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East Notes: Eichel, Chara, Hallander

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It was a busy news day in the Eastern Conference. It was highlighted by the New York Islanders signing Zdeno Chara and the Ottawa Senators signing Logan Brown, both to one-year deals. But those weren’t the only items of note from around the East today as things begin to heat up prior to training camps. The Associated Press’s John Wawrow reports that Jack Eichel will indeed report to the Buffalo Sabres for his physical next week. Considering the importance that Eichel’s health status plays in any potential trade from Buffalo, the results of this appointment will likely be of especially high interest to Buffalo and teams interested in acquiring the star center. It could provide some additional clarity about paths forward for Eichel, as well as a potential return date from his neck injury.

Elsewhere from around the East:

  • Assuming Chara actually suits up for game action with the Islanders this year, he’ll be setting an NHL record in the process. According to Sportradar, Chara will have gone the longest amount of time between games with a singular franchise of anyone in the league. His last game with the Islanders was in April of 2001, making it roughly 20 years and six months since he last suited up for the Isles. It smashes the previous record held by Brendan Shanahan, who went 17 years and nine months between games with the New Jersey Devils.
  • After being dealt from and back to the Pittsburgh Penguins organization via trades with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Filip Hallander remains committed to making an NHL career for himself with the team. Participating in this year’s development camp with the team, he notes to Penguins writer James Leo that he’s “here to take a spot.” It’s not something that’s entirely out of the realm of possibility. Neither Sidney Crosby nor Evgeni Malkin will be ready for the start of the season, stretching the team’s center depth extremely thin. The 21-year-old had 24 points in 51 games last year with Luleå in the Swedish Hockey League, and could at least earn a few games out of camp in a bottom-six role while the team heals up.

Hamilton To Host 2022 NHL Heritage Classic

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Jim Balsillie finally gets his wish, the NHL is headed to Hamilton. No, a franchise isn’t relocating, but the Toronto Maple Leafs and Buffalo Sabres will take part in the 2022 Heritage Classic at Tim Hortons Field in Hamilton, Ontario on March 13 of next year. The field is home to the Hamilton Tiger-Cats of the CFL. NHL commissioner Gary Bettman released this statement.

We are excited to announce that we will be presenting another Tim Hortons Heritage Classic this season. When the Toronto Maple Leafs meet the Buffalo Sabres at Tim Hortons Field in Hamilton, we again will honor Canada’s preeminent role in the history of our game while renewing a great and longstanding NHL rivalry. In addition, by inviting the first U.S.-based team to a Heritage Classic, we will celebrate the greater Golden Horseshoe region as the home of so many fans of both the Leafs and Sabres.

The event had previously been held in NHL cities, but in 2019, the league branched out and held the Heritage Classic in Regina, Saskatchewan, where it was a huge success. This will be a similarly neutral-feeling location with the Sabres as the first U.S.-based team taking part. It will be Toronto’s fourth regular season outdoor game and first since the 2018 Stadium Series. The Sabres have been involved in two previous outdoor games, including the 2018 Winter Classic.

Tim Hortons Field is a multi-purpose stadium that hosts the Tiger-Cats and Forge FC of the Canadian Premier League, and will be the venue for the 2021 Grey Cup in December. It has a normal capacity of close to 24,000 but that can be expanded to nearly 40,000 for special events, according to Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News, who reported last month that this game was in the works.

Atlantic Notes: Cozens, Seider, Sogaard

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With the never-ending rumors of Jack Eichel’s eventual trade on top of the departures of several other core Sabres this summer, its fair to wonder who will fill the leadership vacuum in Buffalo. However, young standout Dylan Cozens is more than ready to take on that role. Appearing on WGR 550 in Buffalo, the 2019 seventh overall pick stated that he is confident in his ability to lead this next generation of Sabres. “I think definitely I could go out and be a leader on this team,” Cozens said. “Just by the way I play, leading by example and being a voice in the room. I think it’s something I’m ready to do. I want to lead by example and be a guy that guys can look to if they need anything or look to to inspire them. That’s what I’ve always been growing up – the guy that wants to lead and do things the right way.” Part of what makes Cozens a great candidate to lead Buffalo for years to come is an optimism that has been missing from other core members through a dark stretch for the franchise. “I think that we’re going to surprise a lot of people this year,” Cozens believes. “Everyone’s doubting us because we’re a young team, but if you look at the second half of last season, we were beating those veteran teams. So I think we’re going to surprise a lot of people and we’re going to have a good year.”

