Pacific Division Snapshots: Brown, Strome, Russell
Dustin Brown spent eight seasons as the captain of the Los Angeles Kings, helping the team to two Stanley Cup championships during that time. He scored 54 points in 2011-12, the fifth consecutive campaign of at least 22 goals and 53 points, but since has seen his performance decline. Brown did tally 18 goals during the strike-shortened 2012-13 season but in the three full seasons since he’s averaged just 0.35 points-per-game. That performance regression in part prompted the Kings to remove the “C” from Brown’s sweater in order to give it to Anze Kopitar.
The Kings did look to move Brown this summer but with six seasons remaining on a contract that calls for an AAV of just shy of $6MM, there wasn’t much interest. Brown was critical of the decision, particularly in how the situation was handled, but the 13-year veteran has handled his business like a pro this season. In fact, as Josh Cooper of Yahoo writes, not having the responsibilities of the position any longer allows Brown to focus on playing hockey and his play has improved this season as a result.
“I’m not taking the game home with me, which in years past was a difficult thing not to do, partly because I … just as a competitor you want to take everything personally. Now I’m kind of detached a little bit from it, which is a good thing. So I get to come to work every day and do my job. It has been much easier to leave it here, which has been much healthier.”
Brown has six points in 20 games, a per-game average of 0.45. That prorates to a full, 82-game total of about 37 points. Brown has been part of an effective third line with Devin Setoguchi and Nic Dowd and for the first time in a long while he says he is enjoying the game:
“This is probably the first time I’ve had fun playing hockey in a couple of years. I know in saying that we play a game for a living. But I always say no matter if you’re playing a game or whatever you’re doing in life if you’re not having fun it’s tough to do.”
Even with the uptick in production it’s unlikely Brown will ever again be worth his cap charge. But the Kings must nonetheless be pleased to see even a moderate improvement from their former captain.
Elsewhere in the Pacific Division:
- Dylan Strome has tons of skill and plenty of hockey instincts. But Arizona GM John Chayka and team bench boss Dave Tippett believe the one thing holding him back at this point in his young career is a lack of physical maturity, as Craig Morgan of Arizona Sports writes. Strome was recently returned to the Erie Otters of the OHL after a seven game spin at the NHL level. He tallied just a single assist and was a minus-5 while averaging 13:41 of ice time per game. Strome’s struggles represent one of the issues regarding Canadian junior players. His development won’t be helped by returning to the OHL as he’s simply too good for that level. But as we’ve seen, he isn’t physically ready for the challenges of the NHL and he can’t be sent to the AHL to play against other professionals due to the rules in place. However, as Morgan notes, Strome will be eligible to represent Canada at the upcoming Word Juniors, which as Chayka points out, will allow him to serve as a leader on the Canadian squad: “I think that’s important to be in Canada for him,” Chayka said. “He should be a big part of that team; a big part of that leadership group.”
- Kris Russell has his critics as a player, particularly among the analytical community. Yet the Edmonton Oilers, who signed the veteran defender late in the offseason, are pleased with what he has brought to the table, as Robert Tychkowski of the Edmonton Journal writes. The numbers that matter most to the Oilers is the team’s won-loss record when he is in the lineup versus when he is out. Edmonton is 9 – 3 – 1 with Russell playing and just 2 – 5 – 0 when he does not play. While he isn’t putting up big counting numbers, in the opinion of bench boss Todd McLellan, Russell has helped add stability to a unit that has been below-average over the last several seasons: “I don’t think it’s coincidence. I think he does bring enough stability back there that he has an impact on the outcome of games.” Russell had to wait through the summer before landing a deal with Edmonton but if he continues to impress Oilers management, the team could look to lock up the 10-year vet before he hits the free agency next July.
The Post-Burns Free Agent Market
Unlike the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Steven Stamkos saga of this past summer, the San Jose Sharks have spared hockey fans the drama and re-signed the top free agent on the market well before the trade rumors or free agency speculation could begin. Brent Burns inked an eight-year, $64MM extension earlier today, removing one of hockey’s most dynamic players from play next summer. So where does that leave the rest of the market?
