Hurricanes, Flames Hire Analytics Experts
The analytics movement in hockey is no longer a novel thing. Nearly every team has embraced advanced analytics, with some teams housing entire analytics departments even. Thus, it is no surprise when teams announce that they have hired an analytics expert to their front office staff. What remains interesting however is where some teams find these new additions. Last year, the Vegas Golden Knights hired General Fanager creator Tom Poraszka as a Hockey Operations Analyst to help get their player evaluations off an running ahead of the NHL Expansion Draft and Entry Draft. Now, it seems the Carolina Hurricanes and Calgary Flames have taken a page out of that book.
The Hurricanes announced today that they have hired datarink.com creator Kevin Kan to join their staff. Kan will be given the title of Data Engineer and will surely have similar duties to the function of his website. Data Rink was a hockey statistics visualizations site, scraping NHL data and putting it into forms that better displayed the co-mingling of different stats and advanced analytics. Carolina has already put together a talented and extremely deep defensive corps, not to mention acquiring their presumed franchise goalie in Scott Darling, but need to find a way to boost scoring. Whether examining data from draft-eligible prospects or current pros, Kan can help GM Ron Francis in his search for that missing link up front that can take the ‘Canes to contender status.
The Flames had a similar thought, hiring David Johnson, the mind behind both hockeyanalysis.com and puckalytics.com, which have already been taken down. Sportsnet’s John Shannon reported the hire, adding that Calgary has recently been focused on improving its analytics ability. Johnson is a good fit for the job, as he was one of the first to adopt and explore both Corsi and Fenwick, major advanced analytic statistics. Unlike Kan, who simply displayed data in creative ways, Johnson has used his analysis to often fight for or against the value of one player or another. Johnson has had his fair share of both hits and misses in that practice, but what he provides to the Flames is a knowledge base and different point of view on any projects and questions facing GM Brad Treliving, who has been plenty busy this off-season with the addition of Travis Hamonic, Spencer Foo, Mike Smith, and Eddie Lack already. Now that the championship window is open in Calgary, Johnson will come in handy when evaluation is necessary to make sure no further moves derail those title chances.
While it is tough for fans to see some of their favorite analytics sites continue to disappear, it is refreshing to see the game continue to embrace analytics and those leading the charge find employment at the highest level.
After Arbitration Hearing, Nate Schmidt Still Without Contract
Though arbitration hasn’t resulted in any decisions yet this season, Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Nate Schmidt could be the first to have a ruling come down. Steve Carp of the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports that the two sides went through the hearing today in Toronto, and still do not have a contract worked out. That leaves them with a 48 hour window with which to come to some sort of an agreement, similar to Tomas Tatar and Viktor Arvidsson last month.
Schmidt submitted a one-year $2.75MM ask, while the team countered with a two-year deal worth a total of $1.95MM. Like any arbitration, those are outside points on a contract that will ultimately fall somewhere in the middle. The two year term is not negotiable however, as Schmidt filed for player-elected salary arbitration, which gives the option on length to the team.
That said, a long-term contract is still a possibility between the two sides. Schmidt has shown impressive potential with the Washington Capitals in the past, and is a dynamic player who could fit in quite well with a team strapped for high-end skill. His skating ability would be quite the draw for new fans, though success on the ice is obviously paramount. If Schmidt does receive a cheap two-year term, he would immediately become an excellent trade chip, something we’ve discussed in the past for the Golden Knights. The 26-year old would be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the two years.
Teams Currently Without Captains
The Nashville Predators are the latest team to join the ranks of the uncaptained, after Mike Fisher officially announced his retirement from the NHL this morning. They’ll now have to make a decision on whether or not to give one of their current players the “C”, or wait until a leader emerges at some point down the road. Perhaps one of their young stars will show enough this year to deserve it, if they don’t immediately give it to one of their stud defensemen. Much of the chatter among fans has been about Roman Josi or Ryan Ellis taking on the mantle, though nothing is clear just yet.