    • The Detroit Red Wings are looking forward to prodigious defenseman Moritz Seider developing into a leader for their club in the future. Yet, he was nowhere to be found on the team’s roster for the upcoming Traverse City Prospects Tournament. However, Red Wings Director of Player Development Shawn Horcoff tells The Athletic’s Max Bultman that this is actually an endorsement of Seider’s position in the organization rather than an indictment. Although Seider has yet to see any NHL action, Detroit is so confident in his ability to make the roster this season that they did not feel they needed to use a roster spot on him in the development tournament. “With Moritz, he’s played two years of pro now – he spent a full year in Grand Rapids, spent a full year over in Europe playing,” Horcoff explained. “Frankly, there’s some younger players that we wanted to see on the (Traverse City Tournament) roster and we just wanted to make sure that Mo was ready to go for main camp.” Fear not, Wings fans; the team clearly has no concerns about their top prospect stepping into the NHL lineup and making an impact this year.
    • The Ottawa Senators could face a difficult decision with young goaltender Mads Sogaard this season. As Bruce Garrioch details for the Ottawa Sun, the impressive prospect keeper could very well be in line for a roster spot at the Olympics for Team Denmark, making their first men’s hockey appearance at the Winter Games. Sogaard served as the team’s backup in qualifying tournaments this summer and while the those contests were played without presumptive starter, the Carolina Hurricanes’ Frederik Andersen, Sogaard is still likely to be the Danes’ first choice at third-string behind Andersen and qualifying starter Sebastian Dahm. The problem is that the AHL does not have an Olympic break like the NHL. While Ottawa’s players will have full flexibility to attend the Games if selected, Belleville’s may not. Garrioch points out that the farm team has ten games during the NHL’s Olympic break and, depending on how the organization’s goalie depth plays out this season, that could be a number of missed starts for Sogaard and a detriment to Belleville as well. The massive 6’7″ keeper had a strong first pro season last year and if fellow promising youngster Filip Gustavsson cracks the Ottawa roster, Sogaard could be the starter for Belleville. Will the Senators allow him to leave the team for an extended period in order to ride the bench for his country?

Buffalo Sabres Limited By Salary Cap Floor

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The Buffalo Sabres will be over the NHL’s salary cap floor by the start of the season, that much is obvious. While CapFriendly currently has the club sitting $2.3MM below the $60.2MM benchmark, that is with a 22-man roster that does not include unsigned RFA defenseman Rasmus Dahlin. While the 2018 first overall pick is not quite yet proven himself worthy of the considerable long-term deals signed by other top defenseman this off-season, he will surely make more than $2.3MM AAV on his next contract.

Yet, that does not end the Sabres’ battle with the cap floor. Just because they begin the season over the floor, does not mean that they will remain as such all season – or at least not if they wish to have flexibility with their transactions. Buffalo is again expected to be among the NHL’s worst teams this season and will be open to selling current members of the roster. Of course, Jack Eichel is the biggest name who could be available. However, at $10MM AAV it has been brought up numerous times that an Eichel trade is not as easy as it may seem. A team may offer a plethora of top picks, prospects, and entry-level players, but the Sabres would not be able to make that deal alone, as it would leave the team well below the salary cap floor regardless of Dahlin’s contract. Buffalo would have to acquire a nearly equal amount of salary back in the deal or else be prepared to quickly turn and add that salary in another deal. As a rebuilding team, the Sabres also won’t eager to add high-priced veterans who serve little purpose to a team with no title hopes. It makes an already difficult situation with Eichel all that much more tricky.

