Carl Söderberg Announces Retirement
Swedish forward Carl Söderberg, who played in nearly 600 NHL games, has made the decision to end his playing career at the age of 37.
Söderberg’s retirement announcement, made via SportExpressen’s Johan Svensson, comes after the player’s second season playing SHL hockey with the Malmö Redhawks and two seasons removed from his last NHL campaign.
Söderberg was selected by the St. Louis Blues in the second round of the 2004 draft, 49th overall. He was seen as a toolsy six-foot-three forward who impressed at the junior level for Malmö, scoring 48 points in 27 games, and even managed to play in 24 games for Malmö’s first-team squad.
Söderberg struggled the following season, scoring just five points in 38 games as Malmö were relegated to the second-tier HockeyAllsvenskan.
In the Allsvenskan is where Söderberg took the first developmental leap of his career, scoring 39 points in 39 games and leading Malmö to promotion back to the top tier of Swedish hockey. Söderberg looked poised to keep the good times rolling the following season in 2006-07, scoring 30 points in 31 games at a significantly increased competition level compared to the Allsvenskan, before he was thrown a potentially career-threatening challenge.
After an opposing player’s attempted stick lift went awry, Söderberg was left with a detached retina and forced to undergo what he estimates was between eight to ten surgeries on his left eye. Söderberg missed quite a bit of time as a result and became legally blind in one eye, but ultimately returned to the ice for Malmö and became a top scorer for the club for the next four seasons, all played at the Allsvenskan level.
Söderberg would then move on from Malmö and spend two years with IK Oskarshamn in Sweden’s top league, finishing the 2012-13 season leading the league in goals with 31 to go alongside 60 total points. At that point he was 27 and decided he would try his luck in the NHL, signing a deal with the Boston Bruins. Although Söderberg’s career technically began poorly, as the Bruins suffered a heartbreaking loss in the 2013 Stanley Cup Final, Söderberg himself would go on to provide a major return on investment for the Bruins.
He scored 16 goals and 48 points in his rookie 2013-14 season and followed that up with 44 points as a sophomore. That earned Söderberg a hefty five-year, $4.75MM AAV contract with the Colorado Avalanche, where he would immediately set a career-high of 51 points and in 2018-19 hit the 20-goal plateau for the first time in his career.
In 2019 Söderberg was dealt to the Arizona Coyotes for what would be the final productive season of his career. After a 2020-21 season spent largely in depth roles for the Chicago Blackhawks and Avalanche, Söderberg returned to where it all started, to the SHL and Malmö. He would lead the team in scoring in 2021-22 and although his numbers declined this past season his 14 goals and 26 points played a crucial role in the club avoiding relegation and maintaining its spot in the SHL.
Although the Avalanche would go on to finally win the Stanley Cup championship they’d been building towards in 2021-22, Söderberg’s first away from the NHL, the leadership and the guidance Söderberg provided for younger players during the early days of the careers of players such as Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon means his contributions to the team’s eventual championship are undoubtable.
Beyond club hockey, Söderberg represented Sweden at the 2016 World Cup of Hockey and 2017 IIHF Men’s World Championships, winning a gold medal at the latter event. He finishes his career with quite a bit to be proud of, especially considering the major adversity he faced early in his career.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Boston Bruins, Trent Frederic Reach Pre-Arbitration Settlement
11:00 AM: The Bruins have now officially announced the agreement, confirming the terms that were first reported by Friedman.
9:00 AM: The Boston Bruins have reached an agreement on a new contract with RFA forward Trent Frederic before today’s scheduled arbitration hearing. According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the Bruins have agreed with Frederic on a two-year, $2.3MM AAV contract extension. According to Bally Sports Midwest’s Andy Strickland, the deal has a $250k signing bonus in its first year. 
The contract comes closer to Frederic’s desired AAV (he had filed for a one-year, $2.9MM deal) at the cost of an extra year of term, something the Bruins filed for albeit at a $1.4MM AAV.