There are five other teams who have yet to name a captain for the upcoming season, and though some may go through the year with three alternates instead, there are several options to take up the leadership and stitch that curved letter to the front of their jersey.
Buffalo Sabres
Brian Gionta wore the “C” for the past three seasons, but it seems as though the team might go in a different direction this year. Gionta remains unsigned, and though a return is still a possibility it seems remote. Gionta himself gave some options for the next captain next year, listing Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Okposo and Jack Eichel as obvious possibilities. O’Reilly does seem to be the most logical choice right now, after playing as an alternate last season and generally being regarded as one of the team’s best players. It will be hard to deny Eichel of it though, who was drafted as the face of the franchise and will likely one day lead the team.
An outside chance could be Josh Gorges for a season, as he finishes his current contract. The 32-year old defenseman has been part of the leadership group since coming over from the Montreal Canadiens in 2014, and could prove to be a nice buffer for another season before handing it over to Eichel.
Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes haven’t had a captain since Eric Staal was moved at the 2016 trade deadline to the New York Rangers, instead using Jordan Staal, Justin Faulk, Jeff Skinner and Victor Rask as their leadership group. There isn’t any indication on whether the Hurricanes will name a captain before the season, but any of those four could be successful options.
There is also the possibility of the newly extended Brett Pesce and Jaccob Slavin, both of whom are quite young but figure to be huge parts of the franchise for many years. It will be interesting to see who is picked to lead the young group, as the core is set to stay together for quite some time.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs have always held their captaincy as a sacred role, and after the ugly exit that was Dion Phaneuf‘s departure may wait a little longer to embroider their next jersey. Auston Matthews is the obvious option, but it’s clear the team doesn’t want to put too much on his shoulders right away. Morgan Rielly has developed into a leader on the blueline, and is still young enough to grow with the rookies and help the Maple Leafs find glory once again.
Leo Komarov, Tyler Bozak and Matt Hunwick also wore letters last season, but the latter is already in Pittsburgh and the former two are free agents at the end of the year. It will likely be a whole new leadership group in 2018-19.
Arizona Coyotes
After parting ways with their long-time captain Shane Doan, the Coyotes have yet to announce the next captain of their team. Though it’s not official yet, many believe that role will go to Oliver Ekman-Larsson in part as an attempt to sway him to re-sign next summer. OEL has just two years left on his contract before becoming one of the highest-paid defensemen in the league, and is clearly Arizona’s best player.
This summer the team brought in a friend and former teammate Niklas Hjalmarsson to try and prove to Ekman-Larsson that they’re ready to take a step forward, and if he’s there long-term he would undoubtedly have a “C” sewn on.
Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights haven’t announced any of their captains as of yet, and it will be a very interesting decision when they do. Only three active players are signed for more than two years, and you would think the expansion franchise would want a stable leader to grow with the team for some time. That said, announcing a captain would be a big marketing play for an organization that is trying to connect with fans.
Deryk Engellend was brought in because of his ties to the Las Vegas community, but he’s only under contract for a single season and is already declining rapidly in effectiveness. Marc-Andre Fleury is likely the face of the franchise for now, but isn’t signed long-term and can’t officially have the “C” as a goaltender. Reilly Smith—one of the only players signed for more than two years—did captain his college team once upon a time, and could potentially grow into that role with his new club. They could also wait and hope Cody Glass or Nick Suzuki make an immediate impact in the NHL, and give the role to one of them in a few years.
Nate Schmidt Still Working Towards Contract With Golden Knights
One of the few remaining arbitration cases left on the docket, Nate Schmidt is the Vegas Golden Knights’ final restricted free agent to sign this summer. Though he has a hearing scheduled for Thursday, August 3rd, Schmidt and the team are still hoping to get something done before the meeting according to Steve Carp of the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
Schmidt turned 26 a few weeks ago, and has two years of team control left. If the Golden Knights choose a one-year arbitration award, he would remain a restricted free agent again next summer and be eligible to repeat the process. Otherwise, any contract longer than two years would start buying out unrestricted free agent years, driving the price noticeably higher. Schmidt is coming off an interesting season where he averaged less than 15 and a half minutes a night but was dynamic and explosive every time he was given a bigger opportunity. He recorded 17 points in just 60 games, and could easily be the Golden Knights’ highest-scoring defenseman this season.
