- Florida will have defenseman Radko Gudas back in their lineup tonight versus Carolina, notes Jameson Olive of the Panthers’ team website (Twitter link). He was a late scratch on Thursday night due to an upper-body injury. Gudas is fifth on the team in ATOI by a defender, logging just over 17 minutes per game in his first season in Florida. Meanwhile, they’ll be without Gustav Forsling due to a lower-body issue. The early-season waiver claim has been held off the scoresheet in eight games so far this season.
Panthers Rumors
Poll: NHL’s “Thanksgiving Trend” Revisited
Fans of the NHL are sure to be familiar with the deeper meaning that American Thanksgiving holds each season. With unrelenting consistency, the NHL’s standings on the final Thursday of November have had great predictive ability when compared to the final regular season standings. In fact, over the past seven years the Thanksgiving standings have been about 75% accurate at forecasting eventual playoff teams, predicting 12 of 16 spots on average. Even though American Thanksgiving only rolls around less than two months into the season, three out of four teams in a playoff spot at that time will have retained their postseason berth when the season ends.
The 2019-20 season of course did not have a standard postseason, but if it had then the Thanksgiving trend would have proved even more prophetic in a shortened campaign. Last year, in which teams were limited to between 68 and 71 games apiece prior to the early termination of the regular season, the Thanksgiving standings would have predicted 13 of 16 playoff teams in the standard format. Of the three teams that would have slid out of the postseason, the Florida Panthers trailed the Toronto Maple Leafs by .014 points percentage in the Atlantic Division and the Winnipeg Jets missed out by a measly .001 points percentage behind the Calgary Flames as the final Western Conference wild card. The Thanksgiving standings were that close to predicting 15 of 16 playoff teams in the shortened season, with the unexpected slow start for the Vegas Golden Knights and hot start for the Arizona Coyotes being the other unsurprising course correction.
But how does this trend impact a season that didn’t even begin until well after American Thanksgiving? Based on total games played by Thanksgiving over the past few seasons, Thanksgiving represents about the 30% progress through the NHL season. In the current 56-game season, that comes out to about the 17-game mark. Although postponements and rescheduling have created a wide discrepancy in games played among teams this year, the league as a whole passed that 17-game average on Saturday: Happy Thanksgiving. Admittedly, the 2020-21 campaign does have a different playoff model as well, one that is somewhat stricter than the last few years without the fallback of a wildcard spot for a team on the fifth-place fringe in their division. Yet, it is still a 16-team postseason and the Thanksgiving trend should hold. Using points percentage to rank the standings (the stat may end up determining playoff position for a second consecutive season anyhow) and adjusting for the season’s makeshift divisions, here is the current “Thanksgiving” outlook:
North Division East Division
Toronto Maple Leafs (.789) Boston Bruins (.733)
Montreal Canadiens (.625) Philadelphia Flyers (.679)
Winnipeg Jets (.618) Washington Capitals (.594)
Edmonton Oilers (.600) Pittsburgh Penguins (.594)____
Calgary Flames (.472) New Jersey Devils (.583)
Vancouver Canucks (.405) New York Islanders (.559)
Ottawa Senators (.237) New York Rangers (.469)
Buffalo Sabres (.429)
West Division Central Division
Vegas Golden Knights (.700) Carolina Hurricanes (.781)
Colorado Avalanche (.679) Florida Panthers (.750)
St. Louis Blues (.611) Tampa Bay Lightning (.700)
Minnesota Wild (.571) Dallas Stars (.583)
Los Angeles Kings (.531) Chicago Blackhawks (.579)
Arizona Coyotes (.500) Columbus Blue Jackets (.526)
San Jose Sharks (.500) Nashville Predators (.412)
Anaheim Ducks (.417) Detroit Red Wings (.325)
Now this begs the question, especially seeing how accurate the Thanksgiving standings were in last year’s shortened season but also accounting for the many disruptions for a number of teams early this season, who is the trend currently overlooking? Which teams currently outside the playoff picture, if any, do you think will make the postseason when all is said and done later this season? Use the comments section below as well to discuss which teams may fall out of the postseason and whether you feel the Thanksgiving trend will apply this season.
Olli Jokinen Hired As Head Coach Of Liiga’s Jukurit
Who needs coaching experience when you have 17 seasons of NHL playing experience on your resume? Jukurit of the Liiga, the top pro level in Finland, has announced that former NHL star Olli Jokinen has been hired as the club’s head coach beginning next season, inking two-year deal with a third option year. Jokinen, who retired from the NHL in 2015, is the founder and head coach of the South Florida Hockey Academy youth program, but has not coached at the professional or junior level.
