Poll: Is Tyson Barrie A Significant Upgrade Over Jake Gardiner?
While most people look at the Toronto Maple Leafs’ acquisition of Tyson Barrie as a major plus when the team picked up the lead defenseman and Alex Kerfoot for Nazem Kadri and Calle Rosen on July 1, there are other analytics experts who suggest that the addition of Barrie isn’t much, if any improvements over Jake Gardiner, who the team has allowed to walk away in free agency.
Of course, Barrie looks like an impressive upgrade, especially when you look at his offensive numbers. Barrie scored 14 goals and 59 points last season and posted 57 points the previous year, giving Toronto another top-notch offensive defenseman next to Morgan Rielly. Gardiner was a second-pairing defenseman whose offense disappeared last year with 30 points, even though he posted 52 points the previous season. However, only one player, Barrie or Rielly, can get those first-line power play minutes and there is no guarantee that Barrie will be able to pry those minutes away from Rielly next season, suggesting that Barrie’s number’s could drop quite a bit. In fact, two goals and 23 assists came off the power play last season where Barrie was the team’s quarterback of the first power play unit.
However, analytics suggest that Gardiner, despite his struggles might prove to be a better blueliner, especially defensively. While Toronto is an offensive juggernaut, Gardiner still had a plus-19 rating in plus-minus, while there are some questions about how good a defender Barrie is. In Colorado, Barrie posted a minus-3 on an Avalanche squad that made the playoffs last season and a minus-19 the previous year, when they were a playoff team as well. While plus-minus might be considered to be an unreliable fact, Gardiner has been solid for Toronto despite the fact receiving Toronto fans wrath for years. He has averaged over 21:48 of ATOI over the past three years and in those three years ranks 23rd in the league in points with 125. In goals above replacement (GAR), which is an all-encompassing stat to evaluate skaters, Gardiner ranked 17th among defenseman last year and fifth in the league at even strength, according to evolving-hockey.com. Barrie ranked 50th last season and 66th at even strength.
However, Gardiner’s value seems to have dropped. Despite being considered one of the top defensive free agents on the unrestricted free agent market, Gardiner remains unsigned with rumors he’s seeking $7MM per season. While a change in scenery might have been needed for Gardiner, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Barrie will be the better player.
So, is Barrie a significant upgrade over Gardiner?
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St. Louis Blues Sign Jordan Binnington To Two-Year Deal
The St. Louis Blues continue to lock up their players. A day after signing Robby Fabbri and Mitch Reinke Friday, St. Louis has come to terms with one of the stars of their Stanley Cup run as the Blues announced they have signed goaltender Jordan Binnington to a two-year deal with a $4.4MM AAV, avoiding arbitration with him. That deal gives him a slightly higher AAV than backup Jake Allen, who has a 4.35MM AAV.
“We are pleased to have Jordan signed for two more years,” added Blues General Manager Doug Armstrong. “His play was outstanding and we look forward to seeing him continue to be a major contributor for our team.”
Binnington may have been the difference for a team that was in 31st place on Jan. 2 and then finished one of the most remarkable runs in NHL history by winning the Stanley Cup. The team recalled Binnington from the AHL on Jan. 7 and the then-25-year-old posted an immediate shutout in his first start. The rookie then went 24-5-1 over the remainder of the season, putting up a 1.89 GAA and a .927 save percentage, seizing the No. 1 goalie job from Allen. Binnington continued that success throughout the playoffs, putting up a 16-10 playoff record, including a 2.46 GAA and a .914 save percentage, including one shutout.
While he’s been with the Blues organization for years, up until this year, he has been sitting in the AHL with no clear-cut shot at a job with the Blues. In fact, St. Louis didn’t have an AHL affiliate last year after the Vegas Golden Knights took their affiliate, the Chicago Wolves, and the Blues were forced to loan out their prospects to a pair of different affiliates. St. Louis actually loaned Binnington out to the Providence Bruins as they couldn’t find a place to put him. Regardless, he put up good numbers that year and was dominant in the first half of the season this year with their new affiliate, the San Antonio Rampage, putting up a .927 save percentage in 16 starts.
