Red Wings Notes: The Reality In Hockeytown
Watching from the other bench, Mike Babcock couldn’t help but smile. After a 4-0 victory over his former team in Detroit, it couldn’t be more obvious that the Toronto Maple Leafs and Detroit Red Wings are on completely different trajectories. The Leafs, once the bottom feeder of the Eastern Conference, is rising like a phoenix out of the ashes. And the Red Wings? Once the darling of the league, they now sit where the Leafs called home for several seasons.
Why? There are opinions everywhere and they vary from writer to writer. But here are a few thoughts:
- The Detroit News’ Bob Wojnowski writes that general manager Ken Holland has quite the mess to fix in Detroit. Though the Wings move into their sparkling new home next season, the product could sour what should be a happy housewarming. Wojo weighs the usual: how did they get here, what could Holland do to make it better, and what’s the reality behind all of it. Wojnowski quotes Holland as saying that he “can’t make three blockbuster trades” to suddenly make the team better. But it’s interesting because the current predicament faced by Detroit is because of Holland. From overvaluing players to handing out terrible contracts for long terms, Wojo points out that Holland’s rebuilding on the fly mantra has failed.
- That takes us to Winging It In Motown, where blogger J.J. From Kansas analyzes Holland-speak and what it could possibly mean. First, he points out Holland’s notion that rebuilds take 8-10 years took a hit after realizing that the majority of Red Wings fans recognize such a rebuild is necessary to reclaim the franchise’s once proud status as a contender. What he sees interesting is that Holland changed his tune a bit, showing that in Wojo’s aforementioned piece, Holland turns up the rebuilding timeline to just 5-6 years of pain. The reason? From J.J.:
If Holland knows he has to bring on the pain of risking constructive losing to end the pain of pointless losing, it’s in his best interests to sell it as well as he can. Honestly, I’m a little shocked he didn’t sell it as a 3-4 year plan instead.
- In one final piece from outside of Detroit, Craig Custance gives a non-partisan view of the Red Wings and the grade book isn’t kind. Custance writes that the Red Wings are deserving of a C-, and pens that “injuries, disarray on defense and the regression of Petr Mrazek” have gotten the Wings to where they are. He lists Detroit as sellers and lists Thomas Vanek and Brendan Smith as bargaining chips for rebuilding.
Between all three pieces, it’s obvious that change is coming in Detroit. The only question remaining is how quickly can the Wings return to the top?
Remembering The Early Trades From 2015-16
The month between the All-Star game and the NHL trade deadline is an interesting one. While most of the action happens right at the end, even sometimes extending past the official deadline due to trade calls, sometimes big moves happen early in February.
Last season, 33 trades happened in the last few days (from February 26-29) before the deadline, but there were also seven deals that happened in the weeks immediately after the All-Star break. Those deals were just as important to the futures of their teams as any made on the day itself. Let’s look back at the seven deals made between February 9th and 25th last season.
February 9th: Toronto trades Dion Phaneuf, Matt Frattin, Casey Bailey, Ryan Rupert and Cody Donaghey to Ottawa for Jared Cowen, Colin Greening, Milan Michalek, Tobias Lindberg and a 2017 2nd-round pick.
Starting with a whopper, the Maple Leafs continued their drastic tear-down by trading their current captain and highest paid player to a cross-province and divisional rival. The Senators had been looking for another big-minute defenseman and thought Phaneuf could become that player for them.
While it hasn’t worked out perfectly for the Senators, Phaneuf has logged over 23 minutes a night since coming over and is having a fine if unspectacular season offensively this year. While his massive looks like an albatross on their books – he’ll have a cap-hit of $7MM (more than Erik Karlsson) until 2020-21 – the actual salary is much lower. The team also rid themselves of dead money in Cowen, Greening and Michalek and only had to pay the price of a middling prospect in Lindberg and what looks like a fairly late second-round pick.
Lou Lamoriello and the Maple Leafs worked some accounting magic, and have effectively rid themselves of the cap-hits for all three players, burying Greening and Michalek in the AHL and buying out Cowen after a lengthy dispute. Moving Phaneuf was an integral part of the plan going forward, and both teams are fighting for playoff spots a year later.
Snapshots: McDavid Effect, Tortorella, Van Riemsdyk
In 2012-13, Eerie Otters forward J.P. Labardo scored a career-high 62 points. The next season, Otters forward Dane Fox scored a whopping 64 goals in 67 games, more than his previous four seasons’ combined. What do these sudden offensive outbursts have in common? Connor McDavid.
