Snapshots: Three Stars, Team Canada, Junior Snubs
The NHL released its three stars of the week today, with Brayden Schenn leading the group. Schenn has found brilliant success since being traded to St. Louis, already with 37 points in 31 games. Always possessing elite talent, some believed Schenn would never become the dominant presence he was projected to be when the Los Angeles Kings took him fifth-overall. He’s already been traded twice in his career, but looks ready to obliterate his previous career-high of 59 points and become an integral part of any St. Louis success.
Jake Allen and Brian Elliott round out the stars of the week, both posting perfect records and incredible save percentages. Allen and Elliott were teammates just two seasons ago, when the Blues went to just their second Conference Finals in nearly 30 years. With zero Stanley Cup victories in their history, Allen and Schenn will look to change the franchise fortunes this year.
- Team Canada has made two roster changes for the upcoming Channel One Cup, which beings on Wednesday morning in Russia. Marc-Andre Gragnani and Quinton Howden will replace Gilbert Brule and Karl Stollery for the Olympic tune-up, both coming from Minsk of the KHL. Howden, the older brother of Tampa Bay Lightning prospect Brett Howden, is still just 25-years old and was a first-round pick in 2010. While he’s finding much more success in the KHL than he ever did in NHL, one has to wonder whether an impressive showing at the Olympics would open up some eyes in North America. His Russian deal only runs through the end of April 2018, after which he could potentially sign with any team.
- Corey Pronman of The Athletic examined all the so-called “snubs” from World Junior selection camps, including top-10 picks in Michael Rasmussen and Owen Tippett. Alex DeBrincat, who was cut from last year’s Team USA despite being arguably the best offensive player in the entire CHL and is now enjoying a successful NHL campaign at age-19, had some words of encouragement (via Scott Powers of The Athletic) for Chad Krys, one of the listed snubs. Krys attended the tournament as a 17-year old, but hasn’t been asked back since, and is now starring at Boston University.
Jaden Schwartz Out Six Weeks
The context behind the St. Louis Blues’ call-up of Ivan Barbashev is now clear. The Blues have announced that Jaden Schwartz suffered a right ankle injury in yesterday’s game against the Detroit Red Wings. He will be re-evaluated in six weeks, during which time the team will have to lean on Barbashev or another AHL forward as his replacement.
This is a devastating blow for the red-hot Blues. Schwartz has struggled with injuries in the past but has always produced at a high level when healthy. Schwartz has 35 points in 30 games and an incredible +23 rating. Schwartz is currently second on the team in points, goals, and plus/minus behind only linemate Brayden Schenn and tied with Schenn for assists. His impact on special teams can also not be understated.
Schwartz’s absence will be quite the test for St. Louis. While they were fortunate to get Patrik Berglund back from injury before Schwartz went down and have also seen surprising production from the likes of Vladimir Sobotka, Scottie Upshall, and Dmitrij Jaskin, it will still be very difficult to make up for the loss of Schwartz for the next month and a half. Barbashev, the presumptive replacement for Schwartz as a top nine forward, had been held scoreless so far in the NHL this season and Wade Megan and Tage Thompson had the same luck in their short stints. One of those three young forwards needs to step up or else the Blues could see their lead in the Central slip away in no time, with the Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets right on their tail.
Philadelphia Flyers Must Look To Future
The Philadelphia Flyers dropped their 10th straight game today against the Boston Bruins and while that losing streak is hard to take, Philly.com’s Sam Carchidi writes that there are positives despite all the negatives the team has been enduring this year. The team is playing well at even strength, struggling mainly on special teams and the team should be getting defenseman Radko Gudas back from a 10-game suspension on Dec. 12, so there is hope for this season.
Regardless, the scribe writes fans may have to look towards the future rather then at this year’s production. While fans are angry about the offseason trade in which the Flyers traded away center Brayden Schenn, who is currently putting up good numbers in St. Louis with 10 goals and 20 assists, there are long-term assets to consider. The team took on Jori Lehtera‘s contract in exchange, and the veteran is making that deal more challenging to analyze as he hasn’t scored a goal for Philadelphia this year. However, the team also got back two first round picks in that deal. The team drafted center Morgan Frost this past year, who is playing well in the OHL with 13 goals and 27 assists in 26 games. The team is also getting another first-rounder in the bountiful 2018 draft as well.
