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2007 NHL Draft Take Two: Fifteenth Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.”  Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended.  For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2007 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now.  Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

Here are the results of the redraft so far, with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall: Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks (1)
2nd Overall: Jamie Benn, Philadelphia Flyers (129)
3rd Overall: P.K. Subban, Phoenix Coyotes (43)
4th Overall: Logan Couture, Los Angeles Kings (9)
5th Overall: Max Pacioretty, Washington Capitals (22)
6th Overall: Jakub Voracek, Edmonton Oilers (7)
7th Overall: Ryan McDonagh, Columbus Blue Jackets (12)
8th Overall: James van Riemsdyk, Boston Bruins (2)
9th Overall: Wayne Simmonds, San Jose Sharks (61)
10th Overall: Kevin Shattenkirk, Florida Panthers (14)
11th Overall: Jake Muzzin, Carolina Hurricanes (141)
12th Overall: Kyle Turris, Montreal Canadiens (3)
13th Overall: David Perron, St. Louis Blues (26)
14th Overall: Mikael Backlund, Colorado Avalanche (24)

Narrowly edging out the competition for 14th is Mikael Backlund, who jumps up ten spots from his original draft position with the Calgary Flames. In 2007 he had just been ranked the second best European skater by NHL Central Scouting, but given his three-point draft year output in the Swedish second league there was a level of unfamiliarity with Backlund at the time. For fans in Western Canada that unfamiliarity would quickly disappear. In 2008-09 after starting the year in Sweden, Backlund would attend the World Juniors in Ottawa and dominate en route to a silver medal. He would then play a single game with the Flames before joining the Kelown Rockets of the WHL, where he put up 53 points in 47 games and won a league championship.

Unfortunately through the first few seasons of his NHL career, it appeared as though his offense would never materialize. Recording just 62 points through his first 170 games, Backlund finally broke out in 2013-14 with a strong 18-goal campaign. That offense would continue to pour out of the forward to the point where he is now an integral part of the team’s attack and locked in as their second-line center. In 2018, Calgary signed Backlund to a six-year extension worth a total of $32.1MM, showing just how important they believe him to be.

Even with the slow start, Backlund ranks 13th in points among all players drafted in 2007 (11th among forwards) and seems to be just getting stronger as a two-way option for the Flames. On a list that doesn’t include many players who have spent their whole careers with the team that drafted them, he clearly deserves to be in the top half of the first round.

When the Edmonton Oilers strode to the podium in 2007 with the 15th pick, they should have taken Backlund or any of the other players who have jumped up our board. Instead, with the second of three first round picks (Sam Gagner went sixth overall), they decided to take Alex Plante. Perhaps it was because they held so many picks, but Plante was a reach of immense proportion. The 6’3″ defenseman had been ranked 72nd among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting but a strong playoff with the Calgary Hitmen of the WHL had turned some heads. Unfortunately, things quickly went downhill.

In his first year after being drafted, Plante dealt with injuries and tried to force his way out of the Hitmen organization—a move that would ultimately backfire—while recording just six points in 51 games. Upon turning pro it was obvious that Plante would never be able to contribute offensively, and his footspeed was questioned at every level. He did end up playing in ten games over three years with the Oilers, but parted ways with the organization in 2013 before playing in Austria and South Korea (in fact, he played for South Korea at the Olympics and World Championship in 2018 after getting his citizenship.)

Plante was not the right pick at the time and comes in as the second real bust of the draft so far. If given the chance to do it again, the Oilers would certainly pick someone else.

With the fifteenth pick of the 2007 NHL Entry Draft, who should the Edmonton Oilers select?  Cast your vote below!

[Mobile users click here to vote]

*Tragically, 17th overall pick Alexei Cherepanov died at the age of 19 and would never get a chance to suit up in the NHL.  He has not been included in this vote.

Montreal Canadiens, Max Domi In Extension Talks

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The frozen restricted free agent market this summer likely has some general managers around the league thinking about how to avoid a similar situation in the future. We’ve already seen the Arizona Coyotes and Colorado Avalanche hand out long-term extensions to Clayton Keller and Samuel Girard respectively, and now there may be another name to add to that group. Montreal Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin told Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports that the team has started extension talks with Max Domi, who is entering the final season of his two-year bridge deal signed last summer.

