Morning Notes: Maple Leafs, Rangers, Prospects
The Toronto Maple Leafs are comfortably in a playoff spot in the Atlantic Division, sitting fifteen points up on the Florida Panthers. As they try to catch Boston or Tampa Bay down the stretch for home ice advantage, head coach Mike Babcock clearly wants some help at the trade deadline. As Chris Johnston of Sportsnet reports, Babcock has let “the people who need to know, know” what he’d like to see added.
In his latest 31 Thoughts column for Sportsnet, Elliotte Friedman mentions three names on the Maple Leafs that could easily be removed in the next few weeks instead. Josh Leivo, who has asked for a trade after being passed over again for playing time, Nikita Soshnikov, who will force the Maple Leafs into a roster move once he completes his conditioning stint, and Matt Martin. Martin has two more years on his contract at $2.5MM per season, but hasn’t been able to crack the lineup recently and could be moved to create some roster flexibility.
- As the New York Rangers prepare to sell off some assets at the trade deadline, they got some good news on the injury front today. While Marc Staal was absent from practice due to a neck injury, Jimmy Vesey (concussion), Pavel Buchnevich (concussion) and Chris Kreider (blood clot) all skated. Kevin Shattenkirk, who underwent knee surgery a few weeks ago, is now off crutches. Amazingly, the Rangers are still just three points out of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, and with some returning players and new blood there is no telling what could happen in the latter part of the season.
- Craig Button and TSN have released their ranking of the top-50 prospects that have already been drafted, with Elias Pettersson coming in at the very top. The Vancouver Canucks first-round pick has been arguably the best player in the SHL this season with 45 points through 35 games and looks poised to make an impact in North America as soon as next season. Beyond that is Eeli Tolvanen at #2, despite falling nearly out of the first round entirely last June. Tolvanen turned a disappointing decision at Boston College into an opportunity, and has broken nearly every record for an 18-year old player in the KHL. The entire list is interesting, and is quite different than Corey Pronman’s ranking at The Athletic (subscription required) which had Casey Mittelstadt in the top spot.
Pittsburgh Penguins Third-Line Center Search Cooling Off
The Pittsburgh Penguins and GM Jim Rutherford made no attempt to hide the fact that they were after a third-line center early in the season. Rutherford admitted several times that he had certain candidates in mind, and eventually went out and added Riley Sheahan from the Detroit Red Wings. Sheahan wasn’t the “impact” player that Rutherford had spoken about, but he was at least a temporary fit for the team as they figured out what to do next.
Many still believe the Penguins will add that third-line player at the trade deadline, bumping Sheahan down a spot and away from Phil Kessel‘s unit. Adding more skill would certainly be beneficial, or at least it seemed so before a recent surge in Sheahan’s production—four assists in five games. Now, as Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes in his latest 20 Penguins Thoughts, they may not add a third-line center after all, instead making a smaller deal to strengthen the position.
Mackey suggests that Sheahan’s comfort level with Kessel has improved lately, and he points to Matt Cullen as the obvious answer to slide into the lineup. Cullen, who signed in Minnesota last offseason, is Mackey’s pick to “be a Penguin by February 26, maybe sooner.”
Cullen is on a one-year deal with the Wild worth as much as $1.7MM depending on performance bonuses tied to playoff success, and obviously has a great number of ties to the Penguins organization after winning back to back Stanley Cups with them the previous two years. Though his minutes have decreased even further this season, he could still offer the same dependable presence on the fourth line.
The Penguins certainly don’t have the cap space presently that would facilitate a larger move. With just under $2MM of deadline cap space (as per CapFriendly) a move for an impact player would likely require salary heading the other way. While there are obvious options for that—defenseman Ian Cole being one of them—removing players in the middle of a second-half run isn’t ideal. The Penguins have climbed to within four points of the Metropolitan-leading Washington Capitals, and have their eyes set on the playoffs once again. Whether that will be with a new exciting player skating on the third line, or a more experienced familiar face is still to be seen.