Carchidi writes the team should have ample cap room next year when the contracts of Valtteri Filppula ($5MM AAV) and Matt Read ($3.63 AAV) expire. If the team chooses to buyout the final year of Lehtera’s deal, the team should have ample space to sign a free agent this offseason when players such as John Tavares, Evander Kane and James van Riemsdyk are available.
However, the team also has quite a few prospects starting with 19-year-old goaltender Carter Hart, a 2016 second-round pick, who looks like the team’s goaltender of the future. After recovering from a bout of mononucleosis, he has put up huge numbers in the WHL, including a 1.58 GAA and a .953 save percentage in 13 games. He is expected to be Canada’s starting goaltender in the upcoming World Juniors and some believe he could be ready to be the Flyers starter in the 2019-20 season after a year in the AHL.
If you include that with the large amount of young players under the age of 25 on the Flyers current roster such as Sean Couturier, Nolan Patrick, Travis Konecny, Shayne Gostisbehere, Ivan Provorov, Travis Sanheim, Robert Hagg and a bunch of other youngsters who still must prove themselves, the core is already there. Along with the success of a lot of their young players in the minors, this team has a lot to look forward to in the future.
Snapshots: IIHF HOF, Players Of The Month, Devils
The International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) named their 2018 Hall of Fame class today, with several notable NHL names among them. Former stars Daniel Alfredsson, Rob Blake, Chris Chelios, and Jere Lehtinen will all be immortalized for their impressive international careers. Between them, the Swede, Canadian, American, and Finn have 16 Olympic Games and 8 Olympic medals, to of course go along with outstanding professional careers. Builders Philippe Lacarriere, a former European player and IIHF Councilman, and Bob Nadin, a long-time referee, will also be inducted.
- In terms of current recognition, the NHL announced the top players of the month of November today. The Three Stars of the Month were Colorado Avalanche star center Nathan MacKinnon at #1, Toronto Maple Leafs keeper Frederik Andersen at #2, and new St. Louis Blue Brayden Schenn at #3. MacKinnon was a point per game player last month, notching five goals and fifteen assists in 12 games for the Avs. Andersen kept the Leafs going with nine wins, a 2.14 GAA, and .938 save percentage. Schenn was arguably better than either despite coming in third, with seven goals and twelve assists in just 12 games, bringing his season total to 30 points in 25 contests. Vancouver Canucks winger Brock Boeser was named the Rookie of the Month behind his 16 points in 15 games, as the young scorer has kept the Canucks afloat early on and leads all first-year players in scoring.
- If there was an award for Team of the Month, it could have easily gone to the New Jersey Devils. The Devils have somehow survived another month at or near the top of the toughest division in hockey, the Metropolitan, despite little expectation that they would even be a playoff contender in 2017-18. To cap off the month, they swung a deal to acquire a much-needed elite defenseman yesterday as well. The Devils are just getting started though – the team announced that Sami Vatanen caught a cross-country flight, took part in morning skate, and will make his debut tonight and joining him will be Marcus Johansson, the big off-season acquisition, who is returning from a long injury absence. November was a great month for the Devils, but December is starting off even stronger.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: St. Louis Blues
Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
St. Louis Blues
Current Cap Hit: $72,569,167 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Robby Fabbri (One year remaining, $894K)
F Zachary Sanford (Two years remaining, $875K)
F Ivan Barbashev (Two years remaining, $742K)
Potential Bonuses
Fabbri: $425K
Barbashev: $183K
Sanford: $50K
Total: $658K
Much of the attention of the youth will fall on Fabbri, who many are hoping will have a breakout season this year. The former 2014 first-round pick has already played two full seasons with the club and combined for 29 goals, but many people feel this might be the year where he takes that next step. He looked to be having a solid year last year, but tore his ACL in February and missed the rest of the season. Now healthy, many believe the Blues will move him to center to take control of a top line.
