Poll: Which 35+ Free Agent Would You Rather Sign?
Despite the lingering availability of Jake Gardiner on the market, most teams are just about done with their unrestricted free agent shopping. We saw Kevin Shattenkirk snapped up quickly as soon as he became available, but Michael Stone hasn’t had the same luck so far. Younger players like Ben Hutton may have to wait until the restricted free agent situations around the league are solved, just like some of the older names out there.
Like every year, August brings a lot of questions surrounding the future of long-time NHL skaters. Is it time to hang up their blades, or will there be a team offering a chance at one more kick at the can? In the NHL, multi-year contracts given out to players over the age of 35 come with some added risk. If that player decides to retire at any point, the full average annual value is still applied to his team’s salary cap and he becomes a burden on the books. That only really affects teams that give out expensive deals to aging players though, and one-year contracts for those veterans can actually be quite beneficial to both sides. One-year contracts signed by players over 35 are eligible to include performance bonuses, something that cannot be given to most other players during their NHL careers. We’ve seen plenty of these contracts handed out in the past, and they can be a perfect blend of low risk for the club and high reward for the player.
The group of 35+ skaters this year still without a contract is quite impressive. While last summer our community thought Scott Hartnell was the best “old guy” available late into free agency, this year has some names that could still provide quite an impact. Joe Thornton is one of those names that sticks out, though he is still expected to re-sign with the San Jose Sharks at some point. The (literal) graybeard has made it clear he wants to play again but only for the Sharks, though he’ll likely have to take a pay cut to do it.
Thornton doesn’t even lead the way in terms of 2018-19 production even though he had 51 points last season. Justin Williams takes the cake in that department after his impressive 23-goal, 53-point year with the Carolina Hurricanes. Williams is a respected leader and can still add some offense, but is still making his decision on whether to come back for another year.
Those two aren’t the only useful players in the group however, meaning there might be several 35+ deals handed out over the next month. If you could get one of them on a one-year deal for your team, who would it be? Cast your vote below and make sure to explain why in the comment section.
Which 35+ free agent would you rather have?
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Joe Thornton 36% (525)
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Justin Williams 31% (444)
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Patrick Marleau 13% (184)
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Niklas Kronwall 5% (72)
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Thomas Vanek 5% (66)
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Jason Pominville 4% (60)
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Dan Girardi 2% (34)
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Cam Ward 2% (27)
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Ben Lovejoy 1% (21)
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Other 1% (21)
Total votes: 1,454
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
More On Don Waddell’s Position With Carolina
Wednesday: While Waddell has interviewed for the Minnesota job, Dundon fully believes that his current general manager will remain with the team. He told NHL.com’s Tom Gulitti that he expects Waddell to be Carolina’s GM for a while and that he intends to continue with Waddell not being under any sort of formal contract.
Tuesday: For those who weren’t aware that GM Don Waddell had not yet signed a new contract with the Carolina Hurricanes, especially some Hurricanes fans, it came as a painful revelation this morning when the news broke that Waddell had interviewed for the same role with the Minnesota Wild. The resulting question obviously becomes: why hasn’t a General Manager of the Year candidate, whose team made a surprise run to the Eastern Conference Final, been re-signed?
As Luke DeCock of the Raleigh News & Observer writes, Waddell’s continued free agency is just one of a series of odd moves – or really non-moves – made by the Hurricanes organization this off-season. In addition to the GM and President operating without a contract, Carolina has also allowed several executives and scouts to depart, as well as Calder Cup-winning AHL coach Mike Vellucci, and goalie coach Mike Bales, who has yet to be replaced. This all comes from what DeCock describes as owner Tom Dundon‘s belief that “everyone and everything is replaceable”.
Dundon himself addressed the situation, speaking honestly with DeCock about his mindset when it comes to front office staffing:
Even if [Waddell] had a contract I would let him interview, so what’s the difference? It’s not going to stop somebody from doing whatever’s better for them. If they’re going to pay somebody more money, I’m not going to stop them. I told him he’s got to do what’s best for him… I’m not going to pay what other guys pay GMs, so me having a contract with a GM doesn’t really help me. Don in essence has a contract. I already told Don, ‘I’m not going to fire you. If I did, I’d tell you a year in advance.’ My life’s pretty good. I want people to do what’s best for their life. If this is what’s best for Don, the Hurricanes will be fine.”
It’s a bold strategy by the owner and one that might frighten some fans about in the direction of the franchise. At the same time, Waddell has seemed agreeable to the premise and it could be that this is simply Dundon’s style and many are content to operate as such. DeCock writes that Waddell has continued in a “business as usual” manner ever since his contract expired in June and interviewing with the Wild is the first sign that he may be unhappy with his current at-will status. The GM himself talked to DeCock about the situation, and seemed open to the arrangement though:
Tom doesn’t believe in a lot of contracts. Tom’s told me I have a job for life. But he’s also encouraged me to explore other opportunities to see what the market will pay. We started something here, I love it here, but when the job opened up and Tom said you should explore it, that’s what I’m doing.
