Free Agency Rumors: Bargains, Brassard, Upshall
NHL free agency is more than a month old, yet still chock full of value. In fact, the Athletic’s Jonathan Willis calls it the strongest August unrestricted free agent class that he has seen in over a decade. So how many of these notable names can expect to find NHL employment before next season? Willis broke down the group of unsigned players, listing five centers, six left wings, four right wings, four left-shot defensemen, four right-shot defensemen, and zero goaltenders that he feels certain still deserve a role in the league. Many of those are distinguished veterans who will comes as no surprise, names like Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Justin Williams, Derick Brassard, Patrick Maroon, Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville, Brian Boyle, and Ben Lovejoy, for example. Others are simply role players at this point in their career, having failed to show the upside needed to be an impact contributor, such as Riley Sheahan, Tobias Rieder, Magnus Paajarvi, Dmitrij Jaskin, Ben Hutton, Joe Morrow, and Fredrik Claesson, to name a few. However, the most intriguing names, pointed out by Willis as possible targets for bargain hunters at this point in the off-season, include Jake Gardiner, Kevin Shattenkirk, Oscar Lindberg, Valeri Nichushkin, and Alex Petrovic. Willis believes each one has a high ceiling and has more to give an NHL team than the rest of the list, aside from some of the top veterans. Some of those analyzed by Willis who he didn’t feel were necessarily worthy of another NHL contract? Jamie McGinn, Micheal Haley, Cody McLeod, Zac Rinaldo, Devante Smith-Pelly, Drew Stafford, Andrew MacDonald, David Schlemko, Adam McQuaid, and Cam Ward.
- One of the aforementioned names, Derick Brassard, may be closest to finding a new home. The Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins has confirmed the Edmonton Oilers’ interest in the veteran center, as they currently have a hole down the middle on their third line. This is hardly the first time that Brassard’s name has been linked to the Oilers, but it is the first time details have emerged. Leavins reports that Brassard is seeking upwards of $4MM AAV on his next contract, which is beyond what Edmonton is willing to pay. They have fair reason to avoid that salary too, as Brassard is coming off the worst season of his career, a 23-point campaign split between the Pittsburgh Penguins, Florida Panthers, and Colorado Avalanche. Approaching 32 years old and already showing signs of decline over the past few years, Brassard will be hard-pressed to get $4MM from any team, never mind the cap-strapped Oilers. Leavins mentioned that the Montreal Canadiens also have interest in Brassard, but the two teams are unlikely to engage in a bidding war. If the Oilers are already in talks with Brassard, they stand a good chance to land him at a fair price, even if it takes another few weeks to move him to a reasonable asking price.
- Leavins also notes that Scottie Upshall is hoping to throw his hat back into the ring for NHL consideration this summer. Upshall joined the Oilers in training camp on a PTO last fall, only to suffer a serious lower-body injury and to be cut from camp. Leavins notes that he has been rehabbing for the past nine months and feels he is ready for a comeback. The market for Upshall certainly won’t be overwhelming – he was on a PTO last year and is now a year older and coming off a major injury – but there’s reason to think he still has value and could earn another training camp invite. Upshall has had his struggles with both injuries and consistency throughout his 15-year NHL career, but the journeyman forward has cracked 30 points five different times and is an established two-way contributor and penalty killer. His last full season with the St. Louis Blues in 2017-18, Upshall played a regular role on the team’s fourth line, albeit missing 19 games, and was on a full-season pace for 25 points and a career-high 155 hits. If Upshall really is back at full strength, it’s fair to assume that some teams may have interest in his veteran presence and energy role, especially if they can also assume a 20-30 point season on a minimum contract.
Free Agent Profile: Cam Ward
Since the unrestricted free agency rush of July 1st subsided, just two NHL goaltenders have been signed off the open market: Anthony Stolarz with the Anaheim Ducks and Jared Coreau with the New York Islanders. That’s two goalie signings in 33 days, making it easily the quietest position of this off-season, despite a major re-shuffling of UFA starters early on and several RFA extensions as well.
