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Anaheim Ducks, Brandon Montour Submit Arbitration Briefs

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Salary arbitration is popular in the NHL this year. A process that often acts more as a looming threat to accelerate and finalize contract talks rather than for it’s actual intended use, arbitration has nonetheless been a much greater story line already this off-season compared to most. A decision for Winnipeg Jets defenseman Jacob Trouba is expected at some point today barring a last-minute agreement between both sides, the Calgary Flames and defenseman Brett Kulak have exchanged figures and seem likely to sit down for their scheduled hearing tomorrow, and now a third case is going through the motions ahead of a Tuesday hearing date.

Sportsnet insider Elliotte Friedman reports that the Anaheim Ducks and defenseman Brandon Montour have exchanged arbitration briefs and requested salary figures this morning. Friedman states that the team side has filed at $1.5MM, while the player side has filed at $4.75MM. Friedman adds that, while the team decides the length of a player-elected arbitration decision, Montour is hopeful for one year while the team is asking for two. Montour is three years away from unrestricted free agency, meaning a contract of either length would expire under team control.

The exchange of arbitration figures today comes after a report yesterday that Ducks GM Bob Murray was still holding out hope that a bridge deal could be agreed upon. Often the formal submission of briefs is enough to get both sides on the same page and eager to keep the decision between them. The filing figures set a midpoint of $3.25MM. If the two sides use that as a starting point for a bridge deal, a three-year term would likely fall below that point – as Montour would then hit the free agent market – while anything longer would likely come in above it as prime UFA years are chewed up.

Montour is an interesting case as a player who has been very successful in limited game played before becoming arbitration eligible. Montour, 24, has only 107 NHL games to his credit, but has been a consistent scorer and top-four regular for Anaheim after honing his game at the college level with UMass. There aren’t many good comparisons of past arbitration-eligible contracts for players with this skill level but lack of experience. For something to compare it to, both the Edmonton Oilers’ Matt Benning and New York Islanders’ Ryan Pulock are similar players who signed two-year deals worth $1.8MM and $2MM respectively this off-season. Neither is as well-rounded as Montour and neither had arbitration rights, meaning the decision is likely to come in above that point. However, Montour’s side may have a tough case – if it gets to that point – arguing that he is worth the full $4.75 given his limited games played in the league.

Behind The Scenes Of The Jacob Trouba Arbitration Case

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Arbitration cases rarely go through the hearing stage in the NHL, so for Jacob Trouba and the Winnipeg Jets to have reached this point in their negotiations – on the first scheduled day of hearing dates no less – is a major surprise. TSN’s Sara Orlesky reports that the two sides did in fact sit down for their hearing with the arbitrator and that a decision will be handed down in the next 48 hours. The Jets and Trouba have until that decision is made to agree to a deal on their own terms, likely a long-term extension, otherwise they will be stuck with a one-year deal and have to go through the process once again next summer.

So what exactly did it look like in the hearing today? Likely not what many would think. While the player and team are present during presentations to the arbitrator, neither team executives nor the player’s representation are in charge of arguing the case. The NHL Players’ Association handles the player side, while the teams use one of three lawyers to present their side: Dan Rabinowitz and Andre Nowakowski of Miller-Thomson in Toronto or Andre Lepage of BFC in Montreal. Each side makes their case based on briefs that they have previously filed to both the opposing side and the arbitrator, bringing in exhibits to support their arguments as well. The briefs contain the salary figures sought; the Jets reportedly filed at $4MM and Trouba at $7MM. It is a wide spread for the abitrator to consider and he may decide at or in between those figures.

