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Free Agent Focus: Carolina Hurricanes

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Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Coming off a disappointing playoff exit, the Carolina Hurricanes have an extremely eventful summer ahead of them.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Andrei Svechnikov – Despite taking a small step back this season offensively, Svechnikov was a large part of arguably the most successful regular season in Hurricanes history. While seeing the highest ice time of his career, Svechnikov dipped below the 20-goal mark for the first time in his career and was moved up and down the lineup under coach Rod Brind’Amour. It’s not all bad for the young Russian winger, though, as he still managed a respectable 42 points in 55 contests. It was largely a better effort defensively this season for Svechnikov as well, still boosting his value as he earned those extra minutes. With proven 20-goal ability and 30- and even 40-goal potential, Svechnikov likely sees a huge raise on his entry-level contract in the neighborhood of $6MM. It’s interesting to note that Svechnikov is not eligible for arbitration, meaning that negotiations will have to be resolved purely between the team and his agent.

F Warren Foegele – It was another solid season for the 25-year-old forward, who’s settling nicely into a third-line scoring role with Carolina. After being drafted 67th overall in 2014, Foegele crossed the 200-game threshold with his final game of the 2020-21 season. Even through shortened seasons, Foegele’s now scored between 10 and 15 goals in three straight campaigns with his ice time creeping up year by year. He’s trusted in both zones by the coaching staff, and a longer-term, lower-dollar deal could end up benefitting both sides down the road.

G Alex Nedeljkovic – One of the two Calder Trophy finalists who’s up for a new deal next season, Nedeljkovic was a pleasant surprise this season that helped stabilize the Carolina crease. Nedeljkovic sported a sparkling .932 save percentage to lead the league in that category, paired with a 15-5-3 record. Nedeljkovic continued his strong play into the playoffs, as his .920 mark was more than enough to keep the team competitive. He’ll indisputably be given the inside track on the starters’ job next season in Carolina, and will likely earn a short-term, Jordan Binnington-esque contract this offseason.

Other RFAs: F Yegor Korshkov, F Morgan Geekie, F Spencer Smallman, D Jake Bean, D Maxime Lajoie, G Jeremy Helvig

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Dougie Hamilton – While he didn’t have the ideal contract year, Hamilton will be a huge commodity this offseason. A respectable offensive force on the blueline, Hamilton finished 2020-21 with his seventh straight 10-goal campaign. His ability in transition is huge in ensuring that his team is the one with the puck on their sticks, and his 6′ 6″ frame isn’t exactly something to mess with. With a 62-point pace this season over 82 games, he continues to be one of the highest-scoring defenders in the league. The demand for UFA defensemen this season is high, and rumors of a sign-and-trade have swirled surrounding Hamilton. While it’s seeming unlikely he’ll return to Raleigh, there’s always a chance.

G Petr Mrazek – Injuries largely forced Mrazek into a backup role this season. However, it didn’t impact his play when he was in the net – he had arguably one of the best seasons of his career. His .923 save percentage was his highest as a Hurricane, and while his 12-game sample size is certainly a prohibiting factor, it only reinforces Mrazek’s reputation as one of the best tandem netminders in the league. With Nedeljkovic assuming the starting role, it’s unlikely Mrazek will be content to return as a backup. Another team can promise more games and more dollars, which will likely be deserved for the 29-year-old Czech native.

F Brock McGinn – The proposition of McGinn returning to the Canes is, at this point, anybody’s guess. While he showed flashes of strong potential with a 30-point season in 2017-18, McGinn, now 27, has cooled off since then. He’s still been a solid depth contributor, and he even saw some ice time with Sebastian Aho on the first line this season. But with the strength of Carolina’s prospect pool, it may not make much sense to re-sign an aging, declining depth winger. With nearly 350 games of NHL experience, he’ll find a home next season, whether it’s in Carolina or not.

Other UFAs: F Cedric Paquette, F Jordan Martinook, F Max McCormick, F Sheldon Rempal, F David Gust, D Jani Hakanpaa, D Roland McKeown, G James Reimer, G Antoine Bibeau

Projected Cap Space

The Hurricanes have been smart in building a contender, signing players to affordable longer-team deals. It puts Carolina in a position to add big this offseason with nearly $30MM in cap space. They can’t be too playful with their cash, however. After all, they have both goalie spots to fill in addition to big contracts due on both offense and defense. With Nino Niederreiter, Vincent Trocheck, and Martin Necas all in need of extensions after 2021-22, this offseason could be crucial in maintaining long-term success in Carolina.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Golden Knights Notes: Martinez, Janmark, Fleury, Smith, Dansk

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The Vegas Golden Knights’ season came to an abrupt and unlikely end on Thursday night, losing Game 6 and the series in overtime to the cinderella Montreal Canadiens. After steamrolling through four straight games against the Colorado Avalanche in the Second Round, it looked like Vegas might be this year’s team of destiny. But unstoppable force met immovable object, and Vegas fell in the playoffs’ third round for the second consecutive year. Today came Vegas’ first postseason media availability since their elimination, which has yielded many topics worth discussion:

  • Defenseman Alec Martinez, who leads postseason skaters in blocked shots, played at least some of the Stanley Cup Playoffs with a broken foot per Martinez himself today. It’s a startling statement from the pending unrestricted free agent, who, despite the injury, was one of Vegas’ best complete players in the playoffs. He actually tallied more goals than assists (four goals, two assists for six points), but blocked an incredible 72 shots through just 19 games. His stock rose sharply this season, playing well on a pairing with Alex Pietrangelo. The injury likely won’t affect his next contract.
  • Another pending unrestricted free agent who impressed in the playoffs, Mattias Janmark, stated today that he wants to return to the team. Janmark provided some unexpected depth scoring, notching eight points in 16 games despite missing some time with an upper-body injury. Three of his four goals came in a Game 7 hat trick against the Minnesota Wild in the first round, matching a feat accomplished by former teammate Joel Kiviranta last season.
  • It’s worth mentioning Martinez’s and Janmark’s free-agent status due to Vegas’ continuing dangerous dance with the salary cap. Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury, who was heard often in trade rumors before the season due to his steep contract, finds himself in those conversations again due to a couple of mediocre performances against Montreal. But today, Fleury maintained his position that he wants to finish his career in a Golden Knights sweater. He and Robin Lehner have formed one of the most formidable tandems in the league over the past calendar year, capping it off with a Jennings Trophy win this season. It’s worth noting that Fleury had an incredible bounceback 2020-21 campaign after a rough 2019-20, setting a career-high with a .928 save percentage.
  • Looking forward to the 2022 offseason, forward Reilly Smith said today that he hasn’t begun contract negotiations on an extension. Smith has been a critical member of the Vegas core since he was acquired at the expansion draft, totaling 192 points in 265 in a Vegas jersey. It’s unlikely they come to an agreement anytime soon due to Vegas’ tricky cap situation, but it’s certainly a storyline to keep an eye on as the 2021-22 campaign progresses.
  • The Athletic’s Jesse Granger noted today that pending unrestricted free agent Oscar Dansk won’t be returning to the organization. Dansk’s been a member of the Vegas program since their inception, but only got into six games of NHL action across four seasons. It’s likely that the 27-year-old free agent heads home to his native Sweden this offseason, although nothing is confirmed.

PHR Mailbag: San Jose’s Defense, Seattle, Larkin, Islanders, Hamilton, Bruins, Oilers, Flyers, Laine

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include San Jose’s expansion situation for their back end, potential side deals and targets for Seattle, Dylan Larkin’s future with Detroit, how to free up cap space for the Islanders, Dougie Hamilton’s trade value, Boston’s drafting, Edmonton’s need for better complementary forwards, Philadelphia’s summer, and Patrik Laine.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: Could Doug Wilson convince Vlasic and Karlsson to waive their NMCs and then protect 8 forwards/0 defensemen?

That’s certainly a creative idea although it would be tricky to do that and stay in compliance with the requirement for having two signed forwards under contract that played 27 games this year or 54 in the past two combined.  When Gavin looked at their expansion situation last week, they were at zero eligible forwards to begin with.  Adding an extra forward to the protected list is going to make fulfilling that particular obligation that much tougher.

But if they can sign enough forwards that qualify to do that, it would definitely be an avenue worth pursuing.  Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Erik Karlsson aren’t getting picked because of their contract and neither is Brent Burns.  That would certainly limit their exposure to either losing Radim Simek, Josef Korenar (as a depth goalie), or a depth forward.  If they can do that, they’d come out of expansion as one of the more fortunate teams in the league.

jdgoat: Who do you think works out a side deal with Seattle? Also, who will be the most expensive players they end up with?

Washington looks like a strong candidate given that they have to keep their cheap goaltending tandem intact.  There’s no way to protect both Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek and whichever one is unprotected would be tempting for the Kraken so a move will need to be made there.  Tampa Bay is certainly going to try to make a move to entice Seattle to take a pricey contract (Tyler Johnson seems like the speculative fit there).  Calgary could very well wind up leaving Mark Giordano unprotected but it’s hard to imagine they won’t try to find a way to keep their captain around.  If Minnesota can’t find a trade taker for Mathew Dumba in time, they’ll undoubtedly try to make a side deal as well to avoid losing him for nothing.  The same can be said for St. Louis and Vince Dunn.

I think the most expensive player they wind up with may very well come from Philadelphia.  Jakub Voracek ($8.25MM) and James van Riemsdyk ($7MM) could both be unprotected and would jump onto Seattle’s top line right away.  Both commitments are relatively short-term (three years for Voracek, two for van Riemsdyk) so there isn’t much long-term risk here.  I can’t see anyone more expensive than one of those two being selected.

pawtucket: Which UFAs should Seattle go after to compliment the plethora of 3rd line forwards and 5th/6th d-men they get from the expansion draft?

