PHR Originals: 1/9/2017-1/15/2017
It’s been an interesting week in the NHL, and here at PHR we’ve had some excellent original features:
- Nate Brown took at look at the top five picks from last summer, and how they’ve fared so far in their young careers. With Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine off to huge starts in the NHL (though Laine is now facing a concussion), it’s an interesting look at players like Pierre-Luc Dubois and Olli Juolevi, both of whom stayed with their junior clubs this year.
- I took a look at the shootout, and where teams would be if it was eliminated. Though teams would leapfrog each other if those points were taken away, it sure would close up some gaps.
- Brian La Rose released our annual mid-season UFA power rankings, in two parts (here and here). Based on votes from all of the writers at PHR, Kevin Shattenkirk took home the trophy of the #1 UFA. The rest of them are very interesting though, with writers ranking the field quite differently.
- Brian also continued his series re-drafting the 2005 class. This time it was the 28th overall selection, which Devin Setoguchi handily won.
- Brett Barrett took a look at the biggest one-for-one trades in the past decade. Inspired by the Taylor Hall–Adam Larsson/P.K. Subban–Shea Weber monster day we experienced last summer, some of the swaps have been the epitome of “blockbuster deal”
- And just a few hours ago I looked at Philadelphia’s struggles heading into their mandated bye week. The team lost 5-0 today to the Washington Capitals and are at risk of falling out of a playoff spot this week.
What’s Next For The Philadelphia Flyers?
On December 15th, exactly one month ago, the Philadelphia Flyers woke up on a ten-game winning streak and safely headed for the playoffs. All the talk around the league was how both Eastern Conference wildcard spots had already been locked up, the Metropolitan division having five teams that were guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.
Now, on January 15th as they lose 5-0 at the hands of the Washington Capitals, the story is very different. Since that 10th win in a row on December 14th, the Flyers have gone 3-8-3 and find themselves in real trouble of falling out of the wildcard spot. Carolina, Ottawa, Toronto and Florida are all within two points of the Flyers, with everyone having games in hand (the Leafs and Senators have 5 each).
As the Flyers head into their mandated bye-week – the team won’t play until next Saturday – they must find an answer to their recent problems. The question for this team isn’t up front, as they have scored 132 goals, good for 5th in the conference. It’s the back end that has so many question marks.
Their goaltending tandem of Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth that started so well have both taken huge steps backwards, highlighted by the four goals in five minutes allowed by Mason today against the Capitals before he was pulled from the net. Both netminders have a save percentage under .900, which is unacceptable in the NHL.
On defense, the team scratched last year’s rookie of the year candidate Shayne Gostisbehere yesterday for the second time this year, upset with his play in his own end. While that might be a development tactic, other blueliners like Andrew MacDonald and Michael Del Zotto haven’t played well enough for the team this year either.
The team has some excellent young players; Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny are both playing well as rookies, but disappear periodically (as rookies tend to do) and are still an unknown as the season stretches out.
If the front office believes this team could compete in the playoffs should they make a move or two, expect it to come on the back end and in net. With Mark Streit, Del Zotto and Nick Schultz all unrestricted free agents this summer, the team could also decide to sell off some expiring assets and give younger players more freedom.
In goal, acquiring a real NHL netminder is paramount, except it leaves the problem of Anthony Stolarz. The young netminder is almost ready to make an impact at the NHL level, and is exposed at the upcoming expansion draft. If the team were to acquire a goalie to help long term, they’d be at risk of losing him or Stolarz. This, by the way already may happen – the team currently must leave Stolarz exposed as he’s the only netminder under contract past this year.
It will be an interesting week for the Flyers front office, who need to start making decisions on this roster now. If they go another few games without turning this ship around, it might be too late. For now, they’ll crawl home and lick their wounds, hoping the unofficial second half brings more fruitful rewards.
Bruins Notes: Marchand, Miller, Miller
In his 500th NHL game yesterday, Brad Marchand celebrated in style. The pesky 28-year old scored five points (2G, 3A) and continued proving he’s one of the NHLs brightest stars. After setting a career high in goals (37) and points (60) last season, Marchand is on pace to shatter his assist high this year while setting the point mark once again. His 43 points in 46 games rank among the top 10 in the NHL and leads the Bruins by 10.
