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2016-17 Season Preview: Philadelphia Flyers

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With just days remaining before the NHL gets back to playing meaningful games, Pro Hockey Rumors is starting to wrap up their Season Preview series. This evening we move on to the Philadelphia Flyers.

Last Season: 41 – 27 – 14, 96 points, fifth in the Metro. Lost to Washington in round one of the playoffs.

Cap Space: $40.834K (According to Cap Friendly)

Key Additions: RW Dale Weise (free agent – Chicago); C Boyd Gordon (free agent – Arizona); Roman Lyubimov (free agent – KHL)

Key Departures: C Sam Gagner (free agent – Columbus); C Ryan White (free agent – Arizona); D Evgeny Medvedev (free agent – KHL); C R.J. Umberger (buyout – unsigned)

[Related: Flyers Depth Chart]

Players to Watch: Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth. Philadelphia should be just fine up front with Claude Giroux (67 points), Jakub Voracek (55 points), Brayden Schenn (26 goals, 59 points) and Wayne Simmonds (32 goals, 60 points) leading the way offensively. The Flyers boast a tremendous crop of young blue liners led by Shayne Gostisbehere, who is set to be joined this season by 19-year-old Ivan Provorov. Not far behind is Robert Hagg and Samuel Morin. The key for the Flyers will be to once again get quality goaltending out of Mason and Neuvirth.

Last season when the Flyers surprised some by making the postseason, Mason and Neuvirth combined to stop 91.7% of shots against which was good enough to tie them with two other teams for fifth best in the NHL. The Flyers also allowed 2.56 goals-per-game, a rate bested by 11 clubs in the league. The goaltending was indeed good last season and it was a big reason why the Flyers made it to the playoffs.

The questions is: can they again be that good or better? Since joining Philadelphia, Mason, a former Calder Trophy winner, has stopped 92.2% of the shots he has faced. But that rate is inflated by a 92.8 save percentage in 2014-15. If we remove that season, Mason has a 91.9% save percentage with the Flyers, which is still a solid number.

The bigger question is Neuvirth, who prior to 2015-16 had never recorded a save percentage better than 91.4% in any season in which he appeared in more than 13 games. Over the last three seasons, Mason has started 161 games for the Flyers, which means in all probability Neuvirth will get close to 30 starts. The Flyers need Neuvirth to be at least league-average in those starts to give them a good chance to contend in the highly competitive Metro Division.

Key Storylines: Can the Flyers take the next step? They improved by 12 points over their 2014-15 season total and while it’s not likely they’ll experience another double-figure leap in points, the next step in their progression is passing some of the teams that finished above them . This past season the Flyers finished 8th in the conference, grabbing the second wild card spot and a guaranteed reservation with the regular season’s best team, the Washington Capitals, in the playoffs. Earning a higher playoff seed and a playoff series win would constitute a successful campaign.

It wouldn’t necessarily be the end of the world if the Flyers took a marginal step back. They still have a ton of young talent getting closer to the NHL and with Mark Streit ($5.25MM AAV) and Michael Del Zotto ($3.875MM AAV) both set for free agency, the Flyers might have a little bit of money to spend next summer, assuming they rely on prospects to fill those openings. Then again, Gostisbehere is likely going to eat up much of that available cash on his next deal, presuming he has another productive campaign in 2016-17.

GM Ron Hextall and head coach Dave Hakstol have the Flyers on the right track. Hextall has extricated the club from some, not all, but some of their onerous contractual obligations. At the same time the franchise has added a lot of young talent to the organization that will begin to bear fruit as soon as this season.

Camp Notes: Marner, Grigorenko, Weal

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While it’s true that exhibition results and preseason predictions often mean nothing, fans of each team do like to see and hear strong results from some of their young players. In Toronto, uber-prospect Mitch Marner is really turning heads, as Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun writes. Marner is undersized by all accounts, but is starting to make believers out of his coaching staff and front office that he’ll be able to use his elite offensive ability to succeed right away at the next level. Even veteran teammates like Brooks Laich are impressed:

He’s good at tying up a stick so the other guy can’t make a play and then getting body position so he can kick the puck to his stick. I saw some little things that are very impressive.

Marner has to either make the NHL club or return to the OHL, a level which he absolutely dominated last season, winning every individual and team award available, including the Memorial Cup. While it wouldn’t ruin his career to head back to London for another season, he’s clearly too good for that level and would be at risk of slowing his development.

