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2019 Memorial Cup Preview

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The biggest event in junior hockey begins tonight, as the year-end Memorial Cup Tournament opens in Halifax, Nova Scotia. For a refresher, the champions of the three Canadian Hockey League member leagues – the Ontario Hockey League, Quebec Major Junior Hockey League, and Western Hockey League – and a rotating host team square off in a round-robin tournament each year to determine Canadian junior hockey’s premier team. Each of the four contenders play one another once, after which the standings allow for a semi-final and final round. The action begins tonight and continues through the week, with the playoff rounds scheduled for May 24th and 26th. As for the competitors, the Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL) play host to the Guelph Storm (OHL), Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (QMJHL), and Prince Albert Raiders (WHL). Below is a summary of each team’s season and top players for those interested in following the action over the next ten days:

Halifax Mooseheads (49-15-4)

This year’s host team was nearly a league champion themselves. The Moosheads fell to the Huskies in six games in the QMJHL Final, but will have a second chance against the team at least once in the Memorial tournament. Halifax is led by 20-year-old undrafted center Samuel Asselin, whose 86 points led the team and were a top-ten finish in the league, but all eyes will instead be on his young, draft-eligible line mate. Raphael Lavoie, who has had an up-and-down season, picked a good time to be on the up. With the NHL Draft a month away, Lavoie caught fire in the QMJHL playoffs. The 6’4″ right wing recorded 32 points in 23 postseason games, almost half of his 73 regular season points, which was far-and-away the most on the Mooseheads and second-best in the league. Most draft rankings and mock drafts have Lavoie falling somewhere in the middle ten picks of the upcoming first round and the Memorial Cup is his final chance to prove he should go earlier instead of later. The big winger plays a physically dominant game that often looks effortless, but he can also flip a switch and show off stellar skill. Also up front for Halifax are are a pair of recent Anaheim Ducks second-round selections, Benoit-Olivier Groulx and Antoine Morand, and New York Islanders’ sixth-round sleeper pick Arnaud Durandeau. Leading the defense is the daunting pair of top Detroit Red Wings blue line prospect Jared McIsaac and promising 2020-eligible rearguard Justin Barron, a likely first-round pick next year. The Mooseheads are as strong in the top-six and on the top pair as any team in this tournament, but it is in their depth that they could fall short. However, there is always the chance that goaltender Alexis Gravel, the Chicago Blackhawks’ 2018 sixth-rounder, could steal a game if the skaters fall short. Gravel finished in the top five in both save percentage and goals against average among QMJHL starters this season.

Guelph Storm (40-18-10)

No one expected Guelph to be here. The Storm, who entered the playoffs with the eighth-best record in the OHL, were down 3-0 in their second-round series against the division rival London Knights and managed to mount a four-win comeback to advance. They then fell behind by two games against both the Saginaw Spirit in the third round and Ottawa 67’s in the OHL Final to win it all. This team is nothing if not resilient and will be a tough out in this tournament. While Arizona Coyotes’ forward prospect Nate Schnarr enjoyed an excellent season, leading Guelph with 102 points and finishing in the OHL’s top-ten in points and assists, there is little argument that he is still the best forward for the Storm. Acquired in January, Montreal Canadiens top prospect Nick Suzuki has been superhuman since arriving in Guelph. The talented forward recorded 49 points in 29 games to close out the regular season and then another 42 points in 24 playoff games en route to a championship. Suzuki might be the most dangerous player in the Memorial Cup tournament, which is a major boost for the Storm. He’s not alone though; Suzuki and Schnarr lead a forward corps that includes NHL-bound power forwards Isaac Ratcliffe of the Philadelphia Flyers, MacKenzie Entwistle of the Chicago Blackhawks, and Liam Hawel of the Dallas Stars. The defense is also stout behind mainstays Dmitri Samorukov of the Edmonton Oilers and draft-eligible Owen Lalonde and trade additions Markus Phillips and Sean Durzi the Los Angeles Kings. Guelph would be the favorites to win the Memorial Cup if it wasn’t for their goaltending issues. If Anthony Popovich can find his game and that weakness goes away, the Storm are in good shape. The OHL is traditionally the strongest of the three CHL leagues, which is evidenced by the depth of talent that Guelph, the eighth-best OHL squad in the regular season, has versus the best teams of the QMJHL and WHL.

Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (59-8-1)

Rouyn-Noranda’s regular season mirrored that of the Tampa Bay Lightning. The team was dominant from beginning to end and won the QMJHL regular season title by a whopping 12 points and finished with a goal differential of +182. Fortunately for them, the similarities ended in the postseason. The Huskies continued to roll all the way to the league championship. Leading the way, regular season and postseason, has been league scoring title-winner Peter Abbandonato. Abbandonato, 21, recorded 111 points this season and tacked on another 27 in the postseason. An undrafted prospect, Abbandonato has not let the lack of NHL commitment slow him down as he has been near-impossible to stop all season. He also has a deep supporting cast, including talented first-time draft-eligible prospect Alex Beaucage, and over-agers Raphael Harvey-Pinard and Felix Bibeau, as well as Boston Bruins draft pick Jakub Lauko and Montreal Canadiens signee Joel Teasdale. Trade acquisition Noah Dobson, the twelfth overall pick last year by the New York Islanders, has also had a massive impact for the team both defensively and offensively. Dobson is arguably the best player in the tournament and could be the x-factor for the Huskies. The story of Rouyn-Noranda’s season to this point though has been the stellar goalie tandem of Samuel Harvey and San Jose Sharks pick Zachary Emond, both of whom posted a save percentage of better than .925 and a goals against average below 2.10 in the regular season. Harvey, who started 20 of 21 playoff games, put up even better numbers when it mattered most. If the 21-year-old net minder keeps up that level of play, the Huskies will be hard to beat.

Prince Albert Raiders (54-10-4)

The Raiders were just as, if not more dominant in the WHL as the Huskies were in the QMJHL, winning the regular season title by 11 points and recording a goal differential of +151, more than 50% better than the next-best team. Yet, Prince Albert accomplished such a campaign without much game-breaking talent, perhaps why they came within an overtime goal away from losing in the WHL Final to the Vancouver Giants. The Raiders have good players, but on paper they pale in comparison to the other three competing teams. That doesn’t erase what they have already accomplished this season, but it could put them at a disadvantage in inter-league play. Leading the Raiders is a player whose name hockey fans will know before the NHL Draft, if they don’t already. 20-year-old forward Brett Leason is a once-in-a-generation late bloomer who was passed over in two drafts already before breaking out this season. His play has caught seemingly everyone’s eye, as he earned a spot on Team Canada’s World Junior team earlier this year and is considered by some to be a first-round pick possibility in June. Leason’s numbers back up the hype; not only is he 6’4″ and over 200 lbs., but the power forward scored 36 goals and totaled 89 points in just 55 games this year. He then added 25 more points in 22 postseason games. Leason is a force in the offensive end – shooting, passing, possessing, and forechecking – and will be one of the tougher players to match up with in the tournament. Right beside Leason all season long has been San Jose Sharks selection Noah Gregor, who finished just one point behind Leason but still within the WHL’s top ten scorers. Cole Fonstad, property of the Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators free agent addition Parker Kelly, and another intriguing draft prospect, Alexei Protas, also play key roles up front for Prince Albert. Outside of WHL plus/minus leader Brayden Pachal, the Raiders are pretty thin on the blue line, but star goalie Ian Scott hasn’t let it affect him. The Toronto Maple Leafs’ keeper of the future has been phenomenal this season, posting a sub-2.00 goals against average and .932 save percentage in the regular season and replicating those numbers in the postseason. Gravel and Harvey may be able to steal a game in the Memorial Cup, but a hot Scott could steal the whole tournament.