What is the content of the arguments? Also somewhat contrary to what one may think, the two sides spend little time actually arguing the merits of the player, at least in absolute terms. The backbone of a salary arbitration case is the comparable players. For Trouba, the NHLPA would generally have comparable players that make $7MM or more to show that their filing number is fair, while the team reps will use comparable players around $4MM or less to prove their value. Each side will identify strengths or weaknesses to the player and find comparables that they can use to strengthen those points. The use of concrete search criteria to choose comparable players is key and often results in both sides tweaking their criteria ever so much that it includes only player who benefit their case. There are also rules regarding the players used: they must be current contracts, they must be recent contracts, and they must be contracts signed by a player who was or would have been an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent. Any deviation from this criteria would seriously injure the persuasiveness of the use of that comparable player. Other things that cannot be considered are off-ice behavior, even including something like Trouba’s previous contract holdout, or the team’s salary cap or roster depth status, which the Jets wish they could use in this case.

So who might be comparables in the Trouba case? The filing numbers for both sides suggest that there could be a wide range of possibilities. Using only the most basic metrics – games played and points-per-game – players like Justin Schultz, Colton Parayko, and Tyson Barrie lie right in the middle of the two values at $5.5MM and either side might struggle to use them effectively. Unfortunately for the NHLPA, those appear to be their best options. The case for any might be percentage of the salary cap rather than actual salary, given the major jump this off-season. Players like Torey Krug, Jared Spurgeon, Sami Vatanen and Dmitry Orlov would favor the Jets slightly more, but their home run option is likely a player like David Savard at $4.25MM.

After all the comparables have been presented, arguments have been made, and rebuttals and closing comments have been heard, the arbitrator will take his time to make the decision on just how much Trouba is worth based on everything he has witnessed. During that time, the two sides – who have also been enlightened to some extent – also come back together and talk contract terms. In recent years, hearings have more often than not led to independent agreements and not official decisions. Will it be the same for Jacob Trouba and the Winnipeg Jets? We will know soon enough.

What Happened To The Antoine Vermette Market?

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Approaching July 1st this year, one name had been given a somewhat surprising amount of attention. Veteran center Antoine Vermette, who was coming off the least productive season of his long career, was nevertheless reported to be a target of several teams by several different sources. TVA’s Renaud Lavoie went so far as to say that with a high demand for centermen, there was “significant interest” across the league in Vermette. Yet, three weeks later, he remains a free agent with little to no discussion of any potential landing spots.

What could have caused Vermette’s market to fall apart? It could be that many teams taking a look at the two-way pivot were able to land superior options, while others found comparable players at a cheaper price. Vermette hasn’t made under $1MM in a season since 2006 and at 36 years old he may not have been willing to return to that price point to extend his career. However, several other unrestricted free agent centers with similar (and superior) 2017-18 production have signed at cap hit between the $650K minimum and Vermette’s previous $1.75MM salary. They include Matt Cullen and Derek Grant to the Pittsburgh Penguins, Kyle Brodziak to the Edmonton Oilers, and Vermette’s Anaheim teammate Chris Wagner to the Boston Bruins, as well as Connor Brickley to the Nashville Predators, Paul Carey to the Ottawa Senators, and Michael Sgarbossa to the Washington Capitals. That’s at least six teams who likely kicked the tires on Vermette but may have found a better fit at an more comfortable price in who they decided to sign.

The other possibility is that the market was overblown in the first place. It did seem as though Vermette was slowing down substantially last season. The 14-year veteran recorded eight goals and eight assists for 16 points with the Ducks last season; each of those marks is Vermette’s lowest since his rookie year in 2003-04. His physicality tailed off and he was not as successful with his trademark defensive play, lagging in turnovers and zone exits and posting career-low possession numbers. Vermette was still dominant at the face-off dot, but teams may have been overplaying that one trait and Vermette’s years of experience, when other options with higher potential for offense and defense were waiting for them on the open market.

It could be that Vermette’s name value alone lands him a job this summer. It may be that he was overpricing himself early on to teams or that the market simply never developed, but it seems unlikely that if the well-respected and well-traveled center wanted to play next season, that he couldn’t find a shot somewhere. However, the demand is not what it once was in the past and not what it was made out to be earlier this month. Perhaps Vermette’s time to hang up the skate has come.

