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Expansion

Los Angeles Kings Acquire Viktor Arvidsson

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The NHL trade market has been slow to this point, with many teams wary of making big moves that could upset their plans ahead of the Expansion Draft later this month.  However, a move was made today as Nashville announced that they have dealt scoring winger Viktor Arvidsson to Los Angeles. The Predators will receive L.A.’s 2021 second-round pick, No. 40 overall, and a 2022 third-round pick. Though the deal may lack excitement with none of the Kings’ high profile prospects going the other way, it is a solid return for Nashville, who need to restock their system. According to The Athletic’s draft pick value chart, the Kings’ second-rounder this year plus a presumptive top-half third-rounder next year is equivalent to a late first-round pick.

Arvidsson, 28, has cracked 30 goals and 60 points twice in his six-year NHL career, showing dangerous scoring ability. Even as his numbers have tailed off the past two seasons, he has maintained a half-point per-game scoring mark in all five of his full NHL seasons. It is also worth noting that his 6.6% shooting percentage this season was an extreme deviation from his career average. Positive regression likely means that more goals are on the way. Arvidsson is more than just his scoring totals, too. The undersized, but hard-working wing plays big minutes, contributes to both the power play and penalty kill, and is an excellent possession player.

[Related: Expansion Primers – Los Angeles Kings and Nashville Predators]

With all that said, Nashville was not wrong to be shopping Arvidsson. At times this past season, he seemed too passive and uninvolved. While he has still put up solid top-six numbers, the Predators have been relying on him as a top-line scorer and he has fallen short. It seems that both sides will benefit from this change of scenery. Nashville will certainly benefit from the expansion flexibility, cap space, and draft pick capital as they look to get back into Stanley Cup contender status after some up-and-down years.

As for the Kings, this is exactly what GM Rob Blake and company have promised their veteran core. The team plans to add established talent this year to help take their young team to the next level and to give their long-time centerpieces another chance to win. In a new place with and with a fresh group of teammates, Arvidsson could easily return to elite production. They had draft picks they could afford to move, the Expansion Draft slot to spare, and a desire to win and now they have a capable veteran in the fold as they look to get back into playoff contention.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman was the first to report that the Kings were acquiring Arvidsson.

League Notes: Realignment, Canceled Events, ESPN

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Though the NHL approved the plan all the way back in December 2018, not long after accepting Seattle’s expansion bid, it has been a long time since realignment plans have been reiterated. In fact, since the last update on the league’s post-expansion structure, there was a complete overhaul of the league’s conferences and divisions for the 2020-21 season. However, everything will return to normal next year with the unchanged Atlantic and Metropolitan Divisions making up the Eastern Conference and finally an equal 16 teams in the Western Conference with the Central and Pacific Divisions. Commissioner Gary Bettman confirmed today that the plan remains for the only team to move to be the Arizona Coyotes. Although Phoenix is more closely located to four Pacific cities than any Central cities, it is also closer to those Central cities than any other Pacific city, including newcomer Seattle. The Coyotes may be the odd man out, but a change of scenery can’t hurt for a team that has struggled to make the playoffs out of the Pacific for the better part of a decade.

  • When the NHL announced a number of events for the 2021-22 season earlier today, there were a couple of curious absences. The league revealed a Stadium Series game in Nashville and that All-Star Weekend will belong to Vegas, thereby skipping over the hosts for those canceled 2020-21 events. The Carolina Hurricanes were set to host an outdoor game this year, but now have no such event planned. However, Bettman did specifically mention that Raleigh will get it’s Stadium Series (or perhaps Winter Classic) game in the near future. There is not as much clarity for the Florida Panthers. The 2021 All-Star Game was supposed to take place in Sunrise, but now it will be on the other side of the country and there has been no explanation by the league as to why nor as to future plans for the Panthers to host. George Richards of Florida Hockey Now surmises that the potential for the All-Star Game to lead into the Olympic break, if the NHL attends, made a move west, where flights to China would be far shorter than from Florida, a sensible move. However, he also notes that Florida team president Matt Caldwell was certain the All-Star game would belong to the Panthers, so there is some confusion. In all likelihood, Florida will play host to the All-Star game in the near future, just as Carolina will host an outdoor game, but until there is an official announcement that is only speculation.
  • Another surprise reveal this evening is that NBC’s contract with the NHL will officially come to an end following the Stanley Cup Final. The network was expected to host the NHL Entry Draft, if not also the NHL Expansion Draft, later this month. However, ESPN has now been announced as the host of both. TSN’s Bob McKenzie, an NBC contributor, notes that this has less to do with the new television rights agreement and more to do with unfortunate timing. McKenzie believes that NBC informed the NHL well before the new TV deal that they would be unable to host the Entry Draft due to conflicts with the Summer Olympics. As a result, ESPN will begin its NHL coverage with two major events in the span of just three days – the Expansion Draft on Wednesday, July 21 and the first round of the Entry Draft on Friday, July 23. Although, McKenzie believes they will use the Sportsnet feed for the latter, if not both. With Mark Messier and most recently Chris Chelios joining ESPN, the network will have more than enough talent to start producing their own material sooner rather than later.

Offseason Checklist: Pittsburgh Penguins

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The offseason has arrived for all but a few teams.  It’s now time to examine what those clubs need to accomplish over the coming months.  It’s going to be a busy summer. What is on deck for the Pittsburgh Penguins?