It remains to be seen whether, as Waddell mentioned, this interview in Minnesota was more or less a way to gauge the market for use as leverage in eventual contract talks or if the GM really is interested in moving on after such a strong first season in Carolina. It is a very strange and unique situation and this is certainly not the last of this story.
2019 Arbitration Figures And Results
August 6th: All arbitration cases have now been completed. In total, six cases were decided by an arbitrator’s award this year. That number, though seemingly not many, actually presents a 50% increase over last summer and more than the past two off-seasons combined. Of those six decisions, the teams and players received the favorable decision an even three times apiece, and each award landed within $150K of the midpoint. All things considered, there were few surprises in arbitration, even though there were more awards than expected. Now the question is where the relationships between those teams and players go from here.
Originally published on July 19th: Friday marked the start of the arbitration season in the NHL, with Brock McGinn first scheduled for his hearing with the Carolina Hurricanes. The appointments will come fast and furious after that, with 23 cases left on the books. When we asked our readers how many would actually get to the hearing stage more than 36% of voters thought 3-4 was reasonable, the same number that reached last year.
We know now that at least one will, as Andrew Copp‘s agent Kurt Overhardt told Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Free Press that their camp will “look forward to” the hearing scheduled for Sunday. Copp and the Jets exchanged figures earlier today. It is important to remember that the two sides can actually work out a deal in the short period after the hearing and before the actual decision is submitted by the arbitrator. For every case except Ville Husso, who the St. Louis Blues took to arbitration, the team involved will be allowed to choose the duration of the contract awarded. They can choose either one or two years, unless the player is only one year away from unrestricted free agency, at which point only a one-year deal is available.
Here we’ll keep track of all the hearings still on the books and the figures submitted. This page will be updated as the numbers come in:
July 20:
Brock McGinn, Carolina Hurricanes – Team: $1.75MM AAV, Player: $2.7MM AAV
Settled: Two years, $2.1MM AAV
July 21:
Andrew Copp, Winnipeg Jets – Team: $1.5MM AAV, Player: $2.9MM AAV
Awarded: Two years, $2.28MM AAV
July 22:
MacKenzie Weegar, Florida Panthers
Settled: One year, $1.6MM AAV
Zach Aston-Reese, Pittsburgh Penguins
Settled: Two years, $1.0MM AAV
Ville Husso, St. Louis Blues (team-elected)
Settled: One year, two-way, $700K AAV
Christian Djoos, Washington Capitals – Team: $800K, Player: $1.9MM
Awarded: One year, $1.25MM AAV
July 23:
Evan Rodrigues, Buffalo Sabres – Team: $1.5MM, Player: $2.65MM
Awarded: One year, $2.0MM AAV
July 24:
Oskar Sundqvist, St. Louis Blues
Settled: Four years, $2.75MM AAV
Neal Pionk, Winnipeg Jets
Settled: Two years, $3.0MM AAV
July 26:
Colton Sissons, Nashville Predators
Settled: Seven years, $2.86MM AAV
July 27:
Sam Bennett, Calgary Flames
Settled: Two years, $2.55MM AAV
July 28:
Mirco Mueller, New Jersey Devils
Settled: One year, $1.4MM AAV
July 29:
David Rittich, Calgary Flames
Settled: Two years, $2.75MM AAV
Pavel Buchnevich, New York Rangers
Settled: Two years, $3.25MM AAV
August 1:
Remi Elie, Buffalo Sabres
Settled: One year, two-way $700K AAV
Chandler Stephenson, Washington Capitals
Settled: One year, $1.05MM
August 2:
Linus Ullmark, Buffalo Sabres – Team: $800K, Player: $2.65MM
Settled: One year, $1.33MM
Will Butcher, New Jersey Devils
Settled: Three years, $3.73MM AAV
August 4:
Jake McCabe, Buffalo Sabres – Team: 1.95MM, Player: $4.3MM
Settled: Two years, $2.85MM AAV
Anton Forsberg, Carolina Hurricanes – Team: $700K/$70K, Player: $833K
Awarded: One year, $775K AAV
Sheldon Dries, Colorado Avalanche
Settled: One year, two-way $735K AAV
Rocco Grimaldi, Nashville Predators – Team: $700K/$70K, Player $1.275MM
Awarded: One year, $1MM
Joel Edmundson, St. Louis Blues – Team: $2.3MM, Player $4.2MM
Awarded: One year, $3.1MM
Poll: Which Young Free Agent Is Worth A Flier?