Sanford and Barbashev are two youngsters who many feel may also take on regular roles in St. Louis this year. Sanford, a second-round pick in 2013 by the Washington Capitals, came to St. Louis in the Kevin Shattenkirk trade at the trade deadline last season. The 22-year-old joined the Blues for the final 13 games and scored two goals and five assists and many believe he should make a solid fourth-line center as he develops his game. Barbashev is a second-round pick from the 2014 draft and got a promotion for the season’s final 30 games. The 21-year-old picked up five goals and seven assists and showed that he deserves a chance to start, but may have to settle for a wing position to start the year.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
F Paul Stastny ($7MM, UFA)
G Carter Hutton ($1.125MM, UFA)
D Joel Edmundson ($1.05MM, RFA)
F Dmitrij Jaskin ($1MM, RFA)
F Kyle Brodziak ($950K, UFA)
F Magnus Paajarvi ($800K, UFA)
F Oskar Sundqvist ($675K, RFA)
F Beau Bennett ($650K, RFA)
Obviously the team has to make a decision on what it plans to do with Stastny as he’s the biggest name amongst the team’s pending free agents next season. Stastny has been a solid contributor at center, but hardly spectacular and is probably not worth the $7MM AAV that he has received from St. Louis when they signed him in 2014. Injuries have played a major role for the 31-year-old veteran as he has missed 42 games in three seasons. On top of that, he only took 112 shots, one of the lowest of his career and his 22 assists last year is his career low, not including the strike-shortened 2012-13 season. The team has put some effort into developing some of their youngsters at the center position, including Fabbri, Barbashev and Sanford likely in hopes of eventually finding a replacement for Stastny in the near future.
After Stastny, the talent level drops, but the team will have several restricted free agents who will be in line for more money next year. Edmundson, entering his third full year in the league, who has struggled with injuries in his two years. He played in 67 games in 2015-16 and just 69 games last year. He put up three goals and 12 assists last year, but should get more playing time with Shattenkirk gone and if he can stay healthy, should put up even better numbers. Sundqvist also came to St. Louis in a recent trade. Acquired from Pittsburgh in the Ryan Reaves trade, Sundqvist hopes to break camp with the Blues. He couldn’t crack the lineup in Pittsburgh, managing just 28 games over the past two years, but he did score 20 goals for the Penguins’ AHL squad this year. The center has a good chance to win a bottom six center position this year.
Jaskin has had trouble staying in the lineup for the Blues. The 24-year-old has been with the team now for four seasons, but has never been able to a steady contributor. He only managed to get into 51 games last year, for one goal and 10 assists. If he can’t put together a solid season, it may be his last in St. Louis. Bennett, who was signed as a free agent this summer, must prove he can make the team first. The 25-year-old wing scored eight goals in 65 games for the New Jersey Devils last year.
Among unrestricted free agents, the team may want to bring back Hutton, who has served the Blues well as their backup goaltender. The 31-year-old played 29 games and finished the year with a 2.39 GAA and a .913 save percentage. The 33-year-old Brodziak makes for a good fourth-line player, but this could likely be his last year in St. Louis, while Paajarvi split time between the Blues and the Chicago Wolves and also could be at the end of the line if he can’t make the team out of training camp.
Blues Notes: Tarasenko, Schenn, Tavares, Barbashev
The St. Louis Blues have high hopes for the coming season and much of those hopes hinges on the play of star player Vladimir Tarasenko, who has been the team’s top scorer and has put up impressive numbers over the past several years. However, what Tarasenko has not done is show any improvement. In scoring, he’s put up 37, 40 and 39 goals. He put up 36 assists in 2014-15, 34 assists the following year and then 36 assists again last year. His numbers are virtually identical.
At 25 years of age, the question is whether his present numbers are as good as they are going to get. Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that his development will likely hinge on coach Mike Yeo’s coaching success. Now entering his first full year as head coach, the scribe writes that it will be Yeo’s job to push him to that elite level. Much of that will be finding the perfect linemates for him, which the team has failed to do in the past. Jaden Schwartz is a good fit with Tarasenko on the opposite wing, but who will man the center position remains up in the air.