Remember, Marchand was a third-round pick for the Bruins in 2006 and was thought of as an under-sized bottom six-type player. Instead, he’s turned into one of the most consistent goal scorers in the NHL, racking up at least 20 in every season except the lockout-shortened 2012-13, when he scored 18. With 17 this year and no signs of slowing down, he may post back-to-back 30+ goal seasons and prove that he should eventually be talked about as a Hart trophy candidate.
- In all the fun that was Marchand’s 500th came some bad news, as Kevan Miller was knocked out by Jakub Voracek during the second period. The defenseman has suffered a concussion and is “in the protocol” according to head coach Claude Julien. In Joe Haggerty’s latest column for CSNNE, he reports that Miller was absent from practice today and will be out indefinitely. Voracek did not receive any supplementary discipline from the league for the hit.
- The Bruins will be without either Miller, as Colin Miller was also missing from today’s practice due to the lower-body injury that he’s been dealing with. Haggerty reports that Miller did skate on his own before practice however, meaning his return may be on the horizon. Julien seemed unaffected by the news of both Millers, saying “we’ve got some depth at that position. We still have enough guys up here to get through, and hopefully we’ll get some guys back sooner rather than later.” Joe Morrow will likely figure back into the lineup in their absence.
East Notes: Sparks, Shaw, Hrivik
The Toronto Maple Leafs have sent emergency call-up Garret Sparks back to the minors, according to James Mirtle of The Athletic. The team brought him up as insurance yesterday when it seemed like Curtis McElhinney might not be able to play. The former Blue Jackets goalie did play however, and played quite well in the Leafs’ 4-2 victory over the Ottawa Senators. The Maple Leafs have now gone 8-1-1 in their last 10 and vaulted themselves into a playoff spot in the Atlantic division. They’re ahead of the Senators on the tiebreaker, and have played five less games than their next target, the Boston Bruins.
McElhinney seemed to debut quite admirably in the Maple Leafs net, that has had trouble finding a backup goaltender this season. Young phenom Auston Matthews gave all the credit post-game to McElhinney, saying that he kept them in it with some huge saves.
- Andrew Shaw was ejected from last night’s Montreal Canadiens-New York Rangers game after a brutal hit on Jesper Fast. While fans around the game agreed it was both late and should be considered head-hunting, Shaw disagrees. Amanda Stein of TSN caught up with the Habs forward today and got his take on it. Shaw told her he disagrees with the decision to throw him out, and hasn’t received a call from NHL Player Safety about it. He apparently did his best for it to be shoulder-to-shoulder, but did admit it was “maybe half a second late”. We’ll hear later today if there is any supplemental discipline for Shaw, who only returned to the Montreal lineup last night.
- After the New York Rangers placed Marek Hrivik on waivers earlier today, Steve Zipay of Newsday says it’ll be the end for him in New York for the time being. He’ll be headed back to Hartford to make room for the “imminent return” of Mike Zibanejad. Zipay also mentions the need for a backup goaltender on Tuesday, as Antti Raanta is out with an injury.
How Are The 2016 Draft Picks Doing? Picks #1-5
Now more than ever, the NHL is a draft and develop league. While trades and key free agent signings are still an important part of the game, gone are the days where core players could be obtained for a few draft picks and low level prospects. The key to building a solid franchise foundation is drafting well. If gifted with a top five pick, the pressure in the salary cap era is even more stifling.
With the 2017 NHL Draft just over six months away, it’s always interesting to see how the 2016 picks are doing following their selections. Some like Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine, really need no introduction. The contributions to their respective teams have been significant, and talked about during the first half of the season. Here are the top five picks in order, and what they’ve been up to since being drafted last June.
#1 overall pick: Auston Matthews
What else is there to say? The Toronto Maple Leafs picked the Arizona native and they haven’t been disappointed. Nearly a point-per-game player, Matthews has 36 points (21-15) in 40 games and despite a goal scoring drought a few months back, Matthews has hit his stride. A knack to score big goals and showing a strong two-way game as well, Matthews is the backbone of a Toronto rebuilding project that includes a lot of exciting young players. The future is looking very bright in hockey’s mecca.