Domi, 24, signed that two-year $6.3MM deal with the Canadiens just a day after the team acquired him from the Coyotes in exchange for Alex Galchenyuk. At the time it was a nice bridge deal for both sides, rewarding a player that had obvious talent but experienced massive inconsistency during his second and third years in the league. In fact, Domi had only scored nine goals in 82 games during the 2017-18 campaign and there were real concerns about his ability to put the puck in the net. Those concerns have completely disappeared after one season in Montreal, as Domi not only scored 28 goals but became the team’s first-line center and most dangerous offensive player.

His 72-point season in Montreal completely changes how the bridge deal looks today, as a $3.15MM cap hit makes Domi one of the most valuable assets in the league—save for those on entry-level deals of course. That also means that he’ll be getting a huge raise on his next contract, especially if it buys out several unrestricted free agent seasons. Domi will be two years from UFA status when this contract ends.

After finishing 15th among all forwards in the league in even-strength assists with 37, there’s good reason to believe that Domi will soon become the Canadiens’ highest-paid forward. That honor currently goes to Jonathan Drouin with his $5.5MM cap hit, who also looks like something of a bargain as RFA contracts continue to rise. In fact, Montreal has set themselves up with quite a bit of cap room even while carrying Shea Weber and Carey Price’s huge contracts, and should have more than enough room to compensate Domi fairly.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Pavel Zacha Linked To KHL

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1:20pm: Devils GM Ray Shero certainly isn’t concerned with the reports about Zacha and the KHL. The executive spoke to reporters including John Wawrow of the Associated Press and explained that if Zacha wants to go to the KHL “it’s a long way back to the NHL.” Shero still hopes to sign Zacha for this season, but is quick to point out that the Devils own his rights regardless.

8:30am: Though their offseason has focused on other things, the New Jersey Devils are another one of the teams around the NHL with an unsigned restricted free agent just a few days before training camp opens. Pavel Zacha is still without a contract, and he may not be getting one from the Devils anytime soon. Igor Eronko of Sport-Express passes on a report that Zacha has agreed to terms with Avangard of the KHL. There has been no official announcement from either side at this point, but losing Zacha to the KHL would be a big disappointment for a Devils team that has plans to contend for the playoffs this season. As a restricted free agent that received a qualifying offer, his rights would be retained by New Jersey.

Of course, it is very important to note that until a deal is actually signed—not just agreed to—Zacha could very well still end up in New Jersey. The 22-year old doesn’t have a ton of leverage in his negotiation after struggling to put up big offensive numbers and even seeing some time in the minor leagues last season. Originally selected sixth overall in 2015, the Czech forward has recorded just 76 points in 201 NHL games, though did post his career-high in goals last year with 13. Dealing with injuries and inconsistencies over his first three seasons, it seems likely that the Devils wouldn’t be offering a very lucrative deal for Zacha.

The fact that he is not arbitration eligible yet means there are only a couple of ways for this to end, and no real deadline other than December 1st. That’s when Zacha would become ineligible to play in 2019-20 should he not have an NHL contract filed with the league. Dropping a hint by agreeing to terms in the KHL may push a negotiation along, or it may be simply that Zacha intends on playing overseas this year to get his game back on track.

The Devils have added Wayne Simmonds, Nikita Gusev and Jack Hughes to their forward group (among others) this season, making it even tougher for players like Zacha to crack the top-six and powerplay units moving forward.

Anaheim, Carolina Discussing Justin Faulk

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When the Carolina Hurricanes signed Jake Gardiner last week, speculation immediately erupted about the future of Justin Faulk. The right-handed Faulk has just one year remaining on his contract before hitting unrestricted free agency and was made expendable—at least on the powerplay—by the depth of the Carolina blueline. Now, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports that the Anaheim Ducks have had discussions with Carolina about the defenseman. Friedman notes that the Ducks are on Faulk’s no-trade list but would also like to work out an extension, and makes it clear that the deal is not done at this point. James Mirtle of The Athletic tweets that Faulk’s 15-team no-trade clause has been “causing issues” for Carolina as they try to move him.

