Topics in this edition of the mailbag include RFA winger Jesse Puljujarvi, the Rangers’ backup goalie situation, David Backes’ big contract, players that could be on the rebound and decline, and how Seattle’s 2021 debut could affect activity around the league this season.
acarneglia: Are the Rangers a potential match for Puljujarvi?
met man: How do you think the Ranger goalie situation will play out? Which Russian will be Lundqvist’s’ partner? What happens to the odd man out?
As far as possible fits for Puljujarvi go, the Rangers would be one of the better ones. With a pretty young group of forwards, they’re the type of team where he could potentially fit in on a second or third line and have some success. Unfortunately for New York, they’re not a realistic landing spot.
With minimal cap space to work with and Brendan Lemieux and Anthony DeAngelo needing new contracts, the Rangers simply aren’t in a spot where they can realistically afford to add salary. It’s not that Puljujarvi would be commanding a pricey deal but he’ll want more than his qualifying offer and that might be too rich for what they can afford on the cap unless they offset some money elsewhere. Yes, Edmonton wants a top-nine forward for him but the only viable option would be Jesper Fast and that’s probably not going to get it done.
I actually think Puljujarvi’s trade odds have gone down. Going back to Finland is a good thing for his development. He’ll be out of the spotlight and can work on some of the elements that are lacking. A good season there will help his trade value and GM Ken Holland knows it. They’re not going to get much of a return now if they trade him so they might as well wait it out unless someone gets desperate. The Rangers won’t be that team.
As for the backup goalie situation, both Alexandar Georgiev and Igor Shesterkin are waiver-exempt which is actually a good thing here. I see the pair spending some time at both levels as a result. That way, they get a bit of time in the NHL but also see a fair bit of action in AHL Hartford. A young NHL backup is rarely an ideal situation from a development perspective so with two youngsters in the discussion, this is the best compromise they can make.
azcm2511: How does Boston get out from under the Backes contract? Taking into account his movement control, do you think it would be possible for Sweeney to find a buyer who will take on the entire contract if he was to package him with Torey Krug? I don’t see how they will manage to fit Krug into the budget if he is projected to be a 7-9 mil a year player after this season. The B’s have McAvoy and potentially Gryz to fill the PP void, do you see any potential matches for this scenario?
While I doubt they’d be willing to part with Krug to get out of Backes’ deal, I applaud you for thinking outside the box. I know contract talks haven’t really started with the pending UFA defender but there’s still plenty of time. They’re a team in win-now mode so parting with a top offensive weapon from the back end is counter-productive even if freeing up the money helps them re-sign Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo. I agree that his price tag may very well be too high to be a long-term fit but the internal discussion about trading him for that reason would come at the trade deadline and be based on where they are in the standings.
As for what they’ll do with Backes, he doesn’t have a no-move clause so they’d save a little bit by sending him down. If they replaced him with a minimum-salaried player, that’d free up an extra $375K in cap room. That’s not a lot but if that money isn’t spent over the course of the season, that’s worth a small addition at the trade deadline. I wonder if there’s a move to be made with 50% retention and a sweetener; their system is deep enough that it could part with a prospect or pick to do so without it hurting too badly. And if all else fails, they can try to find a doctor to certify him as injured and try to go the LTIR route. His style of play has made him susceptible to being injury-prone at this point of his career. It probably wouldn’t be a season-ender like some other players but it’d buy them some time and allow them to get into compliance to start the season and re-sign Carlo and McAvoy.
pawtucket: Which teams will surprise everyone and make or contend for a playoff spot and which teams will disappoint and shock us all?
pitmanrich: Which players do you see having a bounce-back season after a poor 18-19 season and which players are just in decline and will continue to get worse?
I made my picks for surprise teams a couple of mailbags ago and not much has changed since then. I think New Jersey could make some noise with some of their additions, the return to health from Taylor Hall, and a healthy season from Cory Schneider. On the flip side, Pittsburgh has taken a small step back on paper and they weren’t at their best last season so I could see them slipping out of the playoffs this time around.
In terms of bounce-back candidates, William Nylander in Toronto is a good place to start. He never looked right after missing the first two months of the year due to a contract holdout. I suspect this will almost feel like a fresh start for him (even though he didn’t change teams) and get back closer to his 60-point form. Arizona is clearly banking on a bounce back from Clayton Keller with the extension that he just got and playing alongside Phil Kessel should certainly help in that regard. Assuming Nikolaj Ehlers stays healthy, he should be in line for a big jump offensively as well.
I’m always hesitant to predict players on the downswing but I’m not sold that a coaching and system change in Anaheim will revive Ryan Getzlaf’s offense. He has a lot of heavy minutes under his belt and at some point, he’ll have to be scaled back a bit which won’t help his point total. The speed of the NHL concerns me when it comes to Ilya Kovalchuk and I’m not sure a new coach will vastly turn his game around. I’m also uncertain that Wayne Simmonds will turn things around considerably. I don’t mind his addition on a one-year deal but his rugged style of play screams potential decline. He should outperform his play with Nashville (three points in 19 games between the end of the season and playoffs) but I don’t expect him to get back to the level that he was at a couple of years ago with Philadelphia.