A lot depends on their plans.  Are they looking to win right away or are they eyeing a more gradual buildup which is what most expansion teams wind up going through?  If it’s the former, then they’re going to go after the likes of Dougie Hamilton and Gabriel Landeskog if they get to the open market.  If it’s the latter, however (and I suspect it is), then it’s all about short-term contracts.

Why?  Rental players are always in demand but in this cap environment, not having lingering obligations beyond the current season is even more appealing.  So if I’m GM Ron Francis and thinking more about two or three years from now, I want players that are easy to flip for extra picks or prospects to start building up their system.  They won’t have an AHL team next season but Palm Springs will start in 2022-23 so what’s a good way to start building that team?  By flipping a bunch of rentals at the trade deadline.

Who can still contribute to a team but will likely be stuck taking a one-year deal in free agency?  It’s a long list and that’s where Seattle should be shopping on the open market.

Eaton Harass: Any chance Larkin is available? He’d be a perfect fit for a team like the Avs or Rangers. They definitely have the pieces to get it done.

I don’t think Dylan Larkin is available or should be but I’ll qualify that by noting that I remember writing in a previous mailbag that Anthony Mantha wouldn’t be going anywhere at the deadline and we all know how that turned out.  Teams need capable veteran leadership and while Larkin isn’t exactly a veteran, he’s pretty close to one on this team.  He’s also young enough to be part of that next core which is still probably a few years away.  It’s worth noting that he’s an unrestricted free agent in 2023 and if he gives an indication that he doesn’t want to stay, then yes, move him.  But that feels like a discussion to be had next summer when he’s eligible for a contract extension more than one that needs to happen now.

I’m not sure either Colorado or New York would be a perfect fit either.  If the Avs are able to keep Gabriel Landeskog and Philipp Grubauer (both pending UFAs), they’ll pretty much be capped out re-signing their own talent (which also includes Cale Makar as an RFA).  Is Detroit going to take a return centered around Nazem Kadri for Larkin?  Probably not.  As for the Rangers, Larkin is a good center but is he a true number one?  That’s what they need.  If he’s in that tier that’s slightly below a top center, they already have that in Mika Zibanejad, assuming they’re able to extend him.  Sure, he’d be an upgrade on Ryan Strome on a long-term basis but I feel their top trade chips should be saved for someone that can be more impactful offensively or at least be guaranteed to be around longer than two years, the remaining term of Larkin’s contract.

Joe422: Nobody ever knows what Lou is thinking but the Islanders need to free up cap space to sign their RFA and resign Cizikas. What does Lou do? Trade Nick Leddy? What would he get back? A 2nd and a 3rd round pick? Could you also see Jordan Eberle being left unprotected and Kyle Palmieri be re-signed for less annual $ than Eberle?

Let’s look at that cap situation first.  Per PuckPedia, they have about $75.7MM in commitments to 17 players with, as you noted, Casey Cizikas and Kyle Palmieri among the pending UFAs while Anthony Beauvillier and Ilya Sorokin are among the RFAs.  Even with Johnny Boychuk being eligible for LTIR (allowing them to spend up to $6MM past the cap), you’re absolutely correct in that they need to shed salary.

Leo Komarov and Andrew Ladd look like candidates to be full-season members with AHL Bridgeport, clearing up $1.125MM in space for each of them though those amounts are offset by needing to replace them with someone making close to the minimum.  Still, there’s a few hundred thousand in savings.  Cal Clutterbuck feels like another possible cap casualty, either through waivers or even a buyout.  He plays an important role but he’s way too expensive for that role.  Ross Johnston could also be waived and farmed out with someone making the minimum replacing him, saving $250K.

I expect Cizikas will return at a lower price tag than $3.35MM.  He will be sought after by a lot of teams but most teams can’t pay fourth liners that type of money and that includes the Islanders.  If the offers are near the $2MM mark, he’ll probably stay put.

I don’t see Palmieri sticking around for a couple of reasons.  The first is that I don’t think they’ll leave Eberle unprotected and even if they did, does Seattle find his $5.5MM price tag for three more years appealing?  The second is that I wouldn’t be surprised if Palmieri covets a bigger role than what he had with the Islanders as he was more of a middle-six player than a top-six one (and while both of those involve the second line, I think there’s a distinction between the two).

I agree that Leddy feels like a cap casualty but how strong is his market?  They’d have preferred to trade him instead of Devon Toews a year ago so they can’t expect to get a similar return as they got for Toews for Leddy now.  If there’s going to be an expansion casualty, I think it might be him.  I like Leddy and he’s a serviceable second-pairing defender.  However, this is not a good market to be dumping money and he also is at $5.5MM but just for one more year.  If I’m Seattle, Leddy’s contract is more attractive than Eberle’s if it came to that.  While they’d need to replace him, they should be able to re-sign Adam Pelech and a Leddy replacement for that money (plus Pelech’s previous $1.6MM AAV).

Sorokin looks like a candidate for a bridge deal to keep his cost down and if they go short-term with Beauvillier (even a one-year contract), they can keep the cost manageable.  With the other small cap savings, they should be able to stay cap compliant.

mikedickinson: $8 million seems insane for Hamilton. He looked lost when Slavin was out during the Nashville series. As a Canes fan, what could we expect for compensation? Also, if Dougie leaves, any chance we make a run at Jones, if he’d sign for less than Hamilton?

