Trade Deadline Reflection: Finding Value In The Margins
The trade deadline now more than ever is a tough time to impact your team. With the tightening cap structure, long-term deals for young players and league-wide parity (however falsely constructed), finding a deal that works for both teams in a time-sensitive manner is a struggle. While every year there are one or two big name players moved, shocking deals (in the manner of Shea Weber for P.K. Subban) usually wait until the summer.
It’s because of this that fans and media alike must learn to love the small deals, the hockey swaps and the fresh starts. In these trades, teams can find a player that fits perfectly into their system and adds depth for a playoff run. Under-performing teams can take chances on fallen stars, prospects who have been labeled as early busts, or veterans who can make an impact in the development of a young player.
Though deals for Kevin Shattenkirk and Matt Duchene might sound fun, it’s often the Patrick Eaves or Ron Hainsey addition that makes a meaningful impact. To take a page from baseball, adding value anywhere is equal; upgrading the bottom pairing by a lot may be as important as improving your first line by a little. Last year, there were several deals of this nature.
Anaheim added goal scoring to their lineup by bringing in Jamie McGinn and Brandon Pirri on deadline day. The two would score 11 goals in 30 games (total), with McGinn scoring another pair in the playoffs. Edmonton would benefit from the deals as it let the Ducks part with Patrick Maroon later that day. Maroon made an immediate impact for the Oilers and has continued it with an 18 goal season this year (though playing with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl doesn’t hurt). 
Florida was only able to deal Pirri away because they’d added depth of their own in Teddy Purcell and Jiri Hudler. The pair of upcoming UFAs would each perform quite well for Florida down the stretch helping them lock up first place in the Atlantic Division.
Pittsburgh may have been the biggest winners in late-February without making a huge splash. On the 27th, just a couple of days before the deadline they made the small move of acquiring Justin Schultz. It only cost them a third-round pick (which would be #91 after the Penguins won the Cup). Though Schultz made an impact down the stretch with eight points in 18 games, this season that he has really shone. It’s been 35 points in 47 games for the former Edmonton Oiler.
It’s interesting to watch all the fanfare surround deals like Andrew Ladd, Kris Russell and Eric Staal. None of those deals worked out that well for their teams, despite the huge price tags. So when approaching this deadline don’t shrug off the little deals. They may be just as important, and much more affordable, than going after the big fish.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Arizona Coyotes Trade Henrik Samuelsson To Edmonton Oilers
Just hours after dealing Justin Peters to the Dallas Stars, the Arizona Coyotes are at it again. They’ve sent Henrik Samuelsson to the Edmonton Oilers for Mitch Moroz. Both players were selected in the 2012 draft, just five picks apart (27th and 32nd respectively).
Samuelsson was once a highly regarded prospect, going in the first round and bursting onto the AHL season as a rookie. He scored 40 points in 68 games that season and had the pedigree of his former-NHL father Ulf Samuelsson. Since that rookie season when he got a three-game taste with the Coyotes, Samuelsson has completely dropped off the map. Scoring just 12 points last season and dealing with multiple lower-body injuries has him almost listed as a bust among Arizona prospects. His skating has never been good enough for the NHL and though he’s only 22, it will be a long road ahead for him to turn it around.
Moroz, much the same story, was a teammate of Samuelsson on the Edmonton Oil Kings when they won a Memorial Cup in 2014. Selected just a few picks later he hadn’t reached the same scoring highs as his teammate but was expected to grow into a legitimate NHL power forward. Also just 22, he may still find the scoring touch that he has been sorely missing but it’s been a long three years since he left junior. In 123 AHL games, Moroz has just 22 points. Even his physical play has taken a step backwards, and he’ll need to find new motivation should he want to continue his professional career.
It’s an odd move for the Coyotes, who would be the last team expected to go after a former enforcer with little to no scoring ability. Perhaps they see something in Moroz that the Oilers have given up on, but more likely this is just a positional move as the Coyotes have a surplus of centers and the Oilers need some for their minor league squad.
