Poll: Which UFA Contract Will Look The Worst Next Year?

When July 1st rolls around every year, excitement around the NHL goes through the roof. Top players are available for nothing but money and fans want their favorite team to shell out the dollars and cents to improve the club. Unfortunately, the deals that are made on the unrestricted free agent market are so often flawed and doomed to fail. Teams overpay for over-the-hill veterans or lock up players already in their prime for far too long. Former NHL GM Brian Burke has long held the belief that more mistakes are made on the first day of free agency than any other.

Every year we get a reminder of just how tricky the free agent market is. In 2017 we saw players like Karl Alzner (five years, $23.1MM), Patrick Marleau (three years, $18.8MM) and Kevin Shattenkirk (four years, $26.6MM) all sign contracts that would be regretted down the road. Alzner has spent time in the minors after clearing waivers, Marleau has already been bought out of the last year of his deal and Shattenkirk could potentially face the same fate later this summer if the New York Rangers are desperate for cap space.

Just one year after the 2018 frenzy and there are already several deals that look like mistakes. Jack Johnson‘s long-term deal (five years, $16.3MM) has Pittsburgh Penguins fans shaking their heads, while the Calgary Flames can’t find a spot for James Neal (five years, $28.8MM). Ilya Kovalchuk (three years, $18.8MM) looks like a shadow of what he once was.

Given the history of failure in this period, you can only assume that there will be teams deeply regretting things they did just a few days ago. Even just a year from now they might be trying to buy out some of the contracts they signed, or shipping them somewhere else to free up room. Which will be the worst? Which contract will be so unbearable a year from now that fans will be hollering for its removal? Cast your vote below and make sure to leave a comment explaining why:

Only contracts signed July 1, 2019 have been included

Which UFA contract will look the worst next year?

  • Sergei Bobrovsky (FLA): 7 years, $70MM 23% (752)
  • Brandon Tanev (PIT): 6 years, $21MM 13% (425)
  • Tyler Myers (VAN): 5 years, $30MM 12% (399)
  • Mats Zuccarello (MIN): 5 years, $30MM 11% (350)
  • Semyon Varlamov (NYI): 4 years, $20MM 8% (272)
  • Artemi Panarin (NYR): 7 years, $81.5MM 8% (255)
  • Matt Duchene (NSH): 7 years, $56MM 7% (224)
  • Anders Lee (NYI): 7 years, $49MM 5% (163)
  • Joe Pavelski (DAL): 3 years, $21MM 5% (149)
  • Anton Stralman (FLA): 3 years, $16.5MM 3% (100)
  • Gustav Nyquist (CBJ): 4 years, $22MM 2% (72)
  • Other (leave in comments) 1% (44)
  • Joonas Donskoi (COL): 4 years, $15.6MM 1% (30)

Total votes: 3,235

[Mobile users click here to vote]

Boston Bruins To Sign Samuel Asselin

July 8: The Bruins have announced the signing of Asselin, but not to a three-year entry-level contract. In fact, not to an NHL contract at all. Asselin has signed a two-year AHL deal and will begin his pro career under contract with Providence rather than Boston. This change allows the Bruins to maintain some degree of control over Asselin, without having to use up a valued NHL contract slot. The Bruins have nine such slots remaining with at least three more signings guaranteed this off-season.

June 7: According to Mikael Lalancette of TVA Sports, the Boston Bruins will be signing undrafted CHL free agent Samuel Asselin to a three-year entry-level contract. Lalancette adds that the Montreal Canadiens had also shown interest in the Quebec native.

Asselin, 20, had his best season of junior this year after being traded to the Halifax Mooseheads early on. In 68 regular season games he scored 48 times, leading the QMJHL in goals and placing tenth in overall scoring with 86 points. The undersized forward was almost as effective in the playoffs, recording nine goals and 17 points in 22 games as the Mooseheads went to the league final. He was named a QMJHL Second Team All-Star for his efforts, though the real prize is the NHL contract he is about to sign.