  • One of the big parts of the Ryan O’Reilly deal between Colorado and Buffalo was Mikhail Grigorenko, once selected 12th overall and considered a top prospect. While never delivering on his apparent high-ceiling offensively, Grigorenko did make strides last season in his first go-round with the Avs. Now considered a “veteran forward” by Terry Frei and the Denver Post, Grigorenko scored the only goal in an intrasquad game today and by all accounts has had a strong camp. Still only 22, he has plenty of time to develop into the strong two-way center Buffalo envisioned when spending such a high pick on him.
  • Another youngster is enjoying the World Cup, but not because of Team America. Sam Carchidi of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that Jordan Weal has been suiting up on the top line in Flyers camp between Brayden Schenn and Wayne Simmonds while Claude Giroux is off in Toronto, and he’s been showing he may be ready for a full time NHL role as soon as this season. An elite AHL scorer (his last two seasons there he recorded 70 and 69 points), Weal spent all of last season trapped between the injured reserve list and the waiver wire, and only got into 14 total contests, all at the NHL level.

Flyers’ Buyout Candidates For Second Window

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After signing Brandon Manning earlier Tuesday morning to a two-year deal, the Philadelphia Flyers have come to agreements with all of their restricted free agents and will now have a 48-hour buyout period (which starts Friday, three days after the final deal was struck) to clear cap room for the upcoming season.  The team currently sits less than $500K away from the cap ceiling, offering little room in which to operate.

The team used the first window earlier this summer to rid themselves of R.J. Umberger and his $4.6MM cap hit. He’ll cost them just $1.6MM on the cap this season and $1.5MM next, after contributing just 26 points over the past two years for the Flyers.

While there has been no word from the Flyers on whether they’d take advantage of this new window, there are a couple of under-achievers that could be jettisoned over the weekend to open up some more room for GM Ron Hextall to work.

Matt Read – Two years, $3.625MM AAV: Read signed a four-year, $14.5MM deal in 2013, but has never been able to replicate the 24-goal, 47-point season he put up in his rookie year. After putting up the worst season of his career in 2015-16, and climbing to the wrong side of 30, Read has seen his role with the club diminished greatly and might be the next victim of a buyout.

If he was to be bought out, the Flyers would save $2.75MM in cap space this season, and $2.25MM next. He’d then cost them $1.25MM in space from 2018-20.  Each year’s cap-hit broken down:

2016-17: $875K
2017-18: $1.375MM
2018-19: $1.25MM
2019-20: $1.25MM

Andrew MacDonald – Four years, $5MM AAV: The Flyers signed MacDonald to a six-year, $30MM deal in 2014 after he was traded from the New York Islanders mid-season. While MacDonald was coming off a 28-point season in which he logged almost 25 minutes a night, both those marks would prove to be career highs to this point, as a couple of injury-marred seasons has left MacDonald contributing just 20 points in 86 games since.

With the emergence of Shayne Gostisbehere last season, the Flyers have little use of MacDonald and his huge cap-hit going forward, especially if he can’t regain any of his form from years past.  Now 29, it’s not unbelievable that he could get some of his skills back, but it looks like he’ll never be worth the $5MM that the Flyers gave him.

If the Flyers did buy him out, they’d save a good amount of cap space for the next four years, ranging between $2.98MM (next year) and $3.98MM (2019-20), though would be paying him until 2023-24.  The cap-hit breakdown is as follows:

2016-17: $2.02MM
2017-18: $1.52MM
2018-19: $1.27MM
2019-20: $1.02MM
2020-21: $1.77MM
2021-22: $1.77MM
2022-23: $1.77MM
2023-24: $1.77MM

While both of these options seem like drastic measures, the team has a real chance of competing going forward with their young stars locked up long-term.  Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier and Gostisbehere are all under contract or team control until at least 2019-20, with many stretching far beyond that.  If the team is looking to push deep into the playoffs, it may need to rid itself of some of the weighty contracts it’s given out in the past.

We’ll continue to watch Hextall’s moves carefully, and follow the Flyers depth charts both here and on Roster Resource.

Philadelphia Re-Signs Brandon Manning

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According to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, the Philadelphia Flyers have reached an agreement with their final arbitration-eligible player Brandon Manning on a two-year, $1.95MM deal. Tim Wharnsby of CBC breaks it down: 2016-17 $950K, 2017-18 $1MM.