Jokinen, 42, had enough talent as a player, as well as the respect of his teammates, coaches, and competitors, to warrant this major career move. The 1997 No. 3 overall pick began played his developmental hockey at home in Finland, but jumped to North America to join the Los Angeles Kings right after he was drafted. Thus began an 18-year pro career that included 1,231 NHL games (eight 82-game seasons) with ten different organizations, resulting in 750 career points, an All-Star nod, and many other accolades. Of all of his NHL stops, Jokinen spent the most time with the Florida Panthers, suiting up for the team for seven seasons, including four as captain. Jokinen was also a mainstay on Finland’s international entries, winning a World Junior gold medal and a number of other Olympic and World Championship medals.
Jokinen returned to his adopted home of Florida after retirement and has been working on the other side of the game, coaching top U-16 players at the AAA level in Coral Springs. His own nephew, Sami Jokinen, is a recent graduate of the program and is playing junior hockey for KalPa in Finland. Perhaps he will play for his uncle again in the future as Jokinen now take a major step forward in his coaching career with Jukurit. The team’s history is fitting for Jokinen, as they too are relatively new to the Liiga. A former Mestis powerhouse, Jukurit moved to the Liiga in 2016-17. It has been a difficult transition, as they have missed the playoffs in each of their first four seasons and appear likely to do so again this year. The club is currently in 13th (out of 15) and nine points out of even a play-in postseason berth despite having played several more games. Jukurit has not finished above 13th in the final standings since their first Liiga season.
Fortunately, the addition of Jokinen is not only just for his coaching potential. The veteran NHLer will also be the new face of the franchise when it comes to recruiting free agents and prospects. With upwards of 16 players on expiring contracts or loans unlikely to be back next season, the Jukurit roster should look very different next season and with Jokinen’s help could be much-improved. With Jokinen leading the team and NHL prospects Axel Rindell (TOR) and Henri Nikkanen (WPG) as centerpieces, Jukurit hopes to turn the page on their franchise history and become Liiga contenders.
COVID Protocol Related Absences: 02/13/21
Each day, the NHL will publicly release the list of players that are unavailable to their respective teams due to being in COVID-19 protocol. On a positive note, no new players have been put on the list, but quite a few have been removed from the list. The Los Angeles Kings list is being put together now, but there has been a report from John Hoven that both Blake Lizotte and Andreas Athanasiou are both off the list:
Arizona – John Hayden
Buffalo – Dylan Cozens, Rasmus Dahlin, Curtis Lazar, Jake McCabe, Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Montour, Tobias Rieder, Rasmus Ristolainen
Colorado – Samuel Girard, Tyson Jost, Gabriel Landeskog
Detroit – Calvin Pickard
Los Angeles – TBA
Minnesota – Nick Bonino, Jonas Brodin, Ian Cole, Brad Hunt, Victor Rask, Carson Soucy, Nico Sturm, Cam Talbot
New Jersey – Nathan Bastian, Jesper Bratt, Connor Carrick, Eric Comrie, Nikita Gusev, Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, Dmitry Kulikov, Damon Severson, Ty Smith, Matt Tennyson, Sami Vatanen, Travis Zajac
NY Rangers – Filip Chytil
Philadelphia – Justin Braun, Morgan Frost, Claude Giroux, Travis Sanheim, Jakub Voracek, Scott Laughton, Oskar Lindblom*
Tampa Bay – Steven Stamkos
Vegas – Tomas Nosek
As a reminder, inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the list is are the following:
(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol
Players removed today: Taylor Hall (Sabres), Ryan Carpenter (Chicago), Andreas Johnsson (Devils), Janne Kuokkanen (Devils), Michael McLeod (Devils), Kyle Palmieri (Devils), Pavel Zacha (Devils); Anthony Duclair (Panthers), Jesse Puljujarvi (Oilers), , Marcus Johansson (Wild), Jared Spurgeon (Wild), Joel Eriksson Ek (Wild), Nick Bjugstad (Wild)
Ryan Lomberg Clears Waivers
Saturday: Lomberg has cleared waivers, reports Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman. Florida Hockey Now’s George Richards adds that the winger is expected to be assigned to the taxi squad.
Friday: The Florida Panthers have placed Ryan Lomberg on waivers, according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet. The 26-year-old has played just a single game this season.
Markus Nutivaara was activated to the roster and played for the first time last night, taking away one of the open spots that the team was moving players in and out of. Waiving Lomberg will allow them to move him back and forth whenever needed, opening up roster sports as required. The undersized forward faces little risk of claim, given he’s played in only 12 career NHL games and is still looking for his second point. No, Lomberg isn’t around for his offense, but with a two-year one-way guarantee, it seems unlikely that anyone will snatch him up.
