Afternoon Notes: Flyers, Panarin, Butcher
Even though the Philadelphia Flyers picked second overall in the 2017 draft, they weren’t that bad of a team. The Flyers actually finished the season with a 33-39-10 record, good enough for 88 points. Eleven teams finished worse in the standings than the Flyers. So, while the team wasn’t at the bottom of the Eastern Conference, the team did make some changes. They got a little younger, trading away 25-goal scorer Brayden Schenn for struggling Jori Lehtera, a 2017 first-round pick and a conditional first-round pick in 2018, they let defenseman Michael Del Zotto walk and they swapped goaltenders, replacing veteran Steve Mason with Brian Elliott. They also drafted second-overall pick Nolan Patrick in the draft this year.
However, Philly.com’s Sam Donnellon writes that it will be very difficult to measure in which direction the team will go this year. Even with many of their veterans returning, there are too many unknowns, including the defense could have two or more rookie defensemen, both Patrick and top prospect Oskar Lindblom could make the team out of training camp and their goaltending still looks to be less than stellar. Some of those points could be positives as Lindblom and Patrick could have big first seasons or Elliott could have a comeback season.
The scribe writes that a lot of the teams success or lack thereof will fall on third-year coach Dave Hakstol, who must figure out how to fit all the pieces together while developing the team’s emerging youth.
- In an interview with Artemi Panarin in a Russian newspaper, SB Nation’s Dave Melton got a translated copy, in which he states he was surprised to be traded from Chicago, but is eager to move on to Columbus and hopes for an even bigger role with the Blue Jackets. The fact that multiple players have said they would like to play alongside him including Alexander Wennberg, is what Panarin says is exciting about the move. “That’s why I see this trade as a springboard and not a pitfall.”
- While likely meaningless, Denver Post’s Mike Chambers tweeted a picture of unrestricted free agent defenseman and Hobey Baker Award winner Will Butcher at Denver International Airport on Friday, carrying a bag with the Buffalo Sabres logo on it. Chambers suggests that his first visit was to Buffalo. The Sabres, Vegas Golden Knights, Columbus Blue Jackets and the New Jersey Devils have been reported to have reached out to the free agent out of the University of Denver.
NHL Snapshots: Engelland, Pastrnak, Eichel
There were some confused faces a couple of months ago when fading veteran defenseman Deryk Engelland was one of the first players that the Vegas Golden Knights began to negotiate with when the team’s clock started to get the first-crack at negotiating with free agents. Afterall, the long-time veteran was never a blueliner to put up offensive numbers, but it was his defensive skills and speed that had begun to show signs of wear and tear in the last year or two.
Yet, the Golden Knights chose to ink the 35-year old to a one-year, $1MM deal instead of taking one of Calgary’s exposed players in the expansion draft. Perhaps the main reason is that Engelland has been an offseason resident of Las Vegas for the last 14 years, according to Alex Prewitt of Sports Illustrated. He initially spent two years in Las Vegas starting in 2003, playing for the ECHL’s Las Vegas Wranglers, where he eventually met his wife and then settled down in the city. His knowledge and experience with the fledgling sports city has proven valuable to many Vegas-bound players who are slowly arriving for the team’s inaugural season. The veteran has helped several players including defenseman Nate Schmidt and forward Erik Haula in getting settled before the season starts.
Engelland’s veteran presence and leadership skills should prove valuable to a stable of young defenseman such as Schmidt, Shea Theodore, Luca Sbisa, Brayden McNabb, Jonathon Merrill and Colin Miller amongst several others.
- Lyle Richardson of The Hockey News writes that despite an earlier rumor that Boston’s David Pastrnak might be traded which was quickly shot down by Bruins’ general manager Don Sweeney, the team’s hopes of signing him to a six-year deal for $6MM annually is not going to happen. Edmonton Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl‘s new eight-year, $64MM deal will only make negotiations with Pastrnak’s camp more challenging for the GM. Richardson writes that he believes Pastrnak’s camp may not ask for the $8.5MM AAV that Draisaitl received, but the Bruins must at least come up to a minimum of $7MM annually to get a long-term deal struck.
- Speaking of long-term deals, Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington writes that phenom Jack Eichel has made it explicitly clear that he wants to sign a long-term deal to stay in Buffalo. The scribe also writes that both sides want the extension completed before training camp starts next month. “I’ve made it clear that I want to be a Sabre. I want to be in Buffalo when we start winning,” Eichel reiterated. “I want to reward the city. It’s been two great years. I don’t want to go anywhere else.” After recent extensions for Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, the team must figure out where Eichel’s contract should fit. Harrington suggests a deal around $9MM per year is what Buffalo hopes to ink him to. The 20-year old is coming off a second 24-goal season, but this year he did it in fewer games, having missed 21 games due to a high ankle sprain suffered at the beginning of the season.