Even if Eichel begins the season with Buffalo, which seems increasingly likely, and even plays out the year with the team, the cap floor will still come into play. As the trade deadline approaches, the Sabres want to be in position to take full advantage of their valuable trade assets. The team has four forwards, four defensemen, and two goalies who are impending UFA’s and whose expiring contracts would be worth far more to another team. Colin Miller ($3.875MM), Will Butcher ($2.823MM), Cody Eakin ($2.25MM) and Vinnie Hinostroza ($1.05MM) stand out as potentially popular trade candidates at the deadline. Depending on Dahlin’s contract, could they move Hinostroza or maybe even Eakin or Butcher without going below the floor? Probably. But Miller? Or multiple moves? Likely not. The deadline is also not a place that is likely to offer even salary swaps.

If GM Kevyn Adams and the Sabres want to enter the 2021-22 season with the confidence that they can make any move they want without limitation, they need to find a way to sensibly add salary to the roster. For a rebuilding team, it may be difficult to think about adding salary to a team that won’t contend, but it would be a short-term sacrifice to ensure their long-term plans are not affected. The team could explore the trade market for a veteran or two that can help to develop the young roster or perhaps a young, but overpaid reclamation project. Or maybe they could entertain adding a legitimate starting goalie. They could also explore the free agent market which, even late in the summer, still has some attractive names available. With the Sabres pegged to give roster spots to minimum-salary fourth-liners like Drake Caggiula and John Hayden, it might make more sense to give those slots and more importantly more salary to a high-upside project like Ryan Donato, Alex Galchenyuk, or Nikita Gusev or a veteran leader like Tyler Bozak, James Neal, or Jason Demers. 

The Sabres have plenty of options to solve their salary cap floor conundrum beyond just re-signing Dahlin. However, those options could disappear if they don’t act quickly, and with it their transactional flexibility this season.

RFA Profile: Rasmus Dahlin

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After his sophomore season, Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin looked primed to take another step forward and potentially establish himself as one of the premier blueliners in the NHL.  Unfortunately for him and Buffalo, that didn’t happen.  Instead, he struggled considerably (as did many others on the team) and the end result was a step backwards while he remains unsigned with training camp fast approaching.

Despite the dip in production last season, Dahlin has shown himself to be a capable offensive blueliner already with a pair of 40-point years under his belt.  He’s not going to be at the level of someone like Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes offensively but the 21-year-old has already shown himself to be above average at that end of the ice.

But what about his play in his own end?  That hasn’t progressed anywhere near as well and part of the reason his ATOI hasn’t jumped up much at all since his rookie season is that Dahlin still doesn’t kill penalties.  His in-zone play under Ralph Krueger left a lot to be desired although there was some improvement following the coaching change to Don Granato.  Offensive numbers drive contract negotiations but Dahlin can’t command top dollar since he isn’t as well-rounded as others around the league are and some of his potential contractual comparables were at the time of signing.

That might seemingly push Dahlin towards a short-term deal, giving him a chance to improve defensively and bounce back offensively while getting arbitration rights along the way.  Buffalo has shown a willingness to do that in the past although the end results haven’t been pretty with recent examples of that approach (Sam Reinhart and Linus Ullmark) now playing on other teams.  Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try for a long-term pact here even if it might carry a little bit of risk.

Statistics

2020-21: 56 GP, 5-18-23, -36, 26 PIMS, 115 shots, 21:36 ATOI
Career: 197 GP, 18-89-107, -56, 98 PIMS, 382 shots, 20:44 ATOI

Comparables

Zach Werenski (Columbus) – While Werenski didn’t take a big step forward in his platform year, he didn’t take a step back either.  The offensive numbers are somewhat similar from a per-game perspective although Werenski was better in his own end then compared to Dahlin now.  Even so, this would likely represent the low end of what a bridge deal would cost as Dahlin’s draft status gives him a leg up on most of the options here.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 11-33-44, -12, 18 PIMS, 168 shots, 22:54 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 237 GP, 38-90-128, +13, 48 PIMS, 563 shots, 22:08 ATOI
Contract: Three years, $15MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 6.14%
Current Equivalent: Same as above

As this contract was basically the top standard, there aren’t really other viable comparable players for bridge deals.  $5MM would be the starting point on a bridge contract with anything over two years exceeding this price tag quickly.  Accordingly, let’s now look at longer-term options.

