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Zemgus Girgensons

Free Agent Focus: Buffalo Sabres

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The free agent period is now less than one month away from opening up and there are several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Here is a breakdown of Buffalo’s free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Marcus Foligno – At just 25 years old, Foligno will enter his seventh season with the Sabres organization in 2017-18. While his development has been slow, it’s also been steady, finishing each passing season with more points than the year before. Foligno isn’t the player who showed flashes of as a rookie in 2011-12, scoring 13 points in 14 games, but he’s carved out an important role in Buffalo as a reliable top-nine winger. 2016-17 marked a career-high 13 goals for Foligno, helped along by a team-best 13.4% shooting percentage, as well as his first 80+ game season. As always though, Foligno’s true value comes in his physical two-way game, where he had a career-best and team-leading 279 hits, career-high 57 blocked shots, which led all Buffalo forwards, and was a vital member of the penalty kill. Las year, the Sabres signed Foligno to just a one-year, $2.25MM contract, but after again proving his worth as a defensive forward and top-nine contributor, new Buffalo GM Jason Botterill should have no problem giving the homegrown product a multi-year deal worth $2.5-$3MM annually. Even with fellow priority RFA’s Zemgus Girgensons and Johan Larsson in need of raises, the Sabres have plenty of cap space and will give Foligno what he’s worth.

G Robin Lehner –  The Sabres have no interest in letting Lehner go, but this off-season they need to either commit to the 25-year-old as their surefire starter or establish that they feel he is just a timeshare goalie at this point. Just two years ago, Buffalo traded a first-round pick to acquire Lehner from the Ottawa Senators. In his first year with the Sabres, he was excellent, posting a .924 save percentage and 2.47 GAA… but in only 21 games. Injuries limited Lehner to only a brief showing in 2015-16, but this past season he was able to see action in 59 games and again played well with a .920 save percentage and 2.68 GAA. With Chad Johnson gone, many expected that Lehner would play more this past season though. However, trade acquisition Anders Nilsson routinely outplayed Lehner all season long. The margin between the two wasn’t wide, but enough so that Nilsson managed to make 26 appearances, including 23 starts. The team has nonetheless stated that Lehner is their guy, but actions speak louder than words. The value and more so the term of Lehner’s contract this summer, as well as their negotiations with Nilsson, will speak volumes about their commitment to their supposed #1.

Other RFAs: F Zemgus Girgensons, F Johan Larsson, F Justin Kea, F Jean Dupuy, F Evan Rodrigues, D Brady Austin, G Linus Ullmark

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Brian Gionta – The Buffalo captain may be 38 years old and have over 1000 NHL games under his belt, but he also just completed a full 82-game season and seventh on the team in scoring. At this point in his career, Gionta is not looking to re-locate and perhaps no team could use his veteran leadership and hockey intelligence more than the Sabres, who have few forwards over 30 and certain players in need of mentoring (i.e. Evander Kane). The Sabres have plenty of cap space to play with and are expected to fill holes throughout the roster via free agency, but they’ll have room to bring back their captain who is still capable of scoring 30-40 points and can play in all situations. He probably won’t get another three-year, $12.75MM contract, but if Gionta wants to be back, he will be.

G Anders Nilsson – The flip side of the situation with Lehner is that of Nilsson. Just a little over a year older than Lehner, Nilsson was finally given legitimate responsibility for the first time in his NHL career in 2016-17 and he flourished. His .923 save percentage and .267 GAA were just marginally better than Lehner, but a major step up from his previous performances. Perhaps the Sabres, who truly do need to commit to Lehner or not, are afraid that re-signing Nilsson would send the wrong message, but he has definitely earned that consideration. If the Sabres don’t bring back Nilsson, they’ll have to search for a veteran backup to the oft-injured Lehner anyway. It’s not a simple problem and how Boterill solves it will impact his start with the organization.

Other UFAs: D Cody Franson, D Dmitry Kulikov, D Taylor Fedun, D Erik Burgdoerfer, D Mat Bodie, F Derek Grant, F Cole Schneider, F Cal O’Reilly

Projected Cap Space: The Sabres currently have only $50.2MM committed to 2017-18 contracts by way of 11 forwards and five defensemen. (CapFriendly) The extensions for RFA’s Lehner, Foligno, Girgensons, and Larsson, all of whom will be safe from expansion, as well as roster hopefuls Alexander Nylander and Brady Austin will eat up some of that space. However, even if the cap ceiling remains at $73MM, Buffalo has nearly $23MM of space to work with and if Matt Moulson is an expansion casualty, as has been rumored, there’s another $5MM in relief. That should give them more than enough space to accommodate those young players, re-sign Gionta, extend or replace Nilsson, and still have the flexibility to explore the free agent market for better fits on the blue line than Franson or Kulikov and a game-changer up front.