After the Flyers got Brayden Schenn to sign a long-term deal, Manning was next on the docket and was headed to an arbitration hearing on August 2nd.

Manning made an impact on the Flyers lineup this season, getting into 56 games at the NHL level.  The 26-year old scored seven points and logged over 16 minutes a night in his first lengthy chance with the big club.

He’ll now head to camp looking to secure a bottom-pairing job and show that he’s advanced past the AHL level – where he has been spectacular, scoring 43 points in 60 games in 2014-15.

As with the Rangers, the Flyers will now receive a 48-hour buyout window after re-signing multiple arbitration cases. The team has under $500K left under the cap, but no one left to re-sign.

Flyers Re-Sign Brayden Schenn To A Four Year Deal

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The Flyers announced Monday morning that they have avoided salary arbitration with RFA forward Brayden Schenn, signing him to a four year contract.  TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports that the deal carries a cap hit of $5.125MM per season making the total worth $20.5MM over the life of the contract.  General Fanager adds that deal does not contain any no-trade or no-move protection.

The contract makes Schenn the third highest paid forward on the Flyers behind Jakub Voracek and Claude Giroux, who both have cap hits over $8MM.

Schenn is coming off a career year with Philadelphia.  Last season, he posted career bests in goals (26), assists (33), and points (59) while averaging 16:54 of ice time per game.  He also picked up a pair of assists in six postseason contests while logging just shy of 19 minutes a night.

Schenn has spent most of his career with the Flyers after being a first round pick of the Kings (5th overall) back in 2009.  He was acquired by Philly back in 2011 along with Wayne Simmonds as part of the Mike Richards trade.  In 354 games between Philadelphia and Los Angeles, Schenn has 84 goals and 109 assists.

The Flyers have one remaining restricted free agent to re-sign this offseason, defenseman Brandon Manning.  They currently have a little over $2.25MM in remaining cap space, per Cap Friendly.

CBC’s Tim Wharnsby reports that the structure of the deal is as follows:

2016-17: $3MM salary + $3MM signing bonus
2017-18: $2.5MM salary + $2.5MM signing bonus
2018-19: $2.5MM salary + $2.5MM signing bonus
2019-20: $2MM salary + $2.5MM signing bonus

[Related: Flyers’ Depth Chart]

Salary Arbitration Updates: Schenn; Holland

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Both Brayden Schenn and Peter Holland are scheduled for salary arbitration on Monday, and the offers from both the players and teams have been released.

CBC’s Tim Wharnsby reports that Brayden Schenn is asking for a one-year deal worth $5.5MM. The Flyers are offering a two-year deal worth $4.25MM in year one and $4.37MM in year two. Any decision by an arbitrator would trigger the Flyers’ ’walk-away’ rights—the option for the team to walk away from the decision and render the player an unrestricted free agent—because an award would be above the $3.9MM threshold. Because the Flyers elected a two-year decision, using the walk away right would reduce the decision to one year and then Schenn becomes an unrestricted free agent.

Schenn scored 26G and 33A in 80 games last year for the Flyers, finishing third in team scoring. Schenn’s numbers are higher than Chris Kreider’s, who the New York Rangers signed for $4.65MM AAV prior to arbitration. Schenn’s production is also higher than Alex Killorn’s—another RFA signed before arbitration— who agreed to a long-term deal worth $4.45MM AAV. The best comparable from Schenn’s point of view is St. Louis Blues forward Jaden Schwartz. Schwartz signed a five-year deal worth $5.5MM AAV ahead of arbitration. The young Blues forward scored 8G and 14A this year in only 33 games, but potted 26G and 35A in 75 games last season. Schwartz also netted 4G and 10A in 20 playoff games this year as the Blues made it to the Western Conference Finals.

Wharnsby also reports that Peter Holland—fresh off of being waived by the Maple Leafs in a move to prove the center’s value around the league—is asking for $2.1MM. The Leafs have offered $900K. The parties are apart by $1.2MM. The center scored 9G and 18A in 65 games for the Leafs last season while sporting only a 46.5% success rate in the face-off dot. The Leafs have been patient with Holland, but expectations from management that he will flourish into a power-forward are waning.

Holland’s perception as a bottom-six forward poses a problem for accurately pinning down his worth. On one hand, Lars Eller—a center with similar stats—is making $3.5MM annually. On the other hand, Mikhail Grigorenko—also with similar stats—just signed a one-year deal before arbitration worth only $1.3MM. So much of a bottom-six forward’s value relies on how the league perceives a player, regardless of whether that perception is valid. Gritty forwards get paid more than offensive busts despite similar stats.