Ivan Provorov (Philadelphia) – Like Dahlin, Provorov entered his platform season as someone looking primed to take a big step forward but ultimately underachieved, leading to some questions as to whether a bridge deal would come his way.  He was more of a number one than Dahlin has been which could be a factor.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 7-19-26, -16, 32 PIMS, 145 shots, 25:07 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 246 GP, 30-67-97, -6, 86 PIMS, 509 shots, 23:45 ATOI
Contract: Six years, $40.5MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 8.28%
Current Equivalent: Same as above

Aaron Ekblad (Florida) – For years, this was the top standard that any young blueliner would want to use as a comparable and like Dahlin, he’s a number one pick.  Ekblad’s better defensive game looms large here so from a comparable standpoint, this one is a little weaker but it’s possible Dahlin still gets something like that (more on why that could be the case shortly).

Platform Year Stats: 68 GP, 10-11-21, -23, 58 PIMS, 225 shots, 21:28 ATOI (deal was signed pre-platform)
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 227 GP, 37-59-96, +7, 131 PIMS, 577 shots, 21:40 ATOI
Contract: Eight years, $60MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 10.27%
Current Equivalent: Eight years, $66.96MM ($8.37MM AAV)

Dougie Hamilton (Calgary) – After acquiring him from Boston, Calgary quickly inked Hamilton to the contract that he just wrapped up before signing with New Jersey.  The development path was the opposite of what Dahlin’s has been so far (his was a slow start and annual improvement) but the overall numbers are relatively close.

Platform Year Stats: 72 GP, 10-32-42, -3, 41 PIMS, 188 shots, 21:20 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 178 GP, 22-61-83, +23, 95 PIMS, 385 shots, 19:32 ATOI
Contract: Six years, $34.5MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 8.05%
Current Equivalent: Six years, $39.365MM ($6.56MM AAV)

Tyler Myers (Buffalo) – Let’s use another Sabres deal as the final comparable.  Myers’ first two seasons were a lot better than his third year (and as it turns out, those two remain his top years offensively) so at the time, Buffalo was thinking they had a core two-way player on their hands.  Of course, it didn’t work out that way in the end but the numbers are somewhat comparable to Dahlin’s so far.

Platform Year Stats: 55 GP, 8-15-23, +5, 33 PIMS, 84 shots, 22:29 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 217 GP, 29-79-108, +18, 105 PIMS, 310 shots, 22:57 ATOI
Contract: Seven years, $38.5MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 8.55%
Current Equivalent: Seven years, $48.778MM ($6.968MM AAV)

Projected Contract

In terms of fits for a long-term deal, Dahlin’s comparables appear to be in the high-$6MM range.  But if that’s the baseline for that type of contract, his camp would argue that a bridge contract would be the better way to go and rightfully so.  If Buffalo wants to buy out a couple of UFA years, they’ll need to go a bit higher, perhaps around the $7.5MM range to persuade Dahlin to go that route; a max-term (eight-year) deal could push it closer to $8MM.  Otherwise, a bridge contract starting at over $5MM for an AAV (one that is back-loaded to yield a higher qualifying offer) could very well wind up being the outcome here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information via CapFriendly.

Seven Notable RFAs Still Remain Unsigned

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It’s September 5th, which means that NHL preseason hockey is now less than three weeks away. Teams have been dealing with the realities of a flat salary cap for two offseasons now, but for some teams, it’s crunch time as their young star (or stars) remain in need of a new contract for the 2021-22 season.

While it’s obviously preferable for teams to get these players signed so they can join the team right away, teams do technically have until December 1st to sign any RFAs for them to be eligible to suit up this season. However, waiting into the season to sign the RFAs will increase the cap hit for the first year of the deal, something the league saw with William Nylander’s contract in 2018-19.