Unsurprisingly, several notable names remain available – Scott Darling, Chad Johnson, Mike McKenna, Al Montoya – while Michal Neuvirth has already accepted a PTO. However, one name sticks out above the rest for both his career accomplishments and his meaningful role in 2018-19.
Cam Ward, 35, ventured outside of Carolina last season for the first time in his 14-year NHL career. Ward signed a one-year, $3MM contract with the Chicago Blackhawks last summer and proceeded to play a major tole for the team this past season. Dealing with ongoing issues with starter Corey Crawford, Ward ended up playing in 33 games to Crawford’s 39 and Collin Delia‘s 16. Although Ward’s .897 save percentage and 3.67 GAA were the worst among the trio, it was only a marginal gap. The Blackhawks struggled defensively and no goalie was safe, as all three finished with a save percentage below .910 and GAA above 2.90.
Still, Ward cannot have been happy with his results last year. A Stanley Cup winner and former All-Star, Ward was rock solid for the Hurricanes for several years. He thrived early on as a workhorse, including a 2010-11 campaign in which he posted a career-high .923 save percentage in a league-best 74 appearances. He then settled nicely into a timeshare role, posting back-to-back seasons with a 2.40 GAA while playing in around 50 games each year from 2014 to 2016. Even as he continued to age and his numbers slipped slightly, no one could have predicted his pedestrian performance last season. It was a sharp decline from his career numbers that could have been an outlier or could be signaling the end of his career.
One thing that is certainly working against Ward finding work this off-season is the now well-established narrative that he does not play well as a backup. Over his career, Ward has played in four seasons, including last year in Chicago, in which he did not make at least half of his team’s starts. In those three seasons combined, Ward is 49-38-13, with a a save percentage of .895 and a GAA of 3.37. In all of his other seasons combined, Ward has a record of 285-218-75, with a save percentage of .911 and a GAA of 2.63. It is extremely clear that Ward does his best work with regular appearances and any team looking to make the most of signing him will want to offer that opportunity. But does such a landing spot exist?
Potential Suitors
The honest answer is that the team likely to sign Ward, if any, isn’t aware of the need just yet. Ward could very well be a veteran option that a team turns to in case of injury or poor performance that can be a temporary starter. While it’s impossible to project injuries, the New York Rangers have a starter who is even older than Ward and have very little depth behind him. A Henrik Lundqvist injury could certainly turn the Blueshirts on to Ward as an option to step in at starter during a season that brings high expectations to New York. The same could be said for the Vegas Golden Knights, whose 34-year-old starter Marc-Andre Fleury has dealt with injury issues before. Vegas is in better shape with their depth in net and could handle a short absence from Fleury, but without a proven NHL goalie elsewhere on the depth chart, a long-term injury could send them on the hunt for a solution. Despite having both John Gibson and Ryan Miller, the Anaheim Ducks are far from safe when it comes to injury risk and could be an option for Ward if disaster strikes. The Philadelphia Flyers shuffled through goalies like no other team in NHL history last year, so another issue with Brian Elliott could easily have the Flyers intrigued in Ward.
As for teams who risk needing a starter due to poor play, no team jumps out more than the Columbus Blue Jackets. It’s perhaps even fair to call them the most likely landing spot for Ward, as they are sure to go through some bumpy times with their young tandem of former backup Joonas Korpisalo and unproven import Elvis Merzlikins. The team only has more untested foreign talent in the minors as well. The Blue Jackets have ample cap space, so if there was a bidding war for Ward at any point, Columbus would be the favorite to beat out any other team in need of an emergency starter.