Considering that he had made one NHL appearanIce in his career until now, many wondered what kind of contract that Binnington would receive as many people felt that he would have to prove he could repeat that string of success before he could earn a long-term contract. That proved to be true as Binnington will be betting on himself this year. The two years will take him to unrestricted free agency, which likely means that if Binnington can produce similar success next season, the Blues would likely want to sign the goaltender to an extension on July 1 next season so that Binnington wouldn’t end up on the open market in 2021.
With the signing, the Blues now have $7.12MM in projected cap space with a roster of 22 players. The team still has a number of restricted free agents, including Ivan Barbashev, Oskar Sundqvist, Joel Edmundson and Ville Husso.
Snapshots: Sabres, Gardiner, Tkachyov
Few have criticized the Sabres’ side of the recent Henri Jokiharju–Alexander Nylander trade, but it’s a fact that Buffalo is overflowing with defenders after acquiring the young right-hander from the Chicago Blackhawks. As Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News’ points out, the Sabres still have needs to fill up front and they could use their defensive depth to do so. Lysowski writes that Buffalo has ample cap space to make an addition at forward, but there are few ideal candidates left on the free agent market and the team may as well use their surplus of blue liners to swing a deal. Jokiharju is safe, as are fellow recent additions Brandon Montour and Colin Miller and 2017 No. 1 pick Rasmus Dahlin. RFA Jake McCabe is not likely to be dealt, but a potential candidate and injury-prone Zach Bogosian and overpaid veteran Matt Hunwick might be hard to move. That would seemingly leave Rasmus Ristolainen, a fixture on the rumor mill, Marco Scandella, and Casey Nelson as the most likely names to be dealt and it would not be a surprise if more than one ends up elsewhere. The Sabres are certainly not done making moves this summer.
- Of course, this makes Buffalo just one of a surprising number of teams not biting on Jake Gardiner this summer. PHR’s top-ranked UFA defenseman, Gardiner remains unsigned more than a week after the market opened. NBC Sports’ Scott Billeck reports that Gardiner is seeking $7MM annually in his next year, which is likely pricing himself out of the range that many D-needy teams are looking for. It’s hard to argue that Gardiner was not the best available defenseman when free agency opened, but he’s also not a top-pair defenseman by most metrics and teams aren’t willing to shell out right now simply due to a weak market. Billeck names the Winnipeg Jets as a team that could use Gardiner, but can’t afford him at his current asking price. The Montreal Canadiens, Detroit Red Wings, and his own Toronto Maple Leafs also fit that description. Billeck feels the New Jersey Devils could be the leading candidate to land Gardiner right now, but there really aren’t many clear fits for the defender at this time unless he changes his expectations.
- Despite flirting with a jump to the NHL for several years, Vladimir Tkachyov has decided to re-sign in the KHL once again. SKA St. Petersburg has announced an extension with the young scorer. Tkachyov, 23, has been a solid offensive contributor for the past several years but the best may still be yet to come. The winger was acquired by SKA last month from Salavat Yulaev Ufa for the rights to Nikita Soshnikov, who has since signed in Ufa, and Tkachyov could be set for some career-highs with the perennial contenders in St. Petersburg. It is a two-year contract with SKA, so Tkachyov has a couple more years to further prove he is a formidable forward, and could very well drawn NHL attention once again in 2021.
Poll: Which UFA Contract Will Look The Worst Next Year?
When July 1st rolls around every year, excitement around the NHL goes through the roof. Top players are available for nothing but money and fans want their favorite team to shell out the dollars and cents to improve the club. Unfortunately, the deals that are made on the unrestricted free agent market are so often flawed and doomed to fail. Teams overpay for over-the-hill veterans or lock up players already in their prime for far too long. Former NHL GM Brian Burke has long held the belief that more mistakes are made on the first day of free agency than any other.
Every year we get a reminder of just how tricky the free agent market is. In 2017 we saw players like Karl Alzner (five years, $23.1MM), Patrick Marleau (three years, $18.8MM) and Kevin Shattenkirk (four years, $26.6MM) all sign contracts that would be regretted down the road. Alzner has spent time in the minors after clearing waivers, Marleau has already been bought out of the last year of his deal and Shattenkirk could potentially face the same fate later this summer if the New York Rangers are desperate for cap space.