Goalie Notes: Binnington, Carolina, Edmonton

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Jordan Binnington has been a revelation for the St. Louis Blues this season. A 25-year-old rookie who didn’t make his first NHL start until January, Binnington somehow managed to record 24 wins, a .927 save percentage, and a league-leading 1.89 GAA this season and has led the Blues to the Western Conference Final thus far in these playoffs. Binnington will be 26 before next season and has just 33 career appearances, yet he is a Calder Trophy candidate and undeniably St. Louis’ MVP in this amazing turnaround season. So how do you compensate a season like this? The Hockey News’ Matt Larkin wondered the same thing and explored three comparable contracts that the Blues may explore this off-season. The first belongs to a player with many similarities to Binnington, NHL journeyman Andrew Hammond. Hammond’s breakout season with the Ottawa Senators in 2015 was even more impressive than Binnington’s, that is until he lost his job to a healthy Craig Anderson in the postseason. A 26-year-old “prospect” with only 24 NHL appearances to his name, Hammond received just $1.35MM per year over three years from the Senators following his big season. However, Larkin points out that Hammond was not expected to be the starter in Ottawa, whereas Binnington is undoubtedly going to begin next season ahead of Jake Allen on the Blues’ depth chart. He also notes that Binnington has arbitration rights this season and no reasonable arbitrator would be convinced that Binnington is worth an equivalent contract to Hammond’s, which would only be about a $1.5MM AAV. On the other end of the spectrum, Larkin uses Winnipeg Jets’ starter Connor Hellebuyck as an example. Hellebuyck, another older prospect out of UMass – Lowell, Hellebuyck joined the Jets in 2015-16 at age 22 as the backup, struggled the next year as the part-time starter, and then had a breakout campaign last year in the final season of his entry-level contract. Winnipeg responded with a six-year deal worth more than $6MM annually for Hellebuyck. However, by the time he signed his extension, Hellebuyck had played in 149 games over three seasons, a much larger sample size than Binnington’s. He was also younger and entered the NHL with far great expectations compared to Binnington’s relative obscurity through a long AHL career. Thus, Hellebuyck also fails to be a convincing comparison for Binnington. Larkin finally settles on the Pittsburgh Penguins’ Matt Murray. Murray also came out of nowhere as a rookie, albeit a 21-year-old rookie, to start 13 games down the stretch and then lead the Penguins to a Stanley Cup behind a stellar postseason. Despite Murray’s lack of NHL experience, the Penguins had seen enough to reward their young keeper with a three-year extension worth $3.75MM per year. While Binnington is significantly older and a less heralded prospect, he has a larger sample size and slightly better regular season numbers than Murray, making the deal a fair comparison. Under the current salary cap, which is likely to increase this summer, Murray’s deal would equate to about a $4.25MM AAV for Binnington. So what should Blues fans expect in a Binnington extension? The safe bet is somewhere between three and four years at $4-4.5MM per year, but a Stanley Cup title could still push that value even higher for the breakout keeper.