Deadline Primer: Vancouver Canucks
With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? Next up are the Vancouver Canucks.
The Vancouver Canucks found themselves trying to rebuild while continuing to hold onto some of their veteran forwards, namely Henrik Sedin and Daniel Sedin. The team hoped it could rebuild on the fly this year with new head coach Travis Green and early on, the Canucks started strong, but injuries to key players such as Bo Horvat and Sven Baertschi prevented the team from continuing their success. Instead, the Canucks have dropped in the standings and find themselves ready to rebuild for another year.
Record
21-24-6, tied for 6th in Pacific Division
Deadline Status
Seller
Deadline Cap Space
$4.7MM – full-season cap hit, 2/3 retained salary transactions, 45/50 contracts per CapFriendly
Draft Picks
2018: VAN 1st, VAN 2nd, VAN 3rd, VAN 5th, VAN 6th, VAN 7th
2019: VAN 1st, VAN 2nd, VAN 3rd, VAN 4th, VAN 5th, VAN 6th, VAN 7th
Trade Chips
The Canucks have two key trade chips in defenseman Erik Gudbranson and veteran winger Thomas Vanek, but whether the team will move them is unknown. One issue that confuses things is the Sedin twins potential interest in returning for another season next year. If the twins want to come back, the team may be more willing to hang on to their veterans to give the Sedins another year with the potential of making the playoffs.
The team has said they are considering extending Gudbranson, but rumors are that no negotiations have begun, which suggests that Gudbanson is very likely to move to another team unless they start negotiating now. A solid, but unspectacular defenseman, he will never live up to being the third-overall pick in 2010. He would be a quality addition to a team that needs help in that area. If the team wants to move Vanek, they shouldn’t have too much trouble as the 34-year-old Vanek is putting up solid numbers and already has 14 goals. He could be valuable to a team in need of a veteran scorer. In neither case would they be likely
Five Players To Watch For: D Alexander Edler, C Sam Gagner, D Erik Gudbranson, D Christopher Tanev, LW Thomas Vanek
Team Needs
1) Offensive Defensemen: The team truly lacks any offensive defenseman and it shows. Edler, the team’s top scoring defenseman is only the ninth leading scorer on the team. Their power play has little, if any support from their defenseman and the team has few defensive prospects that can put points on the board. A prospect with a good shot and the ability to put the puck in the net might be exactly what the team needs.
2) Prospects/Picks: What Vancouver wants more than anything else is future talent. Vancouver actually has quite a bit of young talent already coming through the system and wouldn’t mind even more. Last year, the team picked up several prospects including Jonathan Dahlen, Nikolay Goldobin and a conditional pick in moving out Alexandre Burrows and Jannik Hansen. If the team can add some picks or another prospect whether it’s an offensive defenseman or more wing help, the team should be better prepared for the future.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Western Notes: Edmonton’s Future, Labanc, Gaudette, Crawford
Expect a long, boring summer for the Edmonton Oilers. After three offseasons in which the team made a “blow-up” trade, you can rest assured that it won’t be the case this summer, writes The Athletic’s Allan Mitchell (subscription required). The team, who in each of the last three years made questionable trades in hopes of sparking the team, including the 2015 trade of acquiring defenseman Griffin Reinhart (for a first-round pick which turned out to be Matthew Barzal), the 2016 trade of sending off No. 1 overall pick Taylor Hall and the 2017 trade of trading winger Jordan Eberle, should be quiet this season.
Mitchell writes that Oiler management has made it clear that the team will just be making quiet moves as they attempt to re-tool their roster to fix the teams’ struggles this season. He includes a list of team needs, which includes a first-line shooter, a top-four defenseman, a third-line center, a backup goaltender and a penalty-killing forward. He writes the team’s lack of cap space, after the extension of Connor McDavid kicks in, will not allow them to be big players in the free agent market, which will force the team to look for quality low-cost free agents and the young players from within their own organization.