Will Butcher To Meet With Buffalo, New Jersey, Vegas
Though he’s not able to actually sign a contract anywhere until tomorrow, Will Butcher has already set up some visits. Mike Chambers of the Denver Post reports that the DU Pioneers’ captain will meet with the Buffalo Sabres, New Jersey Devils and Vegas Golden Knights among others tomorrow after becoming a free agent. Butcher has been previously linked—however tenuously—to the Toronto Maple Leafs, Detroit Red Wings, Pittsburgh Penguins and Chicago Blackhawks.
Butcher has said he won’t rule out Colorado in his free agency, but after being snubbed by the team (and specifically then head coach Patrick Roy) in 2015, still seems like a long shot to end up in Denver. Instead, two of his three teams are obvious choices if he wants to contribute right away. Buffalo and New Jersey both have their eyes set on the playoffs and need huge defensive upgrades if they’re going to get there, and Vegas is looking for core players to build their team around. The 22-year old Butcher will be signing a two-year entry-level deal wherever he signs, though bonus structures can vary.
He and he agent have been clear that immediate opportunity is not the only thing Butcher is looking for, and a winning organization will also be considered, but playing big minutes in your first two years is the only way to get a big raise after your entry-level deal expires. In New Jersey and Buffalo he’d be given that opportunity.
Even though Vegas is the new kid on the block and is probably after any premium free agent, there doesn’t seem to be a great fit there. The Golden Knights already have seven or eight NHL-level left-handed defensemen in their system, and if they can’t move any they’re already in for a roster crunch at the start of the year. Butcher will be waiver exempt when he enters the league and would be the easy choice for them to move to the minors.
Golden Knights Notes: Nickname Trademark, Haula
The Vegas Golden Knights can keep calling themselves that. According to The Las Vegas Review-Journal’s Steve Carp, the team won its appeal to have its nickname trademarked. Back in December, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office denied the team’s trademark request, pointing out that the Golden Knights trademark is also being used by The College of Saint Rose, a small school in New York.
According to Adam Candee of The Las Vegas Sun, while owner Bill Foley was never really in danger of being forced to change the team’s name, the ruling by the government should prevent or lessen any legal challenges down the road.
The team is not out of the woods yet. Despite getting their nicknamed trademarked, the Golden Knights did not get the same approval for its logo on their merchandise and gear. That request was suspended, pending further appeal. That will not stop the team from putting their logo on their merchandise, however, according to Carp.
“We’re happy,” team owner Bill Foley said. “We got what we wanted. We’ve got ‘Golden Knights’ for hockey and we knew it would work out. We’re not worried about the other issue. That will work itself out in time. But we’re not paying anyone anything.”
- The Golden Knights have high hopes for Erik Haula, who the team claimed in the expansion draft from the Minnesota Wild in June. The team hopes they can develop the 26-year-old center and former University of Minnesota hockey star, who has scored 29 goals in the past two seasons, according to Jessi Pierce of NHL.com. The hope is that Haula, who only managed to average 13:49 of ice time for the Wild will get more playing time in Vegas and produce more, possibly allowing the Golden Knights to move him at the trade deadline if all works out. Haula, who signed a three-year, $8.25MM deal in the offseason ($2.75MM AAV), is a good face-off specialist (he won 53.9 percent of his faceoffs last year) and is a good penalty killer, which could make him a solid trade asset if he can continue to improve.
Summer Predictions: Pacific Division
The hockey world is at a standstill now that August has rolled around. With all of the arbitration cases now decided and just a few restricted free agents left to sign, players and fans alike are counting the days until training camp starts. While there are still several names in free agency that could still help an NHL club, it seems like many are destined either for professional tryouts or late-summer deals after injuries strike.
So now we’ll get into our summer predictions. Before the start of the year we’ll be releasing a full season preview with projections for each club and the expected playoff teams, but first we’ll ask you to give us your take on how you believe each division will end up. We’ve already looked at the Metropolitan and Atlantic divisions, where the Pittsburgh Penguins and Tampa Bay Lightning are leading respectively. The Lightning didn’t even make the playoffs last season, but as we’ve examined before could have a bounce-back year if they can stay healthy. The upstart Maple Leafs are currently second, despite barely getting into the postseason last year.
