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Archives for July 2021

Poll: How Many Teams Will Make Side Deals At The Expansion Draft?

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Nearly all of NHL offseason talk now is circulating around the Seattle Kraken. With protection lists due from teams just a week from today, and the draft itself coming up on July 21st, teams are pressed for time to make moves to prepare themselves for the draft.

10 different teams – the Buffalo Sabres, Florida Panthers, Carolina Hurricanes, Tampa Bay Lightning, New York Islanders, Anaheim Ducks, Minnesota Wild, Columbus Blue Jackets, Winnipeg Jets, and Pittsburgh Penguins – made side deals with the Vegas Golden Knights back in 2017. While most of the trades were teams handing Vegas draft picks in order to ensure a specific player was selected, some notable players were included in these trades, especially Reilly Smith and Shea Theodore.

We’re already aware of one team that will join this list in 2021 – the Nashville Predators. After dealing Viktor Arvidsson to the Los Angeles Kings, a move many assumed was to clarify Nashville’s protection situation, Preds general manager David Poile mentioned that he’s hoping to make a similar deal with Seattle to make sure they select a certain player. And while he’s the only one that’s said something outright, there are other obvious candidates for side deals. The Lightning could make a second side deal, perhaps of more significance this year, as they look to deal some big contracts in order to remain cap-compliant into next season. There’s also a team like the New York Islanders or Pittsburgh Penguins that could stand to get a contract off their hands as well.

So we ask you, the PHR readers, to predict the future. How many side deals do you think will happen at the expansion draft next week? Do you think that teams have learned from ill-advised moves in the past, or will desperation strike in a flat salary cap world?

How many side deals will there be at this month's expansion draft?
6-10 48.36% (990 votes)
1-5 36.10% (739 votes)
More than 10 15.53% (318 votes)
Total Votes: 2,047

Mobile users, click here to vote!

Snapshots: Canadiens, Granlund, Jones

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Off-season chatter around the NHL has been heating up in recent days. The league and its fans are operating on a tight schedule, with the protection lists for the Seattle expansion draft due just a week from today. Teams all over the league are looking to shift their roster makeup under a flat salary cap, posing decisions on player prioritization. Along those lines, The Fourth Period reports that the Montreal Canadiens are likely to focus on re-signing their pending free agents before dipping their toes into the market. That’s especially interesting coming on the heels of winger Corey Perry saying that he’s got more hockey left in the tank. Re-signing him seems rather inevitable at this point. With this rumor, it’s also reasonable to speculate that Montreal will do whatever they can to make deals work for Phillip Danault and Joel Armia, the former of which will demand a serious investment from Habs management.

  • As the Vancouver Canucks look to return to playoff contention, The Athletic’s Harman Dayal lists Mikael Granlund as an option for a third-line center in British Columbia. It might be a logical fit, considering Vancouver’s need a more offensively-inclined piece to revitalize their depth in the bottom-six. Granlund could also be swayed by the opinion of his younger brother, Markus Granlund, who played 215 games over four seasons for the Canucks organization. Having Granlund serve as an impact player against lesser competition could help him improve on his point totals and return to his 40-plus-point seasons of years past.
  • The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta reports that the Columbus Blue Jackets are getting some assistance surrounding a Seth Jones trade. According to the source, Jones’ agent is doing double duty and speaking with other teams directly in order to help expedite the process of a trade. Dealing Jones before the July 17th protection list deadline could prove advantageous to Columbus, allowing them to protect depth defender Dean Kukan who’s impressed in a limited role. It would also give Columbus more clarity about their organizational needs ahead of the 2021 NHL Entry Draft, where the team holds three first-round picks.

Free Agent Focus: New York Islanders

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Free agency is now just under a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The Islanders, similar to last season, face an extenuating salary cap crunch that could force some moves.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Anthony Beauvillier – It was a solid season for the 24-year-0ld winger, who’s continuing to progress into a legitimate depth option moving forward. Even with this year’s shortened season, Beauvillier’s now scored at least 15 goals for four straight years, including one of his most complete two-way years in 2020-21. Mostly relied upon for his scoring ability, he’s a good young piece for a team that struggles to have consistent offensive success. While the Islanders would love to commit long-term to Beauvillier, keeping costs down this offseason is paramount. Expect a bridge deal, likely no more than three seasons long, in the $3MM range. It allows Beauvillier to cash in at the end of the deal, and it gives the Isles some necessary breathing room.

