Montreal May Be Heading In Wrong Direction
As a team like the Edmonton Oilers attempt to build their team of the future by locking up their top young forwards, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to long-term deals to be the centerpieces of the franchise, there are other teams who are building in different ways. The Montreal Canadiens locked up star goaltender Carey Price to an eight-year, $84MM deal that starts next year and will keep him locked up until he hits 40-years old. While few dispute the fact that he is one of the top goaltender in the NHL if not the best, there are questions about whether it was smart to invest so much money into a 30-year-old goalie. In fact, if you also factor in the nine years remaining at $7.86MM per year for defenseman Shea Weber, the Canadiens have its core as well.
Starting next year, the Canadiens will be giving those two 30-something players a combined $18.36MM. That’s comparable to the $21MM that McDavid and Draisaitl will make next year. However, Brendan Kelly of the Montreal Gazette writes that investing all your money in a defenseman and a goalie is not the right way to build a winner. He looks at the blueprints for both the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Chicago Blackhawks, two teams who have put together winning formulas and suggests that in neither case was the goaltender the star of the franchise. Neither was the top two players a defenseman and a goalie. Both franchises won based on superstar forwards, one great defenseman and a solid goalie.
Add in the fact that both players are on the wrong side of 30 and are locked up until the 2025-26 season, both could bring down the franchise with all that much money that will be locked into two players who eventually be in their late 30s. The other problem is with that much invested in those two, there will be little money to focus on offense. All great teams always have a number one center and can Montreal pay for one?
Kelly also adds that while he does believe that Price is the best goalie in the world, Price has not been as dominating in the playoffs and certainly has not single-handedly won the team many playoff series. He cites only two Habs’ goaltenders who have worked playoff “magic” in the last 25 years, including Jose Theodore‘s dominance in 2002 against the Boston Bruins and Jaroslav Halak‘s 2010 playoff performance against Washington and Pittsburgh. Price has not done that yet although he has nine years still to accomplish this.
Price was unable to be a difference-maker against the New York Rangers team in the playoffs this past year, Kelly said. And while the team didn’t lose the series because of Price, the team just wasn’t good enough to beat an average Rangers squad. How will the rest of the team improve when there is little to no money to bolster their offense?
Canadiens Not Pursuing Will Butcher
While at the moment there are 10-12 teams interested in the services of free agent blueliner Will Butcher, the Canadiens are not among them, his agent Brian Bartlett told TVA Sports’ Louis-Andre Lariviere. After turning over their top three defenders on the left side this summer, Montreal had previously been speculated on as a potential landing place.
Free Agent Profile: Dennis Wideman
Recently, PHR has been shining some light on remaining free agents in a very quiet market, with players like P.A. Parenteau, Daniel Winnik, Brian Gionta, Jarome Iginla, and Drew Stafford getting some extra attention. The one thing that those players have in common is that there is not a defenseman among them. The last defenseman profiled was Johnny Oduya, who signed with the Ottawa Senators the next day and remains the last major UFA to have signed an NHL deal. Meanwhile, veteran Andrei Markov left for Russia, while big blue liner Cody Franson remains in limbo (and should consider investing in some real estate there).
Why have no other defenseman garnered attention, both from NHL teams nor the PHR team? There are simply few quality defenders left on the market. Outside of Franson, one lone defenseman remains unsigned from PHR’s list of the Top 50 2017 Free Agents: Dennis Wideman. Wideman was the last man to make the list, ranking 50th overall and 14th among defenseman. At 34 years old and coming off back-to-back seasons that could both be considered the worst of his career, Wideman wasn’t exactly a hot commodity. However, it was still projected that Wideman would find work based on a long track record of being able to play major minutes and put up points, even if just on a short-term inexpensive deal.
Luckily for Wideman, that is still a distinct possibility even in mid-August. The free agent market, for not only defenseman but for all players, is all but dead, yet opportunities remain. Signings have been few and far in between, but Wideman faces only Franson for any open blue line spots and brings a very different skill set. Wideman is an 11-year veteran with 387 points in 815 NHL games and was once considered one of the top puck-movers in the game. Wideman even drew Norris Trophy votes in 2008-09 with the Boston Bruins and turned his impressive resume into a five-year, $26.25MM contract with the Calgary Flames in 2012. Wideman is far from that player today, but still carries the pedigree of a possession defenseman capable of playing big minutes when needed and helping out on the power play.