More than a month into free agency, most teams left scouring the open market are looking to take a chance on an affordable option with the potential, however slim, to make a difference at the NHL level. While some veterans can be willing to take a discount to continue their careers, they tend to be known commodities whose ceilings are capped at a certain level. More often, the better risk is to invest in a young player, who perhaps didn’t have the right opportunity of fit in their last locale and still have the ability to break out. The youngest members of the unrestricted free agent market are those former restricted free agents who did not receive qualifying offers. Eight such players are still available, including many familiar names. Which one would you most like your team to take a look at?
Ben Hutton, 26, was arguably the biggest surprise among non-qualified players and it is even more of a shock that he remains available. Hutton was a top-four regular for the Vancouver Canucks last season – the past four seasons really – logging more than 22 minutes per night and recording 20 points in 69 games. Hutton also recorded a career-high in hits and his third season of more than 100 blocked shots. However, Hutton was a key piece of a Canucks defense corps that simply wasn’t very good at their main job: preventing goals. Hutton had a team worst -23 rating and Vancouver was unwilling to qualify him at $2.8MM, especially as they set their sights on a long-term contract for Tyler Myers. Hutton could certainly play a regular role again for a number of NHL teams, but a “flier” for the UMaine product would really be more of a multi-year deal worth $2MM or more per year. That’s a significant investment for a player that still has to prove he can be a consistent positive contributor.
Fredrik Claesson, 26, played in just 37 games for the New York Rangers this past season, but in that limited action did average more than 17 minutes of ice time per night and added six points. The Swedish rearguard also finished third-best on the team with a +3 rating. Claesson would have been better served spending some time in the AHL as well last season, rather than watching 45 games from the press box, but the lack of immediate interest in him this off-season suggest that whichever team takes a chance on him likely doesn’t need to worry about his waivers viability. Claesson could be an asset as a very capable defensive blue liner who can mentor others at the AHL and also play a competent game as an NHL depth option. In the right situation, he could even hold down a regular role on a third pairing. Claesson only made $700K last season, so a minimum deal should be all he’s expecting.
Joe Morrow, 26, has never stuck around long enough to earn a regular role on a team. Traded twice before he even made his NHL debut, Morrow was buried in Boston for several years before hitting free agency for the first time two years ago at just 24, when the Bruins opted not to extend a qualifying offer. Morrow signed in Montreal and was well on his way to his first season of 41+ NHL appearances when he was dealt to the Winnipeg Jets at the trade deadline. Fortunately, instead of playing a depth role, Morrow won a starting job and played well in 18 games down the stretch, totaling 56 games and 16 points on the year. Finally, he was expected to at least have a fighting chance at a regular role this past season in Winnipeg. The team gave him that chance, 41 games to be exact, and he disappointed, recording just seven points and earning less than 14 minutes of ice time. Morrow is still a good puck-moving defenseman, but some of the allure of the “what if he was given a fair shake” has worn off. For now, Morrow is simply a depth defenseman who can be a nice NHL substitute, but perhaps there is still a chance the former first-rounder can take advantage of an injury and put up some points.
Tobias Rieder, 26, might be the most recognizable name on this list and certainly the most accomplished forward. Rieder was a budding star early in his career, posting double-digit goals in each of his first four seasons, including a 37-point sophomore campaign. All of this came with the Arizona Coyotes, but when the ‘Yotes traded Rieder midway through the 2017-18 season, things began to fall apart. Rieder disappointed in L.A., recording just six points down the stretch and zero in a first-round sweep, leading to the Kings not qualifying him last off-season. The Edmonton Oilers took a flier on Rieder, and as could happen with any of these players next season, it just didn’t pan out. Rieder failed to score a goal all season long and finished with just 11 assists in 67 games. The German winger bet on himself as well, signing a one-year, $2MM deal, but due to his poor results, Rieder will have to again take a one-year deal for even less this time to stay in the NHL. However, when it comes to upside, a 26-year-old with multiple successful scoring seasons on his resume, not to mention a strong two-way game, certainly brings some intrigue.
Dmitrij Jaskin, 26, was not prepared for what happened to him last season. Jaskin, who made his NHL debut as a teenage in 2012-13, was entering his seventh season with the St. Louis Blues. Jaskin had just completed a career-high 76-game season the year prior, contributing 17 points and a whopping 207 hits as an effective fourth-liner for St. Louis. Yet, the Blue placed him on waiver before last season began, and Jaskin was scooped up by the Washington Capitals. The Capitals used him sparingly, as the Russian winger saw his games played, ice time, and points all drop to their lowest in his five years as an NHL regular. Washington then opted not to qualify Jaskin at $1.1MM, even though their usage of him was largely the cause of his down season. Jaskin is arguably still worth around that much, as he could be a very capable checking line forward given his big frame and his experience using it. Jaskin’s ceiling might be limited offensively, but he could nevertheless be a value addition as a depth option for many teams.