The one downside to doing what they did by letting his camp talk to teams is that it took away any possibility of doing what they did with Joel Edmundson last fall, flipping his rights to Montreal for a fifth-round pick.  Why trade for exclusive rights when you can already talk to him?  If Hamilton doesn’t really want an eighth year on his contract if the money isn’t as high as he wants, the sign-and-trade isn’t as important either; he can get his seven years from anyone.

I can’t see the return for Hamilton in an extend-and-trade deal being too substantial.  The acquiring team will probably send a contract back to help offset the money and Carolina will be compensated for taking that salary offset on in the form of a draft pick or prospect.  I know that sounds underwhelming but unless Hamilton goes to Carolina and gives them a list of a few teams to choose from, it’s going to be tough to get any sort of bidding war going.  That’s what drives the trade price up and without that element, they don’t have a lot of leverage.

Knowing the emphasis that Carolina puts on their back end, I wouldn’t rule out a run at Seth Jones entirely but that’s an in-division trade for Columbus and I doubt that’s their preference.  But yeah, I think they’d kick the tires at least and someone like Brady Skjei, who has three years left at a reasonable rate for a second-pairing player, could be of some interest to the Blue Jackets.  I suspect they want to send him out West if they can, however.

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No Progress In Contract Talks For Conor Garland

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Coyotes winger Conor Garland is coming off a career season that saw him collect 12 goals and 27 assists in just 49 games.  The timing of that year couldn’t have been better as while he played under a bargain deal the last two years with an AAV of just $775K, that contract is now over.  Garland now gets to hit restricted free agency with salary arbitration eligibility which has him well-positioned for a significant raise.

On the surface, it would seem as if this would be a situation where GM Bill Armstrong might want to get a head start on discussions on a new deal but that doesn’t appear to be the case.  Garland’s agent Peter Cooney told Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli that the team requested two types of contract proposals on May 20th.  Those were submitted but Cooney notes that there has been no communication since then which calls into his question his future with Arizona.

It’s certainly not the first time this has been the case as there were reports before the trade deadline that the team was willing to move Garland for the right price, one that they obviously didn’t get.  But clearly, Armstrong isn’t sold on the winger being a must-keep part of their long-term future which, for a team that struggles offensively, is a little odd.

The Coyotes have over $31MM in cap room this offseason per CapFriendly so the hesitancy certainly isn’t cap-related although Arizona’s internal budget could be a factor.  They will have to rebuild a significant portion of their back end this summer with four regulars set to hit the open market and Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s future with the team in question as well.  If they want to use Garland as a trade chip, he could be dangled to fill one of those holes on the back end although it would also create a big one to fill on the wing.

Lots can change between now and the deadline to file for arbitration which should come in near the beginning of August but for now, it certainly seems as if Garland’s time in Arizona is rather tenuous.  He’ll be an interesting player to watch for on the trade market in the coming weeks as a result.

Poll: Who Will Win The 2021 Stanley Cup?

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The 2020-21 NHL season has been an adventurous one and that’s putting it lightly.  From a delayed start to rapid in-season scheduling changes, there have been plenty of hiccups along the way but they managed to make it through the abbreviated regular season schedule and the first three rounds of the playoffs.  Included in the schedule this season, of course, were new divisions with the end result being that a team that’s normally in the East won the trophy that typically goes to the winner of the Western Conference.  In a year like this though, there have been stranger things than that.

In the end, there are just two teams remaining.  One is the defending Stanley Cup champion that many expected to be in the mix to win it again.  The other is a team that lost more games than it won during the regular season and virtually no one expected them to make it anywhere near this far.

Let’s start with Tampa Bay.  The defending champs added a healthy Nikita Kucherov to the mix for the playoffs after he missed the entire season due to hip surgery and he hasn’t missed a beat; his 27 points not only lead the team but lead the entire league in scoring so far.  Brayden Point just had a nine-game goal stretch snapped in Friday’s series-clinching victory over the Islanders and the end result is an attack that is averaging the second-most goals per game of any playoff team at 3.22 (Colorado was first, averaging 3.8 in their two series).  They’re also one of the stingiest defensive teams with Andrei Vasilevskiy pitching four shutouts already.

As for Montreal, they’ve won with a balanced lineup that has taken turns scoring just enough in key moments to get them over the top.  Cole Caufield – who was playing college hockey three months ago – has turned into a key cog offensively while Nick Suzuki has elevated his play in the playoffs for the second straight year as well.  Carey Price is playing some of the best hockey of his career and their penalty kill has been nothing short of outstanding.  They haven’t allowed a power play goal in 13 games – an NHL playoff record – and have killed off 30 straight opportunities (outscoring their opponents 3-0 along the way).

That theme may very well be the most interesting one of the series (even more than the goalie matchup) – Montreal’s dominant penalty kill versus Tampa Bay’s elite power play which is clicking along at a whopping 37.7%.  While there haven’t been a lot of penalties called in the playoffs, special teams have been game-changers for both teams so far.  Will that trend continue for one of them?