With the Las Vegas expansion team joining the NHL this year by way of an expansion draft and some special free agency privileges, the 2017 off-season was already shaping up to be unique and unpredictable. However, the one constant that many agreed upon was that if Burns hit the open market, he would be the most sought after player this summer. The Sharks put an end to that potential narrative early on and what’s left is a free agent market filled with mostly question marks.
Regardless of Burns availability, the forward market was already lacking in excitement. Burns’ San Jose teammates Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau are likely the biggest names available, but both are way past their prime at 37 years old. Jaromir Jagr and Jarome Iginla qualify for the “future Hall of Famer with little upside” group as well, and Patrick Sharp and Radim Vrbata may as well join the old-timers too. With Burns gone, is it possible that T.J. Oshie is now up for best player available?
Perhaps goalie Ben Bishop now claims the title of top free agent. He was the only one who could realistically give Burns a run for his money, and now faces little competition. The 30-year-old Tampa Bay keeper is set to hit free agency with his team seemingly committed to the young Andrei Vasilevskiy. With one less player out there to command a top contract, Bishop will now likely cash in with a deal close to the $8.5MM yearly pact given by the New York Rangers to Henrik Lundqvist. Without another all-world player like Burns available for teams to weigh against Bishop, expect him to be signed early, leaving money and interest open for the likes of Brian Elliott, Thomas Greiss, Steve Mason and potentially this season’s early surprise star, Peter Budaj.
Where the Burns signing really makes an impact is among the free agent defenseman. Suddenly Kevin Shattenkirk has been thrust into the position of best available blue liner and will be able to command whatever salary he likes. However, reports this past summer indicated that Shattenkirk only had eyes for the Eastern Conference, specifically Boston and New York. So where do the other 28 teams look? Like the majority of big-name forwards, Andrei Markov presents limited upside at 37 years old, and Mark Streit even more so at 38. Brian Campbell, Johnny Oduya, Ron Hainsey: same thing. Burns absence from open competition is likely to instead benefit some younger defenseman who have yet to establish themselves as bona-fide top pair guys. Dmitry Kulikov, who was traded from Florida to Buffalo this summer, has yet to score a point for his new team but may just end up being the most sought-after defenseman. Injury-prone risk/reward players like Michael Del Zotto and Michael Stone will also draw more interest. Even players who have struggled for a couple seasons now, like Dennis Wideman or Cody Franson, could be in a position for a pay day this summer.
What it boils down to is this: take a weak free agent market and remove it’s best player and things are likely to get messy. With the expansion process removing talent from every NHL roster, the 2017 off-season will be one where nearly every team has a need to address. The re-signing of Brent Burns just changed the free agency market dynamics completely and teams will likely be scrambling to make additions (with several overvalued contracts guaranteed). With a dearth of talent available to sign, there will likely be an active trade market this summer as well. This off-season was already going to be crazy, but the San Jose Sharks just took it to the next level with their massive extension for the best impending free agent.
San Jose Sharks Snapshots: Burns, Labanc
Brent Burns and his potential free agency next summer is already a hot topic and will only continue to grow more popular as the season progresses with no contract extension between the blue liner and the San Jose Sharks. There is no doubt Burns is set to cash in whether he re-signs with the Sharks or heads to the open market and as Adam Gretz of FanRag Sports Network argues, Burns will be well worth every penny on his next contract.
Gretz speculates that given what similar defenseman have received, Burns should have no trouble finding a deal worth anywhere between $7MM and $8MM annually. That would place him easily among the highest paid blue liners in the game as only P.K. Subban has a contract with an AAV in excess of $8MM. But as Gretz points out, since becoming a full-time blue liner in 2014-15, Burns has more goals than anyone else at the position with 50.
Further, Burns ranks behind only Erik Karlsson in points with 149 and has more shots on goal than any other defender with 673.
Of course it’s easy to rationalize paying Burns or any other defenseman $8MM-a-year based on his current production level; the real question is how he is going to fare the longer his contract runs.
At 31, Burns is likely to get the seven-year max contract – eight if he re-signs with San Jose – which will take him well into his late 30’s. Naturally, Burns’ performance will decline as he ages and whoever signs the 6-foot-5, 230-pound defenseman will have to hope it’s a slow decline rather than a sudden one.