The Case For A Tristan Jarry Offer Sheet

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The art of the offer sheet is all but dead in the NHL. As The Athletic’s Craig Custance writes, there have only been eight offer sheets in the salary cap era, all but one have been matched, and none have been signed since 2013. It remains a shadowy threat for every GM looking to lock up his young restricted free agents, but at this point is more myth than reality. Custance even conducted a poll of nine GM’s that implied a feeling across the league that no offer sheets are coming this off-season. Even with attractive targets like the cap-strapped Detroit Red Wings’ Dylan Larkin, the Calgary Flames’ newly-acquired Noah Hanifin, and a key piece of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ young core, William Nylander, none of the GM’s could see a realistic spot where making an offer would be worth the effort as the team would always be able to match.

What about thinking outside the box and not looking at the top targets but at the team most unlikely to match? The Pittsburgh Penguins are not getting any sympathy from teams around the league. Winners of two of the last three Stanley Cups, a playoff team every year since 2007, and home to the best player in the league, the Penguins have had a great run and it’s unlikely to end any time soon. While many teams fear the backlash associated with poaching young players through offer sheets, Pittsburgh is perhaps the only team in the league that could come under attack and no one else would mind. The Penguins have also put themselves in a position that makes them easy prey. CapFriendly currently estimates that the team has just $745K in cap space heading into next season. Even if Jimmy Hayes fails to break camp or Zach Aston-Reese is sent down – the only foreseeable options, the Pens are still left with no more than $1.5MM in space and will need room to maneuver during the season.

Pittsburgh has just one restricted free agent left to re-sign: 23-year-old goaltender Tristan Jarry. Jarry has not been considered an offer sheet threat for a couple of reasons. The first is simply that he has yet to prove that he is a true NHL-caliber goalie. Jarry was a star at the junior level with the WHL’s Edmonton Oil Kings and was drafted in the second round by the Penguins in 2013. His first two pro seasons were spent entirely in the AHL, expect for one spot start in Pittsburgh, and he made the transition look easy, posting strong numbers through 78 combined games. Last season was a deviation from that smooth upward trajectory. The departure of Marc-Andre Fleury left Jarry as the primary backup to starter Matt Murray and the NHL level proved to be a little more difficult. Jarry had an up-and-down season with streaks of both good and bad play. He also struggled when he was returned to the AHL in favor of Casey DeSmith or briefly Antti Niemi. However, at the end of the season Jarry’s line of a .908 save percentage, 2.77 goals against average, and .609 quality start percentage in 26 NHL appearance was more than respectable for his first year in the bigs. Has he proven without a doubt that he can be an NHL regular or reliable backup? No, but the potential is there.

The other reason that Jarry would seem to be a strange offer sheet target is that he is waiver-exempt. Jarry is too young and inexperienced to have lost his waiver protection. This means that a team could hypothetically offer far above market value and multiple years and the Penguins could simply match it and stash Jarry in the minors without a second thought. The only problem is that Pittsburgh especially could not leave Jarry in the AHL for a whole season, nevertheless multiple. Since Murray became a fixture in net for the Penguins in 2015-16, he has made 111 appearances in three seasons with no more than 49 games in any year. In that same time, the Penguins have used six other goaltenders. Excluding Fleury, who was the starter in Murray’s first season and split time with him the following year, Jarry, DeSmith, Niemi, Mike Condon and Jeff Zatkoff have had to make 59 appearances over the past three years – more than half of Murray’s games played. Pittsburgh’s injury-prone starter clearly needs multiple quality options behind him until he can prove himself over a full season. DeSmith, who admittedly outplayed fellow rookie Jarry last season but in 12 fewer starts, may struggle to even backup Murray this season, nevertheless replace him for short stretches with untested minor league journeyman John Muse – the only other Penguins goalie – as the backup. The Penguins need a third-string goalie who costs as close the minimum against the cap as possible. If Jarry was to sign an offer sheet for even $1.5MM AAV, Pittsburgh would struggle to move that contract back and forth or keep him on the roster all year long. A team with ample cap space and a well-off ownership group could easily improve on that offer as well. Only moving out salary or injured reserve space would conceivably allow the Penguins to keep Jarry at that price or more.