The Pittsburgh Penguins finished first in what was arguably the best division in the NHL this season. The East boasted the likes of the Washington Capitals, Boston Bruins, New York Islanders, and even the New York Rangers, the best team not to make the playoffs. Yet, Pittsburgh finished with 77 points for the fifth-best record in the league despite stiff competition. It seemed like Sidney Crosby and company were primed for another deep playoff run this season. Instead, it all came crashing down quickly in a first-round loss to the Islanders in which Pittsburgh could not counter New York’s smothering approach. The Penguins’ weaknesses were exposed in the postseason and must be addressed in the offseason, but the team currently lacks the flexibility to do much of anything.

Shed Salary

The Penguins cannot start adding until they do some subtracting. Pittsburgh is currently pegged to have just $3.2MM in salary cap space heading into the off-season, a projection that includes just 19 contracts. Forget improving the roster, Pittsburgh needs to create cap space just to preserve their current roster, as key restricted free agents Teddy Blueger and Zach Aston-Reese require new contract and the team will likely try to re-sign impending UFA defenseman Cody Ceci as well. Those three alone will cost well more than $3.2MM.

The Penguins could actually receive some help from the Expansion Draft – if they are lucky. Pittsburgh is likely to expose both forward Jason Zucker and defenseman Marcus Pettersson in expansion; the pair are talented players, but underperformed in 2020-21, especially relative to their substantial contracts. Either player would be a loss for the team, but the added cap space would more than make up for the departure.

If the Seattle Kraken instead grab Aston-Reese, Blueger, or Jeff Carter, the Penguins will be in trouble. Even if the pick is Zucker or Pettersson, new GM Ron Hextall will still likely work the phones in an effort to move some salary. Again, Zucker and Pettersson are both good players and the Penguins will not just give them away, but they could be had for a bargain price this summer as Pittsburgh is desperate to shed salary.

Add a Goaltender

What will the Penguins do if they can open up cap space? Hextall, a former goalie himself, has already hinted that adding a veteran netminder is a priority for Pittsburgh this offseason. It is difficult to look at the team’s postseason collapse and not attribute much of the blame to starter Tristan Jarry. The young keeper followed up a stellar 2019-20 season with a decent regular season this year, but he struggled greatly in the postseason and kept the Penguins out of several games. Backup Casey DeSmith actually outplayed Jarry this season, albeit in lesser games, but he himself is also streaky. More importantly, DeSmith is injury-prone and is not a reliable understudy to Jarry. The Penguins need a reliable veteran presence to push their young starter.

Of course, the popular prediction is going to be old friend Marc-Andre Fleury. The Vegas Golden Knights are also looking to shed salary and who better than Fleury, coming off an incredible season, to return to Pittsburgh to stabilize the net before he rides off into the sunset, retiring as Penguin. It all sounds great, but Pittsburgh taking on Fleury’s $7MM salary is an impossibility and Vegas retaining considerable salary, if any, is unlikely. A return for Fleury is probably not going to happen, but the shared history means it can’t be ruled out compeltely.

More reasonable targets include free agents  Frederik Andersen, Jonathan Bernier, James Reimer, Antti Raanta, Jaroslav Halak or Devan Dubnyk. Even a young UFA like Linus Ullmark or Chris Driedger could see Pittsburgh as a good opportunity to win a starting role and prove they can be a top option. If the Penguins are lucky, the market may actually drive down the salary requirements if there are a number of goalies interested in a great situation to win games and have an open competition in net. While free agency seems like the more viable route, trade options will be numerous and the Expansion Draft could shake up the market. Anton Khudobin stands out as an ideal trade candidate.

Improve the Bottom Six

Another area where Hextall and company have been open about their desire to improve is in their forward corps. The Penguins have no problem scoring, but their two-way play up front was a major concern this season. For Pittsburgh to take a step forward and return to postseason success, they must become harder to play against. That starts with getting better defensive play and physical engagement from their forwards. Hextall has harped on the Penguins needing to be more physical and has talked about adding size and grit this off-season, but it’s more than that. Pittsburgh was poor on the penalty kill this season, did not block shorts (particularly at forward) and their issues at the face-off dot continued through the regular season and into the playoffs. In nearly all facets of defensive play, the Penguins must improve.

With that said, retaining the likes of Blueger and Aston-Reese through expansion, getting a full season of Carter, and getting a healthy season from Brandon Tanev is already a great start to improved bottom-six play. The roster does not need a complete overhaul to improve team defense. That doesn’t mean that they can’t add another impact player though. Mark Jankowski, Evan Rodrigues, and Colton Sceviour were not the answer this season and all three are on their way out of town. The Penguins need to use what little cap space they may have left after re-signing their key free agents and adding a goalie to add another veteran difference-maker to round out the bottom-six.

Decide the Future of Malkin and Letang

What is to become of the Penguins’ long-time core? Crosby is still as good as ever and still signed for several years, but Malkin and Letang are entering the final years of their current contracts. Malkin is coming off a down year by his standards and will spend all summer rehabbing from an injury. Letang continues to show signs of slow but steady decline and is not playing up to his $7.25MM price tag. Yet, both players are still major contributors to the team and franchise icons. The new administration has vowed to stick with them, but for how long? Do they enter the season on expiring contracts and deal with the repercussions? Do they sign them to extensions this summer despite the concerns? Do they trade one? Both? There are major questions that need answering about the veteran stars. The front office does not want to hurt themselves in the short-term by moving on too soon from either one, but they also don’t want to hamstring themselves long-term by throwing out new contracts that aren’t necessarily warranted. It’s a difficult decision and one that will weigh on the team this summer.