He’s coming off a contract that paid him just $875K last season, and it will be interesting to see how high the Golden Knights are willing to go and if they even want to lock him up long term. As we’ve looked at before, the team is clearly preparing itself to move several players at the trade deadline this year, and Schmidt would hold a lot of value on a short-term deal. If they don’t believe he can be part of the first winning Vegas team—which could happen sooner than you think—getting him under a reasonable cap number without buying out UFA seasons makes him a very appealing target around the league.
Vegas First Home Game Will Be On National Television
- NBC has announced its nationally televised schedule for the upcoming season, which includes three games each from the aforementioned Matthews and McDavid. The first Vegas Golden Knights’ home game will also be on national television, when they face off against the Arizona Coyotes on October 10th.
Vegas Notes: Marchessault, Neal, Perron, Sbisa
While it’s almost impossible to guess what the Vegas Golden Knight’s roster may look like from year-to-year for the forseeable future as general manager George McPhee has made it clear that trading for draft picks is his first and foremost goal, there are some who see trends already and, according to Sportsnet’s Luke Fox, don’t be surprised at all if forward Jon Marchessault is re-signed to a long-term deal next year.
Fox did a podcast with Las Vegas Review-Journal hockey writer Steve Carp (podcast on website), who says that Marchessault’s familiarity with former Florida Panthers’ head coach Gerard Gallant will make him want to stay in Vegas. The 26-year-old center will be joining his fourth team and has had his ups and downs after going undrafted early in his career. Before his 30-goal breakout season last year, he had only played in 49 career NHL games. He credits some of his success to Gallant, who was his head coach before being dismissed during the season. However, now that they are reunited in Las Vegas, he may look to stay where he is wanted.
- Carp also says that the two most valuable trade chips at next year’s trade deadline will be James Neal and David Perron. While Neal’s name comes as no surprise after putting up 54 goals in the past two years, Perron’s value is unknown. The 29-year-old wing is far from his 28-goal season back in 2013-14, but did manage to play a full season last year in St. Louis and put up 18 goals. The belief is that McPhee is hoping to get second-round picks for each player, although Carp says he probably would be willing to accept a third-rounder, if needed. The Golden Knights whose emphasis is on receiving picks between the first and third round need help for next year’s draft. After having six picks in this year’s draft (including three first-rounders), Vegas has just two for 2018, yet seven in 2019 and five picks in the first three rounds in 2020. They hope the trade deadline will net them those 2018 picks.
- Carp adds that one other issue with having 11 defenders currently on their roster is that nine of them are left-handed. Of all the defensemen on the roster, Carp says that McPhee wants to move Luca Sbisa, who has one year left on his deal, but at $3.6MM. “He’s 27 but he’s got a lot of money [owed to him],” Carp said. “I’m not sure if George didn’t overplay his hand a little bit in taking all these defencemen thinking he could flip ’em quickly for picks.”
- Neal is also the likely candidate to become team captain, according to Carp. While Vegas has played up Marc-Andre Fleury as the face of the franchise, goaltenders are not permitted to be “on ice” captains.
- Don’t expect the Golden Knights to sign one of the many veteran free agent forwards, according to Carp. A veteran does not fit in with the Golden Knight’s plans of developing youth or using veterans to trade for picks since no one seems to want players like Shane Doan or Jaromir Jagr now when they are available.
Upcoming RFA Arbitrations
Next week is the last week for scheduled RFA arbitrations. So far no team or player has managed to actually make it to arbitration. Rather, parties have settled in every arbitration case prior to the arbitration hearing date. The same fate may await the following six players who make up the final set of arbitration dates.
August 2nd: Calvin de Haan – New York Islanders
The New York Islanders defenseman had a $1.97MM cap hit last season, and put up 5G and 20A in 82 games.