The Bruins have done extremely well with overlooked QMJHL stars in the past, as star forwards Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron were both selected outside of the first round. Obviously reaching that kind of level is a stretch for a player like Asselin, the team obviously believes he has shown some NHL potential this season. He had attended development camp with the Columbus Blue Jackets in the past but failed to earn a deal.

Asselin will turn 21 next month and will have to deal with a jump to the professional ranks in 2019-20, likely suiting up for the Bruins’ AHL affiliate. Not only will he have to continue to produce offensively, but if he wants to make it all the way to the NHL—especially as a center—he’ll have to compete physically and tighten up defensively. His faceoff skills are already strong, winning 54.1% of his draws this season, but it will only get tougher as the competition increases.

Pat Maroon Looking For More Than One-Year Deal

It seemed a good bet that Pat Maroon would re-sign with the St. Louis Blues for the 2018-19 season, after taking less money to be closer to his son last year. It worked out for everyone involved as the Blues would end up winning the Stanley Cup with Maroon in the lineup, but their interest hasn’t been clear in re-signing the veteran power forward. Now, Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic provides an update on Maroon’s free agency, indicating that he has several one-year offers from around the league but is waiting for the right fit and at least a “couple years.” Rutherford tweets that the Blues have limited interest.

Maroon, 31, finished the season with 28 points in 74 games for the Blues but was a key part of their Stanley Cup run. Scoring two game-winning goals against the Dallas Stars including the series-clinching effort in double overtime of game seven, the team may have never gotten past the second round without him. Still, his offensive production does seem to be on the decline after tallying just ten goals in the regular season, and at his size teams may be wary of his game completely falling off a cliff.

The 6’3″ 225-lbs forward is something of a throwback to a past era of NHL hockey, slower than many of his teammates but still talented and big enough to get to the right spots at the right times. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet quoted an NHL executive that explained Maroon is “a dinosaur, but there’s no one left who knows how to play against a dinosaur.”

In 449 career regular season games, Maroon has recorded 206 points. He scored 27 goals in 2016-17 with the Edmonton Oilers, and set a career-high in points with 43 the following year. If a team can get that kind of production out of the “Big Rig,” he would likely be worth whatever contract he has to settle for; whether that can realistically happen at this point is the question.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Puljujarvi, Broberg, Aho, Eriksson

A return to the Edmonton Oilers for restricted free agent Jesse Puljujarvi is getting less and less likely. Despite hope that new general manager Ken Holland and head coach Dave Tippett might be able to give the 21-year-old a fresh start, Puljujarvi hasn’t shown much interest in returning to the team since he requested the team trade him to give him a new start elsewhere.

“Although the Oilers have a new well-respected GM and a new coach the team is still pretty much the same,” said Puljujarvi’s agent Markus Lehto (in a Finnish publication via Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins. “Sometimes a player and a team are not a fit. This seems to be the case here. Nothing radical about it.”

While Leavins leaves the quote open to interpretation, especially the part where he said, “… the team is pretty much the same.” However, it’s clear that Puljujarvi has little interest in returning to Edmonton, leaving him with two options, waiting for Edmonton to find a trade partner or allowing him to leave and play overseas next season. Finding a trade partner has been challenging as the team wants good value back for a player who has just 17 goals over three full seasons.

  • A Swedish website, Hockey Svervige (translation required) reports that Edmonton Oilers first-round pick Philip Broberg, who recently signed his entry-level deal, will play for Sweden’s Skelleftea in the SHL this year alongside fellow Oilers’ prospect Filip Berglund, rather than come over to North America immediately. The Edmonton Journal’s David Staples adds that Holland’s main objective was to put him in a position to get the most minutes possible, which was the main reason for wanting him to come to North America and play in the OHL with the Hamilton Bulldogs. However, while there is no guarantee of playing time with Skelleftea, the team could always send him down to the Allsvenskan and have him return to his old team, AIK Stockholm.
  • In a tweet sent out by Carolina Hurricanes newly signed forward Sebastian Aho, the 21-year-old makes it clear that he only hoped to settle his restricted free agency as quickly as possible and had no interest in leaving Carolina. “I am grateful for the offer from the Montreal Canadiens, but it was always my hope to return to the Hurricanes,” Aho said. “As a restricted free agent, I had limited options for moving along the process to get a deal done. It was always important to me to be on the ice for the first day of training camp. This entire situation has been difficult for me and my family, and I am happy it is at an end.”
  • Patrick Johnston of The Province writes that it is becoming less and less likely that the Vancouver Canucks will be unloading the contract of veteran Loui Eriksson this offseason. The scribe writes that general manager Jim Benning has not been able to reach Eriksson to talk to him about the situation, it is clear he doesn’t intend to request a trade and isn’t planning on retiring. There are fewer and fewer options to find a team with the salary cap needed to take on his three years and $6MM AAV and with a full no-trade clause, he doesn’t have to accept a deal anywhere either. So unless, Benning can make an impressive maneuver, it looks like the Canucks are stuck with him.

