see either of them allowing Parayko or Tatar to hit the open market. As always, a deal before the hearing is still likely between both sides as cases rarely actually reach arbitration.

Parayko, 24, is known as a budding superstar around the league but doesn’t have the experience or huge point totals to give him much leverage in the process. That said, there is leeway for an “intangibles” component which can use things like leadership and public appeal to sway the decision. Parayko is extremely popular in St. Louis as the team and fans see him as a building block for any future contender.

Tatar, 26, on the other hand has a much longer track record of success in the NHL after completing his fourth full season, but cannot be awarded a two-year deal because of his proximity to unrestricted free agent. It seems likely that the two sides will either take the one-year deal and part ways next summer, or somehow find a long-term deal that works. It was recently reported that Tatar turned down a five-year, $25MM deal and it’s clear that he values himself much higher than that.

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