Friedman’s Latest: Bishop, Kulikov, Dadonov, Shipachev
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman posted the latest installment of his “30 Thoughts” feature and as usual, it’s replete with interesting tidbits. The whole piece is well worth a read in full but here are a few of the highlights:
- With Ben Bishop nearing free agency and with the presence of Andrei Vasilevskiy as the team’s future in goal, rumors have circulated since this past summer that the Tampa Bay Lightning might attempt to deal the former rather than losing him for nothing in July. Friedman indicates that word is the Lightning are willing to move the 30-year-old netminder but that the offers Tampa GM Steve Yzerman have so far received are not good enough for serious consideration. Yzerman is in a tough spot. His team has underachieved and may well miss the playoffs altogether unless they go on a run soon. Barring a surprising Stanley Cup run fueled by strong play in goal from Bishop, there is essentially no chance the team re-signs the veteran goalie. With three key RFA’s – Jonathan Drouin, Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat – to extend this summer the cap savings the Lightning will receive with Bishop leaving is simply too valuable. At some point Yzerman will have to make a decision and the best bet might be to deal Bishop now and try to add assets in return. Those assets can either turn into young NHL-ready talent to help the Lightning on the ice next year or can be used to help entice other clubs to take a burdensome contract off their hands to improve their cap situation.
- Another pending UFA, Buffalo Sabres defenseman Dmitry Kulikov, is also said to be available via trade and Friedman considers the 26-year-old blue liner a player “worth watching.” Kulikov was acquired from Florida along with a second-round pick just prior to the draft in exchange for Mark Pysyk, and second and third-rounders in 2016. The Sabres were hoping Kulikov would fill a need in the team’s top-four but injuries have derailed his season so far. All told, the Russian defender has played in just 23 games this season, compiling two points along the way. However, Kulikov seems to be getting his game back in order just in time for the trade deadline. Over the past three games, he has averaged around 24 1/2 minutes of ice time and has netted both of his points in the last four appearances. Defensemen are always in demand at the deadline and Kulikov should be no different. Unless Buffalo puts on a full court press to ink him to an extension, it seems likely the Sabres will move Kulikov in the coming weeks.
- Friedman notes that NHL clubs have been scouting the KHL more than usual and adds that the league is considering contraction, meaning there will be fewer jobs overseas next season. This could prompt some KHL stars to consider plying their trade in North America in 2017-18. Friedman specifically mentions Evgeni Dadonov and Vadim Shipachev, both of whom play for St. Petersburg SKA, as two of the bigger names who could draw a lot of attention if teams believe there is a chance they will come over. Front offices are always looking for talent and expect clubs to look to exploit the opportunity if the KHL does scale back on the number of teams in the league.
Stars Acquire Goalie Peters From Coyotes
The Dallas Stars and Arizona Coyotes combined to finalize a trade this afternoon with four minor league players changing hands. Dallas announced the transaction on their official NHL.com website. The most notable name is that of goaltender Justin Peters, who goes from the desert to the Stars organization. He has appeared in 83 career NHL games, posting a GAA of 3.08 and a S% of 0.901 over parts of seven seasons. In three games earlier this season with Arizona, Peters has a loss in his only decision while allowing seven goals on 70 shots against.
Peters will provide experienced depth and a possible upgrade for Dallas’ AHL affiliate, the Texas Stars. Texas goaltenders have combined for a GAA of 3.35 and a S% of 0.890 in 50 games this season. Peters hasn’t had a particularly strong season for Arizona’s Tucson affiliate, recording a GAA of 4.17 and a S% of 0.868, but has posted solid numbers in the past in that league.
Also coming to Dallas is defenseman Justin Hache, who was Arizona’s seventh-round pick in the 2012 entry draft. He has split this season between the Coyotes AHL and ECHL affiliates, tallying one assist in five games for Tucson and nine points in 21 contests for the Rapid City Rush.
Joining the Coyotes organization are forwards Brendan Ranford and Branden Troock. Ranford is the only one of the two to have seen any NHL action, appearing in one game with Dallas last season. The 5-foot-10, 182-pound left wing was originally a seventh-round selection in 2010 by Philadelphia. Since turning pro in 2013-14, Ranford has appeared in a total of 250 games with Texas and has registered a scoring line of 55-105=160 with 89 minutes in penalties.
Troock, a 6-foot-2, 194-pound right wing was chosen by the Stars in the fifth-round of the 2012 draft and has spent the last four campaigns splitting time between Texas and Idaho of the ECHL. In 98 career AHL games, Troock has scored nine goals with 30 points.
It’s unlikely this trade will pay dividends for either team at the NHL level, but it’s possible that the clubs are shuffling some of their minor league depth in order to better facilitate another, more significant deal later. It’s likely the Coyotes will be a seller at the trade deadline and wingers Shane Doan and Radim Vrbata may generate interest in the weeks ahead. Adding Ranford and Troock gives the Arizona organization enough experienced minor league depth at that position to help survive the loss of one or both NHL veterans, should the right offer come along.
