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Is Houston A Viable NHL Hockey Market?

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When the NHL began discussing expansion a few years ago, the plan was never to add one team. No owner or league executive stood up and said “31 is the perfect number!” The idea has always been to bring in two more teams to bring the total to 32, the same number that the National Football League has managed since 2002. So whether you are of the opinion that the Arizona Coyotes, Carolina Hurricanes, or New York Islanders need to re-locate or not, the fact of the matter is that the NHL will welcome a new city regardless in the near future.

The overwhelming opinion seems to be that Seattle, Washington is next in line to follow Las Vegas. The city is full of die-hard sports fans who cheer vehemently for the Seahawks, Mariners, and Sounders and have been clamoring for a basketball team since the SuperSonics left. They also show up to watch junior hockey, as the WHL’s Seattle Thunderbirds finished in the top half of attendance in 2016-17. Millionaire Chris Hansen has been pushing hard for support to build a new arena with plans to bring back the NBA and bring in the NHL, while Seattle mayor Ed Murray has been negotiating with the NHL on the city’s behalf as well.

Seattle could very well be the 32nd NHL team. However, some hockey purists would like to see the league go back to the small market of Quebec City and revive the Nordiques. Others don’t mind the Seattle plans, but would rather a team go about 150 miles south to Portland, Oregon, where the WHL’s Portland Winterhawks outdraw the Seattle Thunderbirds. Some stand up for places like Kansas City, Missouri, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and Hartford, Connecticut. You may even hear a few in favor of going back to Atlanta already. What you don’t hear much of though is talk about Houston, Texas. That is until now.

Last month, Leslie Alexander, the owner of the NBA’s Houston Rockets and the Toyota Center, announced that he would be selling the team. While this may simply seem like the NBA’s business on its face, it could have big implications for the NHL. Alexander had attempted to purchase the Edmonton Oilers back in 1998 with a plan to move them to Houston. However, the league turned the offer down, opting instead to keep one of it’s most well-known franchises in Canada where it belonged. Alexander held a grudge not only against the NHL, but against hockey. He all but forced the AHL’s Houston Aeros, beloved by the local fan base, out of the city by charging unreasonable rent at the Toyota Center. The Minnesota Wild had to move their part-owned affiliate to Iowa, where they remain today. With the Aeros gone, the city’s interest in hockey seemingly disappeared and with Alexander remaining in charge of the Rockets and Toyota Center, there was little hope of the NHL or AHL ever returning.

With Alexander selling the Rockets, and likely his stake in the Toyota Center as well, those hopes are alive once again. But is Houston interested in having an NHL team? Is the NHL interested in going to Houston? It certainly makes some sense on paper. Houston is the fifth largest city in the United States – behind only New York, L.A., Chicago, and nearby Dallas – and has only seen its population grow in recent years. It is also a major three-sport city. The Rockets have always been very successful, recently the MLB’s Astros have righted the ship and boast a strong team, and the NFL’s Texans, still the league’s newest team dating back to 2002, are wildly popular. With that success comes both a strong fan base and a industry that is comfortable with throwing lots of money into athletic sponsorship. Financially, Houston would seem to be as good a fit as any. They also have a suitable arena, which Seattle does not, and a much greater population and pro sports history than any of Quebec City, Portland, Milwaukee, or Hartford.

The NHL sought expansion bids three years ago and accepted just one: Bill Foley’s Las Vegas bid. Many were surprised that Seattle and Quebec City among other could not place a suitable bid. If that process was to occur again, after the Rockets deal is done, would the new owner or another interested Texan place a bid? Or would a perceived lack of interest in the NHL prevent it from happening, yet another surprise in the NHL bidding process? There is still plenty of uncertainty surrounding the situation, but NHL Expansion is not over yet and now, for the first time in years, Houston is at least back in the conversation.