In our more detailed breakdown of Frederic’s arbitration case, we projected “Frederic’s likely award very near to but likely slightly above the midpoint of $2.15MM,” which is exactly where this settlement came in.
At a $150k higher rate than the midpoint of the two parties’ filings, the Bruins have rewarded their second 2016 first-round pick for his breakout 2022-23 campaign. Frederic flew past his career highs to register 17 goals and 31 points in 79 games last season even while averaging just under 12 minutes of ice time per night.
As mentioned in our breakdown, Frederic’s possession-based metrics indicate his production this season isn’t likely to be that of a one-year wonder, although one does wonder how he’d hold up if exposed to a more demanding role requiring him to handle more substantial minutes.
Frederic doesn’t boast a ton of offensive skill but as a six-foot-three, 214-pound forward with the versatility to play center or along the wing Frederic is the sort of forward who plays with an edge and provides enough scoring touch to be coveted by many clubs. This settlement marches Frederic to the unrestricted free agent market in two year’s time, and if he can seize the significant opportunity in front of him he could be lined up for a major payday at that point.
With Boston’s top two centers from last season in Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci out the door, Frederic could potentially get the opportunity to play center for one of Boston’s scoring lines, potentially slotting next to a star such as David Pastrnak or Brad Marchand. Although players such as Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle are undoubtedly going to be first in line for those opportunities, Frederic could get his chance, which would be a potentially career-defining opportunity.
This two-year contract provides Frederic with a significant opportunity, but also heightened expectations. Now paid more than double the $1.05MM cap hit he played last season on, Frederic can no longer be the physical fourth-line presence he was earlier in his career. He’ll need to be more, and if he can do so he could stand to make quite a bit of money in two year’s time thanks to this new contract.
As for where this leaves the Bruins, they now have just over $3.1MM in cap space left over, and still await an arbitration award in netminder Jeremy Swayman‘s case. Swayman had his arbitration hearing on July 30th and therefore should have his award come in today, meaning the Bruins are close to reaching cost certainty for the team’s expected 2023-24 roster.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Minor Transactions: 08/01/23
As the calendar turns to August, more and more clubs across the hockey world are putting the finishing touches on the roster they’ll bring into their training camps for next season. Most major European pro leagues begin in early to mid-September, including Liiga, the DEL, the Swiss NL, and the SHL. Liiga preseason actually begins on Friday, meaning we’re quickly reaching the point when the 2023-24 season truly begins overseas. As always, we’ll keep track of notable player movement in minor and foreign leagues here.
- 27-year-old defenseman Bobby Nardella has found success pretty much everywhere he’s played over the last decade, from being a star USHLer to a second-team All-American at Notre Dame to now a Calder Cup Champion in the AHL in just his fourth season of pro hockey. But despite his strong play in the AHL regular season with the Hershey Bears, the undersized left-shot blueliner hasn’t yet earned his first NHL game, and now he’s guaranteed that he won’t receive that chance at least until 2024-25. Nardella signed a one-year contract with HV71 in the SHL. Nardella heads to Jönköping with 47 games of SHL experience already under his belt, as he played there on loan during the COVID-19-impacted 2020-21 campaign. He led Djurgårdens IF in scoring with 33 points in 47 games and will likely be a key player next year for HV71.
- Like Nardella, Sami Lepistö played a key role as a defenseman during a Hershey Bears Calder Cup championship, scoring 42 points in 70 games during the team’s championship season in 2008-09. Unlike Nardella, Lepistö played in 14 career NHL games by the end of that season and the following season he broke into the NHL full-time with the Coyotes. Lepistö would ultimately play in 176 NHL games before embarking on a long and extremely successful career in Europe that would see him win two Olympic medals and be named to three consecutive KHL All-Star games. Today, Lepistö, 38, announced his retirement due to medical considerations, ending his storied career that saw him last play for the SCL Tigers in the Swiss NL, where he helped the club avoid relegation.
