Evening Notes: Updated Draft Odds, Keith
With the season winding down, and teams vying for the better odds of winning the Rasmus Dahlin sweepstakes, the Ottawa Senators took another step in upping their chances at the top pick by losing to Detroit 2-0 this afternoon. With just four games remaining, the Sens are tied with Arizona for the second worst record in the NHL with 65 points. Buffalo still has the best shot at securing the rights for the first overall pick. The NHL released the odds two days ago and with several teams within a few points of one another, the “tank-a-thon” race could be the matter of a few points as opposed to Colorado’s historically bad season in 2016-17. As it stands, here are the odds for the ten worst teams through Saturday evening. Vancouver won in overtime, blowing a 4-1 lead late but still notching two points, which moved them from a 9.5% chance to 8.5%. Please note that Arizona, Buffalo, New York (Rangers and Islanders), Edmonton, and Montreal all play tonight, which could alter the landscape a bit.
Buffalo (18.5%) – 60 points – 5 games remaining
Ottawa (13.5%) – 65 points – 4 games remaining
Arizona (11.5%) – 65 points – 4 games remaining
Montreal (9.5%) – 68 points – 5 games remaining
Vancouver (8.5%) – 69 points – 3 games remaining
Detroit (7.5%) – 71 points – 3 games remaining
Chicago (6.5%) – 74 points – 3 games remaining
NY Islanders (6.0%) – 74 points – 4 games remaining
Edmonton (5.0%) – 74 points – 4 games remaining
NY Rangers (3.5%) – 75 points – 4 games remaining
- The Chicago Blackhawks are going to miss the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade, and some of that has to do with the Hawks inability to score goals. Duncan Keith has seen his share of struggles and is on pace to set an NHL record for the wrong reasons writes the Chicago Sun-Times Mark Lazerus. After taking 183 shots on net this season, Keith has only gotten the puck past a netminder once. Though his goal scoring has dropped off since he potted 10 back in 2014-15 when Chicago captured the Stanley Cup, nobody saw Keith’s performance going off the rails quite like this. Lazerus writes that if Keith doesn’t score in the final three games, Keith will set the NHL record for lowest non-zero shooting percentage. Lazerus adds that while Keith has been far and away the best defenseman for Chicago this season, he’s even fallen away from what has been his best play. Lazerus attributes this to being one of the only true top four defenseman on the team, something that has bogged down the two-time Norris Trophy winner.
Canucks Recall Thatcher Demko On An Emergency Basis
After giving highly-regarded prospect Adam Gaudette his NHL debut earlier this week, the Canucks could be set to do so with another of their promising youngsters, announcing (Twitter link) that they have recalled goaltender Thatcher Demko on an emergency basis.
The second-year pro has had quite a strong season at the AHL level, posting a 2.49 GAA and a .921 SV% in 42 games with Utica, both considerable improvements over his numbers from his rookie year (2.68 GAA and a .907 SV%). He has been considered one of the top goalie prospects in the league for several years dating back to his time back at Boston College.
It appears that Demko will be taking the place of Anders Nilsson on the roster for the time being. Rick Dhaliwal of NEWS 1130 notes (via Twitter) that Nilsson is sick. Given the nature of the recall, Demko will have to be returned to the minors once the emergency situation ends or be converted to one of their four post-deadline recalls.
Jim Benning Plans To Meet With The Sedin Twins In The Coming Days To Discuss Their Playing Future
Canucks GM Jim Benning plans to meet with pending unrestricted free agents Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin in the coming days to gauge their interest in returning for their 18th season with Vancouver, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports on TSN’s Insider Trading (video link). The twins have had good seasons, ranking second and third in team scoring despite seeing their ice time drop by more than three minutes per game.
While Benning may be hoping for a quick decision, that may not actually happen. Speaking with Postmedia’s Ben Kuzma Daniel noted that they plan to take their time with the decision and, perhaps most notably, see where the team is at and how it shapes up over the offseason. Even if they take a pay cut from their current $7MM contracts, it will still likely cost a considerable amount to keep both around and the Canucks will certainly want to know heading into free agency if they will have to allocate that money elsewhere.
