- Adam Kimelman of NHL.com caught up with Mike Babcock at the World Junior Summer Showcase, where the Toronto Maple Leafs coach is presumably scratching his hockey itch by watching some of the best young players in the world. The conversation turned to Auston Matthews, who Babcock believes can be even better this season. After scoring 40 goals and 69 points as a rookie and almost unanimously taking home the Calder trophy, Babcock thinks the improvements to his defensive game and pace of play will allow him to have the puck even more and dominate play. Matthews turns 20 in September, and will be a big part of any return to the playoffs for the Maple Leafs in 2017-18.
Maple Leafs Rumors
Detroit Red Wings Will Pursue Will Butcher
The Colorado Avalanche were unable to convince reigning Hobey Baker award winner Will Butcher to sign with them after his final season with the University of Denver, and he will become a free agent after August 15th. Like last year with Jimmy Vesey, we’ll see plenty of teams reach out to the young defensemen to try and add a prospect to their organization for nothing more than an entry-level contract. We’ve already heard that Pittsburgh will likely be interested in him and that Butcher’s camp would welcome a call from the reigning Stanley Cup champions, and now Craig Custance of The Athletic reports that the Detroit Red Wings will also be involved.
The Red Wings have gone hard after free agents from college and Europe this offseason, trying to infuse as much young talent as they can into their franchise as it begins its next chapter. The Wings missed the playoffs for the first time since 1990 and are in quite the precarious situation salary cap-wise. It looks like the next few years will be a rough patch for one of the NHL’s oldest teams, and adding young cheap talent like Butcher could help that cause. Custance is quick to point out though that some scouts think of Butcher as more of a bottom-pairing player, and it would be tough to assume more than that. It’s rare that top-4 defensemen slip through the cracks and into the fifth round, and even rarer that they’re not offered a contract until their senior year. It’s clear that Butcher has some sort of NHL upside, but he is already 22-years old.
An interesting note is that the Toronto Maple Leafs—often a rival of Detroit in pursuing college free agents—don’t currently have a contract spot open for Butcher if they wanted to go after him. The team has 49 contracts already, and with Connor Brown still to sign they wouldn’t have room for Butcher on an entry-level contract. That’s not to say they couldn’t get him to agree to an AHL deal this year, only to sign him next season but Butcher would be giving up a year of ELC to do that. It would have to be quite a pitch to convince him, especially if teams like Detroit and Pittsburgh are offering more immediate opportunities.
The Summer Of Cody Franson: Part II
It’s late in NHL free agency, midway through the summer months, and defenseman Cody Franson remains unsigned. Sound familiar? Just two years ago, the summer of 2015, the same exact thing happened and, if history is any indication, the waiting game is just beginning.
Fresh off the best season of his career in 2014-15, in which he posted a career-high 36 points with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Nashville Predators, who had acquired the highly sought-after commodity at the NHL Trade Deadline, Franson was expected to be a major player in free agency. Franson entered the market on July 1st at just 27 years old and ready to cash in on his recent success. Only, that isn’t what happened. Even in a relatively weak market for defenseman, highlighted by the likes of Mike Green, Andrej Sekera and Johnny Oduya, Franson could not find a deal to his liking. Perhaps he priced himself out of the range that many teams were willing to pay for him or maybe he just didn’t get the fair market value offer he was expecting. Either way, the rumors surrounding Franson dragged on all summer. Franson stood alone as the major unsigned free agent through July, through August, and into September. It took Franson until September 10th, 72 days into free agency, to finally sign a deal. He agreed to terms with the Buffalo Sabres on a two-year, $6.65MM contract. The deal came in at an annual average value of $3.325MM, less than the aging Kevin Bieksa and streaky Michael Del Zotto got and most comparable to Zbynek Michalek, whom Franson had played far superior than in 2014-15. Many has speculated that his negotiation wore on as he decided between a short-term deal with a contender or more money and more term from a team in a rebuild; in the end he got less money and short term from the rebuilding Sabres.