In fact, it seems unlikely that any depth skater will be claimed at this point in the season unless it’s a dire situation on the other end. Of the dozens of players that have been through waivers since the start of the season, only goaltenders—Anton Forsberg, Troy Grosenick, and Aaron Dell—have been claimed. Luca Sbisa and Rudolfs Balcers were both snatched in the flood of cuts before the season started, but now that things are chugging along, players have moved through the wire untouched.
NHL Postpones Another Carolina Hurricanes Game
The NHL has decided to postpone another Carolina Hurricanes game, moving tomorrow’s game against the Tampa Bay Lightning to next month. The Hurricanes are still dealing with an outbreak of COVID-19 and have now had four games postponed. The league also announced the rescheduling of seven games, including those already missed between the Hurricanes and Florida Panthers. As a result, the Panthers, who also had games rescheduled at the beginning of the season thanks to an outbreak on the Dallas Stars, now have 54 games scheduled in the next 102 days.
The changes are as follows:
Game #52, Carolina at Nashville, originally scheduled for Jan. 19, is now scheduled for Tuesday, March 2 at 8 p.m. ET
Game #62, Florida at Carolina, originally scheduled for Jan. 21, is now scheduled for Wednesday, Feb. 17 at 5 p.m. ET
Game #76, Florida at Carolina, originally scheduled for Jan. 23, is now scheduled for Sunday, March 7 at 5 p.m. ET
Game #97, Tampa Bay at Carolina, originally scheduled for Jan. 26, is now scheduled for Monday, Feb. 22 at 7 p.m. ET
Game #255, Columbus at Carolina, originally scheduled for Feb. 16, is now scheduled for Monday, Feb. 15 at 7 p.m. ET
Game #256, Florida at Tampa Bay, originally scheduled for Feb. 16, is now scheduled for Monday, Feb. 15 at 7 p.m. ET
Game #296, Carolina at Tampa Bay, originally scheduled for Feb. 22, is now scheduled for Wednesday, Feb. 24 at 5 p.m. ET
Taxi Squad Shuffle: 1/23/21
It appears as though there will be daily movement this season between the active roster and taxi squad. Although some major names may be highlighted in separate articles, this is where you’ll find the majority of shuffle news each day.
- The Canadiens announced (Twitter link) that they have recalled winger Corey Perry from the taxi squad. He’s expected to make his Montreal debut today against Vancouver with Joel Armia out with a concussion and Paul Byron questionable with a foot injury.
- Ville Heinola is heading back to Winnipeg’s taxi squad as the Jets announced (Twitter links) that the blueliner has been sent down to make room for Dylan DeMelo’s return to the lineup. Heinola logged just over 14 minutes in his season debut on Thursday against Ottawa. Anton Forsberg was added to the active roster after passing through his quarantine period which allowed them to send Mikhail Berdin to AHL Manitoba. Winnipeg also recalled center David Gustafsson from the taxi squad while designating newly-acquired Pierre-Luc Dubois as a non-roster player.
- The Senators announced (Twitter link) that they have recalled Micheal Haley from the taxi squad. The rugged winger will take the place of Tim Stutzle who was placed on IR retroactive to January 16. Today would mark the seven-day requirement to be on there so he’ll be eligible to be activated at any time.
- The Maple Leafs announced (via Twitter) that they’ve added center Travis Boyd to their active roster and that he will join the team for their upcoming road trip. The 27-year-old had 10 points in just 24 games with Washington last season but cleared waivers at the end of training camp.
- Lias Andersson’s time with the taxi squad was short-lived as the Kings revealed (Twitter link) that he has been recalled to the active roster. It’s the third time he has been recalled already this season and despite going back and forth, the center has played in two games with Los Angeles in the early going.
- Samuel Morin is on this list for the third straight day as the Flyers announced (via Twitter) they’ve promoted him from the taxi squad once again. He’s trying to convert himself into a winger after playing defense throughout his career up until this season but has yet to suit up in 2020-21.