 

 

Snapshots: Coyotes’ Coach Search, Nylander, Ak Bars

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With head coaches flying off the market and one of the top available names being the guy they just let go, the Arizona Coyotes’ hunt for a head coach is in an interesting spot. From the get-go, the word was that the ’Yotes and GM Bill Armstrong could be looking for a fresh voice, perhaps even a first-time NHL coach, so they may be unfazed by the recent run on big names. Yet, insider Craig Morgan reports that one of their top candidates is in fact a seasoned veteran. Morgan writes that Dallas Stars assistant Todd Nelson is scheduled to have his third interview for the vacancy, by all accounts the most of any candidate. Nelson has been in the NHL (or AHL) since 2006, including a brief stint as the head coach of the Edmonton Oilers. He has found great success in the minors, winning two Calder Cups, and never really got a fair shake as the bench boss in Edmonton, so in a way he would be somewhat of a first-time NHL head coach. He has picked up experience in Dallas over the past three years under Jim Montgomery and Rick Bowness and could be ready for another shot at the top job.

Morgan considers Nelson’s greatest competition to be Andre Tourigny, the head coach of the OHL’s Ottawa 67’s and most recently an assistant for Canada’s gold medal World Championship entry. Tourigny briefly coached in the NHL as an assistant with the Colorado Avalanche and Ottawa Senators over three years, but has mostly coached at the major junior level and has been the bench boss of Canada’s World Junior team the past two years. Tourigny has found immense success working with young players; he has been named OHL Coach of the Year (twice), QMJHL Coach of the Year, and the overall CHL Coach of the Year, not to mention medals at four World Juniors. Can he translate that ability to the pros and lead a Coyotes team that needs to take a step forward rather than continuing to tread water? That is the question that Armstrong must answer. According to Morgan, he has already decided that St. Louis Blues assistant Mike Van Ryn and AHL Providence head coach Jay Leach are not the men for the job.

  • The Chicago Blackhawks just gained some Expansion Draft flexibility. The Athletic’s Scott Powers reports that Alexander Nylander has been declared exempt from the impending selection process. In order to be eligible for the draft, a player must have three pro service years. Nylander, who has been playing professionally in North America for five seasons, may seem like an impossibility to avoid that label, but somehow he does. Despite playing in 116 AHL games between 2016-17 and 2017-18, he played in only seven combined NHL games and his rookie contract underwent the entry-level slide each season, meaning service time did not accrue. He then played countable NHL season in each of the past two years. However, this season – in what was meant to be his third year of service – Nylander missed the entire campaign due to injury. This means that, again, his service time will not clock. After five years in and out of the NHL, Nylander will be considered a second-year pro and untouchable for the Seattle Kraken. As Powers notes, Nylander was expected to be protected by the Blackhawks next month. Now off the board, it will allow the team to protected another forward that they may not have expected. He suggests deadline addition Adam Gaudette or reliable fourth-liner David Kampf could be the pick, while young, high-upside assets Brandon Hagel and Henrik Borgstrom should now be locks.
  • The KHL’s Ak Bars Kazan has succeeded in keeping a pair of drafted prospects away from their NHL teams for a while longer. The team announced that they have re-signed Columbus’ Dmitri Voronkov and Anaheim’s Artyom Galimov to multi-year extensions. At their age, this is not an NHL career death sentence for either player, but it is likely disheartening to their teams who would like to get them on North American ice as soon as possible. 20-year-old Voronkov, a 2019 fourth-round pick of the Blue Jackets, has signed a two-year deal with Ak Bars after setting career highs across the board in the KHL this season. The impressive youngster has already played two full seasons in the KHL and has been dominant for Russia on the World Junior stage as well. Voronkov’s name carries weight as a prospect and the Jackets undoubtedly hope that he will follow WJC teammate Yegor Chinakhov to Columbus as soon as his new contract expires. There is a bit more cause for pause when it comes to Galimov. The 21-year-old was an overage pick by the Ducks just last year and despite his age has signed a three-year extension with Ak Bars. Galimov is a grassroots product of Kazan and has loyalty to the club, as they do to him after two successful seasons to begin his KHL career. Galimov has actually outpaced Voronkov to this point, showing that he too is a serious NHL prospect. However, Galimov will be 25 years old before he could ever step onto Anaheim ice and will have that much more attachment to Ak Bars. His ability should keep him interested in the NHL and the Ducks in him, but it is not a guarantee.

Coaching Notes: Vincent, Hakstol, Boudreau, Tocchet

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New Columbus Blue Jackets head coach Brad Larsen is adding to his staff. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that the Blue Jackets are set to hire Manitoba Moose head coach Pascal Vincent as an assistant to Larsen. Vincent had previously left Paul Maurice’s Winnipeg Jets staff in favor of being the head coach for their AHL affiliate, but seemingly is back to being open to an NHL assistant role. Vincent has spent the past decade with the Jets organization and the previous dozen years as a head coach and GM in the QMJHL. With an impressive resume, Vincent may see this Columbus opportunity as a way to get his name out there beyond the confines of Winnipeg in hopes of attracting NHL head coach attention of his own down the road. Vincent will re-unite with Jack Roslovic in Columbus; he previously coached him as a prospect with the Moose but he has now become the No. 1 center for the Blue Jackets. That relationship should be mutually beneficial for the pair.