Assuming Burns finishes the current campaign strong he has a strong chance to join an accomplished group of defenders who have averaged 0.80-points-per-game or better between their age 29 and 31 seasons. According to Gretz, just 16 others have done that and many of those played during the 1980’s when scoring was significantly higher than it was in any other era. Gretz takes it further, noting that those blue liners saw on average a 19% decrease in point production over the four years following that stretch between 29 and 31. If Burns follows that same trend he would still be a 50-point scorer in year four of his next contract.
Granted, Gretz’s analysis does leave open the likelihood that Burns’ performance will decline further in years five through seven. In fact, he may well not be worth what he will be paid during those seasons but that’s a risk every team that signs a big money, long-term deal accepts. The hope is to get enough surplus value in the first half of the pact to offset the losses likely to be seen in the back half.
In other San Jose Sharks news:
- An unlikely top prospect, Brooklyn-born Kevin Labanc, who was selected by the Sharks in the sixth round of the 2014 entry draft, made his NHL debut last week. In five contests since joining San Jose, Labanc only has one point. But the rookie winger had his best game so far, as Kevin Kurz of CSN Bay Area reports, playing on a line with Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski in Thursday’s loss to St. Louis. Labanc notched his first NHL goal and nearly had another later in the game. The Sharks are going to need more games like that from the youngster as they may be without the services of Tomas Hertl for a while.
New York Islanders Looking For An Offensive Boost
Maybe Cal Clutterbuck isn’t a good enough winger for John Tavares — who knew? In a piece for Newsday, Arthur Staple reports that the New York Islanders are looking for an upgrade on offense, and have been scouring the league for possible options. Staple mentions the Colorado Avalanche as a possible trade partner, as their struggles mirror those found in New York. While Matt Duchene‘s name is bandied about, the possibility of that kind of a blockbuster still seems far-fetched.
The Islanders sit last in the Metropolitan Division and have scored just 2.5 goals per game, a big drop from the 2.83 they scored last season. While that drop-off could have been partially expected after the departures of Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen to free agency, big ticket signing Andrew Ladd has been a disaster for the Isles, relegated to the fourth line at times. His three points in 16 games lends credence to the idea that he was always more of a secondary-scoring type playing in excellent situations.
While no one is questioning Ladd’s work ethic or leadership qualities, it’s quite telling that Clutterbuck and Josh Bailey have been skating with Tavares over him. It’s not clear where the next wave of offense is expected to come from though, as youngsters Ryan Strome and Anthony Beauvillier have each scored just five points through the first part of the season. In Staple’s article, he mentions Josh Ho-Sang and Michael Dal Colle as potential additions; both are skating with Bridgeport of the AHL at the moment and finding varying degrees of success. Ho-Sang though has apparently caught whatever Ladd has, and has seen his playing time reduced and was even a healthy scratch on Friday night.
If Garth Snow, who is in Toronto at the annual GM meetings, decides to look elsewhere he’ll need to be careful not to mortgage the team’s future in pursuit of something that may not be able to be found. A single player, while clearly helpful, may not be able to turn around what has been a disaster of a season so far. If one were to listen to Islanders’ fans, it’s a problem with the head coach Jack Capuano and not the players. Staple reiterates what many others have said however, that Capuano is in no danger of losing his job – for now.
Duchene, while an interesting option, would surely cost a huge haul coming off his first 30 goal season in the NHL. The speedy forward is only 25 still despite having over 500 games of experience and is under contract for two seasons after this at a $6MM AAV. After signing Ladd to a seven year, $38.5MM deal this summer the Islanders are right up against the cap and although they do have some flexibility with LTIR they would likely need to move out some money to bring in an impact forward.
To add a little bit of insult to injury, P.A. Parenteau, the winger New York waived prior to the season is off to a hot start in New Jersey. His five goals would tie him for the lead on the Islanders with Tavares and costs just $1.25MM.
Snapshots: Harding, Expansion Rules, Saad
Josh Harding knows exactly what Bryan Bickell is going through.
The retired 32-year-old goaltender was diagnosed with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) back in 2012 during the last lockout. Harding told ESPN‘s Scott Burnside that he considered keeping his diagnosis private, but didn’t because he have to take time away from the game for treatment, and he felt that going public would do some good. Harding says having MS is nothing to be ashamed of.