Jesse Puljujarvi is the most likely candidate to continue to shoot next to McDavid, while Jujhar Khaira might make a quality third-line center if the team wants to keep Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as their second-line center and move Leon Draisaitl to the first line. Also, don’t forget about 2017 first-rounder Kailer Yamamoto, who played nine games for Edmonton this year. He continues to thrive with the WHL’s Spokane Chiefs and might be ready to take a bigger role next season.
- Kevin Kurz of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that despite the injury to veteran center Joe Thornton, the San Jose Sharks’ top line continues to be highly efficient with winger Kevin Labanc in his place. The 22-year-old Lebanc has two goals and four assists in those four games since Thornton went down. He especially seems to be thriving on the power play. “Just feel confident,” Labanc said. “A lot of great players around me, too. … We break in cleanly, and I think that’s the big thing on our power play, is breaking in on the entry, settling things down, and once we do, just do our thing. We work well together.”
- The Vancouver Canucks are going to try to do everything they can to ink Northeastern star center Adam Gaudette after his season is over. While there is no guarantee that will happen, Ryan Biech of The Athletic (subscription required) goes into deep analysis of Gaudette’s game and says he sees similarities between him and former Canuck Ryan Kesler. Gaudette has already scored 57 goals and 64 assists in three seasons so far for Northeastern, could be a valuable piece to the team’s puzzle if the team can sign him.
- Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Potash tweets that Chicago Blackhawks goaltender Corey Crawford continues to make progress towards a return. The netminder worked out on the ice for the first time since suffering a head injury in December. Coach Joel Quenneville said Crawford is expected to work out again Sunday. The team needs the veteran goalie more now than ever as they sit outside the playoffs and need a solid run if they want to get back in.
The Odds Of Drafting A Superstar And The 2018 NHL Draft
Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Tyler Dellow went to work trying to figure out how the Ottawa Senators could maximize their trade return (subscription required) for Erik Karlsson, should the team decide to move the all-world defenseman prior to the NHL Trade Deadline on February 26th or at least before the 2018 NHL Entry Draft on June 22nd. Dellow surmised that in order to get anywhere near a fair return for Karlsson, Ottawa would need to acquire draft picks that could give them the best chance of finding a “franchise cornerstone” to replace him. The best-case-scenario for the Sens would obviously be to land the #1 overall pick in the lottery and the opportunity to draft the consensus top pick, Karlsson clone Rasmus Dahlin – a scenario that would not even require moving Karlsson. However, with the Arizona Coyotes and Buffalo Sabres likely having better lottery odds and another 12 teams having a chance at the top pick as well, its unlikely that the Senators choose first overall. Dahlin’s generational talent also means the lucky team that lands #1 isn’t moving it, even for Karlsson. So what then is the chance of finding a superstar in the draft? Dellow’s analysis produced these results:
- First pick: 90 percent,
- Second pick: 60 percent
- Third or Fourth pick: 15 percent
- Picks 5-20: 5 percent
- Picks 21-30: 2 percent
- Picks 31-60: 1 percent
- Picks 61+: .07 percent
While there is a considerable drop-off from the first pick to the second and the second to the third, it’s clear that picks #2 and #3 still hold immense value. Dellow goes on to describe the infrequency with which those picks are moved, citing Alexei Yashin-for-Jason Spezza and the drafting of Henrik and Daniel Sedin are rare recent examples. Dellow’s thesis continues that the current Vancouver Canucks could be a rare team willing to part with a high pick, if it meant landing Karlsson.
However what if Karlsson isn’t traded by the Draft – a situation that is far more likely than the media would make it out to be – would the normally untouchable top three picks be back off the table? Obviously, the results of the draft lottery matter immensely and the #1 pick will surely not be moved this year. More likely than not, #2 is going nowhere as well. Yet, the status of the 2018 draft class leads to much intrigue over the #3 pick, which historically has a 15% chance of landing a superstar. Unlike past years, there is no consensus second-best player in 2018. In some order, Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick were going 1-2 in 2017, as were Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine in 2016, and no one was going right behind Connor McDavid other than Jack Eichel in 2015. This year’s crop offers a situation unlike the last few seasons, wherein Dahlin is guaranteed to go first overall – and will be off the draft board of everyone but the lottery winner before the draft even begins – but the following picks are unpredictable. At #2, it could be Russian sniper Andrei Svechnikov, sleek Czech forward Filip Zadina, big, skilled Americans Brady Tkachuk or Oliver Wahlstrom, or a D-needy team with the second pick could even go off the board for a defenseman.