D Adam Pelech – Underrated no more is Pelech, who even received a handful of Norris Trophy votes this season. Playing over 21 minutes a night for the second straight year, the low-event, shot-suppressing defenseman forms one of the formidable pairings in the league with Ryan Pulock. New York’s second-best defender, Pelech will need a sharp raise this offseason. Yet again, though, the salary cap will limit how long the Islanders can make an investment. Older than Beauvillier, any deal will carry Pelech into unrestricted free agency. The Isles will sign him to as much term as they can while keeping the cost as low as possible.

Other RFAs: F Michael Dal Colle, F Kieffer Bellows, F Dmytro Timashov, F Otto Koivula, F Anatoly Golyshev, F Bobo Carpenter, G Ilya Sorokin

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Kyle Palmieri – Despite probably the worst regular season of Palmieri’s career, he likely boosted his stock this offseason considerably with his playoff performance. He had nine points in 19 games with many coming at important moments. While there’s always the possibility of Palmieri taking a short-term deal on the cheap to try and win with the Islanders, it’s likely that he’ll receive enough more compensatory offers on the open market that he’ll be playing elsewhere next season. The Isles have younger, cheaper in-house options to replace his offense, including Oliver Wahlstrom and Kieffer Bellows.

F Casey Cizikas – The Isles’ longtime fourth-line center, this offseason could be one where Cizikas and New York part ways. Now 30 years old, Cizikas has played almost 600 NHL games and is an invaluable leader for the Isles. Yet the former 20-goal scorer remains stuck on the depth chart behind Jean-Gabriel Pageau. If Cizikas wants the opportunity to move elsewhere and play increased minutes, this may be his only shot. It’s also perfectly realistic to expect that Cizikas could take an extremely friendly deal to remain with the team. There’s always been an aspect of loyalty there, and that could come into play here.

Other UFAs: F Travis Zajac, F Cole Bardreau, F Joshua Ho-Sang, F Tanner Fritz, D Braydon Coburn, D Andy Greene, G Cory Schneider

Projected Cap Space

The Islanders are in tough this offseason with just $5.8MM to work with and important pieces to re-sign. While that number will surely increase once defenseman Johnny Boychuk’s contract is moved to LTIR, the Islanders still likely won’t have that much room to maneuver with. It’s entirely possible that we see general manager Lou Lamoriello make some unexpected trades in order to boost the team’s talent level without much added cap expense, but only time will tell.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Leafs Notes: Hyman, Bertuzzi, Assistant Coaches

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While this offseason promises intrigue no matter what, the Toronto Maple Leafs are undoubtedly going to bring an added element of excitement for hockey fans over the coming weeks. After a fifth straight first-round playoff loss, general manager Kyle Dubas will be under immense pressure this month to bring in names to help the team perform at a higher level throughout the regular season and playoffs. Many details are starting to emerge about Toronto’s plans for next season and how their roster may look. One thing that’s becoming apparent is that Zach Hyman likely isn’t part of the Maple Leafs’ future, as Elliotte Friedman’s 31 Thoughts column notes that an extension for the forward is unlikely to happen. Hyman’s received interest from both the Edmonton Oilers and Detroit Red Wings, both teams who can and likely will offer him more money and term than Toronto is willing to offer. The absence of Hyman leaves a hole in the team’s top-six forward group that will need to be filled. It appears as though the Leafs already have some ideas about how to approach this:

  • In a Saturday radio hit from Friedman, he mentions that the Leafs are circling back with the Detroit Red Wings about winger Tyler Bertuzzi. Bertuzzi, who missed all but nine games this season with a back injury, carries some financial uncertainty as he’s a pending restricted free agent. With him missing the past season due to injury, however, it’s likely that Bertuzzi only signs a one-year deal whether he’s dealt or not, taking him through his final year of RFA eligibility. It would keep the cost down for the Maple Leafs, who’ll continue to look to add at all positions this offseason.
  • There’s little surprise that after such a disappointing end to the season, Toronto would look to shake up their coaching staff. An unbelievably poor power-play unit left a nasty streak on what was otherwise a successful regular season, prompting potential changes among head coach Sheldon Keefe’s associates. Friedman also reports in 31 Thoughts that the team may bring in former Arizona Coyotes bench boss Rick Tocchet as an assistant. While his time in the desert didn’t yield too much success, Tocchet’s garnered a solid track record as an assistant, especially during his time working with the Pittsburgh Penguins – in which he won back-to-back Stanley Cups. Friedman also mentioned Montreal Canadiens assistant Luke Richardson as a possible hire, but it’s unlikely the team would let him go. Richardson was a large part of Montreal’s playoff run, stepping in as the interim head coach while Dominique Ducharme missed the majority of their series against the Vegas Golden Knights due to COVID protocol.

