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NHL Draft Lottery Notes: Odds, History, Viewing

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For the fourteen teams that missed the playoffs and the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, they have one thing in common: they’re hoping Bill Daly is holding a card with their logo on it, announcing that they have the first overall pick.

At 7pm central, NBC, CBC, and Sportsnet will show the NHL Draft Lottery as the Colorado Avalanche lead all teams in terms of percentage for receiving the #1 pick. Below are the odds:

Colorado Avalanche — 18.0%
Vancouver Canucks — 12.1%
Vegas Golden Knights — 10.3%
Arizona Coyotes — 10.3%
New Jersey Devils — 8.5%
Buffalo Sabres — 7.6%
Detroit Red Wings — 6.7%
Dallas Stars — 5.8%
Florida Panthers — 5.4%
Los Angeles Kings — 4.5%
Carolina Hurricanes — 3.2%
Winnipeg Jets — 2.7%
Philadelphia Flyers — 2.2%
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.8%
New York Islanders — 0.9%

TSN has a lengthy writeup on the history of the lottery and how the current format differs from other versions. The biggest change for the draft is that instead of the worst team being guaranteed, at worst, a second overall pick, they are only promised a top four pick. This was placed to discourage teams from “tanking” to draft top-end talent, which hasn’t completely negated the idea of tanking as Toronto won the right to draft Auston Matthews last season with the #1 pick while securing the worst record in the NHL.

What’s new to 2017?  From Sportsnet:

For just the second time in NHL draft lottery history, the top three picks are in play. This rule was implemented by the league in 2016 to dull incentive for any team to finish lower in the standings (i.e., tanking).

The odds of winning the second and third draws increases on a proportional basis depending on which team claimed the previous draw.

The addition of a 15th lottery team, Vegas, into the mix also affects the winning percentages.

This draft is different too, since the top two picks for the first time in three seasons are not considered the “generational talent” that Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Matthews or Patrik Laine were when looking back at the one and two overall picks respectively.

This isn’t to besmirch the top two candidates, Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier. After all, “can’t miss” prospects have fooled scouts and analysts before while prospects that scouts didn’t think were as good sometimes exceeded expectations.

But before the talent can be chosen, there needs to be an order. Tonight will determine that.

Specifics: 

Time: 7pm CST
Where to watch: CBC, Sportsnet, NBC

Central Notes: Nashville’s “Red Rover” Trap, Sakic, Stastny

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As the Chicago Blackhawks cleaned out their lockers, a number of quotes were mined from various reporters. One of the more interesting ones, reported by several outlets, was one from Patrick Kane regarding the key to Nashville’s dominance during the four game sweep. From the Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus, we all learn that Chicago bench boss Joel Quenneville nicknamed the Nashville trap “Red Rover” and Patrick Kane doesn’t think it’s the greatest thing for hockey fans:

“A team like that, you kind of hope they don’t win, because I don’t know if that’s necessarily the best way to watch hockey games, and to actually have that excitement level,” Kane said. “But on the other [hand], they played good going the other way, too. They kind of sat back, but their transition game is fast, and they played with a lot of speed the other way. That gave us problems.”

Though the first part of the quote might sound like sour grapes, Kane was quick to give credit to a team that stifled Chicago’s scoring opportunities, limiting them to just three goals in four games. Winger Marian Hossa attributed the dump and chase game Chicago was forced to play as a major reason they lost–they never got comfortable.

  • The Denver Post’s Mark Kiszla thinks Colorado Avalanche general manager Joe Sakic would be foolish for not chasing after University of Denver coach Jim Montgomery. Kiszla writes that Montgomery has built Denver into a powerhouse and would be the perfect addition to a team with young players and in the midst of a massive rebuilding project. Since Florida has Montgomery lined up for an interview, Kiszla wonders if it would behoove Sakic to do whatever it takes to keep the national championship winning coach in the state. Current coach Jared Bednar, he writes, shouldn’t be retained only out of pity. Montgomery is the “real deal” according to Kiszla and should be strongly considered if the Avs are truly looking to improve their fortunes.
  • The Blues got a huge addition before their game with Minnesota when Paul Stastny returned to action for a crucial game five tilt writes Sportsnet’s Josh Gold-Smith. The Blues have a chance to take out the Wild in five games and rest for the next round.  Stastny was slotted in with Vladimir Tarasenko and Jayden Schwartz. As of the writing, Stastny was on the ice for Tarasenko’s opening goal.