If Ward is intent on signing before the season begins though, rather than wait for a need-based market to develop in-season, there are a couple of teams who could still be looking for a backup. Again, that isn’t the ideal role for Ward, but it is one that the respected veteran would likely be willing to try his hand at again. The Florida Panthers spent big on Sergei Bobrovsky this summer, but 22-year-old Samuel Montembeault is slated to be the primary backup heading into next year. He is waiver-exempt still and could head to the AHL without issue if the team opted to look at a veteran backup. However, this doesn’t seem extremely likely, considering their investment in Bobrovsky, who they likely expect to make 65 starts. In Colorado, the Avalanche seemed hesitant to give last year’s third-string, Pavel Francouz, an extended look despite strong numbers in the NHL and AHL. He is now the likely backup to Philipp Grubauer, who himself is still finding his footing as a true starter. The Avs have almost no depth in net and could look to add another name to the mix in Ward.
Projected Contract
Ward has made at least $3MM in each of the past four seasons and more than $6MM on the contract prior to that. Those days are now over. Regardless of the impact that his role or the team’s defense had on his 2018-19 performance in Chicago, Ward has lost his leverage to command a sizable salary after such a poor season. If he is settling in to a backup role before the season, he will almost certainly land somewhere between $1MM and the league minimum of $700K. If he is signing mid-season to take over as a starter or at least in a timeshare, that number could go up, but not much higher. If Ward feels like he has several years left, he will be looking at this season as an investment in future earnings; he will accept a cheap deal to go to the right place where there is the potential to succeed, so as to hit the market next summer with some more bargaining power. The only question is whether that right fit exists, now or down the road after the season begins. Ward could call it a career if no such opportunities arise by the end of the calendar year.
Hurricanes Notes: Williams, van Riemsdyk, Forsberg
Now one month into free agency, the top scorer left on the unrestricted free agent market is Carolina Hurricanes veteran Justin Williams. After Hurricanes GM Don Waddell spoke with the media today, The Raleigh News & Observer’s Chip Alexander writes that it is Carolina waiting on Williams and not the other way around. The 37-year-old is reportedly still weighing whether or not he wants to return for a 19th NHL season. However, Waddell indicated that Williams is at least leaning toward another year. The decision is not based on finances either, but rather just on whether Williams is physically up for another season. In fact, Waddell stated that the two sides have not talked contract terms at all, but is confident that a deal can be figured out despite the team’s lacking salary cap space. The Hurricane have just under $2.5MM open, but CapFriendly’s projection includes 23 players and Williams’ addition would bump another forward down to AHL Charlotte, meaning there’s slightly more space than it would appear. Waddell noted that an incentive-laden contract would allow the team to maneuver around the cap to fit Williams in. Williams is expected to be in Raleigh next week, likely with his decision made, so expect an announcement, one way or another, in short order. Given that he posted his highest point total since 2011-12 last season, it’s safe to assume that the respected veteran is not done just yet.
- Alexander also relays from Waddell some news on injured defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk. Despite early reports that van Riemsdyk could miss the beginning of the regular season, Waddell stated that he has already resumed skating. TVR suffered a serious shoulder injury in the postseason and went under the knife in early May. At the time, he was give a four-to-six month recover period that would have extended into November in the worst case scenario. Instead, he is clearly rehabbing well and is back on the ice after just three months. Waddell did warn that van Riemsdyk could be held out of contract drills early in training camp, but it certainly seems like the start of the regular season in October is well within his reach. Waddell added that forward Jordan Martinook is also doing well in his recovery from core surgery in late May.
- The Hurricanes’ front office is keeping busy still at this point in the summer, with a possible Willams negotiation still to come and ongoing talks with restricted free agents Saku Maenalanen, Trevor Carrick, Roland McKeown, and Anton Forsberg. The latter is new to the organization, coming over from the Chicago Blackhawks in the Calvin de Haan trade. The goaltender may get a rough start to his tenure in Carolina, as he is currently slated for a salary arbitration hearing on Sunday. The 26-year-old Forsberg is currently expected to play behind Petr Mrazek and fellow new addition James Reimer, as well as possibly top goalie prospect Alex Nedeljkovic. The Hurricanes are likely willing to go through arbitration with Forsberg to argue for a two-way contract, so as to avoid paying an NHL salary to a player who is likely to be buried in the minor leagues next season. Forsberg, who did not make an NHL appearance last season, is still likely to argue that not only does he deserve a one-way contract, but he deserves a raise on his previous $750K salary, given his NHL experience and stout AHL numbers.