CarmanDyer9: What impact will the upcoming expansion draft have on this season? What potential moves could you see teams making to compensate for the expansion draft?
I feel a little bad for Seattle GM Ron Francis. Quite a few of the side deals that teams made to protect a certain player worked out quite well for Vegas and not so well for the other team. That’s going to make teams a little less willing to start moving things around and will just bite the bullet when the time comes and they lose a player.
I think we’re a year away from the 2021 expansion draft really having an impact on movement around the league. While teams are certainly planning ahead, it’s hard to see some thinking about moving their fourth defenseman now in fear that they’ll lose him to Seattle. Rosters will change considerably between now and then; who knows what the 2020 UFA market will bring?
Once we get to 2020-21 and things start to look a little clearer on the roster side, then we’ll start to see some effects. Teams may hesitate on UFA extension talks and a swap or two could be made with that in mind. A team that’s out of it midseason could try to take advantage of someone’s expansion situation in a rental player trade. But that’s still a year away. For 2019-20, don’t expect the expansion draft to really have too much of an impact on player movement around the league.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Georgiov is highly likely to be Hank’s backup
Georgiov , Fast, a defense prospect, Brendan Smith contract plus a 3rd rd pick for Puljujarvi and a 4th round pick was what I proposed weeks ago and it’s a viable option freeing up money to take on contract. If Rangers can add another contract in that deal then it makes a ton of sense for both teams.
Makes zero sense for the Oilers. All their prospects are defensemen so they dont need another. They only have 1.5 in cap space so Smith doesnt fit. They have 4 top goalie prospects already so another one isnt a fit. Only thing that makes any sense is Fast but he isnt enough alone to get the deal done. This is Ken Holland not Chiarelli theyre dealing with. You propose this deal works for both teams. Offering what doesnt fit in NY doesnt make it a fit in Edmonton. No one wants Smith and his bloated contract. He is New Yorks garbage, cant polish him off and call him gold because he makes 4.5. Edmonton has Broberg, Bouchard, Samurokov, Bear, Lagesson, Persson, and Jones as defensive prospects. Skinner, Starett, Wells, Rodrigue, and Konovalov (top 5 in KHL last year) in their system for goalies. No need or place for another. They dont want a pick for Puj as they want someone ready now to fill his role. If they cannot get that, they are willing to ride it out for a year and hope he grows his value in Finland and they can get more for him next offseason. Your offer is like me offering Kris Russell, a 2nd, Jujar Khiara, and Starett for Kakko and a 3rd.
You do realize Puljujarvi value is garbage. You do realize the Oikers defense prospects are not close to Rangers defense prospects and according to every nhl prospect site a huge need for the oilers is goalie and defense prospects? I think your blowing allot of smoke.
He’s exaggerating, but he’s more right than wrong. That trade doesn’t make sense for Edmonton and unless they’re getting something actually valuable it makes more sense to send him to Finland for a year
I think you need to look at the prospect lists a little more clearly and take off the NYR tinted glasses. Philip Broberg select 7th overall this year was widely considered the best defenseman of the draft this year behind only Byram Bowen. Not considered a prospect this year because he has committed to playing in Sweden. And Evan Bouchard was taken 10th overall the season prior just won OHL defenseman of the year, recorded 8 points in 8 AHL games, amd started the year on the big club. Only guy i think they would deem comparable to those 2 is Fox, and the Rangers are not trading him. Next tier the oilers have Samorukov Bear and Jones. Bear and Jones have both tasted the NHL already while Samorukov just completed a great last year in JR. They are on par with K’andre. And those 5 make up 5 of the Oilers top 10 on any list. Oilers needed a backup goalie in June. Now its Sept and they have signed Mike Smith to share time this season, and they have nowhere in their minor leagues for another backup. Skinner is their number 3/4 overall prospect is starting in Bakersfield this year with Starrett backing him and those other 2 in the ECHL, then they have that russian kid coming over next year or so. Could Georgiev be better than all of them? Sure, but its not an area of need and it would cost them having to release one of the others.
Yes, Jesse’s value is incredibly low right now. Thats why they dont have to trade him right now. Wait until they get something that answers an area of need, or wait for him to rebuild value later and get something of value to them at that time.
Only real exaduration is the deal as a reply as Kakko obviously has more value than Jesse. And completely agree with the rest of your post.
wreckage your last sentence sound like a better deal for what was proposed with your comment on Puljujarvi, honestly I don’t think the Blue Shirts in New York want Puljujarvi, regardless of price he has had several years to prove his self with Edmonton , reports are right let him play in Finland then Oilers can eveluate his performance, maybe some home cooking in Finland will help him out. Ranger don’t need Puljujarvi, and Smith is not worth what he’s being payed and Edmonton can’t afford that contract ,