  • According to Shawn P. Roarke of NHL.com, Carolina Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind’Amour says there is a “pretty good chance” he goes back to Curtis McElhinney in net for an elimination Game Four against the Boston Bruins on Thursday. McElhinney has played well this postseason in relief of Petr Mrazek, including in Game Three. McElhinney made 29 saves and allowed just two goals on Tuesday night after Mrazek surrendered ten goals combined in Games One and Two. At this point, McElhinney does seem to give the Hurricanes the best chance to win against Boston, but is there more at stake here? Whether McElhinney or Mrazek are in net, the odds of Carolina winning Game Four are slim and the chances they win four in a row to advance are much, much worse. When the ’Canes are inevitably eliminated, they face a reality of both Mrazek and McElhinney being unrestricted free agents. If forced to choose between the two, one would certainly think that the team would prefer to bring back Mrazek, who outplayed McElhinney this season – and is nine years younger. However, they take the risk in going back to McElhinney, who lost nevertheless in Game Three, that Mrazek no longer feels like the top option in Carolina and looks for other opportunities on the open market. After a strong season, the Hurricanes can’t afford a downgrade in net, so unless they are open to spending more on a free agent upgrade to Mrazek – a Robin Lehner or Semyon Varlamov for example – they’ll need to be careful with how the approach his confidence as this playoff run winds down.
  • Is new Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland happy to enter next season with Mikko Koskinen and (Group 6 free agent) Anthony Stolarz in net? If not, he could have a hard time attracting free agents and might instead look to his old team for help. Steve Yzerman may also want to bring in fresh blood in Detroit, but the Red Wings are locked in to Jimmy Howard and Jonathan Bernier next season to the tune of $7MM. The ink is still drying on Howard’s extension with the team and his loyalty likely lies more with the city of Detroit than with Holland. After a nice season, it would be a surprise for Howard to be dealt away. However, Yzerman will likely be willing to move the disappointing Bernier and Holland would seemingly be interested. After all, it was Holland who signed the journeyman to a three-year, $9MM contract just last summer. He very well may feel that Bernier can still live up to that contract, even after a poor first season with the Red Wings. It would not come as much of a surprise if Bernier outperforms Koskinen next season, so if Holland can re-acquire the veteran net minder on the cheap, it could make sense for the Oilers.

Anthony Mantha And Andreas Athanasiou May Be Detroit's Best Trade Candidates To Land Impact Defenseman

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The Maple Leafs haven’t hidden the fact that getting winger Mitch Marner re-signed before he reaches restricted free agency in July is their top priority.  To that end, Sportsnet’s John Shannon reports (Twitter link) that GM Kyle Dubas met with Marner’s agent Darren Ferris yesterday but Dubas isn’t willing to comment publicly on the state of negotiations.  Marner had a career-high 94 points in 2018-19 to lead Toronto in points for the second straight season.  As a result, he has himself in great shape to land a huge raise on the $925K he received on his entry-level deal.  Teammates John Tavares and Auston Matthews will each be earning at least $11MM in 2019-20 and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ferris pushing for a salary around that amount for Marner as well.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic:

  • While Anthony Mantha and Andreas Athanasiou had breakout years, Ted Kulfan of The Detroit News posits that the pair could make the most sense as trade candidates to land an impact defenseman. Detroit’s prospect depth is up front but most of their young players aren’t going to yield a top-four blueliner in a trade at this point.  Mantha and Athanasiou are also set to become restricted free agents in 2020 and will be in line for significant raises at that time.  New GM Steve Yzerman showed with Tampa Bay that he can be aggressive on the trade market and this would be one way to put a stamp on his team rather quickly.
  • Sabres defenseman Brandon Montour will miss the remainder of the World Championships due to a lower-body injury, Hockey Canada announced. The injury was sustained on Monday in their victory over Slovakia.  There’s no timetable for how long he’ll miss beyond these next two weeks.  Canada has one roster spot remaining and it’s all but a given now that they will use it on another blueliner.

Despite Tough Season, Red Wings Will Qualify Dominic Turgeon

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  • Although he had a disappointing third pro season, the Red Wings still plan to tender a qualifying offer to center Dominic Turgeon, reports Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press. The 2014 third-round pick (63rd overall) had just 20 points (6-14-20) in 72 games with AHL Grand Rapids this season while being held off the scoresheet in for contests with Detroit.  Despite that, it appears he’ll get another chance next season.

Detroit Red Wings Re-Sign Dylan McIlrath

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The Detroit Red Wings have secured some minor league depth, signing Dylan McIlrath to a two-year two-way contract extension. According to CapFriendly, McIlrath will earn $700K at the NHL level and avoid unrestricted free agency until the summer of 2021.

McIlrath, 27, was infamously drafted 10th overall by the New York Rangers in 2010, the team hoping that his uber-physical style would translate to the NHL in a shutdown role. He was taken ahead of other NHL stars like Cam Fowler (12th overall), Jaden Schwartz (14th) and Vladimir Tarasenko (16th), but wouldn’t experience the kind of NHL success that his contemporaries had. Instead, McIlrath has struggled to get into a lineup at the highest level for any length of time, suiting up for just 50 NHL games over his career.