  • The big coaching news of the day was of course the hiring of Dave Hakstol as the first head coach of the expansion Seattle Kraken. And while Hakstol’s role will be in the locker room and not the front office, GM Ron Francis will certainly take his opinions into consideration. After all, it was the Florida Panthers, the former team of Vegas’ inaugural head coach, Gerard Gallant, that were swindled the worst by the Golden Knights in the last Expansion Draft. Florida traded Reilly Smith and a fourth-round pick so that Vegas would select Jonathan Marchessault over the likes of Alexander Petrovic and Mark Pysyk. While no teams should be fooled so badly this time around, Hakstol’s knowledge of the Toronto Maple Leafs and Philadephia Flyers – not to mention the numerous University of North Dakota alumni around the league – could come into play. The Flyers in particular are expected to have many well-known names exposed in the draft, some of whom played their best seasons under Hakstol, and the coach may know exactly how to target the team.
  • The Maple Leafs now have a vacancy on their coaching staff in the wake of Hakstol’s departure, but the club’s fans think they have already figured it out. Yahoo’s Thomas Williams writes that there has already been an outpouring of support for veteran coach Bruce Boudreau to be hired as the team’s newest assistant. The Toronto native and former Maple Leafs player spoke out this off-season as a free agent that he would like to coach his hometown team and fans seem to agree with the match. Boudreau has had a long and successful coaching career and some feel that head coach Sheldon Keefe could use the veteran support on the bench. With that said, Boudreau has never served as an assistant in the NHL and interviewed for the Buffalo Sabres’ head coach vacancy late last month. Despite any personal feelings and fan support, Boudreau will take the top job for the struggling Sabres over a No. 2 role for Toronto.
  • Of course, Boudreau is not the only candidate for the Sabres’ job, as Rick Tocchet is also among the names who interviewed for the position. Tocchet interviewed multiple times with the Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Rangers, and Seattle Kraken, only to lose out on all three jobs. He has reportedly only interviewed once with Buffalo, who may not have been his top choice at first, but they are the only landing spot left, as the other remaining NHL head coach position is the post he vacated with the Arizona Coyotes. Tocchet is clearly a well-regarded and sought-after coach, so now that they are his last hope at a top job this season, perhaps the Sabres and Tocchet will get serious about a potential match.

Expansion Primer: New Jersey Devils

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The last time the New Jersey Devils went through an expansion draft, they were coming off a terrible season where they finished last in the Metropolitan Divison and didn’t have a ton of assets to worry about losing. The team decided to go with the eight-skater protection strategy in order to protect defenseman Mirco Mueller, and ended up losing Jon Merrill. It ended up being the wrong choice, but both were never really impact defensemen before or after the expansion draft. This year things are relatively similar, with the Devils being at risk of losing a player who may continue on in the NHL but isn’t likely to win any awards.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Nico Hischier, Andreas Johnsson, Jesper Bratt, Miles Wood, Pavel Zacha, Nathan Bastian, Nicholas Merkley, Brandon Gignac, A.J. Greer, Yegor Sharangovich, Michael McLeod, Marian Studenic, Janne Kuokkanen

Defense:

P.K. Subban, Damon Severson, Will Butcher, David Quenneville, Colby Sissons, Colton White, Jonas Siegenthaler

Goalies:

Mackenzie Blackwood, Evan Cormier

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

D Ryan Murray, D Connor Carrick, G Aaron Dell

Notable Exemptions

F Jack Hughes, F Jesper Boqvist, F Tyce Thompson, D Ty Smith, D Kevin Bahl

Key Decisions

The biggest difference between then and now for the Devils is the number of interesting young forwards that could require protection. The team used only four spots upfront in 2017 but are almost certainly going to use the seven forward-three defenseman protection strategy this time around. Hischier, Bratt, and Zacha, who have grown and developed together the last few seasons are no-brainers. Sharangovich and Kuokkanen may not have been protected a year ago, but both became regular NHL options this season. That already fills five of the seven spots, meaning only two more of the group that includes Wood, McLeod, Johnsson, Bastian, and Merkley can be kept away from Seattle.

It would have been easy to choose Johnsson before he became a ghost this season, disappearing completely after breaking out in Toronto. The 26-year-old winger had just 11 points in 50 games for New Jersey but carries a cap hit of $3.4MM through 2022-23. It very well could bite the Devils if he heads to Seattle and rediscovers his game, but at this point, he isn’t really deserving of a protection spot.

Wood, 25, has never shown he can create much offense for his linemates, but it’s hard to argue with 17 goals in 55 games. The speedy forward has continued to cash in on his opportunities and brings an incredible amount of energy to the rink every night. He is likely going to be one of the two extra spots, though there at least has to be some consideration of the others. McLeod, Bastian, Merkley, and even Studenic are all still just finding their way at the NHL level but any one of them could take a step forward next season. There is a reason why the first three were all taken with high draft picks and New Jersey could decide to try to block Seattle from snatching up an unpolished gem.

On defense, the team almost has an extra protection slot, given how poorly Subban performed this season. His $9MM cap hit will likely scare off the Kraken but even if it doesn’t, removing him from the Devils lineup shouldn’t be too much of a negative for a team that is obviously trying to go with a young group. There’s not really any reason to protect Subban, meaning the Devils could even pursue a trade to help out a team that is overloaded.

In fact, Butcher is in a similar situation, even if his contract isn’t nearly as expensive. The 26-year-old has basically played himself out of the lineup in New Jersey, serving as a healthy scratch many times this year. He recorded just 11 points in 23 games and though his minutes were back up by May, his place in the future of the Devils is extremely unclear. That means the Devils really only have Severson to protect on the back end, giving them some flexibility and leverage in trade talks over the next few weeks. If they end up failing to add anyone, Siegenthaler is perhaps a piece they would like to keep after acquiring him this season, but it seems unlikely he’d be picked over an available forward anyway.

