PHR Mailbag: Wild, Bruins, Devils’ Draft Pick, DeBrincat, Predators, Hockey Trades, Rangers, Coyotes, Forsberg
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Boston’s offseason, discussing which route is the best to take for Nashville, candidates for ‘hockey’ trades, and more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in either last weekend’s mailbag or Saturday’s Detroit-specific column.
Zakis: Who will be the Wild’s primary goalie for the ’22-’23 season?
I’m going to say Cam Talbot. While their Plan A is to re-sign Marc-Andre Fleury, with everything else they have to navigate this summer, I’m leery that they’ll be able to do so unless Fleury takes below his market value to stay there. I expect Minnesota will have to be a bit more frugal while looking for their second netminder. While they’re probably not going to wind up with a low-end, cheap second-stringer, I have a hard time thinking that second goalie will play more than Talbot, barring injury.
Assuming that happens, Talbot should check in around 50-55 starts, a mark he’d have reached this season had it not been for Fleury’s acquisition back at the trade deadline. Getting that many starts will be important for him as well since the 34-year-old will be an unrestricted free agent in the 2023 offseason and playing a number one workload would certainly help his cause next summer on the open market.
Nha Trang: I’d ask “What the hell were the Bruins thinking?” except that everyone in hockey knows the answer.
MoneyBallJustWorks: Thoughts on Sweeney being canned and ending up in Vegas?
BOSsports21: Piggybacking off a couple B’s questions already – the Bruins need a teardown and rebuild. It’s not something B’s fans want to hear, but they have only a couple of good prospects and no cap room. They weren’t really a Cup contender this past year and now they want to bring in a younger coach. If you’re the GM, do you sell off as much as you can to obtain assets? I feel Pastrnak and Marchand will not be the same without Bergeron if he retires. Even if he comes back, it’ll probably only be for a year. Might as well get good value for Pastrnak and Marchand to re-stock the bare cupboard. Thoughts?
Let’s put some Boston questions together. GM Don Sweeney’s decision to part ways with Bruce Cassidy certainly raised some eyebrows and the fact that several teams immediately pursued him indicates that his perception around the league is much more positive than it was in Boston’s front office. Obviously, they felt the playoff underperformance was cause for concern and there has been plenty of speculation about other factors but that’s simply speculation.
There’s a good chance that whoever Sweeney hires will be his last hire as Boston’s head coach. He’s one of the longer-tenured general managers in the league but most are only able to make a couple of coaching changes before they’re heading out the door. As for joining Vegas when that happens, never say never, even with what I suspect was a sarcastic question. Vegas isn’t exactly known for patience in the early going and if they struggle over the next year or two, there could be front office changes following soon after.
Boston has operated as a team that isn’t likely to rebuild, especially with the moves they’ve made in the last few years. They don’t give Taylor Hall a four-year deal and then acquire and extend Hampus Lindholm with an eye on rebuilding. With the injuries they’ll be dealing with to start next season, a short-term step back was at least justifiable. But with Patrice Bergeron now expected to return, that idea goes out the window; he’s not coming back to help ease the team through a short-term teardown. That takes the idea of potentially trading Pastrnak and Marchand (the latter of which was probably unlikely to happen anyway) off the table.
W H Twittle: If so, could a trade be built on the basis of Pastrnak for NJ’s 2022 #2 draft pick? Obviously, NJ would need to add a couple of A pieces… that may include their 2023 1st round pick and an A prospect?
Let’s get another Boston one in here. No, I don’t believe David Pastrnak for that second selection is a viable option for either side. But as I just noted, the Bruins aren’t bringing Bergeron back to then turn around and start selling off key players. If that was the route they were taking, Bergeron would be hanging up his skates. If things don’t go well during the season, that could very well change closer to the trade deadline but this type of trade certainly won’t be on the table at that time.
Moving that second pick (and potentially other assets) for Pastrnak makes little sense for the Devils either. If they’re going to move a premium draft pick, it will be for someone in the prime of their career that has several years of team control left (either through being under contract or club control). They’re not moving that pick for a rental player that still probably doesn’t get them into the playoffs next season. And if I’m Pastrnak, with all due respect to New Jersey, I’m not passing up a chance at testing the market to sign a long-term contract with them.
I think people are getting a little too hyped up about the idea of New Jersey moving this draft pick. They’re not shopping the it, they’re simply listening to offers and coming up with a list of players that could make sense to trade for that fit their parameters. Those parameters would involve club control and long-term salary cap planning, among other elements. I don’t think there would be more than four or five players league-wide on that list. Of those, how many will actually be available to move? Maybe two? If GM Tom Fitzgerald doesn’t get the perfect (and I mean perfect, not a ‘close enough’ scenario) offer, they’ll happily keep that pick. There are more ways to get an impact player than by trading a high lottery selection.
Johnny Z: Some have the Flyers being interested in acquiring DeBrincat, what would that look like?