#2 overall pick: Patrik Laine
The Winnipeg Jets knew they were getting a good player in Laine, but just how good wasn’t revealed until the regular season began. Laine has netted two hat tricks this season and until Matthews heated up, there was significant discussion that Laine could be the choice for the Calder Trophy for league’s best rookie. Though a concussion sidelined him, Laine was also nearly a point-per-game player with 37 points (21-16) in 42 games. He still leads all rookies in goals and points.
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Central Moves: Nemeth, Schmaltz
With Jamie Oleksiak expected to miss 3-6 weeks after suffering a hand injury on Tuesday, the Dallas Stars have recalled Patrik Nemeth from his conditioning stint. The defenseman played four games for the Texas Stars, scoring three points.
Nemeth was recently listed as the most likely Stars player to be traded by Mike Heika’s mailbag. The 24-year old has somehow only played 84 games in the NHL in his career, despite being with the team for long stretches. Remember he was the player who lost almost an entire season to a deep laceration in 2014.
It’s still not clear if he will be inserted into the lineup on a regular basis, as Stephen Johns took Oleksiak’s place immediately. The 24-year old Johns may be more valuable in the spot since he is one of two right handed defensemen on the roster (John Klingberg being the other).
In Chicago, the team has decided to call up Nick Schmaltz as insurance for Artem Anisimov‘s illness. The team is carrying only 12 forwards, and if Anisimov couldn’t go would have had to dress seven blueliners.
Schmaltz was signed out of the University of North Dakota this spring after two very successful seasons. The 20th overall pick in the 2014 draft, Schmaltz has played 26 games for the NHL club this season. Just 20-years old, Schmaltz has shown he may be a little raw for the league but has a huge ceiling.
Number Crunching: Shootouts
The shootout is a subject of much debate in the hockey world. For some, a short skills competition at the end of the game is a fine way to decide who earns the extra point. For others, another few minutes of the new 3-on-3 would be a dream. For other still, ties were never an issue, and they’d be fine with their inclusion once again.
Whichever side of the argument you find yourself, the simple fact is that they are in the NHL right now. Every team has to compete in them throughout the season for those all important extra points. This season only Dallas has yet to be involved in a shootout, while Philadelphia leads the way with nine games ending in one.
The old adage of “it all evens out in the end” almost proves true, as if you were to remove the shootout and just award both teams with a single point if the game was tied after overtime, not a single team would leapfrog another in the standings. It would, however, bring some teams into a tie (points-wise).
The Maple Leafs, with their awful 1-5 record would be tied with their rival Ottawa Senators, instead of chasing them by two points. They would also pull ahead of the Panthers, a team they’re tied with who have played in eight shootouts so far (second most in the league).
Suddenly the Metropolitan would be even tighter, with Washington and Columbus pulling even at the top. Philadelphia would fall into a tie with the Maple Leafs, Senators and Hurricanes for that last wildcard spot however, making things much more interesting.
In the west, where there haven’t been nearly as many shootouts would mostly see the bottom falling out of the standings. Vancouver would drop further back despite their recent run, and Arizona would be in a dog fight with Colorado for the worst team in the NHL; their 4-1 record in shootouts is the best thing about their season thus far.
For individual performances, Thomas Vanek ranks among the best in the league. He’s scored on all three of his attempts this season. Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov and Jakub Voracek all lead with four goals, though it’s taken each of them at least seven attempts. The worst is Nick Cousins, who has failed to score on each of his six attempts, though Kyle Okposo doesn’t fall far behind going 0-5. Despite leading the league in goals, Sidney Crosby is 0-2 this season in the shootout.
For goaltenders, Steve Mason has faced the most shots. He’s stopped 23 of 30 shooters, registering a pretty solid 76.7 save percentage. Braden Holtby has allowed the most, getting scored on an unbelievable 9 out of 14 times. There are six goaltenders who have stopped every shot they’ve faced, though they’ve all faced seven or fewer. Tuukka Rask is the man to beat having stopped 16 of 19 attempts. Robin Lehner is on the other side, allowing all six shooters he’s faced to score.
It’s an interesting thing, the shootout. Even players who have incredible success during the game find it difficult to score, while others who aren’t expected to be offensive forces find the back of the net with ease. For now, the shootout is a part of the game – winning there may be the difference between making or missing the playoffs.