- There is of course a chance that Forsberg could win the backup role behind Mrazek in training camp, as could Nedeljkovic. However, one of the key evaluators in that position battle is not yet in place. After goaltending coach Mike Bales resigned from his post in June to join the Buffalo Sabres, the Hurricanes have been on the hunt for his replacement. While a replacement has yet to be named, the announcement is imminent. Alexander writes that Waddell said the team is “close” to hiring a new goalie coach. Whoever that man is will play a key role in sorting through an intriguing situation in net, one that is unlikely to be completely decided in training camp alone.
Free Agent Profile: Patrick Marleau
It has been an interesting couple of years for veteran winger Patrick Marleau. It was only a couple of summers ago where the idea of him leaving San Jose seemed rather unrealistic but after they wouldn’t offer a third year on his contract, he was on his way to Toronto. Now, with the Maple Leafs paying Carolina a first-round pick to buy out that third year, he’s back on the open market once again.
After three straight campaigns of 25 goals or more, the 39-year-old showed some signs of slowing down last season but still managed to post a respectable 16 goals and 21 assists while extending his streak of years that he played in every game to ten straight. While 37 points isn’t a great return on what was a $6.25MM cap hit, the fact that Marleau can now be signed for cheaper than that should help him garner a fair bit of interest on the open market.
Of course, Marleau’s case is a little different than most. He hasn’t exactly hidden his desire to return to the West Coast and didn’t appear to give a whole lot of thought towards actually playing for Carolina, something GM Don Waddell did try to talk him into doing. Considering they made the Conference Final last season, that would have been a relatively compelling case. As a result, his market is a lot more restricted than it is for many of the other players that are still in need of a new contract.
Potential Suitors
Let’s get the obvious one out of the way first. There’s no denying that he’d like to go back to San Jose, the place he spent the first 19 years of his career. He’d slot in nicely in a third line role with the capability to move up from time to time when injuries arise. However, cap space could be a bit of a concern for the Sharks; while they have roughly $4.6MM in cap room per CapFriendly, they’re also still interested in retaining veteran center Joe Thornton as well. Signing Thornton wouldn’t leave a lot of room to fit Marleau in.
The Kings had trade discussions with Toronto before the draft about taking on Marleau’s deal but nothing came of it. Now with a chance to bring him in at a much cheaper price, they could circle back. However, he may not be the best of potential trade assets as he’d likely be looking for trade protection.
Arizona, another team in the West, could also benefit from someone like Marleau as they look to add offense to a team that struggled to score last season. They’re fairly tight to the cap as it is and would have to dip into offseason LTIR for Marian Hossa if they were to sign him though.
Projected Contract
If Marleau was open to signing with more than just a handful of teams, he’d be an intriguing free agent and could land a reasonable one-year deal. However, with such a limited market, it’s safe to say he’ll be signing for closer to the league minimum than what his previous deal was. Back in June, we projected a one-year, $900K deal plus $1MM in performance bonuses when we ranked him 31st in our Top 50 UFA list. That’s still about the right contract for him as if he winds up with a cap-strapped team, the bonus structure would at least allow them to potentially defer the cap hit on those for next season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Latest On Jake Gardiner
While most of the top players in unrestricted free agency signed quickly, that has not been the case for Jake Gardiner. While he was viewed as arguably the top defenseman available (once Erik Karlsson re-signed with San Jose in June), his market has seemingly been slow to develop.