Today, we’ll move to the other Conference and take a look at highly contested Pacific division. They’ll welcome in a new franchise this season, but could still be one of the most competitive groups in the NHL with four teams who have legitimate claims as a Stanley Cup contender. Choose who you think will win the division this season, and make sure to leave your full prediction for the division standings in the comments. As a proxy for the overall standings, we’ll be sure to publish these results alongside our own PHR rankings in September.
Who will win the Pacific Division?
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Edmonton Oilers 38% (407)
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Anaheim Ducks 29% (316)
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Calgary Flames 9% (99)
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Los Angeles Kings 9% (92)
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San Jose Sharks 6% (62)
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Vegas Golden Knights 5% (58)
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Vancouver Canucks 2% (25)
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Arizona Coyotes 2% (22)
Total votes: 1,081
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
Senators Passed Up Chance To Unload Ryan
One of the few players who was heavily anticipated to become a Vegas Golden Knight did not – Bobby Ryan. Despite an above-average playoff performance in the Senators’ heartbreaking Conference Final run, Ryan has vastly under-performed relative to his contract. Instead of coordinating a deal to unload that contract to Vegas, they instead lost Marc Methot, perhaps the second best defenseman on the team in that Cinderella story. Methot’s contract was not perfect, to be sure, but Ryan’s deal still looms large over the team for years.
It should be noted that Ryan has been a consistent 50+ point producer prior to this season, where he tallied only 25 through 62 contests. He’s been on pace for over 50 every year since he was a rookie. That said, his fall from grace in 2016-17was concerning and dramatic. His puck control seriously declined, his decision making faltered, and his production took a nosedive. With only 12 goals, and coming off a hot post-season, the time was ripe for GM Pierre Dorion to take advantage of Vegas’ unique situation and rid himself of a bad contract. Earning $7.25 MM AAV for the next five seasons, Ryan is the 36th highest paid forward in the league, and second-highest on the payroll behind Erik Karlsson.
For those who believe such an arrangement could not have been worked out, merely look at some of the contracts Vegas did take on. The essentially retired David Clarkson‘s $5.25 MM for the next 3 seasons was shipped out at the price of a first and a 2020 second. The perennially concussed Mikhail Grabovski was dealt for a similar package, which also protected some of the Islanders’ players. Vegas also didn’t shy away from taking veteran players with value – they selected James Neal (29 years old) from Nashville as well as David Perron from the Blues (29 years old). Certainly, with a little encouragement, George McPhee might have entertained the possibility of Ryan as a Knight. The price may have been steep, but Karlsson is in the prime of his career, while many players are looking for raises in the immediate future. Clearing Ryan’s albatross off the books may have gone a long way towards building toward a consistent contender.
Ultimately, Dorion decided against unloading a bloated contract in hopes that Ryan’s post-season revival was no mirage. With the UFA crop available, it’s difficult to blame the management for doubling down on the struggling winger. Five roster players will be UFA after this season, including Craig Anderson and Kyle Turris, while Mark Stone (RFA) has earned a raise. Karlsson will then be due a raise for 2019-20, as will five other forwards. The team will need to rely upon cost-effective ELC players and bargain contracts to continue holding pace with the rest of the Atlantic division. Only time will tell whether the Ryan decision was the correct one.
Cap Haven: Vegas Golden Knights’ Ability To Eat Bad Contracts
The Vegas Golden Knights are in a better situation now than any of the last few NHL expansion franchises. Sure, some would look at their roster and see a team that could easily finish last in the entire league, devoid of high-end talent or superstar potential; but as we’ve already discussed they had a heck of a first entry draft and are set to improve themselves again at the deadline this year. It could be a quick build for the league’s 31st franchise. 
Following Nate Schmidt‘s arbitration decision this weekend, in which the Golden Knights locked up another trade deadline asset for a reasonable price, the team currently projects to have around $5.6MM in cap space for the upcoming season. That number may not look very large, but it is actually quite deceiving. The Golden Knights have two players—David Clarkson and Mikhail Grabovski—who will never suit up for another NHL game and are destined for long-term injured reserve should the team need it. Their combined cap hit of $10.25MM would be available to the Knights if they acquired more salary, and there is where the team will really bring in the most value.
Clarkson and Grabovski are already examples of how eating a bad contract can be beneficial for a team. The Columbus Blue Jackets and New York Islanders both sent a first-round pick this year and a second-round selection in 2019 to move the contracts off the books (and decide which player would be selected in the expansion draft), leading to Vegas’ huge draft haul. Those deals are just the tip of the iceberg for what Vegas could pull off in the next few years. In July, Vegas owner Bill Foley made it clear that there was “no budget” for the club, and that they’d use financial muscle to vault them into the NHL spotlight right away.