It’s a unique Stanley Cup matchup, one that we’re unlikely to see again since the league is going back to its usual conference format for 2021-22 and beyond.  Which team will come out victorious?  Will the Lightning make it two in a row or will the Canadiens pull off one more upset?  Make your prediction by voting in the poll below.

Who Will Win The 2021 Stanley Cup?
Lightning in 6 28.52% (470 votes)
Canadiens in 6 23.73% (391 votes)
Lightning in 5 20.81% (343 votes)
Canadiens in 7 14.81% (244 votes)
Lightning in 4 4.98% (82 votes)
Lightning in 7 3.28% (54 votes)
Canadiens in 5 2.43% (40 votes)
Canadiens in 5 1.46% (24 votes)
Total Votes: 1,648

Mobile users, click here to vote.

Beau Bennett Announces Retirement

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Free agent winger Beau Bennett has decided to call it a career, announcing (Twitter link) that he has retired.  The 29-year-old didn’t play this season and in his announcement, he cited injuries as a reason for the decision.

Bennett spent parts of six seasons in the NHL after being a first-round pick of the Penguins (20th overall) back in 2010.  While he showed some flashes of offensive upside over 129 games with Pittsburgh, he was never able to lock down a full-time roster spot and eventually was moved to New Jersey in 2016.  He had a career year with the Devils that season but was still non-tendered, eventually signing with the Blues as a free agent but spent most of 2017-18 in the minors.  Bennett was last on an NHL contract in 2019-20 with Arizona but despite finishing fourth in scoring with AHL Tucson, he didn’t get an opportunity with the Coyotes.

In the end, Bennett wound up with 200 career NHL games played, tallying 20 goals and 44 assists.  While that’s not a great return from a first-round selection, there were eight others taken in the first round that have less NHL experience than he does and he sits 22nd in scoring among first-round picks from that draft class.  Instead of attempting a comeback to try to add to his point total, he’s moving on from playing and will now work with amateur and youth hockey players.

Expansion Primer: Montreal Canadiens

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Back in 2017, the Canadiens lost Alexei Emelin to Vegas.  Unless they want to risk losing a notable forward this time around, history could repeat itself with Seattle likely to be interested in one of Montreal’s blueliners.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Josh Anderson, Joseph Blandisi, Paul Byron, Laurent Dauphin, Jonathan Drouin, Jake Evans, Brendan Gallagher (NMC), Charles Hudon, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Artturi Lehkonen, Michael Pezzetta, Tyler Toffoli, Lukas Vejdemo

Defense:
Ben Chiarot, Joel Edmundson, Cale Fleury, Brett Kulak, Xavier Ouellet, Jeff Petry (NMC), Shea Weber

Goalies:
Jake Allen, Michael McNiven, Carey Price (NMC)

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Joel Armia, F Phillip Danault, F Michael Frolik, D Erik Gustafsson, D Jonathon Merrill, F Corey Perry, F Eric Staal, F Tomas Tatar

Notable Exemptions

F Cole Caufield, F Ryan Poehling, G Cayden Primeau, D Alexander Romanov, F Nick Suzuki, F Jesse Ylonen

Key Decisions

The goaltending one is pretty easy.  Price will be protected and Allen, beginning a cheaper two-year deal next season, will be exposed.  He will certainly be under consideration by the Kraken.

On the back end, Petry’s no-move clause means he’ll be protected and while Weber’s contract could be viewed as enough of a deterrent to leave him exposed, his performance in the playoffs so far makes that unlikely.  It would be difficult for Montreal to leave their captain available.

If they go with the standard 7/3/1 scheme, that only leaves one spot left and a trio of interesting options to choose from.  A few years ago, Chiarot was a role player with Winnipeg and at the time he signed his three-year, $10.5MM deal with the Canadiens, it seemed like quite the overpayment.  Then he played his way onto the top pairing, a spot he maintained for a lot of this year.  He’s the only full-time skater to not record a point so far in the playoffs but he’s also averaging 25:37 per game, just one second behind Weber for the team lead.  Even though that’s not necessarily the ideal role for him, Chiarot would probably be one of Seattle’s better rearguards and with him being on an affordable expiring contract, he’s someone that could yield a notable return if they looked to flip him.

Then there’s Edmundson.  While his four-year, $14MM contract also looked like a small overpayment (especially considering the way the UFA market went), he played quite well with Petry this season and certainly solidified their top-four.  That has continued in the playoffs where he’s up over 23 minutes per game.  All of a sudden, his $3.5MM price tag for three more years could be viewed as appealing.

Kulak also warrants a mention.  His possession stats have generally been well above average but that hasn’t resulted in a lot of playing time, including in their playoff run.  But Seattle appears to be a team that is highly invested in analytics and viewed through those stats, he could be more attractive than Chiarot or Edmundson while basically being half the price.

Up front, there are four safe bets to be protected in Gallagher, Anderson, Toffoli, and Kotkaniemi.  Things get a little trickier from there, however.