In an appearance on his podcast for TalkNorth (audio link), Michael Russo of The Athletic provided an update on Gardiner’s situation. Beyond his initial asking price, some teams were concerned over the fact that he opted to not have surgery to fix his back issue, instead opting for rest and rehab. Knowing that the potential exists for him to eventually need to go under the knife is a possible red flag when you’re pondering committing a long-term deal.
Nonetheless, he reports that Gardiner may already know his next destination, suggesting that there is handshake deal in place at this time. However, the team signing him needs to make a trade (likely a high-priced defender) in order to clear out the cap space to move him.
While he’s coming off of a down season offensively that saw him record just three goals, he’s only one year removed from recording 52 points and as we’ve seen, players that are capable of putting up that type of production are getting big contracts. Accordingly, our projection for him before free agency opened up was a five-year, $32MM deal, a sizable raise on his previous contract worth $4.05MM.
Although it’s easy to say that all a team needs to do is clear out a sizable contract to make room for him, it’s often trickier to actually pull it off. Quite a few teams are already over the Upper Limit (or project to be over once they fill out their roster) and there are only so many teams with the budget space and willingness to take on a big-ticket deal. On the flip side, defensemen are often in demand so there may be more trade options compared to a team trying to move out a forward.
While Gardiner may be holding up the rest of the UFA defense market, it appears there could be a resolution in place already. Now it’s just a matter of waiting to see if the signing team can find a way to clear out a contract. Considering the slow-moving market when it comes to freeing up money, it may still be a little while yet before the 29-year-old puts pen to paper on his next deal.
Free Agent Profile: Ben Hutton
The free agent defense market has been slow-moving with Jake Gardiner not signing yet. That has a lot to do with the fact that Ben Hutton remains unsigned despite being one of the top blueliners still available.
The 26-year-old had a disastrous 2017-18 campaign. He went from being a top-four defender to someone that was a healthy scratch with some regularity while failing to score in 61 games. He looked like a sure fire non-tender candidate at the expiration of his contract in 2019.
However, Hutton really turned things around last season. He worked his way back into the top four and often spent time on the top pairing as he averaged a career-best 22:21 per night while chipping in with 20 points in 69 games. Despite that, the Canucks still declined to qualify him as his eventual arbitration award would have greatly affected their cap room.
While there are teams that may be concerned about his consistently poor plus/minus (he has been -21 or worse in three of his four seasons), Hutton still is a player that could serve as an upgrade for quite a few teams. He’s also a strong skater at a time where teams are placing a greater emphasis on mobility on the back end which also helps increase his value.
Potential Suitors
Don’t mistake the fact that he remains unsigned as a sign that there wasn’t been much interest. Hutton’s agent, Andy Scott, indicated earlier this month that there are plenty of offers on the table already and that there’s no question that he’ll be signed before training camp. Speculatively, his camp may be waiting for Gardiner to sign in the hopes that once he’s off the market, offers for Hutton will only get higher.
While he’s not an ideal option on the top pairing, Hutton would represent a strong upgrade on the third pairing for a lot of teams and would fit in on the second pair on quite a few as well.
In the East, the Canadiens have been looking for help on the left side and while they’ve already added Ben Chiarot, Hutton would give them another potential upgrade. Toronto has a need for defensive help but with their salary cap situation, that’s probably not a realistic fit at this time unless there’s a trade in place to shed salary beforehand. Detroit has already added Patrik Nemeth this offseason but with several other blueliners in the final year of their respective contracts, some insurance would certainly be handy while he’d immediately become one of their younger rearguards.
Out West, the Kings have been linked to him going back to the start of free agency and they haven’t really replaced Jake Muzzin who was dealt to Toronto last season. Hutton could plausibly fit in their top four and if they are indeed looking to rebuild, he’s someone that could plausibly be dealt for future assets close to the trade deadline. The Jets have been hit hard on the back end this summer with the departures of Chiarot, Tyler Myers, and Jacob Trouba and while they need to leave a lot of money earmarked for RFA wingers Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor, there should still be enough wiggle room for them to add someone like Hutton who could push for a top-four spot there as well.