Harding returned to the NHL that season, playing five regular season games and five playoff games. He won the Masterton Trophy for dedication to hockey. He played 29 games the next season, posting a remarkable 0.933 SV% and a 1.65 GAA. Unfortunately, that was the end of his hockey career. As Harding told Burnside, “when the doctors say enough’s enough, you kind of have to listen to them.”
Now that Bickell has been diagnosed with MS, he and Harding have been in contact about their awful common illness. Harding has told Bickell what treatments worked for him and shared strategies for dealing with the incurable disease. However, Harding can’t tell him for sure that he’ll play in the NHL again. He told Burnside that “if there was a blueprint for what you have to do, I really think I’d still be in the league.”
While Harding was only able to play for 39 more games after his diagnosis, he says he’s rooting for Bickell and hopes that his experience with the disease will be different than Harding’s. Harding says he’s at peace with his career path, and enjoys spending time with his two children as well as helping coach a local high school team.
Another former goalie with MS, Jordan Sigalet plans to be in touch with Bickell to offer their support.
- There has been much talk about expansion at the NHL GM meetings. The rules for which players need to be protected have been finalized, and the GMs are receiving guidelines about all possible ways of circumventing the rules and why they’re not allowed. Some GMs are concerned about the exclusive free agency window, where Las Vegas GM George McPhee will be able to meet with pending free agents. Could the something Knights make a handshake deal with a free agent to sign on July 1, but not sign them then in order to select another player from that team? No. Can other teams make “wink, nudge” deals with McPhee to not select a certain player? No. All trades will have to be done through a trade call to the NHL and documented. The penalties for trying to circumvent the rules are going to be stiff, possibly a first round pick. As Devils GM Ray Shero pointed out to Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston, all deals will have “pass the smell test with the league.”
- In his weekly “30 Thoughts“, Elliotte Friedman wondered if the Blue Jackets would be interested in parting ways with Brandon Saad. Columbus acquired him from the Chicago Blackhawks in June of 2015 and promptly signed him to a six-year, $36MM contract. Saad has been a solid performer for the Blue Jackets, but the cap-strapped team may want to move his $6MM salary. There appears to be some disconnect between Saad and the club, as he’s fifth in both team scoring and ice-time, but was almost a healthy scratch last week. Friedman reported the Blackhawks looked into re-acquiring Saad last season, but couldn’t make it work. The Blackhawks could certainly use Saad back, with his chemistry with Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa on the downswing. It’s not clear how they could make it work salary-wise, though. There’s always a market for a 30-goal scorer, especially one who is just 24.
LeBrun’s Latest: GMs To Discuss Rule 48, Expansion
ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun writes that in a brief one-day meeting in Toronto, general managers will be discussing several issues affecting the league. Thought the meeting will only be tomorrow, LeBrun reports that one major topic for discussion will be blindside hits, such as the one delivered by Nazem Kadri on Daniel Sedin. The argument? It should be included in Rule 48 which focuses on illegal checks to the head. Rule 48 stipulates:
- 48.1 Illegal Check to the Head – A hit resulting in contact with an opponent’s head where the head was the main point of contact and such contact to the head was avoidable is not permitted. In determining whether contact with an opponent’s head was avoidable, the circumstances of the hit including the following shall be considered:
- (i) Whether the player attempted to hit squarely through the opponent’s body and the head was not “picked” as a result of poor timing, poor angle of approach, or unnecessary extension of the body upward or outward.
- (ii) Whether the opponent put himself in a vulnerable position by assuming a posture that made head contact on an otherwise full body check unavoidable.
- (iii) Whether the opponent materially changed the position of his body or head immediately prior to or simultaneously with the hit in a way that significantly contributed to the head contact.
LeBrun quotes Nashville general manager David Poile as one who believes the language in the rule needs to be tightened further. Additionally, Poile points out that along with many other league executives, there needs to be a determination between what is a “good legal hit versus what is a punishable, suspendible hit.” Poile adds that it’s not anyone’s fault, but it is something that needs a closer look.