After all the attention that Franson got two years ago, he could not have more invisible during his time in Buffalo. The poor fit with the Sabres was immediately evident, as Franson was denied a major role on the power play, where he had become a big-time weapon in Toronto, and was given nearly five minutes less ice time than he had with the Maple Leafs. Frason also never seemed to settle into a consistent role or on a specific pairing. Between a lesser role and ongoing injury issues, 2015-16 was the worst season of Franson’s career. Although limited to just 59 games, Franson nonetheless scored less than half of the 36 points he had registered in 78 games with the Leafs and Predators the year before. He also saw a massive drop-off in his defensive stats like hits and blocks. Buffalo fans were hoping for a rebound year when Franson returned to full health in 2016-17, but it did not come. Despite being given more ice time, the 6’5″, 224-lb. defenseman often looked sluggish on the ice, as if he had resigned to the fact that joining the Sabres was a bad choice and was simply playing to get through the season and get back on the market. Despite playing in nine more games this season than last and seeing the ice more often in each contest, Franson finished with only two more points than in 2015-16. Overall, the past two seasons in Buffalo were the worst of his career.
Perhaps teams took notice of Franson’s lack of involvement and apparent frustration in Buffalo, because there has not been much noise surrounding his availability this summer. The major difference between this off-season and the 2015 off-season in terms of Franson’s availability is that the rumor mill has not exactly been churning these last few weeks. In 2015, it was clear that the Sabres were just one of several teams courting Franson, with others like the Boston Bruins, New Jersey Devils, Edmonton Oilers, and Vancouver Canucks hot on the trail all the way until the bitter end. This year, there has hardly been a whisper about Franson. This comes after he surprisingly stayed in Buffalo beyond the Trade Deadline as well, even though there was no doubt that he planned to leave this summer. Considering the size and strength that Franson brings, his track record as a legitimate top-four two-way defenseman during his years with Nashville and Toronto, and his impressive possession numbers (even in Buffalo), there has to be some other reason that Franson remains unsigned with little indication of that status changing soon.
Even coming off back-to-back down seasons, Franson’s availabilty this late in the off-season is shocking, just as it was two years ago. The defensive market this off-season wasn’t impressive to begin with, especially on the right side, yet Franson still sits waiting for the right deal. Ranked #22 in PHR’s Top 50 Free Agents, we expected that Franson would sign a two-year deal worth $5MM, down from his last deal with the Sabres but substantially more than what we felt many other blue liners on the market would demand. Last time around, Franson held out and got a multi-year deal, so it could still happen again. It was a toss-up between Franson and Michael Stone as the best right-handed defenseman behind Kevin Shattenkirk when it came to the 2017 free agent class, but with Stone re-signing in Calgary before July 1st and Shattenkirk going to the New York Rangers not long after, Franson has been the best righty on the market for some time. With Andrei Markov announcing that he will leave the NHL for the KHL next season, Franson is now the best of any defenseman available. So when will the action heat up? With almost no rumors to go off of, it very well could be another September signing for Franson, who may end up as an excellent value addition for some team. The Colorado Avalanche and New Jersey Devils are desperate for some depth on the blue line, while the Los Angeles Kings were one of the few teams eyeing Franson at the deadline and have considerable depth issue of their own. There is always the Toronto Maple Leafs too; always on the lookout for that righty to pair with Morgan Rielly, Franson has always played his best in Toronto and could be a stopgap option in the top four.
There really is no clear answer to the enigma that is Cody Frason’s free agency. For the second time in a row, a seemingly solid defenseman has been unable to find a suitable contract and no one knows exactly why. He may end up signing a long-term deal to play a major role for an NHL team, or he could take a one-year “show me” deal as depth for a contender, or maybe he really has no takers and goes overseas. Who knows? One thing is for certain, no one will ever consider Franson to be priority free agent to watch for on July 1st ever again.
Top 2018 Draft Picks That Have Already Been Traded
About 11 months from now, 31 NHL general managers will come together in a room with thousands of people watching and select the next group of young players destined to make it to the professional ranks. The 2018 NHL Entry Draft will be a huge event, mostly because of the elite talent that will be available at the top.
