The Odds Of Drafting A Superstar And The 2018 NHL Draft
Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Tyler Dellow went to work trying to figure out how the Ottawa Senators could maximize their trade return (subscription required) for Erik Karlsson, should the team decide to move the all-world defenseman prior to the NHL Trade Deadline on February 26th or at least before the 2018 NHL Entry Draft on June 22nd. Dellow surmised that in order to get anywhere near a fair return for Karlsson, Ottawa would need to acquire draft picks that could give them the best chance of finding a “franchise cornerstone” to replace him. The best-case-scenario for the Sens would obviously be to land the #1 overall pick in the lottery and the opportunity to draft the consensus top pick, Karlsson clone Rasmus Dahlin – a scenario that would not even require moving Karlsson. However, with the Arizona Coyotes and Buffalo Sabres likely having better lottery odds and another 12 teams having a chance at the top pick as well, its unlikely that the Senators choose first overall. Dahlin’s generational talent also means the lucky team that lands #1 isn’t moving it, even for Karlsson. So what then is the chance of finding a superstar in the draft? Dellow’s analysis produced these results:
- First pick: 90 percent,
- Second pick: 60 percent
- Third or Fourth pick: 15 percent
- Picks 5-20: 5 percent
- Picks 21-30: 2 percent
- Picks 31-60: 1 percent
- Picks 61+: .07 percent
While there is a considerable drop-off from the first pick to the second and the second to the third, it’s clear that picks #2 and #3 still hold immense value. Dellow goes on to describe the infrequency with which those picks are moved, citing Alexei Yashin-for-Jason Spezza and the drafting of Henrik and Daniel Sedin are rare recent examples. Dellow’s thesis continues that the current Vancouver Canucks could be a rare team willing to part with a high pick, if it meant landing Karlsson.
However what if Karlsson isn’t traded by the Draft – a situation that is far more likely than the media would make it out to be – would the normally untouchable top three picks be back off the table? Obviously, the results of the draft lottery matter immensely and the #1 pick will surely not be moved this year. More likely than not, #2 is going nowhere as well. Yet, the status of the 2018 draft class leads to much intrigue over the #3 pick, which historically has a 15% chance of landing a superstar. Unlike past years, there is no consensus second-best player in 2018. In some order, Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick were going 1-2 in 2017, as were Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine in 2016, and no one was going right behind Connor McDavid other than Jack Eichel in 2015. This year’s crop offers a situation unlike the last few seasons, wherein Dahlin is guaranteed to go first overall – and will be off the draft board of everyone but the lottery winner before the draft even begins – but the following picks are unpredictable. At #2, it could be Russian sniper Andrei Svechnikov, sleek Czech forward Filip Zadina, big, skilled Americans Brady Tkachuk or Oliver Wahlstrom, or a D-needy team with the second pick could even go off the board for a defenseman.
The decision on the second overall pick in 2018 will undeniably result in the top player on many teams’ board being selected, but the top player on many other teams’ board falling to #3. If that team at third overall was hoping to take the player selected at #2, now things could get interesting. According to Dellow’s results, the team at #3 has now lost a 45% chance of finding their next franchise player, but could trade out of the pick and still end up with one (or more) top 20 pick(s), each with a 5% chance of becoming a star, as well as possibly an established pick or player. If you put trust into a model like Dellow’s, a deal like this becomes much more about math and odds than simply taking the risk of trading back out of disappointment with the draft order.
Going back to the Karlsson-to-Vancouver hypothetical, imagine that the Canucks land the #3 overall pick while the Senators have a pick in the 5-20 range, either by the lottery or an additional pick from an upcoming trade. Vancouver hypothetically wanted Zadina, who went #2, while the top player on Ottawa’s board was Tkachuk (or maybe a defenseman like Adam Boqvist). Vancouver could, as Dellow proposes, offer the Sens the third pick – and a 15% chance at a star – and a prospect like Olli Juolevi, the fifth overall pick in 2016 – who holds a 5% chance of becoming a star himself – as part of a larger package for Karlsson and a first. Ottawa nets a 20% chance of adding a cornerstone player, including at least one potential replacement on the blue line, and Vancouver holds onto a 5% chance of finding a star of their own with the later first rounder. The 10% loss for Vancouver is more than made up by the gain of a bona fide star in Karlsson. Could a deal like this happen? For sure. Will it? Probably not, but Dellow’s analysis of draft pick values and a seemingly volatile draft board in 2018 helps to illuminate the possibilities of some fascinating, unprecedented deals early on at the 2018 Draft.