At the end of the day, an offer with just the right amount of salary and term would be hard for the Penguins to match in their current state. Sure, they could simply sign a proven veteran free agent to a minimum deal and move on, but losing a promising young netminder would be a blow. On the other side of the table, it would only cost a team at most a third-round pick – the compensation for any deal with an AAV under $2.03MM – to land a young, high-ceiling goalie who is still waiver-exempt. If Jarry excels at the NHL level, they made a great deal; if he struggles, he can be sent to the AHL risk-free for further development and may still turn out be a great deal. The rest of the league would hardly mind seeing Pittsburgh and wheeler-dealer GM Jim Rutherford baffled by an offer sheet as well. It seems to be a win-win. Will it happen?

Minor Transactions: 7/18/18

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The past few days have been a busy stretch for fringe NHL free agents deciding whether to hold out for a big league deal or look elsewhere. Significant names such as Torrey Mitchell and Teemu Pulkkinen have signed overseas, while other players have settled for minor league employment. Similar deals have continued throughout the day:

  • Count Michael Latta as a player making the jump across the Atlantic. Or would it be the Pacific? Latta has signed with the Kunlun Red Star, the sole Chinese member of the KHL. He announced the deal himself today, while European insider Aivis Kalnins adds that it is a one-year contract. Latta, who is most well known for his days as a serviceable bottom-six regular with the Washington Capitals, has actually not played in an NHL game since 2015-16 in D.C. Latta has landed NHL contracts in each of the past two off-seasons with the Los Angeles Kings and Arizona Coyotes respectively and has even been a sought-after trade acquisition in both years, but nevertheless has played only in the AHL. Latta’s numbers in the minors are not all that impressive either, so perhaps his move to the KHL presents an opportunity for his two-way game to be better appreciated.
  • Veteran forward Mike Blunden is making a similar move but to a lesser-known team and league. The long-time depth forward has made an NHL appearance in all but one season since turning pro in 2006, including multiple seasons where more than half of his time was spent at the top level, but saw only three games with the Ottawa Senators over the course of his recently-expired two-year contract. A proven scorer in the AHL, Blunden is likely in pursuit of a new opportunity and higher compensation outside of North America. Per a team release, Blunden has signed a contract with HC Bolzano of the Austria-based EBEL. However, the “Foxes” are actually located in Italy and are the premiere pro team of the country. Bolzano is the reigning EBEL champion and has been loading up this off-season to defend their title, adding Blunden and fellow AHLers Leland Irving, Brett Findlay, and Matt MacKenzie. Blunden could turn out to be a top scorer for the team this season.
  • Experienced goaltender Tom McCollum is not quite ready to leave North America or even the Great Lakes region. The Buffalo-area native has spent all but one season of his nine-year pro career in the Detroit Red Wings system, appearing in over 250 games with the AHL’s Grand Rapids Griffins. However, without an offer from the Red Wings or presumably an AHL offer from the Griffins this summer, McCollum has decided to take his talents to their arch rival. The Milwaukee Admirals have announced that they have signed the veteran netminder to a one-year minor league deal. The team’s release calls McCollum a “proverbial thorn in the Admirals’ side” for years, but he has now joined them in their pursuit of a Calder Cup. Milwaukee’s parent club, the Nashville Predators, could also come calling if injuries strike; the team has just three goalies signed who have pro experience in North America.
  • Forward Tyler Randell is sticking around in the AHL as well. The 27-year-old enforcer has been unable to land a two-way NHL contract, but will settle for a minor league deal. The Rochester Americans have announced that they have signed Randell to a one-year AHL contract. Randell, a 2009 sixth-round draft pick of the Boston Bruins, is an impressive physical force and a smart defensive player. He even earned himself 27 NHL games with the Bruins in 2015-16 and a nice $700K free agent contract from the Ottawa Senators last summer. However, his offensive game is severely limited at all levels and it’s no surprise that his NHL market was lacking this off-season after an eight-point campaign with the Belleville Senators last season. Randell brings energy and grit to Rochester, but if his scoring doesn’t improve in consistency and frequency, he’s unlikely to end up back in the NHL.