Without a clear consensus on the top pick so far, the next year will be extremely interesting to watch for prospect hounds. Andrei Svechnikov, Rasmus Dahlin, Joe Veleno, Quinn Hughes and others all have incredible talent, and could push for the top spot with a big year (and perhaps a growth spurt or two). Like this year, we could also see a relative outsider like Nico Hischier fly up the ranks to take over the top spot by draft day. One thing is for sure though, that there is plenty of talent to find in the first round and beyond at next year’s draft.
It has already been clear that teams don’t want to give up their 2018 draft picks, as we saw with the collection of selections acquired by the Vegas Golden Knights. They have multiple second-round picks in 2019 and 2020, but couldn’t secure an extra top pick in 2018. That said, there have already been many transactions that have moved picks around. Here are the teams that have acquired extra picks in the first three rounds of the 2018 draft (key player traded in parentheses).
Arizona Coyotes:
Acquired 2018 2nd-round pick from Minnesota Wild (Hanzal)
Detroit Red Wings:
Acquired 2018 2nd-round pick (OTT) from New York Rangers (Smith)
Florida Panthers:
Acquired 2018 2nd-round pick from Arizona Coyotes (Crouse)
Minnesota Wild:
Acquired 2018 3rd-round pick from Buffalo Sabres (Scandella)
Acquired 2018 3rd-round pick from Vegas Golden Knights (Tuch)
Montreal Canadiens:
Acquired 2018 2nd-round pick from Chicago Blackhawks (Weise)
New York Islanders:
Acquired 2018 1st-round pick from Calgary Flames (Hamonic)
Acquired 2018 2nd-round pick from Calgary Flames (Hamonic)
Philadelphia Flyers:
Acquired conditional 2018 1st-round from St. Louis Blues (Schenn)
Tampa Bay Lightning:
Acquired conditional 2018 2nd-round pick (WSH) from Montreal Canadiens (Drouin)
Toronto Maple Leafs:
Acquired 2018 2nd-round pick from San Jose Sharks (Polak)
Acquired 2018 3rd-round pick from San Jose Sharks (Reimer)
Washington Capitals:
Acquired 2018 2nd-round pick (FLA) from New Jersey Devils (Johansson)
Acquired 2018 3rd-round pick (TOR) from New Jersey Devils (Johansson)
Dead Space: Bought-Out, Buried, And Retained Salaries For Every Team
It’s something that often goes unnoticed, but with the cap showing minimal growth the last few years, teams are starting to feel the crunch more than ever. Buyouts have become more common, especially with players with under three remaining years on their contracts. And it’s not just the big name busts that have seen the ax lately – we’ve seen lesser names at lesser money take the fall for their respective teams, then needing to scramble for work elsewhere in the league. Additionally, salary retention in trades has become a more utilized tactic as of late. Teams with “unmovable” contracts have offered to retain part of a poor contract in order to entice a team into giving them some relief.
All this said, some teams have been better with foresight than others. Some teams have shown a track record of being entirely unable of handing out poor contracts over the past five or so seasons. Considering many teams showed some progress in being more frugal this off-season, it seems a wise time to review the dead space every team has accumulated, either due to poor management decisions or poor luck.