Trade Candidate: Jimmy Howard
With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that are likely to be dealt by March 1st.
Another trade candidate, another Red Wing. This time, we’ll look at veteran netminder Jimmy Howard, who has been the subject of trade rumors since last summer.
Contract
Six-year, $31.750MM deal. Three years remaining. $5.291MM AAV.
2016-17
In a season where the Red Wings have struggled tremendously, Howard has been the antidote to a team hemorrhaging goals. While Petr Mrazek was expected to be the stalwart in net, it’s been Howard and rookie Jared Coreau picking up the slack for Detroit. Howard, however, has succumbed to injury twice this season, but is close to coming back. The real question is which Howard will return? The dominant one? Or the Howard of seasons past, who has struggled to find his groove following injury?
Season Stats
GP: 17 (15 started): 5-7-1; .934 sv%; 1.96 GAA; .667 QS%
Potential Suitors
When healthy, Howard has been extremely good for the Red Wings. This season alone, on a team that is dreadful at both ends of the ice, Howard has stolen games while keeping the Wings in games they should have been out of early.
Dallas is one team to look at, especially since former Detroit assistant general manager Jim Nill is there. Though the Stars are trying to figure out what they are, Howard could be an asset with two years remaining and numbers that are certainly better than that of what the Stars currenly have in Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen. But outside of familiarity, there are few teams on the radar.
While Howard could fetch offers, there is one key reason he will scare off potential buyers.
Likelihood Of A Trade
Howard’s contract is a hinderance to any team interested. Still locked in for two seasons with over $10MM owed, few teams are going to bite on a deal that involves a strong performing, but injury prone goalie. While Howard’s name has been mentioned before, the Wings couldn’t peddle him elsewhere last summer. There are also rumblings that Detroit could be growing impatient with Mrazek, and may dangle Mrazek as trade bait. But that could be speculation in a season that has been disastrous for a franchise not used to losing as often–and as badly–as they have been.
Eastern Conference Snapshots: Hurricanes, Trocheck, Mantha
From the outside looking in, the stars seem to be aligned for the relocation of an NHL franchise. The Carolina Hurricanes are up for sale and their attendance figures once again rank near the bottom of the league. And up north, Quebec City, the former home of the Quebec Nordiques/Colorado Avalanche franchise, has a shiny new arena lacking an NHL tenant. It almost makes too much sense but as Chip Alexander of The News & Observer writes, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman says the league remains committed to the “Triangle.”
“Peter may sell, he may not sell,” Bettman said Saturday. “He may sell all of it. He may sell some of it. He may sell none of it. There’s no formal sale process going on. There’s no imperative for the franchise to be sold on any immediate basis, and the franchise is not moving. I hope that was definitive enough.”
While there is a strong possibility the team will be sold, the NHL sees far too much promise in the Carolina market to abandon it now. As Alexander notes, the Triangle is one of the fastest growing markets in the country and given that the Hurricanes appear to have a bright future with loads of young talent int he pipeline, it may only be a matter of time before the organization turns it around, both on and off the ice.
Elsewhere in the Eastern Conference:
- First time All-Star Vincent Trocheck is on pace to register a 30-goal season, one year after netting 25 goals and 53 points as a 22-year-old in his sophomore NHL campaign. The former third-round pick has turned heads with his strong offensive production the last two seasons but Trocheck believes he is just scratching the surface of his potential, according to Harvey Fialkov of the Sun Sentinel. Trocheck is contributing more than just offense, as Fialkov points out, taking the fourth highest number of draws in the entire NHL. He also ranks second on the team among forwards in hits and shot blocks. Florida felt strongly enough in Trocheck’s future to ink the youngster to a six-year, $28.5MM contract extension this past July and the early returns have proven positive for the Panthers.
- The Detroit Red Wings are in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time in more than a quarter-century and while that won’t make the fans in Motown happy, the development of the club’s young talent this season could represent a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season. Among the young Wings who are coming into their own is Anthony Mantha, the team’s first-round pick in 2013, as Brendan Savage of MLive.com reports. Mantha enjoyed tremendous success with Val d’Or of the QMJHL, capping off his junior career with a 57-goal season and being named CHL Player of the Year in 2013-14. His pro career got off to an auspicious beginning, due in part to a broken leg his first season with Grand Rapids but the 22-year-old winger is finally showing his promise this year in Detroit. Mantha has recorded 11 goals and 22 points in 34 games this season and is tied for third on the club in goals. Even if the Wings fall short of extending their playoff run, the continued development of players like Mantha will go a long way as the team looks to begin its next streak.