 

 

Metropolitan Notes: Buyouts, Mahoney, Schenn

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After finalizing the deal with Kevin Hayes this afternoon, the New York Rangers have come to terms with each of the four players who filed for salary arbitration this summer (Hayes, Chris Kreider, J.T. Miller and Dylan McIlrath) before any of them had a hearing. With it, comes an additional buyout window that will start on Monday and last for 48 hours.

In this window, the team may perform a buyout on a player who fulfills certain criteria. Many speculated during the last window that the team could buy out defenseman Dan Girardi, and as the Rangers move closer to the cap, this remains a possibility.  Girardi’s play has deteriorated over the past few seasons, and he carries a cap hit of $5.5MM for the next four years.

If the team were to buy out Girardi, they’d be paying him $10MM total, spread over eight years.  His cap hits would be as follows (via General Fanager):

2016-17 – $1.75MM
2017-18 – $2.75MM
2018-19 – $3.75MM
2019-20 – $3.75MM
2020-21 – $1.25MM
2021-22 – $1.25MM
2022-23 – $1.25MM
2023-24 – $1.25MM.

There has been no word from Rangers camp that Girardi is headed for a buyout, but we’ll keep an eye on the situation as it unfolds.  Here are some more notes from the Metropolitan division:

  • While there has been relatively little news out of Las Vegas since the city was granted an expansion franchise, Elliotte Friedman is hearing that the team is after Washington Capitals assistant general manager Ross Mahoney, and has asked the club for it’s permission to interview him.  While there hasn’t been any response from the Capitals, Mahoney worked with new Las Vegas GM George McPhee for over a decade in Washington and may see it as a new opportunity.
  • The last thing we heard about Brayden Schenn is that there has been “no progress of any kind” on a new contract, and the young forward is getting closer and closer to his arbitration hearing.  Each player so far that has been scheduled before Schenn’s July 25th hearing has come to an agreement, but so far it doesn’t sound like there is any movement from either camp.  The Philadelphia centerman is coming off his best year as a pro, one that saw him score 26 goals and 59 points in 80 games. His continued development will be a discussion point in arbitration, as the former fifth-overall pick has increased his point total each season of his career.

Arbitration Tracker

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Ten days ago, the NHLPA released the schedule for player and team-elected arbitration hearings. Since then, four hearing dates have come and gone with no hearings, with eight players agreeing to contracts to avoid the unpleasant process.

Here’s an updated list of all 24 players who were scheduled for an arbitration hearing:

Player Elected Filings:

Arizona Coyotes
Michael Stone – Stone and the tough-negotiating Coyotes have a hearing set for August 4.

Colorado Avalanche
Tyson Barrie – Hearing set for July 29. Barrie has been the subject of near-constant trade rumors this summer.
Mikhail Grigorenko – Agreed to a one-year, $1.3MM contract on July 20, just two days before the scheduled hearing.

Detroit Red Wings
Jared Coreau – Agreed to a two-year, $1.25MM contract on July 6, well before any hearings were scheduled.
Danny DeKeyser – Signed a six-year deal on July 26th, locking him up long-term for the Red Wings.

Minnesota Wild
Jordan Schroeder – The Wild signed Schroeder to a one-year, two-way deal on July 23rd worth $675K in the NHL and $275K in the AHL.

Nashville Predators
Petter Granberg – Signed a two-year, two-way deal worth $575K / $175K (300K guaranteed) in the first year, and $650K / $175K in the second.
Calle Jarnkrok – Signed a six-year, $12MM deal July 27th.

New York Rangers
Kevin Hayes – Signed a two-year, $5.2MM deal Friday afternoon, hours after Kreider.
Chris Kreider – The Rangers and Kreider agreed to a four-year, $18.5MM contract Friday morning, beating the scheduled 9am arbitration meeting.
Dylan McIlrath – The massive defender signed a one-year, $800k contract last week, beating his hearing by a week.
J.T. Miller – World Cup-bound Miller and the Rangers settled on a two-year, $2.75MM contract on July 13.

Ottawa Senators
Mike Hoffman – After a long negotiation, the Senators and Hoffman agreed to a four-year, $20.75MM deal on July 27th.