The Radulov Factor: Signing KHL Talent

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As the 14 teams who didn’t make the playoffs can certainly attest, there is a fine line between making noise and sliding to irrelevance. One look no further than the Colorado Avalanche to realize that one off-season of poor decisions and a bad string of luck can complete derail a season beyond salvage. A solid signing can put you right back into the mix. Stagnation can mean failure, and of course, loss of fan interest as well as precious revenue.

This off-season, with the UFA class looking more sparse than ever, teams will be hunting for NHL talent on cheap contracts. Many teams will seek the help of the undrafted NCAAer, and with good reason. However, Montreal’s tactic of paying a steep contract for a KHL superstar has paid dividends, through the season and now in the playoffs. Alexander Radulov had his fair share of nay-sayers, as his experience with Nashville didn’t go particularly well. And an anti-Russian, anti-European bias does always seem to sneak into the conversation whenever overseas talent is concerned. Artemi Panarin had plenty of suitors, to be sure, but even he was compensated less than what he realistically deserved. In his first season, the young star tallied 30 goals and 77 points on a line with Patrick Kane. Not much of an adjustment faze.

Let’s look at a trio of names that have been, or should be, tossed into the ring for teams’ consideration in the near future:

Jan Kovar (C)  – Metallurg Magnitogorsk

Kovar has been mentioned from time to time for years, as an intriguing top forward for the star-studded Magnitogorsk. Talks to come over to the NHL have unfortunately never gotten particularly serious. Kovar scored 63 points in 59 games this past year, lead the Gagarin Cup playoffs with 25 points, and is still a decently spry 27 years-old. The Czech-born center is listed at only 5’10”, but as we have seen with Vladimir Sobotka, size isn’t always a deal-breaker. He is known for his solid shot and ability to create chances from very little. His playmaking abilities have only gotten better with age. Although his World Championship point totals aren’t fantastic, he would be a low-risk addition for any fringe team in need of offensive flair, or depth up the middle.

Evgeny Dadonov (RW) – SKA St. Petersburg

The former Florida Panther has been nothing short of phenomenal for SKA in the past year. During the team’s title run, the forward pulled off Datsyuk-ian moves with relative ease. He has previous ties to Carolina, and whatever they could offer should be matched by any other bottom-feeding team in the division – this player has the serious potential to burn defensemen for years. He could also be a complete bust, like he was his first time through. But the maturity that comes with multiple playoff runs and being trusted in a leadership role shouldn’t be under-estimated. Even in light of the NHL’s decision to avoid the Olympics, Dadonov is expected to strongly consider a return to the league. His pricetag may be an issue, however. Here’s hoping the cost isn’t a sticking point, because his remarkable creativity would be a welcome sight on NHL ice.

Emil Garipov (G) – Ak Bars Kazan

Yes, the goalie market is flooded with capable tenders already. Yes, you’ve probably never heard of this guy. Yes, no team has any rumored interest of late. But franchises struggling with goalie depth would be bonkers to not at least pick up the phone on this kid with the statlines he’s put up. At 25 years-old, Garipov is just hitting his prime years as a netminder. He kept his team afloat yet again with another strong showing in a KHL career that has been remarkably strong. His career save percentage is well above .930 and he survived an absolute barrage of shots last season with veteran poise. Garipov is technically sharp and he exudes a confidence that is well beyond his years. He also never quits on a play, which can be evidenced by scores of highlights such as these. Worst case scenario – you acquire a backup who struggles. But Garipov has shown flashes of next-level athleticism and focus which suggest that he could be capable of making the leap.

Of course, the Olympic situation complicates any potential KHL hoppers this summer. How much of a deterrent the Pyeongchang decision will be for Europeans remains to be seen, but as Radulov evidences on a nightly basis, the rewards for thinking outside the box can be great indeed.

Checking In On The 2014 Draft Class

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This season has been one of the most successful rookie seasons in recent history, with almost a dozen players enjoying seasons that would normally be considered for Calder trophy nomination. That, mixed with the continued success of second year players like Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel and Noah Hanifin has given the reins of the NHL to the youth of the game.