Bobby Ryan Dealing With Hand Injury For Fourth Time This Season
- Bobby Ryan’s hand troubles have surfaced yet again. The Senators winger has been ruled out for the weekend with a hand injury and head coach Guy Boucher told reporters, including Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch, that he is doubtful to play next week as well. This is Ryan’s fourth different hand injury already this season and his eighth since 2014-15. When he has been healthy, the veteran has been relatively productive with 20 points (7-13-20) in 39 games so far this season.
Minor Transactions: 01/31/18
On the last day of January, teams around the league will have to take stock of where they sit in the grand scheme of the NHL, and start to decide whether this is really the year they want to pursue a championship. Bubble clubs will either push their chips to the middle, or muck their cards quickly and prepare for next season’s hand. As they prepare, we’ll keep track of all the minor moves right here.
- The Boston Bruins have recalled Peter Cehlarik on an emergency basis, after the team was banged up a bit last night. David Backes would leave the game after taking a big hit from Nick Ritchie, while Anders Bjork suffered his own upper-body injury.
- Ottawa has sent Erik Burgdoerfer back to the minor leagues for the time being, which could mean a return to action for Johnny Oduya. Burgdoerfer had played just a single game for the Senators this season, and isn’t much more than a depth option at this point in his career. The team also sent Filip Chlapik back later in the day, likely meaning he’s healthy enough to get back on the ice.
- Jason Demers has been moved to injured reserve for the Arizona Coyotes, and the team has decided to call up Kyle Capobianco in his place. Capobianco made his NHL debut earlier this season and is an intriguing prospect with good offensive instincts.
- The St. Louis Blues have sent Oskar Sundqvist to the San Antonio Rampage, and re-assigned Jake Walman to the Binghamton Devils. Sundqvist’s assignment comes with some intrigue, as he would require waivers to be sent down unless it is on a conditioning stint.
- The Columbus Blue Jackets have sent Markus Hannikainen back to the minor leagues, now that Brandon Dubinsky is back to game action and Sonny Milano is getting closer to a return. Hannikainen has four points in 27 games for the Blue Jackets this season.
Final Standings Projections At The Mid-Way Point
It’s impossible to tell exactly how the remainder of the 2017-18 season will shake out, but with the NHL set to resume it’s unofficial second half of the season tomorrow, there’s no better time to look at the current state of the league. The final standings could look much like they do now or they could differ greatly, depending on whether or not the status quo shifts over the next few months. The trade deadline, rookie wall, and the health rigors of an 82-game season can all change the course of the campaign for many teams, but as of now, this is what the final standings and 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs will look like:
Atlantic Division
- Tampa Bay Lightning – 119 points
- Boston Bruins – 115 points
- Toronto Maple Leafs – 98 points
- Detroit Red Wings – 79 points
- Montreal Canadiens – 77 points
- Florida Panthers – 77 points
- Ottawa Senators – 68 points
- Buffalo Sabres – 62 points
Metropolitan Division
- Washington Capitals – 105 points
- New Jersey Devils – 96 points
- Columbus Blue Jackets – 95 points
- Philadelphia Flyers – 94 points
- Pittsburgh Penguins – 92 points
- New York Islanders – 90 points
- New York Rangers – 90 points
- Carolina Hurricanes – 87 points
Eastern Conference First Round Playoff Match-ups:
#1A Tampa Bay vs. #2W Pittsburgh
#1M Washington vs. #1W Philadelphia
#2A Boston vs. #3A Toronto
#2M New Jersey vs. #3M Columbus
Central Division
- Nashville Predators – 113 points
- Winnipeg Jets – 108 points
- St. Louis Blues – 101 points
- Dallas Stars – 98 points
- Colorado Avalanche – 97 points
- Minnesota Wild – 95 points
- Chicago Blackhawks – 89 points
Pacific Division
- Vegas Golden Knights – 116 points
- San Jose Sharks – 101 points
- Calgary Flames – 97 points
- Los Angeles Kings – 95 points
- Anaheim Ducks – 93 points
- Edmonton Oilers – 79 points
- Vancouver Canucks – 74 points
- Arizona Coyotes – 54 points
Western Conference First Round Playoff Match-ups:
#1P Vegas vs. #2W Colorado
#1C Nashville vs. #1W Dallas
#2C Winnipeg vs. #3C St. Louis
#2P San Jose vs. #3P Calgary
The biggest takeaway from this current outlook? It won’t take 100 points to be a playoff team this year, but the vast number of mediocre teams opens the door for some last-minute playoff drama. The Islanders, Rangers, Wild, and Kings all project to be just one win outside of a playoff berth. These races could come down to the wire. It should be a fun second half.