Most recently that included seven with the Red Wings, after he found himself joining the organization during the 2016-17 campaign. The 6’5″ 236-lbs defenseman has been a regular in the Grand Rapids Griffins lineup ever since, racking up 259 penalty minutes in 149 games. There’s little chance he will make a big impact at the NHL level at this point, but his presence in the minor leagues will add some experience to the blue line. McIlrath will have to clear waivers after training camp in order to be sent down.

Sharks-Avalanche Outcome Of Interest To Senators, Red Wings

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The Colorado Avalanche and Ottawa Senators seem to be inextricably linked this season. While GM Joe Sakic and the Avalanche were cheering on every Ottawa loss as a step closer to a top draft pick, Senators GM Pierre Dorion now gets his own chance to hope for a Colorado defeat. The Senators are one of two non-playoff teams hoping the San Jose Sharks can overcome the Avalanche tonight and advance another round. That’s because of the conditions on the Erik Karlsson trade from last season, which state that if the star defenseman re-signs in San Jose another second-round pick will change hands. That pick will upgrade to a first-round selection in 2021 if Karlsson re-signs and the Sharks reach the Stanley Cup final this season.

While obviously the Sharks want to win the Stanley Cup, just reaching it would certainly make any extension talks with Karlsson more interesting. The team has already traded away their first pick in this year and next year’s draft, meaning they could end up without one until 2022. There hasn’t been any indication which way Karlsson leans so far, as he is instead focused on the playoff run ahead of him. Sharks GM Doug Wilson though has always tried to retain his rental acquisitions, as evidenced most recently by the seven-year extension for Evander Kane.

The Senators aren’t the only team watching the outcome though, as the Detroit Red Wings also have some skin in the game. The Red Wings will see their 2020 third-round pick acquired for Gustav Nyquist upgrade to a second if the Sharks reach the Stanley Cup final this season or if he re-signs with them. Again, Nyquist has fit in quite nicely with the Sharks and could be a candidate for an extension, but the condition makes it more difficult from a San Jose perspective.

Obviously the Sharks would need to win another series against the rolling St. Louis Blues in order to get to the final, but they’ll have to get past the Avalanche tonight. As they try to slow down Nathan MacKinnon and company, they’ll have some cheerleaders from the Eastern Conference.

Red Wings A Finalist For Oliwer Kaski, Libor Sulak Considering Returning Overseas

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  • The Red Wings are one of the finalists to sign Finnish defenseman Oliwer Kaski, agent Todd Diamond acknowledged to MLive’s Ansar Khan. Kaski had a breakout season with Pelicans of the SM-liiga with 51 points in 59 games to lead the league in points by a defenseman.  Columbus is another team that is believed to have interest in the 23-year-old.  Meanwhile, Khan adds that defenseman Libor Sulak is contemplating signing back overseas.  He played in six games with Detroit this past season but spent the majority of it at the minor league level, collecting five goals and nine assists in 61 games with AHL Grand Rapids.

Snapshots: Jonsson-Fjallby, Ferschweiler, Penguins

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The Washington Capitals have assigned Axel Jonsson-Fjallby to the Hershey Bears, after his Swedish club recently failed to capture the SHL title. Jonsson-Fjallby continued his development in Sweden this season despite having already signed his entry-level contract with Washington, but will now join Hershey as they try to climb out of their 0-2 hole in the second round of the Calder Cup playoffs.

The 21-year old forward actually played 16 games with the Bears this season before exercising his European Assignment Clause to force a loan back to Sweden. His regular season with Djurgardens wasn’t exceptional, but the fifth-round pick exploded in the playoffs with seven goals and 12 points in 19 games and should be returning to North America with quite a bit of confidence in his offensive game.

