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Custance’s Latest: Projecting Those Most Affected By Flat Cap

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The NHL’s Board of Governors (BOG) are in the midst of two days of meetings designed to cover several important topics before wrapping up today. Chief among them – and of particular interest to team executives as well as fans of the sport – is an early projection of the 2017-18 salary cap ceiling. Commissioner Gary Bettman advised the BOG to expect a modest increase, perhaps as much as $2MM, if any at all. Specifically, Bettman suggested the salary cap may remain flat. Naturally, that may present problems for several teams already close to the cap ceiling while pending free agents might find their respective markets depressed due to fewer clubs being in position to take on big salaries.

Craig Custance of ESPN.com wrote about a few teams and players who stand to be affected the most should the salary cap ceiling remain flat for the 2017-18 campaign. Among those he listed were Artemi Panarin, who will be a RFA coming off his ELC and in line for a massive raise. As we already know, Chicago is tight up against the cap and have already been forced to deal away key contributors due to a lack of cap space – Brandon Saad, Patrick Sharp and Teuvo Teravainen, for instance. They’ll likely have another tough decision to make given the situation.

Tampa Bay and their GM, Steve Yzerman, are two others Custance mentions as being impacted by a flat cap. The Lightning are set to watch Tyler Johnson, Jonathan Drouin and Ondrej Palat become RFAs this summer and with just less than $60MM in cap commitments already on the books for 2017-18, it’s highly unlikely that Yzerman will be able to re-sign all three players.

In addition to those already brought up by Custance, there are several other clubs who will have a difficult time navigating the salary cap if the ceiling remains at or near the $73MM mark. Here are a few of those teams:

  • Los Angeles Kings – The Kings already have just more than $60MM committed to the 2017-18 salary cap with forwards Tanner Pearson and Tyler Toffoli slated to become RFAs next summer. Toffoli tallied career highs in goals (31) and points (58) in 2015-16 and while his scoring out put is down some this year, he could still easily command upwards of $4MM annually on a new contract. Pearson, meanwhile recorded 36 points last year and is on pace for about that same total this season. That could well push his salary north of $3MM next year.
  • New York Rangers – The Blueshirts might be in a bigger bind than the Kings. They have about $63MM tied up in 2017-18 commitments with top-six center Mika Zibanejad and checking forward Jesper Fast, among several others, scheduled to become RFA’s. On top of that, the team will likely be in the market for a blue line upgrade and unless they can find a way to unload one of Dan Girardi or Marc Staal, the Rangers won’t have enough cap space to make an impact addition in free agency.
  • Detroit Red Wings – The Red Wings are projected to have less than $5MM in cap space next season with Thomas Vanek hitting free agency. Additionally, five other players will be RFAs, including Tomas Tatar and Tomas Jurco. It’s hard to imagine the Wings being anything more than a fringe playoff contender next season given their current roster and with virtually no salary cap space available next season, as it’ll be tough for the team to improve through free agency.

Pacific Division Notes: Gudbranson, Mueller

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The Vancouver Canucks finsihed 12 points behind Minnesota for the final playoff berth in the Western Conference in 2015-16 and with many of their best players – Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, Alex Edler and Ryan Miller – all on the wrong side of 30, many thought it was time for the organization to embrace a full rebuild. Instead Vancouver inked veteran scoring forward Loui Eriksson in free agency and dealt young prospect Jared McCann along with a second-round pick to Florida for experienced defenseman Erik Gudbranson; moves that suggested the front office had every reason of contending in 2016-17. While the team sits just three points out of a playoff berth and with roughly two-thirds of the season remaining, it’s still more likely Vancouver will be a lottery team as opposed to a serious postseason contender. Now, with Gudbranson scheduled to reach restricted free agency next summer and likely in line for a marked raise over his $3.5MM cap hit, Vancouver will have to make a tough decision on what to do with the physical blue liner, as Jason Brough of Pro Hockey Talk writes.