August 3rd: Nate Schmidt – Vegas Golden Knights
The former Washington Capitals defenseman—selected by the Vegas Golden Knights in the NHL expansion draft—put up 3G and 14A in 60 games last season. His previous cap hit was $812K.
August 3rd: Nino Niederreiter – Minnesota Wild
The 24 year-old Wild forward had a previous cap hit of $2.66MM and scored 25G and 32A in 82 games last season. Expect a significant raise.
August 4th: Mikael Granlund – Minnesota Wild
The 25 year-old Wild forward put up even better numbers than Neiderreiter with 26G and 43A in 81 games. Expect a significant raise over his previous $3MM cap hit.
August 4th: Conor Sheary – Pittsburgh Penguins
Fresh off a career season and a Stanley Cup victory, Sheary looks for a significant raise over his $667K contract. Sheary put up 23G and 30A in 61 games last season.
August 4th: Nathan Beaulieu – Buffalo Sabres
The 24 year-old defenseman scored 4G and 24A in 74 games last season. His previous cap hit was an even $1MM.
Who Will Play Defense For The Vegas Golden Knights?
The Vegas Golden Knights are in a precarious situation. After drafting 30 players in this summer’s NHL expansion draft, the team is left with two goalies, thirteen forwards—and ten defensemen. They are clearly overloaded on the blue line, and common wisdom suggests that the team will part with at least two or three before the season starts. Who that may be, however, is unclear as the current defense corps does not contain a clear cut trade candidate.
The Golden Knights have a plethora of defensemen on the final year of their contracts, making them attractive at the deadline, but not necessarily attractive before the season starts. Below is a quick synopsis on the Golden Knights blue line and who may stay and who may go.
Jason Garrison: Age 32, $4.6MM, pending UFA
The highest-paid defenseman on the Golden Knights, Garrison represents the prototypical “stay-at-home” veteran defenseman old-school GMs like. Garrison scored 1G and 8A in 70 games for the Tampa Bay Lightning while averaging over 18 minutes a night on Tampa Bay’s second defensive pairing. His contract may prove unmovable though, especially to a team looking to make a playoff push.
Luca Sbisa: Age 27, $3.6MM, pending UFA
The Italian-born Sbisa scored 2G and 11A in 82 games for the Vancouver Canucks last season, while averaging just under 19 minutes a night. Sbisa entered the NHL with much fanfare in 2008-09, but has not fully met the scouts’ expectations. It is possible that Sbisa contributes more in an expanded role, as he was stuck on the Canucks third-pairing for most of the season.
Clayton Stoner: Age 32, $3.25MM, pending UFA
Stoner is looking for a bounce-back season after spending most of 2016-17 on IR. Stoner underwent abdominal surgery in late December 2016, and only managed to play 14 games last season. In those 14 games to start the season, Stoner put up 1G and 2A. Stoner has never been a prolific point-producer—his career high is 10 points—so the Golden Knights may find it hard to move his contract.
Brayden McNabb: Age 26, $1.7MM, pending UFA
McNabb has split time between the Buffalo Sabres and the Los Angeles Kings in his NHL career. His best season saw him put up 2G and 22A in 71 games in 2014-15. The Golden Knights hope that McNabb bounces back from last season’s diluted production, with McNabb scoring only 2G and 2A in 29 games wile averaging just over 15 minutes a night.
Jon Merrill: Age 25, $1.1375MM, pending RFA
Merrill scored 1G and 5A in 5 games for the New Jersey Devils last season, and averaging over 18 minutes a game. What separates Merrill from the above defensemen is his controlled contract situation and his youth. He might be a movable piece on those aspects alone.
Colin Miller: Age 24, $1MM, pending RFA
The former Boston Bruins defenseman has the most to prove on the Golden Knights. Only 24, Miller still has time to live up to his potential. He’ll have to improve on last year’s numbers, though. Miller scored 6G and 7A in 61 games while averaging just under 16 minutes a night. More opportunity for Miller should ramp up his production.