Projected Contract
Hutton was rated 38th on our Top 50 UFA list with a projected contract of two years at $2.75MM per season. While he remains unsigned, there’s still a good chance that he winds up with a deal like that (although a one-year pact is also certainly an option). Once Gardiner signs, there should start to be some movement on Hutton and with demand outweighing supply at this point when it comes to capable blueliners, he’ll be poised to capitalize on that. He may just have to wait a few more weeks for that to come to fruition.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Profile: Oscar Lindberg
It’s been nearly a month since NHL free agency opened and a number of notable players remain unsigned, including 13 of PHR’s Top 50 Free Agents. Given the slow-moving nature of the market and the limited cap space that many teams are dealing with, it’s no surprise that a role player like Oscar Lindberg, ranked No. 47 on our list, remains unsigned.
With that said, Lindberg could prove to be a surprise steal once he does find his next team. The 27-year-old forward has been a consistent bottom-six contributor in each of his four NHL seasons, but finally showed some top-six upside in a late-season stop with the Ottawa Senators. Lindberg earned career-high minutes in Ottawa and recorded five goals and eight points in 20 games, a 20-goal and 33-point full season pace. He also returned to playing center, his natural position from his start with the New York Rangers but a role he was not given while with the Vegas Golden Knights. A relatively young player to be available on the open market and who has the potential to keep improving beyond just a defensive forward role, a team interested in Lindberg could wind up with a middle-six center at a good value at this point in the off-season.
Potential Suitors
Much like in Ottawa, Lindberg’s ceiling will be highest in a situation where there is room for him to compete for a top-six or at least top-nine role. A team that still needs help up front is likely the most realistic scenario salary-cap wise as well. It’s possible that a contender could look at Lindberg for a bottom-six role if the price is right, but more likely a rebuilding club will be enticed by the reliable defensive play and offensive upside that he can bring to make a superior offer.
Among the teams that could look at Lindberg more closely as the off-season wears on are the New Jersey Devils, Los Angeles Kings, and Minnesota Wild. All three clubs could really use some more depth up front and have room for Lindberg to compete for a key role. On top of that, they all have the cap space to accommodate a potential contract.
Other interested teams who may look at Lindberg as more of bottom-six depth piece could include the New York Islanders and Columbus Blue Jackets.
Projected Contract
In our Top 50 projections, we expected that Lindberg would land a two-year deal with a $2.1MM AAV. At this point in the summer, a multi-year deal seems less likely. However, it’s hard to see the salary dropping off by much. Lindberg made $1.7MM on his last contract and set a career high in ice time this past season, as well as recording 20 points in 55 games. If anything, his previous salary should be the low mark on a possible deal with something closer to the $2.1MM projection still the more likely result. It’s a salary range that teams in Europe would be happy to match to add a player of Lindberg’s ability, so interested NHL teams may have a hard time trying to drive the price down. Unless Lindberg is dead set on staying in North America at all costs, he should be able to negotiate a fair deal before the start of next season.
Free Agent Profile: Ben Lovejoy
Veteran defenseman Ben Lovejoy is someone who was in demand at the trade deadline and has typically been viewed as a capable option on the third pairing. Despite that, he finds himself still on the lookout for a new contract more than three weeks into free agency.
Last season, the 35-year-old was largely a regular defender for the Devils before they became sellers at the trade deadline. Several teams showed interest but he was ultimately dealt to Dallas as the Stars wanted to add depth for their push to the postseason.
While Lovejoy’s ice time dipped down the stretch to a little under 16 minutes per night, that changed in the postseason as he jumped back up over the 18-minute mark, right in line with his career averages that span over 500 regular season games. That ranked fifth on the team and he was pretty close to Roman Polak who wound up with top-four minutes in the postseason.