- With AHL training camps getting underway, the Panthers have sent defensemen Brady Keeper and Riley Stillman to Syracuse, per a release from the Crunch. Stillman has played once with Florida this season, logging nearly 17 minutes back on Tuesday while Keeper has been with the taxi squad since the start of the season.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Florida Panthers
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2020-21 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Florida Panthers
Current Cap Hit: $78,081,662 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Eetu Luostarinen (two years, $898K)
D Riley Stillman (one year, $773K)
F Owen Tippett (two years, $863K)
Potential Bonuses
Tippett: $850K
Luostarinen somewhat surprisingly made the team out of training camp and has made an early impact on the third line. If he’s able to hold down that spot for this season and into next, he’ll be in a good spot for a small raise but it’s far too early to forecast that. Tippett had a decent first pro season, one that was mostly spent in the minors. Like Luostarinen, there’s a definite path to a raise at the end of his deal but he will need to show that he’s capable of being a full-time player first.
Stillman established himself as a regular in the second half of last season but some of the defensive additions and his waiver exemption could work against him. If he winds up being shuffled to and from the taxi squad (where he currently sits), he’ll go from someone that could get a two-year deal at a small raise to one that will likely be settling for close to his qualifying offer.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
G Chris Driedger ($850K, UFA)
F Anthony Duclair ($1.7MM, RFA)
D Gustav Forsling ($700K, RFA)
F Vinnie Hinostroza ($1MM, UFA)
D Noah Juulsen ($700K, RFA)
F Alexander Wennberg ($2.25MM, UFA)
Wennberg was bought out by Columbus after a third straight tough season with Columbus but did relatively well for himself on the open market compared to others who suffered a similar fate. He’s still young enough where a bounce-back season could help position him for a multi-year deal with a raise – likely not as much as he was getting on his last deal ($4.9MM) but an increase nonetheless. Duclair leaving Ottawa was one of the bigger surprises after the Sens didn’t want to risk an arbitration hearing. The winger had to settle for less than expected and with him being arbitration-eligible again, he may be more inclined to agree to a deal to avoid unrestricted free agency next summer. Hinostroza showed flashes of offensive upside with Arizona but his arbitration eligibility hurt him as he was instead non-tendered in October. He’s in a spot where if he can work his way up the lineup a bit, he’ll position himself for a small increase but otherwise, he’ll stay around this salary level.
Forsling and Juulsen were both added off waivers in training camp. While Forsling has a reasonable amount of NHL experience, he’s someone that is going to hang around the minimum salary until he can establish himself as a regular. As for Juulsen, injuries have cost him nearly two years of development. It will be hard for him to step into a regular role which will have him in line for a minimal raise at most this summer.
Driedger had been a career minor leaguer until last year where he played quite well, albeit in a limited sample size of just a dozen appearances. That gave him the backup spot heading into this season, his first real opportunity. Even in a shortened year, a decent showing could have him double his AAV given the higher demand for backups in recent seasons.
Two Years Remaining
F Noel Acciari ($1.67MM, UFA)
F Aleksander Barkov ($5.9MM, UFA)
F Ryan Lomberg ($725K, UFA)
D Markus Nutivaara ($2.7MM, UFA)
D Anton Stralman ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Frank Vatrano ($2.533MM, UFA)
F Carter Verhaeghe ($1MM, UFA)
Barkov’s situation has come in recent days when it was revealed that teams were calling to inquire if he may be available; those were quickly rebuffed by GM Bill Zito. Still, it suggested that the perception around the league may be that they think it’s unlikely that Florida’s franchise center will opt to sign an extension when this deal expires. The Panthers have benefitted from being at a well below-market rate for several years now and it stands to reason that he’ll jump past the $10MM mark on his next contract given his elite two-way game and the fact he’d be hitting the open market at the age of 26 in the prime of his career. He’ll immediately jump to the top of the UFA class for 2022 if he makes it that far.
Vatrano had a career year in his first full season with Florida after coming over from Boston, allowing him to get this deal which nearly tripled his previous AAV. He followed that up with an improved 2019-20 campaign and while that normally would mean another raise would be in his future, what happened to middle-six wingers in free agency makes that outcome a bit less likely. Even with a deflated market, a dip would be minimal though. Acciari was one of the more surprising 20-goal scorers last season (his first after joining them from the Bruins) as he’d had just 18 in his entire career before then. If it is indeed a sign of things to come, he’ll be well-positioned in free agency as the fact he can play down the middle would bolster his value. If he goes back to being more of a checker though, he could be looking at a small cut. Verhaeghe is an interesting pickup. He has played heavy minutes in the early going and done well. It’s obviously still early but Florida is hoping it could be another Jonathan Marchessault situation where the player leaves Tampa Bay and with a bigger opportunity, becomes a key player. Verhaeghe, meanwhile, is hoping such a scenario would lead to a top-six payday, much like Marchessault got. Lomberg is filling a depth role, one that should stay at a similar price point down the road.