Minor Transactions: 03/29/18
The Arizona Coyotes are playing the ultimate spoiler down the stretch, winning again last night against the Vegas Golden Knights to draw even with the Vancouver Canucks for last in the Western Conference. Arizona has played well of late, giving them some hope for next season as they look to build around a young core.
For the Coyotes and all the teams out of the playoffs, now is the time to experiment with players who might not have had a chance to prove what they can do earlier in the season. With that, we’ll keep track of all the minor transactions around the league right here.
- The Boston Bruins have sent Paul Postma back to the minors while recalling Tommy Cross under emergency conditions. Cross, the Providence Bruins captain, has played 66 games in the AHL this season and could be getting just a nice bonus for a good season. The 28-year old defenseman wasn’t on any of the pairings at morning skate, as both Zdeno Chara and Matt Grzelcyk took their normal spots.
- The Ottawa Senators have recalled Colin White under emergency conditions, and announced that Chris Wideman will not play again this season. White has played 15 games with the Senators this season, but failed to make enough of an impact to keep him in the lineup full-time. The 21-year old forward is still a big part of the Senators’ future, but hasn’t had the season many had hoped from him after his dominant career at Boston College.
- Josh Jooris has been recalled by the Pittsburgh Penguins as Derick Brassard battles injury, meaning Riley Sheahan probably moves back to the third line center position. Jooris was acquired from the Carolina Hurricanes for just this reason, giving the Penguins some added depth should they face injury.
- Pheonix Copley has been re-assigned once again, sent back to the minor leagues after a short recall. Copley has been filling in for the Washington Capitals when needed, but still hasn’t actually entered a game.
- Spencer Foo is coming up for the Calgary Flames, using their fourth post-deadline recall. Foo was signed out of the NCAA last spring, and has made an impact in the AHL during his first season of professional hockey. He’ll likely get a chance to make his NHL debut over the last week of the season, and compete for a full-time job next fall.
- With Semyon Varlamov (illness) and Jonathan Bernier (infection) both expected to be available on Friday night, the Avalanche have returned goaltender Spencer Martin to San Antonio of the AHL. Martin has not seen any action with Colorado this season but has appeared in 32 games at the minor league level, posting a 3.02 GAA and a .895 SV%.
Snapshots: Interference, Minnesota, Defensemen
The change in decision making on goaltender interference challenges has been approved, and will go into effect for tomorrow’s games. The final decision will now lie with the situation room, which will now include a retired official. According to Mark Spector of Sportsnet, the officials who will be on hand in the situation room will be a rotation of Don Van Massenhoven, Rob Shick, Bill McCreary, Paul Devorski and Stephen Walkom.
The interference rule has been the target of much frustration this season from coaches, players and fans alike, as there seemed to be no level of consistency in the decisions. That will hopefully improve under this new process, as the decisions will be handled by a much smaller group of people.
- After long-time head coach Don Lucia stepped down from his position at the University of Minnesota, it wasn’t clear who would be taking his place. We won’t have to wait any longer to find out, as the program announced that Bob Motzko would take over the duties after a 13-year stint with St. Cloud State. Motzko was an assistant with Minnesota when they won back-to-back National Championships in 2002 and 2003, and has built St. Cloud State into one of the most successful programs in the country. It will be interesting to see what this means for players like Jimmy Schuldt and Ryan Poehling, who both could decide to turn pro and leave St. Cloud State early.
- Shea Weber is healing faster than expected, and shouldn’t miss much of his offseason training after undergoing foot surgery earlier this month. Weber spoke to the media today, and admitted that he’d been playing through injury for most of the season just to try and help the team. The 32-year old defenseman should be ready for the start of the Montreal Canadiens training camp in a few months.
- Though it doesn’t come as much of a surprise, both Chris Tanev and Kevin Shattenkirk will not return this season for their respective teams. With just a handful of games left, there is no reason to rush back either defenseman from injury since both the Vancouver Canucks and New York Rangers are out of the playoff race.