PHR Mailbag: DeBrusk, Predictions, Vegas Goalies, Buyouts, Parise, Sabres, Panthers, Salary Cap, Kane, Blackhawks, Drouin, Free Agency

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include an underachieving Bruin, some crystal ball predictions, the goalie situation for the Golden Knights, buyout candidates, and much, much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

Puckhead83: You’re Don Sweeney. Are you exposing Jake DeBrusk and taking the cap relief, trading him at his lowest value, or making him your reclamation project?

Can I take none of the above?  If I’m Sweeney, I’m leaning towards buying DeBrusk out and taking the cap relief that way.  The structure of his backloaded contract gives Boston a cap credit of $367K in 2021-22 and a charge of $808K in 2022-23; his buyout is only one-third instead of two-thirds because of his age (24).  His qualifying offer in 2022-23 is $4.85MM and even a decent bounce-back season probably isn’t worthy of a tender so making him the reclamation project doesn’t make sense.

I’d leave him unprotected in expansion but I don’t think Seattle would bite.  Jeremy Lauzon is my preferred target from the Bruins, a young and cheap defenseman with some upside and can already handle himself in the NHL.

As for a trade, what’s better for Boston – roughly $4MM in cap space this summer or taking on a similar underperformer in a trade for DeBrusk?  The UFA market is going to be like last fall; there will be bargains to be had.  If I’m Sweeney, I’m making my bet that a UFA signing will be a better fit than the addition of the prototypical change of scenery swap player that I’d get in a swap.

The Duke: Crystal Ball time: Where will Ekman-Larsson and Kessel end up – and what’s Adin Hill’s future hold? Bonus question: who will be Nashville’s backup goalie – and what is Connor Ingram’s status? Thanks!

Oliver Ekman-Larsson: I think he stays in Arizona.  The Coyotes aren’t a team that’s going to want to carry a lot of dead money on the books and with the cap environment being what it is and the year he had, no one is taking on the six years and $8.25MM AAV outright.  There’s a new coach in Andre Tourigny so why not see if the captain can turn things around over selling low and paying him a good chunk of money not to play for them?

Phil Kessel: They’ve already paid most of his contract for next season in the form of a signing bonus and only owe him $800K with Toronto covering the other $200K.  This a budget-conscious team so while I know his name is out there, I don’t think they’re in much of a hurry to move his contract.  If they’re out of it at the deadline, he’ll move then but I think he stays with the Coyotes.

Hill: He should be in the NHL next season, either as Darcy Kuemper’s backup or picked by Seattle in expansion.  Hill has two years before reaching UFA eligibility so he is going to have to establish himself as a legitimate backup between now and then.  He should get that chance starting next year though.

Ingram: Ingram did return to Nashville’s farm team late in the season and still has two years left on his contract with the final year being a one-way pact.  He’s now waiver-eligible and is one of the more intriguing netminders in that situation.  This year was a write-off with everything that happened which could push him out of the mix to be the Predators’ backup but in 2019-20, he was nothing short of dominant.  Is there a team that is willing to give him a chance based on that?  I’m quite interested in seeing how that plays out in the fall.

DirtbagBlues: Can Vegas really afford to keep this goalie tandem? There seems to be no interest in moving either of them, but they could badly use the cap space. Not that this helps them with the cap, but if Vegas doesn’t trade an NHL goalie, could Logan Thompson be moved for a young skater?

They can afford to if they want.  They have probably three or four roster spots to fill (two forwards plus one or two defensemen) and roughly $6MM in cap space.  Go cheap on those slots and there is room to keep both Marc-Andre Fleury and Robin Lehner.  However, they’d be parting ways with Alec Martinez, Mattias Janmark, and potentially Tomas Nosek in the process and taking a step backwards so the question becomes is keeping both the right move to make?

