Colorado's Asking Price From Nashville For Matt Duchene
- It’s no secret that Avalanche GM Joe Sakic is seeking a big return for center Matt Duchene. Speaking with WGR 550 in Buffalo (audio link), Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that the Avalanche are seeking one of Nashville’s top-four defensemen plus another asset in order to ship Duchene to the Predators. While Duchene would certainly give them a top-six replacement for James Neal, that would certainly be a steep price to pay, especially with Ryan Ellis out until early 2018.
Sakic Speaks On Nikita Zadorov, Matt Duchene
Before the Colorado Avalanche report to training camp tomorrow, GM Joe Sakic met with the media to discuss various things including Milan Hejduk‘s sweater retirement ceremony planned for this season. Inevitably, the conversation turned to the pressing issues of Matt Duchene and Nikita Zadorov, both of whom could miss part of camp with various holdouts. According to Mike Chambers of the Denver Post though, Sakic expects both to be present early on.
On Duchene, nothing has changed yet and Sakic expects everyone under contract to report to camp. The 26-year old center has been the topic of continuous trade speculation since before last year’s deadline, and several reports have come out saying that there is a possibility of a holdout. Duchene didn’t report to an optional “captain’s skate” earlier this month, and was one of the only ones not present for the club’s annual charity golf tournament.
Zadorov on the other hand is still negotiating his contract for next season, with the latest reports still having the two sides around $500K apart. For his part, Sakic says that they’re close enough together to expect him to be in camp, though whether that means he’ll be there on day one is still to be seen. While there has been a lot of speculation that Zadorov could return to the KHL this season if a contract can’t be done, it has seemed for a while like the two sides would eventually get something done.
Even though the Avalanche aren’t projected to be Stanley Cup or even playoff contenders this season, having players away from training camp is never a good thing. Having Duchene not report would only weaken Sakic’s position in trade talks, while Zadorov needs as much development time with the team as possible. Both players are already skating on their own, but showing up with teammates tomorrow is an important next step.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Morning Notes: Hejduk, Juolevi, Big Question
The Colorado Avalanche might not have a ton to look forward to, if this year is anything like the last, but one thing on the schedule should bring fans to their feet. On January 6th, before their game against the Minnesota Wild, the Avalanche will raise Milan Hejduk‘s number 23 to the rafters and retire it from use.
It will be the sixth such sweater retired, to go along with Joe Sakic, Peter Forsberg, Patrick Roy, Adam Foote and Ray Bourque, all teammates of Hejduk. The franchise also retired Peter Stastny, Michel Goulet, Marc Tardif and J.C. Tremblay before moving from Quebec City. Hejduk ranks second all-time among Colorado (not Quebec) players in most offensive categories, trailing only Sakic. He played his entire career for the organization, scoring 805 points in 1,020 regular season games.
- Though rumors have been circulating that Vancouver Canucks prospect Olli Juolevi already has a deal in place to play in Europe should he not break camp with the team, Rick Dhaliwal of News 1130 caught up with Agent Markus Lehto who quickly shot them down. Juolevi was selected fifth-overall in 2016 but returned to the London Knights to play last season. It’s not clear if the Canucks want to keep him in the NHL this year, or if he could benefit from some more seasoning in either the OHL or Europe. He’s still only 19, and though he still projects as a top defenseman, it would be tough to make the jump right away.
- Emily Kaplan of ESPN asked a large group of players what one rule change they would institute if they were commissioner, and the resounding answer was to allow players to go to the Olympics. While many of the other responses are both insightful and funny, it’s clear that the majority of the league—even those who would have no chance of playing in the tournament—dislikes the league’s decision.
Semyon Varlamov Now Fully Recovered From Groin Surgeries
- After undergoing multiple hip surgeries last season, Avalanche goaltender Semyon Varlamov has fully recovered and has been skating since late July, notes Mike Chambers of the Denver Post. The 29-year-old is coming off of the worst statistical season of his NHL career and played in just 24 games as a result of the lingering groin issues. Despite the struggles, Colorado clearly still has confidence in him as they elected to protect him from the Golden Knights in expansion.