Adam Gaudette Signs Entry-Level Deal With Vancouver Canucks
Now that his junior season with Northeastern is over, Adam Gaudette has decided to turn pro and sign his entry-level contract with the Vancouver Canucks. The deal is for three years, and he will join the Canucks right away, burning the first season in 2017-18.
Gaudette, 21, is the odds-on favorite to take home this year’s Hobey Baker Memorial Award as the best collegiate player in the country. Though his Northeastern squad was eliminated from the NCAA tournament this weekend at the hands of Michigan, his 60-point season did not go unnoticed. The fifth-round pick has developed into an all-around talent that can contribute defensively and create offensive opportunities on seemingly every shift. Vancouver GM Jim Benning released the following statement on Gaudette:
Adam has had a remarkable season and college career playing at Northeastern. He’s a very talented player and has shown an ability to score, make plays and contribute in all situations at the collegiate level. We’re excited to have him join our team and continue his development as a professional.
Leading the nation in scoring and potentially winning the Hobey Baker is an accomplishment to be sure, but Gaudette’s real text will come at the NHL level. He’s expected to get into some games before the end of the season, similar the the path taken by new teammate Brock Boeser last year. While there is no guarantee those two play together, they do seem like a fit that could work down the line. Though he scored 30 goals this season, Gaudette isn’t armed with the same type of pure goal-scoring ability that Boeser possesses, and instead could turn into more of a facilitator for his linemates by using his strength and speed to create room in the offensive zone.
Vancouver, like Buffalo who signed fellow NCAA superstar Casey Mittelstadt earlier today, is looking ahead to the draft lottery and next season already. While getting Gaudette into some NHL action to see what he can do is important, the team is hoping for much better things in 2018-19 when they can forget about this season and build towards the future. With top prospects Elias Pettersson and Olli Juolevi already in the pipeline, another top pick will make quite the bright future for the Canucks and Gaudette is certainly part of that.
Snapshots: Andersson, Chytil, Gaudette, Sikura
The New York Rangers rebuild might continue at a new level next week as NHL.com’s Dan Rosen writes that Rangers head coach Alain Vigneault, general manager Jeff Gorton and assistant general manager Chris Drury will talk later today about promoting 2017 first-round centers Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil.
Both first-round picks have fared well this season. Andersson, the seventh overall pick last year, started the season in the SHL, where he put up seven goals and seven assists in 22 games. He played in the World Junior Tournament and helped Sweden to a silver medal and then came to the U.S. and joined the Hartford Wolf Pack of the AHL. There he’s put up five goals and 14 points in 23 games. Chytil, on the other hand, started the season in New York and played two games before the team decided to assign him to Hartford. There in 44 games, Chytil, the No. 21 pick last year, has put up 11 goals and 20 assists.
Rosen said if the Vigneault, Gorton and Drury agree, the two prospects could be inserted into the Rangers’ lineup as soon as Monday.
- With the elimination of Northeastern University from the NCAA tournament, that could be good news for the Vancouver Canucks who will try to pry prized prospect Adam Gaudette from his collegiate team now that his season is over. In fact, Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal tweets that he’s heard from a source that says contract negotiations are expected to heat up tomorrow. The college junior was the Canucks fifth-round pick in 2015 and has put up 56 goals and 56 assists in his last two seasons with Northeastern. TSN’s Bob McKenzie also adds that the Canucks are expected to make a strong pitch to the 21-year-old center who is a top Hobey Baker Award candidate this year. Gaudette is expected to meet with his family/advisor soon.
- Also, as reported earlier today, Northeastern’s elimination also fuels the report that the Chicago Blackhawks and Dylan Sikura will be coming to an agreement soon. Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times has a new update in which a league source has confirmed that Sikura will be in a Blackhawks uniform on Thursday.
Minor Transactions: 3/24/18
As many team continue their quest to either clinching or closing in on a playoff spot, the NHL has a full slate of 12 games scheduled with many impact games upcoming. Teams like the New Jersey Devils, St. Louis Blues and the Florida Panthers all need victories to continue their playoff drives. The Vegas Golden Knights are also a win away from clinching their first-ever playoff spot today. Throw in multiple injuries and teams will be making many moves today to keep their rosters loaded for their playoff runs.