Snapshots: Alexander Nylander, Jon Gillies, Max Talbot

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19-year old winger Alexander Nylander may get his shot in Buffalo this season, according to Ian McLaren of the Score, who spoke with Nylander’s Swedish coach. Nylander was selected 8th overall in last year’s draft, and had a strong season in the AHL with Rochester. He saw action in 4 games for the Sabres, but tallied only one assist. He theoretically has the option to return to the Swedish Hockey League, for AIK, but there has been no indication he will do so. Nylander will have his work cut out for him if he hopes to crack the roster, however. The Sabres filled out their forward depth relatively well this off-season, adding Jason Pominville (right-winger) via trade and Jacob Josefson (right-winger) via free agency. He could likely find a home on the fourth-line, but he would likely benefit from more seasoning if he can’t force a decision outright. His older brother, William Nylander, did need parts of two seasons with the Marlies before he stuck with the Leafs. Alex Nylander’s dynamic offensive skillset is badly needed in Buffalo this season, however, especially when one considers the lean defense they will be trotting out.

  • When Flames’ goalie Jon Gillies was signed to a two-way contract a few weeks ago, many wondered how much that would impact the team’s future plans in net. Gillies had a solid win in his first NHL start last season, but struggled slightly in Stockton. The 6’6 goalie is a third-round pick from 2012, but was solid in Providence and has shown flashes of brilliance at only 23. Gillies will need to string together a solid performance at the AHL level and hope for either Mike Smith or Eddie Lack to falter or fall to injury, as the two acquisitions by GM Brad Treliving put him in an unenviable position. The possibility of a goaltending carousel in Calgary seems more possible than many are willing to admit, especially if Gillies or Tyler Parsons push the issue from the minors with stellar performance. This will only be Gillies’ second pro season, after all, and he has the talent to make things interesting.
  • With the certainty of NHL non-participation in the 2018 Olympics, it opens quite a few doors for players who have left the league for Europe or elsewhere. “Busts” and “has-beens” could make up a large portion of the U.S. and Canadian rosters, it seems. Today in Sochi, numerous ex-NHLers displayed their skills in hopes of impressing those who will choose the 2018 Olympic roster. A miniature tournament is essentially the beginning of the audition to be considered for the selection process. Canada faced off against Russia, and the teams will have friendly contests against one another later in August. According to Tim Wharnsby of CBS Sports, some of those hopefuls for Canada include Max Talbot, Gilbert Brule, and Rob Klinkhammer. Talbot was a gritty winger who clutched two goals against Detroit in Game 7 of the 2009 Stanley Cup Finals for Pittsburgh. Brule is a former top pick of CBJ who floated from team to team without much success, and Klinkhammer was a fringe bottom-sixer who never truly found a home. Many players of this ilk could claim roster spots, and fans of the sport may have some names from the past resurface to prominence as we approach Pyeongchang.

Blue Jackets Look To Fill Center Hole

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When center William Karlsson was sacrificed to the Vegas Golden Knights, the Blue Jackets lost a potent two-way tool up the middle. For a team who scores as much by committee as Columbus did last season, the team was bound to lose a valuable roster player. Although he only scored 6 goals and 25 points, he logged tough minutes against tough competition. It should be noted that, for all his defensive starts (62%), his advanced stats have been persistently sub-par. While Karlsson easily passed the eye test, his Corsi For was a lousy 43% in 2016-17, and that isn’t far from his career average. It may be a situation where analytics don’t tell the entire story, but Karlsson was actually trending backwards last season when looking at relative possession. Regardless, someone will need to step up internally to fill that roster void at the the 3rd line center position, as noted in an article by Mark Scheig of the Hockey Writers.

Scheig of course notes the work of rookie Lukas Sedlak, who performed admirably in his fourth-line duties. Sedlak could be ready to step up, but a lot will depend on how he performs in camp. He showed a bit of offensive touch, with 7 goals in 62 NHL contests, and marginal point totals in his Junior days. However, Sedlak was injured down the stretch and will need to re-assert himself into the lineup. He won’t be nearly as sheltered as he was last season, either. Notably, he’ll be competing against Pierre-Luc Dubois, the #3 pick from last year’s draft. Dubois finished out his last year in the QJMHL with the Blanville-Boisbriand Armada after being traded min-season. In an injury shortened campaign, he only posted 55 points in 48 games, a sharp step down from his 99-point performance in 62 games during his draft year. Dubois arguably regressed more than any other 2016 top-10 pick, and it might be unreasonable to expect him to dominate in camp. Dubois still has a heavy shot, solid hockey IQ and uses his size effectively, but consistency at the NHL level may be a difficult ask from a 19 year old returning from a down year.