Stefan Noesen, 26, seemed like he had found the perfect fit with the New Jersey Devils. The Anaheim Ducks lost Noesen to the Devils on waivers during the 2016-17 season and he proceeded to record eight points in 32 games the rest of the way after registering just two points in 14 NHL games over the past three seasons combined. Noesen then broke out the following year, earning a starting role with the Devils to the tune of 13 goals, 27 points, and +12 rating in 72 games. So what was the encore performance this past season? Eight points and -19 rating in 41 points, as the wheels fell off entirely for Noesen. The Devils decided to move on and now Noesen is left wondering what his NHL role can be moving forward. His 27-point campaign seems like the exception rather than the rule, and while his two-way game has impressed, he has not earned the opportunity to show that his even strength ability can also be used to kill penalties, which further limits his value. The question of what Noesen can really bring to the table explains why he’s still available, but also makes him an interesting target, especially at what has to be far from his $1.725MM salary from last season. A team that thinks they have Noesen figured out and can sign him to a minimum contract could be in for a surprising return.
Rourke Chartier, 23, was one of the more surprising players not to receive a qualifying offer, as the young forward just wrapped up his entry-level contract. The San Jose Sharks were unwilling to offer Chartier a qualifying offer that would have only been marginally higher than the league’s $700K minimum salary, and it would have been a two-way offer at that. San Jose apparently was not thrilled with the 2014 fifth-round pick, who made his NHL debut this past season, but recorded one lone point in 18 games. Chartier did register 18 points in 26 AHL games this year and as been a consistent contributor at the minor league level. However, there are concerns about whether the offensive upside that Chartier displayed as a junior player can translate to the pros. Chartier may be a total wild card at this point, but he is young enough and affordable enough to be a decent gamble for some team who believes in his potential.
Marko Dano, 24, rounds out the group. A first-round pick in 2013 out of Slovakia, Dano has immense ability, but has struggled to put it all together. As a rookie with the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2014-15, Dano contributed 21 points in just 35 games and looked like he was well on his way to becoming a top-six NHL forward. In fact, Columbus parlayed his strong first season into using him as a key piece in the (first) Brandon Saad trade. With the Chicago Blackhawks, Dano put up good numbers in the AHL but was not given much opportunity in the NHL and was traded after less than a year to the Winnipeg Jets. Dano looked like an immediate fit in Winnipeg, recording eight points in 21 games down the stretch of his sophomore season. Yet, in the three years since, Dano has just 14 points in 69 NHL games. This past season, he was placed on waivers and claimed by the Colorado Avalanche; the Avs put him back on waivers a month later after he had been held scoreless in eight games. The Jets brought Dano back in, but kept him in the AHL for the remainder of the year – where he again showed great offensive ability – before opting not to extend a qualifying offer. Four NHL teams have now taken a look at Dano in his young career and have passed. Although his ability is obvious, it’s fair to question whether teams still believe that Dano can figure out how to put it to use at the NHL level. Is a minimum contract worth answering that question though?
Of these eight players, which one is most worthy of an investment? Is it the more established, but more expensive veteran? The serviceable depth option? Or the unproven, but intriguing gamble? You choose which of these players you would like your favorite team to take a chance on, based on value and upside.
Which Young Free Agent Is Worth A Flier?
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Ben Hutton 39% (514)
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Marko Dano 20% (261)
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Tobias Rieder 13% (178)
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Dmitrij Jaskin 9% (116)
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Joe Morrow 5% (72)
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Fredrik Claesson 5% (65)
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Stefan Noesen 5% (62)
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Rourke Chartier 4% (51)
Total votes: 1,319
Free Agent Profile: Jason Pominville
While Jason Pominville’s best days are certainly behind him, the winger has continued to be relatively productive in recent years. Despite that, he’s still looking for a new contract more than a month into free agency.
Although his ice time dipped considerably last season to just 12:28 per game, the 36-year-old still managed to score 16 goals for the second straight campaign and all but two of his 31 points came at even strength. That makes him one of the better five-on-five players that’s still available on the open market and while his days of being a top liner are gone, affordable secondary scoring is something that will be in demand in the weeks leading up to training camp.
Of course, there are some concerns to his play. He’s not the best two-way player, nor is he the fastest skater and given his age, Pominville doesn’t have much time left in his career. As a result, he’s not going to be a fit in a top-six while teams that run a bottom-six group that’s counted on to be defensively responsible probably won’t show much interest either. Nonetheless, given his track record of production, the veteran should have some suitors.