Carolina Hurricanes To Match Sebastian Aho Offer Sheet

July 7: The Carolina Hurricanes have officially announced that they have matched the Montreal Canadiens offer sheet, as expected. This will free up the cap room that Montreal had tied up in the offer sheet for the last five days.

July 2: It may come as little surprise but the Carolina Hurricanes are set to match the Montreal Canadiens offer sheet signed yesterday by Sebastian AhoAho will remain part of the Hurricanes organization and will now be on a five-year, $42.27MM contract that takes him to unrestricted free agency in 2024. The Hurricanes will not be allowed to trade Aho for one year. The important part of the release for Montreal fans is that the Hurricanes will likely take the entire week allowed to formally submit the paperwork. Carolina GM Don Waddell explained the decision:

This was an easy decision. Sebastian is one of the best players in the league and the centerpiece of what we’re building here. We’ve spoken to him throughout this process and he’s made it clear that he wants to be in Raleigh and be a part of this organization.

It’s our job to manage our cap space as our players develop and hit free agency. There was no concern at any point that we would not be able to match this contract. Once again, the Carolina Hurricanes should not be underestimated. We have a plan and all the resources to win a Stanley Cup.

Aho, 21, has developed into a premiere offensive talent in the NHL through his three seasons and will now be paid like one. The deal will carry an $8.454MM cap hit throughout, but also includes more than $38MM in signing bonuses. Aho will earn the minimum NHL salary in each season, earning the rest of his money in a lump sum every July. That structure is what was included by the Canadiens in a hope to steal Aho away from Carolina, or at least what was negotiated in by his agent in order to facilitate a deal. The Hurricanes and their star center will now not have to go through a summer of contract talks, instead having things resolved by a third party.

The deal actually doesn’t represent a real over-payment by the Hurricanes, in fact some have dubbed it a bargain after some of the numbers that had been floating around attached to this year’s restricted free agent crop. Aho will slot in as the 25th-highest cap hit in the league for the time being, right between Steven Stamkos and Claude Giroux. After his 83-point season in 2018-19 he deserves to be considered among that group, especially after moving to center full-time.

A downside to the deal for the Hurricanes though is the length. It will buy out just a single season of unrestricted free agency and could have him poised to start a bidding war for his services if the team can’t work out an extension down the line. While that is years away from consideration, having a contract thrust upon you in this manner is not an optimal situation.

Poll: How Many Top 50 Free Agents Will Opt For Retirement?

A week into free agency, the vast majority of PHR’s Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents are under contract. Unsurprisingly, many of those left unsigned are on the wrong side of 30 or even at or approaching 40. Veterans tend to be later additions in free agency, as teams aren’t rushing to sign them to long-term deals to be core pieces, but rather seek to use them to plug holes in the lineup after the fact. As of now, there are nine names in the Top 50 that are legitimate candidates for retirement. Some have offers on the table and are taking their time to make a decision, while other may not have much of a market and could have to choose between a PTO or calling it a career. How many will choose retirement this summer?