Goaltending is the one place where there isn’t much debate. Blackwood is the choice, while Cormier meets the exposure requirements. Dell and Wedgewood are both pending free agents and depth options at best.

Projected Protection List

F Nico Hischier
F Jesper Bratt
F Miles Wood
F Pavel Zacha
F Yegor Sharangovich
F Michael McLeod
F Janne Kuokkanen

D Damon Severson
D Will Butcher
D Jonas Siegenthaler

G Mackenzie Blackwood

*Assuming no acquisitions

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Andreas Johnsson, Nathan Bastian
Defensemen (1): P.K. Subban

One of the key decision-making factors in the protection list upfront could be these exposure requirements, as only Hischier, Johnsson, Bratt, Wood, Zacha and Bastian currently meet them. New contracts for Merkley, Sharangovich, McLeod, or Kuokkanen would get them there, but as restricted free agents they currently don’t fit. On defense, Subban and Butcher both meet the requirements, meaning the team has little to worry about on the back end.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: New York Islanders

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

In 2017, the New York Islanders were one of the few lucky teams not to lose a player in the Expansion Draft, as the Vegas Golden Knights selected free agent goaltender Jean-Francois Berube. They paid dearly for that privilege though, trading a first-round pick, second-round pick, and defenseman Jake Bischoff (as well as the contract of Mikhail Grabovski) in order for Vegas to take Berube. The team was also the only one to protect three forwards and five defensemen.

This time around, the Islanders are unlikely to pay a heavy price to keep their unprotected players from being selected in the NHL Expansion Draft and they are also expected to go with a more orthodox protection scheme. Will they lose a good player? Sure. However, two-time reigning GM of the Year winner Lou Lamoriello has left his team in decent shape as expansion approaches.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal, Anthony Beauvillier, Kieffer Bellows, Cal Clutterbuck, Austin Czarnik, Michael Dal Colle, Jordan Eberle, Ross Johnston, Otto Koivula, Leo Komarov, Andrew Ladd, Anders Lee, Matt Martin, Brock Nelson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Dmytro Timashov

Defense:
Sebastian Aho, Thomas Hickey, Nick Leddy, Scott Mayfield, Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, Parker Wotherspoon

Goalies:
Ken Appleby, Semyon Varlamov

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Casey Cizikas, D Braydon Coburn, D Andy Greene, F Kyle Palmieri, F Travis Zajac

Notable Exemptions

D Johnny Boychuk (Inj.), D Samuel Bolduc, D Noah Dobson, D Robin Salo, G Jakub Skarek, G Ilya Sorokin, F Oliver Wahlstrom

Key Decisions

When you miss the playoffs or even exit early, it is easier to look toward the future when it comes to making difficult decisions in regards to the Expansion Draft (see: Philadelphia Flyers). However, when it comes to the Islanders, their current deep playoff run could make that difficult. The team faces several decisions in which they must choose between a top veteran or a younger future piece and must sort that out.

However, there are some no-brainers to start. In goal, the team specifically signed Appleby only to expose him, allowing them to protect starter Varlamov. On defense, the tongue-twisting top pair of Pelech and Pulock are locked in for protection. At forward, young core pieces Barzal and Beauvillier and captain Lee are also guarantees.

After that, things get difficult. The seemingly easy call is to protect their other top-scoring veteran forwards. Bailey, Nelson, Eberle, and Pageau are all key pieces to this season and playoff run and are all signed long-term. However, Bailey and Eberle will both turn 32 next season and carry expensive contracts for several more years, but have shown signs of decline in recent seasons. They will both certainly be contributors for another year or possibly longer, but are they worth losing another forward and missing out on using the cap space elsewhere?

If any of that core group of top-nine forwards is not protected, other candidates include reliable fourth liners Clutterbuck and Martin. However, the player who deserves the most consideration is young Bellows. The 23-year-old forward is a 2016 first-round pick who produced with the USNTDP, in the NCAA, the WHL, and most recently the AHL. His scoring has yet to translate to the NHL, but it seems like a safe bet. With more time and opportunity, Bellows could easily be a top goal-scorer for an NHL team. Do the Islanders risk that team being the Seattle Kraken?

One thing that is certain is that the depth up front will ensure the Islanders use the 7-3 protetion scheme. On defense, behind Pelech and Pulock, it may seem like top-scoring defenseman Leddy should be the final pick and he very well may be. After some down years, Leddy impressed this season and was invaluable to the Islanders’ success. He also plays a key leadership role as an experienced, long-time member of the team.

However, Leddy’s age and his expiring contract could make him a diminishing asset for the team. In his place, they could keep the younger, more affordable, and arguably equally valuable Mayfield. Initially more of a stay-at-home defenseman, Mayfield has rounded out his game in recent years and with that his role has increased. At $1.45MM for two more years, Mayfield is a bargain and would have a greater total impact on the team if Leddy leaves after next season, even if Leddy is the superior performer next season alone. Is that enough to make him the selection? Another outside-the-box candidate would be 22-year-old Aho, who showed potential last season but took a step back this year.

Projected Protection List

F Josh Bailey
F Mathew Barzal
F Anthony Beauvillier
F Jordan Eberle
F Anders Lee
F Brock Nelson
F Jean-Gabriel Pageau

D Nick Leddy
D Adam Pelech
D Ryan Pulock

G Semyon Varlamov

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Cal Clutterbuck, Leo Komarov, Matt Martin

Defensemen (1): Scott Mayfield

The Islanders’ current playoff run could very likely determine their approach to the Expansion Draft. If they feel strongly about their success in winning the East Division or if they are able to advance to the next round, they may feel that they are close enough to winning a Stanley Cup that they keep all of their top-performing veterans. Yet, if they win the Cup, perhaps that focus shifts back to the future and the emphasis becomes long-term assets. Either way, the Islanders will have to expose good players and after giving up a king’s ransom to Vegas in the last round of Expansion and already with a relatively shallow prospect pipeline and missing several draft picks, they are unlikely to make any side deals.