Colorado Avalanche – $4.83 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – Francois Beauchemin buyout; Cody McLeod retained
Arizona Coyotes – $4.61 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Mike Smith retained; Mike Ribeiro, Antoine Vermette buyouts
Columbus Blue Jackets – $4.025 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Fedor Tyutin, Jared Boll, Scott Hartnell buyouts
Carolina Hurricanes – $3.71 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Eddie Lack retained; Alexander Semin, James Wisniewski buyouts
Toronto Maple Leafs – $3.28 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2021-22 – Tim Gleason, Jared Cowen buyouts; Phil Kessel retained
Nashville Predators – $2.83 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Viktor Stalberg, Eric Nystrom, Barret Jackman buyouts
Boston Bruins – $2.73 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved 2019-20 – Dennis Seidenberg, Jimmy Hayes buyouts
New York Rangers – $2.61 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2022-23 – Dan Girardi buyout
Minnesota Wild – $2.5 MM in 2017-17, issues resolved after current year – Thomas Vanek buyout
Los Angeles Kings – $2.4 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2023-24 – Matt Greene buyout; Mike Richards termination/recapture
Edmonton Oilers – $2.33 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Lauri Korpikoski, Benoit Pouliot buyouts
Anaheim Ducks – $2.21 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2023-24 – Mark Fistric, Simon Despres buyouts; Patrick Maroon retained
Vancouver Canucks – $2.13 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2021-22 – Roberto Luongo, Jannik Hansen retained; Chris Higgins buyout
New Jersey Devils – $2.09 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2023-24 – Mike Cammalleri, Devante Smith-Pelly buyouts; Ilya Kovalchuk recapture
Tampa Bay Lightning – $1.83 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2019-20 – Matt Carle buyout
Calgary Flames – $1.82 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Mason Raymond, Lance Bouma, Ryan Murphy buyouts
Detroit Red Wings – $1.67 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Stephen Weiss buyout
Dallas Stars – $1.5 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19- Antti Niemi buyout
Philadelphia Flyers – $1.5 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – R.J. Umberger buyout
Winnipeg Jets – $1.46 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Mark Stuart buyout
Florida Panthers – $1.33 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Jussi Jokinen buyout
Las Vegas Golden Knights – $1.1 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – Alexei Emelin retained
Ottawa Senators – $350,000 in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – Andrew Hammond buried
Buffalo Sabres – Minimal in 2017-18, increased issues ($791,00) resolved after 2022-23 – Cody Hodgson buyout
Chicago Blackhawks, St. Louis Blues, Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins, New York Islanders, San Jose Sharks, Montreal Canadiens – No dead cap space
After compiling the list, it became clear that utilizing these options isn’t a complete hindrance to competing in the NHL. In fact, most clubs have between $1 MM and $3 MM in dead space. That said, of the teams that have not needed to utilize the buyout or retention options, there has been a great deal of success. And among the five worst offenders, the Leafs, Hurricanes, Blue Jackets, Avalanche, and Coyotes, none has moved past the first-round in multiple years. It’s hard to draw massive conclusions without taking the context of each individual situation into account, but there is something to be said for making every dollar of cap space count. Perhaps this is merely a byproduct of past success rather than an indicator of future success, but considering how amenable many managers have become to the option, it bears consideration.
(All totals courtesy of the fantastic CapFriendly.com)
Toronto Marlies Sign Alex Gudbranson To AHL Deal
Johnny Gaudreau was on Philadelphia CBS radio this morning, and gave a quote that partially stopped the hearts of many Calgary Flames fans listening in.
I’ve got a ton of family here, all my friends…all my friends come back here, all my good friends and kids that I’ve played with my whole life are from South Jersey. It would be sweet to play here some day. You never know in sports, but there’s a lot of support back here in South Jersey and the Philly area.
This can probably be put up there with Drew Doughty’s comments on playing in Toronto from earlier this offseason, as something said just to appease the listeners of the radio program Gaudreau was on at the time. After all, he did sign a long-term deal with the Flames last summer and said at the time that he’d like to play his whole career with Sean Monahan in Calgary if he could. Still, it’s something to remember for the summer of 2022 when a 28-year old Gaudreau is destined to be an unrestricted free agent.
- The Blackhawks got some bad news today, as Tommy Wingels suffered a broken foot during his offseason training and will miss 6-8 weeks of the offseason. He is still expected to be ready for training camp, though missing two months of his offseason is never a good thing. Wingels was brought in on a one-year deal by the Blackhawks this summer to help fill out their bottom six with affordable veterans, after a season in which he produced just 12 points. It’s been a steep fall from his career-high of 38 in 2013-14, and he is best suited to a fourth line role at this point.
- The Toronto Marlies added a player from development camp earlier today, and also re-signed Alex Gudbranson to a two-way minor league deal. Gudbranson spent a few games with the Marlies at the end of last season on loan from the Minnesota organization, but will join Toronto full-time next year.