Justin Williams37, enjoyed a tremendous 53-point season with the Carolina Hurricanes this past season and looked far from done. GM Don Waddell hinted that the captain will return next season, but until pen meets paper it remains a question mark. Williams was a key piece of the Hurricanes’ run to the Eastern Conference Final last season and would be a major loss for the team. However, he could opt to go out on top as a player who has seen very little drop-off in production through his 30’s and hit his highest point total since 2011-12 last season. Williams can still play, but the question is whether he wants to.

Joe Thornton40, not only wants to play next season, but wants to play several more years. The future Hall of Famer has already had an illustrious career, but has yet to win that elusive Stanley Cup. Thornton would like to return to the San Jose Sharks, one of only two teams he’s played for in his 21-year career, and the Sharks should be able to find the space to bring him back after moving out salary via trade and free agency departures. However, Thornton’s asking price will play a part – he did top 50 points again last season – as will the Sharks’ interest in bringing back another retirement threat. Patrick Marleau39, left San Jose two years ago to join the Toronto Maple Leafs, but has since been bought out and all signs point to a desire to return to the Sharks. These two legendary Sharks are both capable of continuing their NHL careers, but can San Jose fit them both and are either willing to sign elsewhere at this point in their careers?

Brian Boyle34, enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2018-19 and netted a second-round pick at the trade deadline. He clearly still has value as a big, smart two-way forward, but the lack of attention he has garnered thus far in free agency is curious. Boyle did not make as much of an impact in Nashville post-trade as he did in New Jersey and teams may be skeptical of his production moving forward. Between a cold market and recent health concerns, Boyle may be considering calling it a career while he’s still considered an elite defensive forward. However, it would be a surprise if there isn’t a team in the NHL who could still use Boyle’s ability.

Dion Phaneuf34, is fresh off of a buyout and should be available at a bargain rate as he continues to cash paychecks from the Los Angeles Kings. Phaneuf stated earlier this off-season that he would be happy to land with a contender, but is also open to taking on a mentor role with a young team. That would seemingly make him a candidate to join a number of D-needy teams. Yet, a week into free agency there has been almost no noise surrounding Phaneuf. The veteran still plays a strong checking game, but his offense and mobility fell off a cliff last season, resulting in drastic career lows in production and ice time. Teams may be hesitant to invest at his current asking price. Phaneuf may be looking at a decision between a short-term, minimum deal or walking away.

Ben Lovejoy35, is also coming off an uninspiring season. The Dallas Stars still felt he was worth a deadline gamble, but Lovejoy failed to make much of an impact offensively with either the Stars or Devils pre-trade. An experienced journeyman defenseman, Lovejoy still plays a strong defensive game and has great awareness in his own zone. However, when it comes to moving the puck he can be prone to turnovers and when asked to contribute offensively, he offers little. At this point in his career, Lovejoy is an ideal No. 7 or 8 defenseman. However, does he want to continue his playing career only to be used sparingly as a depth player? That’s the question.

Thomas Vanek35, is a tricky case. While his 36 points this season marked a career low, it also came in just 64 games and was one of the top marks for the Detroit Red Wings. Vanek has been a tough player to get a read on in recent years because he has moved around so much and played in a variety of roles. The eye test, combined with a plethora of rumors so far this summer, suggest that he can keep playing. But does a decorated veteran really want to continue being a hired gun and deadline deal year after year? If Vanek can find some security in a short-term contract, he will stick around in the NHL and likely continue to be a great value as a player capable of 50 points. However, the respected veteran may also be ready to call it a career if the right fit doesn’t exist.

Niklas Kronwall38, and Deryk Engelland37, are both in the same boat. They will either return to their current teams – the Red Wings and Golden Knights respectively – or they’ll retire. Neither is looking to move at this point in their careers, nor can they command salaries that their teams cannot pay. Instead, the duo are both valued for their leadership and loyalty and can still play well enough in a regular role or, more likely, thrive in a depth role. The question for both is simply how much they have left in the tank and whether it’s time to quit while they’re ahead.

So what do you think? Nine players, all with good reason to retire but also to keep playing, with various market factors at work. How many suit up in the NHL next season and how many make a final announcement in the coming weeks?

How Many Top 50 Free Agents Will Opt For Retirement?