Once considered a haven for young defensemen, the Anaheim blueline depth has become thinner and thinner over the last few years. The Ducks have watched Shea Theodore, Sami Vatanen and Brandon Montour leave town through various trades, leaving Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm and Josh Manson as the lone three defensemen the team can really count on this season. While Brendan Guhle, Josh Mahura and Jacob Larsson provide some interesting upside, adding Faulk would give the team another established name to line up in their top-four every night.

That said, the deal wouldn’t make much sense for Anaheim without the contract extension. The Ducks have turned their focus to the next wave of forwards coming through the system and will be without long-time core pieces like Corey Perry and Ryan Kesler. That young group is exciting and talented, but could very well leave Anaheim chasing in the Pacific Division. Faulk is just 27 however and should be able to contribute at a high level for the next several seasons.

That high level is impressive in this case. Faulk has been one of the most consistent offensive defensemen in the NHL over his career, recording at least 31 points in each of the last six seasons. Though he’s prone to a bad turnover and isn’t a star in his own end, there’s good reason to believe that he could have a lot of success in Anaheim if paired with Lindholm or Fowler.

For Carolina, moving on from their former co-captain made the most sense after Gardiner was acquired.  Dougie Hamilton, Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce are all signed for at least two seasons, while young Haydn Fleury and Jake Bean look ready to contribute. If the team can add some more offense or future assets in exchange for the expiring Faulk, it will only help them improve their own program that got all the way to the Eastern Conference Final last season.

Morning Notes: Flyers, Canadiens, Colts

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The Philadelphia Flyers have extended their affiliation with the Reading Royals of the ECHL. The two organizations have been partnered for the past five years and have signed a one-year agreement with an option for 2020-21. Flyers GM Chuck Fletcher explained the move:

We are very happy to extend our relationship with the Reading Royals. Over the last five years, we have seen how advantageous it has been to have each of our minor league affiliates, which includes the AHL’s Lehigh Valley Phantoms, in close proximity to Philadelphia, as we continue to develop players within the Flyers system.

The Royals missed the playoffs last season for the first time in a decade, but still posted a 34-28-10 record. Like other teams in the ECHL, Reading is used as a place for raw or long-shot prospects to hone their games in hopes of a chance at the AHL or NHL level some day. The team was led in scoring once again by Chris McCarthy, a 28-year old forward that has become something of a superstar for Reading over the last few seasons.

  • Montreal Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin confirmed to Eric Engels of Sportsnet that the team did make an offer to Jake Gardiner before the defenseman signed with the Carolina Hurricanes, but explained that it is a “two-way street” and that the player needs to be interested as well. Gardiner’s market didn’t quite become what many thought it would be this summer as few teams offered him the term he was looking for. The Hurricanes signed him for four years and $16.2MM on Friday.
  • The Canadiens also won’t be bringing in Jason Pominville according to Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports, who notes that the club wants to give their young players a “fair chance” during training camp. Pominville is still unsigned despite a 16-goal, 31-point season in 2018-19 and may need to settle for a professional tryout at this point in order to earn a contract.
  • After Dale Hawerchuk was forced to take a leave of absence from the Barrie Colts coaching staff due to health concerns, the team has brought in a familiar OHL face. Warren Rychel, the long-time co-owner and general manager of the Windsor Spitfires will take over as head coach. Rychel sold his stake in the Spitfires earlier this year and stepped down from his post in the front office. Rychel played more than 400 games in the NHL, winning the Stanley Cup with the Colorado Avalanche in 1996.

Zach Werenski Signs With Columbus Blue Jackets

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There will be no training camp holdout for Zach Werenski. The Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman has agreed to a three-year, $15MM contract. Werenski will still be a restricted free agent at the deal’s expiry, though will be arbitration eligible. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports the breakdown:

  • 2019-20: $4MM
  • 2020-21: $4MM
  • 2021-22: $7MM

The structure of the deal is an important thing to note, as the increased salary in year three guarantees Werenski will be given a qualifying offer of $7MM. Given that he’ll be just one year away from unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2022, it essentially makes the deal a four-year, $22MM deal ($5.5MM) if Werenski wanted. He’ll also be eligible for arbitration, where his previous salary will be taken into account.