Even if Franson signs a new contract first, Wideman’s chances of landing a deal of his own are still fair. In each of the past two years, two legitimate NHL defenseman have signed contracts late in free agency. Last year, it was Dennis Seidenberg going to the New York Islanders and Kyle Quincey signing with the New Jersey Devils. Seidenberg looked rejuvenated in Brooklyn and earned himself an extension, while Quincey proved to be a valuable veteran and trade chip for the Devils and has already signed with the Minnesota Wild this summer. In 2015, it was Franson himself, ending up with the Buffalo Sabres on a two-year deal, and David Schlemko, yet another one-year value deal for the Devils.
Potential Suitors
If the pattern isn’t clear yet, a one-year “show me” deal for Wideman with the New Jersey Devils remains a very real possibility. For the third season in a row, the Devils could greatly benefit from adding a talented veteran on the cheap. Although the team has a pair of consummate pros in captain Andy Greene and veteran Ben Lovejoy, as well as some exciting young players like Damon Severson, Mirco Mueller, and John Moore, the team is lacking in depth. Bringing in Wideman, who has become accustomed to a part-time role in Calgary over the past few years, to be a spot starter, capable injury replacement, and mentor to the young offensive blue liners would be a savvy signing by GM Ray Shero.
Another team that is going to be rumored to be in on a top-four defenseman until they actually go out and get one is the Colorado Avalanche. With just three defenseman currently signed to one-way deals and a depth chart lacking in legitimate NHLers, the rebuilding Avs are desperate for help on the blue line. It would not come as surprise if Colorado ended up signing both Wideman and Franson if their “D” corps looks as bad in camp as it does on paper.
Other interested parties that may be looking for affordable veteran depth – and specifically keyed in on a right-handed shot – include the Columbus Blue Jackets, Montreal Canadiens, Los Angeles Kings, or a return to the Washington Capitals.
Expected Contract
The original speculation for Wideman was that he would sign a one-year deal worth $1.5MM. At this point in the off-season and given Wideman’s age and the substantial wear on his tires, a one-year pact is all but certain. The $1.5MM? That isn’t out of the question. Wideman’s past two seasons with the Flames were none toof inspiring and Calgary fans were happy to see him go. However, that doesn’t mean that Wideman can’t return to form with a change of scenery and is just two years removed from a career-high 56 points. He may still be able to command a seven figure salary. The longer he goes unsigned though, the more and more likely he ends up under $1MM. Wideman seems unlikely to take the absolute minimum, $650K, and will hold out hope that he can get somewhere in the neighborhood of the $1.25MM deals that Quincey signed last year and this year. In the end, he may have to settle for only a bit more if he wants to extend his NHL playing career. One way or another, Wideman will be making much less and will have a very different role with his next contract versus his last.
The Signing Bonus: Rise Of The Buyout-Proof Contract (A Reprise)
This article was originally published in July of 2016, but seems extremely relevant a year later. Most of the players discussed inside underachieved in their first season, and again we saw signing bonuses handed out like candy this summer. Included at the bottom is an update with new contracts from this offseason.
The life of an NHL agent is tough. As the league continues to tweak (or totally overhaul) their CBA each few seasons, changing contract regulations and offering teams different ways of structuring deals, agents are always trying to find ways to circumvent them and get the best offers for their clients.
With teams becoming more and more willing to use buyouts to rid themselves of the horrible contracts that they sign on July 1st – famously a day of simultaneous excitement and regret – agents around the league needed to find a way to protect their clients from losing out on a third (or sometimes two-thirds) of the salary the sides agreed on.
The most recent buyout window, which lasted from June 15th to 30th, saw a dozen NHL players bought out, including household names like Thomas Vanek and Dennis Seidenberg. While some fans may see this as an opportunity for a player to earn two contracts at the same time – Vanek was signed on by Detroit for $2.6MM on July 1st, more than the $1.5MM he surrendered in his buyout – most take it as a personal slight, an indictment of their play or character. Regardless, agents continue to try and secure guarantees for their clients, instead of leaving the power in the hands of the league’s general managers.