While I, like many, expect Philadelphia to shake things up in terms of their core forwards, I don’t think it’d be for Alex DeBrincat. He’s under the old rule for qualifying offers so he’ll be owed a minimum of $9MM for his qualifier in 2023 although if he has another year like this one, he’ll be getting more than that. That’s going to be tough to fit into their salary structure.
Then there’s the acquisition cost. Chicago would undoubtedly want the fifth-overall pick and with the situation the Flyers are in, moving that pick wouldn’t be wise. That’s their chance to get an impact, cost-controllable player to work into the lineup a couple of years from now to help offset some of their more bloated veteran deals. I know they’re in win-now mode, but moving that pick isn’t a good idea.
There needs to be a cap element to the deal to help offset DeBrincat’s current $6.4MM AAV. That could be James van Riemsdyk but if the Blackhawks don’t want to take that contract back, Oskar Lindblom’s $3MM deal could be an option. Another first-round pick (their own in 2023) would need to be in there. I could see Chicago asking about someone like Morgan Frost or Owen Tippett, former first-rounders that haven’t lit it up just yet. There would probably be another prospect in there as well. That’s a big package for a non-playoff team to pay, especially since DeBrincat alone probably doesn’t get them back to the playoffs.
If I’m GM Chuck Fletcher, I’d rather pay a quality pick or prospect to offload van Riemsdyk’s deal without taking money back and then take a serious run at Johnny Gaudreau in free agency. If they did that and Gaudreau agreed to sign, they’d get a top-line winger without giving up a lot of their cost-controllable future. But if I was Fletcher, I wouldn’t have made the Rasmus Ristolainen trade last summer either so even if I don’t think it’s a good idea, he might be thinking differently.
GBear: It’s July and Gbear has won the lottery and bought the Preds and fired David Poile. I’m bringing in Brian La Rose to interview for the vacant GM position. What moves would you make this offseason and who are you taking with the #17 pick of the draft? :)
Congrats on the big lottery win that allows you to swoop in and outbid Bill Haslam for the team. Before I can answer though, my question to you is what’s my mandate? Do I have the ability to do what I think is best or do you want some playoff revenue? The two options aren’t the same.
Assuming you give me the ability to tear it down, that’s what I’d be looking to do. I don’t think adding a piece or two to this core is going to vault them into contender status. The Predators can keep treading water or they can take a step back and try to reload. I’d look to leverage Matt Duchene’s season as a way to get out of his contract and take a cheaper one back. That scenario was far-fetched last summer but a 43-goal season changes things. Someone’s going to be desperate for a center later in the offseason and there’s an opportunity to strike. I don’t see that being feasible for Ryan Johansen though.
I wouldn’t re-sign Filip Forsberg in that scenario and instead would use the cap space to take on a player from somewhere else, adding picks or prospects for doing so as Arizona has done recently. Ideally, said player then would be flipped with retention at the deadline for another pick or prospect. I’d make Mattias Ekholm available and try to leverage the lack of impact left-shot defenders available in free agency into a significant futures-based return. With teams looking for a starting goalie, Juuse Saros could be had for a significant return; I’d be comfortable with some veteran buffers for a couple of years until Yaroslav Askarov is NHL-ready. I’d aim for a two-year or three-year retooling so Roman Josi would stick around. I’d want to see more minutes for Tanner Jeannot, Philip Tomasino, Eeli Tolvanen, and Alexandre Carrier to see if they’re part of the long-term plans so any cap dumps I’d pick up would be for lower roles on the roster. Philippe Myers gets flipped for whatever the best offer is with the acquiring team getting a cap credit (a move that should be made in both win-now and sell-now scenarios). Since this answer can’t go on forever, that’s a very quick overview of what my plan would be.
Now, if you’re telling me you want early playoff revenues, then it’s a much different approach. Filip Forsberg gets his eight years around $8MM. I’d target Vegas to try to add Nicolas Roy, giving the Preds a third center with some upside. He’s a strong offer sheet target with their cap situation so this could be a chance to add to the position without the return being super high. Andre Burakovsky would be a target to add on the wing to provide a two-way element while still boosting the scoring potential of the second line, shifting some of those younger players onto the third line to really balance out the attack.
On defense, I’d like someone like Josh Manson to shore up the back end but so would a lot of other teams. I’d go into the upper $4MM range for his services which might not be enough to get it done. Ideally, a physical shutdown defender that can take some pressure off the younger players and deepen the back end is the target.
The only reason there’s enough cap space to do all of this is the goaltending. I’d use Connor Ingram as the backup for Saros over. I think he has legitimate NHL upside and sneaking him through waivers isn’t going to happen. His $758K cap hit provides some extra cap flexibility to upgrade an extra spot on the roster and I’d rather put money towards an every-game player over someone who probably is only going to play 20-25 times since there isn’t a big difference between Ingram and a $2MM to $3MM backup. Those additions should be enough to keep the Preds in the playoff hunt for the next couple of years and perhaps even win a round and from there, you never know what can happen.