Last year, the asking price to take on Fleury’s deal was high but things have changed since then.  He’s now the reigning Vezina winner which helps his value.  He also now has just one year left on his contract which also helps his value.  With so many other goalies available in free agency, Vegas couldn’t command a significant return but they shouldn’t have to pay to get out of it either.  Meanwhile, with Fleury being 36, they can’t really move Lehner who is the goalie of the near future.  They can make keeping both of them work but there is a definite opportunity cost in doing so.

As for moving Thompson, sure, he could be swapped for a young skater but it would be of the fringe variety.  He has one very good AHL season under his belt but that alone doesn’t give him much trade value.  They’re not going to get someone that could step into the bottom six up front or the third pairing defensively for someone with that small of a track record.  I’d hold onto him and if he has another strong year in Henderson, he’s a cost-effective backup to Lehner in 2022-23.

wreckage: Who is the most likely buyout candidate?

Anthony DeAngelo of the Rangers is the most obvious one.  They’re not going to pay him $5.3MM in salary to sit at home for another year when a buyout cap charge would be less than $1.2MM spread out over two seasons.  Teams aren’t going to trade for him at that salary so that one is pretty much a lock.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Jake Virtanen is in a similar situation.  The off-ice situation is still in play and his play on the ice (five goals and zero assists in 38 games) doesn’t warrant the contract he has.  It’s another one-third buyout with just a $50K cap charge next season and $500K the year after that.  Vancouver can do better with that money.

In terms of veterans, Edmonton’s Mikko Koskinen also seems quite likely.  There is now only one year left on his deal at $4.5MM and that’s way too much money for a backup goalie that can’t be relied on.  Even with a $1.5MM buyout charge for two years, I suspect GM Ken Holland can find a better fit between the pipes for the net $3MM savings for next season.  With some uncertainty with a long-term starting option, they can’t afford to carry more uncertainty at the backup spot either.

I expect a few more buyouts than these but it would be surprising if any of these three aren’t hitting the open market later this month.

@DJ23420117: What are the Wild going to do about Parise? Buyout? Trade w/Kraken? Keep him and make nice?

There is no good answer in this situation.  Let’s get that out of the way first.  The buyout cost – one that would give them some room next season before jumping to $6.3MM, $7.3MM, and $7.3MM – accomplishes next to nothing.  With his AAV being $7.538MM, they can’t even replace him without incurring a higher cap hit than had they just kept him.  In that situation, keeping him makes sense although he’s clearly unhappy with the situation.

A trade with Seattle is nice in theory but what would it cost to get them to take the contract on?  With the market being what it is, we’re probably looking at multiple first-round picks or comparable assets while also locking in the potential for salary cap recapture if he decides to retire early.

Honestly, I think they may be better off just keeping him; I don’t know about the make nice part though.  No one is happy in this scenario either but I wouldn’t want to give up so many future pieces to move him or create a bunch of dead cap space that winds up costing them more money to fill his spot in some of those years than it would be to keep him.  There’s no desirable answer here so for Parise, it’ll be a matter of choosing the least undesirable solution.

Y2KAK: Any chance Buffalo doesn’t go Owen Power?

Nothing is ever 100% certain but the odds they don’t go with Power would be low.  I doubt they’re concerned with him leaning towards staying in college for another year; that wouldn’t scare them off from picking him.  Big, top pairing defenders don’t become available very often and passing on one wouldn’t make much sense.

About the only scenario where I could maybe see them not taking him is if they traded Jack Eichel for a package that really shored up their defense with multiple long-term pieces to the point where they then look at someone like Matthew Beniers to replace Eichel up the middle.  But even that isn’t a very realistic scenario.  I’d be really surprised if Power isn’t a Sabre later this month.

Red Wings: What would it take for the Panthers to get rid of Bobrovsky? Or more realistically Yandle?

To move Sergei Bobrovsky, it would take eating a significant chunk of his $10MM cap hit for the next five seasons.  That’s a lot of money to pay someone not to play for them and as a budget-conscious team, it’s an even bigger hit.  From there, they’d have to take on a deal with at least three years left at a similar price tag as the non-retained portion on Bobrovsky.  Is that worth doing for Florida?  Probably not at this stage.  I’m not expecting him to rebound significantly next season but a small improvement could get him closer to league average.  That, coupled with one less year on his contract a year from now, might make it slightly less difficult to move him.