Other issues on the docket:
- LeBrun wonders what will be decided when it comes to free agency and the expansion draft. After talking to a Western Conference executive, LeBrun wrote this:
In particular, he had this question for me: what if Vegas agrees to terms with a pending UFA in that 48-hour window but doesn’t actually sign him until July 1 (wink, wink) in order to snag another player off that team’s roster in the expansion draft? The rules state that if Vegas signs a free agent from a team in that 48-hour June window, that team no longer can lose a player in the expansion draft.
- LeBrun also thinks that the five-day bye weeks will be discussed as it’s been a point of contention with some general managers. In addition to this, LeBrun said that Las Vegas general manager George McPhee could not attend meetings since the team does not have “franchise rights” until the spring.
Pacific Division Notes: Burns, Kopitar, Virtanen
Assuming he resists overtures from the Sharks to sign a massive extension first, Brent Burns will hit free agency next July as one of, if not the top player on the market. In fact, as Curtis Pashelka of the San Jose Mercury News writes, his situation closely mirrors that which confronted Steven Stamkos last season.
Like Stamkos, Burns will be a much-desired commodity if he reaches the open market. And just like Tampa Bay, the Sharks surely want to retain their star player. Though again, like Tampa Bay, San Jose will want to do so at a price less than that which Burns will be able find in free agency.
Of course the situation has already generated a lot media attention and will continue to do so until a resolution is reached. For many players, his pending free agency can prove to be a distraction and perhaps even impact his performance on the ice. That doesn’t seem to be the case to date for Burns as the 31-year-old blue liner has already tallied six goals and 14 points through 15 contests. But should Burns struggle with the attention and seek advice on how to handle things, he has a good resource in his friend Stamkos.
As Pashelka notes, the two players have known each other for more than two decades and spent some time together this summer. But according to Stamkos, Burns didn’t broach the subject of his free agency:
“Can’t say we’ve had a lot of discussions about it. I’m definitely open to a conversation if it comes a point where he needs somebody to talk to. But I know Burnzie. He knows what he’s doing.”
Burns certainly enjoys playing in San Jose and likely will give the Sharks every opportunity to extend his contract. Surely the Sharks will hope that Burns, like Stamkos, decided to forsake the probability of more money to remain somewhere he is happy.
Elsewhere in the Pacific Division:
- It looks like the Kings may have dodged a bullet as the upper-body-injury suffered by team captain Anze Kopitar is considered day-to-day, reports Lisa Dillman of the Los Angeles Times. Kopitar appeared to injure his wrist/upper arm area when taking a spill along the boards in the third period of the team’s tilt with Ottawa. Kopitar, one of the NHL’s best centers, did miss this afternoon’s game against Winnipeg but the fact he’s been listed as day-to-day is good news for a team that dropped to 7 – 8 – 1 after today’s shootout loss to the Jets. The 29-year-old native of Slovenia is off to a slow start production-wise, with just eight points in 15 games.
- Earlier this week the Vancouver Canucks assigned 20-year-old winger Jake Virtanen to their AHL affiliate in Utica. However, as reported, the team recalled Virtanen today after he saw action in two games this weekend for the Comets. Virtanen is off to a tough start to the campaign with just one point, an assist, in 10 games with Vancouver. He was also held off the scoresheet this weekend while suiting up for Utica. Virtanen did not play today in the Canucks 5 – 4 win OT win over Dallas.
2016 UFA Scoring Leaders
A lot of money changed hands this off-season as teams battled to sign the best unrestricted free agents in the market. But the practice doesn’t guarantee success—sometimes the underrated signings are the ones that pay off. Over the course of the year PHR will list the top-scoring 2016 unrestricted free agents in an effort to gauge the best signings this offseason.