It’s hard to forecast who’s going to be available with the 17th pick but someone like Denton Mateychuk fits as someone in that range. He’s a bit undersized but is a good offensive defenseman and adding someone to take some pressure off Josi when he slows down would help. A center would be preferable though given the state of their prospect pool so Marco Kasper would also be high on my list. He hasn’t looked out of place in the SHL and there’s a good defensive floor to work with. I think there’s second-line upside with the offensive and a two-way top-six center would be a nice addition in the middle of the first round.
Snapshots: Ovechkin, Schmiemann, Puljujarvi
In the past, there has been an expectation that Capitals winger Alex Ovechkin would finish up his career with Dynamo Moscow in Russia. On Friday, the veteran did indeed sign a contract with them, just not the Dynamo Moscow you might be thinking of. Instead, Dynamo’s soccer team announced the signing of the 36-year-old to a one-game contract, naming him the captain for the match as well. That game was played on Saturday with Ovechkin actually scoring the game-winner against Amkal in a 5-0 victory. Fittingly, given how many of his goals have been scored in the NHL, it came on a one-timer from the left side, the clip of which can be seen here.
More from around the hockey world:
- The Canucks have added some defensive depth at the AHL level as their farm team in Abbotsford announced the signing of Quinn Schmiemann to a two-year deal. The 20-year-old was actually a sixth-round pick of Tampa Bay back in 2019 but wound up not signing and remained in the WHL this season where he picked up 14 goals and 40 assists in 58 games during the regular season while finishing third in scoring for the Blazers in the playoffs with 18 points in 17 contests.
- Sportsnet’s Mark Spector posits that an arbitrator could award pending RFA winger Jesse Puljujarvi a contract in the $3.5MM to $4MM range this summer. That would certainly be a big blow to the Oilers who simply couldn’t afford to carry that type of contract on their books. The 24-year-old has been more impactful since coming back to North America at the start of last season but despite some impressive underlying numbers, he still managed just 14 goals and 22 assists in 2021-22. If that is indeed in the range of where Puljujarvi’s camp sees him landing in an arbitration hearing, it wouldn’t be surprising to see GM Ken Holland shopping him over the coming weeks.
Offseason Checklist: Pittsburgh Penguins
With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at the Penguins.
Despite some key injuries in the playoffs, the Penguins nearly got past the Rangers in the opening round which gave GM Ron Hextall a tough choice to either run it back with this same core with Sidney Crosby still a high-end center or to start a rebuilding phase. Considering their stated intention is to keep their win-now window open, their summer checklist reflects that.
Get Goaltending Stability
Tristan Jarry was once viewed as Pittsburgh’s goalie of the future following a stellar junior career. When Matt Murray was traded to Ottawa two drafts ago, he became their goalie of the present. However, it’s now fair to wonder whether or not he’s their goalie of the future beyond next season. The 27-year-old is coming off a strong regular season that saw him post a GAA of 2.49 and a.919 SV% but 159 games into his NHL career, there are still some questions about whether or not he should be their long-term starter. If management is sold on Jarry, then working out a long-term extension with an AAV starting with a five would be worthwhile and that move can be made as of July 13th.
But what if they don’t feel that way or want to see what 2022-23 brings before making that type of commitment? That’s when things start to get a bit dicey. There is no Jarry-like prospect in the minors that’s a year or two away from being NHL-ready. There isn’t even an NHL-caliber backup under contract with Casey DeSmith set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer and journeyman Louis Domingue (their starter for most of the playoffs) also hitting the open market. In an ideal world, they would add a quality backup on a multi-year deal and give themselves a short-term upgrade at that second spot and a bit of longer-term stability.
Of course, an ideal world implies that they have the cap space to do this and accomplish their other summer objectives. As we’ll get to shortly, the only way something like this could happen is if things don’t go well on those other fronts. A short-term low-cost deal might be all they can afford and if they head into next season with Jarry on an expiring deal and a short-term backup, that’s not an ideal situation to have for a very important position.
Keep Or Replace Veteran Stars
Now, let’s get to the obvious. Right now, Pittsburgh has over $23MM in cap space which sounds wonderful without context. That context is that two of their long-time veteran stars, center Evgeni Malkin and defenseman Kris Letang, will become unrestricted free agents next month. Accordingly, most (if not all) of their offseason planning will revolve around this duo in terms of trying to keep them or finding a way to replace them.