2014 was another solid draft class, headlined by the NHL-ready Aaron Ekblad at first overall. While many of the players in the first round have taken slower routes than those from the 2015 and 2016 groups, they found their footings this season all around the league. Some of the success stories from this year include Leon Draisaitl in Edmonton (3rd overall), William Nylander in Toronto (8th overall), Nikolaj Ehlers in Winnipeg (9th overall) and David Pastrnak in Boston (25th overall).

These are just a few of the very successful young players, but what about those that haven’t made it just yet? Should they be considered busts, just a few short years after their draft? Here are updates on the four players from the 2014 first round who have yet to make their NHL debut.

Conner Bleackley, 23rd overall, Colorado Avalanche

In perhaps the most interesting story of the four, Bleackley never did sign with the Avalanche and was traded to the Arizona Coyotes last February. With his rights in tow, the Coyotes decided to take the supplemental second-round pick that would be compensation for him re-entering the draft. When Bleackley did put his name into the draft again, he fell all the way to the fifth round where the St. Louis Blues selected him 144th overall. Injuries decimated much of Bleackley’s junior career, and he split this season between the Chicago Wolves of the AHL and the Missouri Mavericks of the ECHL. He’s still a long way from an NHL game.

Travis Sanheim, 17th overall, Philadelphia Flyers

Sanheim returned to the Calgary Hitmen for two additional seasons after being selected in the first round and exploded offensively, recording 65 and 68 points from the blue line. His playmaking ability allowed him to dominate the junior league, and has transferred quite well to the AHL this season. With 37 points in 76 games for the Lehigh Valley Phantoms, Sanheim is set for his first taste of playoff hockey at the professional ranks. Though he’s not a perfect prospect, he’ll easily get a chance sooner than later in Philadelphia,

Haydn Fleury, 7th overall, Carolina Hurricanes

While Fleury has continued to progress as a solid two-way defender in the Hurricanes’ system, you can be sure they regret not taking Nylander or Ehlers after seeing them debut so strongly. With Carolina now apparently dangling some of their young defenders to try and acquire more scoring, they could have saved themselves the trouble in the draft. That’s not to take anything away from Fleury though, who put up a solid rookie season in the AHL with 26 points in 69 games. If Carolina does in fact move one of their NHL pieces, Fleury will be sure to get a look in the next year or so. He’s still just 20, and is starting to fill out nicely into his 6’3″ frame.

Michael Dal Colle, 5th overall, New York Islanders

Everything looked good in the first year after the Islanders picked Dal Colle, as he put up 93 points in 56 games for the Oshawa Generals and dominated the playoffs with 31 more points. The next season though saw a step backwards, with only 25 points in 30 games before being traded to the Kingston Frontenacs mid-season. Rebounding with his new team, Dal Colle has still given Islanders’ fans slight worry that he’ll never become the elite goal-scoring winger he was projected as.

In his first season with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers of the AHL Dal Colle put up a solid 41 points in 75 games, but was overshadowed by Josh Ho-Sang, the Islanders other first-round pick from 2014. The Sound Tigers didn’t make the playoffs despite a 44-28-4 record, and now we’ll have to wait to see what adjustments the former fifth-overall pick makes in the summer. He’ll be 21 next season, and will push hard in camp to make the Islanders and prove that they didn’t waste a top pick on him. His skill should shine through eventually, making him a natural compliment to some of the good young forwards in New York.

World Championship Updates

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Terry Frei of the Denver Post tweeted a list of Colorado Avalanche players that will play for their respective countries in the 2017 World Hockey Championships. In addition to the previously-announced selections of Nathan MacKinnon and Matt Duchene, Frei states that defenseman Tyson Barrie and goaltender Calvin Pickard will join Team Canada. Colorado forward Mikko Rantanen will play for Finland, and forward J.T. Compher will play for the United States.

Mikko Rantanen has a decorated international career, earning a gold medal as captain of the Finnish World Junior team in 2016, and a silver medal in the World Championships that same year. Overall, Rantanen has 20G and 22A in 60 international games.

J.T. Compher’s addition displays Team USA’s depth issues, as the American forward only has 21 games of NHL experience. Compher did captain the University of Michigan’s D1 Mens Hockey team last season—scoring 16G and 47A in the process.