The Best Fits For Matt Duchene
Despite the tumultuous off-season for Matt Duchene and the Colorado Avalanche, GM Joe Sakic fully expects him to show up to training camp. At least, that’s what he told BSN Denver’s Adrian Dater. “He’s under contract and I expect him to be here” Sakic said, “Not everybody always comes to camp early. It’s not for me to (say), but I assume on the 14th, he’ll be here.” Sakic is referring to Duchene being one of only two Avs players under contract not to participate in captain’s practice last week. Holdouts may be rare in the NHL, but Duchene’s words and actions this summer have painted a pretty clear picture of a player who would like to leave Colorado.
If Duchene has reached his wit’s end with the trade rumors that have persisted since late 2016 and truly has no intention of suiting up for the Avalanche again, Sakic has just a few days left to trade him before this begins to enter holdout territory. The perceived problem all along is that Sakic has not dropped the asking price that has long been considered a young top-four defenseman, a first round pick, and one or two more young roster players or prospects. Not only do few (read: any) NHL teams have a young top-four blue liner to spare, but it’s hard to imagine anyone giving up such a package for Duchene, who has just two seasons remaining on his contract and is coming off a down 2016-17 season. Duchene had scored 55 or more points in five of his seven NHL seasons entering last year – and easily would have made it six had the the 2012-13 lockout-shorten seasoned been extended – yet, he ended up with only 41 points and an egregious -34 rating last season; a low point for both he and the Avalanche franchise.
Logic would seem to indicate that, holdout or not, Sakic has to continue listening to offers for Duchene and needs to lower an unreasonable asking price. TSN recently released their list of the top nine NHL trade candidates this season, with Duchene obviously at the top. They list the Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Islanders, Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins, Nashville Predators, and Pittsburgh Penguins as the mostly likely destinations for Duchene. The Carolina Hurricanes and San Jose Sharks have also been in the rumor mix this summer.
Right away, a few of those options can have their odds discounted. Having just traded away Travis Hamonic and traded for Jordan Eberle, the New York Islanders and their estimated $3MM in cap space likely lack the capacity and the desire to pony up for Duchene at this point. The Isles are still deep on defense, but with Thomas Hickey and Dennis Seidenberg approaching free agency next year, trading yet another young defenseman like Calvin de Haan, Adam Pelech or Ryan Pulock could put the team in hole. Without one of those three, it is hard to see New York making a suitable offer. The defending two-time Cup champs are in a similar situation. While many Pens fans would love to see the embarrassment of riches of Duchene as the third line center behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh too lacks the cap space, currently about $3.25MM, and the pieces to get the job done. That is, unless Sakic is keen on Olli Maatta or the Penguins offer up Brian Dumoulin, Justin Schultz, or an overwhelming offer of picks and prospects including Derrick Pouliot and enough salary to offset Duchene. It’s a series of unlikely scenarios. Additionally, the Montreal Canadiens lack anything remotely close to a young top four defenseman. Duchene would be a great fit for the Habs, but they simply don’t have the pieces.