Lovejoy is a very limited player at this stage of his career which certainly isn’t helping his value now. He doesn’t bring much in the way of offense to the table nor is he a strong skater or puck mover. He’s an old school stay-at-home blueliner that can be counted on to help kill penalties and provide a shot-blocking presence; the only time in the last six years that he hasn’t passed the 100 block mark was 2017-18 when injuries limited him to just 57 games. Those aren’t elements that are typically in high demand at this point of the summer but as the season progresses and injuries take their toll, players of this type of ilk become a lot more appealing to some teams.
Potential Suitors
While it’s quite possible that Lovejoy ultimately winds up with a contender by the February 24th trade deadline, there’s a good chance he won’t wind up starting with one. At this point, his market is largely limited to teams that could view him as an upgrade on their third pairing, as injury insurance, or as veteran leadership for a younger team.
That said, one contending team that could make some sense is Tampa Bay. Of their four right-shot defenders that project to make a push for a roster, spot, three of them were in the minors for points of last season and the one that wasn’t is better off being deployed as a right winger at this point (Luke Witkowski). If Lovejoy is willing to sign for close to the league minimum (a requirement given their salary cap situation), he could be an end-of-roster upgrade.
As for some other fits in the West, Anaheim’s defensive depth isn’t what it once was. While they could certainly give some of their prospects a look (something that would make some sense with Dallas Eakins now behind the bench), adding a veteran like Lovejoy could also be useful. Chicago only has Brent Seabrook and Connor Murphy as proven fits on the right side while youngster Adam Boqvist may not be quite ready for NHL action yet so there could be a spot for Lovejoy there. A return to Dallas isn’t entirely implausible either, especially if they wind up dealing away youngster Julius Honka as many expect to see happen in the weeks to come.
Projected Contract
Lovejoy ranked 40th on our Top 50 UFA list with a projected contract of one year and $1MM plus an additional $900K in performance bonuses. He’s eligible to have those as long as he signs a one-year deal. If the summer progresses without much progress being made on a new contract, signing a bonus-laden pact may open up a few more options for Lovejoy closer to training camp.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Profile: Brian Boyle
Brian Boyle is a player that has been in high demand on multiple occasions at the trade deadline. Despite that, his market has been slow to develop this summer. Let’s take a closer look at his situation.
While Boyle has been coveted by quite a few teams in recent years, it also means that he has bounced around a lot. Over the past three seasons, he has played for four different teams. Each of those squads have brought him in for the same few reasons.
The 34-year-old has been effective at the faceoff dot for most of his career while also playing a regular shift on the penalty kill. Although teams have been trending more towards speed on the fourth line, Boyle has been able to adapt and be effective.
Look no further than last season for evidence to that effect. He collected 18 goals between New Jersey and Nashville (who added him near the trade deadline), the second-best mark of his career. While it’s notable that his 14.6 shooting percentage is well above his career average (9.3%), he has scored at least 13 goals in each of the last five years. That’s pretty good production from a player towards the bottom of the lineup. Accordingly, it stands to reason that he’ll wind up somewhere before training camps get underway in September.
Potential Suitors
There are two types of teams that are likely to have interest in Boyle at this point. Contending teams with enough cap room may want to add him now over trading for him midseason while rebuilding teams looking for some veteran leadership (and a chip to play at the trade deadline) should also be inquiring about him. Looking through the league, the majority of the potential fits appear to be in the East.
The Bruins lost Noel Acciari to Florida this summer and while they have other players that can fill that spot from within, Boyle’s the type of player they could conceivably look to acquire for depth at the deadline so if there’s a way to make it work, why not sign him now? The tricky part will be the RFA contracts for defensemen Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo as until those are solved, it’s highly doubtful Boston will be looking to add anyone else. The Islanders are known to have some interest in center depth after losing Valtteri Filppula to Detroit in free agency. GM Lou Lamoriello brought him in while he was with Toronto back in 2017 as well. Edmonton is hoping to get back into the playoff picture and if they intend to deploy one Leon Draisaitl or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on Connor McDavid’s wing, there could be an opening for someone like Boyle as well.