Finally, the Vegas Golden Knights will be hoping that Calvin Pickard gets some significant ice time after the Avalanche announced that—barring any trade—Pickard will be exposed in the NHL Expansion Draft. Pickard played in 50 games this season after Semyon Varlamov went down with a season-ending injury.

Colorado Notes: Butcher, Varlamov, Iginla

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The Colorado Avalanche are still hoping to sign Hobey Baker winner Will Butcher, but the star defenseman doesn’t want a contract offer just yet. Butcher told Mike Chambers of the Denver Post that he would rather sit with Avalanche GM Joe Sakic and discuss the matter with his parents before any offer was made. That’s a reasonable ask, but it won’t assuage any fears in Colorado about him following in the footsteps of Jimmy Vesey and hitting the open market this August.

Butcher was drafted in the fifth-round back in 2013, but is now just a few months away from becoming a free agent should he decide to wait that long. He could still obviously sign with the Avalanche after seeing what else is out there, but with his continued development into an NHL-ready defender, they’d be up against several other teams in pursuit of him. The 22-year old had 37 points in 43 games this year as captain of the NCAA Championship winning University of Denver.

  • Adrian Dater of BSN Denver has been told that the team plans on protecting Semyon Varlamov over Calvin Pickard in the upcoming expansion draft. The team must select just one of their goaltenders to expose, and it apparently will be the younger, cheaper Pickard. It seems like a very odd decision, given Varlamov’s injury status and expensive contract, both of which would likely be deterrents to the Golden Knights over some of the other available goaltenders. Pickard on the other hand would cost Vegas just $1MM next season and continue to be a controllable RFA after that. Perhaps this is just gamesmanship from the Colorado front office, but losing Pickard for nothing seems like a terrible mistake by a front office who should be looking at the future.
  • Jarome Iginla hasn’t yet decided if he’ll play another season, but he wants to. In a conference call with reporters today including Eric Francis of Sportsnet, Iginla said he’ll have to wait and see what kind of offers he receives this summer but that his time with the Los Angeles Kings down the stretch has revitalized him somewhat. He seemed it, as the legendary winger scored six goals and nine points in 19 games for the Kings and showed that he is still a physical force. Amazingly, four of the six goals were game winners as he tried to drag the under-performing Kings into the playoffs. As we detailed prior to the deadline, Iginla might still have something left to give and shouldn’t be wholly judged on the disappointing first half he had with the Colorado Avalanche—just as other talented players from that team should be.

NHL Releases Official Draft Lottery Odds

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The NHL has released the official odds for the upcoming draft lottery, which determines the order in which each team outside the playoffs will select in this year’s entry draft. The Colorado Avalanche lead the way with an 18% chance of winning, while the Vegas Golden Knights will be given the same odds as the third worst team this season, the Arizona Coyotes at 10.3%. The lottery will be held in Toronto on April 29th. The full odds are as follows:

Colorado Avalanche: 18%
Vancouver Canucks: 12.1%
Vegas Golden Knights: 10.3%
Arizona Coyotes: 10.3%
New Jersey Devils: 8.5%
Buffalo Sabres: 7.6%
Detroit Red Wings: 6.7%
Dallas Stars: 5.8%
Florida Panthers: 5.4%
Los Angeles Kings: 4.5%
Carolina Hurricanes: 3.2%
Winnipeg Jets: 2.7%
Philadelphia Flyers: 2.2%
Tampa Bay Lightning: 1.8%
New York Islanders: 0.9%

In the draft lottery, three teams actually “win”, and have the chance to move up from their finishing position. This means teams currently slotted 1-12 can only move a possible three spots down in the order, and only if teams behind them are selected. Last season, the Maple Leafs were selected first and retained their top spot, though the Columbus Blue Jackets and Winnipeg Jets hopped from fourth and sixth to third and second respectively. Vancouver, who had the third highest odds, dropped to fifth overall.

One will also remember the lottery that gave the Edmonton Oilers Connor McDavid, despite the Buffalo Sabres and Arizona Coyotes both having worse records. It wasn’t the first time Edmonton won a draft lottery, but it looks like it will be the last for at least the next few years, as they’re in the playoffs and will pick in the back half of the first round for the first time since 2005-06.

This year, the top prize is Nolan Patrick who retained his crown as the top rated skater in today’s final release of the NHL Central Scouting rankings. Though he’s not McDavid, every team on this list will be hoping to win the lottery and have the chance of drafting a future #1 center.