Vegas also has eleven defensemen at the moment, and whether or not that is reduced by trade prior to the year or burying certain contracts in the minors, there is more space coming off the salary cap for the NHL team. Even a conservative estimate of an additional $3MM in created room puts the team at around $19MM in in-season cap space, a huge number they could use to their advantage. Recently we’ve looked at some of the worst contracts in the league, both in a per-point capacity and looking forward on long-term deals. Vegas is a clear landing spot for any of these under-performers.
The question then, becomes whether the team believes it can truly compete in the next five years. Acquiring bad contracts is fine if you’re committed to a long rebuild, one that will be starting to turn into a competitive window as the contracts expire. But if Vegas GM George McPhee believes that the trio of Cody Glass, Nick Suzuki and Erik Brannstrom will jump start the process enough to really compete before say, Dustin Brown‘s five remaining years expire then they have to be hesitant to acquire such a bad deal.
Vegas has just $11.6MM committed to active players for the 2019-20 season. Whatever you say about their decisions in the expansion draft, they’ve put themselves in a position to act as a sort of cap haven for teams around the league and stockpile young assets because of it. They already have fourteen picks in rounds 1-3 of the next three drafts, including a whopping seven selections in 2019. They’ll easily have even more than that at the end of the year, and more still the summer after that. Draft picks are like lottery tickets, but if you’re the only one playing you stand quite a good chance of winning.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Blue Jackets Look To Fill Center Hole
When center William Karlsson was sacrificed to the Vegas Golden Knights, the Blue Jackets lost a potent two-way tool up the middle. For a team who scores as much by committee as Columbus did last season, the team was bound to lose a valuable roster player. Although he only scored 6 goals and 25 points, he logged tough minutes against tough competition. It should be noted that, for all his defensive starts (62%), his advanced stats have been persistently sub-par. While Karlsson easily passed the eye test, his Corsi For was a lousy 43% in 2016-17, and that isn’t far from his career average. It may be a situation where analytics don’t tell the entire story, but Karlsson was actually trending backwards last season when looking at relative possession. Regardless, someone will need to step up internally to fill that roster void at the the 3rd line center position, as noted in an article by Mark Scheig of the Hockey Writers.
Scheig of course notes the work of rookie Lukas Sedlak, who performed admirably in his fourth-line duties. Sedlak could be ready to step up, but a lot will depend on how he performs in camp. He showed a bit of offensive touch, with 7 goals in 62 NHL contests, and marginal point totals in his Junior days. However, Sedlak was injured down the stretch and will need to re-assert himself into the lineup. He won’t be nearly as sheltered as he was last season, either. Notably, he’ll be competing against Pierre-Luc Dubois, the #3 pick from last year’s draft. Dubois finished out his last year in the QJMHL with the Blanville-Boisbriand Armada after being traded min-season. In an injury shortened campaign, he only posted 55 points in 48 games, a sharp step down from his 99-point performance in 62 games during his draft year. Dubois arguably regressed more than any other 2016 top-10 pick, and it might be unreasonable to expect him to dominate in camp. Dubois still has a heavy shot, solid hockey IQ and uses his size effectively, but consistency at the NHL level may be a difficult ask from a 19 year old returning from a down year.
Internally, other players can slot to the position. Scheig mentions that Boone Jenner can fill in when needed, but it’s no permanent solution. Going the free agency route at this late stage seems rather unlikely, as well. That really leaves coach John Tortorella in a tough position if Dubois fails to make an impact and Sedlak remains what he is. The team does have a glut of defensive prospects, but considering that they went out of their way to protect them from Vegas’ expansion sights, they may not be willing to part with a major piece just yet. The Blue Jackets may simply need to ride out some of the season with a hole in their top-nine if training camp doesn’t crown a clear replacement for Karlsson. Unlike many of the Vegas selections, this one could impact a team’s makeup noticeably. In an incredibly competitive Metropolitan division, a solitary step back could mean the difference between eyeing a division title or fighting for a wild card berth. Still, after adding the dynamic Artemi Panarin this off-season and watching a talented young defense gain valuable playoff experience, Jackets’ fans will likely not be overly concerned just yet.
Nate Schmidt Receives Arbitration Award
The Golden Knights now know what they will be paying defenseman Nate Schmidt for the next two years. Craig Morgan of Arizona Sports reports (Twitter link) that Schmidt has been awarded a two year, $4.45MM deal by an arbitrator. He will receive $2.15MM in 2017-18 and $2.3MM in 2018-19. He will now be eligible for unrestricted free agency in July of 2019.