You’re forgiven if you haven’t heard of either of these men. Labardo is out of hockey while Fox is in the ECHL. But they both demonstrate what could be called “The McDavid Effect.”
When McDavid turned pro, struggling former first-overall pick Nail Yakupov had 10 points in 13 games playing with McDavid, but posted just 13 points in his next 47 games without McDavid. Now, Patrick Maroon is six goals above his career-high in just 50 games, mostly on McDavid’s wing.
National Post scribe Michael Traikos mentions those four men as shining examples of beneficiaries to playing with McDavid. Oilers coach Todd McLellan doesn’t want to take anything away from the effort Maroon has put in to improve, but adds that “playing with Connor helps. He has a tendency to make players around him better and that’s what superstars do.”
Maroon’s success is likely a result of being at the right-place at the right-time. He’s finally put in the off-season work: he lost 20 lbs over the summer and gained the step necessary to play with the speedy McDavid. Maroon told Traikos that he doesn’t “just skate around and expect [McDavid] to pass the puck to me… There’s a lot more to it.” McDavid praised Maroon as “one of the best forecheckers in the league.”
Regardless of who is on his wing, one of McDavid’s best attributes is his unselfish ability to improve those around him, and that should lead to more players being interested in the surging Oilers.
- The Columbus Blue Jackets will be without their head coach tonight. The team’s website announced that John Tortorella has returned to Columbus “due to a family emergency.” He will also miss the upcoming NHL All-Star game, where he was scheduled to coach the Metropolitan Division. Tortorella says he did not make the decision lightly and he hopes to back next week. Earlier today, it was announced that Blue Jackets forward Cam Atkinson would join Seth Jones and Sergei Bobrovsky in Los Angeles for the All-Star festivities.
- While some hockey insiders believe that the Maple Leafs should be buyers at the trade deadline in order to make a big playoff push, there’s disagreement on who should be traded. TSN’s Dave Poulin believes the Maple Leafs should hold on to James Van Riemsdyk, despite the swirling trade rumors. While the big winger could get the team an upgrade on defense, Poulin argues that Van Riemsdyk is a veteran leader who is a perfect fit for the young Maple Leafs as they fight to make the playoffs for the first time since 2013. Van Riemsdyk has 39 points in 46 games and has been a great influence on rookie Mitch Marner.
Atlantic Division Snapshots: Marchand, Julien, Toronto
Brad Marchand has avoided a suspension for his “dangerous trip” of Detroit Red Wings defenseman Niklas Kronwall in a recent game between the two clubs, the NHL Department of Player Safety has announced. Instead the pesky forward was assessed a $10,000 fine, the maximum allowed under terms of the CBA.
Given his history with the DoPS – he’s been suspended four times overall in his career and on three separate occasions since the start of the 2014-15 campaign – it seemed likely Marchand would be suspended. However, the fact Kronwall showed no apparent ill-effects from the incident may have saved the Bruins leading scorer from that outcome. Ultimately, not losing Marchand for any length is certainly great news for a Boston club fighting desperately for a postseason berth.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Division:
- In an ESPN Insider piece (subscription required), Rob Vollman makes an argument utilizing analytics for the Boston Bruins to refrain from terminating embattled head coach Claude Julien. Vollman compares the season-to-date performance of Boston to that of the New York Islanders, who dismissed head coach Jack Capuano recently. On the surface, the two are quite similar but an analysis of shot-based metrics reveal a different outcome. The Bruins have the league’s best shot attempt differential with a plus-488 while the Islanders were a minus-293 at the time of Capuano’s firing. He also compares the career accomplishments of the two coaches, and again Julien holds a decided advantage. Ultimately Vollman concludes it would be foolish to let Julien go. While the scribe makes a compelling case, it is known every coach has a shelf life and Julien is in his 10th season as the head man in Boston. If Bruins management concludes the bench boss has lost his team, or that his message simply isn’t getting through anymore, it may be best to move on.
- Craig Custance, also of ESPN, believes the time is now for the Toronto Maple Leafs and the team’s management to add experienced talent to take advantage of the young guns currently on ELC’s. Custance compares the current Leafs roster with that of the 2007-08 Chicago Blackhawks. That happened to be the year both Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane debuted in the NHL. As Custance points out, even with the two talented young superstars leading the way, it wasn’t until Chicago added Brian Campbell (2008) and Marian Hossa (2009) did the team ultimately develop into a Stanley Cup contender. He maintains that the addition of Campbell helped turn the team’s defense corps into a quicker, more efficient puck-moving unit. Hossa, Custance adds, showed the team’s young stars how important it is to play smart, two-way hockey. The scribe suggests the Leafs should pursue a similar strategy and while there may be no player available comparable to Hossa, Kevin Shattenkirk could certainly fill the role for Toronto that Campbell did for Chicago. Shattenkirk might well be available via trade, though unless Toronto was able to ink the mobile defender to a contract extension, it would qualify as a risk to sacrifice the assets necessary to convince St. Louis to strike a deal.