To be sure, this deal represents a bargain for the Blue Jackets in the short term. Werenski has proven to be one of the most offensively-gifted young defensemen in the league over his three-year career, recording 38 goals and 128 points in 237 games. He has double-digit goals in each season and forms one of the best pairings in the NHL alongside Seth Jones. The fact that he is just 22 means there is room for improvement and likely even more excess value for the Blue Jackets over the next three years.

Unfortunately, that bargain will change dramatically at the end of the deal. Negotiating an extension with Werenski when he has the option of taking a $7MM payday and walking straight into unrestricted free agency will mean the Blue Jackets would have to offer a substantial increase, likely making him one of the highest-paid defensemen in the league. It also means that Werenski and Jones will both be negotiating extensions at the same time, though the latter is scheduled for unrestricted free agency in 2022 and should be getting a huge raise as soon as possible (which is July 1, 2021) if the Blue Jackets want to retain him.

Having both of their young defenders hitting free agency (of one kind or another) at the same time is obviously not ideal, but it also means that the team does have a sort of rebuild deadline if things aren’t going well over the next few seasons. The Blue Jackets actually have just three players signed through the 2022-23 season and just one—Cam Atkinson—for longer than that. While other teams are handing out long-term extensions to lock in their core for nearly a decade, Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen seems prepared to re-evaluate every few seasons to make sure his club doesn’t get too far ahead of themselves.

Obviously for Werenski this is a strong contract, even if he did accept a little less money up front. He controls where he wants to spend his prime years and how he wants to approach negotiations down the line. The fact that it is done a few days before training camp will allow him to enjoy the full preparation for this season.

For the other restricted free agent defensemen, it also may provide a model contract. Charlie McAvoy and Ivan Provorov remain unsigned as camp approaches and are in similar situations. McAvoy is a year further from unrestricted free agency, but for both the idea may be the same; take a shorter-term deal that gets you close to UFA status and go from there.

Kevin Weekes of the NHL Network and Aaron Portzline of The Athletic reported the deal earlier this morning.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Washington Capitals Hire Brooks Orpik

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Brooks Orpik will be staying with the Washington Capitals after all. The veteran defenseman retired from his playing days earlier this offseason, but will join the Capitals’ Player Development department, working with prospects and players from the Hershey Bears. GM Brian MacLellan explained why he hired one of his former players:

As a member of our team, Brooks was a tremendous leader and a great role model for our young players. We are excited to be able to bring him back in this new role. We feel he will be a great resource for our hockey staff and our prospects.

Orpik, 38, played the last five seasons of his career with the Capitals and took home his second Stanley Cup in 2018. A first-round pick that took a few years to really find his way in the NHL, he’ll be able to relate to many of the team’s top prospects that are trying to get to the highest level. Never much of an offensive threat, Orpik still managed to carve out an excellent playing career that included two selections for the Olympics and more than 1,000 regular season NHL games.

In June he explained that his body simply couldn’t take another season, but it comes as little surprise that “Batya” as his Washington teammates called him, wants to stay involved in the game. Orpik will obviously be starting in a smaller role, but a future in the front office or coaching seems like a natural progression for the big defenseman.

Five Key Stories: 9/2/19 – 9/8/19

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With the calendar having flipped to September, activity has picked up around the league with some retirements, big signings, and even a former MLB GM joining San Jose as a scout.  Here are the top stories around the league from the past seven days.

Gardiner To Carolina: It took two months longer than pretty much anyone expected but defenseman Jake Gardiner now has a contract for the upcoming season.  Where he landed came as a surprise as is the deal he wound up signing.  The veteran inked a four-year, $16.2MM contract with Carolina, a team that was already extremely deep on the back end.  On top of that, the $4.05MM AAV was considerably lower than most anticipated; it matches the one from his previous deal.  While his defensive warts are well-known, the depth the Hurricanes have means that they’ll be able to use Gardiner in a bit more of a limited role which should wind up being a good thing for him.

Williams Steps Aside: Gardiner’s deal couldn’t have happened without the announcement from winger Justin Williams that he “taking a break” from hockey.  That’s not to be considered as him retiring as he left the door open for a midseason return.  The Hurricanes wasted little time spending the money that was earmarked for him on Gardiner though, a move that puts them over the salary cap for now.  That will make it tricky to bring Williams back if he wants to come back later on.  If it does wind up being the end of the line for the 37-year-old, he’ll finish up with an impressive 786 points in 1,244 regular season games plus another 101 postseason points in 155 contests.