Which Teams Would Have Flexibility In Another Expansion Draft?
Midway-through the 2017-18 NHL season, it is nearly impossible to predict what rosters could look like following the 2019-20 season, more than two years away. Trades, free agency, and much more shape teams often in ways that no one sees coming. With that said, it seems like another Expansion Draft is coming to add the league’s 32nd team, the Seattle __________, and the timeline most are suggesting is a June 2020 draft date. Like it or not, the general managers of the other 31 NHL need to be keeping that in the back of their mind with each move they make over the next two seasons.
However, it could be that some have already made decisions that could impact their roster protection plans more than two years from now. The structure of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft will the remain the same, allowing for teams to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie from being selected. The one caveat that threw more than a few teams for a loop last June was that all players with No-Movement Clauses (NMC) in their contracts had to be protected, unless the players voluntarily chose to wave them i.e. Marc-Andre Fleury. So, with that one aspect of the expansion process in mind, it is possible to look ahead at certain long-term contracts to see, assuming those players don’t waive them ahead of time, who could be locked in for protection in 2020 or which teams will have more flexibility without any such players:
Total Flexibility
Arizona Coyotes (0) – The only NMC players on the Coyotes are defensemen Alex Goligoski and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Hjalmarsson will be a free agent in the summer of the projected Expansion Draft and Goligoski’s clause will have shifted to a Modified No-Trade Clause. Arizona will likely have complete flexibility.
Buffalo Sabres (0) – Kyle Okposo‘s NMC expires after this season and Jason Pominville‘s contract expires after next season. Buffalo won’t have any restrictions on their protection scheme as of now.
Calgary Flames (0) – There is no one on the roster with a NMC and no one that will predictably get one by the end of the 2019-20 season. Kudos to GM Brad Treliving.
Los Angeles Kings (0) – Kings’ captain Anze Kopitar in their only NMC player right now and even his clause will have shifted to No-Trade by 2020. L.A. is free and clear.
Nashville Predators (0) – GM David Poile does not seem to be a fan of NMC’s in his recent long-term deals and in the new NHL expansion era, that’s a good thing.
New Jersey Devils (0) – see Calgary Flames
New York Islanders (0) – The Andrew Ladd and Johnny Boychuk contracts already look bad for the Isles. They would be much worse if their NMC’s didn’t expire soon. With John Tavares and Josh Bailey both candidates for NMC’s should they re-sign in New York and a defense that needs a re-haul, the Islanders could lose some flexibility, but they should be fine.
Toronto Maple Leafs (0) – The Leafs have no NMC players under contract beyond 2019-20 right now. That could easily change with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in need of extensions, but Toronto should still be in a good spot. After all, those are players that would protected regardless.
Vancouver Canucks (0) – Loui Eriksson‘s NMC shifts to a No-Trade Clause following this season and will be an afterthought by 2020. It’s fortunate, as Eriksson’s tenure in Vancouver has not gone according to plan.
Vegas Golden Knights (0) – The Golden Knights didn’t sign or trade for any players with NMC’s and only drafted two – Marc-Andre Fleury and David Clarkson – who already had them and they both expire before the Knights would be set to become the NHL’s second-newest team. With that said, the current Knights’ roster will see a lot of turnover in the next two years and they may struggle to avoid NMC’s completely.