You’re correct that Keith Yandle is the more realistic trade option.  With only two years left and a $6.35MM cap hit, that’s a lot less of a hit to take on than Bobrovsky.  Yandle can also still contribute offensively although his struggles in his own end are what ultimately led to him being scratched in the playoffs.  The formula to a trade is similar to Bobrovsky – retain a sizable percentage and take a player back making the difference between Yandle’s AAV and the retained portion, creating a cap-neutral trade which will be a key to many moves this summer.  They’ll be losing some offensive punch with such a move but improved defensive zone play would help negate that.

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Snapshots: Sharks, Killorn, Neal, Chiasson

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With the pre-expansion trade freeze now just a week away, trade talk will be picking up around the league.  Kevin Kurz of The Athletic notes (subscription link) that the Sharks are a team that is active in those discussions with winger Kevin Labanc, defenseman Radim Simek, and center Dylan Gambrell at the forefront of those discussions.  Labanc underwhelmed in the first season of a four-year, $18.9MM deal with 12 goals in 55 games, Simek is on the expensive side for a third-pairing defenseman with a $2.25MM price tag, while Gambrell, a pending RFA, didn’t produce much this season – just 12 points in 49 games despite averaging over 16 minutes a game.  Kurz adds that San Jose’s preference is to make a player for player swap; speculatively speaking, any deal involving the first two players would be seeking to bring in a cheaper replacement to give them some more financial flexibility.

Elsewhere around the league:

  • Lightning winger Alex Killorn should be fully recovered for training camp, relays Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times. The veteran fractured his fibula blocking a point shot in the opening game of the Stanley Cup Final and has already undergone surgery.  While he was hoping to get back into the lineup later in the series had it gone that far, the recovery time for this injury is closer to three to four weeks.
  • After Edmonton was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, Oilers GM Ken Holland strongly suggested a buyout or two was in the cards for his roster. However, his agent Kent Morris told Postmedia’s Jim Matheson that he hasn’t received a notification from the team yet about veteran winger James Neal heading down that path.  A buyout of the final two years remaining on the contract for the 33-year-old is likely with Neal notching just five goals and five assists in 29 games this season but such a move may not come until after expansion.
  • Morris also spoke about another Oilers client, telling Matheson in that same column that pending UFA winger Alex Chiasson would like to stay and that the team hasn’t yet shut a door on his return. Having said that, it seems likely that they’ll look at their options in free agency before potentially circling back to the 30-year-old who has managed just 20 goals over the last two seasons combined after scoring 22 times in his first season with the team.

Expansion Primer: Carolina Hurricanes

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Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Back in 2017, the Hurricanes got off pretty easily in expansion as the Golden Knights selected Connor Brickley while accepting a fifth-round pick to stay away from other options.  Brickley was a pending UFA and never signed with Vegas, ultimately going to Florida instead.  Only losing a fifth-rounder is better than most teams fared back then but they’re unlikely to be similarly unaffected this time around.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Sebastian Aho, Jesper Fast, Warren Foegele, Morgan Geekie, Steven Lorentz, Spencer Smallman, Nino Niederreiter, Jordan Staal (NMC), Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen, Vincent Trocheck

Defense:
Jake Bean, Jake Gardiner, Eric Gelinas, Maxime Lajoie, Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei, Jaccob Slavin

Goalies:
Jeremy Helvig, Alex Nedeljkovic

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

D Jani Hakanpaa, D Dougie Hamilton, F Jordan Martinook, F Max McCormick, F Brock McGinn, G Petr Mrazek, F Cedric Paquette, G James Reimer

Notable Exemptions

F Dominik Bokk, F Seth Jarvis, D Joey Keane, F Martin Necas, F Ryan Suzuki

Key Decisions

There isn’t much to decide between the pipes.  Even if Carolina is considering non-tendering Nedeljkovic to avoid the potential for arbitration, he’s still the logical one to protect.  Even if they wanted to leave him unprotected and protect Helvig for some illogical reason, they’d have to first tender him his qualifier which takes away the option to avoid arbitration.  This one is easy.

It isn’t anywhere near as easy on defense.  Sure, Slavin and Pesce are the obvious selections but it gets a lot tougher from there.

Skjei is a capable top-four defender and while his production has dried up since coming over in a trade from the Rangers, he’s still logging over 20 minutes a night and playing a significant role on their penalty kill.  He has three years left on his deal at a $5.25MM price tag.  That might be a little above market value considering the drop-off in points but if it is an overpayment, it’s not by much.  And at 27, he’s in the prime of his career.  Carolina is also less than a year and a half removed from trading a first-round pick to get Skjei so letting him go for nothing to Seattle would certainly sting.  The Kraken need to pick up some notable contracts in their draft and Skjei would become an immediate fixture for them defensively if he was to be made available.