Potential Suitors
Teams in a few different situations could have interest. A veteran team looking for some extra scoring help in the bottom six could have a use for Pominville, as could a team that’s tight to the cap but is looking to add some extra depth. On the flip side, even a rebuilding team could view him as a capable placeholder to allow a prospect more time in the minors to develop with an eye on potentially flipping him at the trade deadline.
In the East, a return to Buffalo doesn’t appear to be likely given their cap situation. Pittsburgh would be a potential fit if they wind up shipping out a bigger contract to free up enough room to re-sign defenseman Marcus Pettersson. He’d play primarily in a lower role with them but has the offensive acumen to hold his own when moving up in the lineup. If Justin Williams opts to not return to Carolina, Pominville could be a reasonable fit instead, albeit in a lesser role. The Islanders are lacking some offense in their bottom six; although that is by design to some degree, having someone like Pominville would at least give them a bit more versatility.
Out West, Arizona has been on the lookout for more offensive depth which would make Pominville a potential fit. However, they’d have to go into LTIR to sign him (Marian Hossa’s deal still has two years left) which could be a concern if they believe Clayton Keller can reach some of his performance bonuses. Dallas had an issue with secondary scoring last season (Pominville’s goal total would have been fourth on the team) and while they’ve improved their forward group, more scoring depth would certainly be welcome. Chicago could still have a bit of cap room left over once they re-sign Brendan Perlini and Pominville would give GM Stan Bowman some extra insurance in case some of his prospects need more development time.
Projected Contract
Pominville is heading for a significant pay cut. He made $5MM in salary last season ($5.6MM cap hit) and he’s probably not going to even get half of that on his next deal. Getting one-third of that price point is the likelier scenario. A one-year deal is a certainty which allows for the possibility of performance incentives which would make him a bit more intriguing to a cap-strapped squad. A base salary around the $1MM mark with a chance to come close to doubling that in games played and production bonuses is something that a lot of teams could afford and could wind up providing a bit of value as well. With the current state of the UFA market, it’s hard to see Pominville getting much more than that.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agency Rumors: Bargains, Brassard, Upshall
NHL free agency is more than a month old, yet still chock full of value. In fact, the Athletic’s Jonathan Willis calls it the strongest August unrestricted free agent class that he has seen in over a decade. So how many of these notable names can expect to find NHL employment before next season? Willis broke down the group of unsigned players, listing five centers, six left wings, four right wings, four left-shot defensemen, four right-shot defensemen, and zero goaltenders that he feels certain still deserve a role in the league. Many of those are distinguished veterans who will comes as no surprise, names like Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Justin Williams, Derick Brassard, Patrick Maroon, Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville, Brian Boyle, and Ben Lovejoy, for example. Others are simply role players at this point in their career, having failed to show the upside needed to be an impact contributor, such as Riley Sheahan, Tobias Rieder, Magnus Paajarvi, Dmitrij Jaskin, Ben Hutton, Joe Morrow, and Fredrik Claesson, to name a few. However, the most intriguing names, pointed out by Willis as possible targets for bargain hunters at this point in the off-season, include Jake Gardiner, Kevin Shattenkirk, Oscar Lindberg, Valeri Nichushkin, and Alex Petrovic. Willis believes each one has a high ceiling and has more to give an NHL team than the rest of the list, aside from some of the top veterans. Some of those analyzed by Willis who he didn’t feel were necessarily worthy of another NHL contract? Jamie McGinn, Micheal Haley, Cody McLeod, Zac Rinaldo, Devante Smith-Pelly, Drew Stafford, Andrew MacDonald, David Schlemko, Adam McQuaid, and Cam Ward.
- One of the aforementioned names, Derick Brassard, may be closest to finding a new home. The Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins has confirmed the Edmonton Oilers’ interest in the veteran center, as they currently have a hole down the middle on their third line. This is hardly the first time that Brassard’s name has been linked to the Oilers, but it is the first time details have emerged. Leavins reports that Brassard is seeking upwards of $4MM AAV on his next contract, which is beyond what Edmonton is willing to pay. They have fair reason to avoid that salary too, as Brassard is coming off the worst season of his career, a 23-point campaign split between the Pittsburgh Penguins, Florida Panthers, and Colorado Avalanche. Approaching 32 years old and already showing signs of decline over the past few years, Brassard will be hard-pressed to get $4MM from any team, never mind the cap-strapped Oilers. Leavins mentioned that the Montreal Canadiens also have interest in Brassard, but the two teams are unlikely to engage in a bidding war. If the Oilers are already in talks with Brassard, they stand a good chance to land him at a fair price, even if it takes another few weeks to move him to a reasonable asking price.