Leading 2016 UFA Scorers (as of 11/11/16)
Jonathan Marchessault (FLA): 13 points (7G, 6A) in 13 games
Alexander Radulov (MTL): 11 points (3G, 8A) in 13 games
Michael Grabner (NYR): 10 points (7G, 3A) in 14 games
Radim Vrbata (ARI): 9 points (4G, 5A) in 12 games
Milan Lucic (EDM): 9 points (5G, 4A) in 14 games
Brandon Pirri (NYR): 9 points (4G, 5A) in 14 games
Thomas Vanek (DET): 8 points (4G, 4A) in 7 games
Eric Staal (MIN): 8 points (4G, 4A) in 11 games
Kyle Okposo (BUF): 8 points (5G, 3A) in 12 games
Colton Sceviour (FLA): 8 points (5G, 3A) in 13 games
Dennis Seidenberg (NYI): 8 points (4G, 4A) in 13 games
Top-Performing Impending Free Agents Thus Far
A month deep the 2016-17 season, several key 2017 unrestricted free agents have gotten off to a strong start in their contract years. With many players slated for free agency in a unique off-season, given the addition of the Las Vegas expansion franchise, it may be more important than ever for impending free agents to perform well. With another competitor in the mix, especially one that needs to build a team from scratch, prices will skyrocket for top-end talent. So far, the following players are in line for a hefty contract this June, if they’re not re-signed even earlier or (surprisingly for many) if they choose to retire:
D Brent Burns, San Jose Sharks – 5 goals/7 assists/12 points
C Joe Thornton, San Jose Sharks – 2 goals/9 assists/11 points
RW Alexander Radulov, Montreal Canadiens – 3 goals/8 assists/11 points
D Mark Streit, Philadelphia Flyers – 3 goals/7 assists/10 points
D Kevin Shattenkirk, St. Louis Blues – 3 goals/7 assists/10 points
RW Radim Vrbata, Arizona Coyotes – 4 goals/5 assists/9 points
C Brandon Pirri, New York Rangers – 4 goals/5 assists/9 points
C Matt Cullen, Pittsburgh Penguins – 3 goals/6 assists/9 points
LW Thomas Vanek, Detroit Red Wings – 4 goals/4 assists/8 points
D Dennis Seidenberg, New York Islanders – 4 goals/4 assists/8 points
RW Patrick Eaves, Dallas Stars – 3 goals/5 assists/8 points
G Peter Budaj, Los Angeles Kings – 7 wins/1.86 GAA/.919 SV%
G Jonathan Bernier, Anaheim Ducks – 1 win/2.16 GAA/.939 SV%
G Ben Bishop, Tampa Bay Lightning – 5 wins/2.91 GAA/.907 SV%
Disappointments: Martin Hanzal, Brian Elliott, Jarome Iginla, Patrick Sharp, Steve Mason, Patrick Marleau, Drew Stafford
What’s Next For The Vancouver Canucks?
Last season the Vancouver Canucks reached their lowest point in more than fifteen years. They finished with 75 points, better than only the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers, and missed the playoffs by a mile. As many believed that Daniel and Henrik Sedin were slowing down (as people do when they turn 35), the team looked like they should start a rebuild around some young forwards, and sell off assets for this season. After all, they were likely to get a top-three draft pick and already had Bo Horvat as a potential superstar.
Instead, they dropped to fifth in the draft and missed out on the big forwards, and then had an extremely confusing offseason period. First they traded one of their young prospects, Jared McCann for Erik Gudbranson, a still-young but much more expensive player who many in the analytics community believed was steady but mostly ineffective. McCann is off to a slow start in Florida (no points in eleven games), but still looks like he’ll eventually be a solid NHL centerman.
Next they signed Loui Eriksson, one of the summer’s biggest free agents to a huge six year, $36MM deal that will pay him through his age-36 season. Eriksson is a solid player, but hasn’t found any amount of success in Vancouver; he hasn’t scored a goal in 11 games after notching 30 last year.
Making a financial commitment of that level is usually reserved for teams looking to compete for a Stanley Cup in the near future, but Vancouver doesn’t seem like they’re poised to do that. They’re 4-6-1 this season, and are currently down 2-1 and being out-shot by those same Maple Leafs who finished lower than them last year. While Ryan Miller is having a solid year splitting time with the younger Jacob Markstrom, he’s a free agent next year (and 37 years old).
So what do the Canucks do now? Tearing down a team a few months after committing tens of millions in free agency isn’t a strong plan, but it may be what they have to do. Unfortunately for him, we’ll probably see the ousting of head coach Willie Desjardins, as is usually the case when things go downhill.