Enter the signing bonus, this summer’s contract-du-jour. All across the league, big name free agents have inked deals that will see them paid almost entirely in signing bonuses, with very little actual salary being given out each season. Take Loui Eriksson for instance:
2016-17 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2017-18 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2018-19 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $6MM
2019-20 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $4MM
2020-21 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $3MM
2021-22 – Salary: $3MM, Bonus: $1MM
While Eriksson’s cap-hit sits at $6MM per year, he’ll make more than that in bonuses alone each of the next three seasons. There are a couple of reasons why this would benefit the player.
For one, everyone loves getting a big check rather than a weekly salary – who would turn down a piece of paper with six zeros? As any economist will tell you, money in hand is worth more than money promised to come, and just as teams in other sports are deferring payments for this reason long into the future, having money up front is actually more valuable for the player in question.
It’s in the buyout rules that the contract really holds value though, as – hinted at by the title – these contracts are basically buyout-proof. Under the current CBA, buyouts are calculated by taking two-thirds of the remaining salary owed, not including signing bonuses, and spreading it out over twice the remaining contract length. The new cap hit is determined by subtracting the savings from the average annual value of the deal which includes signing bonuses.
This means that if the Canucks were to want to buy out Eriksson after say, the third year of his new deal, they’ll only be saving $333K of cap hit in 2020-21, an insignificant portion of the $6MM number. That last season of $3MM is a bit better for the Canucks (they would save $2MM of his cap hit), but structuring it this way almost guarantees that Eriksson will collect at least $35MM of his deal – more than 97%. It’s just not worth it to buy him out any sooner than his final year.
Andrew Ladd, Milan Lucic, Kyle Okposo all signed deals heavily impacted by signing bonuses, protecting them against a buyout through all but the very end of their agreements. Even Matt Martin, a career fourth liner secured a $10MM deal that is 65% bonus. He’ll only be collecting $750K in salary in years three and four of the deal.
While this doesn’t necessarily mean trouble for clubs around the league, you can bet the owners and NHLPA will take a look at it when negotiations begin on the new CBA. The current agreement expires in 2022, though the two sides have the option to end it a year earlier.
Just as the league has used cap recapture and contract limits to close loopholes in the past, be sure that if they want to continue to have the option to buyout bad contracts they’ll remove this option from the equation. Creating a rule that would make signing bonuses only be able to hit a certain percentage of each season’s salary would be the easy fix, but expect push-back from the NHLPA.
Even if they do end up closing it, agents will work on another way to get their clients the best possible guarantee; they always seem to be one step ahead of the league.
This summer, signing bonuses have taken off even further. Carey Price‘s eight-year extension with the Montreal Canadiens is over 80% signing bonuses, with the goaltender making a maximum of $2MM in salary per year. A $10.5MM cap hit through age-38 will be impossible to buy out, offering almost no cap savings. The Blackhawks face a similar situation with Brent Seabrook, whose 2015 contract is looking worse and worse, and provides little incentive for a buyout.
Interestingly, the Nashville Predators have continued in their practice of avoiding signing bonuses altogether. After signing Filip Forsberg to a bonus-free deal last summer, both Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson have taken similar structures in their long-term extensions this year. GM David Poile has taken much of the risk off the table even as he allocated many of his resources to his trio of young forwards. Though they pose little risk of age-decline, all three carry large enough cap hits to really hurt the Predators if they were to take a step backwards in their development. It’s hard to see any deserving a buyout, but the option is still there.