In terms of teams that could view him as short-term help with an eye on flipping him later in the season, several look like possibilities. The Blue Jackets haven’t really replaced Matt Duchene who left in free agency while the Kings could have a spot in the lineup as well. Both teams are currently being viewed as likely to miss the playoffs which would make him a trade candidate before too long. Boyle was also a very popular player in New Jersey and while they don’t need more center depth, it wouldn’t be shocking if they found a way to bring him back.
Projected Contract
Boyle slotted in 30th on our Top 50 UFA rankings, with a projected two-year, $4.5MM contract. A multi-year pact may be tricky to get at this point although a one-year deal around that AAV is certainly a reasonable possibility. At this point, the top end of the RFA market may be squeezing out veterans like Boyle (once they sign, teams will have a better sense of what flexibility they still have) but it’s a safe bet that he’ll have a new team by training camp.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Profile: Derick Brassard
It wasn’t that long ago that Derick Brassard was viewed as a legitimate top-six center. In fact, you only have to go back about one season for him to be in that category. However, the last year and a bit have really hurt his value which has led to a slow market so far in free agency.
To say the 31-year-old has bounced around lately would be an understatement as he has spent time in four different organizations over the past two seasons. Pittsburgh brought him in at the 2018 trade deadline in an effort to give them a third scoring line. Unfortunately for them, he struggled with his reduced role to the point where they considered shifting him to the wing to give him a chance to play a more offensive role.
That never really materialized and as a result, Brassard’s struggles continued into last season before the Penguins eventually cut bait with him, sending him to Florida in a four-player swap as basically a salary offset for the addition of Nick Bjugstad. He got off to a decent start with the Panthers before cooling off but his time was short-lived with the team out of playoff contention by then.
His rough season led to a reduced trade market for him with Colorado ultimately stepping up to acquire him along with a conditional 2020 sixth-round pick for a 2020 third-rounder. (Unless the Avs re-sign Brassard, they will receive that conditional selection.) Things didn’t go much better for him with the Avalanche as he had just four goals in 20 regular season games before seeing his ice time slashed considerably in the playoffs to just over ten minutes a night. Some players have big performances in contract seasons but this was anything but which has made his market much smaller than anticipated.
Potential Suitors
Brassard’s market will be determined by a couple of factors. Is he willing to sign a short-term deal? Is he willing to play the wing? If the answer to both is yes, he should have several suitors as the offseason progresses.
In the East, the Devils have plenty of cap space and have already used that to their advantage to sign winger Wayne Simmonds to a one-year deal. However, they’re set down the middle so Brassard would have to agree to shift to the wing for that to work. A return to where it all began in Columbus also makes some sense after their depth was depleted in free agency. He also has a little bit of experience playing under head coach John Tortorella. The Islanders lost Valtteri Filppula to Detroit in free agency and Brassard could certainly slot in his vacated spot in the lineup as well.
Finding fits in the West is a little more challenging. The Kings have some cap space and roster room but as a team that’s sort of sitting in the middle of no man’s land, the only way a signing makes sense is if it’s done with the intention of dealing him midseason. Considering his dull market back in February, there’s no guarantee that the market at that time will be particularly robust. If the Ducks want some more development time for their prospects, adding Brassard on a one-year deal (Corey Perry’s increased buyout cost would make a second year unrealistic) would be a reasonable idea. He’d be a fit in Dallas but to get him, they’d have to dip into offseason LTIR (for Martin Hanzal) which carries some risk.
Projected Contract
Brassard was ranked 25th in our Top 50 UFA Rankings with a projected two-year, $6MM deal with Columbus. While it’s still possible that he could land a multi-year pact, he may be better off at this point taking a one-year contract in the hopes of restoring some value for another run at the open market a year from now. It’s still possible that he could land close to the $3MM of our initial projection given his ability to play down the middle and previous track record of offensive success. While he has struggled lately, there would still be some upside signing Brassard so his market shouldn’t collapse completely.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.