- Darryl Sutter won’t be in the Los Angeles Kings organization next season, but his son will. Brett Sutter, the former Calgary Flames prospect has re-signed with the Ontario Reign on an AHL contract. He scored 36 points with the Reign last year, after coming over from the Iowa Wild in 2016.
Toronto Marlies Sign Kristian Pospisil
- The Toronto Marlies have signed Kristian Pospisil to a two-way minor league contract, bringing him into the system after an excellent development camp. The Maple Leafs will have no contract slots left after signing Connor Brown, meaning they can only give out these types of minor league deals until moving out some bodies. Pospisil played with first-round draft pick Eeli Tolvanen this year for the Sioux City Musketeers of the USHL, scoring 40 points in 48 games. Passed over in the draft multiple times, the 6’2″ winger was a free agent and able to sign with anyone.
Looking Ahead To 35+ Contract Situations
In the NHL, signing players after they turn 35-years old comes with some added restrictions and capabilities. For one, those players are now eligible for one-year contracts that include performance bonuses, a way to mitigate risk for the team while still providing opportunities for previously successful players. The big restriction though, is that the cap hit of any contract signed after 35 will stay on the books regardless of what happens with the player. Whether their bought out or retire, the team will still face the full cap hit for the entire length of the deal.
This year, we saw Colorado swallow their pride and buy out Francois Beauchemin even with this extra clause, and they will face the full $4.5MM cap hit this season. Mike Cammalleri, who is now 35 himself and was similarly bought out will not fall under this rule because he signed his contract several years ago. Only if the contract is signed after 35 does it come into effect.
With that clear, let’s look at some of the players who will be under contract for the 2018-19 season and could potentially cause their teams a cap hit without actually playing for them. Here are all the 35+ contracts that will still be active after the coming season.
Patrick Marleau – Toronto Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs signed Patrick Marleau to a three-year, $18.75MM contract this offseason and took a substantial risk in doing so. Marleau turns 38 before the season starts, and though he has been known to keep his body in great shape throughout his career is clearly on the regular downward trajectory every player experiences. The Maple Leafs did an interesting thing to reduce some of their risk however, by front-loading Marleau’s contract and paying nearly the whole thing out in signing bonuses. 
On July 2nd 2019, a few months before the final season of the contract begins, Marleau will have just $1.25MM left owed to him. Though he’ll be 41 for that season, and still carrying a $6.25MM cap hit, he’ll be a near-free option for a team struggling to hit the cap floor. That’s assuming he’s not still effective and the Maple Leafs want to keep him around, though they will be paying their young players like Auston Matthews a good chunk of the cap and may need the room. Marleau does have a no-movement clause, but if he’s set on retiring anyway it likely wouldn’t matter to him if his contract was traded.
Justin Williams – Carolina Hurricanes
Williams signed a two-year deal with the Hurricanes to return to the place he won his first Stanley Cup, and he comes with very little risk for the club in terms of retirement. Still a very effective scoring option, last season Williams actually registered his highest goal total since his days in Carolina a decade ago. It’s hard to see how he would fall so far in 2017-18 to make him think retirement was the only option.
That said, there is always a chance that a 35+ player could fall off a cliff production wise or just reach a point in his life that he wants to move on from hockey. If he did that next summer, the Hurricanes would be on the hook for a $4.5MM cap hit with no player to show for it. Luckily, the Hurricanes are one of those cap floor teams and an empty hit like that would pose no issue to their salary structure. They’d rather have an effective Williams in the lineup, but this deal came with almost no risk.
Ron Hainsey – Toronto Maple Leafs
Here come the Maple Leafs again, who handed out two multi-year deals to 35+ players this offseason. Hainsey comes fresh off a Stanley Cup victory with the Pittsburgh Penguins in his first taste of the playoffs, and will be expected to log difficult minutes in Toronto to take some pressure off their young group. His two-year, $6MM deal also comes front loaded should the team need to move him next summer.