- A stunning goal from 32-year-old defenseman Miks Indrašis sent the home crowd in Riga into a frenzy earlier this summer, lifting Latvia to an upset victory over heavily-favored Sweden in the quarterfinals of the IIHF Men’s World Championships, one of the biggest wins in the history of Latvian hockey. Now, Indrašis is headed to the country he upset to continue his pro career. He’s signed a one-year contract with Brynäs IF in HockeyAllsvenskan, the second tier of Swedish hockey. Indrašis is a lanky six-foot-four blueliner who scored 29 points in 53 games for the DEL’s Schwenningen Wild Wings and is likely to play a regular role for Brynäs during what will be his first campaign playing in Scandinavia.
- 2007 Nashville Predators second-round pick and former ECHL Kelly Cup Playoffs MVP Jeremy Smith has signed a three-year contract extension to remain with the KHL’s Kunlun Red Star through his age-36 season. The American netminder has played for Kunlun since 2019-20 and is the franchise’s all-time leader in wins and saves. Smith represented China at the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing and is coming off of a strong bounce-back season as Kunlun’s number-one goalie, posting an impressive .914 save percentage despite a grisly 10-24-2 overall record.
- Veteran DEL defenseman Jonas Müller, a regular representative of Germany in IIHF play, has signed an early four-year contract extension to remain with his club Eisbären Berlin. Although Berlin endured a difficult 2022-23 season, Müller ended his campaign on a highly positive note as he played a role in Germany taking home a silver medal at the 2023 IIHF Men’s World Championships. Müller also has a silver medal from the 2018 Winter Olympics and despite being just 27 years old already has over 400 DEL games on his resume and two league championships. Müller averaged the most nightly minutes of any Berlin player and this contract ensures he’ll be the team’s defensive centerpiece moving forward.
- Former Montreal Canadiens prospect Martin Réway finished his 2022-23 campaign on a high note, scoring 12 points in 13 playoff games for Slovakia’s HK Spisska Nova Ves. Per a social media announcement from the club, Réway has signed a contract for next season with HK 32 Liptovský Mikuláš. Réway, 28, was a 2013 fourth-round pick who starred in the QMJHL but only managed five games playing in the AHL for the Canadiens’ affiliate. Réway’s last few years have been among the most productive in his career and this signing with Liptovský Mikuláš will potentially help the club avoid relegation to the second tier of Slovak hockey.
This page may be updated throughout the day.
Oilers Notes: McLeod, Centers, Bouchard
Kurt Leavins of The Edmonton Journal writes that he has been hearing that the Edmonton Oilers and restricted free-agent center Ryan McLeod were closing in on a new contract, but that the goalposts might have moved. What exactly that means is unclear and Leavins doesn’t speculate in the article, however, according to Robert Tychkowski of the Edmonton Sun, the Oilers have been trying to sign McLeod to a contract with a cap hit of around $2MM and with the arbitration ruling for Philipp Kurashev, they might be looking at a higher number. Kurashev received $2.25MM in his arbitration ruling and given McLeod’s track record he has a good case for a number north of that.
Couple that piece of information with the news that Leavins believes that the Oilers could be looking to bring in some centers on PTOs before training camp and it is a development that isn’t overly encouraging for Oilers fans. However, it doesn’t change the fact that McLeod and the Oilers are set to go to arbitration on August 4th and there are no guarantees of a higher salary for McLeod. He will be pencilled into the lineup once that ruling comes down, meaning there isn’t a threat of him not being signed.
McLeod hasn’t exactly set the world on fire in his first three seasons in the league, but this past season was his best thus far as he posted 11 goals and 12 assists in 57 games while posting a Corsi For % of 53.8%, meaning that the Oilers were controlling the puck more than half the time McLeod was on the ice. The 23-year-old has improved in every season since he started in the NHL and could be just scratching the surface of what he can be.