Projecting John Tavares’ Next Contract
True superstars don’t hit the open market very often. When Steven Stamkos got close enough to talk to other teams in the negotiating window last summer, it was as close as you’d ever expect a player of that caliber in his prime to get to unrestricted free agency. Stamkos eventually signed on June 29th, a day that will live in hockey infamy (due to the massive trades that also happened within minutes of the Lightning re-signing). Thus, it was technically an extension that Stamkos signed, as he’d not yet become a free agent.
This weekend at the all-star game, a player who has been linked to Stamkos for a long time made his feelings clear about a possible extension. John Tavares, the superstar center that has been mired in New York (and not that New York) for the first part of his career told the media that he’d be open to an extension come July 1st, and that he liked the direction the organization was heading. Now, whether or not you agree with him on liking the direction GM Garth Snow and company are headed in, it’s a big deal that Tavares would come out so publicly in support of at least a negotiation.
So the question now becomes what would an extension look like. Tavares has one more season on his current deal, which will pay him $6MM (with a $5.5MM cap hit) and contains a full no-movement clause. He signed that deal back in 2011, before he’d even turned 21. Now 26, any extension he signs will start when he’s heading into his age-28 season almost two years older than Stamkos was.
It’s with Stamkos that the comparison has to begin. The two were the first overall selections in back to back years, and faced each other countless times in junior. They were even teammates at 17 for Canada at the World Juniors, while battling near the top of the OHL scoring charts (with another future first-overall selection in Taylor Hall). Stamkos’ deal then is a good starting point for projecting what Tavares will get.
It’s that though that poses so much difficulty, because of their distinct situations. As mentioned, Tavares is due to hit free agency later than Stamkos and doesn’t quite have the resume of the Lightning sniper. As surprising as it may be, Tavares lags behind in most categories including individual awards and team success. The Lightning have been players deep into the playoffs, while the Islanders have won just a single playoff round with Tavares. Stamkos has two Maurice Richard trophies for the league’s top goal scorer, while amazingly Tavares has only come relatively close to an award during the lockout-shortened season.
Stamkos received an eight-year deal from the Lightning, with an average annual value of $8.5MM. Many saw this as a steal for Tampa Bay, as there were numbers bandied about as high as $12MM from the Toronto Maple Leafs. With the blue-and-white shadow looming over Tavares as well (another home-town boy) $8.5 is an interesting starting point for an extension. Even if Stamkos did take a bit off to stay in Tampa, there are only seven forwards who earn more on a per-year basis than him in the league, and four of them were just named to the NHL’s top-100 players of all time (and another should have been, but I digress). While Tavares simply doesn’t have the numbers to approach Stamkos – he has scored .92 points per game to Stamkos’ .99 – many believe he is the better defensive player and doesn’t have the injury history that the Lightning forward does.
Anze Kopitar, a center who lags behind Tavares offensively but is considered among the best defensive forwards in the game just got $10MM per season for the next eight years, and it seems like that may actually be closer to what the Islanders will have to dish out. While the real number will likely fall somewhere in between, it’s not out of the question that Tavares could get the largest annual value ever should he wait to hit the open market. Like Stamkos before him a bidding war would likely open, and with the loss of that eighth year possibility (contracts are capped at seven years once a player hits unrestricted free agency), the AAV would likely go up.
For the Islanders, signing Tavares is obviously a huge priority. But after committing long term to Andrew Ladd and having $6MM tied up in an under-performing and rapidly aging Johnny Boychuk it won’t be an easy task. The team has a lot of money tied up in players that aren’t giving them a chance at the Stanley Cup, meaning this superstar may just hold out a little longer to really see what direction the team is headed in for the next eight years.
Latest On The Colorado Avalanche
The trade deadline is just a month away, and teams are circling like vultures over the bottom feeders in the NHL. They smell blood in the waters of Colorado, with media and fan pressure to shake up the team and start again. This core, though still quite young, is apparently about to be broken up. Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog are the most common names mentioned, and Adrian Dater of the Bleacher Report revealed what one source tells him it would cost to land one of them.
“At bare minimum it’ll take young, established D player and 1st round pick to get either Duchene or Landy”, Dater tweeted Saturday afternoon following it up by saying though Sakic could possibly get more, he’d likely do it for that package. This comes on the heels of an earlier report from Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun that said it would cost a young defenseman, first-round pick and a top prospect.