Atlantic Notes: Condon, Girgensons, Ullmark, Larkin

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Senators goaltender Mike Condon is having a strong sophomore NHL season and is poised to earn a nice raise from the league minimum salary he’s earning this season.  He has posted a 2.49 GAA and a .914 SV% in 38 appearances between Pittsburgh and Ottawa and may be tempted to try and seek out a starting job as an unrestricted free agent in the summer.  Don Brennan of the Ottawa Sun proposes that Condon should stick with the Sens even though he’d likely have to cede the starting job to Craig Anderson for one more year.

The scribe suggests that a three year, $5MM deal could be palatable for both Condon and the team.  For the 26 year old goalie, it would represent a sizable increase in pay and give him a nice guaranteed deal for someone that was on waivers from Montreal at the start of the season.  From Ottawa’s perspective, a deal like that would give them some stability beyond next year when Anderson becomes a free agent without really breaking the bank.

Elsewhere around the Atlantic:

  • Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News suggests that forward Zemgus Girgensons and goalie Linus Ullmark are the most likely options to be selected by the Golden Knights in the expansion draft in June. Girgensons had showed signs of a developing offensive game in his first two years but has tailed off since Dan Bylsma took over behind the bench; he has a career low 14 points (6-8-14) in 64 games this season.  If he isn’t taken by Vegas, the Latvian could be a strong trade candidate in the summer.  As for Ullmark, he has mediocre numbers at the AHL level this season but showed some good upside in a 20 game stint in Buffalo in 2015-16 which could make him an intriguing backup option with several years of team control for the Golden Knights.
  • Detroit forward Dylan Larkin is getting more comfortable as he transitions back towards his natural center position, writes Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press. The 20 year old sophomore started the year there but early struggles saw him shifted to the wing.  However, with the season all but over, the Red Wings plan to keep him there for the remainder of the year.  After a 45 point rookie campaign, Larkin has just 14 goals and 11 assists in 67 games this season.

Seravalli’s Latest: Team Priorities Leading To The Trade Deadline

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In his latest column, TSN’s Frank Seravalli looks at all 30 NHL teams (plus a note about the Vegas Golden Knights) and what their priorities are as they get closer to the deadline.  The whole article is well worth the read but here is a sampling of some of the highlights:

  • While the Sabres are likely to move pending unrestricted free agents Cody Franson and Brian Gionta, center Zemgus Girgensons (who is set to be a restricted free agent) could be someone teams look at as a reclamation project. Girgensons had a breakout year under former coach Ted Nolan in 2014-15 but has struggled since Dan Bylsma has taken over.  His role has considerably diminished this season which makes him an intriguing ‘change of scenery’ candidate.
  • The Blue Jackets could be poised to strike on what is shaping up to be a buyers’ market when it comes to goaltending. Given where the team finds themselves, Seravalli suggests that they may want a more proven backup behind Sergei Bobrovsky.  Youngsters Anton Forsberg and Joonas Korpisalo are poised to battle for the number two job with Curtis McElhinney now in Toronto but neither have much NHL experience.  One possible hiccup for Columbus could be the fact that a lot of the goalies believed to be available are signed beyond this season which may not appeal to them given the progress that Forsberg and Korpisalo have shown.
  • Although the Red Wings don’t appear to be entering selling mode any time soon, one area that GM Ken Holland may look to improve on is their cap situation. They have roughly $68MM committed for next year already (though Johan Franzen’s $3.95MM cap hit is including and he’ll be back on LTIR) and have a few restricted free agents including forwards Tomas Tatar and Andreas Athanasiou.  If they want to entertain the idea of keeping pending UFA Thomas Vanek around, they’ll need to free up some money and this might be the right time to accomplish that.
  • Seravalli wonders if this might be the year for the Senators to consider dealing away their first round pick. With Clarke MacArthur’s concussion symptoms not subsiding as quickly as anyone hoped, there is a void on the left side that needs to be addressed and their trade assets (such as Curtis Lazar and Nick Paul) won’t be enough by themselves to secure a legitimate top winger.
  • With the Canucks not likely to really be buyers or sellers at the deadline, they could be a team in the market for a reclamation project or two to try along the Sedins, similar to what Edmonton did with Patrick Maroon last year, a move that has worked out quite well this season. However, considering that they’re unwilling to move draft picks this year, being able to bring a player like that in may prove to be a bit more difficult.