As Brough explains, the Canucks have unexpectedly received strong play from rookie Troy Stecher, who has six points in 18 games, and already have Chris Tanev signed long term. Both are right-side defenders, as is Gudbranson, and a strong case can be made that they deserve top-four slots ahead of the former Florida Panther. In that case, Vancouver GM Jim Benning may not want to pay market value for Gudbranson, assuming he would be no more than a third-pair blue liner.

Benning has indicated that his newfound back end depth may allow him to trade a defenseman for a forward:

“We have depth on defense. We’ve rebuilt our defense. (Nikita) Tryamkin is 22 years old, (Troy) Stecher is 22 years old. (Alex) Edler at 30 is our oldest defenseman, so we have a young, good group back there. We have depth back there. So if we look to make a move, we’d have to use some of our depth on the blue line to add a forward.”

Gudbranson’s value is also difficult to project. The analytical community is not a fan, citing his substandard possession numbers – 48.7% career CF% – and his lack of offense. The towering blue liner has tallied just 48 career points in 336 NHL regular season games; good for a per-82-game-average of 11.7. With the league always looking for more offense and team’s prioritizing puck moving capabilities from its blue liners, there may not be as much of a trade market this summer for a player of Gudbranson’s ilk.

However, teams that value intangibles may be willing to overlook the advanced stats. But first, Vancouver has to decide whether they project Gudbranson to be a top-four defender and if not, are they going to be willing to extend the former third overall pick to a contract with an AAV in excess of $4MM or $5MM.

Elsewhere in the Pacific Division:

  • Defenseman Mirco Mueller has been recalled by the San Jose Sharks, according to the official website of their AHL affiliate, the San Jose Barracuda. Curtis Pashelka of the San Jose Mercury News relays that the team’s head coach, Peter DeBoer, has not yet decided whether Mueller will be in the lineup this evening. However, Kevin Kurz of CSN Bay Area believes it is likely the former first-round pick will sit out tonight. Mueller has appeared in 50 NHL games with the Sharks, netting one goal and four points. He has yet to suit up this season for the Sharks. Mueller has six points in 17 games with the Barracuda.

The 2016 All UFA Bust Team

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Last week we presented our 2016 All UFA Bargain team, highlighted by Jonathan Marchessault and Chad Johnson, each of whom has provided results well in excess of any expectations based on the contracts they signed this summer. Of course for every free agent bargain in the NHL there is likely at least one free agent signing that will rate as a bust. Strangely enough, only a handful of UFA blue liners inked multiyear pacts this summer with two of the biggest names, Keith Yandle and Alex Goligoski, traded by their previous employers before agreeing to lucrative deals prior to reaching unrestricted free agency. Subsequently, finding two defensemen who have severely under-performed their new contracts was not as easy as expected.

Without further ado, here is Pro Hockey Rumors 2016 All UFA Bust Team.

Forwards

Andrew Ladd (New York Islanders) – Seven years, $38.5MM: The Islanders, needing to replace the scoring tough of Kyle Okposo, reached a lucrative agreement July 1st with veteran left wing Andrew Ladd. It was expected that in addition to 25-goal, 50-point production, Ladd would also add leadership to a relatively young squad. But Ladd has just five points in 23 contests with his new club and has struggled despite seeing a lot of early-season ice time with John Tavares.

Many were critical of the Ladd contract, primarily due to the seven-year term. Ladd, soon to turn 31, already has nearly 800 regular season games under his belt and likely won’t remain productive into his mid-to-late-30’s. However it was at least expected that Ladd would maintain his 20-goal plus production through the first half of his deal.

Mikkel Boedker (San Jose Sharks) – Four years, $16MM: After falling to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Stanley Cup Final last June, the San Jose Sharks decided they needed to add some speed to help keep up against the league’s quicker clubs. Enter Boedker, who had tied his career-high in points, tallying 51 while splitting the 2015-16 campaign between Arizona and Colorado. Boedker was supposed to help allow the Sharks to ice four quality lines with skill and add some more speed to the lineup. Unfortunately the production – two goals and four points – simply doesn’t measure up to the lofty contract he received.