When healthy, Malkin remains a high-end NHL center and has averaged less than a point per game just once in the last decade. However, there’s one other key thing that has happened just once in the last decade and that’s the 36-year-old playing at least 70 games in a season. Malkin has had long run-ins with injury trouble and this past season was no exception which really complicates things from a valuation standpoint. When Malkin is in the lineup and producing at a point-per-game rate, his market value isn’t that far off from the $9.5MM AAV of his soon-to-expire contract. But since he can’t stay in the lineup consistently, it’s also a huge risk to give him that type of money. The only way the Penguins can make part of his pay based on staying healthy is with a one-year deal and Malkin has no reason to accept that as he can likely land a three-year or four-year commitment next month. While a pay cut is likely, it probably won’t be a substantial one.
Then there’s Letang. Over the last four seasons, only three blueliners have more points than the 35-year-old. The low-end in terms of AAV for those three players is $7.875MM (Victor Hedman who left money on the table to stay in Tampa Bay) and the high end is $9.059MM (Nashville’s Roman Josi). You can be sure that Letang’s representatives will be pointing that out in negotiations. Letang isn’t a stalwart defensive defender but he has killed penalties for the Penguins and while he has had injury issues of his own in the past, he has been healthier in recent years. While Pittsburgh would love to try to get Letang for less than his expiring $7.25MM cap hit, he could very easily get more if he gets to the open market. The length of the contract is a priority though so if the Penguins are willing to go with a longer deal than they might prefer, it should yield a lower AAV than he’d get otherwise.
Both players have been franchise stalwarts for the last 16 years but with everything else that Hextall needs to go this summer, it will be difficult to keep (or replace) both at market value and still have money left to fill their other needs. But with how important those two are, they’re certainly going to try to find a way to make it work.
Create Cap Flexibility
If Hextall is going to be able to keep both of his veteran stars, keep some of the other notable pending UFAs (including wingers Rickard Rakell and Evan Rodrigues), find a quality backup goalie, and leave some wiggle room for in-season movement, something has to give. Some tough decisions are going to need to be made on some impact players.
One of those is winger Kasperi Kapanen. The team has twice used a first-round pick on him, first to draft him and then another to re-acquire him back in 2020 but the return on their reinvestment wasn’t great in 2021-22. After an impressive shortened campaign, the 25-year-old struggled this past season, notching just 11 goals and 21 assists in 32 games while chipping in with three assists in their seven-game loss to the Rangers. That’s not a terrible return on a $3.2MM cap hit but it’s safe to say they were hoping for more. If they tender him a qualifying offer this summer (technically speaking, that offer is only worth $840K based on the structure of his expiring deal), Kapanen will be arbitration-eligible where his prior years could push his value closer to $4MM which is below the walkaway threshold. His trade value won’t be overly high because of this situation so a non-tender is a definite possibility. While that would create some extra flexibility, it’d also create another impact roster spot to be filled.
Then there’s Jason Zucker, another winger. Former Penguins GM Jim Rutherford paid a sizable price to bring him in as well but he hasn’t been able to play at the level he did with Minnesota. When he has been healthy (and that has been a struggle the last couple of seasons), he has been more of a secondary producer which isn’t great for someone with a $5.5MM price tag. A buyout would give them a little less than $3.5MM in cap space for next season while adding $1.733MM to 2023-24’s cap but also would create another spot to fill. Alternatively, a trade with some retention that yields less relief next season but carries no penalty for the following year is an option while they could also add a draft pick or prospect to try to get a team to take the contract in full. None of these are desirable but carrying him on the books next season could cost them the ability to retain a more impactful player.
There are also some candidates to move on the back end. Marcus Pettersson hasn’t lived up to his inflated contract, one that carries an AAV of just over $4MM for three more years. Flipping him for someone that makes less money is something that can be considered. John Marino ($4.4MM for five more years) has been in trade speculation going back to during the season and a similar idea could be done with him, especially if they’re able to bring Letang back. It’s unlikely they can clear the full contracts but moving one of them could give them a little more financial flexibility. Even with $23MM in cap room for the time being, the Penguins certainly are going to need all the financial flexibility they can get.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Central Notes: Burakovsky, Raffl, Blackhawks
Colorado could get some help for Sunday’s sixth game against the Lightning. Speaking with reporters today including NHL.com’s Tracey Myers, head coach Jared Bednar indicated that winger Andre Burakovsky will accompany the Avalanche to Tampa Bay and is a possibility to play in that contest. The 27-year-old suffered what is believed to be a hand injury in the second game of the series, taking away one of their key secondary scorers. After recording 61 points in the regular season, Burakovsky has eight in a dozen playoff contests so far. Officially, he remains listed as day-to-day.
Elsewhere in the Central:
- Stars GM Jim Nill recently told reporters, including Matthew DeFranks of the Dallas Morning News, that they tendered a contract offer to pending UFA winger Michael Raffl although it clearly hasn’t been accepted. The 33-year-old managed just 16 points in 76 games this season despite averaging 14:32 per game of ice time so it’s likely that offer came in below the $1.1MM he made in 2021-22. As a depth player, it’s possible he could have an eye on returning overseas to finish off his playing career.
