Month: July 2021

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include an underachieving Bruin, some crystal ball predictions, the goalie situation for the Golden Knights, buyout candidates, and much, much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

Puckhead83: You’re Don Sweeney. Are you exposing Jake DeBrusk and taking the cap relief, trading him at his lowest value, or making him your reclamation project?

Can I take none of the above?  If I’m Sweeney, I’m leaning towards buying DeBrusk out and taking the cap relief that way.  The structure of his backloaded contract gives Boston a cap credit of $367K in 2021-22 and a charge of $808K in 2022-23; his buyout is only one-third instead of two-thirds because of his age (24).  His qualifying offer in 2022-23 is $4.85MM and even a decent bounce-back season probably isn’t worthy of a tender so making him the reclamation project doesn’t make sense.

I’d leave him unprotected in expansion but I don’t think Seattle would bite.  Jeremy Lauzon is my preferred target from the Bruins, a young and cheap defenseman with some upside and can already handle himself in the NHL.

As for a trade, what’s better for Boston – roughly $4MM in cap space this summer or taking on a similar underperformer in a trade for DeBrusk?  The UFA market is going to be like last fall; there will be bargains to be had.  If I’m Sweeney, I’m making my bet that a UFA signing will be a better fit than the addition of the prototypical change of scenery swap player that I’d get in a swap.

The Duke: Crystal Ball time: Where will Ekman-Larsson and Kessel end up – and what’s Adin Hill’s future hold? Bonus question: who will be Nashville’s backup goalie – and what is Connor Ingram’s status? Thanks!

Oliver Ekman-Larsson: I think he stays in Arizona.  The Coyotes aren’t a team that’s going to want to carry a lot of dead money on the books and with the cap environment being what it is and the year he had, no one is taking on the six years and $8.25MM AAV outright.  There’s a new coach in Andre Tourigny so why not see if the captain can turn things around over selling low and paying him a good chunk of money not to play for them?

Phil Kessel: They’ve already paid most of his contract for next season in the form of a signing bonus and only owe him $800K with Toronto covering the other $200K.  This a budget-conscious team so while I know his name is out there, I don’t think they’re in much of a hurry to move his contract.  If they’re out of it at the deadline, he’ll move then but I think he stays with the Coyotes.

Hill: He should be in the NHL next season, either as Darcy Kuemper’s backup or picked by Seattle in expansion.  Hill has two years before reaching UFA eligibility so he is going to have to establish himself as a legitimate backup between now and then.  He should get that chance starting next year though.

Ingram: Ingram did return to Nashville’s farm team late in the season and still has two years left on his contract with the final year being a one-way pact.  He’s now waiver-eligible and is one of the more intriguing netminders in that situation.  This year was a write-off with everything that happened which could push him out of the mix to be the Predators’ backup but in 2019-20, he was nothing short of dominant.  Is there a team that is willing to give him a chance based on that?  I’m quite interested in seeing how that plays out in the fall.

DirtbagBlues: Can Vegas really afford to keep this goalie tandem? There seems to be no interest in moving either of them, but they could badly use the cap space. Not that this helps them with the cap, but if Vegas doesn’t trade an NHL goalie, could Logan Thompson be moved for a young skater?

They can afford to if they want.  They have probably three or four roster spots to fill (two forwards plus one or two defensemen) and roughly $6MM in cap space.  Go cheap on those slots and there is room to keep both Marc-Andre Fleury and Robin Lehner.  However, they’d be parting ways with Alec Martinez, Mattias Janmark, and potentially Tomas Nosek in the process and taking a step backwards so the question becomes is keeping both the right move to make?

Last year, the asking price to take on Fleury’s deal was high but things have changed since then.  He’s now the reigning Vezina winner which helps his value.  He also now has just one year left on his contract which also helps his value.  With so many other goalies available in free agency, Vegas couldn’t command a significant return but they shouldn’t have to pay to get out of it either.  Meanwhile, with Fleury being 36, they can’t really move Lehner who is the goalie of the near future.  They can make keeping both of them work but there is a definite opportunity cost in doing so.