For some teams, mainly the Vancouver Canucks, that could be an issue. They’re the team that faces the largest potential cap crunch with both Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes to sign. The team currently carries $10.7MM in cap space, but that number could increase to as much as $14.2MM with Micheal Ferland being placed on long-term injured reserve. Pettersson and Hughes both struggled at times this season, but it’s hard to take results from any Canuck into account too much due to the team’s large-scale COVID-19 outbreak. Pettersson was limited to just 26 games because of injury, scoring 21 points. Hughes netted 41 points in 56 games. However, it’s still a hard argument to make that these two aren’t elite talents. Because of this, it’s likely impossible for Vancouver to afford both on long-term deals. One of them will likely be receiving a two-to-four-year contract with a much lower cap hit, but the contracts need to be signed before the start of the season in order to avoid any inflation on the already tight cap hits.

Then there’s two teams who’ve had long, drawn-out negotiations with their respective stars this offseason – the Minnesota Wild and Ottawa Senators. Both Kirill Kaprizov and Brady Tkachuk remain without deals. There appears to be some amount of hope for one team, though. Multiple reports in recent days have suggested the Wild are making progress on a deal, especially considering the deadline has now passed for Kaprizov to sign back home in Russia. The same can’t be said for Ottawa, as Tkachuk has claimed he hasn’t received a legitimate offer from the team and is beginning to get frustrated with the situation (as reported here by TSN’s Shawn Simpson). Ottawa does still have a great amount of salary cap flexibility, though, and they can afford for contract negotiations to stretch into the season.

Staying in Canada, the Edmonton Oilers still have Kailer Yamamoto to lock down in order to fill out their top-six forward group. When Oscar Klefbom is placed on LTIR and Alex Stalock is presumably sent down to the minors, the team will still have just around $1.8MM in cap space. Yamamoto likely won’t be signing anything longer than a two-year deal due to the situation. And though they can create some additional flexibility by not operating with a full roster, Edmonton will still be very interested in avoiding a prorated cap hit as the salary cap situation will remain tight no matter what.

Then there’s the remaining duo of youngsters playing for American teams – Rasmus Dahlin and Robert Thomas. Dahlin’s negotiations will be interesting to watch, purely to see if the team will commit to him long-term or not. The Sabres likely want to pay him more as the team still hasn’t reached the salary cap floor, as they still need to add roughly $2.5MM in cap hits to be cap-compliant. Dahlin will receive much more than that on any deal he signs. The Blues are in a bit of a pickle with Thomas, as the team has just $1.5MM in cap space remaining to ink the promising young forward. Thomas had only 12 points in 33 games this year and spent time injured, but had 10 goals and 42 points the season prior. It’ll likely be a one-year or two-year deal for Thomas, who finds himself in a very similar situation to Yamamoto in Edmonton.

All seven of these players will be watched with a keen eye by many in the hockey community as each day passes before camps open across the league. As the league emerges from the quiet part of the offseason, these players will likely dominate headlines sooner rather than later.

All salary cap figures via CapFriendly.com.

Buffalo Sabres Sign Henri Jokiharju

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The Buffalo Sabres have locked up a second restricted free agent after inking Casey Mittelstadt to a three-year, $7.5MM deal earlier today. Henri Jokiharju has agreed to a deal with the same terms, signing through the 2023-24 season at a $2.5MM average annual value. PuckPedia reports the full breakdown:

  • 2021-22: $2.4MM
  • 2022-23: $2.5MM
  • 2023-24: $2.6MM

Jokiharju, 22, was the player acquired from the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for Alexander Nylander in 2019 and has played 115 games for the Sabres over the last two seasons. His performance in those games has been passable, though the young defenseman has still not taken the step forward some expected after making the NHL as a teenager in Chicago.

Selected 29th overall in 2017, Jokiharju was in the NHL by 2018, playing big minutes for the Blackhawks at the age of 19. In fact, he averaged 21:30 in his first 20 games in the league and racked up nine points. Unfortunately, the high ceiling he flashed during that stretch as a top-end two-way defenseman hasn’t been matched in the years since, with Jokiharju registering just eight points in 46 games this season in Buffalo.