Just one year after the 2018 frenzy and there are already several deals that look like mistakes. Jack Johnson‘s long-term deal (five years, $16.3MM) has Pittsburgh Penguins fans shaking their heads, while the Calgary Flames can’t find a spot for James Neal (five years, $28.8MM). Ilya Kovalchuk (three years, $18.8MM) looks like a shadow of what he once was.
Given the history of failure in this period, you can only assume that there will be teams deeply regretting things they did just a few days ago. Even just a year from now they might be trying to buy out some of the contracts they signed, or shipping them somewhere else to free up room. Which will be the worst? Which contract will be so unbearable a year from now that fans will be hollering for its removal? Cast your vote below and make sure to leave a comment explaining why:
Only contracts signed July 1, 2019 have been included
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Boston Bruins To Sign Samuel Asselin
July 8: The Bruins have announced the signing of Asselin, but not to a three-year entry-level contract. In fact, not to an NHL contract at all. Asselin has signed a two-year AHL deal and will begin his pro career under contract with Providence rather than Boston. This change allows the Bruins to maintain some degree of control over Asselin, without having to use up a valued NHL contract slot. The Bruins have nine such slots remaining with at least three more signings guaranteed this off-season.
June 7: According to Mikael Lalancette of TVA Sports, the Boston Bruins will be signing undrafted CHL free agent Samuel Asselin to a three-year entry-level contract. Lalancette adds that the Montreal Canadiens had also shown interest in the Quebec native.
Asselin, 20, had his best season of junior this year after being traded to the Halifax Mooseheads early on. In 68 regular season games he scored 48 times, leading the QMJHL in goals and placing tenth in overall scoring with 86 points. The undersized forward was almost as effective in the playoffs, recording nine goals and 17 points in 22 games as the Mooseheads went to the league final. He was named a QMJHL Second Team All-Star for his efforts, though the real prize is the NHL contract he is about to sign.
The Bruins have done extremely well with overlooked QMJHL stars in the past, as star forwards Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron were both selected outside of the first round. Obviously reaching that kind of level is a stretch for a player like Asselin, the team obviously believes he has shown some NHL potential this season. He had attended development camp with the Columbus Blue Jackets in the past but failed to earn a deal.
Asselin will turn 21 next month and will have to deal with a jump to the professional ranks in 2019-20, likely suiting up for the Bruins’ AHL affiliate. Not only will he have to continue to produce offensively, but if he wants to make it all the way to the NHL—especially as a center—he’ll have to compete physically and tighten up defensively. His faceoff skills are already strong, winning 54.1% of his draws this season, but it will only get tougher as the competition increases.
Pat Maroon Looking For More Than One-Year Deal
It seemed a good bet that Pat Maroon would re-sign with the St. Louis Blues for the 2018-19 season, after taking less money to be closer to his son last year. It worked out for everyone involved as the Blues would end up winning the Stanley Cup with Maroon in the lineup, but their interest hasn’t been clear in re-signing the veteran power forward. Now, Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic provides an update on Maroon’s free agency, indicating that he has several one-year offers from around the league but is waiting for the right fit and at least a “couple years.” Rutherford tweets that the Blues have limited interest.
Maroon, 31, finished the season with 28 points in 74 games for the Blues but was a key part of their Stanley Cup run. Scoring two game-winning goals against the Dallas Stars including the series-clinching effort in double overtime of game seven, the team may have never gotten past the second round without him. Still, his offensive production does seem to be on the decline after tallying just ten goals in the regular season, and at his size teams may be wary of his game completely falling off a cliff.
The 6’3″ 225-lbs forward is something of a throwback to a past era of NHL hockey, slower than many of his teammates but still talented and big enough to get to the right spots at the right times. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet quoted an NHL executive that explained Maroon is “a dinosaur, but there’s no one left who knows how to play against a dinosaur.”