Stralman was brought in to try to solidify Florida’s defense a year ago and that simply didn’t happen. He didn’t have an overly poor season but it was a quiet year and their defensive issues persisted. His next deal will carry 35-plus caveats so he’ll likely be going year-to-year moving forward, likely at a considerably lower salary as well. Nutivaara was brought in from Columbus to bolster their third pairing. He has a high price tag for someone that’s ideally a number six option though with their cap room, it’s a premium they can easily afford.
Three Years Remaining
F Brett Connolly ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Radko Gudas ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Patric Hornqvist ($5.3MM, UFA)
F Jonathan Huberdeau ($5.9MM, UFA)
D MacKenzie Weegar ($3.25MM, UFA)
D Keith Yandle ($6.35MM, UFA)
Huberdeau has turned into another bargain for the Panthers, providing top-line production for a second-line price tag. Free agency wasn’t kind to wingers this offseason but that should change by the time he hits the open market which should have him in a spot to add another couple of million to his AAV. Hornqvist was brought in to give them some more grit up front but he’s on the downswing of his career (despite the hot start this season) and his style of play has left him susceptible to injuries in recent years. That combination makes it likely that his next deal (which also will be a 35-plus pact) will be a much smaller one. Connolly did relatively well in his first season with Florida with 33 points. It’s an above-market contract based on the most recent free agent market but they should still get a good return if he can stay around that point range.
Yandle’s situation has been well-documented. After it looked like he’d be a healthy scratch, he has played in both games so far, albeit in a more limited role and actually has recorded points in each of them. Nevertheless, it’s clear that it’s a contract they wouldn’t mind not having on the books but in this market, finding a taker will be tricky. Weegar has worked his way up from a role player to a top-four piece and that price tag for that role is a below-market one. Is he a top-four option if he wasn’t in Florida? That is debatable but as long as their back end stays as is, they’ll get a good return on this contract. Gudas was also brought in to reshape their third pairing with Florida paying a premium in terms of salary and probably term as well for his physicality.
Jonathan Ang Placed On Unconditional Waivers
The Florida Panthers have placed Jonathan Ang on unconditional waivers according to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic. The 22-year-old forward is in the final year of his entry-level deal and will likely be ticketed for a mutual contract termination should he clear tomorrow.
Drafted in the fourth round in 2016, Ang had been a young star for the Peterborough Petes of the OHL, scoring 21 goals and 49 points in his draft year. It appeared as though there was a lot more offensive upside to the undersized center, but Ang only marginally improved his scoring output the next two seasons. Still, after signing an entry-level contract in 2017, he made his professional debut in the 2018-19 season and scored 25 points in 75 games for the Springfield Thunderbirds of the AHL. Last year, he recorded 21 points in 49 games, a much better pace but still not the level that some had hoped he would reach.
Now, should the contract termination go through, he’ll be an unrestricted free agent allowed to pursue other opportunities around the globe. Perhaps a European stint would allow him to continue his development, or perhaps another minor league team will snatch him up. For now, it appears as though his days with the Panthers organization are over.
More Carolina Hurricanes Games Postponed
12:00pm: The league has officially postponed the Hurricanes’ next two games. They have also released the following statement:
As an appropriate precaution, the team’s training facilities have been closed, effective immediately, and will remain closed for Players until further notice. The League is in the process of reviewing and revising the Hurricanes’ regular season schedule. The Hurricanes organization has, and will continue to follow, all recommended guidelines aimed at protecting the health and safety of its Players, staff and community at large as set by the NHL, local, state and national agencies.
9:55am: The Carolina Hurricanes did not play last night due to several key players testing positive for COVID-19, the second half of a two-game series with the Nashville Predators postponed indefinitely. Now, Luke DeCock of the Raleigh News & Observer reports that the team’s next two games will also be postponed. Though the league has not announced it officially, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic has also heard this possibility, meaning the Florida Panthers won’t be coming in for games tomorrow and Saturday.
The Panthers of course already saw their schedule changed when the Dallas Stars had a training camp outbreak, leading to the postponement of several early-season games. Florida has only played twice and now will likely have to wait until next Tuesday, Jan 26 to continue their 56-game campaign.
Jordan Staal, who tested positive last week, was joined by Warren Foegele, Jordan Martinook, Jaccob Slavin, and Teuvo Teravainen on yesterday’s COVID Protocol Related Absences list. Staal remains in Detroit isolating where his test was taken, while the other four have been left in Nashville for the time being.
Whether the Hurricanes will be able to resume their season in time for the Tampa Bay series next week is not clear at this point.