The Hurricanes and Bruins certainly have the pieces to acquire Duchene, but it seems unlikely that either will be the team to finally do it. Boston was in talks with Colorado last year, but balked at the ask of a package including Charlie McAvoy or Brandon Carlo and wouldn’t be willing to move Torey Krug either. If the price drops, the B’s have talented young defenders like Jakob Zboril, Jeremy Lauzon, Ryan Lindgren, and 2017 first rounder Uhro Vaakanainen waiting in the wings, but even if that was enough, the Bruins’ quiet off-season has indicated that they would like to move forward with their own young players this season. Carolina, on the other hand, is a Duchene-caliber player away from being a true contender and would love to add someone with his ability. However, GM Ron Francis has made it clear that he does not want to trade any of his defensemen. That hasn’t stopped TSN for listing “a Carolina defenseman” as one of their top trade candidates, but as of now there is no reason to think any of Justin Faulk, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, or Noah Hanifin are going anywhere. Like Boston, Carolina still has solid pieces if the price drops, such as Haydn Fleury and Jake Bean, but another thought has been whispered this summer that may take Carolina out of the Duchene race altogether. Since acquiring Trevor van Riemsdyk from the Vegas Golden Knights back in June, a player who by all accounts they didn’t really need, many have speculated that Carolina is looking to make a run at 2018 premiere free agent James van Riemsdyk, to bring in the scoring power forward that they desperately desire.
The Blue Jackets and Sharks would be ideal landing spots for Duchene, but both teams would need to get creative with their offers. Both squads have a need for a scoring forward, the cap space to take him on and plenty of talented defensemen, but what they would be willing up on the blue line is not exactly what Colorado desires. There is no way that Columbus includes Zach Werenski or Seth Jones in a deal, but could be open to trading David Savard or Ryan Murray. However, each have a caveat. Savard, while a solid top-four talent, has had durability issues and difficulty with consistent production over the past couple of years. While he would be a great addition to any defense, that may not be what Sakic is looking to get back. Murray, while injury prone, is a highly-skilled young rearguard, but, amazingly, the 24-year-old will be an unrestricted free agent next summer. Any deal involving Murray would first have to include a long-term extension with the league’s worst team. Columbus’ best chance of getting Duchene likely involves a package with top defensive prospect Gabriel Carlsson and a young roster player like Josh Anderson or Oliver Bjorkstrand. San Jose also has a few untouchables on defense, namely superstars Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Colorado also wouldn’t be interested in veterans Paul Martin and Justin Braun. That leaves Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo as the top options. While both have shown top-four potential, they have largely played shutdown roles in their young careers and bring little offensive upside. Like Savard, one would think that Sakic has a little more in mind for the Duchene return than stay-at-home defenders like Dillon and DeMelo. If the Sharks package versatile puck-moving D-prospect Jeremy Roy with either though, then talks could really get started. A package that starts like that and ends with a first-round pick and one of San Jose’s many young forwards could be enough to seal the deal.
Yet, the top candidate to bring in Duchene is likely the reigning Western Conference champs. No, the Predators are not moving any of Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, or Mattias Ekholm, but the trick up their sleeve is top prospect Dante Fabbro. A junior teammate of Colorado top prospect Tyson Jost, Fabbro is considered one of the best prospects in hockey and should step into a top four role immediately when he leaves Boston University, much like Charlie McAvoy, who Sakic already targeted in Boston. Fabbro is not just a top-four defenseman, but a potential future #1 or at least a great option to pair with Cale Makar down the road. Sakic would be hard-pressed to find more upside up for grabs than Fabbro, but the Predators are set long-term on the blue line and desperately need to recoup the scoring lost in the Expansion Draft with the selection of James Neal. Fabbro, plus a young forward like Colton Sissons, Frederick Gaudreau, or Pontus Aberg, plus a first rounder and another pick or prospect, and Duchene could surely be on his way to Nashville.