Snapshots: Kings, Hunlack, Bogosian

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In his latest column, ESPN Insider Pierre LeBrun takes a look at the Los Angeles Kings roster and suggest strategies for the upcoming expansion draft. LeBrun boils the issue down to two names: Brayden McNabb and Dustin Brown. If the team wishes to protect McNabb, they’ll have to go the “eight skaters” option, since Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin and Alec Martinez will undoubtedly need protection. If they do, they put at risk some of their big names up front, including former captain Dustin Brown. While Brown is coming off the worst year of his career, he’s turned it around a bit this season and may be an interesting option for the Vegas team to bring in a veteran forward who could immediately become their first captain.

On the other hand, if they choose to leave McNabb exposed he may not necessarily be the selection since he only has one year remaining before becoming a highly sought after free agent in 2018. At 27, the shutdown defender would have teams lining up to bring him into the fold, and he’ll be looking for a substantial raise from the $1.8MM he’ll make next season.  For the Kings, just like every other team, the expansion draft will be a game of chicken with George McPhee and the Vegas front office.

  • In Toronto, a nickname has surfaced for the veteran third pairing of Matt Hunwick and Roman Polak; “Hunlack”, as many fans refer to the duo has been chided incessantly by the analytics community for their constant struggle with possession metrics. While the two rank terribly in terms of Corsi and Fenwick, head coach Mike Babcock dismisses the notion that they’re unplayable. When asked by Chris Johnston of Sportsnet what makes up a good game for them, Babcock replied “There’s a bunch of ways to look at the game. So Corsi’s one, maybe. But who turns the video on and rewinds to see if those shots actually hit the net or not? Because our math and theirs don’t add up. So what I do is I say: ’Did the puck go in or did they get scoring chances against?'” While the metrics available to the public don’t necessarily share Babcock’s assesment of the pairing, he does seem to imply that the Maple Leafs’ internal numbers don’t match up exactly.  Perhaps even though ’Hunlack’ doesn’t generate shots like Toronto’s other pairings, they can be effective in other ways – or maybe it’s just talking them up for the trade deadline.
  • For Buffalo, their season-long struggle with injuries is starting to see an end. After Jack Eichel has rejoined the team and shown why he shouldn’t be forgotten as last season’s second-overall pick, the team got more good news today. Zach Bogosian, out since the beginning of November with a knee injury, took full part in today’s practice and should be back before long. Now they just have to figure out a way to motivate Zemgus Girgensons and Evander Kane, both of whom will skate on the fourth line tonight against the Los Angeles Kings.

Sabres Notes: Girgensons, Eichel, Okposo, Bogosian

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As part of his latest 30 Thoughts column, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that the Sabres are receiving calls regarding struggling forward Zemgus Girgensons.  The Latvian has seen his role and ice time decrease in recent weeks and has found himself on the fourth line lately.

The 22 year old former first rounder (14th overall in 2012) is only two years removed from a 30 point season, one where he only played in 61 games.  Since then, under new head coach Dan Bylsma, Girgensons has just 23 points in 99 games and just five of those have come this season.

Despite playing less and less, GM Tim Murray is telling teams that the asking price on Girgensons isn’t dropping simply because he isn’t playing well right now.  While there’s no word on what the cost would be to get him, Friedman notes that the Ducks showed some interest last summer but Buffalo was asking for one of Anaheim’s young defensemen in return, a price they clearly weren’t willing to pay.

With a cap hit of $1.15MM, Girgensons is cheap enough to fit on the cap for most teams if the Sabres eventually get what they’re looking for in a trade.  He will be a restricted free agent once again this offseason after settling on a one year deal back in September.