  • Frank Seravalli of TSN reports that the Detroit Red Wings have not renewed the contract of assistant coach Pat Ferschweiler, meaning head coach Jeff Blashill will have a new face on the bench this season. Ferschweiler had been with Detroit since 2015-16 when Blashill was promoted to the NHL job, but with Steve Yzerman now in as GM there was always likely to be some changes to the organization.
  • The Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins have announced a principle agreement on a 10-year arena lease extension, meaning to keep the franchise in Northeast Pennsylvania for the next decade. The team has been the primary AHL affiliate of the Pittsburgh Penguins since they debuted in 1999 and have experienced nearly unparalleled regular season success. When the team missed the Calder Cup playoffs this season it marked the end of a 16-year run of qualifying for the postseason, and just the third time in team history that they had missed. Despite all of that success, the team is still looking for their first league title.

More Changes Coming In Tampa Bay, Detroit Front Offices

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The Tampa Bay Lightning recently saw senior adviser Steve Yzerman head home to Michigan to re-join the Detroit Red Wings, leaving GM Julien BriseBois in charge of the ship moving forward. Immediately there was speculation that Yzerman could bring some of the Lightning front office with him, given that he had hired many of them when he took the job in 2010. It seems that speculation was correct, as AGM Pat Verbeek will be heading to Detroit to join Yzerman, while Jamie Pushor, Stacy Roest and Al Murray are all staying with the Lightning. All three have received AGM titles, while Mathieu Darche has also been hired as director of hockey operations.

Yzerman had this to say about Verbeek:

Pat Verbeek is one of the brightest minds and hardest workers in the game and has been a trusted and valued resource to me throughout my management career. He played a pivotal role in helping build the Lightning into a Stanley Cup contender throughout his tenure with the organization. I’m very excited to have Pat on board in Detroit and look forward to continuing to work alongside him.

The two have been together for some time, with Verbeek serving as a pro scout for the Red Wings between 2006-10 before following Yzerman to Tampa Bay. Even before that the two were teammates with Detroit, and obviously bring a great working relationship to their new task. Verbeek has consistently been mentioned for possible GM roles of his own, but will join Yzerman in trying to turn around the Red Wings and build them back into a Stanley Cup contender.

For Tampa Bay, holding onto some of their core staff was key. The three men work in separate divisions of the front office, as Pushor serves as director of player personnel, Roest is director of player development and Murray is director of amateur scouting. Each of them have proven their worth over the years, turning late-round picks into NHL stars while maintaining a tenable cap situation. BriseBois has some tough decisions to make over the next few months after a disappointing playoff exit, but will at least have a good chunk of his team still in place to help.

Poll: Who Wins A Loui Eriksson-Milan Lucic Swap?

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July 1st, 2016 is a day that a handful of NHL teams would like to forget. As the free agent market opened, mistakes were made, as they usually are, but this year in particular took a heavy toll. David Backes, Loui Eriksson, Andrew Ladd, Milan Lucic, Frans Nielsen, Kyle Okposo: six contracts, each with a term of five or more years, totaling $220MM. The contracts all looked bad right away and now three years later, all six players have been massive disappointments. None of those six teams – the Bruins, Canucks, Islanders, Oilers, Red Wings, and Sabres – have been able to shed those cumbersome contracts to this point either. As with most bad pacts, the teams must either give away something of value or take on a similarly poor contract to move the player. Entering a new off-season, patience is running out on most, if not all, of these players and it seems that long-awaited moves could be on the horizon.

But what if two of these teams simply decided to swap a 2016 mistake? It wouldn’t do much to help with cap compliance, but it would at least allow for the players to get a fresh start and perhaps play at a level closer to what was expected when their contracts were signed. Over the past few days, two players on this unfortunate list have hinted that they may want to leave as much as their teams would like to be rid of them. There seems to be a fit to make a deal as well. As a result, rumors have emerged that Loui Eriksson and Milan Lucic could be traded for one another.