Only time will tell where Duchene ends up, but the best case scenario for all parties is for that destination to not be Denver, Colorado for much longer. Sakic must and will eventually lower his asking price and someone will meet those demands. Could it be Nashville, Columbus, or San Jose? Definitely. Could it be Boston or Carolina? The Islanders or the Penguins? Possibly. Someone totally off the board? Of course. For such a talked-about topic, there is still so much uncertainty surrounding the situation. The next step will be to see if Duchene shows up to camp on Thursday. That decision could have a resounding effect on the trade process.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Colorado Avalanche
Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Colorado Avalanche
Current Cap Hit: $63,272,262 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
D Chris Bigras (One year remaining, $843K)
F J.T. Compher (Two years remaining, $925K)
F Tyson Jost (Three years remaining, $885K)
D Andrei Mironov (Two years remaining, $925K)
F Mikko Rantanen (Two years remaining, $894K)
Potential Bonuses
Compher: $75K
Jost: $663K
Rantanen: $850K
Total: $1.588MM
Rantanen’s first full season was a bumpy one but he still projects as a top forward at the very least for the foreseeable future. Depending on how he fares in his sophomore campaign, it will be interesting to see if the team ponders signing him to an early extension, particularly with the recent inflation of RFA contracts we’ve seen this summer. Jost was lured away from North Dakota late in the season and they didn’t do that to turn around and play him in the AHL this year. They expect he’ll be a top-two center before too long and if he gets to that level within the next three years, his second deal will be a significant one. Compher spent the bulk of last year in the minors and should slide into a regular role for 2017-18. He’s more of a middle-six option and his next contract shouldn’t be anywhere as big of a jump as the other two.
With their complete lack of depth on the back end, quite a few rookies will be given the opportunity to play big minutes pretty quickly. Mironov was signed out of the KHL and has a European Assignment clause in his contract so he figures to get a long look at training camp. Bigras spent quite a bit of time with Colorado in his rookie season but none last year. As he gets set to finish his ELC, this will be a critical year for him – can he earn a bigger second deal or will he be looking at a one-year deal at potentially a lower NHL salary (with a higher AHL guarantee)?
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
G Jonathan Bernier ($2.75MM, UFA)
D Mark Barberio ($750K, UFA)
F Joe Colborne ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Blake Comeau ($2.4MM, UFA)
F Matt Nieto ($1MM, RFA)
F Nail Yakupov ($875K, RFA)
Comeau was one of many to have a rough year but after putting up better than 30 points the past two seasons, he could easily rebound. If that happens, he should be able to land a contract similar to his current one on the open market next summer. Colborne had an absolutely disastrous season to the point where he was a frequent scratch. Barring a notable turnaround, he’s setting himself up to be shopping for a PTO at this time next offseason. Yakupov has failed to live up to his first overall pedigree but the skill is there and he should have the opportunity to secure a more regular role. If that happens, he’ll set himself up for a nicer contract next summer but if not, he could be out of an NHL job entirely. Nieto should have a regular role in the bottom six but will need to produce more if he wants to garner any sort of raise a year from now.
Barberio joined Colorado via waivers midseason and he wound up with a bigger role than he had ever had before. Given their lack of depth at that position, that could very well happen again. If that is the case, Barberio could position himself for a big increase in salary if he can even satisfactorily hold down a top-four role during the season.
Bernier hasn’t been able to secure a true number one starting job between the pipes since the Kings dealt him back in 2013. Instead, he has been in platoons the last couple of years and is likely to be in one again. If that does indeed happen, a comparable deal to this one would be expected next summer as it’s doubtful that a team would be willing to give him a multi-year contract at number one money.
Latest On Matt Duchene & Colorado Avalanche Camp
The hockey world perked up their ears again yesterday when they heard that Matt Duchene was not at the first voluntary on-ice session for the Colorado Avalanche, the only missing forward outside of Nathan MacKinnon (who is on a press tour with the NHLPA). Frank Seravalli of TSN spoke with Duchene’s agent Pat Brisson, who said that Duchene was still skating in Toronto but would not comment on whether he would report to training camp when it opens in just over a week.
Duchene was also a topic when Elliotte Friedman joined Sportsnet 590 this morning in Toronto, saying that he believes there is some renewed interest in trading the forward, mentioning Columbus and Carolina as possible destinations. Friedman doesn’t know of anything that is pressing, but we’ve heard the Blue Jackets and Hurricanes in connection to Duchene before. Both could use some help down the middle, and both have young defensemen who would be of interest to the Avalanche.