- Leavins also notes that Scottie Upshall is hoping to throw his hat back into the ring for NHL consideration this summer. Upshall joined the Oilers in training camp on a PTO last fall, only to suffer a serious lower-body injury and to be cut from camp. Leavins notes that he has been rehabbing for the past nine months and feels he is ready for a comeback. The market for Upshall certainly won’t be overwhelming – he was on a PTO last year and is now a year older and coming off a major injury – but there’s reason to think he still has value and could earn another training camp invite. Upshall has had his struggles with both injuries and consistency throughout his 15-year NHL career, but the journeyman forward has cracked 30 points five different times and is an established two-way contributor and penalty killer. His last full season with the St. Louis Blues in 2017-18, Upshall played a regular role on the team’s fourth line, albeit missing 19 games, and was on a full-season pace for 25 points and a career-high 155 hits. If Upshall really is back at full strength, it’s fair to assume that some teams may have interest in his veteran presence and energy role, especially if they can also assume a 20-30 point season on a minimum contract.
Free Agent Profile: Cam Ward
Since the unrestricted free agency rush of July 1st subsided, just two NHL goaltenders have been signed off the open market: Anthony Stolarz with the Anaheim Ducks and Jared Coreau with the New York Islanders. That’s two goalie signings in 33 days, making it easily the quietest position of this off-season, despite a major re-shuffling of UFA starters early on and several RFA extensions as well.
Unsurprisingly, several notable names remain available – Scott Darling, Chad Johnson, Mike McKenna, Al Montoya – while Michal Neuvirth has already accepted a PTO. However, one name sticks out above the rest for both his career accomplishments and his meaningful role in 2018-19.
Cam Ward, 35, ventured outside of Carolina last season for the first time in his 14-year NHL career. Ward signed a one-year, $3MM contract with the Chicago Blackhawks last summer and proceeded to play a major tole for the team this past season. Dealing with ongoing issues with starter Corey Crawford, Ward ended up playing in 33 games to Crawford’s 39 and Collin Delia‘s 16. Although Ward’s .897 save percentage and 3.67 GAA were the worst among the trio, it was only a marginal gap. The Blackhawks struggled defensively and no goalie was safe, as all three finished with a save percentage below .910 and GAA above 2.90.
Still, Ward cannot have been happy with his results last year. A Stanley Cup winner and former All-Star, Ward was rock solid for the Hurricanes for several years. He thrived early on as a workhorse, including a 2010-11 campaign in which he posted a career-high .923 save percentage in a league-best 74 appearances. He then settled nicely into a timeshare role, posting back-to-back seasons with a 2.40 GAA while playing in around 50 games each year from 2014 to 2016. Even as he continued to age and his numbers slipped slightly, no one could have predicted his pedestrian performance last season. It was a sharp decline from his career numbers that could have been an outlier or could be signaling the end of his career.
One thing that is certainly working against Ward finding work this off-season is the now well-established narrative that he does not play well as a backup. Over his career, Ward has played in four seasons, including last year in Chicago, in which he did not make at least half of his team’s starts. In those three seasons combined, Ward is 49-38-13, with a a save percentage of .895 and a GAA of 3.37. In all of his other seasons combined, Ward has a record of 285-218-75, with a save percentage of .911 and a GAA of 2.63. It is extremely clear that Ward does his best work with regular appearances and any team looking to make the most of signing him will want to offer that opportunity. But does such a landing spot exist?
Potential Suitors
The honest answer is that the team likely to sign Ward, if any, isn’t aware of the need just yet. Ward could very well be a veteran option that a team turns to in case of injury or poor performance that can be a temporary starter. While it’s impossible to project injuries, the New York Rangers have a starter who is even older than Ward and have very little depth behind him. A Henrik Lundqvist injury could certainly turn the Blueshirts on to Ward as an option to step in at starter during a season that brings high expectations to New York. The same could be said for the Vegas Golden Knights, whose 34-year-old starter Marc-Andre Fleury has dealt with injury issues before. Vegas is in better shape with their depth in net and could handle a short absence from Fleury, but without a proven NHL goalie elsewhere on the depth chart, a long-term injury could send them on the hunt for a solution. Despite having both John Gibson and Ryan Miller, the Anaheim Ducks are far from safe when it comes to injury risk and could be an option for Ward if disaster strikes. The Philadelphia Flyers shuffled through goalies like no other team in NHL history last year, so another issue with Brian Elliott could easily have the Flyers intrigued in Ward.
As for teams who risk needing a starter due to poor play, no team jumps out more than the Columbus Blue Jackets. It’s perhaps even fair to call them the most likely landing spot for Ward, as they are sure to go through some bumpy times with their young tandem of former backup Joonas Korpisalo and unproven import Elvis Merzlikins. The team only has more untested foreign talent in the minors as well. The Blue Jackets have ample cap space, so if there was a bidding war for Ward at any point, Columbus would be the favorite to beat out any other team in need of an emergency starter.