Washington Capitals (0) – GM Brian MacLellan has avoided NMC’s in any of his recent mega-deals. If he can do it again this summer in his attempt to re-sign (or replace) John Carlson, then the Caps will be in good shape for another round of expansion drafting.
Winnipeg Jets (0) – The NMC in Bryan Little‘s contract will both kick in and expire between now and June 2020. The Jets should be left with a fully flexible lineup.
Some Flexibility
Boston Bruins (2) – There’s little concern that Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron will still be playing at a high level in two years. Their NMC’s should be a non-factor for Boston. If David Krejci and, especially, David Backes still had their NMC’s too at that time, there would be a real logjam up front. However, both will have shifted to Modified No-Trade Clauses by then, potentially saving the Bruins from making tough decisions about their many talented young forwards.
Carolina Hurricanes (1) – As important a job as he’s had in Carolina, Jordan Staal will never be the star forward that finally puts them over the top. If his NMC causes a problem in 2020, he could easily be traded to a contender to play a complementary role. The Hurricanes need to retain as many promising young forward assets as they can in hopes of one day finding that true superstar.
Colorado Avalanche (1) – There are mixed opinions on Erik Johnson, but he has a leadership role for the Avalanche and will be key in grooming a strong crop of up-and-coming defensive prospects. The Avs won’t lose sleep about having to protect him in expansion, especially if he’s still one of their top-pairing guys in two years.
Columbus Blue Jackets (1) – The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest losers in the most recent Expansion Draft. They might be smart to sell off Nick Foligno if there’s any risk that history repeats itself.
Dallas Stars (3) – Call it optimism about his play in his first season in Dallas, but the NMC for Alexander Radulov doesn’t seem like it will be a major issue even after a couple more years. Of course, Jamie Benn‘s NMC will also be a non-factor. Ben Bishop on the other hand may not be the goalie the Stars would prefer to keep in two years. As of now, there’s no immediate competition though.
Detroit Red Wings (1) – Detroit only has one NMC player who will still be under contract in 2020-21 (and another season after that), but it’s Frans Nielsen, who has been a major disappointment for the team since coming over from the New York Islanders. He could throw a wrench in their plans if he continues his downward trend over the next two seasons.
Minnesota Wild (2) – The Ryan Suter and Zach Parise mega-deals will still be making an impact in 2020, but with most of the core locked up throughout that season and no other NMC contract likely on their way, Minnesota should be okay in the Expansion Draft.
Montreal Canadiens (2) – Even if the Canadiens continue to struggle through two more seasons, there will be few Habs fans that blame superstar goalie Carey Price. His NMC won’t be an issue because the team would never dream of leaving him exposed. Jeff Petry on the other hand could be a problem. Luckily (?), it doesn’t look like Montreal will have many defenders worth protecting even in the next couple of seasons.
Ottawa Senators (2) – Some things never change. The NMC’s for Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf were problems for the Senators in this past Expansion Draft and they’ll likely be problems again next time around. If Phaneuf is traded between now and then, that alleviates some concern for Ottawa. Good luck moving the Ryan contract though.
Philadelphia Flyers (1) – Only Claude Giroux has and predictably will have an NMC come June 2020. That’s a pretty safe situation for Philly.
San Jose Sharks (1) – Marc-Edouard Vlasic plays a confident, stay-at-home defensive game that often ages nicely. He looks to be the only NMC in San Jose in 2020, which shouldn’t cause a stir.
St. Louis Blues (1) – Patrik Berglund will be on the wrong side of 30 and still under a NMC when the potential 2020 draft rolls around, but with the rest of their core signed long-term without NMC’s, the Blues should be pretty safe.
Tampa Bay Lightning (2) – Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman may be the two safest NMC contracts in the NHL. Fortunately, Ryan Callahan‘s otherwise-problematic NMC expires just prior to projected 2020 Expansion Draft.
Little Flexibility
Anaheim Ducks (3) – Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler will all be 35+ and still be NMC-protected in 2020. That’s a large chunk of your protected forwards to dedicate to players in the twilight of their careers. Some up-and-coming young talent could leave Anaheim again in this next Expansion Draft a la Shea Theodore.