Hawks Notes: Kruger, Roster Spots, Cap Space
The Chicago Blackhawks took to the ice today to practice before their game against the Minnesota Wild tomorrow night. Among the missing skaters was Marcus Kruger, the injured forward who has been out since December 30th. While the original timetable had him set to return in the next week, head coach Joel Quenneville now says it will likely be longer than that.
Kruger suffered an upper-body injury just before the new year, dealing a big blow to the defensive ability of the Hawks forward group. Kruger was an integral part of their penalty kill, and his departure will weaken it even further – it’s currently ranked 28th in the NHL.
- While Kruger remains out due to injury, Artem Anisimov looks like he may miss tomorrow’s game because of an illness. He was absent from practice today and is questionable going forward. The team is currently only carrying 12 healthy forwards at the moment including Anisimov, meaning that if he can’t go the team may dress seven defensemen. The team currently has just 21 of 23 roster spots filled, since putting Kruger on injured reserve at the beginning of the year.
- One of the reasons for this may be the idea that the Blackhawks are “banking” cap space. Brian Hedger of NHL.com says that’s exactly why they haven’t filled the last two spots. When he asked Quenneville, he told him “business reasons”, which does sound line up with Hedger’s thoughts. If he were to hazard a guess as to when the space would be used, it would be right at the trade deadline. The Hawks do have a little bit of room to make a move for another potential Stanley Cup run, and they currently sit in first place in the Central division.
- When Hedger talked to Corey Crawford, who was shelled last night by the Washington Capitals, he told him that he doesn’t “feel the best” after missing time due to an appendectomy. While Crawford points out it might not be because of the layoff, he’s determined to battle through it. The netminder is having another fine season and will be one of four players representing the Blackhawks at the all-star game this year.
Buffalo Sabres Send Bailey, Ullmark To AHL
The Buffalo Sabres announced today that forward Justin Bailey and goaltender Linus Ullmark are headed back to Rochester. The demotions come with rumors of Tyler Ennis‘ return on Monday afternoon, and the improving health of Robin Lehner.
Bailey is having a strong season in the AHL, with 13 goals and 22 points in 33 games, but has not found much with the Sabres. The former second-round pick has found the back of the net just once in his nine games, though they’ve come with very little ice time. The big winger provides a solid physical game to go along with a nose for the net. He’ll likely make his way back up at some point this season.
Ullmark is the Sabres top goalie prospect and has found some middling success in the AHL this season. In 28 games, the former sixth-round pick has a .906 save percentage and a 3.06 goals against average. Those marks are actually both improvements over his minor league numbers from a year ago, though he did fare slightly better in the NHL.
Blue Jackets Add Anton Forsberg On Emergency Conditions
Despite having sent him down just Thursday, the Columbus Blue Jackets have executed an emergency recall of goaltender Anton Forsberg from the AHL. He’ll back up Joonas Korpisalo against the Florida Panthers tonight.
With Sergei Bobrovsky still fighting an illness, the team is without two NHL goaltenders. Curtis McElhinney was lost on waivers this week to the Toronto Maple Leafs, when it seemed that Forsberg had taken over the backup role. In the meantime, Forsberg was sent down to start last night’s game for the Cleveland Monsters (one in which he stopped 24 of 26 saves for a win) but has now returned.
Forsberg and Korpisalo both represent solid goaltending prospects, but with Korpisalo’s younger age and higher draft pedigree it was assumed he would stay in the AHL to start as many games as possbile to continue his development. With Bobrovsky out though, those starts are happening at the NHL level. Last night, he allowed just a single goal 3-1 victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning, continuing the strong play he’s shown in his short NHL stints. Last year, the 22-year old Korpisalo was forced to play in 31 games for the Blue Jackets, putting up an excellent .920 save percentage.
Forsberg on the other hand has gotten into just 10 NHL games in his career, faring rather poorly. While he is still just 24-years old himself and has shown elite ability at the AHL level, is seems he’s rightly fixed behind Korpisalo on the depth chart. He may however stay up when Bobrovsky returns as the team’s full-time backup. Aaron Portzline reports that the team has sent Bobrovsky back to Columbus, where he will likely practice with the team on Monday.