- Gordon, in the same piece, writes that newly acquired forward Brayden Schenn has much to prove this coming season. There are many questions surrounding whether he is a true center or just a scorer. The Blues, who acquired Schenn from Philadelphia for their 2017 first-round pick and veteran Jori Lehtera, is expected to be a top-six player, but he has not proven to be a dominant center in the league so far, struggling with faceoffs and his defense. Schenn has scored 45 goals over the past two seasons.
- Don’t expect the Blues to go after John Tavares if he becomes available. With Tarasenko tied up until 2022-23, the Blues will not want to offer a $10MM per year contract and have two huge contracts on their cap. Gordon compared the situation to the Chicago Blackhawks and how difficult a time they are having keeping their team afloat with their two superstars on the roster.
- Finally Gordon suggests the two players who could take that “next step” are likely to be centers Ivan Barbashev and Zachary Sanford. Barbashev, the team’s second-round pick in 2014. He scored five goals and 12 points in 30 games at the end of last year and also scored 19 goals for the AHL’s Chicago Wolves. The 21-year-old center might be ready for a much bigger role next year. Gordon also feels that Sanford, a second-rounder in 2013, who the Blues acquired in the Kevin Shattenkirk trade, could take the next step. Between the Capitals and the Blues, he scored four goals in 39 games. The 22-year-old also tallied 11 goals for the AHL Hershey Bears.
Inactive Blues Hoping For Different Results
The St. Louis Blues were one of the most inactive teams this summer, right alongside the Edmonton Oilers and San Jose Sharks. With their relative success in a difficult Central division, it’s easy to understand why they didn’t make too many seismic transactions. Still, they had a moderate backslide in points last season despite making it to the second round. With only 99 points, they easily could have found themselves on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. The team’s only major move this off-season was trading Jori Lehtera for Brayden Schenn, by most accounts a trade they came out on top. Still, did the Blues need to be more aggressive?
The team has one of the most consistently underrated defensemen in Alex Pietrangelo, and Colton Parayko behind him is no slouch. After that, however, the pickings on defense are rather uninspiring. Jay Bouwmeester still logs substantial time on ice, with a 22:24 average, but there are signs his play is starting to slip. His last four seasons have been negative possession seasons (relative Corsi), and his offensive game has completely dried up. He only scored one goal to accompany his 14 assists last season. Furthermore, age is starting to catch up to him in terms of footspeed. He’ll be 35 this season, and that issue isn’t going to get any better in the years to come. Carl Gunnarsson only saw sheltered time last year, with just over 13 minutes a night against weaker competition. Robert Bortuzzo is a 6th defenseman at best and Joel Edmundson has work to round out his game if he wants to solidify himself as a top-four defender. Ultimately, the team needs defensive help, especially when the team will be up against the likes of the Blackhawks and Stars on a regular basis.
The offense is deep but undeniably overly reliant on Vladimir Tarasenko. Paul Stastny is looking nowhere near worth his contract, and Alex Steen has to slow down at some point in the near future. Jaden Schwartz is primed to have another solid 50+ point season, but if the bodies around him again struggle with consistency it could be an uphill endeavor. Robby Fabbri is another player to watch, as the former first-rounder looks to put together a solid, healthy campaign. The aforementioned addition of Schenn is valuable, but the team could arguably have done more to bring fresh blood in. The team is really banking on Vladimir Sobotka to prove his worth, but there is still the risk of him not producing. He’s never topped 10 goals in an NHL season, after all. Ivan Barbashev looks very promising, but he’s still somewhat of an unknown entity at this point. Ultimately, the team lacks a proven, go-to offensive threat behind Tarasenko Whereas other teams in the division have exceptional one-two punches, the Blues are still hoping to develop theirs fully.