If Ward is intent on signing before the season begins though, rather than wait for a need-based market to develop in-season, there are a couple of teams who could still be looking for a backup. Again, that isn’t the ideal role for Ward, but it is one that the respected veteran would likely be willing to try his hand at again. The Florida Panthers spent big on Sergei Bobrovsky this summer, but 22-year-old Samuel Montembeault is slated to be the primary backup heading into next year. He is waiver-exempt still and could head to the AHL without issue if the team opted to look at a veteran backup. However, this doesn’t seem extremely likely, considering their investment in Bobrovsky, who they likely expect to make 65 starts. In Colorado, the Avalanche seemed hesitant to give last year’s third-string, Pavel Francouz, an extended look despite strong numbers in the NHL and AHL. He is now the likely backup to Philipp Grubauer, who himself is still finding his footing as a true starter. The Avs have almost no depth in net and could look to add another name to the mix in Ward.
Projected Contract
Ward has made at least $3MM in each of the past four seasons and more than $6MM on the contract prior to that. Those days are now over. Regardless of the impact that his role or the team’s defense had on his 2018-19 performance in Chicago, Ward has lost his leverage to command a sizable salary after such a poor season. If he is settling in to a backup role before the season, he will almost certainly land somewhere between $1MM and the league minimum of $700K. If he is signing mid-season to take over as a starter or at least in a timeshare, that number could go up, but not much higher. If Ward feels like he has several years left, he will be looking at this season as an investment in future earnings; he will accept a cheap deal to go to the right place where there is the potential to succeed, so as to hit the market next summer with some more bargaining power. The only question is whether that right fit exists, now or down the road after the season begins. Ward could call it a career if no such opportunities arise by the end of the calendar year.
Hurricanes Notes: Williams, van Riemsdyk, Forsberg
Now one month into free agency, the top scorer left on the unrestricted free agent market is Carolina Hurricanes veteran Justin Williams. After Hurricanes GM Don Waddell spoke with the media today, The Raleigh News & Observer’s Chip Alexander writes that it is Carolina waiting on Williams and not the other way around. The 37-year-old is reportedly still weighing whether or not he wants to return for a 19th NHL season. However, Waddell indicated that Williams is at least leaning toward another year. The decision is not based on finances either, but rather just on whether Williams is physically up for another season. In fact, Waddell stated that the two sides have not talked contract terms at all, but is confident that a deal can be figured out despite the team’s lacking salary cap space. The Hurricane have just under $2.5MM open, but CapFriendly’s projection includes 23 players and Williams’ addition would bump another forward down to AHL Charlotte, meaning there’s slightly more space than it would appear. Waddell noted that an incentive-laden contract would allow the team to maneuver around the cap to fit Williams in. Williams is expected to be in Raleigh next week, likely with his decision made, so expect an announcement, one way or another, in short order. Given that he posted his highest point total since 2011-12 last season, it’s safe to assume that the respected veteran is not done just yet.
- Alexander also relays from Waddell some news on injured defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk. Despite early reports that van Riemsdyk could miss the beginning of the regular season, Waddell stated that he has already resumed skating. TVR suffered a serious shoulder injury in the postseason and went under the knife in early May. At the time, he was give a four-to-six month recover period that would have extended into November in the worst case scenario. Instead, he is clearly rehabbing well and is back on the ice after just three months. Waddell did warn that van Riemsdyk could be held out of contract drills early in training camp, but it certainly seems like the start of the regular season in October is well within his reach. Waddell added that forward Jordan Martinook is also doing well in his recovery from core surgery in late May.
- The Hurricanes’ front office is keeping busy still at this point in the summer, with a possible Willams negotiation still to come and ongoing talks with restricted free agents Saku Maenalanen, Trevor Carrick, Roland McKeown, and Anton Forsberg. The latter is new to the organization, coming over from the Chicago Blackhawks in the Calvin de Haan trade. The goaltender may get a rough start to his tenure in Carolina, as he is currently slated for a salary arbitration hearing on Sunday. The 26-year-old Forsberg is currently expected to play behind Petr Mrazek and fellow new addition James Reimer, as well as possibly top goalie prospect Alex Nedeljkovic. The Hurricanes are likely willing to go through arbitration with Forsberg to argue for a two-way contract, so as to avoid paying an NHL salary to a player who is likely to be buried in the minor leagues next season. Forsberg, who did not make an NHL appearance last season, is still likely to argue that not only does he deserve a one-way contract, but he deserves a raise on his previous $750K salary, given his NHL experience and stout AHL numbers.