Dale Weise (Philadelphia Flyers) – Four years, $9.4MM: Weise parlayed an excellent platform season – 14 goals, 27 points – into a nice, multiyear deal with the Flyers this summer despite his late-season struggles following a trade from Montreal to Chicago. The physical winger tallied just one assist in 15 games with the Blackhawks down the stretch. Yet the AAV of $2.35MM is in line with Weise’s full-season production in both 2014-15 and 2015-16. The problem is, Weise has just two goals and four points in 22 game so far on the campaign and that’s not nearly enough to justify his contract.

Defense

Dan Hamhuis (Dallas Stars) – Two years, $7.5MM: The Stars pursued Hamhuis at last season’s trade deadline but the veteran defender elected to exercise his NTC to block a proposed deal to Dallas as he didn’t want to uproot his family at that time. After losing Kris Russell, Jason Demers and Alex Goligoski from last year’s blue line, it seemed only natural that the Stars would turn again to Hamhuis for help. The 13-year-vet has long been a steady performer and the two-year term is reasonable, but he has just five points in 24 games and has been a healthy scratch at times this season. Surely the Stars expected a little more from their investment.

Jason Demers (Florida Panthers) – Five years, $22.5MM: It’s not that Demers is having a terrible year as he is on pace for around 10 goals and 29 points. But Florida remade their blue line in the offseason, moving on from tough, physical defenders Erik Gudbranson and Dmitry Kulikov in favor of better puck movers like Demers. To say that plan hasn’t worked out would be an understatement. Defensively the team is allowing 2.44 goals-per-game, exactly the same as last year. However on offense, the team is averaging 0.51 fewer goals per game. Yes, some of that likely has to do with the injuries to Jonathan Huberdeau and Nick Bjugstad, but the bottom line is the season has been a bitter disappointment for the Panthers and Demers shares in some of the responsibility.

Goalie

James Reimer (Florida Panthers) – Five years, $17MM: With Roberto Luongo now 37, and the upcoming expansion draft at least providing the Panthers with the possibility of getting out from under the final five years of his onerous contract, the Panthers elected to buy the best goalie on the free agent market this summer to provide a competent fallback option. After eight starts this season, Reimer has a Save % under 0.900 and a GAA above 3.0. While a $3.4MM AAV may not be on par with most of the league’s starters, it is excellent money for a backup and Reimer is currently not even playing to that modest level.

 

Metro Division Snapshots: Blue Jackets, Islanders, Berube

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The Columbus Blue Jackets have been one of the league’s pleasant surprises through the quarter point of the campaign. Expected to again be a lottery team after a 27th place finish in 2015-16, Columbus is off to a 14 – 5 – 4 start and their 32 points are good enough to place them in a tie for fifth most in the NHL. The Jackets also rank in the top-ten in goals scored, goals allowed and have the league’s top ranked man advantage unit. Craig Morgan, writing for Fan Rag Sports Network, explores how Columbus has been able to turn things around after an offseason that didn’t yield any major personnel changes.

Morgan spoke with Blue Jackets beat writer Aaron Portzline, who was able to provide his insights into the team. Right off the top Portzline cites three key reasons for Columbus’ early success. First, Sergei Bobrovsky has been healthy and is performing at a high level between the pipes. Second, Alex Wennberg is producing at the level of a top center. Third, rookie blue liner Zach Werenski has shown he wasn’t just ready to play in the NHL, he was ready to be a star in the league.

Among goalies who have played in at least 15 games this season, Bobrovsky ranks 5th in Save % (0.929) and 6th in GAA (2.08). Wennberg, in his third NHL campaign, has 6 goals and 21 points in 23 contests and is tied for 7th in the league in assists. Werenski leads all rookie blue liners in goals (5) and points (16).