More from Buffalo:

  • In their 6-3 win over Los Angeles last night, the Sabres paired up Kyle Okposo and Jack Eichel for the first time and as Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News notes, the two showed some instant chemistry as they combined for six points. This combination was likely envisioned back in the summer when Okposo signed a seven year deal but an early season ankle injury to Eichel shelved those plans, at least temporarily.
  • Also from Harrington, defenseman Zach Bogosian skated for the first time on Tuesday since suffering a sprained MCL back on November 1st. There remains no timetable for his return, however.  Although Bogosian was off to a tough start before going down (no points in nine games), he has logged heavy minutes for the Sabres since being acquired from Winnipeg back in February of 2015.

Atlantic Notes: Girgensons, Jurco, Rask

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The Sabres are showing some concern with center/left winger Zemgus Girgensons, who has just one shot on goal in his last five games, writes Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News.  In their last game, he found himself dropped to fourth line and saw just 9:07 of ice time, his lowest since getting injured in a game in the first period back in January.

Girgensons acknowledges that he is still adjusting to playing a more structured style under Dan Bylsma compared to the looser style under previous coach Ted Nolan, who the 22 year old thrived playing under.  In particular, Bylsma would like to see him drive the net much more often:

“He should be a guy that should be peeled off the goalie every time he’s on the ice. He should be getting to that hard area to score a goal. It’s something we know he can do and it’s something he’s got to do to have success in his game.”

Girgensons has just a goal and three assists in 21 games this year, not the start he was looking to get off to after signing a one year, $1.15MM deal back in September.

Other notes from the Atlantic Division:

  • Detroit’s Tomas Jurco, who is expected to return to the lineup tomorrow, dropped 15 pounds over the offseason, notes MLive’s Peter J. Wallner. Jurco felt that he was more of a scoring threat when he was faster so instead of bulking up as he had the past couple of seasons, he decided to slim down in the hopes that doing so will help him rebound from a rough 2015-16 where he had just four goals and two assists in 44 NHL games, a season that also saw him become a frequent healthy scratch.
  • Boston goaltender Tuukka Rask has made an adjustment to his goaltending style and as a result, the unpredictability for shooters is paying early dividends, writes Fluto Shinzawa of the Boston Globe. In recent years, Rask has strictly used the reverse VH goaltending style and while he’s comfortable doing so, his penchant for doing so in all situations was coming back to bite him at times in the past.  Now, he’s staying upright more often, making it tougher for opponents to know how he’s going to attack each shot and the results are certainly there so far.  Rask sits second in the league in goals against average (1.62) and tied for fourth in save percentage (.940) through 16 games so far this season.

Atlantic Notes: Wisniewski, Girgensons, Marner

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Despite plenty of postseason success the last two seasons resulting in two trips to the Eastern Conference Finals and a Stanley Cup Finals berth in 2015, the Tampa Bay Lightning have ultimately come up short of reaching their goal. Returning almost entirely the same roster for 2016-17, the Lightning should again be among the best teams in the east and one certainly capable of winning the Stanley Cup. And despite not adding much impact talent from outside the organization this summer, a minor addition might be the “missing piece” in the Lightning’s championship puzzle, opines Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times.

Right-handed defenseman James Wisniewski, who missed all but one shift of the 2015-16 season because of an ACL tear, was signed by Tampa to a PTO and has an excellent chance of making the team out of camp. As Smith notes, the Lightning ranked 28th in the NHL in power play efficiency and that’s an area Wisniewski specializes in. The 11-year-veteran has tallied more than half of his 53 career goals on the man-advantage and has twice recorded seven in a single season.

The Lightning do list Anton Stralman, Braydon Coburn and Andrej Sustr as right-side defenders, though as a left-handed shooter, Coburn could potentially play on either side. Tampa also re-signed RFA Nikita Nesterov, another starboard-side shooter, further congesting that side of the blue line depth chart. But, as Smith writes, when GM Steve Yzerman reached out to Wisniewski, he indicated the team had been looking for a right-handed shot on the blue line who could help out on the man advantage and that should improve his chances of finding playing time in Tampa Bay.