So why isn’t he the obvious choice?  That would be the presence of Bean on the eligible list.  The 23-year-old was a first-rounder himself back in 2016 and finally was able to establish himself as a regular this season despite being involved in 50 taxi squad transactions throughout the season; that number isn’t an exaggeration but the moves gave Carolina some salary savings.  Is he ready for a top-four spot in the lineup?  If so, he could be protected over Skjei and likely move into Skjei’s spot on the depth chart.

Hamilton also has to be considered here.  He has been given permission to talk to other teams early which is a sign the two sides are far apart in contract talks but if Hamilton doesn’t get the deal he wants, he could circle back.  If Carolina was able to sign him in the next week, he would then get the final spot.  Meanwhile, Gardiner is a safe bet to be left protected after struggling in his first two seasons with the Hurricanes.

Up front, most of the spots are easily spoken for.  Aho, Svechnikov, Teravainen, and Trocheck are all locks.  Staal has a no-move clause which secures his spot as well.  Niederreiter has been up and down since joining the Hurricanes and has a high enough contract ($5.25MM) that he could be left exposed but he was second on the team in goals this year; that’d be hard to part with so let’s put him on there as well.  That’s six of the seven spots right there and enough sure-fire protectees to take away the eight-skater option which would allow them to keep both defensemen.

At first glance, Foegele would seem like the logical candidate.  He has been a capable middle-six forward and has been productive in a limited role, notching at least ten goals in three straight years.  However, he’s also arbitration-eligible and if they’re worried about Nedeljkovic’s arbitration eligibility, they could be concerned with Foegele’s as well.  If they are, there’s no point protecting him if they’re considering non-tendering him.

Fast signed a pretty cheap deal in the fall, a contract that has two years left on it at a respectable $2MM.  However, his numbers took a bit of a dip this season in more of a limited role than he was accustomed to with the Rangers.  It’s still a good value deal but losing someone that’s on the third line with some frequency wouldn’t be a bad outcome for the Hurricanes.

Geekie is still largely unproven in the NHL with 36 of his 38 career regular season games coming this season.  Most of that time was spent on the fourth line.  However, he’s going to be cheaper than the other options and plays the premium position as he’s a center.  So too does Lorentz but Geekie is a little younger which probably leaves Lorentz exposed.

Projected Protection List

F Sebastian Aho
F Morgan Geekie
F Nino Niederreiter
F Jordan Staal (NMC)
F Andrei Svechnikov
F Teuvo Teravainen
F Vincent Trocheck

D Brett Pesce
D Jaccob Slavin
D Brady Skjei

G Alex Nedeljkovic

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019-20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Jesper Fast, Steven Lorentz
Defensemen (1): Jake Gardiner

Carolina is able to meet the requirements with the above players but it’s the restricted free agents in Bean and Foegele that will be the most attractive to Seattle.  Kraken GM Ron Francis is quite familiar with both players having drafted when he was GM of the Hurricanes.  Both are young – Foegele has two years of team control left and Bean four – which means Seattle will be getting a longer-term piece.  Bean would likely be the favorite to be selected but either way, they’re going to get hit harder this time than they were by Vegas and a fifth-round pick alone wouldn’t be able to protect everyone this time around.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Flames Begin Extension Talks With Johnny Gaudreau

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With Calgary having another disappointing season, there is an expectation of change coming for the Flames.  One of the players speculated to be in play is winger Johnny Gaudreau but Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported in his latest 31 Thoughts column that extension talks have gotten underway with the 27-year-old who is set to become an unrestricted free agent next summer without a new deal in place.

It has been a quiet couple of seasons for Gaudreau.  Back in 2018-19, he put up 99 points, his second straight year of averaging over a point per game.  There was a significant drop-off in 2019-20 to 58 points (with only losing a dozen games to the pandemic-shortened campaign) and there wasn’t much of a rebound this season; his 49 points in 56 games yielded slightly better per-game numbers but still nowhere near what they were just two years ago.  That performance is what put him at the forefront of trade speculation but Gaudreau has indicated in the past that he’d like to remain with Calgary.