Deryk Engelland: Age 35, $1MM, pending UFA
The Golden Knights signed Engelland to a one-year deal after the expansion draft, so it is unlikely that he is traded before the season starts. He will most likely be the veteran presence in the locker room.
Shea Theodore: Age 21, $863K, pending RFA
Shea Theodore has big shoes to fill. The Golden Knights ostensibly thought enough of Theodore to be okay with making deals with the Anaheim Ducks to forego a defenseman like Sami Vatanen. Theodore scored 2G and 7A in 34 NHL games last season, but at age 21, he has time to develop into a more-integral player. The Golden Knights are unlikely to move Theodore.
Griffin Reinhart: Age 23, $800K, RFA in 2019-20
Reinhart may be moved by the Golden Knights, but that move might be down to the AHL. In 37 career NHL games since 2014-15, Reinhart has zero goals and only 2 assists. The former 4th pick overall in 2012 has yet to prove scouts right, but the Golden Knights saw enough in Reinhart to sign him to a two-year deal worth $800K a year.
Brad Hunt: Age 28, $650K, UFA in 2019-20
Hunt signed with the Golden Knights on July 1st, so it’s unlikely that he is traded before the season starts. Last season Hunt split time between the St. Louis Blues, Nashville Predators, and the AHL Chicago Wolves. Hunt put up 1G and 5A in 12 NHL games, and an additional 9G and 20A in 23 AHL games. The main knock against Hunt is his size—5’9″ and 175 lbs—but with the NHL evolving into a faster, more skill-based league, Hunt may find a permanent place on the Golden Knights blue line.
Nate Schmidt: Age 26, $TBD, current RFA
Schmidt remains the Golden Knights most interesting defensive asset, and thus could garner the most value on the trade market. Underused on the Washington Capitals blue line last season after the Capitals acquired Kevin Shattenkirk, Schmidt still put up 3G and 14A in 60 games while averaging just under 16 minutes a night. Schmidt received a bigger role in the playoffs, showcasing his potential for the upcoming season. But before all that, the Golden Knights have to sign Schmidt. Both parties have an arbitration date on August 3rd, but it is likely they come to a deal before then.
The Golden Knights need to move at least one defensemen before the season starts, unless they plan on moving some of their players to the AHL. No one player stands out as an obvious trade candidate, so GM George McPhee has his work cut out for his as the season approaches.
Performance Bonuses Around The League
In the NHL, there are only a few ways you are allowed to have performance bonuses included in your contract. One way is to be on an entry-level contract, of which almost every one contains some sort of incentive. Young players can earn either Schedule A or B bonuses for various performance markers, though the really big numbers are only usually given out to the very highest of draft picks. Even Mitch Marner for instance, drafted fourth overall in 2015 can only earn up to $850K each season and doesn’t have any Schedule B bonuses in his deal.
The other contracts that can include bonuses are more rare, and they’ll be the focus of this article. These can be given out to players who sign a one-year contract after they turn 35, or a one-year deal coming off a substantial injury (the qualifications for such an injury are that they have already played at least 400 games in their career, and spent at least 100 days on injured reserve in the final year of their previous contract). Many of these have been given out, and we’ll detail them here.
Radim Vrbata – Florida Panthers 
Vrbata was given a one-year deal with the Panthers this summer after a solid season with the Arizona Coyotes, and will earn $2.5MM in guaranteed salary. He also can earn a total of $1.25MM more through performance bonuses:
- $250K for 10th goal
- $250K for 15th goal
- $250K for 20th goal
- $250K for 45th point
- $250K for making playoffs
Mark Streit – Montreal Canadiens
Streit was given a $700K contract from the Montreal Canadiens just this week to add some extra depth to a defense corps that was losing Andrei Markov. His deal includes $300K of unknown performance bonuses, that could take the total contract to $1MM.