Evening Snapshots: Ducks, Vanek, Rielly
News and notes from around the NHL this evening:
- The Anaheim Ducks recalled center Kalle Kossila from the San Diego Gulls today. The Franco-Finnish is having a great year in the AHL, scoring 9G and 18A in 33 games. The Ducks signed Kossila out of the NCAA last spring, but kept him in the AHL until now. Kossila was born in France but moved to Finland at an early age.
- Detroit Red Wings forward Thomas Vanek returns to action tonight against the Toronto Maple Leafs, reports Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press. Vanek suffered a lower body injury on Sunday against the New York Rangers, and missed Detroit’s next game against the Boston Bruins. To make room Detroit scratched forward Drew Miller. Vanek has been the lone bright spot on a disappointing Detroit team this year. The Austrian forward is second in team scoring with 12G and 19A in 36 games. That is great production from a forward making only $2.6MM this year. Vanek has a chance to earn much more this summer as he enters free agency at the end of this season. And because of his pending UFA status—coupled with Detroit presumably not making the playoffs—Vanek could be a top trade candidate at the NHL trade deadline.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs continue to be without defenseman Morgan Rielly, reports the Toronto Star’s Kevin McGran. Rielly did not travel with the team to Detroit, and is not expected to be with the team tomorrow night in Philadelphia against the Flyers. Rielly hasn’t played since suffering a lower body injury on January 17th against the Buffalo Sabres. In that time, Toronto is 1-1-0-1, but did shut out the Calgary Flames on Monday 4-0. With the Atlantic Division playoff spots up for grabs, the Maple Leafs need Rielly back as soon as possible.
Injury Updates: Rask, Krug, Carlson, Rielly, Gallagher
After exiting the Boston Bruins’ 5-1 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins yesterday midway through the game with a migraine, Tuukka Rask was also not in attendance at practice today. The Bruins are losers of four straight games and have an important re-match with the Detroit Red Wings on Tuesday, who they gave up a three-goal lead to last Wednesday en route to a shootout defeat. The last thing they can afford is to lose their best player this season, as Rask has been excellent with 22 wins, a .920 save percentage, and 2.11 goals against average, especially when rookie backup Zane McIntyre has struggled to adjust to the NHL thus far with an .860 save percentage and 3.95 goals against average. There has been no word on Rask’s availability for tomorrow night’s game and no recall has yet to be made, so Rask may just be taking the day off to rest and recover. The Bruins certainly hope that’s the case and they need their star keeper at full strength if they want to right the ship.
Torey Krug was another notable name who did not practice for the Bruins today. The speedy defenseman was the recipient of a bad hit yesterday by the Penguins’ Jake Guentzel (who deservedly got a boarding penalty). Not only did Krug continue playing, but he led all Bruins in ice time. That effort combined with a harsh hit likely earned him the day off today. Krug is tenth among NHL defensemen in points this season with four goals and 25 assists and is another player the Bruins cannot afford to lose right now. On a positive note, all of the Bruins other defensemen were full participants in practice today, including both Colin Miller and Kevan Miller who have missed the last few games with injury.
In other injury news around the league:
- Another struggling team who needs a healthy roster is the St. Louis Blues. However, prominent contributors Jaden Schwartz and Jay Bouwmeester did not skate today. Schwartz took a shot to the inside of the knee in Saturday’s 5-3 loss to the Winnipeg Jets and was reportedly limping badly after the game. Bouwmeester remains out with a lower-body injury, though is considered day-to-day. Both players appear questionable to suit up for St. Louis against the Pittsburgh Penguins.
- Capitals fans will be happy to hear that top defenseman John Carlson skated with the team today, but should not expect to see the big blue liner back in the lineup right away. With Washington rolling of late (11-0-2 in their last 13), the team can afford to ease Carlson back into the lineup. He has been ruled out for both tonight’s game against the Carolina Hurricanes and tomorrow’s against the Ottawa Sentors. He may play Thursday against the New Jersey Devils, but it seems likely that they will hold him out through the All-Star break to give him another week of rest.