If available, a top veteran like Leddy, Bailey, or Eberle would be an easy pick for Seattle. However, assuming they are protected, Mayfield does stick out as the top option. The only issue there could be that there will be many teams who expose solid defensemen and don’t have any quality forwards available. A young, high-upside forward like Bellows may be hard to pass up. The Kraken will have plenty of options and the Islanders will lose a good player – likely their No. 4 defenseman or top forward prospect – but they will survive.

18 Players Exempt From Expansion Draft Due To Injury

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One of the clauses in the expansion draft rules states that players still under contract but not expected to play again due to long-term or chronic injury will be exempt from the draft. In some cases, that allows a team that would normally need to protect them because of a no-movement clause to use that slot on someone else, or at least to avoid going through the paperwork to have them waive it. CapFriendly reports that this year, 18 players have been deemed exempt from the draft:

Ryan Kesler, Anaheim Ducks
Marian Hossa, Arizona Coyotes
Brandon Dubinsky, Columbus Blue Jackets
Brent Seabrook, Chicago Blackhawks
Andrew Shaw, Chicago Blackhawks
Stephen Johns, Dallas Stars
Henrik Zetterberg, Detroit Red Wings
Corey Crawford, New Jersey Devils
Luca Sbisa, Nashville Predators
Johnny Boychuk, New York Islanders
Matt Niskanen, Philadelphia Flyers
Zach Trotman, Pittsburgh Penguins
Alex Steen, St. Louis Blues
Marian Gaborik, Tampa Bay Lightning
Anders Nilsson, Tampa Bay Lightning
Micheal Ferland, Vancouver Canucks
Bryan Little, Winnipeg Jets
Henrik Lundqvist, Washington Capitals

Note that some of these players will be unrestricted free agents anyway, but their contracts for 2020-21 do not technically expire until after the expansion draft occurs.

The biggest takeaway here is in Chicago, where Seabrook holds a no-movement clause. The veteran defenseman is not expected to ever play again thanks to debilitating injuries, but he now also won’t need to officially waive his clause for the Blackhawks to protect someone else. Seabrook’s contract still has three more years on it and will cause a few complications for Chicago in regards to long-term injured reserve, but for all intents and purposes, he is retired.

Sbisa is also an interesting name to see among the list, given he played a game against Dallas in late January. The 31-year-old unfortunately suffered a concussion and as Adam Vingan of The Athletic tweets, has still not been cleared. He is an unrestricted free agent and is now ineligible for the expansion draft.

Expansion Primer: New York Rangers

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

If you picked a team that had the least painful expansion process the last time around, the New York Rangers may be near the top. They didn’t have to make a side deal with the Vegas Golden Knights and ended up losing Oscar Lindberg, a depth player who had averaged fewer than 11 minutes a night in 2016-17. Sure, he seemed like a useful piece, but he played just two more seasons in the NHL before heading back overseas. He’s now in the KHL, a long way removed from the Rangers roster. This time around, New York is still in a pretty strong position heading into the draft and likely will avoid losing a key player once again.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Artemi Panarin (NMC), Chris Kreider (NMC), Mika Zibanejad (NMC), Ryan Strome, Kevin Rooney, Jonny Brodzinski, Anthony Greco, Colin Blackwell, Julien Gauthier, Timothy Gettinger, Gabriel Fontaine, Ty Ronning, Filip Chytil, Pavel Buchnevich, Brett Howden

Defense:

Jacob Trouba (NMC), Anthony DeAngelo, Ryan Lindgren, Anthony Bitetto, Mason Geertsen, Brandon Crawley, Libor Hajek

Goalies:

Alexandar Georgiev, Keith Kinkaid

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Phillip Di Giuseppe, Brendan Smith, Jack Johnson

Notable Exemptions

Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko, Vitali Kravtsov, Morgan Barron, Adam Fox, K’Andre Miller, Zachary Jones, Tarmo Reunanen, Nils Lundkvist, Igor Shesterkin

Key Decisions

For the Rangers, who have started a rebuild since the last draft, the key is in their exemptions. The real core of the future in New York isn’t even eligible to be picked, meaning no matter who they choose to protect, the group will still have tons of talent coming back next season. That leaves really only fringe choices, just like when they decided to leave Lindberg–who was a regular in the lineup–exposed to the Golden Knights.

At forward, there are three players who have no-move clauses, but all of them would deserve protection anyway. Panarin, Kreider, and Zibanejad make the veteran part of the group upfront and are key pieces if the Rangers expect to compete for the playoffs next season. Chytil, who took a strong step forward this season, is a no-doubt choice for protection to make it four. There is perhaps an argument to be made for leaving Strome or Buchnevich available, given they each are scheduled for unrestricted free agency after the 2021-22 season (Buchnevich is an RFA this summer, but a one-year arbitration award would take him to the open market), but it seems much more likely that they both will be protected as valuable assets.