Internally, other players can slot to the position. Scheig mentions that Boone Jenner can fill in when needed, but it’s no permanent solution. Going the free agency route at this late stage seems rather unlikely, as well. That really leaves coach John Tortorella in a tough position if Dubois fails to make an impact and Sedlak remains what he is. The team does have a glut of defensive prospects, but considering that they went out of their way to protect them from Vegas’ expansion sights, they may not be willing to part with a major piece just yet. The Blue Jackets may simply need to ride out some of the season with a hole in their top-nine if training camp doesn’t crown a clear replacement for Karlsson. Unlike many of the Vegas selections, this one could impact a team’s makeup noticeably. In an incredibly competitive Metropolitan division, a solitary step back could mean the difference between eyeing a division title or fighting for a wild card berth. Still, after adding the dynamic Artemi Panarin this off-season and watching a talented young defense gain valuable playoff experience, Jackets’ fans will likely not be overly concerned just yet.

Is Andrei Svechnikov The Next Generational Prospect?

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It’s never too far to look ahead to the draft and as the offseason enters the dog days of summer, Russian prospect Andrei Svechnikov is already projecting to be the top pick in the 2018 NHL draft. The question, before the season even begins, is if Svechnikov is a generational talent in the mold of Connor McDavid, or Auston Matthews. Taken first overall in the CHL Import Draft by the Barrie Colts, the upcoming season will reveal if Svechnikov is the high end prospect many believe he’s developing into. Svechnikov will sign with the Colts prior to training camp, and could even push the words “generational” into the conversation.

Svechnikov’s older brother Evgeny plays in the Detroit Red Wings system and though an exciting prospect Wings fans are waiting to see, Andrei looks to be even better. MLive’s Mark Opfermann penned a piece on Svechnikov back in March when the ’18 class was in the shadow of the soon-to-be-drafted ’17 class. Opfermann wrote this about him:

“For his age, and you don’t even have to look at his age, let’s just say he’s a first-year player in the league, whatever age he is,” Muskegon Lumberjacks coach John LaFontaine said. “He doesn’t get pushed off the puck, he outmuscles guys to the net, his shot is deceptive and his ability to create plays is high end no matter what level you’re playing at. There’s no question, if he was a ’99 (birth year) and on the list this year, they’d be talking about him this year.”

The Hockey News’ Daniel Nugent-Bowman wrote back in December that Svechnikov has the potential to be the “next big thing” out of Russia. The big bodied, goal scorer has excelled on both the world stage and the amateur stage, taking USHL Rookie of the Year honors with Muskegon–playing in the league primarily as a 16-year-old. It’s expected that he’ll take the OHL by storm, cementing his status as the #1 overall pick.

But does it make him generational?

If looking strictly at points, McDavid put up 120 the year he was drafted by the Oilers first overall. Matthews, while playing for ZSC had 46 points in 36 games, but that was also in a professional league. Patrik Laine and Jack Eichel have put up elite numbers in the NHL, and also showed the same flash while playing prior to the NHL.

Jan 1, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) controls the puck against the Detroit Red Wings during the Centennial Classic ice hockey game at BMO Field. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Svechnikov tore up the USHL with 58 points in just 48 games, with 29 of those points being goals. Measuring him against McDavid in the OHL at the same age, (albeit a much different measuring stick), McDavid had 99 points in 56 games, though he did spend the 2012-13 season with the Otters as well–turning 16 during the middle of that season. McDavid also showed a high IQ on the ice from a very early age and also drew comparisons to Crosby and Gretzky as well.

Svechnikov, from scouts, to coaches, to teammates, and backed by statistics, looks like the real deal. A season with Barrie will be the best indicator of whether or not he’s generational. Barring significant injury, Svechnikov is shaping up to be a prize for the team that selects him.

Evening Snapshots: Babcock, Matthews, Bridge Deals

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Toronto Maple Leafs coach Mike Babcock praised the performance of Auston Matthews, but believes there’s always room for improvement writes NHL.com’s Adam Kimelman. Matthews, who registered 40 goals and 69 points en route to a playoff appearance and Calder Award, will be expected to build on his performance last season as the Leafs look to take the next step in their rebuild. Babcock says that he isn’t one to “measure by points” but instead looks at how they “play” and “compete.” The young Leafs took a huge step forward, pushing the “painful rebuild” that Babcock once called it into a quicker ascent. But in true Babcockian form, he sprinkles praise while expecting more:

Obviously we have good young players,” Babcock said. “We have a lot of them. It’s kind of a group that’s growing up together. But it’s one year and one year doesn’t make a career. You have to do it again and again and again. We’re excited about our opportunities.