- Another defenseman on the mend is Toronto’s Morgan Rielly, who was a full participant at Maple Leafs practice today. While he’s been ruled out for tonight’s match-up with the Calgary Flames, coach Mike Babcock has left open the possibility that he could return before the All-Star break as the Leafs play twice later in the week.
- The Montreal Canadiens were happy to have hard-working Brendan Gallagher back at practice today, but Habs fans should not hold their breath for a swift return. Gallagher still appears to be a ways out from game action, as he wore a white non-contact jersey and used a stick with no blade. Gallagher admitted that when returning from a similar injury to his left hand last year, he began shooting too soon and caused damage. The team doctors didn’t take that chance this time around, removing the blade to also remove the temptation. Even when he returns, Gallagher said he will likely have to wear protection on his hand for the rest of his career after multiple surgeries. An eight-week timeline was set for the gritty winger when he was injured at the beginning of January, so Gallagher could still be a month away from playing for the Canadiens again.
Breaking Down Potential Landing Spots For Kevin Shattenkirk
The trade deadline is just over a month away, and there will be a lot of names brought up as potentially on the move. Expiring contracts are the easiest to move, as teams go for a Stanley Cup run while others rebuild. The most talked about name all year and likely for the next month is Kevin Shattenkirk. The defensemen topped our mid-season list of 2017 UFAs and is having another excellent season.
It was recently reported by Darren Dreger that Shattenkirk would have interest in signing a long-term deal with Anaheim, Boston, Colorado, Detroit, New York (Rangers), San Jose, and Toronto this summer and many have suggested that one of these teams would be willing to be the top bidder at the deadline if they were able to work out an extension with him prior to the deal.
It doesn’t really make sense for some of these teams to make the deal, though the way the Eastern Conference is so tightly packed, everyone might think adding an elite right-handed defenseman would push them into a playoff spot.
A similar deal was made two years ago, when Keith Yandle was dealt to the Rangers. Though Yandle had one more year on his deal, he was a similarly productive offensive defensemen who logged huge minutes. The Rangers had to give up a young sniper in 19-year old Anthony Duclair, a (conditional) first-round pick and a second-round pick. The Rangers would go all the way to the Conference Finals that year, but get bounced out the next in the first round. Recouping some of their lost assets, they dealt Yandle’s rights to Florida where he signed long-term.
For Shattenkirk, imagine a slightly reduced package (unless an extension is reached) but still with substantial assets. Here are some Eastern Conference options for the Blues’ alternate captain.
New York Rangers
Would the Rangers go after another big-named defenseman at the deadline? Shattenkirk is from the area and many people believe they’re the early front-runners for his services this summer. The Rangers haven’t selected a player in the first-round since 2012, and if they go after the Blues’ defenseman they likely won’t this year either. Shattenkirk would look nice skating alongside captain Ryan McDonagh, but the team may not want to part with any young talent or high draft picks again this year.
Boston Bruins
The Bruins are slumping hard, losing again today 5-1 to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Acquiring Shattenkirk may be a fun idea, but it likely wouldn’t be enough to fix everything that’s going wrong right now. It’s unclear who they’d even waive as bait, with Brandon Carlo being their best trade chip. Moving out a young right-handed defenseman for a rental doesn’t sound like the best managing.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs surprised everyone this year by being in the playoff hunt through the first half. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have played better than anyone expected in their rookie seasons, and their secondary scoring has been consistent. They do have a huge hole on the right side of their defense, but all signs point to Brendan Shanahan and company sticking to the rebuild and not giving up young assets. They may be a player in the summer for his services, but it would be shocking to see them move a pick or prospect for him in-season.
Philadelphia Flyers
If Philly wants to make the playoffs this year, they have to do something with their defense corps. After a scorching hot start, they’ve been one of the worst teams in the league the last month or so and can’t seem to keep the puck out of their own net. Shattenkirk would perhaps help them more than any other team, as currently Radko Gudas is their only right-handed defenseman.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Yes, the Penguins already have a stud who plays on the right side, but Kris Letang has been injured for much of the year. A team who often makes a big splash at the deadline for the playoffs, they currently have Justin Schultz, Chad Ruhwedel and Steve Oleksy playing the right side. Though Schultz is having a career season, the playoffs are a different story. The Penguins shouldn’t be considered anything more than a dark horse in the Shattenkirk sweepstakes, but it would be an interesting fit to be sure.