Still, with the current situation of the Sabres, young talent that can hold their own at the NHL level will be given plenty of opportunities to show what they can do. With this contract Jokiharju becomes the only defenseman in the entire organization signed to a one-way contract for 2022-23, as Colin Miller, Will Butcher, Robert Hagg and Mark Pysyk are all scheduled for unrestricted free agency next summer. Rasmus Dahlin will join Jokiharju whenever his contract is finalized, as the two pillars to build around on the Buffalo blueline. Owen Power will likely join them before long, though he won’t be around to help when the season gets underway next month.

With Rasmus Ristolainen out of the picture, the path is clear for Jokiharju to log big minutes once again this year and prove that he is a legitimate top-four option at the NHL level. If he does, this contract will suddenly look like a steal; if he struggles, there’s not a ton of risk for the Sabres who won’t be anywhere near the cap ceiling as they continue a scorched earth rebuild.

Buffalo Sabres Sign Casey Mittelstadt

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The Buffalo Sabres have reached an agreement with one of their restricted free agents, signing Casey Mittelstadt to a three-year deal. The contract comes with an average annual value of $2.5MM, a nice boost for a player that still hasn’t quite lived up to his high draft pedigree.

Mittelstadt, 22, was the eighth overall pick in 2017, selected a few spots ahead of young players like Martin Necas and Nick Suzuki who have already established themselves as key parts with their respective teams. In Buffalo, Mittelstadt has experienced the same struggles that almost everyone else on the roster has, posting just 61 points in 155 games. In 2019-20 he was sent to the Rochester Americans for half the season to work on his game, as it was not quite consistent enough to help the NHL squad.

The encouraging part about Mittelstadt, and why this three-year contract may look like quite a bargain very quickly, is his performance under head coach Don Granato. When Granato took over partway through last season, Mittelstadt had just one goal and five points in 13 games. He was seeing inconsistent minutes and not regularly lining up at center. That changed under the new head coach, and the young forward took a huge step forward, scoring nine goals and 17 points in 28 games through the end of the season. In those matches, he averaged more than 17 minutes a night and played center full-time.

If Mittelstadt can continue to play up to his draft pedigree under Granato, the Sabres have a true building block to help turn things around. The young forward has outstanding puck skills and playmaking ability, but seemed completely lost at times under the previous regimes. The team is obviously not giving up on him, investing in a multi-year deal ahead of what could be a breakout season.

The $2.5MM cap charge brings the Sabres a little closer to the cap floor, with Rasmus Dahlin and Henri Jokiharju still to sign. The big question is Jack Eichel though, as a trade would leave the Sabres scrambling to add salary if a similar number–$10MM–didn’t come back the other way.

Sabres Have Held Recent Talks With Casey Mittelstadt's Camp

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  • The Sabres have held recent discussions with RFA center Casey Mittelstadt, reports David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period (Twitter link). The 22-year-old had somewhat of a bounce-back season in 2020-21, recording 22 points in 41 games with Buffalo after spending more than half of the previous year in the minors in between struggling considerably with the big club.

Maple Leafs And Sabres Expected To Play Outdoor Game In Hamilton; Mid-August Eichel Meeting Yielded No Resolution

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  • The Maple Leafs and Sabres are expected to play in an outdoor game in Hamilton, Ontario in March, reports Mike Harrington of The Buffalo News. The two teams were supposed to be playing an game in Buffalo in mid–March but that contest was absent from the season ticket packages from last week.  Instead, the Sabres would be the home team in what technically would be a neutral site game but with Hamilton close to Toronto geographically, the ‘visitors’ for the Heritage Classic event would likely receive the majority of the fan support.
  • Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports in the latest 31 Thoughts podcast (audio link) that representatives from the Sabres, the NHL, the NHLPA, plus Jack Eichel and his now-former agents had a meeting around the middle of this month to try and come to an understanding on Eichel’s pending neck surgery. The team wants a more traditional fusion surgery which carries a longer recovery time and a fairly high chance of another procedure being needed down the road while Eichel prefers artificial disc replacement which hasn’t been done on an NHL player before.  There was clearly no resolution on the matter and the wait for a trade continues.

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