Eight Years For Keller: Clayton Keller’s sophomore season saw him take a big step back offensively as his output dipped from 65 points down to 47.  Despite that, Coyotes GM John Chayka continued his trend of signing players to early extensions, agreeing to an eight-year deal that carries a $7.15MM AAV.  That will give the winger the highest cap hit among forwards when the contract kicks in for 2020-21.  Despite the dip in production, Keller should be the focal point of their attack for years to come and while the deal may be risky now, if his point total jumps while playing alongside new acquisition Phil Kessel this season, it’s quite possible that the price tag would be higher a year from now.

Kronwall Retires: The Red Wings said they’d be patient when it came to a decision from veteran defenseman Niklas Kronwall on his plans for 2019-20.  Despite having a pretty good season in 2018-19 that saw him log over 20 minutes a game, the blueliner has called it a career and but will remain with the organization as an advisor to GM Steve Yzerman.  Kronwall spent his entire 15-year career with Detroit, playing in 953 games and contributing 432 points and many crushing hits.  The decision makes Detroit’s decision to sign Patrik Nemeth earlier this summer that much more important as he’ll effectively take Kronwall’s spot on the roster.

Thornton Re-Signs: It took a while but Joe Thornton is once again a member of the Sharks, signing a one-year, $2MM contract.  Thornton had indicated earlier that he only wanted to return to San Jose so the fact he’s sticking around is no surprise.  What is a bit of a surprise is the pay cut that he agreed to take, dropping from a $5MM salary to $2MM; the deal doesn’t contain any bonuses either.  In doing so, the Sharks now have a little bit of salary cap flexibility as they look to round out their roster and keep a bit of space open for in-season acquisitions.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Originals: 9/2/19 – 9/8/19

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Here’s a rundown of the original content at PHR over the past seven days.

Our trip around the salary cap situation for the Central Division continues.  I took a look at the situations for Colorado and Dallas while Holger did the same for Minnesota and Nashville.  Two of those teams project to be pretty tight to the $81.5MM Upper Limit for the upcoming season while Minnesota has some cap space but some expensive veteran contracts on the books.  Meanwhile, the picture for the Avalanche is pretty good right now though a big chunk of their cap room will be eaten when Mikko Rantanen signs his next deal.

Speaking of next contracts, that’s something that quite a few others need to get done in the coming weeks as well.  Among those are a pair of blueliners which we gave a closer look to.  Zach provided Rangers rearguard Anthony DeAngelo while I did the same for Flyers defenseman Ivan Provorov.  Both players present interesting cases.  DeAngelo is coming off of his best season but New York, pressured by cap constraints, is trying to force him to accept his qualifying offer despite the comparable contracts being in his favor.  Meanwhile, Provorov is coming off a poorer performance and while that would seemingly make him a candidate for a bridge contract, there aren’t many good equivalents for him to compare to.

Colorado is on the clock in our 2007 redraft series with the 14th selection.  They did pretty well with their initial selection with defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk although he hardly played for them as he was shipped to St. Louis in his rookie season.  The Avalanche won’t be able to get him here but there is still some quality talent on the board.  It’s nearly a dead heat as things stand but there is still time to make your pick.

The back half of our mailbag was released as I tackled questions about Jesse Puljujarvi, the Rangers’ backup goalie situation, David Backes’ contract and what Boston could do about it, players that could be on the rebound and decline, and how Seattle’s looming debut in 2021 could impact activity around the NHL this season.

RFA Profile: Ivan Provorov

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Heading into last season, Flyers defenseman Ivan Provorov appeared to be well on his way to stardom and a second contract that would put him in that higher echelon for blueliners.  However, things didn’t go exactly as planned and all of a sudden, he remains unsigned with the start of training camp just days away and a lot of confusion over what his next deal could look like.  Let’s take a look at some of the possibilities.

In 2017-18, Provorov picked up 17 goals and 41 points.  Despite logging an extra minute per night on average, his output dropped to just seven goals and 26 points last year.  Generally, players with that type of output aren’t candidates for big money, long-term contracts but a player with a stat line like his sophomore season are options for one.