Chicago Blackhawks (4) – The downside to signing all of your core players to long contracts with NMC’s could hit the Blackhawks hard in the next Expansion Draft. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will be well past 30 and Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith will be in their mid-to-late 30’s during the 2020-21 season, but all four will need to be protected ahead of that season, which could force other promising younger players out of Chicago’s protection scheme. At least they’ll narrowly avoid having an issue in net with Corey Crawford‘s contract expiring prior.
Edmonton Oilers (2) – Milan Lucic and Kris Russell. Each two years older than they are now. Those aren’t exactly players that a team wants to be forced to keep. It’s foreseeable that one or both could have a negative impact on the team’s protection plan.
Florida Panthers (3) – The Panthers probably won’t mind having three players locked up come Expansion 2.0. The team knew what they were doing when they signed Keith Yandle long-term. Even in his mid-30’s, Yandle will be a reliable player and a leader for the young Florida defensive core. Sure, they considered asking him to waive his NMC this past June, but they never actually did. Yandle won’t be a major issue in two years unless his play falls off considerably. There should be no concern whatsoever over Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, whose NMC’s kick in later on in their contracts. The same might not be true about Evgeni Dadonov, whose been somewhat underwhelming so far in Florida, but luckily his contract runs out just prior the probable draft date.
New York Rangers (4) – Although they will have near total control over their forwards, outside of Mika Zibanejad, the Rangers could be in a tough position with their protection schemes in net and on the blue line in 2020. Then-38-year-old Henrik Lundqvist will require protection, as will underachieving defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Marc Staal. New York is apparently readying themselves for somewhat of a rebuild, which could mean some of those players are traded beforehand. Otherwise New York could face quite the dilemma.
Pittsburgh Penguins (4) – It seems unlikely, even years from now and in their mid-30’s, that the NMC’s for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Phil Kessel would cause trouble for the Penguins. Injury-prone defenseman Kris Letang could be different though. Being forced to protect him after another two seasons of hard minutes could be difficult to swallow. Pittsburgh also has some work to do filling out the forward corps between now and 2020. GM Jim Rutherford would be well-served to avoid acquiring or handing out any further NMC’s.
Minor Transactions: 01/29/18
As January comes to a close, the NHL resumes a normal schedule and teams across the league try to make a push for the playoffs. The trade deadline, which comes in just a few weeks will bring new addresses for some of the very best players, while along the way many minor moves will be made to help the edges of a roster. We’ll keep track of all the day’s minor transactions right here.
- The Columbus Blue Jackets have recalled Joonas Korpisalo, Dean Kukan, Markus Hannikainen and Zac Dalpe from the minor leagues, sending Jeff Zatkoff and Andre Benoit back down. These moves were expected, although it is interesting that Jordan Schroeder was left in the AHL. The Blue Jackets will take on Minnesota tomorrow night.
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have recalled Jean-Sebastien Dea as expected, bringing the 23-year old forward back up for another chance with the NHL club. Dea has one goal in four games this season, and will look to get back into the lineup when the Penguins host the San Jose Sharks tomorrow night.
- Erik Burgdoerfer, Colin White and Chris DiDomenico are all back with the Ottawa Senators, and they’ve moved Gabriel Dumont to injured reserve to clear room.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have recalled just Kasperi Kapanen, which lends credence to the idea that Morgan Rielly and Nikita Zaitsev will return soon. The Maple Leafs currently have just six healthy defensemen, and had previously recalled Rinat Valiev to serve as the extra. If that’s not done by tomorrow, you can bet one of the injured players will be back in the lineup.
- Joel Eriksson Ek is back with the Minnesota Wild, and will try to make a bigger impact in the second half. The 21-year old forward has just seven points this season in 42 games and hasn’t been the Calder Trophy nominee many expected.
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have brought Louis Domingue back up after giving him a chance to stay fresh during the break. Domingue has seemingly solved the Lightning backup goalie issue with his strong play since coming over from Arizona, recording a .928 save percentage in his two starts.
- The Winnipeg Jets have flipped goaltenders, recalling Eric Comrie and sending Jamie Phillips to the Manitoba Moose. Interestingly it wasn’t Michael Hutchinson who got the call, as he continues to dominate the AHL. Steve Mason remains sidelined by concussion symptoms, unclear of when he’ll return.