Kings Re-Sign Defenseman Alex Lintuniemi

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The Los Angeles Kings have locked up the last of their restricted free agents. The Kings have announced a new contract extension for defenseman Alex Lintuniemi, their last unsigned RFA. It is a one-year, two-way contract for the young Finnish rearguard that carries a minimum $650K cap hit at the NHL level.

Lintuniemi, 22, has made great strides in each of his pro seasons. The 2014 second-round pick was drafted for his size, strength, and potential but was still a very raw prospect when he turned pro in 2015. He spent his entire first full season in the Kings’ system developing at the ECHL level, before becoming a part-time player in the AHL in 2016-17. This past season was easily his best, as he became a dependable, every-day player for the AHL’s Ontario Reign and recorded a career-high four goals and 24 points.

Lintuniemi still has some work to do on his game and will likely never be much of an offensive threat in the NHL, but is taking steps toward becoming a solid defensive player. While the Kings run seven or eight deep on the blue line with true NHL-caliber players, don’t be surprised to see Lintuniemi get his first look at the top level some time in the upcoming season.

Flames Re-Sign Goaltender Jon Gillies

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Tuesday: The Flames have officially announced the contract, confirming the financial details reported by Lavoie.

Monday: The Calgary Flames may have hinted at who they feel their goalie of the future is with a contract inked this evening. TVA’s Renaud Lavoie reports that the Flames have signed 24-year-old Jon Gillies to a two-year contract extension worth $750K against the cap in each season. The first year of contract is of a two-way nature, while the second is a one-way deal, according to Lavoie.

Gillies made a career-high 11 NHL appearances last year in his third pro season, but his .896 save percentage, 2.88 GAA, and five losses were not overly impressive. However, Gillies enjoyed a second straight strong season with the AHL’s Stockton Heat, posting a .917 save percentage and 2.53 GAA in 39 games. Yet, fellow up-and-coming keeper David Rittich outplayed Gillies in the NHL and saw more action, even though he struggled in the AHL. Based on last season alone, many would have assumed that Rittich had the upper hand heading into training camp this fall, where the two are expected to battle for the backup spot behind Mike Smith. 

Yet, Gillies’ extension may prove otherwise. A one-way contract in 2019-20 could indicate that the Flames fully expect Gillies to be a full-time NHLer in two years. If he isn’t, then Calgary risks losing him on waivers at that time. Flames beat writer Ryan Pike also points out that Gillies needs 16 appearances – five more than last year – or he will otherwise become a Group 6 free agent at the end of the contract. If the Flames want to protect Gillies long-term, they need to get him into some games. Of course, this whole status quo all change with the arbitration decision in Rittich’s case, but it certainly seems as if the organization may be leaning toward Gillies as their goalie of the future.

Jason Zucker Hoping To Stay In Minnesota

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Of all the players scheduled for salary arbitration in the coming weeks, perhaps no case is likely to go all the way through the hearing and the decision than that of Jason Zucker. The Minnesota Wild forward is coming off of an incredible year, scoring a career-high 33 goals and 64 points, both of which were top-three for Minnesota. However, he is also coming off of a $2MM salary and is due a substantial raise. The problem with this scenario is that the Wild are lacking in cap flexibility, facing less than $11MM in space with both Zucker and young stalwart defender  Matt Dumba yet to sign. A lack of cap space cannot be used as an argument in an arbitration hearing, but Minnesota will use whatever else they can to drive down the price on Zucker. If they are unsuccessful, Zucker is likely to land in the $5MM+ range that could make things difficult on the Wild and possibly force a trade.

For what it’s worth, Zucker hopes that it won’t come to that. Speaking with Dane Mizutani of TwinCities.com, Zucker confirms that he and agent Eustace King are still busy negotiating with the Wild in hopes of coming to a resolution. Zucker states:

“I want to be in Minnesota; I love Minnesota. My family roots are now here. This is a second home to us and I want to be here. We have a great team. We have a lot of really good things going for us. … If it was my choice, I’d be here playing for the Wild next season.”