In other Oilers notes:
- As mentioned above Leavins believes the Oilers are looking at improving their center depth, and while bringing in centers on a PTO is an option, Leavins also thinks that Edmonton will look at a possible in-season trade as another solution. The Oilers won’t have a ton of cap space (if any) after they sign their remaining restricted free agents, which is likely why Leavins mentions Jake Evans of the Montreal Canadiens and Nic Dowd of the Washington Capitals as possible targets. Dowd has two years left on his current deal at $1.3MM while Evans also has two years remaining and is owed $1.7MM in each of the next two years.
- Robert Tychkowski of the Edmonton Sun writes that he believes the Oilers have dodged a bullet and he doesn’t expect an offer sheet to come this late in the off-season for restricted free-agent defenseman Evan Bouchard. That’s good news for Oilers fans, but it also isn’t all that surprising given the rarity in which offer sheets are utilized. Leavins wrote today that he believes the Oilers and Bouchard are close to a deal but doesn’t give any details. Given the Oilers tight cap situation it does seem highly likely that they will sign a bridge deal with their budding defenseman which could open the door for him to sign a very lucrative extension soon should he continue to quarterback the league’s best power play. Bouchard had eight goals and 32 assists this past season in 82 games, but just 13 of his 40 regular season points came with the man advantage. In the playoffs, it was a different story as Bouchard had four goals and 11 assists on the power play in just 12 playoff games.
Free Agent Profile: Martin Jones
Martin Jones career arc as a professional hockey player has been interesting to follow. He emerged in 2013-14 with the Los Angeles Kings as a solid backup to star goaltender Jonathan Quick going 16-11-2 over two seasons with a .923 save percentage and a 1.99 goals-against average. He was then traded to the Boston Bruins in June 2015 as part of a package for Milan Lucic before then being shipped back West to the San Jose Sharks for a first-round pick.
It was in San Jose in 2015-16 that Jones established himself as a bonafide starting goaltender and led the Sharks to within two wins of the Stanley Cup. Jones was terrific through his first three seasons in San Jose compiling a record of 102-68-16 while consistently posting a save percentage around .915. He was also a workhorse during his first four seasons dressing in over 60 games each year. In July 2017, San Jose felt so confident that Jones was their goalie of the future that they locked him up to a lucrative six-year deal worth a total of $34.5MM
But the Sharks’ confidence in the North Vancouver, British Columbia native quickly waned as Jones posted three consecutive years with a save percentage below .900. Realizing that his play was dropping off, the Sharks bought Jones out of the final three years of his contract in July 2021, a move that left them with a cap hit of almost $2MM annually until 2026-27. After Jones was unceremoniously bought out of his contract, he signed a one-year $2MM deal with the Philadelphia Flyers and posted numbers that mirrored his final three seasons in San Jose going 12-18-3 with a .900 save percentage and a 3.42 goals-against.
Last summer, after all the initial excitement of free agency had cleared, Jones signed a one-year contract with the Seattle Kraken in a move that was largely without any fanfare. The deal seemed like a good match as the Kraken viewed Jones as a good third option behind Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger, and Jones was looking for an opportunity to rebuild his stock in free agency.
It wasn’t long before Jones had de-throned Driedger as the Kraken’s backup to Grubauer and for stretches of the season Jones looked to be on the cusp of taking over the starter’s role. His win-loss record was terrific as Jones went 27-13-3 in 48 games, however, his save-percentage remained low at .886. As the playoffs began, Jones lost the Kraken net and was an afterthought once Grubauer regained the starting role and took the team to their first-ever playoff victory over the Colorado Avalanche. If you look closer at the numbers though, you will see that Jones started the season on fire, with 10 of his first 15 starts coming in as quality starts. But as the season wore on, Jones faded and was possibly overworked into exhaustion, which might explain his drop-in play later in the year.