The key to Montreal’s expansion strategy is Drouin.  Heading into the season, the thought of leaving him unprotected would have seemed unrealistic.  However, he struggled to score this season, scoring just twice in 44 games, hardly an ideal output from a $5.5MM contract.  He missed the end of the regular season plus all of the playoffs on a personal leave of absence, one that has yielded more questions than answers.  When will he come back?  Will he come back at all?  If he does, will it be with Montreal or will there be a trade request?  With the uncertainty surrounding his situation, his contract (which has two years left), and his struggles this season, Drouin’s trade value is arguably at an all-time low.  Would Seattle take a swing on the potential upside or would the questions scare them off, making it more beneficial to leave him unprotected?  GM Marc Bergevin will have a few more weeks to try to figure out the answers to those questions.

Evans is another potential wild card.  His NHL experience is relatively limited (just 60 career regular season games) but the 25-year-old did well in limited playoff action and is nearing a return.  He’s also signed for another year at the league minimum.  Center depth among unprotected players around the league may not be the greatest so a cheap youngster could interest Seattle GM Ron Francis.  Montreal might want to protect him but they’re a team that has a lot of unsigned players right now; to meet the requirement of two signed skaters with enough games played, he might have to be made available, especially if they don’t want to take the chance of losing Drouin.

Lehkonen is someone whose regular season potentially had him in that iffy zone of being qualified at $2.2MM with arbitration rights.  He’s undoubtedly a strong defensive forward but aside from his rookie season, he hasn’t been much of a goal scorer (although he did get the series-winner against Vegas) and the open market wasn’t kind to those players in the fall.  He has helped his value to the point where he’s probably protected in a 7/3/1 scheme but he could also be a capable checker for the Kraken if they protect the four defensemen.

Projected Protection List

F Josh Anderson
F Brendan Gallagher (NMC)
F Jesperi Kotkaniemi
F Tyler Toffoli

D Ben Chiarot
D Joel Edmundson
D Jeff Petry (NMC)
D Shea Weber

G Carey Price (NMC)

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Paul Byron, Jonathan Drouin, Jake Evans
Defensemen (1): Brett Kulak

There are a few different ways that Francis could go here.  Adding Allen is certainly a safe decision; he isn’t a true number one but can still play 40-45 games and at $2.875MM, he’s on an affordable contract and would be part of the plans beyond 2021-22.  Drouin has the most upside but the highest risk of any of the skaters unprotected.  Lehkonen (who isn’t listed above since he’s a restricted free agent and the above group is only for signed players) would be a viable middle-six forward while Evans and Kulak are more under the radar options but could be picked as well.

For Montreal to switch to a 7/3/1 scheme, they need to get another forward signed.  Giving Perry a new deal and then exposing him with Byron (while protecting Drouin, Lehkonen, and Evans) would meet the exposure requirements but would also run the risk of losing Chiarot or Edmundson.  With the way they’ve played in the playoffs, whichever is left available could very well become the favorite to be selected.  While their mindset is justifiably on the Stanley Cup Final against Tampa Bay, there will need to be some decisions made soon on the expansion front.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

East Notes: Capitals Cap Overage, Jankowski, Lycksell

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Washington will be facing a bonus overage penalty of nearly $473K for next season, Mike Vogel of the Capitals’ team site relays (Twitter link).  Defenseman Zdeno Chara reached his games played and playoff qualification bonuses while goaltender Ilya Samsonov met his shutout bonus mark as well.  With the team being in LTIR all season long due to injuries to blueliner Michal Kempny and goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, they were never in a position to bank any space during the season that could have offset those bonuses.  The Caps already have over $72MM in commitments for next season per CapFriendly and still have to re-sign captain Alex Ovechkin, Samsonov, and round out the rest of their roster.  GM Brian MacLellan will undoubtedly be working hard in the coming weeks to free up some much-needed cap flexibility.

More from the East Division:

  • The Penguins are unlikely to tender center Mark Jankowski a qualifying offer next month, suggests Seth Rorabaugh of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The 26-year-old signed a minimum-salary contract after being non-tendered by Calgary back in the fall in a move that looked like a good one for both sides at the time.  However, he was largely ineffective during the season and was a healthy scratch down the stretch and for their entire first-round series.  Jankowski is only owed a qualifying offer of $750K – next season’s league minimum – but with arbitration eligibility, he could get a bit more than that in a hearing.  With their cap situation, that little bit more is probably more than they can afford for a player on the fringes of the roster.
  • Flyers prospect Olle Lycksell signed his entry-level contract last month but the team will have to wait a little while longer to get him to North America as Vaxjo of the SHL announced that they’ve added the 21-year-old forward on loan for the entire 2021-22 season. Despite not playing in Philadelphia’s system next season, Lycksell will still burn the first year of his contract.

Offseason Checklist: Pittsburgh Penguins

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The offseason has arrived for all but a few teams.  It’s now time to examine what those clubs need to accomplish over the coming months.  It’s going to be a busy summer. What is on deck for the Pittsburgh Penguins?