  • 3-4 36% (316)
  • 1-2 35% (310)
  • 5-6 12% (103)
  • None 9% (78)
  • 7+ 8% (73)

Total votes: 880

Metropolitan Notes: Devils Moves, Flyers Roster, Backstrom

There still remains a number of intriguing free agents available on the open market, including Jake Gardiner, Ryan Dzingel and Micheal Ferland. However, despite having $20.77MM in projected cap space remaining on their roster, it’s unlikely the New Jersey Devils will be adding one of them unless their asking price drops significantly, according to The Athletic’s Corey Masisak (subscription required).

That cap number is somewhat deceiving as New Jersey has several restricted free agents they must deal with, including Pavel Zacha, Will Butcher, Mirco Mueller and Connor Carrick, amongst others. No player should walk away with too significant a deal, meaning the Devils would have the cap space to sign one of those free agents, but that still seems unlikely. The team already made their major moves earlier, trading for P.K. Subban and signing winger Wayne Simmonds in free agency. That, however, doesn’t mean they are done making moves.

“I made some calls,” Shero. “This week will be the same thing, and we certainly would want to see what’s out there, if there’s a chance as we go into the summertime and the rest of the summer into training camp.”

  • Sam Carchidi of Philly.com comes up with an early projection of the Philadelphia Flyers’ lineup with one interesting hole on the team’s third line. The scribe pencils in Nolan Patrick centering Oskar Lindblom, but lists the other wing position to a mystery man, likely to be battled during training camp. He notes that there are two logical candidates to win the role including veteran Scott Laughton as well as youngsters Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee. The 20-year-old Frost, a 2017 first-rounder, wrapped up his junior career last season and combined for 79 goals and 221 points over his last two years for the Soo Greyhounds of the OHL. The 19-year-old Farabee, a 2018 first-rounder, signed with the Flyers after one season with Boston University in which he scored 17 goals and 36 points in 37 games.
  • While the discussions of whether the Washington Capitals will be able to retain goaltender Braden Holtby after next season has been discussed, the Washington Capitals have another significant free agent as well next offseason in Niklas Backstrom. The Washington Post’s Barry Svrluga suggests that the Capitals are almost certainly going to find a way to bring the veteran center back. Backstrom will be 32 by then, but has been such an integral piece to the first line next to Alexander Ovechkin, that it seems inconceivable the team will allow the veteran to walk away, especially without a young center waiting in the wings, which Washington does not have. Backstrom is still putting up solid numbers as he scored 22 goals and 74 points last season.

Atlantic Notes: Sabres 2020 Offseason, Heinen, Chiarot

While the Florida Panthers received all the attention before free agency opened on July 1 due to their excessive amount of cap space and they fact that they were attracting several of the top free agents on the market, next year’s offseason will look quite a bit different. In fact, it could be the Buffalo Sabres that could be poised to take a similar role next year before free agency opens and could find themselves the team that could lock up some of the top free agents for the 2020-21 season.

The Athletic’s John Vogl (subscription required) writes that while a lot can change in a year, Buffalo has only nine key players under contract for the 2020-21 season along with six restricted free agents. The team is expected to be free of a number of contracts, including Zach Bogosian ($5.14MM), Marco Scandella ($4MM), Vladimir Sobotka ($3.5MM), Conor Sheary ($3MM), Jimmy Vesey ($2.28MM), Matt Hunwick ($2.25MM), Scott Wilson ($1.05MM) and Casey Nelson ($812K). Assuming the salary cap rises by approximately $2MM, the Sabres should have about $29.5MM of projected salary cap, and assuming general manager Jason Botterill can properly persuade them, could add a couple of top free agents.

Who could be available, assuming that some of them don’t re-sign with their teams in the next season? Taylor Hall, Nicklas Backstrom, Brayden Schenn, Chris Kreider, Mike Hoffman, Alex Galchenyuk, Torey Krug, Jake Muzzin, Tyson Barrie, Roman Josi, and Braden Holtby.

