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Archives for January 2018

Pacific Notes: Chiarelli, Canucks, Neal

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Although the Oilers have underachieved considerably this season, don’t expect big changes between now and the season.  Speaking with Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required), GM Peter Chiarelli stated that fans shouldn’t be expecting a major trade anytime soon:

“Part of what we’re striving for here is stability and continuity and sticking to a strong plan. We’re not going to stray from that. It doesn’t mean we’re not going to make a trade here and there. But a blockbuster, blow-it-up (trade)? No.’’

Many have been vocal for big changes in Edmonton this season either on the ice and/or behind the bench; Chiarelli also reiterated his support for head coach Todd McLellan.  While it still seems likely that they will move some of their pending free agents (winger Patrick Maroon and center Mark Letestu are top candidates), there may not be anything more substantial than that before the offseason.

Elsewhere in the Pacific:

  • The Canucks are on the lookout for a bottom-six power forward, reports Postmedia’s Ben Kuzma. In particular, they’re looking to replace winger Derek Dorsett, who got off to a strong start to his season before being forced to retire with lingering neck issues.  Vancouver doesn’t appear to have an internal replacement so they will likely have to turn to free agency to try to find someone that fits the bill although finding one that had the offensive upside that Dorsett showed at times will be difficult.
  • While it was widely expected over the summer that Golden Knights winger James Neal would be moved by the trade deadline, his agent Pat Morris told Ed Graney of the Las Vegas Review-Journal that he would be shocked if his client is in another uniform after February 26th. Vegas has shocked many by sitting atop the Western Conference standings at the All-Star break which has likely changed their original plans.  Morris also reiterated that Neal would entertain signing a contract extension to stay with the expansion franchise though neither he nor GM George McPhee would indicate if talks are currently ongoing.

Minor Transactions: 1/27/18

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Although there aren’t any games on the schedule with the All-Star Skills Competition on tap tonight, there will still be some roster moves around the league as players get sent back to play while the NHL is off.  We’ll keep tabs on those moves here.

  • The Maple Leafs announced that they have returned winger Kasperi Kapanen to the AHL’s Toronto Marlies. His stint with the big club didn’t last very long as he was only recalled back on Tuesday although there is a good chance he’ll be recalled in advance of their next game on Wednesday.  Kapanen has two goals in eight NHL games so far this season while adding 22 points (10-12-22) in 27 minor league contests, earning himself an All-Star nod at that level.  However, despite being sent down today, Kapanen has been replaced by teammate Andreas Johnsson for the AHL All-Star Classic which takes place Sunday and Monday.
  • Tampa Bay has flipped minor league goalies, recalling Connor Ingram from AHL Syracuse while sending Louis Domingue down, per the AHL’s Transactions page.  The shuffle will allow Domingue to play a game to stay in game shape before they resume their schedule next week while Ingram’s addition keeps the Lightning at the minimum two goalies on their roster.
  • After clearing waivers (per Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston on Twitter), the Blue Jackets have assigned winger Jordan Schroeder to Cleveland of the AHL, Aaron Portzline of The Athletic reports (Twitter link). It’s the second time that Schroeder has cleared waivers this season but since he has been up for more than a month under non-emergency conditions, he had to pass through once again.  The 27-year-old has a goal and an assist in 21 games with Columbus this season while adding eight points (3-5-8) in 15 minor league appearances.  Taking Schroeder’s place on the Columbus roster is defenseman Andre Benoit who has a goal and four assists with Cleveland in 31 games and last saw NHL action with St. Louis back in 2015-16.  His recall is likely just to keep the team at the minimum 20 players on the roster.

Extension Talks Pick Up Between Flames And Mikael Backlund

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The Flames and representatives for pending unrestricted free agent center Mikael Backlund have picked up talks regarding a contract extension recently, reports Postmedia’s Eric Francis.  However, Backlund himself isn’t overly thrilled that negotiations are occurring midseason:

“It’s not what I wanted, but it is what it is.  I wish I didn’t have to deal with it during the season, but it’s part of business and we’re professionals and have to deal with it. Both sides want the best, so we’ll see what happens.”