Johnny Oduya – Ottawa Senators
Oduya earned a one-year $1MM contract from the Ottawa Senators, and while it’s not clear where he fits in exactly on the blueline he could earn much more should he find a prominent role. The deal includes $1.25MM of performance bonuses:
- $250K for 41st game played
- $250K for 65th game played
- $250K if ranked in top-5 TOI for Ottawa defensemen
- $250K if ranked in top-3 TOI for Ottawa defensemen
- $250K for making playoffs
Chris Kunitz – Tampa Bay Lightning
Kunitz is looking for his fifth Stanley Cup this season with the Lightning, who gave him a one-year $2MM contract. The former Penguin can earn another $1MM in various unknown ice-time bonuses, likely tied to where he ends up among Lightning forwards.
Patrick Sharp – Chicago Blackhawks
Sharp is returning to his old stomping ground this year after the Blackhawks signed him to a one-year $800K contract, but there is no guarantee he plays much of the season. Sharp’s been hurt by several injuries the last few seasons, and because of it Chicago included a $200K bonus for playing just ten games this year.
Mike Cammalleri – Los Angeles Kings
Cammalleri was bought out by the New Jersey Devils this spring, only to immediately find a new home with the Kings on the west coast. His $1MM contract has an additional $200K in performance bonuses, though the exact details are still unknown.
Deryk Engelland – Vegas Golden Knights
When the Golden Knights signed Engelland after the expansion draft, they were bringing back someone who knew the city and could help their young players get acclimated to their new surroundings. They signed him to a one-year deal worth $1MM, but it also includes another $1MM in unknown performance bonuses.
Thanks to CapFriendly for many of the performance bonus details.
St. Louis Re-Signs Jordan Binnington
July 28th: The team has officially announced the contract.
July 22nd: While an official announcement from the team is still forthcoming, CapFriendly revealed last night that the St. Louis Blues have come to terms with goaltender Jordan Binnington on a new contract. It is expected that Binnington will sign a one-year, two-way deal worth $660K, just a tad over the minimum, at the NHL level.
When Binnington, a restricted free agent, chose not to file for arbitration despite being eligible to do so, it seemed that there was a mutual understanding between both sides and a new contract was just a matter of time. The 24-year-old has shown promise in short spurts, but really lacks the NHL experience or stretches of AHL dominance to have much leverage in negotiations. A third-round pick out of the OHL’s Owen Sound Attack in 2011, Binnington was named the OHL Goaltender of the Year in 2012-13 and expectations were high for his pro future. However, heading into his fifth pro season, Binnington has seemingly been progressing backwards. After posting a .916 save percentage and 2.35 GAA in 45 appearances in his first full season with the AHL’s Chicago Wolves in 2014-15, Binnington’s stats dropped sharply in 2015-16 and he ended up with just 32 appearances in 2016-17, having to share the net with Pheonix Copley (until he was traded) and Ville Husso. Both of those other goalies played significantly better than Binnington as well, with Copley earning an NHL call-up instead of Binnington. His lone NHL appearance remains a debut in relief of Brian Elliott at the end of a 2015 game, in which Binnington allowed a goal on four shots in the final 13 minutes.
As if Binnington’s NHL future and role for the Blues wasn’t unclear enough, St. Louis’ AHL situation further muddies the waters. It was announced in May that the Chicago Wolves would become the AHL affiliate of the expansion Vegas Golden Knights and then just recently, the AHL stated that it would be expanding to match the NHL’s new 31-team format, but not until the 2018-19 season. Unfortunately for the Blues, until then they will have to share the Wolves with Vegas, who needs the depth, but will surely favor their own prospects over a conference rival’s. This is especially true in net, where there are only so many starts to go around. The Knights have signed Maxime Lagace and Oscar Dansk this off-season as AHL depth behind Expansion Draft selections Marc-Andre Fleury and Calvin Pickard. That pair will likely get the lion’s share of minutes in net this season for the Wolves, with the Blues’ keepers as an afterthought. Given the solid tandem of Jake Allen and Carter Hutton in St. Louis and Husso essentially passing up Binnington on the organizational depth chart, it seems that Binnington will not only be fourth string for his NHL team, but also for his AHL team as well. It could be a long year for the former highly-touted prospect.