There were available names this offseason to be had if GM Doug Armstrong was willing to make the moves. An Alexander Radulov, for example, would have done wonders to ease some of the pressure from Tarasenko. There are still names available, though, such as Thomas Vanek and Jaromir Jagr up front. On defense, not much remains at this late date. A trade would really be the only sensible option. The team is still relatively undersized up front and overtaxes the top defenders. Cap space was undoubtedly an issue, as at $72.57 MM currently there was little room to maneuver. Still, moving out a larger contract like Stastny’s or Bouwmeester’s might have cleared room to add an important piece or two. The Blues lost Kevin Shattenkirk at the deadline, and it remains to be seen how his absence will affect the team over the course of a full year. The coaching staff behind Mike Yeo did phenomenal work to bring the team back into contention, but stagnation can often cost teams who are on the bubble. It will be interesting to see if Armstrong remains quiet this off-season, or opts for an additional move before the season’s start.
Blues Snapshots: Steen, Parayko, AHL, Fabbri
Don’t be surprised if the St. Louis Blues move on from Alex Steen, eventually. While St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Jim Rutherford answered questions on the newspaper’s website, he added that while he’d be surprised to see Steen moved at this point in the offseason, he wouldn’t be shocked if the Blues were to look into trading him at the trade deadline next year or in the offseason.
The 33-year-old Steen’s new contract that he signed last offseason will be kicking in this year. He signed a four-year, $23MM contract and while his production has been consistently solid over the last couple of years (33 goals and 70 assists combined in last two years), the veteran is suddenly beginning to get in the way of the Blues massing core of young wingers, including Vladimir Tarasenko (25), Jaden Schwartz (25), Dmitrij Jaskin (24), Robby Fabbri (21 — although he could move to center next season — see below), Oskar Sundqvist (23) and Beau Bennett (25).
Rutherford adds the team still needs a veteran like Steen to provide the leadership to the youth, but there will be a point in which the team will be confident in its young wingers that it’s unlikely he’ll finish out his contract in St. Louis.
- In the same piece, Rutherford writes that he expects young defenseman Colton Parayko to step up this season for the Blues and become the star defenseman they were hoping for. While his goals scored dropped from nine to four last year, his points still went up, finishing with 35 points compared to 33 two years ago. The scribe writes that with Kevin Shattenkirk finally gone, Parayko should be able to raise his scoring numbers and develop into a No. 1 defenseman.
- Rutherford also writes that with the team agreeing to AHL agreements with the Chicago Wolves (Vegas’ affiliate) and the San Antonio Rampage (Colorado’s affiliate), the team will send prospects to either team, but are likely to have little say about playing time for their prospects. Both Vegas and Colorado will be putting a priority on their own prospects, leaving any Blues prospects to force their way into playing time.
- Former 2014 first-rounder Fabbri is currently penciled in as the team’s third-line center behind Paul Stastny and new acquisition Brayden Schenn. However, if they feel he is ready to put up a big season, Rutherford writes that it is likely he’ll be moved up to be a wing on the second line and force Steen to move to the right side.
Flyers’ Bloated Forward Contracts Becoming Issue
The Philadelphia Flyers haven’t seen the second round of the post-season since 2012, and in those 5 seasons since, missed the show entirely 3 times. For a team that spends as much on offense as the Flyers, their production has been incredibly mediocre. Many point to the seemingly never-ending goaltending carousel as the root cause of the team’s woes, and they wouldn’t be entirely incorrect. That said, over the last four seasons, their goals for per 60 minutes (GF60) is good for only 25th league-wide. That puts them above only the Vancouver Canucks, Carolina Hurricanes, Arizona Coyotes, New Jersey Devils, and Buffalo Sabres in that timeframe. In short, their offense has been remarkably underwhelming for years. And yet, the team is allocating $47.32 MM of its available $75 MM to its forward group in 2017-18, with most of that money tied up in only a handful of skaters. For comparison’s sake, that’s more than $5 MM more than their divisional rivals in Pittsburgh or Washington.