Alexander Radulov may be the biggest example among 2017 unrestricted free agents, as his contract with the Dallas Stars is both front-loaded and filled with signing bonuses. Radulov will earn just $13.25MM in salary over the next five seasons, making it difficult to buy out even as he enters his mid-thirties. For a player who has a relatively short track record of success in the NHL, it may quickly turn into a problem if he starts to feel the draw of father time.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Montreal Canadiens
Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Montreal Canadiens
Current Cap Hit: $66,537,977 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
D Jakub Jerabek (One year remaining, $925K, UFA)
F Artturi Lehkonen (Two years remaining, $839K, RFA)
Lehkonen made a strong first impression after coming over from the Swedish League, earning himself a regular spot in the lineup. As the season progressed, his responsibilities started to increase and he spent some time in Montreal’s top six. He should find himself either on the second or third line to start next season.
The Canadiens beat out a handful of other NHL teams to sign the 26-year-old Jerabek back in May. He’s coming off a strong first season in the KHL with Vityaz Podolsk where he finished fifth in points by a defenseman. With Montreal losing their top three left-shot defenders from last season (Andrei Markov to the KHL, Nathan Beaulieu to Buffalo via trade and Alexei Emelin in the Expansion Draft), there is an opening for him to step in and play right away. If he doesn’t make the opening roster, he has a European Assignment Clause in his contract.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
F Phillip Danault ($912K, RFA)
D Brandon Davidson ($1.425MM, RFA)
F Jacob de la Rose ($725K, RFA)
F Ales Hemsky ($1MM, UFA)
F Andreas Martinsen ($675K, UFA)
F Torrey Mitchell ($1.2MM, UFA)
D Joe Morrow ($650K, RFA)
F Tomas Plekanec ($6MM, UFA)
D Mark Streit ($700K, UFA)
Potential Bonuses
Streit: $300K
Plekanec is Montreal’s highest-paid forward in terms of cap hit and is coming off of arguably the worst season of his career. While he is still a serviceable checker, his production dropped from 54 points two years ago to just 28 in 2016-17. Given their lack of depth down the middle, he’ll still be called on to log an important role this coming season. Danault is coming off of a breakout campaign that saw him ascend to the top line. If he can follow that up with a similar effort in 2017-18, he’ll be in line for a significant raise next summer and has arbitration eligibility. Hemsky missed most of last season with hip problems and is looking to rebuild his value on a team that had issues scoring with consistency. Mitchell should be able to hold on to his fourth line role for one more year but will be pushed by de la Rose for playing time while Martinsen will likely slide into a reserve spot.
On the back end, Davidson will enter his first full season with the Canadiens after being acquired near the trade deadline from Edmonton. He didn’t see a lot of action after being acquired and will likely battle with Jerabek for ice time. Streit was recently brought in just before Markov’s departure was made official. While he can’t handle big minutes anymore, he can still contribute offensively and could push for a third pairing/power play specialist role for a year. Morrow is no stranger to head coach Claude Julien and was brought in after Boston didn’t qualify him. He’ll also battle for a spot but could also be waived and sent to AHL Laval to serve as depth.
Summer Predictions: Atlantic Division
The hockey world is at a standstill now that August has rolled around. With all of the arbitration cases now decided and just a few restricted free agents left to sign, players and fans alike are counting the days until training camp starts. While there are still several names in free agency that could still help an NHL club, it seems like many are destined either for professional tryouts or late-summer deals after injuries strike.
So now we’ll get into our summer predictions. Before the start of the year we’ll be releasing a full season preview with projections for each club and the expected playoff teams, but first we’ll ask you to give us your take on how you believe each division will end up. Yesterday we looked at the Metropolitan division, a poll that was handily won by the Pittsburgh Penguins despite them not coming first in the Metro since 2013-14 season. The back-to-back Stanley Cup champs are being chosen by many to three-peat, even after saying goodbye to some former playoff stars like Chris Kunitz and Nick Bonino.
Today, we’ll move to the other Eastern Conference division and take a look at the Atlantic. Choose who you think will win the division this season, and make sure to leave your full prediction for the division standings in the comments. As a proxy for the overall standings, we’ll be sure to publish these results alongside our own PHR rankings in September.
Who will win the Atlantic Division?