There are two contractual elements to consider for Gaudreau.  The first is that he has considerable trade protection that is going to kick in once the new calendar year begins on July 28th (which is also the earliest day an extension could be signed).  Right now, he doesn’t have the ability to block a trade to any team.  Come the 28th, that changes to just five teams that he’s allowed to be traded to without his consent.  If there is any consideration being given to trading him if a new deal can’t be reached, it stands to reason that the 28th serves as a soft deadline for that to happen as moving him gets much tougher afterwards.

The second is the price tag.  At $6.75MM, Gaudreau will likely be looking for an increase to forego a shot at free agency.  He was the benchmark contract for Calgary forwards before Matthew Tkachuk got $7MM on his bridge deal and it’s likely that Gaudreau will be seeking a bit more than that considering he has outperformed Tkachuk in terms of production for most of their careers.  But with the drop off in scoring the last couple of seasons, is that something that Calgary GM Brad Treliving will be willing to do?  If this isn’t a blip but rather a sign of things to come, that type of financial commitment to someone whose numbers are declining isn’t really justifiable either.

It’s hard to see Calgary bringing back the same core as it has struggled in recent years, not making it out of the first round in the last six years.  Accordingly, a key piece or two will probably be on the move.  Knowing the trade protection that is on the horizon, if the Flames and Gaudreau can’t work out a new deal in the coming weeks, expect the trade speculation to quickly intensify.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Metropolitan Notes: Nedeljkovic, Oshie, DeAngelo

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It was quite the season for Hurricanes goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic.  He cleared waivers to start the year and was expected to serve as their taxi squad netminder but an early injury to Petr Mrazek gave him an opportunity to play and he seized it, posting a league-best 1.90 GAA and a .932 SV% in 23 starts and was similarly stingy in the playoffs.  Despite that, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman notes in his latest 31 Thoughts column that Carolina appears to be giving some consideration to not tendering Nedeljkovic a qualifying offer.  It’s not that they don’t want to keep him but rather that they’re worried about what an arbitration award would be.

With just 29 career regular season appearances, there are few close comparables for Nedeljkovic although Jordan Binnington of St. Louis could be one with the similarities in career trajectories.  He signed a two-year deal after his only full NHL campaign with an AAV of $4.4MM.  That’s below the walkaway threshold of $4.538MM per PuckPedia (Twitter link) which could give them some pause.  If the Hurricanes go that route, it doesn’t guarantee he’d leave but Nedeljkovic would certainly be an intriguing late addition to the UFA market.

More from the Metropolitan Division:

  • Capitals winger T.J. Oshie has not been given any indication from the team that he will be left unprotected in the expansion draft, relays J.J. Regan of NBC Sports Washington. Oshie has long been a speculative target for Seattle although with the year he had offensively – 43 points in 53 games – he’d undoubtedly be a big loss for Washington.  While Oshie doesn’t have a no-move clause and thus doesn’t need to be notified in advance if he was being exposed, Regan suggests this could mean that the Caps intend to have the 34-year-old on their protected list when it’s submitted a week from today.
  • While the Rangers could wait until after the expansion draft to finalize a buyout of Anthony DeAngelo in the hopes of working out a deal for Seattle to take him (a route that most teams are expected to take with their buyout candidates), Mollie Walker of the New York Post reports that this won’t be the case. Instead, the team is expected to make that move official in the coming days as the window to do so is now open.  As only one-third of the remaining salary is owed, New York will carry a dead cap charge of $383K next year and $883K in 2022-23.

Offseason Checklist: Winnipeg Jets

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The offseason is in full flight with the draft and free agency fast approaching.  We continue our series which examines what those eliminated teams need to accomplish over the coming weeks and months.  Next up is a look at Winnipeg.

This past season was an up and down one for Winnipeg.  At times, they were good enough to contend for the top spot in the North Division and others where they struggled considerably.  Things followed a similar pattern in the playoffs as they swept Edmonton before being swept by Montreal.  GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has one of the cleaner cap situations in the league at his disposal this summer, giving him an opportunity to reshape his roster.  One priority stands out amongst the rest, however.

Add Impact Defensive Help

Let’s not bother with delaying the obvious.  The back end has been an issue for the last two years after Winnipeg lost Jacob Trouba (trade), Tyler Myers and Ben Chiarot (free agency), and Dustin Byfuglien (injury and eventual contract termination).  They have two proven players in Josh Morrissey and Neal Pionk (part of the return for Trouba) but the depth takes a hit from there.  Dylan DeMelo is a capable third pairing player, Nathan Beaulieu is serviceable depth, and Logan Stanley and Ville Heinola have some upside but are unproven.