Oct 21, 2017; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Calgary Flames center Mikael Backlund (11) controls the puck against the Minnesota Wild during the third period at Scotiabank Saddledome. Minnesota Wild won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY SportsThe 28-year-old is certainly helping his case for a big contract whether it’s with the Flames or elsewhere for next season.  He’s on pace for a second straight 50-point campaign while he’s averaging a career-best 19:15 per night, second among all Calgary forwards.  Included in that is 2:25 per night shorthanded which is more than any other Flames attacker.  As a result, he will be coveted not only for his offensive abilities but also for his defensive acumen.

Francis reports that Backlund is seeking a deal between $5MM and $6MM per year on a five or six-year contract, money that would come close to the pact that Kyle Turris signed upon being traded to Nashville (six years, $36MM).  That would also represent a considerable raise on the $3.575MM he’s earning this season.  It’s reasonable to expect that he’ll have no trouble garnering a contract in that range if he is unsigned come July based on precedents around the league.

Meanwhile, GM Brad Treliving declined to comment on the status of discussions or the asking price, instead simply stating that their goal is to re-sign Backlund.  He would be wise to get a deal done before July as if he hits the open market, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the price go even higher with demand expected to greatly outweigh supply for centers in free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Atlantic Notes: Howard, Detroit Injuries, Stone, Ottawa Arena

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While many have expected the Red Wings will try to move goaltender Petr Mrazek before the trade deadline, MLive’s Ansar Khan reports that Detroit will look to move netminder Jimmy Howard.  The 33-year-old is having a down year compared to his stellar 2016-17 campaign and has posted a 2.82 GAA and a .911 SV% in 38 games this season.  However, what makes him a tougher candidate to deal than Mrazek (eligible for restricted free agency with a $4.15MM qualifying offer) is Howard’s contract, which has one year left on it beyond this season with a cap charge just shy of $5.3MM and a 10-team no-trade clause.  The goalie market isn’t expected to be too robust in the next month and expiring contracts will likely yield more attention for those teams seeking help or additional depth.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic:

  • Still with the Red Wings, they’re expected to get both center Darren Helm (leg) and winger Justin Abdelkader (groin) back on Wednesday, reports Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press. Both players have been out of the lineup since sustaining their injuries back on January 13th against the Penguins.
  • The Senators are hoping to have winger Mark Stone back on Tuesday, their first game following the All-Star break, notes Postmedia’s Ken Warren. He has missed the last three games due to a knee injury.  The 25-year-old is Ottawa’s leading point-getter with 18-26-44 in 44 games so far this season and is one of the few players believed to be untouchable for the Sens in trade talks.
  • Also from Ottawa, although they have reached a preliminary agreement on a new downtown arena, Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch cautions that it may take until the 2022-23 season if not longer before the arena is actually built and ready for use. It will still be another year or two before everything is finalized for the site to start being cleared and the arena being built so while brighter days appear to be on the horizon for the Senators in terms of a new place to play, they will still be waiting a while before they can move in.

Coyotes Notes: Perlini, Richardson, Draft Options

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While many would be quick to call Clayton Keller the Arizona Coyotes’ best young player, his teammate has quietly taken up the mantle of being the franchise’s all-time best young goal-scorer. AZSports’ Craig Morgan noted last night that Brendan Perlini’s 28th career goal in his 100th NHL game is most among ’Yotes alums in their first 100 games. Perlini passed up Peter Mueller, who had 27 in 100, a player who burned bright, but burned out young and was out of the NHL after his first five seasons. Arizona surely hopes that Perlini has more longevity and would especially be excited if he kept up his current level of play, having scored a goal in four straight games. Meanwhile, Keller surely has his eye on soon taking Perlini’s title; the 19-year-old has 14 goals through his first 53 games, so he’ll have to pick up the pace this season into next season.

  • Morgan was also the first to announce that Brad Richardson would not return to last night’s game after suffering an upper-body injury. There has been no update on Richardson’s status yet, but it would be no surprise if the veteran forward is out of the lineup for a substantial amount of time yet again. Richardson has had a tough go of it lately, missing six games due to injury this year after missing a whopping 66 games last year. Richardson has also struggled to produce with only nine points through 44 games. Nevertheless, the Coyotes are surely hoping that Richardson makes a speedy recovery with the NHL Trade Deadline fast approaching. With so few pending unrestricted free agents on the roster – Richardson, Antti Raanta, Luke Schenn, Zac Rinaldo – GM John Chayka would like to be able to move out as many as possible, unless his plan is make some larger deals involving his plethora of younger players.
  • In reality, the 2017-18 has long been over for the Coyotes and their next event of note is the 2018 NHL Entry Draft. Though the lottery could throw a wrench in their plans, Arizona is in the best position of any team to land the prize of the draft, Swedish phenom Rasmus Dahlin. TSN’s Bob McKenzie released his Mid-Season Draft Rankings today, in which he calls this the “Rasmus Dahlin draft” and makes of note of consensus that no player has a chance to go first overall besides the dynamic defenseman. With some doubt over the future of All-Star Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Chayka would like nothing more than to select a potential replacement in Dahlin. At the very least, the worst record in the NHL will guarantee the Coyotes a top-four pick and, as McKenzie specifies, one of the trio of forwards that make up the next tier of elite prospects behind Dahlin – Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina, and Brady Tkachuk.