- The Dallas Stars have recalled Jason Dickinson, Dillon Heatherington and Julius Honka as expected. Honka and Heatherington will continue to try and prove that they deserve a full-time role on the blue line while Marc Methot deals with injury.
- Andrew Mangiapane and Ryan Lomberg are back with the Calgary Flames, though Marek Hrvik, who was sent down along with them prior to the break was not recalled. Hrivik will likely have to wait for another opportunity to get back onto the NHL club.
- Ian McCoshen, Samuel Montembeault and Maxim Mamin are all on their way back to the Florida Panthers as expected, and will try to show that they deserve to be considered part of the future for the team. The Panthers find themselves well out of a playoff spot heading into the second half and would need an impressive run to get back into the picture.
- The Boston Bruins have recalled Anders Bjork under emergency conditions, as they deal with Brad Marchand‘s suspension. The conditions also mean that someone is dealing with an injury, though it’s not clear who exactly that is in regards to the call up.
- A pair of players are on their way down to Brooklyn from Bridgeport, as the Islanders have called up Tanner Fritz and Ross Johnston from the AHL.
All-Star Skills Competition Assignments Released
With the All-Star game one day away, many NHL fans often get more excited for the 2018 GEICO NHL All-Star Skills Competition, which will be tonight. The NHL released the list of who will be participating in each of the six competitions with the winner of each receiving $25K.
Enterprise NHL Fastest Skater – Each skater is timed for one full lap around the rink.
Brayden Point (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Zach Werenski (Columbus Blue Jackets)
Rickard Rakell (Anaheim Ducks)
Noah Hanifin (Carolina Hurricanes)
Josh Bailey (New York Islanders)
Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche)
Jack Eichel (Buffalo Sabres)
Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers)
Dunkin Donuts NHL Passing Challenge – Requires three skills over one round, including Target Passing (making four passes to a target that light up randomly), Give-and-Go (must complete four successful passes through a course in the neutral zone) and Mini Nets (must complete four passes over barricades and into mini-nets).
Nikita Kucherov (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Claude Giroux (Philadelphia Flyers)
Brayden Schenn (St. Louis Blues)
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (Arizona Coyotes)
Eric Staal (Minnesota Wild)
Alex Pietrangelo (St. Louis Blues)
Kris Letang (Pittsburgh Penguins)
Drew Doughty (Los Angeles Kings)
GEICO NHL Save Streak – Goalies attempt to win by making the most consecutive saves against an opposing division on a minimum of nine shots.
Henrik Lundqvist (New York Rangers) vs. Central Division
Connor Hellebuyck (Vancouver Canucks) vs. Pacific Division
Pekka Rinne (Nashville Predators) vs. Metropolitan Division
Marc-Andre Fleury (Vegas Golden Knights) vs. Atlantic Division
Andrei Vasilevskiy (Tampa Bay Lightning) vs. Central Division
Gatorade NHL Puck Control Relay – A timed event that involves three skills, including Stickhandling (where a skater must control a puck through a series of eight pucks in a straight line), Cone Control (where a skater controls a puck through a series of eight cones in a zig-zag formation) and Gates (where a skater must shoot or choose to guide the puck through a lighted rung of a gate).
Johnny Gaudreau (Calgary Flames)
Aleksander Barkov (Florida Panthers)
Erik Karlsson (Ottawa Senators)
John Tavares (New York Islanders)
Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers)
Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs)
Tyler Seguin (Dallas Stars)
Patrick Kane (Chicago Blackhawks)
PPG NHL Hardest Shot – Over two rounds, each player will attempt two shots measured in miles per hour with the highest speed recorded.
John Klingberg (Dallas Stars)
Alex Ovechkin (Washington Capitals)
P.K. Subban (Nashville Predators)
Brent Burns (San Jose Sharks)
Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Honda NHL Shooting Accuracy – A timed event in which a skater is positioned 25 feet behind the goal line and must shoot at five LED targets in the goal. A target will light up and the players has three seconds to hit it.