For the Avalanche, who sit in last place in the entire NHL and are on pace for an astonishingly-low season total of 50 points (the Toronto Maple Leafs finished 30th last season with 69 points) it’s clearly a frustrating time. The team has three forwards who are legitimate stars in Duchene, Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon and an emerging talent in Mikko Rantanen, but haven’t been able to put together anything this season. For Landeskog especially this has been a tough year, scoring just 17 points through the first half of the season.
Any team looking to add one of the Colorado forwards has to be wary of their contracts, as both carry hefty cap-hits for the next few years (Landeskog has four years left while Duchene only has two). Both players do come with quite a history of success however, and are young enough to fit into pretty much any stage in a team’s development.
Remembering The Early Trades From 2015-16
The month between the All-Star game and the NHL trade deadline is an interesting one. While most of the action happens right at the end, even sometimes extending past the official deadline due to trade calls, sometimes big moves happen early in February.
Last season, 33 trades happened in the last few days (from February 26-29) before the deadline, but there were also seven deals that happened in the weeks immediately after the All-Star break. Those deals were just as important to the futures of their teams as any made on the day itself. Let’s look back at the seven deals made between February 9th and 25th last season.
February 9th: Toronto trades Dion Phaneuf, Matt Frattin, Casey Bailey, Ryan Rupert and Cody Donaghey to Ottawa for Jared Cowen, Colin Greening, Milan Michalek, Tobias Lindberg and a 2017 2nd-round pick.
Starting with a whopper, the Maple Leafs continued their drastic tear-down by trading their current captain and highest paid player to a cross-province and divisional rival. The Senators had been looking for another big-minute defenseman and thought Phaneuf could become that player for them.
While it hasn’t worked out perfectly for the Senators, Phaneuf has logged over 23 minutes a night since coming over and is having a fine if unspectacular season offensively this year. While his massive looks like an albatross on their books – he’ll have a cap-hit of $7MM (more than Erik Karlsson) until 2020-21 – the actual salary is much lower. The team also rid themselves of dead money in Cowen, Greening and Michalek and only had to pay the price of a middling prospect in Lindberg and what looks like a fairly late second-round pick.
Lou Lamoriello and the Maple Leafs worked some accounting magic, and have effectively rid themselves of the cap-hits for all three players, burying Greening and Michalek in the AHL and buying out Cowen after a lengthy dispute. Moving Phaneuf was an integral part of the plan going forward, and both teams are fighting for playoff spots a year later.
Trade Candidates: Patrick Sharp
With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that are likely to be dealt by March 1st.
After winning three Stanley Cups in six seasons, Patrick Sharp was finally a salary cap casualty of the Chicago Blackhawks. He went to Dallas, where he scored 20 goals and 55 points in 76 games. Unfortunately, Sharp has struggled with concussion problems this season and has played just 23 games. His struggles mirror those of his team. The Stars are on a three-game losing streak and have just three wins in their last 10 games. They’re now 19-20-10 on the season, four points out of the final wildcard spot in the Western Conference.
Contract
Sharp will be an unrestricted free agent at season’s end; his cap hit is $5.9MM. As of today, there is $2.425MM remaining on his contract, per Cap Friendly.
2016-17
Sharp suffered a concussion early in the season and has missed 26 games. However, he returned to the lineup in late December and has seven points in his last 12 games.
Season Stats
23 games: 4 goals, 5 assists, 9 points. 48 CF%, -6, 16:10 ATOI.
Potential Suitors
Leading into the playoffs, teams will be looking for veteran leaders who can score and have been there before. Patrick Sharp fills those categories and will definitely be drawing interest. Playoff-bound teams looking for a veteran offensive winger include Anaheim, Chicago, Edmonton, Minnesota, Montreal, Nashville, and Ottawa.
While Rickard Rakell has looked good on the top-line alongside Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, a veteran winger like Sharp would be a great addition. Chicago has been unable to find a new winger to play with captain Jonathan Toews, and Sharp would be a familiar answer. He could try for a fourth Stanley Cup in the city he spent nine-plus years in. Edmonton could use a versatile right-handed offensive player in their top-nine, and Sharp would be a solid veteran addition. The other three teams fall into the same category as Edmonton; playoff-bound and looking for scoring.
Likelihood Of A Trade
As a desirable pending UFA on a struggling team, Sharp is fairly likely to be dealt. The only way it doesn’t happen is if Dallas starts winning games and pulls back into a playoff spot, or if Stars GM Jim Nill isn’t willing to retain salary to facilitate a move to a cap-restricted team.