The Pittsburgh Penguins finished first in what was arguably the best division in the NHL this season. The East boasted the likes of the Washington Capitals, Boston Bruins, New York Islanders, and even the New York Rangers, the best team not to make the playoffs. Yet, Pittsburgh finished with 77 points for the fifth-best record in the league despite stiff competition. It seemed like Sidney Crosby and company were primed for another deep playoff run this season. Instead, it all came crashing down quickly in a first-round loss to the Islanders in which Pittsburgh could not counter New York’s smothering approach. The Penguins’ weaknesses were exposed in the postseason and must be addressed in the offseason, but the team currently lacks the flexibility to do much of anything.

Shed Salary

The Penguins cannot start adding until they do some subtracting. Pittsburgh is currently pegged to have just $3.2MM in salary cap space heading into the off-season, a projection that includes just 19 contracts. Forget improving the roster, Pittsburgh needs to create cap space just to preserve their current roster, as key restricted free agents Teddy Blueger and Zach Aston-Reese require new contract and the team will likely try to re-sign impending UFA defenseman Cody Ceci as well. Those three alone will cost well more than $3.2MM.

The Penguins could actually receive some help from the Expansion Draft – if they are lucky. Pittsburgh is likely to expose both forward Jason Zucker and defenseman Marcus Pettersson in expansion; the pair are talented players, but underperformed in 2020-21, especially relative to their substantial contracts. Either player would be a loss for the team, but the added cap space would more than make up for the departure.

If the Seattle Kraken instead grab Aston-Reese, Blueger, or Jeff Carter, the Penguins will be in trouble. Even if the pick is Zucker or Pettersson, new GM Ron Hextall will still likely work the phones in an effort to move some salary. Again, Zucker and Pettersson are both good players and the Penguins will not just give them away, but they could be had for a bargain price this summer as Pittsburgh is desperate to shed salary.

Add a Goaltender

What will the Penguins do if they can open up cap space? Hextall, a former goalie himself, has already hinted that adding a veteran netminder is a priority for Pittsburgh this offseason. It is difficult to look at the team’s postseason collapse and not attribute much of the blame to starter Tristan Jarry. The young keeper followed up a stellar 2019-20 season with a decent regular season this year, but he struggled greatly in the postseason and kept the Penguins out of several games. Backup Casey DeSmith actually outplayed Jarry this season, albeit in lesser games, but he himself is also streaky. More importantly, DeSmith is injury-prone and is not a reliable understudy to Jarry. The Penguins need a reliable veteran presence to push their young starter.

Of course, the popular prediction is going to be old friend Marc-Andre Fleury. The Vegas Golden Knights are also looking to shed salary and who better than Fleury, coming off an incredible season, to return to Pittsburgh to stabilize the net before he rides off into the sunset, retiring as Penguin. It all sounds great, but Pittsburgh taking on Fleury’s $7MM salary is an impossibility and Vegas retaining considerable salary, if any, is unlikely. A return for Fleury is probably not going to happen, but the shared history means it can’t be ruled out compeltely.

More reasonable targets include free agents  Frederik Andersen, Jonathan Bernier, James Reimer, Antti Raanta, Jaroslav Halak or Devan Dubnyk. Even a young UFA like Linus Ullmark or Chris Driedger could see Pittsburgh as a good opportunity to win a starting role and prove they can be a top option. If the Penguins are lucky, the market may actually drive down the salary requirements if there are a number of goalies interested in a great situation to win games and have an open competition in net. While free agency seems like the more viable route, trade options will be numerous and the Expansion Draft could shake up the market. Anton Khudobin stands out as an ideal trade candidate.

Improve the Bottom Six

Another area where Hextall and company have been open about their desire to improve is in their forward corps. The Penguins have no problem scoring, but their two-way play up front was a major concern this season. For Pittsburgh to take a step forward and return to postseason success, they must become harder to play against. That starts with getting better defensive play and physical engagement from their forwards. Hextall has harped on the Penguins needing to be more physical and has talked about adding size and grit this off-season, but it’s more than that. Pittsburgh was poor on the penalty kill this season, did not block shorts (particularly at forward) and their issues at the face-off dot continued through the regular season and into the playoffs. In nearly all facets of defensive play, the Penguins must improve.

With that said, retaining the likes of Blueger and Aston-Reese through expansion, getting a full season of Carter, and getting a healthy season from Brandon Tanev is already a great start to improved bottom-six play. The roster does not need a complete overhaul to improve team defense. That doesn’t mean that they can’t add another impact player though. Mark Jankowski, Evan Rodrigues, and Colton Sceviour were not the answer this season and all three are on their way out of town. The Penguins need to use what little cap space they may have left after re-signing their key free agents and adding a goalie to add another veteran difference-maker to round out the bottom-six.