In 449 career regular season games, Maroon has recorded 206 points. He scored 27 goals in 2016-17 with the Edmonton Oilers, and set a career-high in points with 43 the following year. If a team can get that kind of production out of the “Big Rig,” he would likely be worth whatever contract he has to settle for; whether that can realistically happen at this point is the question.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Snapshots: Puljujarvi, Broberg, Aho, Eriksson
A return to the Edmonton Oilers for restricted free agent Jesse Puljujarvi is getting less and less likely. Despite hope that new general manager Ken Holland and head coach Dave Tippett might be able to give the 21-year-old a fresh start, Puljujarvi hasn’t shown much interest in returning to the team since he requested the team trade him to give him a new start elsewhere.
“Although the Oilers have a new well-respected GM and a new coach the team is still pretty much the same,” said Puljujarvi’s agent Markus Lehto (in a Finnish publication via Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins. “Sometimes a player and a team are not a fit. This seems to be the case here. Nothing radical about it.”
While Leavins leaves the quote open to interpretation, especially the part where he said, “… the team is pretty much the same.” However, it’s clear that Puljujarvi has little interest in returning to Edmonton, leaving him with two options, waiting for Edmonton to find a trade partner or allowing him to leave and play overseas next season. Finding a trade partner has been challenging as the team wants good value back for a player who has just 17 goals over three full seasons.
- A Swedish website, Hockey Svervige (translation required) reports that Edmonton Oilers first-round pick Philip Broberg, who recently signed his entry-level deal, will play for Sweden’s Skelleftea in the SHL this year alongside fellow Oilers’ prospect Filip Berglund, rather than come over to North America immediately. The Edmonton Journal’s David Staples adds that Holland’s main objective was to put him in a position to get the most minutes possible, which was the main reason for wanting him to come to North America and play in the OHL with the Hamilton Bulldogs. However, while there is no guarantee of playing time with Skelleftea, the team could always send him down to the Allsvenskan and have him return to his old team, AIK Stockholm.
- In a tweet sent out by Carolina Hurricanes newly signed forward Sebastian Aho, the 21-year-old makes it clear that he only hoped to settle his restricted free agency as quickly as possible and had no interest in leaving Carolina. “I am grateful for the offer from the Montreal Canadiens, but it was always my hope to return to the Hurricanes,” Aho said. “As a restricted free agent, I had limited options for moving along the process to get a deal done. It was always important to me to be on the ice for the first day of training camp. This entire situation has been difficult for me and my family, and I am happy it is at an end.”
- Patrick Johnston of The Province writes that it is becoming less and less likely that the Vancouver Canucks will be unloading the contract of veteran Loui Eriksson this offseason. The scribe writes that general manager Jim Benning has not been able to reach Eriksson to talk to him about the situation, it is clear he doesn’t intend to request a trade and isn’t planning on retiring. There are fewer and fewer options to find a team with the salary cap needed to take on his three years and $6MM AAV and with a full no-trade clause, he doesn’t have to accept a deal anywhere either. So unless, Benning can make an impressive maneuver, it looks like the Canucks are stuck with him.
Carolina Hurricanes To Match Sebastian Aho Offer Sheet
July 7: The Carolina Hurricanes have officially announced that they have matched the Montreal Canadiens offer sheet, as expected. This will free up the cap room that Montreal had tied up in the offer sheet for the last five days.
July 2: It may come as little surprise but the Carolina Hurricanes are set to match the Montreal Canadiens offer sheet signed yesterday by Sebastian Aho. Aho will remain part of the Hurricanes organization and will now be on a five-year, $42.27MM contract that takes him to unrestricted free agency in 2024. The Hurricanes will not be allowed to trade Aho for one year. The important part of the release for Montreal fans is that the Hurricanes will likely take the entire week allowed to formally submit the paperwork. Carolina GM Don Waddell explained the decision:
This was an easy decision. Sebastian is one of the best players in the league and the centerpiece of what we’re building here. We’ve spoken to him throughout this process and he’s made it clear that he wants to be in Raleigh and be a part of this organization.
It’s our job to manage our cap space as our players develop and hit free agency. There was no concern at any point that we would not be able to match this contract. Once again, the Carolina Hurricanes should not be underestimated. We have a plan and all the resources to win a Stanley Cup.