Leading the pack in terms of bloated contracts are the team’s captain Claude Giroux and last season’s team-points-leader Jakub Voracek. Neither player is detrimental to the cause – they both have tallied multiple 50+ point seasons with relative consistency. That said, their contracts are some of the most exorbitant in the league. Giroux’s $8.275 MM AAV for the next 5 seasons puts him in an elite group of forwards. So does Voracek’s $8.25 MM for the next 7 seasons. This places them 12th and 13th respectively among the highest paid players league-wide for the 2017-18 season. Giroux’s career PPG is .87, while Voracek’s is a measly .71. Excluding defensemen P.K. Subban and goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, these stats simply don’t match up to the rest of the “elite” group. Jonathan Toews‘ and Anze Kopitar both also account for around .87 PPG, but unarguably do far more on the defensive side of the puck than the simply capable Giroux. One of these bloated contracts alone would be a hindrance; two on the same roster is nearly insurmountable.
Further down the roster, you see other albatross contracts. Valtteri Filppula was acquired by the Flyers to shore up the center position and increase playmaking ability. He only scored 8 points through 20 games in Philadelphia. Thankfully for the Flyers, his $5 MM contract expires at the end of 2017-18. Jori Lehtera was acquired this off-season in a bizarre move for Brayden Schenn, who arguably saw a great deal of improvement last season. Lehtera has only two seasons remaining at $4.7 MM, but his only effective (44 points) season is two years in the past. He scored only 7 goals all last season. Then there’s Sean Couturier, who while not a total dud, has failed to progress the way the organization hoped when they drafted him with the 8th overall in 2011 acquired as part of the Jeff Carter transaction. He provides solid defensive play, but he has never broken 40 points, and seemingly regressed last season, falling out of Selke conversations. He has 5 seasons remaining at a moderate $4.33 MM AAV. Wayne Simmonds (the one true bargain on the team) and Matt Read both make over $3 MM, while Dale Weise and Michael Raffl both draw over $2 MM. For a team that truly struggles to put the puck in the net, a lot of money is being spent on marginal players.
Ultimately, the Flyers are in a difficult spot playing in the Metropolitan Division. With the high-flying, offensively-dynamic Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins competing for playoff positioning, the inclination to try and duplicate those franchises is only natural. The team did luck into a dynamic, potentially franchise, talent in Nolan Patrick, which may help alleviate some of the problems with consistent offensive production. That said, if the Flyers continue to struggle this season, look for some of the offensive big guns to find themselves on the trading block. Excluding the one year of Filppula and the incredibly valuable Simmonds, only Giroux has any sort of no-movement clause. With Ivan Provorov and Shayne Gostisbehere looking to be core pieces on the back-end for many years, the day may soon come where an offensive overhaul visits Philadelphia. GM Ron Hextall will have money moving out in the next few seasons, but he undoubtedly has decisions to make going forward, particularly if this season again falls short of a playoff appearance.
Patrik Berglund Undergoes Surgery, Out Until December
In an announcement that might explain their acquisition of Brayden Schenn even more, the St. Louis Blues have revealed that Patrik Berglund underwent left shoulder surgery yesterday and will be out until December. The injury happened during his offseason training in Sweden.
Berglund is just heading into a new five-year contract extension that will pay him $3.85MM per season, and was set to start the season as one of the centers for the Blues. Instead, he’ll miss almost the first half of the season and the Blues will scramble to fill the position. Luckily, they acquired Schenn from the Philadelphia Flyers on the weekend and have several players who can move to the middle. Alex Steen, Vladimir Sobotka, Kyle Brodziak, Zachary Sanford, Ivan Barbashev and Oskar Sundqvist all have various levels of experience in the middle, giving the Blues several options behind Schenn and Paul Stastny.
Even so, losing Berglund for that amount of time is a painful hit to a team looking to contend this year. His 23 goals were a career high and actually ranked second on the team, and he’s a responsible checker capable of providing minutes in all situations. The Blues don’t have a ton of room to spend on free agency for another fix, as the majority of their cap room is going to be eaten up by a Colton Parayko extension. They have more than enough depth to fill his role, though a lesser addition to the wing may still be in the cards for the summer.