Decide the Future of Malkin and Letang

What is to become of the Penguins’ long-time core? Crosby is still as good as ever and still signed for several years, but Malkin and Letang are entering the final years of their current contracts. Malkin is coming off a down year by his standards and will spend all summer rehabbing from an injury. Letang continues to show signs of slow but steady decline and is not playing up to his $7.25MM price tag. Yet, both players are still major contributors to the team and franchise icons. The new administration has vowed to stick with them, but for how long? Do they enter the season on expiring contracts and deal with the repercussions? Do they sign them to extensions this summer despite the concerns? Do they trade one? Both? There are major questions that need answering about the veteran stars. The front office does not want to hurt themselves in the short-term by moving on too soon from either one, but they also don’t want to hamstring themselves long-term by throwing out new contracts that aren’t necessarily warranted. It’s a difficult decision and one that will weigh on the team this summer.

 

 

Snapshots: Coyotes’ Coach Search, Nylander, Ak Bars

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With head coaches flying off the market and one of the top available names being the guy they just let go, the Arizona Coyotes’ hunt for a head coach is in an interesting spot. From the get-go, the word was that the ’Yotes and GM Bill Armstrong could be looking for a fresh voice, perhaps even a first-time NHL coach, so they may be unfazed by the recent run on big names. Yet, insider Craig Morgan reports that one of their top candidates is in fact a seasoned veteran. Morgan writes that Dallas Stars assistant Todd Nelson is scheduled to have his third interview for the vacancy, by all accounts the most of any candidate. Nelson has been in the NHL (or AHL) since 2006, including a brief stint as the head coach of the Edmonton Oilers. He has found great success in the minors, winning two Calder Cups, and never really got a fair shake as the bench boss in Edmonton, so in a way he would be somewhat of a first-time NHL head coach. He has picked up experience in Dallas over the past three years under Jim Montgomery and Rick Bowness and could be ready for another shot at the top job.

Morgan considers Nelson’s greatest competition to be Andre Tourigny, the head coach of the OHL’s Ottawa 67’s and most recently an assistant for Canada’s gold medal World Championship entry. Tourigny briefly coached in the NHL as an assistant with the Colorado Avalanche and Ottawa Senators over three years, but has mostly coached at the major junior level and has been the bench boss of Canada’s World Junior team the past two years. Tourigny has found immense success working with young players; he has been named OHL Coach of the Year (twice), QMJHL Coach of the Year, and the overall CHL Coach of the Year, not to mention medals at four World Juniors. Can he translate that ability to the pros and lead a Coyotes team that needs to take a step forward rather than continuing to tread water? That is the question that Armstrong must answer. According to Morgan, he has already decided that St. Louis Blues assistant Mike Van Ryn and AHL Providence head coach Jay Leach are not the men for the job.

  • The Chicago Blackhawks just gained some Expansion Draft flexibility. The Athletic’s Scott Powers reports that Alexander Nylander has been declared exempt from the impending selection process. In order to be eligible for the draft, a player must have three pro service years. Nylander, who has been playing professionally in North America for five seasons, may seem like an impossibility to avoid that label, but somehow he does. Despite playing in 116 AHL games between 2016-17 and 2017-18, he played in only seven combined NHL games and his rookie contract underwent the entry-level slide each season, meaning service time did not accrue. He then played countable NHL season in each of the past two years. However, this season – in what was meant to be his third year of service – Nylander missed the entire campaign due to injury. This means that, again, his service time will not clock. After five years in and out of the NHL, Nylander will be considered a second-year pro and untouchable for the Seattle Kraken. As Powers notes, Nylander was expected to be protected by the Blackhawks next month. Now off the board, it will allow the team to protected another forward that they may not have expected. He suggests deadline addition Adam Gaudette or reliable fourth-liner David Kampf could be the pick, while young, high-upside assets Brandon Hagel and Henrik Borgstrom should now be locks.
  • The KHL’s Ak Bars Kazan has succeeded in keeping a pair of drafted prospects away from their NHL teams for a while longer. The team announced that they have re-signed Columbus’ Dmitri Voronkov and Anaheim’s Artyom Galimov to multi-year extensions. At their age, this is not an NHL career death sentence for either player, but it is likely disheartening to their teams who would like to get them on North American ice as soon as possible. 20-year-old Voronkov, a 2019 fourth-round pick of the Blue Jackets, has signed a two-year deal with Ak Bars after setting career highs across the board in the KHL this season. The impressive youngster has already played two full seasons in the KHL and has been dominant for Russia on the World Junior stage as well. Voronkov’s name carries weight as a prospect and the Jackets undoubtedly hope that he will follow WJC teammate Yegor Chinakhov to Columbus as soon as his new contract expires. There is a bit more cause for pause when it comes to Galimov. The 21-year-old was an overage pick by the Ducks just last year and despite his age has signed a three-year extension with Ak Bars. Galimov is a grassroots product of Kazan and has loyalty to the club, as they do to him after two successful seasons to begin his KHL career. Galimov has actually outpaced Voronkov to this point, showing that he too is a serious NHL prospect. However, Galimov will be 25 years old before he could ever step onto Anaheim ice and will have that much more attachment to Ak Bars. His ability should keep him interested in the NHL and the Ducks in him, but it is not a guarantee.

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