That leaves one spot for several names, with a case to be made for any of Rooney, Blackwell, Gauthier, or Howden. Many would lean toward the latter two because of their youth, but that doesn’t necessarily matter when a team is trying to make the playoffs in 2021-22. Rooney and Blackwell are both better NHL players right now than the two youngsters, meaning they could end up protected ahead of them. Blackwell especially showed he could be a legitimate depth scoring option for the Rangers this season, registering 12 goals and 22 points in 47 games. The fact that he is signed for next season at a cap hit less than the league minimum makes him a valuable piece.

On defense, things would have been much more interesting if DeAngelo hadn’t worn out his welcome so thoroughly. The 25-year-old defenseman was banished from the team earlier this season and is almost certainly going to be left unprotected in the expansion draft (if he’s still a Ranger by then). Trouba’s no-movement clause stifles any debate over his place on the list and Lindgren is an obvious choice after inking his new deal. Once again, that leaves just a single spot for GM Chris Drury to play with, and again it comes down to a decision between youth and experience. Hajek played in 44 games for the Rangers this season but wasn’t very effective, while Bitetto has at least shown he can handle a bottom-pairing role in the NHL.

Of course, these decisions are all subject to change dramatically should Drury decide to pull the trigger on a trade over the next few weeks. That defensive protection slot especially could be weaponized, if he decides that Hajek is worth risking to the Kraken. The Rangers could acquire another player that is at risk elsewhere, adding him to what is looking like quite the formidable defense group for 2021-22.

In net, there isn’t really a decision to be made. The team signed Kinkaid to fill the exposure requirements so that they could protect Georgiev. The fact that Shesterkin is still ineligible despite having already turned 25 saves them from a tough call.

Projected Protection List

F Artemi Panarin
F Chris Kreider
F Mika Zibanejad
F Ryan Strome
F Filip Chytil
F Pavel Buchnevich
F Colin Blackwell

D Jacob Trouba
D Ryan Lindgren
D Libor Hajek

G Alexandar Georgiev

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (1): Kevin Rooney
Defensemen (2): Anthony DeAngelo, Anthony Bitetto

By protecting Blackwell, it does create a bit of an issue for Drury to fix. The team would then only have one forward left exposed who have both completed the requisite games played and is signed for next season. A quick contract for any of Di Giuseppe, Gauthier, or Howden would fix that problem though, something that shouldn’t be too much trouble. For defense, DeAngelo can serve as that exposure requirement if he’s still around, or Bitetto can take his place if the team makes a move in the coming weeks.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Ottawa Senators

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The 2017 NHL Expansion Draft seemed like it was going to be a difficult blow to the Ottawa Senators. Coming off of a strong season and deep playoff run, a then-talented Senators lineup left several notable players exposed. The Vegas Golden Knights selected Marc Methot, a top-four defenseman who had provided an invaluable defensive and physical presence to the team. Yet, Methot – who was flipped by Vegas to the Dallas Stars – played just two more injury-riddled seasons before retiring. While the Senators’ downfall did begin in the 2017-18 season, it had nothing to do with the expansion loss of Methot.

This time around, the situation is almost exactly reversed. The Senators are coming off another poor season, but do seem to finally be back on the rise. Their rebuilding roster is full of exempt talent and those top performers who are eligible can largely all be protected. One way or another, Ottawa will likely lose a young player, but they have youth to spare and will be giving up potential rather than concrete value.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Vitaly Abramov, Michael Amadio, Drake Batherson, J.C. Beaudin, Clark Bishop, Connor Brown, Logan Brown, Evgenii Dadonov, Jonathan Davidsson, Jack Kopacka, Zach Magwood, Nick Paul, Logan Shaw, Chris Tierney, Brady Tkachuk, Austin Watson, Colin White

Defense:
Thomas Chabot, Josh Brown, Victor Mete, Nikita Zaitsev

Goalies:
Joey Daccord, Anton Forsberg, Filip Gustavsson, Marcus Hogberg, Matt Murray

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Artem Anisimov, F Ryan Dzingel, F Derek Stepan, 

Notable Exemptions

D Jacob Bernard-Docker, D Erik Brannstrom, F Alex Formenton, F Joshua Norris, F Shane Pinto, F Egor Sokolov, F Tim Stutzle, D Lassi Thomson, D Artem Zub

Key Decisions

The first decision that the Senators need to make is whether or not this roster, as currently constituted, is worth using all of their protection slots on. Ottawa arguably has multiple protection slots at both forward and defense that could go to superior players, if only the team went out and acquired them. While most clubs across the NHL are struggling to protect all of their valuable assets, the Senators have room to spare with so much of their young roster exempt from protection. Ottawa has the opportunity to acquire players who would be exposed on other teams at discount prices ahead of the Expansion Draft, as they are one of the few teams with both the ability to protect them and the picks and prospects to acquire them. If they choose, the Senators could use the impending threat of expansion to step out of their rebuild and back into competitive status by adding veterans from a desperate market.

For this exercise, assume they don’t add anyone else; those questions still exist internally. Ottawa went out and re-acquired Dzingel even though he was on an expiring contract and the Senators were not in playoff contention this year. To this point, the two sides have not agreed on an extension and there has been no word of one either. However, it is to the team’s benefit to have some veterans in the locker room and Dzingel’s best seasons were earlier in his career in Ottawa. Rather than let the Kraken negotiate with him prior to the Expansion Draft, the team needs to decide if they want to re-sign him and if so should do so before another team can enter the fray. If Stepan is willing to stay in Ottawa, contrary to popular belief, the same scenario would apply to him.

Again, assuming Dzingel and Stepan remain UFA’s they are unlikely to be protected, especially if talks on a new contract have not gone far. Forward still remains the major area of decision-making for the Senators, as there are many eligible names and plenty of untapped potential. The likely locks include top young scorers Tkachuk and Batherson and veteran Connor Brown. Hard-working fan favorite Paul is also very likely to be protected.