Now, at 33 years old Jones is at a bit of a crossroads in his career. He was once an above-average starter on the cusp of being elite, but he hasn’t been in that realm for several years. It’s possible he may still view himself as a starter or a solid backup, however, the numbers don’t lie and they show that at this point in his career Jones is a below-average option in net. Which might explain why he is still unsigned this deep into the offseason.
Stats
2022-23: 48 GP, 27-13-3, 2.99 GAA, .886 SV%, 3 SO
Career: 444 GP, 225-163-35, 2.71 GAA, .905 SV%, 28 SO
Potential Suitors
Over the last decade or so it seems more common that teams have relied on more than two goalies to get to the Stanley Cup. The Penguins did it in 2016 and probably wished they had three goaltenders in 2022 when they lost starter Tristan Jarry and backup Casey DeSmith to injury. The Vegas Golden Knights did it this year as well as they relied on Adin Hill to lead them to their first Stanley Cup after losing multiple goalies to injury throughout the year. That is the puzzling piece with Jones, he could be a terrific third option on a team that is desperate for goaltending depth, as proven by his presence in Seattle last season. One might wonder if Jones thought he could get more money early on and perhaps priced himself out of a deal in the early days of free agency. Alex Nedeljkovic took a one-year deal for $1.5MM in Pittsburgh to be their third-stringer and I’d be curious to see if Martin Jones had any similar offers in early July.
Whether or not Jones has had any offers is moot at this point, he remains unsigned and while a lot of teams like Pittsburgh addressed their goaltending depth, some teams could still use some help.
We’ll start in the West with the Vancouver Canucks. Jones is from North Vancouver, and when a player comes up for free agency there is always speculation about a return home. In the case of Jones to the Canucks, a return would make a lot of sense. The Canucks received a lot of very poor goaltending last season when starter Thatcher Demko went down to an injury. And while Spencer Martin tried valiantly to fill the void left by Demko, he just isn’t skilled enough to be relied upon as a regular NHL backup. However, the Canucks currently have Martin pencilled in to be the backup to Demko, and that probably isn’t going to be good enough for a team that aspires of making the playoffs once again. The Canucks have had a tumultuous couple of seasons, particularly last season, and could use some more stability in what is arguably the most important position.
Over in the East, a team that could use some depth in the crease is the New Jersey Devils. The Devils have been rumored to be interested in several goaltending options including John Gibson and Connor Hellebuyck, but both of those goaltenders would represent a huge commitment financially and would require a lot of trade assets. The Devils do need some type of improvement in the crease, be it from outside help or internal improvement. The Devils relied on the tandem of Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid last season, and while they were good enough to get the Devils to the second round of the playoffs, neither goalie has a history of playing at a high level in the NHL. Vanecek has been a league-average netminder for his three seasons in the NHL while Schmid was terrific in his first season in the league but played just 18 games. Jones would provide the Devils with a veteran presence that could push the Devils’ two young goalies for playing time while providing leadership, guidance and most importantly, depth. Jones isn’t going to turn into a Vezina candidate overnight, but he also won’t cost the Devils any assets and would come cheap.
Projected Contract
Like many of the remaining unrestricted free agents, Jones is likely going to take a significant pay cut for the upcoming season. Jones made $2MM with the Kraken last season and would be lucky to fetch a one-year deal for half of that at this point in the offseason. Whatever team signs Jones will likely see him as a depth option who can start for an extended period should one of their top goaltenders go down to an injury. While there is value in that, the flat cap world has left many of the players like Jones scratching and clawing to stay in the league. Career tweener goaltenders such as Louie Domingue have managed to find guaranteed salaries at league minimum in recent years and one would have to think that Jones will end up with a similar fate.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Josh Ho-Sang Contemplating Retirement
According to a report in Sport Express, former New York Islanders forward Josh Ho-Sang is reportedly considering retirement and has informed his KHL club, Ufa Salavat Yulaev, that he is still talking to his family about a decision. Ho-Sang was a first-round pick of the Islanders in 2014 and was never able to establish himself as an NHL regular despite possessing a ton of offensive talent.