- There is of course a chance that Forsberg could win the backup role behind Mrazek in training camp, as could Nedeljkovic. However, one of the key evaluators in that position battle is not yet in place. After goaltending coach Mike Bales resigned from his post in June to join the Buffalo Sabres, the Hurricanes have been on the hunt for his replacement. While a replacement has yet to be named, the announcement is imminent. Alexander writes that Waddell said the team is “close” to hiring a new goalie coach. Whoever that man is will play a key role in sorting through an intriguing situation in net, one that is unlikely to be completely decided in training camp alone.
Free Agent Profile: Patrick Marleau
It has been an interesting couple of years for veteran winger Patrick Marleau. It was only a couple of summers ago where the idea of him leaving San Jose seemed rather unrealistic but after they wouldn’t offer a third year on his contract, he was on his way to Toronto. Now, with the Maple Leafs paying Carolina a first-round pick to buy out that third year, he’s back on the open market once again.
After three straight campaigns of 25 goals or more, the 39-year-old showed some signs of slowing down last season but still managed to post a respectable 16 goals and 21 assists while extending his streak of years that he played in every game to ten straight. While 37 points isn’t a great return on what was a $6.25MM cap hit, the fact that Marleau can now be signed for cheaper than that should help him garner a fair bit of interest on the open market.
Of course, Marleau’s case is a little different than most. He hasn’t exactly hidden his desire to return to the West Coast and didn’t appear to give a whole lot of thought towards actually playing for Carolina, something GM Don Waddell did try to talk him into doing. Considering they made the Conference Final last season, that would have been a relatively compelling case. As a result, his market is a lot more restricted than it is for many of the other players that are still in need of a new contract.
Potential Suitors
Let’s get the obvious one out of the way first. There’s no denying that he’d like to go back to San Jose, the place he spent the first 19 years of his career. He’d slot in nicely in a third line role with the capability to move up from time to time when injuries arise. However, cap space could be a bit of a concern for the Sharks; while they have roughly $4.6MM in cap room per CapFriendly, they’re also still interested in retaining veteran center Joe Thornton as well. Signing Thornton wouldn’t leave a lot of room to fit Marleau in.
The Kings had trade discussions with Toronto before the draft about taking on Marleau’s deal but nothing came of it. Now with a chance to bring him in at a much cheaper price, they could circle back. However, he may not be the best of potential trade assets as he’d likely be looking for trade protection.
Arizona, another team in the West, could also benefit from someone like Marleau as they look to add offense to a team that struggled to score last season. They’re fairly tight to the cap as it is and would have to dip into offseason LTIR for Marian Hossa if they were to sign him though.
Projected Contract
If Marleau was open to signing with more than just a handful of teams, he’d be an intriguing free agent and could land a reasonable one-year deal. However, with such a limited market, it’s safe to say he’ll be signing for closer to the league minimum than what his previous deal was. Back in June, we projected a one-year, $900K deal plus $1MM in performance bonuses when we ranked him 31st in our Top 50 UFA list. That’s still about the right contract for him as if he winds up with a cap-strapped team, the bonus structure would at least allow them to potentially defer the cap hit on those for next season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Latest On Jake Gardiner
While most of the top players in unrestricted free agency signed quickly, that has not been the case for Jake Gardiner. While he was viewed as arguably the top defenseman available (once Erik Karlsson re-signed with San Jose in June), his market has seemingly been slow to develop.
In an appearance on his podcast for TalkNorth (audio link), Michael Russo of The Athletic provided an update on Gardiner’s situation. Beyond his initial asking price, some teams were concerned over the fact that he opted to not have surgery to fix his back issue, instead opting for rest and rehab. Knowing that the potential exists for him to eventually need to go under the knife is a possible red flag when you’re pondering committing a long-term deal.
Nonetheless, he reports that Gardiner may already know his next destination, suggesting that there is handshake deal in place at this time. However, the team signing him needs to make a trade (likely a high-priced defender) in order to clear out the cap space to move him.
While he’s coming off of a down season offensively that saw him record just three goals, he’s only one year removed from recording 52 points and as we’ve seen, players that are capable of putting up that type of production are getting big contracts. Accordingly, our projection for him before free agency opened up was a five-year, $32MM deal, a sizable raise on his previous contract worth $4.05MM.
Although it’s easy to say that all a team needs to do is clear out a sizable contract to make room for him, it’s often trickier to actually pull it off. Quite a few teams are already over the Upper Limit (or project to be over once they fill out their roster) and there are only so many teams with the budget space and willingness to take on a big-ticket deal. On the flip side, defensemen are often in demand so there may be more trade options compared to a team trying to move out a forward.
While Gardiner may be holding up the rest of the UFA defense market, it appears there could be a resolution in place already. Now it’s just a matter of waiting to see if the signing team can find a way to clear out a contract. Considering the slow-moving market when it comes to freeing up money, it may still be a little while yet before the 29-year-old puts pen to paper on his next deal.