  • Puck Daddy’s Ryan Lambert writes about how Ryan Johansen’s deal certainly challenges the old guard way of thinking when it comes to bridge contracts. Rewarding Johansen with an eight-year deal instead of a one-two year contract.  Lambert points out that going with the longer deal instead of a bridge and then the long deal seems like the better bet. The logic here would be getting the player through his prime instead of playing a “wait and see” game and then locking him up long after his prime has expired. There are a litany of examples of this in the NHL, but in an age of cost certainty and public outcry at what’s deemed a bad deal, general managers are often in a tight spot when it comes to choosing a bridge deal or a long-term contract.

Panthers Notes: Tippett, Tallon

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Breathe easy, Panthers fans. Tenth overall pick Owen Tippett was hit hard (gif via Twitter) during today’s game against the United States during the World Junior Summer Showcase. NHL.com’s Mike Morreale tweeted that it didn’t look good after the hit, but Tippett was able to leave the ice under his own power. Morreale tweeted later that he observed Tippett with his teammates, going through exercises and appearing just fine.  An injury scare for the high scoring winger would have been a difficult blow for Florida. Tippett has a chance to make the roster right out of training camp, and if the skills transfer over, can be a major contributor in the scoring column. The Sun-Sentinel’s Harvey Fialkov wrote about how general manager Dale Tallon believes Tippett to have the makeup of a player who is mature beyond his years. Today’s hit appears to be just a minor incident, and one that shouldn’t stunt Tippett’s chance at making the NHL roster.

  • Tallon was featured in an Athletic article by Scott Powers, who wrote how Tallon holds a special place in his heart for Chicago. Tallon was responsible for the bulk of the drafting and free agent signings that turned the Blackhawks into a model franchise after being a league doormat for nearly a decade. Powers asked Tallon about his thoughts on the Panthers offseason, and he responded as such:

    We had to rework it a little bit. We’re going younger, we’re going faster. We like what we’ve done. We’ve gotten quicker and faster, a little more depth. We added some grit, we added some speed and we added some skill. We got a lot of good young players that we still have coming in our organization that we really like, and we have a real strong core of young players that were injured last year. I think our team is going to be faster and younger and play with a little more energy than we did last year. The new coaches to our coaching staff are really good. I’m excited to work with them and get rolling here.

Tallon admitted that he wasn’t happy about last season and that it was a difficult decision not bringing Jaromir Jagr back, noting that he was great for leadership and exemplifying a strong work ethic. But like many executives in the NHL, Tallon felt it was time to get younger and faster.

 

 

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Detroit Red Wings

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total Cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes. 

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figure were taken from CapFriendly.

Detroit Red Wings
Projected Cap Hit:  $78,021,212 (Over by $3,021,212)

Entry Level Deals: 

Dylan Larkin (1 year remaining/$925K)
Anthony Mantha (1 year remaining/$863,333)

Things will get interesting when the Wings sit down to negotiate with both Larkin and Mantha following the 2017-18 season. Both are considered the foundation that the Red Wings will build on for the future, but Larkin saw regression after a torrid rookie campaign in 2015-16. Larkin, who moved back to his native center position after spending the season at wing during his first season, is expected to bounce back. Mantha who scored at a high clip when given the ice time, will command a higher payout should his scoring continue. Mantha could be a 30-goal scorer in the league if the Red Wings allow him to play the role of goal scorer instead of two-way forward. Regardless, both will see a significant bump and this will only tighten things further.

1 Year Remaining

Mike Green ($6MM AAV)
Petr Mrazek ($4MM AAV)
Riley Sheahan ($2.08MM AAV)
Tyler Bertuzzi ($661K AAV)
Ryan Sproul ($625K AAV)
Jared Coreau ($613K AAV)

The deals falling off after the current season will account for a good chunk of change that will allow for Larkin and Mantha to be re-signed with ease. Additionally, some of these contracts, should Detroit struggle again as they’re widely expected to, could net some prospects or draft picks. Green is the likeliest candidate to be spun off while Sheahan is expected to bounce back after an offensive challenging season that saw him left off the goal sheet until the final game of the season.