Brian Boyle (New Jersey Devils)
Blake Wheeler (Winnipeg Jets)
James Neal (Vegas Golden Knights)
Brock Boeser (Vancouver Canucks)
Brad Marchand (Boston Bruins)
Anze Kopitar (Los Angeles Kings)
Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins)
Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Stone Expected To Return Tuesday; New Arena Likely Won't Open Until 2022
- The Senators are hoping to have winger Mark Stone back on Tuesday, their first game following the All-Star break, notes Postmedia’s Ken Warren. He has missed the last three games due to a knee injury. The 25-year-old is Ottawa’s leading point-getter with 18-26-44 in 44 games so far this season and is one of the few players believed to be untouchable for the Sens in trade talks.
- Also from Ottawa, although they have reached a preliminary agreement on a new downtown arena, Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch cautions that it may take until the 2022-23 season if not longer before the arena is actually built and ready for use. It will still be another year or two before everything is finalized for the site to start being cleared and the arena being built so while brighter days appear to be on the horizon for the Senators in terms of a new place to play, they will still be waiting a while before they can move in.
Ottawa Senators Claim Magnus Paajarvi
The Ottawa Senators have claimed Magnus Paajarvi off waivers from the St. Louis Blues. The 26-year old forward was always a good candidate to be claimed, and he’ll now try to take the next step in his career in the Canadian capital.
With Jaden Schwartz returning from injury for the Blues, the team had to free up a roster spot and Paajarvi drew the short straw. The bottom-six forward played in 44 games for the Blues this season, recording just four points. That stat line isn’t out of the ordinary for Paajarvi, who came into the league with impressive offensive potential but has registered just 97 points through 352 games. Expected to be a force around the net and able to beat defensemen one-on-one with his speed, Paajarvi instead settled into a defensive and energy role first in Edmonton and then St. Louis.
He’s never shown much creativity in the offensive zone, but for Ottawa a claim of Paajarvi gives them another lottery ticket down the stretch. As we’ve seen first hand in Vegas this season, sometimes a change of scenery can spark a new level of production in players, something Ottawa will certainly hope for. The Senators are for all intents and purposes out of the playoff race already, and can afford to give some playing time to a former top draft selection.
Earning just $800K this season, Paajarvi is actually scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer. While he’ll certainly draw some interest from around the league as a depth player, a good second half could secure him even more. The Senators, expected to be sellers at the deadline, pick up a free asset that they could even flip if his production improves at all, or at least use him to fill in the gaps by any outgoing forwards.
Ottawa Reaches Preliminary Agreement To Build New Downtown Arena
The Ottawa Senators have been trying for years to secure a downtown arena, and took a very positive step forward today. The National Capital Commission has reached a preliminary agreement with the RendezVous group led by Senators’ owner Eugene Melnyk, to develop the LeBreton Flats area including a new arena. The development will be completed in two phases, the first of which will include the a building for the Senators to move downtown. The major agreement is not in place yet, and will continue to be negotiated over the next 12-18 months. While that leaves wiggle room for the deal to collapse, this is a huge step forward for the Senators organization.
Even without the disappointing results of the 2017-18 season, the Senators have had a tumultuous recent history. Last year during a playoff run that went all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals, the team had trouble filling their current home, the Canadian Tire Centre, which is located outside of the city center and is difficult for many fans to reach. That was followed by Melnyk’s comments just prior to the team’s outdoor game this year, where the owner hinted at potential salary slashing measures if the fans wouldn’t increase their support of the team. Those comments hung over the head of GM Pierre Dorion, who is under immense pressure to sign his superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson before he reaches free agency in the summer of 2019. Karlsson was clear that he wouldn’t take a so-called “hometown discount” to stay with the Senators and expects to be paid his market value—a number that is likely in excess of $10MM per season.
While a downtown arena by no means fixes every problem the Senators have, the idea of a new home could catapult them into a different financial tier among NHL clubs. With easier access and a downtown presence, fan support should increase along with ticket sales and merchandising. While Ottawa is not likely ever going to become the brand powerhouses of Toronto or Montreal, moving downtown certainly affords them some level of security. After all, it was NHL commissioner Gary Bettman himself who proclaimed a downtown arena as “vitally important” to the Senators’ long-term future in Ottawa.