The 26-year-old met his wife in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area and the couple now have two kids. Mizutani writes that Zucker is also very involved with the community, including leading a campaign to support a local children’s hospital. He clearly has strong ties to the area and a passion for the organization and would like to stay put.

With that said, Zucker also understands the reality of the situation. He adds that “it’s part of the business. If I get traded, it is what it is and I’ll look forward to a fresh start.” Zucker is confident in his ability, even stating that he feels he has room to get better and would likely expect to be compensated as such. Zucker sounds like he is honestly hoping to remain with Minnesota, but also doesn’t sound like a player about to take a hometown discount. Only time, and possibly an arbitrator, will tell what happens next with Zucker and the Wild.

Colorado Avalanche Sign Three RFAs

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The Colorado Avalanche are down to one restricted free agent remaining – defenseman Patrik Nemeth – after announcing three contract extensions today with RFAs. Goaltender Spencer Martin, defenseman Ryan Graves, and defenseman Mason Geertsen, whose deal had already been leaked, have all signed one-year contracts for upcoming season. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Martin, the most well-known of the trio, has been a mainstay in net in the minors for the Avalanche for the past few years. Martin has made 84 starts for the AHL’s San Antonio Rampage over the past two seasons as well as three NHL appearances. Martin’s numbers at both levels are rather pedestrian, but the 23-year-old was Colorado’s top goaltender prospect until the team used a third-round pick on big Finnish keeper Justus Annunen this June. Between losing that title and the team’s additions of Philipp Grubauer and Pavel Francouz in net, Martin is facing a big season in 2018-19 with his relevance in the Avs’ system in doubt.

Graves, 23, was just recently acquired by Colorado at the trade deadline in a swap of defensive prospects with the New York Rangers. The big blue liner was a 2013 fourth-round pick who has produced well in the AHL to this point in his pro career, but has yet to get a shot at the NHL. Graves is far from a polished prospect but still has some upside to his game that brings both physicality and play-making ability.

Like Graves, Geertsen has also failed to make it to the highest level yet in his career. Similar to Graves in size and experience, at 23 Geertsen still lacks a pro-caliber offensive game. Last season was his first spent entirely in the AHL, as Geertsen has previously spent extensive time in the ECHL.

Minor Transactions: 7/15/18

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As the off-season wears on, players are feeling the pressure to make a decision. Restricted free agents have until 4pm CT tonight to accept their qualifying offers, while veterans are also beginning to feel like they should take the best offer on the table. Keep up with all of the action here:

  • CapFriendly reports that New Jersey Devils defenseman Michael Kapla has accepted his qualifying offer of a one-year, two-way deal worth $874,125 at the NHL level and $70K at the AHL level. Kapla originally signed a two-year deal with the Devils back in 2017 at the end of the NCAA season. The UMass-Lowell captain even suited up for five games with New Jersey down the stretch. However, Kapla did not make an NHL appearance last season, playing the entire campaign with the Binghamton Devils. Even in the AHL, he was overshadowed by the likes of Steven Santini and Jacob MacDonald. With MacDonald signing elsewhere and Santini likely to be full-time in New Jersey – once he signs his own contract – Kapla could be the top minor league option on the blue line for the Devils, but newcomers Eric Gryba and John Ramage may have other plans.
  • One defenseman who won’t be in the mix for any NHL teams is Evgeny Medvedev. The Russian rearguard has re-signed with the KHL’s Avangard Omsk, per a team release.  Medvedev is coming off the best season of his KHL career; the Avangard captain led the team in average time on ice and recorded a career-high 30 points in 54 games. There was some speculation that, at 35 years old, this performance might spike some interest from Medvedev in taking one last shot at the NHL. He previously played for the Philadelphia Flyers in 2015-16, but underwhelmed with just 12 points in 45 games. Whether the interest was lacking from Medvedev or the NHL market, it seems he opted to just return to Omsk and – assuming he can’t top last season as he enters the twilight of his career – is likely done with the NHL for good.

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