Chris Johnston of Sportsnet was the first to tweet out the full odds, though TSN and HockeyViz.com had correct unofficial numbers over a month ago. 

NCAA All-American Teams Named

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Prior to the reveal of University of Denver defenseman Will Butcher as the 2017 Hobey Baker Award-winner and ahead of the NCAA championship game tomorrow night, the American Hockey Coaches Association released the rosters of this year’s collegiate All-American Teams. The teams, first and second squads from either side of the country, are listed below with their NCAA teams as well as NHL-drafted or signed organization, if applicable:

East All-Americans

First Team:

RW Zach Aston-Reese, Northeastern (Pittsburgh Penguins)

RW Spencer Foo, Union

C Mike Vecchione, Union (Philadelphia Flyers)

D Adam Fox, Harvard (Calgary Flames)

D Charlie McAvoy, Boston University (Boston Bruins)

G Charles Williams, Canisius

Read more

Evening Snapshots: Sobotka, Roslovic, Karlsson, Team Canada

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News and notes from around the NHL this evening:

  • By now you’ve heard that Vladimir Sobotka has joined the St. Louis Blues and signed a three-year extension that kicks in next season. The Czech native will play this season under his arbitration-awarded $2.75MM contract. According to CapFriendly, Sobotka will earn $45K for playing in the Blues’ final two games this season. Not bad for a weekend of work.
  • Winnipeg Jets forward prospect Jack Roslovic makes his NHL debut tonight against the Columbus Blue Jackets. Making the debut extra special is that Roslovic is from Columbus, and, as Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch points out, becomes the first Columbus-born NHL player. Roslovic has toiled in the minors all year, posting 13G and 32A in 61 games for the AHL Manitoba Moose. The 2015 25th overall draft pick spent last season at Miami University (OH) where he put up 10G and16A in 36 games.
  • According to the Boston Globe’s Fluto Shinzawa, Boston Bruins prospect Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson has finally secured his work visa and can join the team professionally. The Bruins signed Karlsson to a three-year ELC a few days ago, but the Swede has been unable to play in a game due to a work visa delay. He has, however, practiced with the team since leaving Boston University. He was successful at BU, posting 14G and 19A in 39 games this season.
  • TSN’s Darren Dreger tweeted that Winnipeg Jets’ Mark Scheifele and Colorado Avalanche’s Matt Duchene and Nathan MacKinnon have agreed to play for Team Canada at the 2017 World Championships this spring. As is tradition, players on teams out of the playoff picture will begin to join their respective countries in the World Championships. Teams usually struggle to attract all the big-name players available, however, because some players would rather recuperate than continue to play more hockey.

Evening Snapshots: Avalanche, Karlsson, Nylander

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News and notes from around the NHL this evening:

  • The Colorado Avalanche called up two players this afternoon: forward Rocco Grimaldi and defenseman Duncan Siemens. Grimaldi is having a great year in the AHL, scoring 29G and 22A in 51 games for the San Antonio Rampage. He’s on the final year of his ELC, and this opportunity should dictate the terms of his next contract. Defenseman Duncan Siemens—a former 2011 first round draft pick—will play just his second career NHL game. He has 2G and 4A in 68 games in the AHL this season. As AJ Haefele of BSN notes, the callups give the Avalanche a look at how its prospects fit in with the organization.
  • The Ottawa Senators announced that defenseman Erik Karlsson will return tonight against the Detroit Red Wings. Karlsson suffered a foot injury after blocking a shot Tuesday night against the Philadelphia Flyers. He missed the Senators’ next two games, and was in danger of missing a third before his surprise return. The Senators need all the firepower they can muster as they jockey for position in the Eastern Conference’s final playoff spots.
  • Buffalo Sabres forward Alexander Nylander makes his NHL debut tonight against his brother’s Toronto Maple Leafs, reports TSN’s Mark Masters. 2016’s 8th overall draft pick has played in the AHL all season, amassing 9G and 18A in 62 games for the Rochester Americans. In seven World Junior Championship games Nylander scored 5G and 7A. His much anticipated debut is heightened by the fact that it’s against his older brother William Nylander. The older Nylander has 22G and 37A this season, and the Sabres hope that their Nylander follows in his brother’s footsteps.

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