As for moving Thompson, sure, he could be swapped for a young skater but it would be of the fringe variety.  He has one very good AHL season under his belt but that alone doesn’t give him much trade value.  They’re not going to get someone that could step into the bottom six up front or the third pairing defensively for someone with that small of a track record.  I’d hold onto him and if he has another strong year in Henderson, he’s a cost-effective backup to Lehner in 2022-23.

wreckage: Who is the most likely buyout candidate?

Anthony DeAngelo of the Rangers is the most obvious one.  They’re not going to pay him $5.3MM in salary to sit at home for another year when a buyout cap charge would be less than $1.2MM spread out over two seasons.  Teams aren’t going to trade for him at that salary so that one is pretty much a lock.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Jake Virtanen is in a similar situation.  The off-ice situation is still in play and his play on the ice (five goals and zero assists in 38 games) doesn’t warrant the contract he has.  It’s another one-third buyout with just a $50K cap charge next season and $500K the year after that.  Vancouver can do better with that money.

In terms of veterans, Edmonton’s Mikko Koskinen also seems quite likely.  There is now only one year left on his deal at $4.5MM and that’s way too much money for a backup goalie that can’t be relied on.  Even with a $1.5MM buyout charge for two years, I suspect GM Ken Holland can find a better fit between the pipes for the net $3MM savings for next season.  With some uncertainty with a long-term starting option, they can’t afford to carry more uncertainty at the backup spot either.

I expect a few more buyouts than these but it would be surprising if any of these three aren’t hitting the open market later this month.

@DJ23420117: What are the Wild going to do about Parise? Buyout? Trade w/Kraken? Keep him and make nice?

There is no good answer in this situation.  Let’s get that out of the way first.  The buyout cost – one that would give them some room next season before jumping to $6.3MM, $7.3MM, and $7.3MM – accomplishes next to nothing.  With his AAV being $7.538MM, they can’t even replace him without incurring a higher cap hit than had they just kept him.  In that situation, keeping him makes sense although he’s clearly unhappy with the situation.

A trade with Seattle is nice in theory but what would it cost to get them to take the contract on?  With the market being what it is, we’re probably looking at multiple first-round picks or comparable assets while also locking in the potential for salary cap recapture if he decides to retire early.

Honestly, I think they may be better off just keeping him; I don’t know about the make nice part though.  No one is happy in this scenario either but I wouldn’t want to give up so many future pieces to move him or create a bunch of dead cap space that winds up costing them more money to fill his spot in some of those years than it would be to keep him.  There’s no desirable answer here so for Parise, it’ll be a matter of choosing the least undesirable solution.

Y2KAK: Any chance Buffalo doesn’t go Owen Power?

Nothing is ever 100% certain but the odds they don’t go with Power would be low.  I doubt they’re concerned with him leaning towards staying in college for another year; that wouldn’t scare them off from picking him.  Big, top pairing defenders don’t become available very often and passing on one wouldn’t make much sense.

About the only scenario where I could maybe see them not taking him is if they traded Jack Eichel for a package that really shored up their defense with multiple long-term pieces to the point where they then look at someone like Matthew Beniers to replace Eichel up the middle.  But even that isn’t a very realistic scenario.  I’d be really surprised if Power isn’t a Sabre later this month.

Red Wings: What would it take for the Panthers to get rid of Bobrovsky? Or more realistically Yandle?

To move Sergei Bobrovsky, it would take eating a significant chunk of his $10MM cap hit for the next five seasons.  That’s a lot of money to pay someone not to play for them and as a budget-conscious team, it’s an even bigger hit.  From there, they’d have to take on a deal with at least three years left at a similar price tag as the non-retained portion on Bobrovsky.  Is that worth doing for Florida?  Probably not at this stage.  I’m not expecting him to rebound significantly next season but a small improvement could get him closer to league average.  That, coupled with one less year on his contract a year from now, might make it slightly less difficult to move him.

You’re correct that Keith Yandle is the more realistic trade option.  With only two years left and a $6.35MM cap hit, that’s a lot less of a hit to take on than Bobrovsky.  Yandle can also still contribute offensively although his struggles in his own end are what ultimately led to him being scratched in the playoffs.  The formula to a trade is similar to Bobrovsky – retain a sizable percentage and take a player back making the difference between Yandle’s AAV and the retained portion, creating a cap-neutral trade which will be a key to many moves this summer.  They’ll be losing some offensive punch with such a move but improved defensive zone play would help negate that.

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