Trade Candidates: Derek Ryan

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

In 2016-17, Derek Ryan made headlines as a 30-year-old playing in his first full NHL season after working his way to the highest level through levels like the Canadian University system and pro leagues in Hungary and Austria. The Carolina Hurricanes forward was even nominated for the Masterton Trophy to recognize the perseverance and dedication in took to stick with his NHL dreams much longer than most. In 2017-18, the narrative has changed from Ryan, the feel-good story, to Ryan, the legitimate NHL asset. If you thought Ryan’s 29 points in 67 games as an unheralded, aging rookie was impressive, take a look at his 26 points through 20 fewer games so far this year. Ryan has quietly established himself as a capable, versatile forward and with the Carolina Hurricanes again looking like the odd man out in the Metropolitan Division, the next chapter in Ryan’s story could be that of a key Trade Deadline acquisition.

Contract

Ryan re-signed with the Hurricanes this past summer on a one-year, one-way deal worth $1.425MM. By the Trade Deadline, Ryan will count for less than $500K against the salary cap. He will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.

2017-18

In 47 games, Ryan has nearly matched his offensive totals from last season, and then some. Ryan has already tied his 11 goals and is only three assists shy of his 18 and has done so in 20 fewer games. Ryan is on pace for 19 goals and 26 assists if he stays with the Hurricanes, though even the smallest hot streak, or perhaps a change of scenery, could push him over 20 goals or 30 assists. This season, Ryan has also been a superior five-on-five player, earning the trust of head coach Bill Peters and, in turn, more ice time. Even with a greater role and more exposure this season, Ryan has elite Corsi numbers and has been the best possession player on the roster. Ryan continues to be an asset at the face-off dot too, with a team-leading 56.3% success rate on nearly 600 draws thus far. He’s seen a slight uptick in hits and takeaways without an increase in penalty minutes as, despite a -13 rating that isn’t a true reflection of his game, he continues to be a two-way force who suppresses the opposition better than most of his fellow Carolina forwards. He often takes the ice against the best the other team has to offer and, compared to the team’s -17 goal differential, does well for himself. By all accounts, Ryan has taken another step forward in all facets in 2017-18.

Season Stats

47 GP, 11 goals, 15 assists, 26 points, -13 rating, 10 PIM, 92 shots, 16:18 ATOI, 56.9 CF%

Potential Suitors

While most teams did not even his know his name a few short years ago, Ryan will now be a sought-after depth addition at the Trade Deadline. A responsible, well-rounded forward, Ryan is the type of player that nearly any team could use for the stretch run. With the versatility to play all three forward positions, the depth to his game to line up on the second, third, or fourth line depending on fit and need, and a cap hit that is a total non-factor, there is spot on every contender’s roster for Ryan this season. Who could use him the most? The league’s top team, the Tampa Bay Lightning, are a bit top-heavy on offense and could use a player like Ryan to add balance to their forward corps. The San Jose Sharks and Philadelphia Flyers are in a similar boat. Neither of those three teams have a specific, identifiable need that Ryan could fill, but could greatly use the flexibility he provides as a depth asset.

More specifically, Ryan could be another option for the Pittsburgh Penguins in their continued search for a third-line center. However, the Hurricanes may want to avoid trading Ryan to one of the teams they would need to leapfrog to make the playoffs – especially one with back-to-back Stanley Cup titles. Two other top contenders, the Boston Bruins and Washington Capitals, could really use Ryan as an anchor on their fourth lines. Both teams could use an injection of talent on their energy line, as well as another forward who could fill in throughout the lineup, as they march toward the postseason. The Bruins’ responsible, two-way, possession-heavy game especially seems to fit Ryan.