- The Florida Panthers recalled goaltender Harri Sateri from the Springfield Thunderbirds of the AHL this morning, according to FoxSports’s Steve Goldstein. With starter Roberto Luongo banged up with a minor lower-body injury, the team will turn to backup James Reimer. Sateri, who has served as the team’s emergency backup on multiple occasions this year has played in nine games with the Panthers, putting up a 2.92 GAA and a .911 save percentage.
- The Colorado Avalanche announced they have recalled goaltender Spencer Martin from the San Antonio Rampage of the AHL as veteran Jonathan Bernier is unable to play with an infection from a cut. While having been recalled several times this season, Martin has not appeared in a game for Colorado, who are fighting to clinch a playoff spot. The 22-year-old goalie has a 3.02 GAA and a .895 save percentage in 32 games for San Antonio.
- The Vancouver Canucks announced they have recalled defenseman Ashton Sautner from the Utica Comets of the AHL under emergency conditions today. The move was made after veteran defenseman Chris Tanev left Friday’s game in the third period with an undisclosed injury. This is the second time the 23-year-old Sautner has been recalled by Vancouver, but he has still not made his NHL debut yet. In 59 games, the blueliner has three goals and nine assists on the season. Sportsnet’s Rich Dhaliwal tweets that Sautner scored the game-winning overtime goal for Utica last night and could play his first NHL game in Dallas Sunday.
- CapFriendly reported that the San Jose Sharks have assigned defenseman Tim Heed to the San Jose Barracuda of the AHL after being recalled Friday. He has been bouncing up and down for much of the season.
- CapFriendly also reported that the Buffalo Sabres have recalled winger Justin Bailey from the Rochester Americans of the AHL on an emergency loan. Bailey has had some success in Buffalo, picking up three goals in 12 games.
NHLPA Approves Proposed Changes To Lottery Odds
In what has become an annual event, the NHL Players’ Association has yet again approved changes to the NHL Draft lottery odds. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that the NHLPA today signed off on a new lottery set-up recently submitted by the league. It marks the third season in a row that the odds have been altered.
The percentage chance that a team is selected to pick first, second, or third, as expressed by the number of ping pong balls present in the lottery draw, is dependent on where they finish in the overall league standings. Unsurprisingly, the changes to the odds first agreed upon in the Collective Bargaining Agreement began with the Edmonton Oilers and the painful realization that they had won yet another lottery in 2015 and would move up in the draft order to select Connor McDavid as their fourth first overall pick in a six year span. In response, the league significantly boosted the odds in 2016 toward the teams finishing last winning the lottery – expecting that Edmonton would no longer be in that range – as LeBrun notes that the 30th-place team had 20% odds of picking first two years ago. After the worst team in the NHL, the Toronto Maple Leafs, retained the top pick that year and selected Auston Matthews, the league and NHLPA again agreed to lessen the odds and insert more chance (and excitement) into the lottery. LeBrun indicates that last year the league’s worst, the Colorado Avalanche, had an 18% chance of holding on to the top pick. However, in a wild turn of events, three teams outside the bottom four won the lottery and moved into the top three draft slots, the biggest shift being the Philadelphia Flyers, who narrowly missed the playoffs, picking second. So, to perhaps combat another clean sweep, the odds have again been increased for those toward the bottom
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that the new odds of selecting first for the upcoming 2018 NHL Draft will be 18.5% for 31st, 13.5% for 30th, and 11.5% for 29th. With the addition of an extra non-playoff team, there is also a new distribution which in fact increases the odds for the last team to miss the playoffs, the 17th-place finisher, by a tenth of a percent to 1%. This is accomplished by lessening the odds for the middle-of-the pack lottery teams. It may not be a coincidence that the Oilers are part of that group. Nor may it be a coincidence that the current bottom three – the Buffalo Sabres, Vancouver Canucks, and Arizona Coyotes – are all teams that have been struggling for years and would certainly appreciate retaining their high picks. This yearly change in draft lottery odds seems to be very responsive to the results of each prior lottery, but that isn’t a bad thing. So long as both the league and NHLPA agree, it’s safe to assume that the changes have the best interests of competitive balance in mind.