- While some have speculated about the possibility of the Blackhawks moving one or both of franchise stalwarts Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews this summer, Scott Powers of The Athletic reports (subscription link) that the veterans aren’t being shopped and if they do wind up going elsewhere, it will be at their request. The idea of discussing extensions with them hasn’t been ruled out either although that isn’t expected to happen this summer as all sides want to see how things go in what’s expected to be a rebuilding year in Chicago. Kane and Toews are each under contract through next season at a $10.5MM cap hit.
Golden Knights To Hire Sean Burke
After losing Luke Richardson to Chicago as their next head coach (once a contract is finalized next week), the Canadiens have lost another veteran hockey coach and executive as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports in the latest 32 Thoughts podcast (audio link) that the Golden Knights will be hiring Sean Burke in a yet-to-be-determined role; Sirius XM’s Jonathan Davis clarifies (Twitter link) that Burke will become their Director of Goaltending.
That’s the same role that the long-time NHL goaltender was in with Montreal after taking on that position back in March of 2021 after spending parts of five seasons with them as a scout. Burke has also served as a goalie coach with both the Canadiens and the Coyotes in the past although he has been interested in the management side of the game lately so it’s not a given that he’ll take on that role with Vegas. Burke has managerial experience internationally, serving as Canada’s GM at the Olympics, the World Championship, plus the Spengler and Karjala Cups.
Burke will, however, likely play a role in whether or not current goalie coach Mike Rosati returns next season. At the time that Peter DeBoer was let go, GM Kelly McCrimmon indicated that Rosati would have a chance to interview with their new coach (the recently-hired Bruce Cassidy) to see if he retains his position but they’ll certainly lean on Burke’s experience in helping to make that decision in the weeks to come.
PHR Mailbag: Detroit Red Wings Edition
There were several questions about the Red Wings in our latest callout for questions for the PHR Mailbag. Rather than try to condense them to fit them within a full mailbag, let’s examine them in a bit more detail in a Detroit-specific piece. The rest of the mailbag will run on Sunday.
pawdog13: What have you heard about the Red Wings’ coaching search? Crickets everywhere!
@jamara23732: Who do you believe the Red Wings will hire as head coach?
The best way to describe Detroit’s coaching search thus far is that it’s thorough. GM Steve Yzerman is known to be patient and he’s turning over every rock while considering both experienced and first-time options. Barry Trotz interviewed for the opening back in May but Trotz basically interviewed with every team that has a coaching vacancy and then decided to take next season off. David Quinn, the former Rangers head coach, has also been interviewed. He’s someone that has a lot of experience working with younger players and with the Red Wings having a younger roster, that could be appealing. They also interviewed Bruce Cassidy but clearly, that one isn’t happening as he’s now with Vegas.
Speculatively, I think part of their hold up is that Yzerman wants to have a conversation with Derek Lalonde, an assistant with the Lightning. Yzerman was still with Tampa Bay when Lalonde joined them so he will have some familiarity and considering what Tampa Bay has done since then, he has only helped boost his stock since then. Detroit might not be the only team waiting for the Stanley Cup Final to end to have a conversation with Lalonde.
As for who I think they’ll hire, I’ve covered that one in a prior mailbag but I’ll mention it here again in Jim Montgomery. Dallas was doing well under his tutelage before his departure so it’s not as if he’s a first-time bench boss. He also has a track record of working with younger players from his days in college. He’s also someone that fits both types of coaching options. He could be the long-term solution behind the bench which would be great for them but he could also be a transitional coach, one that helps elevate the stock and development of certain players but might not be the right fit in the end. Either option would be a win for them at this stage. In reality, your guess is as good as mine with the lack of information out there about their search but Montgomery would be my pick.
gowings2008: Any idea who the Red Wings may target in free agency? Based on the direction the team is headed, I think adding a player like Andre Burakovsky could make sense.
@jamara23732: What free agents do you see the Red Wings pursuing when free agency starts?
I don’t expect Detroit to necessarily be shopping at the top end of the market yet. Are they ready to flip the switch and move to win-now mode? They’re getting closer to that point but I don’t think it’ll be this summer. That should keep them out of the bidding wars for the top players.
Looking at their depth chart, their center situation stands out. Dylan Larkin is in place although he only has one yet left on his contract. After that, there are a lot of question marks. Pius Suter isn’t a true top-six option and while Michael Rasmussen has shown some improvement, he fits much better on the third line than the second. Joe Veleno has similar upside. Oskar Sundqvist, acquired at the trade deadline, is also a bottom-sixer. There’s a definite need for a top-six center.