The decision on the second overall pick in 2018 will undeniably result in the top player on many teams’ board being selected, but the top player on many other teams’ board falling to #3. If that team at third overall was hoping to take the player selected at #2, now things could get interesting. According to Dellow’s results, the team at #3 has now lost a 45% chance of finding their next franchise player, but could trade out of the pick and still end up with one (or more) top 20 pick(s), each with a 5% chance of becoming a star, as well as possibly an established pick or player. If you put trust into a model like Dellow’s, a deal like this becomes much more about math and odds than simply taking the risk of trading back out of disappointment with the draft order.
Going back to the Karlsson-to-Vancouver hypothetical, imagine that the Canucks land the #3 overall pick while the Senators have a pick in the 5-20 range, either by the lottery or an additional pick from an upcoming trade. Vancouver hypothetically wanted Zadina, who went #2, while the top player on Ottawa’s board was Tkachuk (or maybe a defenseman like Adam Boqvist). Vancouver could, as Dellow proposes, offer the Sens the third pick – and a 15% chance at a star – and a prospect like Olli Juolevi, the fifth overall pick in 2016 – who holds a 5% chance of becoming a star himself – as part of a larger package for Karlsson and a first. Ottawa nets a 20% chance of adding a cornerstone player, including at least one potential replacement on the blue line, and Vancouver holds onto a 5% chance of finding a star of their own with the later first rounder. The 10% loss for Vancouver is more than made up by the gain of a bona fide star in Karlsson. Could a deal like this happen? For sure. Will it? Probably not, but Dellow’s analysis of draft pick values and a seemingly volatile draft board in 2018 helps to illuminate the possibilities of some fascinating, unprecedented deals early on at the 2018 Draft.
Sedins Won't Decide On Playing Future Until After The Season
- Although there has been plenty of speculation regarding Canucks forwards Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin and their playing future beyond this year, GM Jim Benning confirmed to Ben Kuzma of the Vancouver Province that the twins will not make a decision until after the season. The sides met on Wednesday and while Benning was hoping for a firm answer, the Sedins weren’t willing to commit just yet. Kuzma adds that Benning would like to sign both beyond this season but a new deal would certainly have to come cheaper than the $7MM cap hit that both are currently carrying.
Trade Candidate: Erik Gudbranson
With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.
The Vancouver Canucks have been a fun story this year, thanks to the emergence of Brock Boeser as a legitimate star in his rookie season. Brand new head coach Travis Green had the team off to a good start before an injury to Bo Horvat seemed to suck all the energy out of his group, who now sit 14th in the Western Conference and in danger of falling completely out of the playoff race. Erik Gudbranson is scheduled to hit free agency as one of the youngest players on the market, meaning the Canucks have a big decision to make in the next few weeks on whether his time is up in Vancouver.
Contract
Gudbranson is on a one-year, $3.5MM contract. He will be a UFA in July, and holds no trade protection.
2017-18
After missing 52 games last season due to wrist surgery, Gudbranson has returned this year to a diminished role. His minutes have been limited, trailing newcomers Michael Del Zotto and Derrick Pouliot in terms of ice time, and has lost his role as one of the teams few key penalty killers.
He was one of the last players in the league to record a point this season, not getting on the scoresheet until December 19th. Lately, he’s been taken out of the lineup thanks to back spasms, not playing since the middle of January.
Still, his rough and tumble game has been well-liked by some in the organization, with GM Jim Benning coming out recently saying that he plays a different—but still necessary—style of game than many of the Canucks other defensemen. The Canucks are still trying to get Gudbranson under contract going forward, meaning despite his offensive struggles he’s clearly not on thin ice with the organization.