Beyond that, Ottawa could go in a number of directions. They are however restricted by the exposure quota. Protecting the aforementioned four players leaves three spots available, but also just four forwards who meet the exposure requirements, meaning all three cannot be used on veteran lineup regulars. The leading candidates of those four to be protected are likely White and Dadonov. White has had an up-and-down couple of years, but the Senators believed in him enough to sign him to his current long-term contract. The same logic applies to the veteran Dadonov, who Ottawa chased as a free agent last off-season and signed to a substantial deal. He failed to impress overall in his first season with the club, but displayed his elite ability in spurts. It seems unlikely that they would part with either one already if they can help it. This would leave third line center Tierney and bottom-six winger Watson to meet the quota. Neither would be a major loss for Ottawa, but either one could argue for their protection over White or Dadonov based on consistency and two-way contribution.

The final forward spot will have to go to one of the Senators’ younger, less proven forwards. Top candidates include 2020-21 acquisitions Bishop and Amadio or prospects Abramov, Davidsson, or Logan Brown. Seeing as Bishop and Amadio both did little with their Ottawa experience this season and previously struggled with other teams, they are unlikely to be protected or selected by Seattle. Davidsson, who has produced in Sweden but failed to do so in North America, is probably not worth the investment. That leaves Abramov and Brown as the two most likely choices. Until recently, Abramov seemed like a safe bet given his strong AHL production, but after signing in the KHL for next season, his future contributions in Ottawa are now in question. Brown is a 2016 first-round pick with great size and presence at the center position who has shown flashes of promise in the AHL, but has yet to make an impact at the top level. Loaded with potential as both a physical force and skilled contributor, it would be hard to watch Brown leave and succeed elsewhere, but he has been given numerous chances to do so already in Ottawa.

In goal, there are plenty of options for the Senators, but who to protect should actually be a relatively easy decision for the club. Gustavsson, still just 23, looked excellent in his first NHL action this season, is a highly-touted prospect, and most importantly is waiver-exempt next season. If exposed, he is an ideal option to serve as Seattle’s No. 3 goalie next season and could blossom into an NHL starter. Unless the Senators want to use him as bait to draw the Kraken away from other exposed players, they need to protect Gustavsson or he will be taken. Daccord is not all that different from Gustavsson – a young, well-regarded, waivers-exempt goaltender. However, Daccord is two years older, has performed poorly in his brief NHL history, and is coming off of a season-ending surgery. Add in that he is signed long-term to a contract that becomes one-way, despite having shown that he can be a stable NHL presence yet, and Daccord is not as valuable as Gustavsson.

Funny enough, starter Murray is likely not in contention for protection at all. After a dismal start to his Senators career this season, Seattle is not touching his contract with three years remaining at a $6.25MM AAV. If they do, Ottawa will rejoice. As for 2020-21 primary backup Hogberg, he has signed overseas and the Senators have already revealed that he will not be qualified. The Kraken will not be interested in a 26-year-old UFA signed elsewhere. The final option in net, veteran Forsberg, is a career No. 3 who is also not a risk to be selected.

On defense, the decision is too easy, thus the question of whether Ottawa should add veterans to their roster before the Expansion Draft. Chabot is the lone lock and also the only player worth protecting on most NHL rosters. Waiver claim Mete looked good upon his arrival to Ottawa and is likely to be protected. The decision thus comes down to Zaitsev versus Brown: one is protected and the other fills the exposure requirement. Zaitsev was an everyday starter for Ottawa this season, but a poor one and signed to a bad, multi-year contract. Brown was a part-time player this year and showed little upside. Neither player should be protected, but the Senators will probably protect Brown as Zaitsev’s contract makes him the less likely of the two to be surprisingly selected by Seattle.

Projected Protection List

F Drake Batherson
F Connor Brown
F Logan Brown
F Evgenii Dadonov
F Nick Paul
F Brady Tkachuk
F Colin White

D Josh Brown
D Thomas Chabot
D Victor Mete

G Filip Gustavsson

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Chris Tierney, Austin Watson

Defensemen (1): Nikita Zaitsev

With capable veterans in Tierney and Watson (or Murray and Zaitsev if Seattle is struggling to hit the cap floor), the Senators could provide an NHL veteran to the Seattle roster. The odds-on favorite in that scenario is Tierney, as the Kraken will not have many skilled centers to choose from in the draft. More likely though, it will be one of Ottawa’s young prospect forwards who is selected. Of the group, Abramov may still be the most attractive and his KHL commitment for next season could actually be seen as a benefit. The Kraken must select 30 players, most of whom are not waiver-exempt, but can only have 23 players on the roster. A talented scoring forward playing overseas next season is a safe way to add future potential that also doesn’t need a roster spot and can’t be stolen on waivers. Abramov could return in a year or two and step right into a starting role.

As noted, Daccord could also be attractive as a minor league goaltending option for the Kraken, who will have few players that can safely clear waivers and could value that depth in net with Daccord, who brings experience and a track record of success in the NCAA and AHL. His NHL numbers are a concern, but he would have another year to develop in the minors before Seattle had to decide on giving him a roster spot or risking him on waivers.

The other option for Seattle would be to negotiate with one of Ottawa’s impending free agent forwards. Without a ton of options to select from the active roster, instead agreeing to terms with a Dzingel or Stepan could be the way to go for the Kraken. Either one could be a superior forward to Tierney or Watson in the right system.

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