While nothing seems to be about to break in Colorado, the continued rift between the two sides seems like something that can only end poorly. If Duchene doesn’t report, it takes even less leverage away from Avalanche GM Joe Sakic, and might force him to just sit on his hands until the player returns to the ice. The worst thing that could happen is Duchene sitting out a large portion of the season because something couldn’t get done, especially with only two years left on his contract. Every game that ticks by his value is reduced, as a buying team wouldn’t have any guarantee he’d be around past the 2018-19 season. For a player who was once seen as a potential franchise piece, it has quickly turned.
Francois Allaire Retires From Coaching
Now, after more than three decades in the game Allaire has decided to retire according to Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports. The Colorado Avalanche, his last stop, hired Semyon Varlamov‘s personal goaltending coach this summer to replace him. The goaltending position (and because of it, the game in general) looks much different in 2017, and much of that has to do with Allaire and his disciples changing it from one of reflex to one of positioning. While he leaves the game, his legacy does not.
Colorado Has Shifted Prospect Focus To NCAA Ranks
- After mostly ignoring the college ranks, the Avalanche have been a lot more active in the NCAA over the past couple of years, BSN Denver’s Cole Hamilton details. Over the past two drafts, they’ve picked college-bound players four times in the first two rounds including Tyson Jost and Cale Makar as well as signing a pair of college free agents last month. Going this route often requires more patience though as many of those players often wait longer to turn pro than their counterparts in junior (although Jost is an exception). Accordingly, if that continues in the years to come, Colorado’s rebuilding timeline may wind up being extended a bit longer.
Duchene’s Camp Pushing For Trade Before Training Camp
Training camp is not far away and Colorado center Matt Duchene still sits on the Avalanche’s roster, waiting. The oft-rumored trade talk that has surrounded the 26-year-old star have not stopped, but since general manager Joe Sakic is looking for an overwhelming offer, nothing has happened and its slowly looking like Duchene might have to languish for another season on one of the worst teams in the NHL until a team decides to make that “perfect” offer.
Despite that fact, TSN’s Darren Dreger said that while Duchene doesn’t want to leave Colorado on a bad note since it’s the only home he’s known since 2009, it is believed that he and his agent are now putting pressure on Sakic to get a deal done before training camp.
However, if a deal doesn’t happen, expect Duchene to be ready for training camp for one purpose, according to Yahoo Sports’ Greg Wyshynski, who writes that Duchene knows that if he wants an opportunity to play on a winning team, he needs to produce better than he did last year. After all, his numbers from a year ago might suggest that he isn’t deserving of a huge offer. He put up 18 goals and 23 assists in 77 games a year ago. Granted, he lacks the talent around him that many good players already have, but those numbers don’t spark tremendous excitement. Only a year before that, Duchene had a 30-goal season and 59 points. He may need to produce at that pace this year to find himself a new home, according to Wyshynski.
The scribe adds that this whole process is not fair to Duchene, who has invested 572 games for Colorado in his career and he deserves better than to sit and wait. However, Dreger says that Sakic believes he is worth more than last year’s numbers indicate, but he believes that a trade could easily still happen before training camp starts.
“I think it’s taking so long because Joe Sakic does, again, have a level of expectation that’s much higher from Matt Duchene than what he produced last year. And Matt Duchene himself has a higher level of expectation of his performance and I’m sure that he’s trained accordingly and vows that he’s going to have much bigger numbers this year moving forward. But if you’re an NHL general manager with interest, and there’s a handful of teams that still remain interested in Duchene, you’re trying to make a deal based on numbers from last year – not projections of what he might be moving forward, or what he’s been in the past, which is a star NHL forward,” Dreger said.
If no trade happens, it certainly will be an awkward training camp for Duchene, who could find himself shipped off at any moment, yet remains stuck playing for a struggling franchise. We’ll have to see how this one shakes out.