Philadelphia Flyers
Brandon Manning – Manning got an unexpected second year in his two-year, $1.95MM deal he signed on July 26th.
Brayden Schenn – Schenn and the Flyers agreed to a four-year deal worth $5.125MM AAV.
Jordan Weal – Acquired by the Flyers in the Vincent Lecavalier trade, Weal signed a one-year, two-way, $650K contract the day the arbitration schedule was released.

St. Louis Blues
Jaden Schwartz – The Blues signed their young star to a five-year, $5.5MM contract last week.

Tampa Bay Lightning
Alex Killorn – The clutch playoff performer signed a long-term extension over the weekend, agreeing to $4.45MM per year for seven seasons.
Vladislav Namestnikov – World Cup-bound forward signed a two-year deal worth $1.9375MM on July 26th, three days before arbitration hearing.

Toronto Maple Leafs
Frank Corrado – Toronto signed Corrado to a one-year, one-way deal worth $600K on July 25.
Peter Holland – Holland signed a one-year deal worth $1.3MM on July 25.
Martin Marincin – The promising young shut-down defenseman is scheduled for arbitration on August 2.

Washington Capitals
Marcus Johansson – Johansson agreed to a three-year, $4.58MM contract just minutes before his hearing was set to begin.

CLUB ELECTED FILINGS:

Detroit Red Wings
Petr Mrazek – Just before his hearing on July 27th, Mrazek and the Red Wings inked a two-year, $8MM deal. With Jimmy Howard still earning $5.3MM for next season, the duo is one of the more expensive in the league.

We’ve previously explained the arbitration process as part of our Capology 101 series. Check out our Mike Furlano’s articles on eligibility and the arbitration process.

Full Salary Arbitration Hearing Schedule

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The NHLPA released the full schedule of arbitration hearings today, which will not include Jordan Weal, after he re-signed with the Philadelphia Flyers earlier today. Teams and players can still negotiate up until the hearing, and many will reach agreements before going to arbitration. For more information on the arbitration process, check out part one of our full guide.  Here is the full schedule:

PLAYER ELECTED FILINGS

Arizona Coyotes
Michael Stone – August 4, 2016

Colorado Avalanche
Tyson Barrie – July 29, 2016
Mikhail Grigorenko – July 22, 2016

Detroit Red Wings
Danny DeKeyser – July 28, 2016

Minnesota Wild
Jordan Schroeder – July 27, 2016

Nashville Predators
Calle Jarnkrok – August 4, 2016
Petter Granberg – August 3, 2016

New York Rangers
Kevin Hayes – July 27, 2016
Chris Kreider – July 22, 2016
Dylan McIlrath – July 21, 2016
J.T. Miller – August 2, 2016

Ottawa Senators
Mike Hoffman – August 4, 2016

Philadelphia Flyers
Brandon Manning – August 2, 2016
Brayden Schenn – July 25, 2016

St. Louis Blues
Jaden Schwartz – July 20, 2016

Tampa Bay Lightning
Alex Killorn – July 20, 2016
Vladislav Namestnikov – July 29, 2016

Toronto Maple Leafs
Frank Corrado – July 26, 2016
Peter Holland – July 25, 2016
Martin Marincin – August 2, 2016

Washington Capitals
Marcus Johansson – July 20, 2016

CLUB ELECTED FILINGS

Detroit Red Wings

Petr Mrazek – July 27, 2016

List Of Players Filing For Arbitration

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The deadline for a player to file for salary arbitration is at 6pm today, with many players choosing to negotiate until the last day before submitting their request. For a full list of players eligible to file for arbitration, check out Cap Friendly’s Arbitration Calculator. Here is the full list of players who filed today:

Arizona Coyotes
Michael Stone

Colorado Avalanche
Tyson Barrie
Mikhail Grigorenko

Detroit Red Wings
Jared Coreau
Danny DeKeyser

Minnesota Wild
Jordan Schroeder

Nashville Predators
Calle Jarnkrok
Petter Granberg

New York Rangers
Kevin Hayes
Chris Kreider
Dylan McIlrath
J.T. Miller

New Jersey Devils
Kyle Palmieri

Ottawa Senators
Mike Hoffman

Philadelphia Flyers
Brandon Manning
Brayden Schenn
Jordan Weal

St. Louis Blues
Jaden Schwartz

Tampa Bay Lightning
Alex Killorn
Vladislav Namestnikov

Toronto Maple Leafs
Frank Corrado
Peter Holland
Martin Marincin

Washington Capitals
Marcus Johansson

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