Ho-Sang signed in the KHL last year with Ufa and in his first game against SKA in September he had an assist. Unfortunately, in that same game, he was injured and missed the remainder of the regular season. He underwent surgery and returned to play in four playoff games, where he went scoreless.
The injury itself isn’t the issue holding up Ho-Sang’s return as according to David Alter of The Hockey News it is possible that Ho-Sang could return to the KHL, but if he were to do this, he would need to become a Russian citizen. While he hasn’t ruled this out, the Thornhill, Ontario native hasn’t said that he has an interest in doing this, which is likely the issue being discussed with his family at the moment.
According to Alter, Ufa Salavat Yulaev has prepared the paperwork for Ho-Sang to become a citizen, should he decide to return to the team this season.
Ho-Sang lasted played in North America with the Toronto Marlies in 2021-22. During his time in the AHL with Toronto, he posted 16 goals and 19 assists in 47 games.
Examining Maple Leafs Bargain Bin Free Agent Targets
Joshua Kloke of The Athletic wrote an article today highlighting seven bargain bin free agent targets that could help the Toronto Maple Leafs next season. The Maple Leafs currently sit about $2MM over the salary cap despite putting Jake Muzzin and Matt Murray on LTIR for next year, making it difficult to imagine Toronto doing much shopping in free agency unless they sign two-way deals or move out a contract. The names on the list were interesting, and certainly, they reflect the Maple Leafs’ salary cap predicament.
The most interesting name on Kloke’s list was three-time Stanley Cup champion Jonathan Toews. Much speculation has been made this off-season about the future of Toews as he has battled health issues the past few seasons and may be leaning towards retirement. Toews was effective last year, albeit in limited action as he dressed in just 53 games and put up 15 goals and 16 assists. The former captain of the Chicago Blackhawks doesn’t have much to play for at this point, but if he were to choose the Maple Leafs as a destination, he could slide into a similar role that Jason Spezza and Joe Thornton had when they arrived in Toronto a few years ago. Toews could be a very effective fourth-line center for Toronto even at this point in his career, but one must wonder if wants to.
Zach Aston-Reese was another name on the list and is coming off a season in which he scored a career-high 10 goals with Toronto. By all accounts, Aston-Reese was well-liked in Toronto and was effective for them in a fourth-line role. We profiled the Staten Island, New York native just days ago in our Free Agent Profile series and highlighted that the 28-year-old has some of the best defensive analytics in the league but offers very little offensively.
Another name on the list was a young reclamation project and that is 25-year-old Jesse Puljujarvi. The right-winger is coming off a very disappointing season in which he scored just five goals and was dumped by the Edmonton Oilers in a cap-cutting move last year. Puljujarvi has been a disappointment in his young career after getting drafted fourth overall in 2016. He has just 51 goals and 63 assists in 334 NHL games but is just a year removed from a 36-point season in 2021-22. The Maple Leafs would probably be a good landing spot for Puljujarvi as he could play in more of a sheltered role in Toronto and wouldn’t be relied upon to provide much offence. On the flip side of that, he struggled to play with skilled players like Connor McDavid, which leads to speculation about whether he’d be able to play with any of Toronto’s skilled forwards.
The most realistic target for the Maple Leafs on the list was center Derick Brassard. Brassard entered last season on a professional tryout with the Ottawa Senators and put up decent numbers in limited playing time. The 35-year-old had 13 goals and 10 assists in 62 games while averaging just 12 minutes of ice time per game. It’s possible that Brassard might also elect to retire, but he did express a desire to keep playing at the end of last year. He also enjoyed playing closer to home having grown up in Hull, Quebec, which is just across the river from Ottawa. Should Brassard want to stay close to family, Toronto would make sense. From the Maple Leafs’ perspective, there is no harm in bringing in a veteran like Brassard on a one-year deal for the league minimum. He would give them a scoring option in the bottom six who can fill in at center, and they could bury his contract in the minors without penalty should things not work out.