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Tampa Bay Lightning 33% (459)
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Toronto Maple Leafs 17% (235)
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Boston Bruins 15% (206)
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Montreal Canadiens 15% (205)
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Buffalo Sabres 8% (107)
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Ottawa Senators 8% (106)
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Detroit Red Wings 3% (41)
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Florida Panthers 2% (34)
Total votes: 1,393
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
Joni Ikonen, Ryan Poehling Provide Hope For Center Position
- Center Joni Ikonen is a cause for optimism in Montreal, or so says Grant McCagg of Recrutes. Ikonen’s performance in the recent Summer Showcase was truly head-turning, as the flash he displays on a regular basis is highly intriguing. He also produced enough for fourth-best in the tournament, while looking defensively capable all the while. He finished the tournament with an impressive hat trick in a loss to Sweden. Ryan Poehling, another prospect at the showcase, also played well enough to attract praise. Poehling is less dynamic that Ikonen, but he already has an NHL-ready body and two-way mindset. He, like Ikonen, netted 5 points in 5 games in the brief tournament. The comparisons to Ryan Kesler may be relatively premature, but he seems a solid bet to make an impact. If either, or both, players make the Canadiens roster in the next few seasons, it would go a long way towards alleviating the massive center-ice issues the team has struggled with for at least a decade. Alex Galchenyuk will still likely have to take the reigns for this year, however.
[SOURCE LINK]
Minor Transactions: 8/5/17
It may be August, but hockey transactions are still ongoing. While the major names on the NHL free agent market appear to still be in a holding pattern, AHL teams have begun to fill out their rosters with minor leagues deals. The result has been a recent influx of minor news, both of AHL signings and those with less luck finding a contract in North America signing overseas. Keep track of these moves today right here:
- The EBEL has already made their presence felt this summer more so than ever before with the signings of NHL veterans like Matt Fraser, Ben Walter, and Rob Flick, and now the small Austrian-based league is back at it again. Defenseman Mat Clark has signed on with HC Bolzano for the coming season, the team announced yesterday. Clark, a veteran of nine NHL games with the Anaheim Ducks and over 400 AHL games since turning pro in 2010, is a big addition for the Foxes. Like most North American signings in the EBEL, Clark should step in and compete right away for the title of best player on the team. The big blue liner, a second-round draft pick of the Ducks in 2009, is a dominating stay-at-home threat, but has also contributed some modest offense in the AHL as well.
- If Clark had been able to find a good fit in the AHL for the 2017-18 season, one would think he would have jumped on it. Instead, he decided to take a deal overseas. Dalton Thrower, another defenseman, has chosen a different path. Thrower has signed with Allen Americans of the ECHL for the upcoming campaign. It’s quite the change in direction for Thrower’s career path, as he was not tendered a qualifying offer by the Montreal Canadiens this off-season and goes from an NHL contract to an ECHL contract. A second-round pick of the Habs just five years ago, Thrower has not come close to reaching his lofty expectations, having played almost exclusively in the ECHL since turning pro. However, softening the blow of Thrower losing his NHL connection is a familiar face joining him in Allen. The Americans announced that they have signed both he and his younger brother, Josh Thrower, who aged out of the WHL after last season. The pair are set to dominate the Allen blue line in 2017-18.
- Nolan Zajac is having the opposite fortunes of Thrower, as he’ll jump up a level ahead of next season. The younger brother of New Jersey Devils’ mainstay Travis Zajac, the 25-year-old defenseman has signed an AHL deal with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms. Zajac had signed with the ECHL’s Toledo Walleye out of college last off-season, but after 54 points in 61 games and strong performances on loan to three different AHL teams, he has earned a full-time role at the next level. The former University of Denver standout is a strong skater who has left his mark on the score sheet wherever he has played, Zajac will look to continue to climb through the ranks of pro hockey next season. With a big year in Lehigh Valley, the Philadelphia Flyers’ affiliate, Zajac may just end up with an NHL contract next summer and a possible divisional sibling rivalry down the road.
- The AHL’s Ontario Reign, the affiliate to the Los Angeles Kings, have re-signed two-way forward Sam Herr to a one-year extension. The former Notre Dame winger made his pro debut in 2016-17 with 14 points in 61 regular season games with the Reign and looked his best during the team’s short playoff run. The 24-year-old may not have NHL chops, but is a smart player and hard worker who will surely be able to help Ontario out in the coming season.