Vincent Trocheck is someone I expect them to take a serious run at. He turns 29 next month so he should still have several good seasons ahead of him. He’s not going to push to be a top pivot – that spot is still Larkin’s – but he’d allow Rasmussen and Veleno to slot into the last two center spots and give them a very stable group of middlemen. Good teams need good center depth and Trocheck would give them exactly that. If that doesn’t happen, they might inquire on Andrew Copp and Ryan Strome, similar-aged players that would give them some stability although the upside isn’t as great. I’d be more worried about adding middlemen than wingers at this point so while Burakovsky would certainly help, he shouldn’t be their top priority either.
The left side of their back end is another sizable hole but that will be difficult to fill in free agency as the impact rearguards are righties. I’ve mused in the past about them taking a look at someone like John Klingberg which would free them up to trade Filip Hronek for a lefty that better fits their needs. That might be their best shot at adding an impact left-side defender, actually. Simon Edvinsson will see some time next season but their free agent target on that side might be a veteran like Ian Cole, someone that can play on the third pairing and log some tough minutes on the penalty kill. Keeping Marc Staal is another option. Alexander Edler would be a tier a bit above that but that’s as good as I think they can do on the free agent front on that side of their back end.
On the trade front, if they keep Hronek and don’t add an impact righty, I could see them inquiring about Alec Martinez, a Michigan native. Vegas still needs to clear money and since they played without him for a lot of this past season, they know they can manage without him if need be. With two years left on his contract, he’d be an ideal bridge veteran to work with Edvinsson as well.
Johnny Z: Predict the unpredictable: What is Stevie Y’s big move this summer? Example: What LD vet does he find? Will he bolster the C position and with who? Does he get Larkin extended under $9M? What veteran goalie does he get?
The defense and center spots were covered above and I’ll lean into my Klingberg prediction as their big move with Hronek, who has two years left at an affordable $4.4MM price tag, being flipped for a left-shot defender that’s signed or under team control for at least two more years.
As for Larkin, I do think a long-term extension will get done this summer. He stated at the end of the season that he couldn’t see himself playing elsewhere and then changed agents with the belief being that talks on a new deal will start soon. Unless Yzerman was to low-ball his captain, something should get done.
I’m fairly confident it will be under $9MM per as well. Larkin has never been a point-per-game player and has only come close to that mark twice. In that sense, he’s not a true top center so he shouldn’t be expecting to be paid as such. There are some recent comparables to work off of as well – Mika Zibanejad will get $8.5MM from the Rangers next year, Tomas Hertl is a little over $8MM from San Jose, and Sean Couturier checks in at $7.75MM. Is Larkin’s track record better than those players? He’d have a hard time making that case. He’s younger so there will be an expectation of more in-prime years that should push his AAV into that range instead of being below it but I’d be quite surprised if his next price tag came in above Zibanejad’s $8.5MM.
Now, let’s look at the goaltending situation. I don’t think Jussi Olkinuora is the intended backup although I do like that signing to see if he is indeed a late bloomer. He’ll partner up with Sebastian Cossa in Grand Rapids and it’s his trajectory that Yzerman will need to be mindful of. Yes, he’s a promising prospect but most goalies will need a few years before being NHL-ready. With Alex Nedeljkovic’s deal set to expire next summer, they need someone on a multi-year deal.
This isn’t a great group of veterans to work with so I expect their primary targets to be Ville Husso and Jack Campbell. Both players don’t have the type of clout to command a long-term contract but something in the three-year range is where they should fall. That lines up with Cossa’s timeline in the sense that Husso or Campbell would be expiring when Cossa is ready. At that point, they can either walk or be extended to partner up with him. My pick would be one of those two.
If they go elsewhere, I would be looking towards Washington and one of their pending RFAs. If they want a proven veteran, one of Ilya Samsonov or Vitek Vanecek would be on the move and both of those netminders would be candidates for the medium-term deals I’m suggesting they’ll want to give to Husso or Campbell. They need some stability at the position and getting that should be near the top of Yzerman’s to-do list this summer.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Zdeno Chara To Decide On Playing Future In September
It will take a while before we find out whether or not pending UFA defenseman Zdeno Chara will return for another NHL season. His agent Matt Keator told Matt Porter of the Boston Globe that the veteran intends to take his time before deciding about his playing future:
He’s going to take the summer with his family and assess where he’s at physically, where his family’s at, and make a decision in September. No rush.
The 45-year-old completed his 24th NHL season in 2021-22, returning to the Islanders who originally drafted him back in 1996. Chara played in 72 games this past season, recording 14 points while adding 125 hits and 90 blocked shots. Notably, he logged 18:44 per game, good for fifth among New York blueliners while still taking a regular turn on the penalty kill. All in all, it was a decent return on the $750K base salary plus $750K in performance incentives for the Islanders.
Of course, that type of role is a far cry from being the top blueliner on a team (and even the league with his Norris Trophy win in 2008-09). At this stage of his career, Chara is more of a depth player than an impact one but could still help the right team in a limited defensive role. He sits 20 games shy of being the seventh player in NHL history to reach 1,700 but is still 99 appearances behind Patrick Marleau’s all-time games played record so it’s not as if one more year would give him a chance at setting that new benchmark.