Aho, 21, has developed into a premiere offensive talent in the NHL through his three seasons and will now be paid like one. The deal will carry an $8.454MM cap hit throughout, but also includes more than $38MM in signing bonuses. Aho will earn the minimum NHL salary in each season, earning the rest of his money in a lump sum every July. That structure is what was included by the Canadiens in a hope to steal Aho away from Carolina, or at least what was negotiated in by his agent in order to facilitate a deal. The Hurricanes and their star center will now not have to go through a summer of contract talks, instead having things resolved by a third party.
The deal actually doesn’t represent a real over-payment by the Hurricanes, in fact some have dubbed it a bargain after some of the numbers that had been floating around attached to this year’s restricted free agent crop. Aho will slot in as the 25th-highest cap hit in the league for the time being, right between Steven Stamkos and Claude Giroux. After his 83-point season in 2018-19 he deserves to be considered among that group, especially after moving to center full-time.
A downside to the deal for the Hurricanes though is the length. It will buy out just a single season of unrestricted free agency and could have him poised to start a bidding war for his services if the team can’t work out an extension down the line. While that is years away from consideration, having a contract thrust upon you in this manner is not an optimal situation.
Poll: How Many Top 50 Free Agents Will Opt For Retirement?
A week into free agency, the vast majority of PHR’s Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents are under contract. Unsurprisingly, many of those left unsigned are on the wrong side of 30 or even at or approaching 40. Veterans tend to be later additions in free agency, as teams aren’t rushing to sign them to long-term deals to be core pieces, but rather seek to use them to plug holes in the lineup after the fact. As of now, there are nine names in the Top 50 that are legitimate candidates for retirement. Some have offers on the table and are taking their time to make a decision, while other may not have much of a market and could have to choose between a PTO or calling it a career. How many will choose retirement this summer?
Justin Williams, 37, enjoyed a tremendous 53-point season with the Carolina Hurricanes this past season and looked far from done. GM Don Waddell hinted that the captain will return next season, but until pen meets paper it remains a question mark. Williams was a key piece of the Hurricanes’ run to the Eastern Conference Final last season and would be a major loss for the team. However, he could opt to go out on top as a player who has seen very little drop-off in production through his 30’s and hit his highest point total since 2011-12 last season. Williams can still play, but the question is whether he wants to.
Joe Thornton, 40, not only wants to play next season, but wants to play several more years. The future Hall of Famer has already had an illustrious career, but has yet to win that elusive Stanley Cup. Thornton would like to return to the San Jose Sharks, one of only two teams he’s played for in his 21-year career, and the Sharks should be able to find the space to bring him back after moving out salary via trade and free agency departures. However, Thornton’s asking price will play a part – he did top 50 points again last season – as will the Sharks’ interest in bringing back another retirement threat. Patrick Marleau, 39, left San Jose two years ago to join the Toronto Maple Leafs, but has since been bought out and all signs point to a desire to return to the Sharks. These two legendary Sharks are both capable of continuing their NHL careers, but can San Jose fit them both and are either willing to sign elsewhere at this point in their careers?
Brian Boyle, 34, enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2018-19 and netted a second-round pick at the trade deadline. He clearly still has value as a big, smart two-way forward, but the lack of attention he has garnered thus far in free agency is curious. Boyle did not make as much of an impact in Nashville post-trade as he did in New Jersey and teams may be skeptical of his production moving forward. Between a cold market and recent health concerns, Boyle may be considering calling it a career while he’s still considered an elite defensive forward. However, it would be a surprise if there isn’t a team in the NHL who could still use Boyle’s ability.
Dion Phaneuf, 34, is fresh off of a buyout and should be available at a bargain rate as he continues to cash paychecks from the Los Angeles Kings. Phaneuf stated earlier this off-season that he would be happy to land with a contender, but is also open to taking on a mentor role with a young team. That would seemingly make him a candidate to join a number of D-needy teams. Yet, a week into free agency there has been almost no noise surrounding Phaneuf. The veteran still plays a strong checking game, but his offense and mobility fell off a cliff last season, resulting in drastic career lows in production and ice time. Teams may be hesitant to invest at his current asking price. Phaneuf may be looking at a decision between a short-term, minimum deal or walking away.