Hainsey will be 38 when the contract expires, and some have already started to point out his deficiencies as the years roll on. With the Maple Leafs having to make decisions on James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak, William Nylander and Leo Komarov next summer, any further decline from Hainsey could be a problem. With no buyout relief available, the Maple Leafs would likely have to bite the bullet and keep him around through the end of the deal.
Alex Burrows – Ottawa Senators
It took a two-year extension from the Ottawa Senators to get Burrows to waive his no-trade clause at last year’s deadline, and that number will be tough to watch for the team should he continue his rapid decline. For a player who once scored 35 goals in a season, Burrows had just 24 the last two combined. While he did show some better jump in the Ottawa lineup, the team has several young players who will deserve more playing time over the next couple of seasons.
$2.5MM isn’t the end of the world, but when you’re a team who works on a tight internal budget like the Senators every dollar can mean a lot. Without the buyout option and the risk of Burrows hanging it up, that $2.5MM could haunt them next summer. Luckily, it will expire before the team needs to shell out the dollars for Erik Karlsson, who will be eligible for extension next offseason but won’t have his expected record-breaking deal kick in until 2019-20.
Ryan Miller – Anaheim Ducks 
Anaheim took a risk handing out a 35+ contract to Miller, but there doesn’t seem to be any sign of him wanting to retire just yet. He’s now closer to his offseason home with actress Noureen DeWulf, and $2MM per season to backup John Gibson seems like a perfect scenario 37-year old goaltender. Even though he could suddenly turn ineffective, their faith in Gibson and his similar inexpensiveness (he’s owed just $2.3MM in each of the next two seasons) covers their back.
Derek MacKenzie – Florida Panthers
The two-year extension the Panthers gave their captain last summer was a surprising one, if only because you don’t usually see players of his stature receive a guaranteed contract a year before they’re due for one. MacKenzie signed his first 35+ contract, but it comes at such a small cost—$2.75MM total over two years—that it poses little risk. The team wouldn’t need to buy him out, and even if he were to hang up his skates next summer they would have plenty of cap room. Besides, the Panthers have had great success with 35+ contracts in the past—just ask Jaromir Jagr.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Tanner Pearson A Possible Comparison For Connor Brown's Next Deal
- James Mirtle of The Athletic joined TSN 1150 this morning, and was asked about a potential Connor Brown contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Brown is the Leafs last remaining free agent, and is in line for a substantial raise after a 20-goal rookie season. Brown isn’t arbitration eligible, but Mirtle points to Tanner Pearson’s four-year $15MM contract as a possible comparable. With big contracts due for Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner in the next two years, along with a potential extension for Jake Gardiner, the Maple Leafs have to be careful with how much money they dole out for the other role players on the team.
Toronto Maple Leafs Sign Timothy Liljegren
The Toronto Maple Leafs’ prospect development camp ended today, and before sending him on his way the team inked top 2017 draft pick Timothy Liljegren to a three-year entry-level contract. The deal is worth $925K per season, with a possible $400K in Schedule A performance bonuses. Earlier today GM Lou Lamoriello said that Liljegren would either play in the AHL or back in Sweden next season, despite being selected in the OHL import draft by Niagara. Signing his contract now allows the team to play him with the Toronto Marlies of the AHL right away.
The most telling fact of the signing is that Toronto already had 48 of their 50 contract spots filled for next season, with a deal still needed for Connor Brown. That deal and this one would put them right at the limit, a move that seems unnecessary if Liljegren was going to be loaned back to the SHL next year. If Liljegren does play in the AHL next season he would likely be the youngest player on the team, a role filled by fellow Swede Carl Grundstrom when he came over at the end of the year.
Liljegren of course was at one point expected to go as high as second overall, but a bout of mononucleosis and questions about his decision making saw him fall all the way to the Maple Leafs at #17. Many said right away that it was a steal, but those decision making questions still remain. Making the jump to North America would give him an early chance to work in the Maple Leafs’ system and attempt to start minimizing those mistakes, while also giving him an opportunity to showcase his elite skating ability in front of the hometown crowd.
Kevin McGran of the Toronto Star reported the financial breakdown of the deal.