There’s no real risk for Chara to wait out the market and see where things stand in September. Contracts like the one he’d be getting (likely a minimum salary with games played incentives once again) aren’t that difficult to get in the days leading up to training camp so he will have the chance to be selective to see if there’s a good fit for him. If not, he can hang up his skates after quite an impressive career.
Pacific Notes: Miller, Winterton, Yamamoto
Despite the fact that J.T. Miller is coming off a career year, he has been in trade speculation for several months with the Canucks alternating between making him available and not. As CHEK’s Rick Dhaliwal reports (video link), it appears that Vancouver is back in the camp of listening to offers for the 29-year-old. Miller has one year left on his contract with a $5.25MM AAV but after collecting 99 points in 80 games this season, he will have a strong case for a significant extension, one that can be signed as early as mid-July. However, Dhaliwal notes that Vancouver’s internal limit would be an AAV in the high-$7MM range and that will likely come in lower than Miller’s camp will be looking for. Barring a change of heart on how much they’re willing to offer, it would appear that Miller’s name will remain in the rumor mill for a little while yet.
More from the Pacific:
- Kraken prospect Ryan Winterton played an important role for OHL Hamilton as they won the league title and have advanced to the Memorial Cup semifinals. Despite that, Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times reports that Seattle won’t be signing him to his entry-level deal this summer and instead will wait and see how 2022-23 goes. The 18-year-old was a third-round pick in the 2021 draft and potted 20 goals while adding 26 assists in 37 games with the Bulldogs this season while averaging more than a point per game in the playoffs as well.
- Bruce McCurdy of the Edmonton Journal examined the improvements in winger Kailer Yamamoto’s performance following the midseason coaching change which has helped give him leverage heading into contract talks with salary arbitration rights for the first time. However, he suggests another bridge deal (Yamamoto played on a one-year deal this season) is the best way to go. Yamamoto is still four years away from UFA eligibility so a two-year would buy them a bit more time to evaluate the 23-year-old and keep the cap hit lower. Yamamoto is coming off a 20-goal, 41-point season with the Oilers so he’ll still be getting a decent-sized raise on the $1.175MM he made this year.
Offseason Checklist: Boston Bruins
With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at the Bruins.
It wasn’t a particularly eventful season for Boston who once again was one of the stronger teams in the Atlantic Division and while they wound up in a Wild Card spot, they were safely in a playoff spot early on. However, they weren’t able to get past Carolina in the first round and since then, it has been a busy few weeks for the Bruins. GM Don Sweeney will have a lot of work to do over the coming weeks, assuming a new contract gets worked out between now and then.
Hire A New Coach
It was a move that came as a surprise to some but Sweeney and team president Cam Neely opted to make a change behind the bench, dismissing Bruce Cassidy earlier this month. This, despite the team going 245-108-46 under his watch during the regular season. The playoff success hasn’t been there, however, with the team playing a game below .500 which likely played a significant role in the decision to make a change. Cassidy wasn’t out of a job for long and now has a long-term deal to coach in Vegas.
This feels like a crossroads situation for the Bruins and, for the time being, at least, Boston isn’t being linked to many of the veterans that have been around the block with quite a few teams over the years. Their current crop of known candidates consists primarily of first-time options (Seattle assistant Jay Leach, Toronto assistant Spencer Carbery, and Pittsburgh assistant Mike Vellucci) or one-time NHL bench bosses (David Quinn, St. Louis assistant Jim Montgomery, and Boston assistant Joe Sacco).
Turning to that type of coach could signal an openness to try a different path and perhaps even take a short-term step back as none of these options carry the type of win-now expectations that a ‘recycled’ veteran often does. At any rate, Boston will want to have their new bench boss in place by the start of free agency on July 13th as the new coach will want to have some say in their personnel moves.
Re-Sign Or Replace Bergeron
Patrice Bergeron has been a fixture down the middle for Boston for the last 18 years. He’s a five-time Selke Trophy winner and sits 18 points shy of the 1,000-point mark for his career. The 36-year-old hasn’t shown signs of slowing down and is consistently one of their leading scorers. But Bergeron is set to become an unrestricted free agent next month and there is some uncertainty about his future as a result. This isn’t a case of him threatening to test the market and go elsewhere – he has already ruled that out – but rather a case of him deciding whether or not to hang up his skates and call it a career.
That would certainly be a devastating blow for the Bruins as they don’t have anyone in the system to replace him. If Bergeron does retire, Boston will need to go hard after the notable middlemen in free agency highlighted by Nazem Kadri while Vincent Trocheck will also generate plenty of interest. If Evgeni Malkin makes it to the open market, they could check in on him as well with a short-term offer. The other route is to try to trade for an impact middleman but they don’t have their first-rounder this year, their next two second-rounders after next month’s draft, while their prospect pool isn’t the strongest. That will make it difficult to trade for an impact center if it comes to it.