Season Stats
32 GP, 1 goals, 2 assists, 3 points, -2 rating, 31 PIM, 29 shots, 17:44 ATOI, 43.0 CF%
Potential Suitors
The market for Gudbranson is difficult to gauge, because it relies heavily on personal opinions about his play style and value to an organization. In almost every front office in the league there will be an analytics department telling the team not to acquire him, but deadline acquisitions are often more about depth and physicality to prepare for the playoffs.
Toronto is often listed as the most likely destination for the defenseman, mostly due to their perceived lack of depth at the position. The team might be changing that notion with the impressive debuts of some young players, and they still have right-handed Roman Polak to fill a similar role.
One interesting possibility, though it most likely won’t come at the trade deadline, is a return to the Florida Panthers. It’s clear that GM Dale Tallon wasn’t pleased with the team trading Gudbranson to Vancouver while he wasn’t in charge, and even tried to get him back in a deal that was eventually blocked by Jason Demers‘ no-trade clause. Though it might take free agency to get him back, the Panthers likely remain one of his biggest fans.
Likelihood Of A Trade
Despite wanting to keep him in Vancouver, the two sides reportedly haven’t begun conversations on an extension yet. Benning has admitted that if a deal can’t be reached by the deadline, he’ll have to seriously consider selling him to the highest bidder, making this a simple time crunch that seems destined for a resolution through trade.
Where Gudbranson ends up is still anyone’s guess, but signing him long-term in Vancouver seems like a mistake as the team continues their rebuild. Even for a modest return, a team as far out of the playoffs as the Canucks will seriously consider moving him to collect another asset, just like the ones they gathered from moving Jannik Hansen and Alex Burrows last year.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Canucks Prefer To Re-Sign Erik Gudbranson
The Vancouver Canucks were in a strange situation this past summer when it came to extending restricted free agent defenseman Erik Gudbranson. After trading away Jared McCann and a pair of draft picks to the Florida Panthers to acquire Gudbranson the off-season prior, the big rearguard was held to just 30 games in 2016-17 due to injury. Still unsure of what kind of player Gudbranson could be in Vancouver but cognizant of what it took to get him, the Canucks gave the 2010 #3 overall pick an identical contract to the one inherited from Florida: one year and $3.5MM. Fast-forward to today, and the situation is still unclear for the Canucks. Gudbranson will now be an unrestricted free agent this off-season and the struggling squad faces pressure to get what they can for him by the trade deadline. However, even in another limited season – having missed 17 games due to injury and suspension – Gudbranson has shown his capable defensive game and, at 26, still has room to grow. So what do they do?
Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre has an idea. MacIntyre spoke to GM Jim Benning, who made it clear that they would like to extend Gudbranson if possible. “I know he’s had some ups and downs, but until he got hurt he was playing well for us. As long as a player can play in today’s game, you’re always going to need a defencemen who can play physical, especially in our division. There’s always going to be room for a guy like that”, Benning stated, summing up the value that Gudbranson brings.
However, an extension is not done yet and the clock is ticking toward the February 26th NHL Trade Deadline. If a deal cannot be struck, the rebuilding Canucks have no choice but to trade Gudbranson and hope that they get a good return for him. Gudbranson’s agent, Mark Guy, said as much in talking to Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal, ackowledging that the season will likely either end with an extension or with a trade. Benning knows that his job may be on the line and needs to get whatever he can for Vancouver’s impending UFA’s. A trade also wouldn’t rule out the team simply bringing Gudbranson back in free agency too, perhaps adding to the intrigue of shipping him out in the next month. Benning may prefer to re-sign Gudbranson, but it still seems like all signs point to a trade.