Likelihood of a Trade

The Derek Ryan story has been a great one, but it’s time for the Carolina Hurricanes to move on. Ryan has been a major surprise and a great addition to the lineup the past two years, but the ’Canes face an uphill battle to make the playoffs and should get what they can for all of their impending UFA’s. If they so choose, Carolina could bring Ryan back in free agency, but it’s no use holding onto him for this season. The 31-year-old second-year NHLer faces a limited window to win the ultimate prize, a Stanley Cup, and in the midst of an outstanding season, he deserves to join a contender. Despite his amazing climb from the bowels of the hockey world to the highest level, Ryan remains a name that few people really know. Yet, expect him to quietly garner a lot of attention over the next month.

Minor Transactions: 01/26/18

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The All-Star break is upon us, and players all over the league will be flying away to get a few days of rest and relaxation. For some, the destination will be Tampa Bay to suit up and represent their team among the best of the best. For others, the minor leagues might be at the end of that flight, with no rest awaiting them. Many waiver-exempt players will be sent down this weekend, though not all of them will actually suit up for their AHL squads. We’ll keep track of all the minor movement right here.

Extension Perception: William Karlsson & Shooting Percentages

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The Vegas Golden Knights have been an incredible story for the better part of a year. On March 6th, 2017 the team signed Reid Duke, the first player under contract with the expansion franchise and a symbol for what would transpire in the upcoming months. Duke had been a top pick by the Lethbridge Hurricanes of the WHL, fifth overall in the 2011 bantam draft. He came in with huge expectations for the junior club, only to underwhelm through his first few seasons. He was good, but not great, in those first two years with Lethbridge and fell to the sixth round in the NHL draft.

"<strongMinnesota was the team who finally took a chance on him, selecting him 169th overall. That year in junior he would be traded to the Brandon Wheat Kings, where he would again play well, but never come to an agreement on a professional contract with the Wild. Instead, he would head back to junior as an overage free agent, now adrift from the only NHL organization he’d ever been a part of. That feeling is one known by the rest of the Golden Knights squad, after they were left exposed in the expansion draft or sent to Vegas in order to protect a more valuable player.

William Karlsson may be the best example. The Columbus Blue Jackets needed to protect some of their other, more prized players—specifically Josh Anderson, who was left technically unprotected—and ended up trading first and second round picks (and the contract of David Clarkson) to do so. As GM Jarmo Kekalainen said at the time, they did it to “try to keep the core of our team intact.” Karlsson, a good player who had scored 20 and 25 points in his first two NHL seasons was selected by Vegas instead.

If you’ve been following the NHL at all this season, it’s obvious that Karlsson had more to give. He currently ranks only behind Alex Ovechkin in goals with 27, only one fewer than he had scored in his entire North American professional career (NHL and AHL combined) before this season. He sits second on the Golden Knights in points behind only Jonathan Marchessault, eight points ahead of the team’s All-Star forward James Neal.

He also is a restricted free agent this summer.

The Golden Knights have already anointed Marchessault as part of the core moving forward, signing him to a six-year $30MM contract extension at the beginning of the month. The Florida Panthers cast-off is the most dangerous forward on the ice more often than not, and is proving that his 30-goal season in 2016-17 was no fluke. For Karlsson, that question still exists.

There was never an expectation that Karlsson would turn into a potential 40-goal scorer, not even when he was selected 53rd overall by the Anaheim Ducks in 2011. He’d never shown skill like that before, and though if you watch him on a nightly basis you can certainly see where it’s coming from now, there is still some doubt in his ability to replicate this season in the future. Karlsson is shooting a whopping 26.7% this season, which leads Anders Lee by 4% for the league lead. He’s directed just 101 shots on net, the fewest amount by anyone that has scored more than 17 goals. He trails the leaders in that category, Ovechkin and Vladimir Tarasenko, by more than 100.

Karlsson had a 7.7% shooting percentage coming into this season, and though some of the boost could be explained away by playing with some exceptional linemates, his current pace is almost impossible to maintain long-term. Whether that means it will fall back to his career average isn’t a guarantee, but somewhere closer to the league average of around 9% is much more likely. That brings out the question, of what to do in terms of an extension.