Accordingly, potential contract values are all over the board.  Understandably, Provorov’s camp will be pointing to his 2017-18 numbers as a sign of things to come and that his dip was just a blip on the radar and not a sign of things to come.  On the flip side, management will be trying to use last season as the basis for comparison.  They’ve also indicated that they’d like to see other RFAs sign (players like Zach Werenski and Charlie McAvoy come to mind) before committing to a deal.  While everyone waits each other out, here are some of the possible comparables in play.

Statistics

2018-19: 82 GP, 7-19-26, -16, 32 PIMS, 145 shots, 25:07 ATOI
Career: 246 GP, 30-67-97, -6, 86 PIMS, 509 shots, 23:45 ATOI

Comparables

Rasmus Ristolainen (Buffalo) – Like Provorov, Ristolainen has been viewed as a top defender for the Sabres but one that has some warts as well.  His rookie season was only a partial one like Provorov though so on a long-term deal, Provorov should be expecting more than this.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 9-32-41, -21, 33 PIMS, 202 shots, 25:17 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 194 GP, 19-46-65, -68, 65 PIMS, 375 shots, 22:19 ATOI

Contract: Six years, $32.4MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 7.40%
Current Equivalent: Six years, $36.816MM ($6.03MM AAV)

Dougie Hamilton (Carolina) – Hamilton was a little more consistent offensively than Provorov but the top years offensively were similar.  On the flip side, Provorov has handled a much tougher workload through the first three seasons of his career so he should be shooting a little higher than this equivalent as well.

Platform Year Stats: 72 GP, 10-32-42, -3, 41 PIMS, 188 shots, 21:20 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 178 GP, 22-61-83, +23, 95 PIMS, 385 shots, 19:32 ATOI

Contract: Six years, $34.5MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 8.05%
Current Equivalent: Six years, $39.365MM ($6.56MM AAV)

Aaron Ekblad (Florida) – This is the contract that Provorov’s side is almost assuredly bringing up.  This set the market for post-ELC defenders though it’s worth noting it was only signed after his second season (and his third year didn’t go so well).  Provorov is the better offensive threat of the two as well.

Platform Year Stats: 68 GP, 10-11-21, -23, 58 PIMS, 225 shots, 21:28 ATOI (last year of ELC)
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 227 GP, 37-59-96, +7, 131 PIMS, 577 shots, 21:40 ATOI

Contract: Eight years, $60MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 10.27%
Current Equivalent: Eight years, $66.96MM ($8.37MM AAV)

In terms of a recent bridge contract to compare, there aren’t really any good options out there.  Most quality post-ELC players have signed deals of six years or longer.  Those that have had bridge deals (such as Jacob Trouba, Josh Morrissey, or even teammate Travis Sanheim) are all in the roughly 4% range which equates to roughly $3.25MM to $3.5MM.  That’s not going to get it done either.  Let’s look in between those two terms then.

Colton Parayko (St. Louis) – This isn’t a perfect one considering Parayko’s entry-level pact was only two years but there isn’t a large list to draw from.  He had a bit more of an offensive impact that Provorov but as is the case with everyone else on this list, Provorov was logging heavier minutes.

Platform Year Stats: 81 GP, 4-31-35, +7, 32 PIMS, 188 shots, 21:12 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 160 GP, 13-55-68, +35, 61 PIMS, 353 shots, 20:18 ATOI

Contract: Five years, $27.5MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 7.33%
Current Equivalent: Five years, $29.87MM ($5.97MM AAV)

Projected Contract

Earlier this summer, I thought Provorov was heading for a bridge deal simply because of the large variation between his last two seasons.  However, I’m not as confident in that idea now just because of the largely uncharted waters they would be entering.  Provorov’s camp is going to want Ekblad money but GM Chuck Fletcher isn’t going to give that out.  Going with a Parayko-type deal could happen but that would only buy out one year of UFA eligibility.  It’s hard to see Fletcher wanting that either.  As a result, a six or seven-year contract could be where this ultimately winds up.  He should slot in a little higher than Hamilton which would put an AAV around $6.75MM on a six-year pact and a little higher than that on a seven-year one because of the extra UFA year.  Fortunately for Fletcher and the Flyers, they have ample cap space to get a contract done, no matter how long or how much it will cost.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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