Adding one will certainly be a necessity if Bergeron retires as they don’t have anyone else that’s even an ideal second-line center let alone a top liner. Erik Haula and Charlie Coyle have been hit or miss in key offensive roles in their careers and while they are quality secondary players, they aren’t ideal fits on the top trio. With that in mind, if Bergeron returns, they could still use an impact center behind him.
Forecasting Bergeron’s contract if he chooses to come back is a difficult one since he is limiting his options to only the Bruins; it’s not implausible to think he’d sign a team-friendly contract to give them some extra cap flexibility. As it stands, they have just over $2MM in cap space which is hardly enough to do much of anything with. If Bergeron was to sign a one-year deal, he’d be eligible for incentives which would give them the ability to roll those onto the 2023-24 cap and buy themselves a bit of wiggle room for next season.
Determine Pastrnak’s Future
David Pastrnak has certainly provided plenty of value for a late first-round pick back in 2014. Over his eight-year career, he is just shy of averaging a point per game and has been no lower than third in team scoring over the past six seasons. Basically, he has been a consistent fixture on Boston’s top line while doing so at a team-friendly price as the 26-year-old has been under contract at $6.67MM for the last five years and is signed for the 2022-23 season at that price as well.
Obviously, Boston’s preference will be to sign Pastrnak to a contract extension as soon as he’s eligible once the new league year begins on July 13th. It’s going to take a sizable financial commitment to do so and it’s fair to say his camp will be keeping a close tab on Johnny Gaudreau and Filip Forsberg this summer with Pastrnak’s price tag likely to fall somewhere between what those two get. Something in the $9MM range is certainly doable.
However, there has been some speculation that Pastrnak may not be willing to sign an early extension which will certainly complicate things for Sweeney. While Boston would undoubtedly command a significant return in a trade for him, doing so would also definitively close their window of contention; if Bergeron was to return, they could plausibly give that core one more chance so that has to be taken into consideration. While it’s possible that they go into next season without a new deal in place, that does have its risks. Accordingly, the Bruins will want to have a good sense of what Pastrnak’s intentions are before the start of free agency, so this will need to be near the top of Sweeney’s priority list.
Bring In Defensive Depth
On the surface, the Bruins have some decent defensive depth and will have Jakub Zboril healthy after he missed most of the season due to an injury. With eight defensemen on one-way deals, it would seem like they wouldn’t need any more help.
However, Matt Grzelcyk is out until at least November and Charlie McAvoy is out until at least December due to offseason shoulder surgeries. Mike Reilly also underwent offseason surgery but should be ready for training camp.
While Boston’s depth is decent, they’re going to need some extra bodies to get through the first couple of months of the season. Jack Ahcan could be an option after getting into six games this year but they might want someone with more experience. Accordingly, Sweeney may have his eyes on some veteran depth players for training camp PTOs or two-way contracts with an intention of having them play in Providence once everyone is healthy. With the potential for an NHL roster spot or two to start the season, that could be appealing to those players as they consider their options in free agency next month.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Award Notes: Jim Gregory Award Finalists, All-Rookie Team, All-Star Teams
While there were five awards handed out on Tuesday, there is still one more to be announced. That one is the Jim Gregory General Manager of the Year Award. It’s voted on by all 32 NHL GMs as well as some NHL executives at the end of the second round. Not surprisingly, all three of the finalists, who were named during the NHL Awards show, were among the four to help lead their teams to the conference finals including Julien BriseBois of the Lightning, Chris Drury of the Rangers, and Joe Sakic of the Avalanche. Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello won the award a year ago. The winner for this won’t be announced until partway through the first round of the draft next month in Montreal.
More news from awards night:
- Following the televised portion of the awards, the league announced its All-Rookie team. Boston’s Jeremy Swayman was the goaltender, Nashville’s Alexandre Carrier and Detroit’s Moritz Seider were the defensemen, while Toronto’s Michael Bunting, Anaheim’s Trevor Zegras, and Detroit’s Lucas Raymond comprised the forward group. Seider was the only unanimous choice from the group.
- The NHL also announced its two All-Star teams. Igor Shesterkin (Rangers) was the goalie on the first team and was joined by Roman Josi (Predators), Cale Makar (Avalanche), Johnny Gaudreau (Flames), and Maple Leafs teammates Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Matthews, Gaudreau, and Shesterkin are on the top team for the first time while it was the second nod for the other three.
- The second All-Star team had a pair of Flames in goaltender Jacob Markstrom and winger Matthew Tkachuk. They were joined by defensemen Charlie McAvoy (Bruins) and Victor Hedman (Lightning), winger Jonathan Huberdeau (Panthers), and center Connor McDavid (Oilers).