Ben Lovejoy, 35, is also coming off an uninspiring season. The Dallas Stars still felt he was worth a deadline gamble, but Lovejoy failed to make much of an impact offensively with either the Stars or Devils pre-trade. An experienced journeyman defenseman, Lovejoy still plays a strong defensive game and has great awareness in his own zone. However, when it comes to moving the puck he can be prone to turnovers and when asked to contribute offensively, he offers little. At this point in his career, Lovejoy is an ideal No. 7 or 8 defenseman. However, does he want to continue his playing career only to be used sparingly as a depth player? That’s the question.
Thomas Vanek, 35, is a tricky case. While his 36 points this season marked a career low, it also came in just 64 games and was one of the top marks for the Detroit Red Wings. Vanek has been a tough player to get a read on in recent years because he has moved around so much and played in a variety of roles. The eye test, combined with a plethora of rumors so far this summer, suggest that he can keep playing. But does a decorated veteran really want to continue being a hired gun and deadline deal year after year? If Vanek can find some security in a short-term contract, he will stick around in the NHL and likely continue to be a great value as a player capable of 50 points. However, the respected veteran may also be ready to call it a career if the right fit doesn’t exist.
Niklas Kronwall, 38, and Deryk Engelland, 37, are both in the same boat. They will either return to their current teams – the Red Wings and Golden Knights respectively – or they’ll retire. Neither is looking to move at this point in their careers, nor can they command salaries that their teams cannot pay. Instead, the duo are both valued for their leadership and loyalty and can still play well enough in a regular role or, more likely, thrive in a depth role. The question for both is simply how much they have left in the tank and whether it’s time to quit while they’re ahead.
So what do you think? Nine players, all with good reason to retire but also to keep playing, with various market factors at work. How many suit up in the NHL next season and how many make a final announcement in the coming weeks?
Metropolitan Notes: Devils Moves, Flyers Roster, Backstrom
There still remains a number of intriguing free agents available on the open market, including Jake Gardiner, Ryan Dzingel and Micheal Ferland. However, despite having $20.77MM in projected cap space remaining on their roster, it’s unlikely the New Jersey Devils will be adding one of them unless their asking price drops significantly, according to The Athletic’s Corey Masisak (subscription required).
That cap number is somewhat deceiving as New Jersey has several restricted free agents they must deal with, including Pavel Zacha, Will Butcher, Mirco Mueller and Connor Carrick, amongst others. No player should walk away with too significant a deal, meaning the Devils would have the cap space to sign one of those free agents, but that still seems unlikely. The team already made their major moves earlier, trading for P.K. Subban and signing winger Wayne Simmonds in free agency. That, however, doesn’t mean they are done making moves.
“I made some calls,” Shero. “This week will be the same thing, and we certainly would want to see what’s out there, if there’s a chance as we go into the summertime and the rest of the summer into training camp.”
- Sam Carchidi of Philly.com comes up with an early projection of the Philadelphia Flyers’ lineup with one interesting hole on the team’s third line. The scribe pencils in Nolan Patrick centering Oskar Lindblom, but lists the other wing position to a mystery man, likely to be battled during training camp. He notes that there are two logical candidates to win the role including veteran Scott Laughton as well as youngsters Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee. The 20-year-old Frost, a 2017 first-rounder, wrapped up his junior career last season and combined for 79 goals and 221 points over his last two years for the Soo Greyhounds of the OHL. The 19-year-old Farabee, a 2018 first-rounder, signed with the Flyers after one season with Boston University in which he scored 17 goals and 36 points in 37 games.
- While the discussions of whether the Washington Capitals will be able to retain goaltender Braden Holtby after next season has been discussed, the Washington Capitals have another significant free agent as well next offseason in Niklas Backstrom. The Washington Post’s Barry Svrluga suggests that the Capitals are almost certainly going to find a way to bring the veteran center back. Backstrom will be 32 by then, but has been such an integral piece to the first line next to Alexander Ovechkin, that it seems inconceivable the team will allow the veteran to walk away, especially without a young center waiting in the wings, which Washington does not have. Backstrom is still putting up solid numbers as he scored 22 goals and 74 points last season.