Eriksson, coming off his worst season since he was a rookie in 2006-07, told a Swedish newspaper that he and head coach Travis Green “do not get on 100%”. As translated by The Province’s Patrick Johnston, Eriksson goes on to say that there is a lack of trust from Green, as reflected my a major drop-off in ice time, as well as a lack of opportunity when he is on the ice, as Eriksson feels he has been pigeon-holed into a defensive role. Still a capable two-way winger, Eriksson believes in his ability and promises to “keep fighting”, but is clearly frustrated in Vancouver.

Meanwhile, Lucic stopped just short of saying he would rather be playing for the Canucks right now during an appearance on Sportsnet 650 in Vancouver. When asked if he would welcome a move to his hometown, Lucic’s answer was pretty transparent:

That’s definitely something I wouldn’t rule out. It’s obviously something that potentially could happen. Like you said, things haven’t gone that well for me here with the Oilers. Especially the last year and a half. So a new GM, new coach, which haven’t even been named yet, coming in. You don’t even know what their plan is moving forward, and stuff like that. Like I said, it’s definitely something that could potentially happen… I think the Canucks right now are a very exciting team. I love what (Vancouver GM Jim Benning) has done as far as building the team within through the draft and developing players. He’s done a great job of that. I think Travis has done a really good job as well from a coaching stand point. Like I said, it’s an exciting team and it’s a growing team and you never know what the future has in store for you.

So, Lucic would seemingly like to be in Vancouver and Eriksson would seemingly like to be anywhere else. Benning has never been afraid to shake things up in Vancouver, while the Oilers are close to hiring a new GM, who will almost certainly want to shake things up. This deal, while only a convenient rumor, could happen. But is a one-for-one trade a fair swap? From a production and salary cap standpoint, it’s pretty close between these former Boston Bruins teammates.

Both Eriksson and Lucic carry a $6MM cap hit on their current contracts, but Lucic is signed for four more years versus only three for Eriksson. This is not inconsequential, as another year hurts even more on a bad contract as it additionally impacts potential buyout calculations. Lucic additionally has greater trade protection built into his deal, a problem if he continues to play poorly. The bulk of Eriksson’s actual salary has also largely been paid out in signing bonuses over the past few years, making him more affordable from a payroll standpoint. So while Lucic and Eriksson are even in terms of yearly cap calculations, Eriksson’s contract is friendlier. It is worth considering though that Eriksson, 33, has more tread on his tires than Lucic, 30, and could be less effective in year three than Lucic is in year four.

Lucic has the slight edge in terms of performance, as he has been the least bad of the pair. To his credit, Lucic has been extremely durable during his time in Edmonton, missing only three games over three seasons. In 243 games, the power forward has 104 points, including 39 goals. While his offensive numbers pale in comparison to his early years of production, he has maintained his physical style of play, logging 715 hits. In comparison, Eriksson has struggled to stay healthy with Vancouver. Formerly a tough, two-way winger, Eriksson has missed 50 games in his Canucks tenure and his injury history shows in his play style, which has become far less tenacious. Nevertheless, Eriksson has accumulated 76 points in 196 games, including at least 10 goals each season. It’s not much, but it’s a clip that would put Eriksson only ten points behind Lucic if he had played the same number of games. It’s worth noting that the overall picture looks poor for Eriksson, but he still shows flashes of offensive ability from time to time that Lucic does not.

Needless to say, neither Lucic nor Eriksson are players that any team would be excited to add at this point in time. But if the Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks were to make this trade straight-up, would it be a fair deal? The Canucks land a hometown product who is younger and has been slightly more productive and far more durable over the past few years, while the Oilers get back a player that costs less, both in reality and against the cap, in the long-term and has a more versatile game and could have more upside. What do you think?

Who Wins A Loui Eriksson-Milan Lucic Swap?
Edmonton Oilers 39.91% (708 votes)
Even Trade 35.17% (624 votes)
Vancouver Canucks 24.92% (442 votes)
Total Votes: 1,774

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