In addition to the output of those three key players, young defenseman Seth Jones has also played a vital role in the Blue Jackets unexpectedly strong play. Columbus head coach John Tortorella had this to say about Jones’ impact:

“You can see how he can control the game with the puck. We have a lot of teaching to do with him without the puck, but the God-given ability that he has, it’s at a different level than a lot of other players in this league.”

Whether or not Columbus can maintain this level of play and compete for a playoff berth of course remains to be seen. However, by this point in the campaign, teams that are currently hold a postseason spot have excellent odds of making the playoffs and that should bode well for the Jackets.

Elsewhere in the Metro Division:

  • With new ownership now pulling the strings in Brooklyn, there are rumblings that the New York Islanders may be searching for a high level executive to join their front office, according to Arthur Staple of Newsday. The plan is to add a big name and evidently among those who are under consideration are two former NHL’ers with ties to the New York area: former Islander and Ranger Pat LaFontaine and Brad Richards, who retired after last season and spent three seasons with the Blueshirts. Staple adds that another name linked to the potential new role is Pat Brisson, who just so happens to be John Tavares’ agent and was a contender for the Pittsburgh Penguins GM position two years ago. It’s not clear whether the hire, if eventually made, would join the team as team president and work with Islanders GM Garth Snow, or if that person would be charged with reshaping the organization’s front office.
  • Jean-Francois Berube is currently in a tough spot as the Islanders #3 goalie behind Jaroslav Halak and Thomas Greiss. Fearful of losing the 25-year-old net minder on waivers but apparently unwilling to give him any playing time, the Islanders have planted Berube firmly in the press box for much of the last two seasons. Berube has yet to see any action this season at any level and got into just 12 games – seven in the NHL and five in the AHL – in 2015-16. It’s certainly an unusual situation but as Larry Brooks of the New York Post writes, it’s not an entirely unique one. According to Brooks, goaltender Wayne Thomas spent the entire 1974-75 campaign on the roster of the Montreal Canadiens without even dressing as the backup. Berube has at least been on the Isles bench 10 times this season. Thomas would go on to appear in 243 career NHL contests – including a career-high 64 appearances the next season – perhaps providing some hope for Berube, who has all of seven games to his credit. While Brooks’ story is somewhat anecdotal, Berube and his representation have not been amused with the net minder’s lack of usage over the last two seasons. A resolution of some sorts that allows Berube to get on the ice, whether in Brooklyn or another NHL city, is likely best for all parties involved.

Johnny Gaudreau Set To Return Three Weeks Ahead Of Schedule

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According to the Calgary Flames official Twitter account, star winger Johnny Gaudreau is set to return to action and is expected to play tonight. Gaudreau underwent surgery to repair a broken finger on November 17th and at that point was expected to miss six weeks. Clearly the diminutive winger is quick to heal as he bested the initial timeline by more than three weeks.

Gaudreau was off to a somewhat slow start in 2016-17 with just 11 points in 17 games and a -10 plus-minus rating. Although the gifted forward appeared to be getting his game on track, scoring three goals and four points in the four games prior to suffering the injury. In 2015-16 Gaudreau averaged nearly a point-per-game and finished tied for sixth in the league in scoring with 78 points.

Calgary has fared surprisingly well during Gaudreau’s absence. The Flames have won six of 10 decisions and accumulated 13 points since Gaudreau went down with the injury. That push has helped the Flames resurface in the playoff race out west after a slow start to the season. Gaudreau’s return should only help Calgary in their continued pursuit of a postseason berth.

 

Teddy Purcell Clears Waivers

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Veteran winger Teddy Purcell somewhat surprisingly cleared waivers today, according to Elliotte Friedman (Twitter link). The scribe suggests teams who may have been interested in Purcell either didn’t have the room to add another contract or were too close to the salary cap ceiling and consequently passed on making a claim.