Sproul will either be re-signed to a minor deal or left to go as other defensemen have rocketed up the prospect list. His suspect defense takes away from his roaring slap shot, which was counted on to one day sustain the Red Wings powerplay. Bertuzzi should see time with the big club, but with Witkowski being a hybrid defenseman/forward, he may be stuck in Grand Rapids as the tie always goes to the veteran in Detroit.

Mrazek is an odd case. Bemoaned for a bad attitude coupled with a below average season, it can’t be expected that unless he puts up Vezina like numbers or dramatically changes his standing with the team that he’ll be back. Though he could be dealt, teams have made it clear they’re not interested, which makes it likely both teams walks away at the end of the term. Coreau will likely see time like he did last season when either Mrazek or Howard were injured.

Apr 9, 2017; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Red Wings goalie <a rel=

2 Years Remaining

Jimmy Howard ($5.29MM AAV)
Niklas Kronwall ($4.75MM AAV)
Gustav Nyquist ($4.75MM AAV)
Xavier Ouellet ($1.25MM AAV)
Nick Jensen ($812.5K AAV)
Luke Witkowski ($750K AAV)

Howard was expected to be dealt or drafted in the expansion draft until stories of Mrazek surfaced. Instead, Howard is now seen as the #1 goalie in Detroit. The contract itself, however, has been a bust as Howard has either not been healthy or inconsistent during the duration of the deal. It’s very likely that Kronwall ends up on the LTIR as he is literally skating on one knee. His mobility, and puck moving ability has deteriorated quickly, but the Red Wings still insist on giving him minutes on the power play. Should he not end up on the LTIR, he will most likely see his minutes decrease, which only makes his contract look worse.

Nyquist is a curious story as he was paid to score goals, but has still been very productive on the ice, being a boon for teammates in terms of setting up scoring chances. Witkowski was added for “grit” at a relatively cheap price.

The Red Wings cap issues began with some of these deals–offering money for players who didn’t exactly stay consistent with expectations. Things get considerably worse as years were added.

3 or More Years

Jonathan Ericsson ($4.25MM AAV – 3 years remaining)
Trevor Daley ($3.167MM AAV – 3 years remaining)
Henrik Zetterberg ($6.08MM AAV – 4 years remaining)
Tomas Tatar ($5.3MM AAV – 4 years remaining)
Darren Helm (3.85MM AAV – 4 years remaining)
Luke Glendening ($1.8MM AAV – 4 years remaining)
Frans Nielsen ($5.25MM AAV – 5 years remaining)
Danny DeKeyser ($5MM AAV – 5 years remaining)
Justin Abdelkader ($4.25MM AAV – 6 years remaining)

Mar 24, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Red Wings center <a rel=

Here’s where the Red Wings have run into problems. The vast majority of players owed the bulk of dollars and years are not living up to expectations or are regressing with age. Zetterberg will be owed a sizable contract for another four years, and Father Time will slow him from his great season last year. Nielsen is also on the books for awhile, and is nearing his mid-30’s which doesn’t bode well for his numbers or the team’s overall performance.

But Ericsson, Glendening, Helm, DeKeyser, and Abdelkader have head scratching deals that could cripple Detroit for years to come. None of the aforementioned are top tier players, and Helm, Glendening, and Abdelkader are at best, third line forwards. Ericsson continues to struggle while DeKeyser is not a top pairing defenseman, yet is paid as one. The addition of Daley seems more cosmetic–an indicator that Detroit still wants to be considered a playoff team. But his projected 20 points will do little to help a team that has yet to reach bottom. When the figures are added, Detroit owes approximately $38.94MM of its cap to these players. Outside of Tatar, who just re-signed, this is problematic for a team that believes it can compete in the playoffs.

Buyouts

Stephen Weiss ($2.566MM AAV this season, $1.67MM AAV through 2021)

LTIR

Johan Franzen ($3.94MM AAV – 3 years remaining)

Un-signed

Andreas Athanasiou (RFA)

Best Value – Tomas Tatar
Worst Value – Justin Abdelkader

What does the future hold? 