Petr Nedved Could Come Out Of Retirement To Face Jaromir Jagr
The #2 overall pick in the 1990 NHL Draft could be making his return to pro hockey to face an old friend. Czech Second Division team HC Benatky nad Jizerou announced today that 46-year-old Petr Nedved could suit up for the team this weekend after four years away from the game. The occasion? The possible return to Czech hockey for Jaromir Jagr, who was assigned to Czech Second Division team HC Kladno yesterday.
Jagr is expected to suit up for Kladno – a team he is a part owner of – for the remainder of the season in hopes of winning the team a spot in the First Division next season. However, it remains to be seen if he will be ready to go by Saturday night, when Kladno takes on Benatky.
If Jagr, 45, is feeling physically healthy and mentally ready to go on Saturday, he will face off with a fellow countryman and long-time teammate and competitor in Nedved. Jagr was selected just three spots behind Nedved in the 1990 draft, with the former going to the Vancouver Canucks and the latter famously joining the Pittsburgh Penguins, who would win the next two Stanley Cups. Nedved would later join Jagr on the Penguins for two years beginning in 1995 and the pair would also reunite with the New York Rangers in 2003-04. Overall, Jagr and Nedved were teammates or competitors in the NHL for 16 years before Nedved returned to the Czech Republic in 2007. Nedved hung up his skates for good in 2014 after six seasons as the captain of Czech First Division squad HC Bili Tigri Liberec.
Four years later, Nedved is ready to lace ’em up again and, hopefully, he’ll get the chance to do so and face off against old friend Jagr one last time in a reunion of two of the best Czech players of all-time.
Final Standings Projections At The Mid-Way Point
It’s impossible to tell exactly how the remainder of the 2017-18 season will shake out, but with the NHL set to resume it’s unofficial second half of the season tomorrow, there’s no better time to look at the current state of the league. The final standings could look much like they do now or they could differ greatly, depending on whether or not the status quo shifts over the next few months. The trade deadline, rookie wall, and the health rigors of an 82-game season can all change the course of the campaign for many teams, but as of now, this is what the final standings and 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs will look like:
Atlantic Division
- Tampa Bay Lightning – 119 points
- Boston Bruins – 115 points
- Toronto Maple Leafs – 98 points
- Detroit Red Wings – 79 points
- Montreal Canadiens – 77 points
- Florida Panthers – 77 points
- Ottawa Senators – 68 points
- Buffalo Sabres – 62 points
Metropolitan Division
- Washington Capitals – 105 points
- New Jersey Devils – 96 points
- Columbus Blue Jackets – 95 points
- Philadelphia Flyers – 94 points
- Pittsburgh Penguins – 92 points
- New York Islanders – 90 points
- New York Rangers – 90 points
- Carolina Hurricanes – 87 points
Eastern Conference First Round Playoff Match-ups:
#1A Tampa Bay vs. #2W Pittsburgh
#1M Washington vs. #1W Philadelphia
#2A Boston vs. #3A Toronto
#2M New Jersey vs. #3M Columbus
Central Division
- Nashville Predators – 113 points
- Winnipeg Jets – 108 points
- St. Louis Blues – 101 points
- Dallas Stars – 98 points
- Colorado Avalanche – 97 points
- Minnesota Wild – 95 points
- Chicago Blackhawks – 89 points
Pacific Division
- Vegas Golden Knights – 116 points
- San Jose Sharks – 101 points
- Calgary Flames – 97 points
- Los Angeles Kings – 95 points
- Anaheim Ducks – 93 points
- Edmonton Oilers – 79 points
- Vancouver Canucks – 74 points
- Arizona Coyotes – 54 points
Western Conference First Round Playoff Match-ups:
#1P Vegas vs. #2W Colorado
#1C Nashville vs. #1W Dallas
#2C Winnipeg vs. #3C St. Louis
#2P San Jose vs. #3P Calgary
The biggest takeaway from this current outlook? It won’t take 100 points to be a playoff team this year, but the vast number of mediocre teams opens the door for some last-minute playoff drama. The Islanders, Rangers, Wild, and Kings all project to be just one win outside of a playoff berth. These races could come down to the wire. It should be a fun second half.