The other names on Kloke’s list were defensemen Ethan Bear and Scott Harrington, as well as forward Sam Gagner. Harrington is a former Maple Leaf and could offer some depth on the backend, while Bear is expected to miss a significant chunk of the year and would be a mid-season addition. Gagner could offer the Leafs some depth scoring on the fourth line and is close with John Taveres from their days playing in London. Perhaps a return home could be possible for the 33-year-old Gagner.
Arbitration Breakdown: Troy Terry
With the Minnesota Wild settling with goaltender Filip Gustavsson today, the biggest name left yet to have his arbitration hearing is undoubtedly Anaheim Ducks forward Troy Terry. There are just a handful of days to go in this year’s arbitration calendar, and Terry is set to have his hearing on Wednesday, August 2, meaning he’ll have a contract for next season in place by this Friday at the latest. The Ducks still have franchise cornerstone center Trevor Zegras to sign for next season, although he was not eligible for arbitration.
Filings
Team: $4.5MM
Player: $8MM
Midpoint: $6.25MM
(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)
The Numbers
Last season proved to be a pivotal year for Troy Terry, once again demonstrating his ability to be a high-end top-six scoring forward without much help around him. He showed his breakout campaign in 2021-22 was no fluke, tying his career-high in goals and setting new career-highs in even-strength assists and average time on ice.
Set to turn 26 in September, Terry’s journey has certainly not mirrored the temperate expectations Anaheim had for him when they selected him in the fifth round of the 2015 NHL Draft. He has unquestionably evolved into one of the most significant value picks of the last decade, transforming into a bonafide top-six winger after giving him plenty of time to develop at the University of Denver and in the minors with the AHL’s San Diego Gulls. He’s a well-rounded offensive talent and far from a liability defensively – in fact, he’d posted above-average advanced results in 2020-21 and 2021-22.
With Terry just now teetering on the edge of unrestricted free agency next offseason, there’s little reason to be afraid of a setback in his abilities or production. The linearity of his development and the wide range of positive advanced indicators regarding his sustainability as a top-six scoring winger has left many Ducks fans puzzled about how arbitration may be required to get him under contract.
Arbitration isn’t something the Ducks likely desire – he’s only two seasons away from unrestricted free agency in 2025, and a short-term deal risks losing him for nothing at that point. At what lengths (one or two years) the Ducks and Terry filed is unclear.
2022-23 Stats: 70 GP, 23-38-61, -8 rating, 22 PIMs, 188 shots, 19:22 ATOI, 49.2 CF%
Career Stats: 274 GP, 75-101-176, -17 rating, 74 PIMs, 550 shots, 16:43 ATOI, 49.8 CF%
Potential Comparables
Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of Terry’s negotiation.
Jesper Bratt (New Jersey Devils) – Despite his solid play, the seemingly most comparable case to Terry’s isn’t all that favorable to him. Bratt and the Devils had to get a one-year contract awarded via arbitration last season, totaling $5.45MM. At the time, Bratt had slightly more NHL experience at 307 games played but had scored 203 total points, a similar career-scoring pace to Terry. However, it’s worth noting that Bratt hadn’t demonstrated the consistency immediately before his arbitration hearing that Terry has – Bratt had just seven goals in the 2020-21 campaign, while Terry had scored 20-plus goals in each of the two seasons leading up to his hearing. Unfortunately for Terry, this is one of the closest comparables out there for his situation, and it’s significantly lower than his midpoint of $6.25MM.