Tampa Bay Lightning Deadline, Expansion Notes
The Tampa Bay Lightning have had a ton of success the past few seasons, winning at least 46 games three straight seasons and making a Stanley Cup final in 2015. Today, they find themselves in last place in the Atlantic division and one point out of the bottom of the conference. They’re 2-7-1 in their last 10, and haven’t been able to find any consistency at either end of the ice.
When looking at the rest of their season, it’s not all bad. Despite being close to the bottom of the conference, they’re also just four points back of the Maple Leafs for the last wildcard spot (though they’ve played 48 games, four more than the Leafs). They should get Steven Stamkos back at some point, though depending on when he returns (likely mid-March) it may be too late.
When looking at their roster, they have very few expiring deals to sell off at the deadline. Ben Bishop would be a big chip, though most Cup contenders already have a #1 installed firmly in net. He’s also struggled through inconsistency and injury this season, making him a hard player to value for the back half of the season. Brian Boyle is a UFA this summer, and while he’s have a nice season he likely isn’t the 20 goal scorer he once was for New York. He’d be attractive to some teams to plug into a bottom-six, but wouldn’t bring much back.
The biggest problem for the Lightning though may be the upcoming expansion draft, where they will have a tough time protecting their current assets up front. Since Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Ryan Callahan and Valtteri Filppula all have no-movement clauses and come with automatic protection, the team has just four forward spots left to protect.
Nikita Kucherov and Jonathan Drouin are locks to be protected, meaning there are two slots left for the crop of forwards including Alex Killorn, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, and Vladislav Namestnikov among others (many, many others). Losing one of those players for nothing would be a questionable move, meaning GM Steve Yzerman may be busy in the next month positioning his team better for the draft.
Adding a defenseman is a big need for the Bolts, and if they could find one that is exempt from the draft (meaning a young, first or second year player) it would be advantageous. Johnson could likely have fetched a huge price two years ago coming off his 29-goal, 72 point 2014-15, but after the struggles last year and a perceived step backwards defensively it may be selling low on him. He’s an RFA again this summer meaning he’ll be looking for a big-money deal, but perhaps the team could get a better price after letting him play out the rest of the regular season and (hopefully) topping the 50 point mark once again.
Killorn just signed a new deal this summer that locked him up for seven years, which may scare some teams off after a sluggish first half. Palat, though also not having a huge year probably has a bigger upside than Killorn and is two years younger. Though he’s also up for a new deal this summer as an RFA, the Lightning would likely need a big offer to pry him away.
If the team still thinks that it can compete in the Eastern Conference playoffs once Stamkos is back, perhaps they don’t need to sell one of their forwards for help down the line but with the draft looming and this season slipping away they may end up shipping out a well-known name.
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Maple Leafs Re-Claim Seth Griffith On Waivers
For the third time this season, Seth Griffith has been claimed on waivers.
The Bruins lost him to the Maple Leafs in the pre-season, who lost him to the Panthers after just three games, and now the Maple Leafs have taken him back.
Griffith had five assists in 21 games with the Panthers, but was a healthy scratch in seven of Florida’s past eight games.
Though Griffith is small by NHL standards at 5’9, teams are clearly fascinated by his potential. Griffith has played in 58 NHL games with those three teams, recording six goals and 16 points. His production at the AHL level has been much better; he had 77 points in just 57 games with the Providence Bruins in 2015-16.
Frank Corrado Finally Plays
Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Frank Corrado will finally see the ice after playing but one NHL game this season. Corrado has been a healthy scratch for almost the entire season—minus a week long conditioning stint in the AHL—because of Toronto’s blue line logjam.
The young defenseman took to the media earlier this year to express his frustration with the lack of playing time. Corrado remained a healthy scratch despite gaining muscle and working hard every practice. He questioned whether coach Mike Babcock liked him, and whether he fit into the team’s plan.
With star defenseman Morgan Rielly out, however, Corrado finally gains his chance to show the team what he brings to the table. Rielly suffered a lower body injury against the Buffalo Sabres Tuesday night, and it is unclear how many games the blue line mainstay will miss. According to the Athletic’s James Mirtle, Corrado will man the left side on a third pairing with Connor Carrick. Mirtle expects Corrado to get around 13 minutes of playing time.
The Maple Leafs will have to rely on its defensive depth to weather Rielly’s injury. Rielly plays over 22 minutes a night on the top pairing with the surprise breakout defenseman Nikita Zaitsev. Defenseman Jake Gardiner is expected to shoulder an increased load while Rielly remains sidelined. If Frank Corrado can impress Mike Babcock over the next few games, his current situation may change for the better.