These aren’t the Red Wings of the 90’s or 2000’s where a blank check is afforded to get the best players. Detroit has serious issues in terms of cap management, and recent stories of the no-trade clauses afforded with many of these contracts are problematic as well. General manager Ken Holland has painted himself into a lonely corner, and a poor showing this season could possibly spell doom for his long tenure with Detroit. Maybe things will go favorably for Detroit this season, but after a challenging 2016-17 campaign and very little improvement on the roster, the Red Wings will be hard pressed to stay afloat in a competitive division and conference. Though they could try to peddle contracts away, the long terms and excessive dollars make it challenging for Holland and company to get them off the books–or worse–getting any value for those players shipped off.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Malgin, Sheary, Walker

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The Florida Panthers are a team looking for a reboot after a disappointing campaign. GM Dale Tallon seems to have adopted a total shift in philosophy after buying out Jussi Jokinen and passing on re-signing Jaromir Jagr. The team is opting for a more total youth movement, particularly on offense. In an article with NHL.com’s Alain Poupart, the undersized Denis Malgin spoke about his hopes for the 2017-18 campaign.

Malgin only scored 6 goals and 4 assists in his 47 contest in the NHL last season, but undoubtedly has skill. The former Zurich SC (Swiss A) prospect is known for his craftiness with the puck and his vision for making plays. As any 5’9 player will attest, physicality will be a huge hurdle for him going forward. Still, he only needs to look to recently-ex Panther Jonathan Marchessault to realize that solid offensive instincts can trump a small stature. Malgin, a center, will look to make a more permanent home in Florida this season, although training camp will determine where he begins the year. At only 20 years old, he has plenty of time to improve and bulk up physically.

  • The Conor Sheary contract announced earlier today could turn out to be quite the bargain for the Penguins. The miniature winger’s chemistry with captain Sidney Crosby is undeniable, and he exploded with offensive production alongside him. With 53 points in only 61 games, if Sheary can maintain that sort of productive pace, he will be one of the more cost-effective wingers over the course of his contract. Speaking with the Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey, Sheary said he hoped to prove that this past season wasn’t merely a “one-time thing”. If he can put 3 more campaigns anywhere near as successful as 2016-17, he’s assured to be paid quite a bit more on his next contract. Durability is a concern, but he did appear to absorb harder impacts less regularly as the year progressed.
  • Nathan Walker of the Washington Capitals re-signed with the organization at the beginning of the month, after playing the past two seasons in Hershey. As the Capitals are in a bit of a cap crunch, they will be relying on younger, cheaper players like Walker to fill holes, especially on the third and fourth lines. Walker, like the other two players in these snapshots, needs to prove that he can overcome his short height. At only 5’8, Walker plays a game well above his size. He can handle physicality and his energy can jump-start a shift in a pinch. He also has some level of offensive capability – he’s netted 64 points through 131 AHL contests in the last two seasons. Walker is particularly interesting to trivia buffs, because were he to make an NHL appearance (as seems likely), he would be the first Australian-born player to do so, as noted by Adam Gretz of NBC Sports. Walker’s competition in camp, as of now, isn’t too intimidating. Assuming Jakub Vrana makes the lineup, Walker will only need to beat out the likes of Travis Boyd, Wayne Simpson, Riley Barber and a host of AHL journeymen and minor prospects to cement his playing time.

Islanders’ 2017-18 Season Could Spark Roster Turnover

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The New York Islanders have a difficult season ahead of them, not least of which the arena uncertainty which has been plaguing the team for a decade. After a tumultuous season in Brooklyn at the Barclay’s Center, many fans are simply concerned with finding a proper home in the New York area. Additionally, much attention has been paid to the impending unrestricted free agency of John Tavares at the conclusion of the season. There is good reason for the fanbase’s focus to be centered around captain Tavares, as he will likely be the domino that needs to fall first. That said, the Islanders have 11 expiring NHL contracts at the end of the 2017-18 season, and if the team fails to make the playoffs again, even more expansive changes could be on the horizon.

It should be noted that the Islanders weren’t entirely quiet this off-season, as GM Garth Snow made some unorthodox but ultimately effective moves with Vegas to shield younger players and ship out injured Mikhail Grabovski’s contract. Perhaps more importantly, regards to retaining Tavares, was the acquisition of good friend and skillful finisher Jordan Eberle to play on the star center’s wing. Travis Hamonic was able to be moved for a hefty return from Calgary, and although the team was unable to draw in names from free agency, their young forwards look capable of taking a step forward this season. Although Snow has certainly struggled at times in his tenure, this off-season went about as well as could be expected. All that remains is to sign RFA Calvin de Haan.