Coyotes-Sabres: Lottery Odds On The Line
Normally, this time of year brings match-ups with major playoff implications as teams jockey for position atop conferences and divisions or fight for the final wild card spots. Instead, all eyes will be on the KeyBank Center tonight as the puck is about to drop on a battle of the league’s two worst teams, the 31st-place Buffalo Sabres hosting the 29th-place Arizona Coyotes. Both teams will have just nine games remaining after tonight’s result and the loser (winner?) may very well end up with the worst record in the league and the best lottery odds for the top pick in the 2018 NHL Draft and the right to draft wunderkind defender Rasmus Dahlin.
It’s a strange time for two of the league’s least-successful to go head-to-head, as the argument is that the worse team tonight is actually the beneficiary, but both teams are playing some of their best hockey of late. The Coyotes, dead in the water at the midway point and on pace for a measly 46 points this season, have had a resurgence in the second half. The team is 12-5-2 since February 8th, with wins over divisional foes in playoff spots in the Anaheim Ducks, Los Angeles Kings, and San Jose Sharks. They have already far surpassed 46 points, hitting 59 on the year with their sixth win in their last ten games on Monday night. Not only that, but Arizona has actually climbed out of the basement of the league, something most did not expect. Filling that bottom-feeder role now are the Sabres, but Buffalo too has been hot, with six wins in their last 11 games. It’s the first time all season that Buffalo has had less losses than not in a ten-game span, and that’s included wins over three of the league’s best teams – the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, and Toronto Maple Leafs.
Neither team looks ready to lose tonight, but one has to and it could be the blow that knocks them out of their winning ways. Buffalo faces a tough stretch to close out the year, with road games in Tampa, Florida, Nashville, New York and twice in Toronto. The rest of their contests are home against division rivals. Tonight could be the last time the Sabres are favored by anyone to win in 2017-18. Meanwhile, Arizona is about to be run the gauntlet. Tonight’s game in Buffalo begins a road trip that goes through Carolina, Florida, Tampa, Vegas, and L.A. before they return home to face the playoff-hungry Blues and Ducks in two of their final four games. The one bright spot left on the Coyotes schedule is a trip to Vancouver on April 5th. With neither team facing a very winnable schedule, tonight’s result really could determine who ends up with the best lottery odds when the season ends.
Speaking of the Canucks, they’re not to be forgotten in this equation either. Vancouver has lost seven straight and now sit in 30th, with as many points as Arizona but with one fewer game left to play. However, the Canucks face Chicago tomorrow night and Edmonton twice, as well as the Coyotes, in this final stretch and seem more likely to pick up some extra points as the season winds down.
Yet, like Buffalo and Arizona, Vancouver likely won’t mind finishing last either. The prize, Dahlin, would be a major addition to any team, but especially to any of these three struggling franchises. Buffalo, currently in the best position to win the lottery, is sorely lacking in high-end defensive prospects outside of players already on the roster like Rasmus Ristolainen and Brendan Guhle. Dahlin would be an upgrade not just to any of their current prospect blue liners, but quite possibly their veterans as well. Vancouver continues to wait for Olli Juolevi to be NHL-ready and have a long-term project player in Jack Rathbone, but Dahlin would look awfully nice alongside Chris Tanev and Troy Stecher next season and beyond. Finally, there’s Arizona, where many have projected Dahlin to land all season. It could be the perfect spot, as fellow countryman and talented defender Oliver Ekman-Larsson could mentor Dahlin just long enough before the Coyotes to trade him before he hits free agency in 2019. Like Buffalo, Arizona lacks difference-makers on the back end in the pipeline and could desperately use Dahlin. He could be a fit for a long time with Jakob Chychrun.
Who will end up with Dahlin? It may not be Buffalo or Arizona. It could be Vancouver, or it could be any of the other 12 teams who miss the playoffs, but win the lottery. However, the top odds and the race for the worst record in the league weigh heavily on tonight’s result. Stay tuned.