Jon Rosen of LA Kings Insider adds that there may have been talk with at least one club regarding a trade prior to Los Angeles placing Purcell on waivers. That appears to coincide with what Friedman tweeted. It’s conceivable another club with interest in the 6-foot-2, 205-pound right wing wanted the Kings to either take back a contract or a salary to help offset adding Purcell.

The 31-year-old Purcell in his second tour with the Kings after inking a one-year free agent contract with the team this summer. He has just two points in 12 games this season but has been a productive player in the past. Purcell has reached the 40-point plateau in four different NHL seasons throughout his career and posted a 24-goal, 65-point campaign in 2011-12 with Tampa Bay.

With an AAV of just $1.6MM on his expiring pact and a track record of solid offensive production, it qualifies as a mild surprise went unclaimed. Just last February the Florida Panthers dealt a third-round draft pick to Edmonton to secure the services of a pure rental. Should Purcell regain his scoring touch there could once again be a market for the skilled winger ahead of the trade deadline.

For now Purcell remains property of the Kings, who have the option of keeping him on the big club or reassigning him to Ontario of the AHL at any point in the next 30 days. However Rosen has since tweeted that the club is planning to assign Purcell to their AHL affiliate in order to clear a roster spot for Andy Andreoff once he is ready to come off IR.

Atlantic Division Transactions/Injuries

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The Buffalo Sabres, already without two of their top defensemen, will now also be without veteran blue liner Josh Gorges for what head coach Dan Bylsma says will be “weeks,” tweets Joe Yerdon of NHL.com. Gorges suffered a non-displaced fracture in his foot and according to Yerdon was seen in a walking boot yesterday.

The Sabres have been without the services of Zach Bogosian and Dmitry Kulikov since early November, weakening a blue line not considered to be particularly deep to begin with. Bogosian has missed a month with a sprained MCL while Kulikov has been out for three weeks due to an undisclosed injury. However, Yerdon reports that Kulikov is now considered day-to-day, suggesting he could return to the lineup relatively soon.

The Sabres are calling Taylor Fedun questionable for tomorrow’s game and if he can’t go, the team will have to call up a defender from Rochester of the AHL. Speculatively, Casey Nelson, who already has made eight appearances for Buffalo  this season, could be the choice if a recall is necessarily.

(Buffalo Depth Cart – courtesy of Roster Resource)

  • The Florida Panthers announced that they have recalled forward Paul Thompson from Springfield of the AHL. Thompson leads Springfield in several offensive categories including: goals (six); assists (nine); points (15); power play goals (three) and; shots on goal (64). He has appeared in 20 contests so far this season for the Thunderbirds. Thompson, 28,  has just three NHL games of experience under his belt, all coming last season with New Jersey, and has yet to record a point. George Richards of the Miami Herald reports that Thompson’s recall was necessitated by an injury to Jonathan Marchessault last night in Ottawa.

Avalanche Lose Erik Johnson For 6 – 8 Weeks

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It appears to be going from bad to worse in Denver as the Colorado Avalanche, already dead last in the league with just 19 points, will now have to manage without their best defenseman for 6 – 8 weeks, writes Rick Sadowski of NHL.com. Erik Johnson suffered a broken fibula during the second period of the team’s 3 – 0 shutout loss to Dallas Saturday night.

Johnson, the top overall draft selection in the 2006 draft, has tallied 11 points in 23 games for the Avalanche this season. He is tied with Tyson Barrie for the scoring lead among the team’s blue line core while his 10 helpers lead the club. Johnson also ranks just behind Barrie in ice time, averaging over 22 minutes per game.

First-year bench boss Jared Bednar had been using the nine-year veteran defender on the team’s top pairing with Fedor Tyutin, according to Sadowski. However Tyutin missed Saturday’s game with a lower-body injury and is questionable to play in the team’s next game.