More to come…
Andrei Markov Will Play In KHL In 2017-18
Monday: Ak Bars Kazan has announced a two-year deal with Markov.
Thursday: Breaking his own news, Andrei Markov announced on a conference call with reporters that he will play in the KHL in 2017-18. He was willing to sign a one-year deal with the Montreal Canadiens but couldn’t come to an agreement, and had other offers from around the NHL before deciding to head back to Russia. In his own words:
I didn’t see myself with any other NHL team. I didn’t see myself wearing another jersey.
NHL.com correspondent Sergey Demidov reports that it will be Ak Bars Kazan that signs Markov, though he wouldn’t confirm it on the call. It’s likely that he’ll retire having only played for a single NHL team, something that’s hard to find in professional sports these days. He did say he could return to Montreal in a year, though that would be a surprising turn after the team clearly wasn’t ready to meet his asking price this summer. The 38-year old will be able to play in the Olympics next year, which would be his fourth such tournament for Russia.
Markov was clearly upset that he was leaving Montreal, but did say that it was a positive move for his family. Just recently Markov got married and has several children, who can now all move back to Russia together. Earlier this year he brought his young twin boys over from Russia after their mother passed away.
It’s a likely end to what was an outstanding NHL career, with 990 regular season games and 572 points. He obviously could have helped a large group of teams around the league still, but never wanted to play for a different team. Montreal had been the team that gave him his first shot in North America, and it was going to be where he finished his career.
Montreal’s Challenges In Utilizing Their Remaining Cap Space
Defenseman Andrei Markov’s departure from Montreal caught many by surprise, particularly since the team had more than enough cap space to bring him back; even after bringing in Mark Streit, the team has more than $8MM to work with per CapFriendly. While the expectation is that GM Marc Bergevin will look to add a big-ticket player now through the trade market or free agency, that’s something that may be easier said than done.
For starters, Markov was arguably the most prominent player left on the open market. There’s a case to be made that there aren’t any top-four blueliners left in free agency so replacing him that way isn’t going to happen. The Canadiens also need help down the middle but the top unsigned UFAs are players that are pondering retirement at this time in Mike Fisher and Matt Cullen. There are wingers who can still help plenty of teams including Montreal that remain available but that’s one area where their depth is fairly strong.
[Related: Montreal’s Depth Chart at Roster Resource]
As a result, going the trade route seems to be the likeliest way to go. However, there are some restrictions there as well. First off, their best trade chip in defenseman Mikhail Sergachev was already dealt to Tampa Bay as part of the Jonathan Drouin deal. He was the one youngster who could be the centerpiece of a trade for an impact player so it’s fair to question whether they have the prospect capital to land that big piece via trade.
Montreal’s financial situation beyond this season also is worth noting. For 2018-19, they already have nearly $58MM committed to just 15 players. While center Tomas Plekanec ($6MM) is a significant expiring contract, most of his salary is already earmarked to cover Carey Price’s new deal which kicks in then. Fast forward one more year and the commitment stands at over $48MM to just nine players (with captain Max Pacioretty among those slated to become unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2019). Accordingly, it’s fair to speculate that Bergevin may not want to add another high salary that’s signed beyond next season, especially with the expectation that the salary cap is going to continue to flatten out.
There aren’t many teams in dire cap straits either that they could potentially look to exploit. Three are currently pegged to be over (Toronto, Chicago, and Detroit) but they all have players eligible for long-term injury reserve that will mitigate the need to dump a sizable salary. Washington’s in a tight spot as well but they can work around that by filling out the roster with near-minimum salary players instead of necessarily moving someone more prominent out.
All of a sudden, while the Canadiens have plenty of room to work with, the options don’t seem quite as plentiful. Free agency isn’t likely to provide much help while if they want to add an impact player, they may not want to look at players on longer-term deals unless they’re sending at least some salary the other way so while the money is there, there are also some challenges they have to deal with when they go to spend it.
One way or the other though, it’s highly unlikely that Montreal enters 2017-18 with $8MM in cap room which makes them a team to watch for the rest of the offseason.