The 25-year old Karlsson is earning just $1MM this season, and isn’t scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent until the summer of 2020. That means any extension will be buying out two years of restricted free agency, unlike Marchessault’s deal or a potential contract for Neal, who is also a UFA this summer. That helps keep it low, but there is a way to perhaps keep it even lower if the Golden Knights believe in statistical regression more than Karlsson’s ability to shoot better than everyone else in the league.

Paying long-term for him at this point would likely mean handing him a very expensive extension. After all, he’s among the candidates for the Rocket Richard trophy and will be a key part of the first playoff appearance (and perhaps Presidents Trophy) in franchise history. But if they were to sign him to a shorter bridge deal, while still an obvious raise on his current salary, it would force him to prove once again he can be among the league’s best goal scorers before receiving out any long-term deal. The Golden Knights have to be careful not to overpay for production that isn’t likely to repeat—unless of course they think it will, and that this is the new Karlsson.

The contract negotiations for Karlsson will be one of the most interesting parts of the offseason, as he also has arbitration rights. His case will be one that will show the hand of the Golden Knights in terms of traditional or analytical negotiating, and how hard they’ll work to—if we can borrow a line from Karlsson’s old GM—try to keep the core of their team intact.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Rangers, Dahlin, Johnson

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The New York Rangers are currently just a single point out of a playoff spot, and two points out of second place in the Metropolitan Division, but according to Larry Brooks of the New York Post that won’t make them buyers at the deadline. In fact, Brooks writes that the Rangers are preparing to “blow it up” and are willing to deal Ryan McDonagh and Mats Zuccarello along with their rental options.

It’s not the first time we’ve heard McDonagh’s name mentioned, as he currently sits tenth on the TSN Trade Bait board, but is still might come as a surprise. The Rangers captain has logged 24 minutes a night again this season, and currently has 24 points through 45 games. While he may not match his career-high of 14 goals, he’s certainly a bargain at his $4.7MM cap hit this year and next.

  • Welcome to “the Rasmus Dahlin draft” writes TSN insider Bob McKenzie, who released his early rankings for the 2018 NHL Entry Draft today. Dahlin tops the board like everywhere else, but McKenzie’s rankings do differ from some of the other leading sources. Perhaps most notably is Ryan Merkley at #11, as the dynamic Guelph defenseman has slipped to the back half of the first round in most other rankings. McKenzie explains why, noting Merkley’s perceived attitude problem and temperament as potential reasons for his fall.
  • Darren Dreger was on TSN 1050 radio today, and said that he’d be “shocked” if the Toronto Maple Leafs’ GM Lou Lamoriello hadn’t called on Jack Johnson from the Columbus Blue Jackets. As noted in our most recent live chat, Johnson does seem like a pretty good fit for the Maple Leafs down the stretch as he tries to secure a long-term contract this summer. Johnson is looking for an opportunity to play a big role somewhere, and the Maple Leafs have had a revolving door in the back half of their defense corps. Still, with Morgan Rielly and Nikita Zaitsev returning from injury soon and Travis Dermott showing he’s ready for the NHL, the Maple Leafs aren’t guaranteed to be on the market any longer.

Zach Bogosian To Undergo Hip Surgery, Out Four To Six Months

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The Buffalo Sabres have decided that its time to shut Zach Bogosian down for the year, as the defenseman will undergo hip surgery to correct an issue that he’s been dealing with all season. The expected recovery timeline is four to six months, meaning Bogosian will not play again this season.

Bogosian, 27, hasn’t made quite the impact many were hoping for since he came over from the Winnipeg Jets as part of the Evander Kane–Tyler Myers deal in 2015. The big, bruising defenseman that broke into the NHL as an 18-year old after being selected third overall in 2008, has seen his role on the Sabres continually diminished as he struggles to contribute offensively. This season, playing in just 18 games, Bogosian recorded the lowest average ice time since his rookie year, and registered just a single point.

Injury isn’t a new experience for Bogosian, who hasn’t played more than 65 games in a season in now seven years, and only once cracked 80 games played. It has seemed like every time he starts to get in a groove he faces another setback, and this time it will be another long-term stint on the sideline.

With two more seasons under contract with the Sabres at $5.14MM, Buffalo will need Bogosian to find some modicum of health and reclaim his place as a minute-munching defender. For a team that has struggled defensively for years, a healthy 2018-19 is paramount to their success. As the team now decides which assets to sell off, you can bet Bogosian won’t be one of them.

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