Avalanche GM Joe Sakic has already been dealing with questions regarding the logic of keeping his core group of players together and now has to address how best to replace his #1 defenseman. With just $1.3MM in available cap space, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to add a significant player via trade, even if one was available this early in the season. It’s possible the team will have to manage with internal options for the time being, further dampening their postseason chances.

It’s possible the team will recall Cody Goloubef from San Antonio of the AHL. Goloubef was acquired last week in a deal with Columbus involving fellow blue liner Ryan Stanton. Like Johnson, Goloubef is a right-handed shot and he also brings 96 games of NHL experience to the table.

Ottawa Reassigns Andrew Hammond To Binghamton

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The Ottawa Senators have announced that they have reassigned goalie Andrew Hammond to Binghamton of the AHL. The move indicates that Craig Anderson will rejoin the team and should be available for the Senators road game tomorrow against Pittsburgh, as Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen tweets.

Anderson of course has taken several leaves of absence from the team this season in order to be with his family as his wife battles cancer. Despite that, the veteran net minder has had an outstanding season. He currently owns a 12 – 5 – 1 record with a GAA of 2.20 and a 0.930 Save %.

Hammond has started two games this season, allowing six goals in just four periods of hockey and stopping just 23 of the 29 shots against. He rose to fame during the 2014-15 campaign as he backstopped the Senators to a surprising playoff berth with a tremendous stretch run. Hammond finished the season with a record of 20 – 1 – 2 with a GAA of just 1.79 and a Save % of 0.941. That run prompted the Senators to award the then 24-year-old net minder with a three-year contract extension worth just more than $4MM. Unfortunately for Hammond and the Senators, he has failed to come close to replicating that success since signing the deal.

Hawks Reassign Schmaltz; Call Up Goalie Johansson

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A day after losing starting goalie Corey Crawford for two to three weeks and being forced to sign an emergency net minder to serve as the team’s backup, the Chicago Blackhawks have made a move to hopefully solidify the position. The team has called up Lars Johansson from Rockford of the AHL to support Scott Darling between the pipes. In a corresponding move, Chicago reassigned rookie center Nick Schmaltz to Rockford. The related transactions were originally relayed by Tracy Myers of CSN Chicago via Twitter.

Crawford of course was diagnosed yesterday morning with appendicitis and underwent an emergency appendectomy at a Philadelphia hospital. Recovery times can vary but the Hawks at this point expect to be without the services of the soon-to-be-32-year-old for up to three weeks.

In desperate need of someone to backup Darling yesterday just hours before puck-drop, the Blackhawks inked Eric Semborski to an ATO. Semborski was a club player at Temple University and currently serves as a youth hockey coach in the Philadelphia area. While he didn’t get into the game, head coach Joel Quennville did say that he would have put Semborski in late had the Flyers scored a late empty-net goal to put the game out of reach.

Johansson is an interesting story. Already 29, he spent the first 10 seasons of his professional career playing in his native Sweden. An outstanding performance in 2015-16 while playing for Frolunda prompted Chicago to bring Larsson to North America to help add organizational depth between the pipes. Larsson went 27-6-0 with a 1.74 GAA and a Save % of 0.927% while leading Frolunda to the 2016 Swedish League championship. In 16 games with Rockford, he has a record of 6-7-1 with a 2.63 GAA and a Save % of 0.911%.

Schmaltz tallied one goal and four points in 26 games in his first professional campaign. The reassignment of Schmaltz leaves the Hawks perilously thin at forward with just 12 healthy bodies on the roster, though it does sound as if Jonathan Toews should be back in the lineup soon which will alleviate that issue.

The Hawks find themselves in this tight spot due to their proximity to the salary cap ceiling. By rule the team could have used former NHL net minder and current goalie coach for Chicago, Jimmy Waite, as the backup yesterday but as a former professional, Chicago would have had to have paid him a salary. With the team possessing less than $500K in space, they simply couldn’t have done so while remaining cap compliant.

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