The panic begins to set in when you compare the Islanders’ roster with that of the rest of the Metropolitan Division. Pittsburgh will again be a contender. Washington got worse but still won the President’s Trophy last season. Columbus almost unquestionably improved their roster on paper. Carolina added depth in all areas of the ice, including Scott Darling in net. The New York Rangers saw a massive upgrade on defense by subtracting Dan Girardi and adding Kevin Shattenkirk. And the less intimidating Philadelphia Flyers and New Jersey Devils each added a monumental talent to their forward groups at the draft in Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier, respectively. It’s rather arguably the toughest division in the entire league, and the Islanders will have no guarantees of making the playoffs. If they fail to do so, Tavares may only be the beginning of their issues.

Among the unrestricted free agents after the conclusion of the season are Nikolai Kulemin, Josh Bailey, Jason Chimera, Thomas Hickey, Dennis Seidenberg, Jaroslav Halak and the aforementioned Tavares. The restricted free agents on NHL contracts include Brock Nelson, Shane Prince, Alan Quine, Ryan Pulock, Scott Mayfield. Although no name on either list is truly vital, losing 4 or 5 free agents for nothing at the conclusion of the season could be a disastrous error in asset management. Bailey and Hickey in particular may attract solid interest at the trade deadline, but Snow and management will necessarily be determined to make the post-season. If they are still in contention for a spot, it’s hard to see them shipping any roster assets away as long as they are not mathematically eliminated. This situation will only become more dramatic if the Tavares negotiations are still ongoing.

Plainly, the worst case scenario for the Isles would be that Tavares leaves at the conclusion of the year. But it must also be realized that the longer the process drags on, the more consideration might be paid to the feasibility of moving him. The coming season cannot be the entire focus of the franchise. If minimal progress is made by the new year, the team could see a situation where an important cog on the team might leave for absolutely nothing. Worse, his situation may lead to the sacrificing of other assets in the confusion. The Islanders dealt with this last off-season when Frans Nielsen decided to depart for Detroit, stunning Islanders management. Repeating such a mistakewould be absolutely inexcusable, and if unrestricted free agents are unwilling to re-sign or no longer part of the team’s future, they must be moved in the interest of the organization.  The same goes for Tavares. Although losing Tavares would be absolutely crippling, it would be fatal to lose him without recouping any assets whatsoever.

Red Wings Notes: Cholowski, Svechnikov, Daley

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The Detroit News’ Gregg Krupa ranks the Red Wings prospects, indicating that the franchise objective right now is to stockpile young talent. Krupa goes by position, placing defenseman Dennis Cholowski as his #1 defensive prospect and Evgeny Svechnikov as his #1 forward prospect. Though he expects Cholowski to be slow to develop, he writes that the wait could be well worth it as the slick skating, puck moving defenseman could be a top pairing for the Wings in a few seasons, something the team hasn’t boasted since Nicklas Lidstrom’s retirement in 2012. Svechnikov is the prospect many Red Wings fans are desperately waiting for in Detroit, especially after he scored an electrifying shootout goal back in April. Krupa predicts the 20-year-old Russian to see close to a full season in the NHL, especially if the Red Wings struggle to put up points and choose to hand the team over to the kids.

  • Fan Rag’s Franklin Steele believes that Trevor Daley will be an “invaluable” pickup for the goal-scoring starved blue line. While Steele doesn’t see Daley producing more than twenty points, it’s his value on the ice with skating and production as well as his value within the locker room that justifies his signing. Daley is expected to mentor several of the younger players on the team, including Cholowski, who was told by Wings brass to “watch” Daley’s every move. The Daley signing, however, is still a curious one as the Red Wings are in quite the roster flux. Steele points out that between a myriad of bad contracts, Petr Mrazek’s inability to be the #1 goalie, and the Wings hope that Dylan Larkin can play well at center, Daley is about the only certainty in terms of what he’s bringing to the roster–leadership and speed. If that doesn’t work out, Steele offers advice to the organization as to how to proceed next.

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