Kevin Fiala (Minnesota Wild) – This was another one-year pact dished out by an arbitrator, except it was one season before Bratt’s in 2021. The deal came in at a marginally lower cap hit of $5.1MM, but Terry had better career offensive numbers at the time of signing – remember, this Fiala deal was signed before he posted back-to-back seasons above a point per game. This strikes as a low-end comparable for Terry – it would be surprising to see the arbitrator side any further toward the Ducks than this.
Projection
This is one of the more complex cases this summer to predict. It’s partially because of the wide gap in filings between the two parties (leaving lots of room for error around the midpoint) but also the lack of an excellent comparable for a player with as little experience and as old as Terry, already deep into his mid-20s.
That said, things don’t look promising for Terry to get anything close to his sky-high wish of $8MM. It’s become clear that deals settled by an arbitrator rarely carry such an exorbitant price, and he likely doesn’t have the many seasons of experience under his belt to justify a change in pace, even if things do look promising for him to continue his solid trajectory in the future.
This may be one of the first deals we predict to fall below the midpoint this summer. While both Anaheim and Terry have gone for extreme filings here, Terry’s comparables are not kind, and there’s little argument based on past arbitrator decisions for him to receive anything above the $6.25MM midpoint here. A deal in the $5.5MM-$6.25MM range seems much more realistic when considering the stagnant cap over the past few seasons and the lack of willingness from arbitrators to dish out deals high into the $6-8MM range.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Seeking Writers For Pro Hockey Rumors
At the start of 2023, we at Pro Hockey Rumors called for new writers that proved fruitful. We grew the PHR family to its largest size, adding a long-term pair of great teammates in Brennan McClain and Josh Cybulski. As the chaos of the draft and free agency season has passed, we’re now looking to expand our team once again.
PHR is looking to hire part-time writers available to chip in on daytime coverage (before 3 p.m. CT) from Monday through Thursday. The biggest areas of need are:
- 7 a.m. – 1 p.m. CT, Monday and Wednesday
- 12 p.m. – 3 p.m. CT, Tuesday and Thursday
The position pays on an hourly basis. Applicants must meet all of the following criteria:
- Exceptional knowledge of all 32 NHL teams, with no discernible bias.
- Understanding of the salary cap, CBA, and transaction-related concepts.
- At least some college education.
- Extensive writing experience, professional experience, and a background in journalism are strongly preferred.
- Keen understanding of journalistic principles, ethics, and procedures. Completion of basic college-level journalism classes is strongly preferred.
- Attention to detail — absolutely no spelling errors, especially for player and journalist names.
- Ability to follow the site’s style and tone.
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Dmitri Samorukov Signs AHL Contract In Penguins Organization
The AHL’s Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins have signed former Edmonton Oilers and St. Louis Blues defenseman Dmitri Samorukov to a contract for the 2023-24 season, per a team announcement today. The move does make him a member of the Pittsburgh Penguins organization on contract with their AHL affiliate. However, without an NHL contract, any NHL team can still place offers for (and sign) Samorukov.
A 2017 third-round selection of the Oilers, Samorukov was once viewed as one of their organization’s more intriguing defensive prospects. After a 2021-22 season in which he only appeared in one NHL contest for the Oilers, however, they dealt him to the St. Louis Blues in exchange for young forward Klim Kostin, a swap of young prospects who both needed fresh starts on new teams.
While Kostin panned out into a solid depth forward for Edmonton last year, the same can’t be said for Samorukov, who spent most of the season in the minors again. St. Louis only iced the 24-year-old in two games, in which he was held off the scoresheet and averaged 14:53 of ice time. He did, however, post a career-high four goals and 20 points in 69 games with the AHL’s Springfield Thunderbirds, with whom he played a top-four role.
Samorukov is only the second defender Wilkes-Barre/Scranton has under AHL contract. However, he’ll now need to compete with a bevy of Penguins prospects who will be given priority for ice time and development purposes. While he should still be an everyday player at the AHL level, he likely won’t receive as much opportunity as he did last season in Springfield while under contract with the Blues.