  • While it’s been assumed for some time that Marcus Johansson would not return to Boston, (he signed with Buffalo earlier today), The Athletic’s Fluto Shinzawa (subscription required) looked at who might replace the veteran forward this season as the third-line left wing. The problem for Boston is that the team is loaded with a number of right-shot options in Zachary Senyshyn, Karson Kuhlman or Brett Ritchie. However, general manager Don Sweeney suggested it might be best to take the third-line right wing, Danton Heinen, and move him to the left side as he possesses more versatility than the others, which could allow one of the others to move in on the right side. “I think Heinen, depending on what side you play him on,” said Sweeney when asked who could replace Johansson. “Whether it’s Karson or Senyshyn or Brett Ritchie, guys that are right shots, we could play lefty-righty and move Danton over. I think he fits into the same mold of player creative-wise.”
  • The Athletic’s Marc Dumont (subscription required) analyzes the video of the Montreal Canadiens newly signed blueliner Ben Chiarot and looks at where he might fit in their lineup. Chiarot, who told reporters that he has discussed with the coaching staff about playing on the second pairing alongside Jeff Petry. However, Dumont suggests that would be a mistake as Chiarot struggles with retrieving pucks in a timely manner, which would not work well with Petry and suggests that Brett Kulak should continue in that role like he did last season. It might be best to play him on the Canadiens’ third pairing, but that seems a waste considering his $3.5MM price tag.

 

Tampa Bay Lightning Sign Cedric Paquette, Carter Verhaeghe

The Tampa Bay Lightning have avoided arbitration with another one of their restricted free agents, as Joe Smith of The Athletic reports the team has agreed to a two-year contract with Cedric Paquette. The deal will carry a $1.65MM average annual value, and take him to unrestricted free agency in 2021. The team has also announced a one-year, two-way contract for Carter Verhaeghe, keeping the minor league star in the organization and avoiding arbitration.

Paquette, 25, was an underrated part of the Tampa Bay machine last season, scoring 13 goals while suiting up for a career-high 80 games. Though he only added four assists and averaged just 12 minutes of ice time, he locked down the team’s fourth-line center position, was a key penalty killer and easily led the club in hits with 269. There’s no reason to think he’ll ever be an offensive dynamo in the NHL, but the Lightning will be happy if he can continue to win faceoffs and provide his physical play during limited minutes. With J.T. Miller and Ryan Callahan gone this season, that type of grinding game will be appreciated even more.

Verhaeghe meanwhile is still trying to crack the NHL squad, but had about as good a minor league season as anyone last year. The 23-year old put up 34 goals and 82 points in 76 games to lead the AHL in both categories (tying his teammate Alex Barre-Boulet in goals) and should compete for a spot on the roster this fall. The former Toronto Maple Leafs prospect is eligible for waivers and could be claimed if the Lightning try to send him back to the Syracuse Crunch once again.

Minor Transactions: 07/04/19

We’re now several days into the free agency period for 2019 and things have slowed to a turtle’s pace. After a flurry of moves in the first few hours including Artemi Panarin, Sergei Bobrovsky and Matt Duchene finding new homes, there’s been almost no movement at all on the UFA market. Ben Chiarot came off the board this morning when the Montreal Canadiens gave him a three-year deal, but otherwise there have only been depth moves. That’s what teams seem to be focused on at the moment, as there are still more minor league signings coming in:

  • The Toronto Marlies have signed Marcus Power, Sergei Sapego and Maksim Zhukov to minor league contracts, adding three more names to fill out the organizational depth charts. Zhukov is a name some Vegas Golden Knights may remember, as he was originally drafted by the team in the fourth round in 2017. Vegas decided not to sign Zhukov this year and had his exclusive draft rights expire.
  • Garet Hunt, a veteran of a decade in the ECHL and one of the toughest 5’8″ players in the world, has signed on with Kunlun Red Star of the KHL. Hunt has amassed 2,666 penalty minutes across his ECHL career, fighting as many as 29 times in a single season. The former Vancouver Giants enforcer will join former NHL players like Adam Cracknell, Spencer Foo and Gilbert Brule on the KHL club this season.
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