The deal comes in quite a bit closer to what Schmidt’s representatives proposed than what Vegas offered. Back on Tuesday, the team offered a two-year pact worth a total of $1.95MM while Schmidt countered with a one-year, $2.75MM pact. Because it was Schmidt who filed for arbitration, the team got to choose between signing him for one season or two.
The 26-year-old was selected from Washington in June’s Expansion Draft after a strong late-season and playoff showing. In 60 regular season games, Schmidt had three goals and 14 assists while averaging 15:27 per night. He got into the playoff lineup when Karl Alzner went down and never looked back. Overall, Schmidt played in 11 postseason contests, collecting a goal and three assists while seeing his average ice time increase to 16:39 per game.
[Related: Golden Knights Depth Chart From Roster Resource]
With this award, the Golden Knights now have all of their players selected from expansion under contract. They still have more than $5.5MM in cap space remaining and considering their willingness to take on bad contracts in exchange for other assets, it will be interesting to see if GM George McPhee will go that route once again.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman (via Twitter) was first to report that the award had been made.
Pittsburgh’s Alternative Third-Line Center Options
While many teams across the NHL still have holes to fill before the puck drops on the 2017-18 season, no vacancy has received more attention than the third-line center slot for the two-time defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins. In fact, we’ve already written about it once before. However, the scenario has changed over the last few weeks, as the new contracts for RFAs Brian Dumoulin and Conor Sheary have left the Pens with just over $3MM in salary cap space. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette recently spoke with GM Jim Rutherford, who essentially stated that he does not plan to move out significant salary in a deal to acquire a new bottom-six center. What that means is that the Penguins are left with a much smaller margin to work with to acquire Nick Bonino‘s replacement.
So who will it be? Who it won’t be is easier to say. The pipe dreams of Colorado’s Matt Duchene or Carolina’s Jordan Staal are now all but over, as are more reasonable targets like Toronto’s Tyler Bozak or Dallas’ Radek Faksa now seem out of reach as well. The Vegas Golden Knights have not shown any indication that they are interested in moving forwards, so strike their group of suitable centers off the list as well. With each passing day, it seems a Matt Cullen return grows less and less likely as well.
What the Penguins are left with are a group of guys who fit their needs well: young, two-way centers on affordable contracts. The most common name bandied about is Detroit Red Wings forward Riley Sheahan. Sheahan struggled mightily in 2016-17 and is relatively expensive compared to some other available names at $2.075MM this season. However, Detroit desperately needs to shed salary and may have reached the end of the line with Sheahan. It could be a good match, with Sheahan very likely bouncing back on a far more talented Penguins team. Pittsburgh’s top target may be Arizona’s Jordan Martinook, who just resigned with the team, but is part of a Coyotes forward corps that is crowded with young talent. Martinook is an underrated two-way player and would fit in nicely with the Pens, but Arizona may not be keen to move him in a deal that Rutherford stated would not included salary players. The Coyotes have had their fill of picks and prospects and might be on the lookout for only veteran contributors at this point. The Penguins could turn to the Los Angeles Kings, who have great depth at center including Nick Shore and Nic Dowd. Both would fit the need nicely in Pittsburgh and come in at under $1MM. The 25-year-old Shore would be especially nice, as the team can retain RFA rights over him beyond 2017-18, but Dowd may be easier to acquire from a Kings squad that is not any closer to returning to the playoffs. One final option, staying out west, could be San Jose Sharks center Chris Tierney. It is rumored that the two sides are on rocky grounds, with Tierney signing just a one-year extension this summer, and could be looking for a trade. Tierney has proven to be a solid defensive force in the San Jose bottom six and could play the same role in Pittsburgh. The Sharks have done nothing this off-season and could see replacing Tierney with a Penguins forward prospect as at least some kind of roster shakeup.
Obviously, the available names are not of the sexy variety. The Penguins have been spoiled with center depth through their Stanley Cup years and fans are surely hoping they can find another Staal or Bonino. However, with little cap space to play with and a reluctance to change the current roster any further, this is what Rutherford is left with. Any of these guys could be a valuable piece on another strong Penguins team, as each plays a solid two-way game, but none are gonna be the big-name acquisition that many expected. Pittsburgh will be back in the Cup race again next year even if they do nothing at all and stick someone from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton at third-line center, so maybe the better question is not who will play there, but why does everyone care so much?