As they’ve found out, that combination isn’t the makings of a top-level defense or even a league-average one.  Cheveldayoff has made moves to try to raise the floor and add depth in the past two seasons since then with the pickup and re-signing of DeMelo last season, the signing of Derek Forbort (a pending UFA again this summer), and the trade deadline add of Jordie Benn this year but that isn’t going to drastically change their fortunes.  Frankly, the Jets could benefit from trying to do that again this summer but that alone can’t the only upgrades made.

At least one top-four defender needs to be added to the mix.  That would take some pressure off Morrissey and Pionk while also allowing Stanley and Heinola to continue to be eased in.  Unfortunately, there aren’t a lot of impact blueliners available in free agency; you can probably count the number of top-four defenders on one hand.  But with only $61MM in commitments for next season, they’ll have the ability to be a high bidder on those players if they want to go that way.  Otherwise, it’ll have to come by a trade.

After failing to land an impact rearguard last summer, Cheveldayoff simply cannot strike out on that front again if he intends to see Winnipeg take a step forward next season.

Re-Sign RFAs

The Jets don’t have many restricted free agents to contend with this summer but they have two notable ones that will need to be addressed fairly quickly as both are eligible for salary arbitration.

The biggest one is Pionk.  He really took off following the trade from the Rangers and got better when pressed into a bigger role.  Going back to his USHL and college days, there has always been some offensive upside for Pionk and he has shown that since joining the Jets, collecting 77 points in 125 games.  The timing couldn’t have been better as he now becomes eligible for a hearing for the first time.  With two years away from UFA eligibility, the time has come for a long-term contract.  Considering how much they’ve lost from their back end in recent years and how important Pionk has become, it’s likely that Cheveldayoff will push for a deal that buys out several UFA years.  That could push his price tag close to double the $3MM AAV on his bridge contract but it’d be a price well worth paying to give them some stability.

The other is Andrew Copp who is basically Winnipeg’s Swiss army knife.  He can play in a checking role and has shown that for several years.  He has been called upon to play higher in the lineup at times as well and responded to that request by setting new career highs offensively across the board despite the pandemic-shortened season.  He’s a natural center but spent a lot of time in 2020-21 on the wing.  Role and positional flexibility is an ideal combination to have combined with the uptick in offense.  He’s well-positioned to earn well over his $2.3MM qualifying offer and since he’s only a year from UFA eligibility, Copp could simply elect arbitration and go to a hearing which is what he did last time.  They locked up Adam Lowry before the deadline on a long-term deal and will try to do the same with his linemate now.

Rebuild The Bottom Six

Winnipeg’s top five forwards are all either signed or under team control for at least the next three years so they’re pretty well set there although Paul Stastny will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the month.  However, they have a trio of bottom-six forwards that are set to hit the open market in Mathieu Perreault, Nate Thompson, and Trevor Lewis.  The latter two were added last summer to add some grit and penalty killing acumen but Perreault has been a versatile piece for the Jets for the last seven years.

This is another opportunity for Cheveldayoff to shore up the bottom of his roster.  Kristian Vesalainen and David Gustafsson are internal candidates for a regular role and with both on entry-level contracts, they’d be cheap enough for Winnipeg to afford to take a run at another top-six piece and strengthen their attack.  Alternatively, if they opt to replace all of those players with free agents, they’ll again benefit from the flat salary cap and an environment where teams will be trying to go cheaper with role players; they’ll be well-positioned to bid a bit higher on each one which should give them a leg up in those discussions.

Fill The Backup Goalie Spot

The decision to bring back Laurent Brossoit for this season was a little curious considering how much the 28-year-old struggled in 2019-20 but Winnipeg’s faith in him was rewarded as he bounced back with a 2.42 GAA and a .918 SV% this season, numbers that were actually slightly better than Connor Hellebuyck’s.  That could have Brossoit primed for a bigger deal in free agency, a pricier one than they may want to pay.

With Hellebuyck in the fold for three more years and a proven ability to log a lot of minutes, the Jets can afford to shop on the less expensive side of free agency, freeing up some extra cap flexibility elsewhere.  Brossoit made $1.5MM this season and that’s likely the price range that Cheveldayoff will want to keep his second netminder.  If Brossoit isn’t open to that deal this time around, there will be a change made between the pipes this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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