Elsewhere in the NHL’s Atlantic Division:

  • After a down year in 2015-16, Zemgus Girgensons is ready to turn the page and hopeful a consistent role with the Sabres will help him get back on track, writes John Vogl of The Buffalo News. Girgensons had a strong sophomore season in 2014-15 recording 15 goals and 30 points in 61 games. But under new head coach Dan Bylsma and moving back-and-forth from center to wing, Girgenson netted just seven goals and 18 points in 71 contests this past season. Bylsma is prepared to start the season with the  22-year-old Latvian at center with the hope it will allow him to rebuild some of his confidence. Girgensons inked a new one-year deal worth $1.15MM as a RFA and is banking on a much better season in 2016-17.
  • Mitch Marner, selected fourth overall in 2015 by Toronto, is not a sure bet to make the Maple Leafs roster to open the 2016-17 campaign but if he keeps performing as he did Monday night, his chances look good. According to Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun, Marner was “electric” on the ice and generated several quality scoring chances for the Leafs. Marner finished with two assists in the Ottawa Senators 6 – 3 win over Toronto but the 19-year-old pivot was the best player on the ice for either team and took a great first step in convincing the Leafs he is ready for the NHL.

Sabres, Girgensons Settle On One-Year Deal

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The Buffalo Sabres and Zemgus Girgensons have reached agreement on a one-year contract, as first reported by TSN’s Travis Yost, via Tweet. Sportsnet’s Chris Johnson reports that the deal is worth $1.15MM. The Sabres confirmed the signing on their website.

Girgensons is coming off a disappointing season, tallying 18 points while netting just seven goals in 71 games. In 2014-15, Girgensons appeared to be on the verge of a breakout as he potted 15 goals and 30 points in 61 contests as a 21-year-old with the Sabres. More was certainly expected of him last season but Girgensons won’t turn 23 until January and still has the ability to be a key building block moving forward for Buffalo. He is poised to center Buffalo’s third line behind Ryan O’Reilly and Jack Eichel.

The signing leaves D Rasmus Ristolainen as the team’s sole remaining RFA. After re-upping Girgenson, the Sabres still have over $7MM in cap space—enough to cover both this deal and a new contract for the still unsigned Ristolainen.

 

Atlantic Division: Remaining RFAs

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We are less than a month away from the start of the World Cup and training camps. However, there are still 15 restricted free agents remaining, and many of them are not who you would expect to be unsigned at this point. Two NHL teams’ leading scorers, four top-four defensemen, and several other high quality players are still looking for new deals.

Let’s continue our break down of the remaining RFAs by taking a look at the Atlantic Division:

Buffalo Sabres – $8.15MM in cap space, according to Cap Friendly – Like the Anaheim Ducks, the Sabres have two RFAs remaining; also like the Ducks, it’s their third line center and number one defenseman. Zemgus Girgensons and Rasmus Ristolainen were the Sabres’ first round picks in 2012 and 2013 respectively. Ristolainen lead all Sabres defensemen with 41 points (good for fourth in team scoring) and averaged nearly three more minutes of ice time per game than the next skater. Over his three-year career he has been counted on to be an all-situation defender, starting more than 57% of his shifts in the defensive zone and still leading all Sabres defensemen in scoring over the last two seasons. The Sabres will want to lock him up long-term.

Meanwhile, Girgensons had something of a down year in 2015-16, dropping from 30 points to 18 despite playing 10 more games. Expect a one-year contract in the $1MM range as he looks to rebound.

Tampa Bay Lightning – $6.59MM in cap space, according to Cap Friendly – Lightning GM Steve Yzerman managed to re-sign Steven Stamkos and extend Victor Hedman, but has yet to sign their leading scorer from last season: Nikita Kucherov. Kucherov has put up seasons of 65 and 66 points and will be looking for a Filip Forsberg-type contract. Forsberg also was coming off back-to-back mid-60 point seasons and signed long-term in Nashville for six years at $6MM per. While the Lightning could likely make that salary work this season, it’s next summer that has to be looming large for Yzerman. The other two members of the Triplet Line, Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat, and starting goalie Ben Bishop all need to be re-signed, though Bishop figures to be traded to avoid losing him for nothing in the expansion draft.

The Lightning also have defenseman Nikita Nesterov to sign. The young depth defenseman will be looking for a bigger role after the team bought out Matt Carle in June. He’ll likely sign for a short “show-me” contract to prove he can continue to be a regular on a Cup contending team.

You can read our review of the Pacific Division RFAs here.

Snapshots: Alzner, Vermette, Girgensons

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After undergoing surgery to repair a sports hernia in June, Karl Alzner reports (via Tarik El-Bashir of NBC) that everything is going according to plan and he should be ready when training camp opens. Because the hernia came alongside a groin injury, Alzner is not quite ready to write himself a clean bill of health:

I was working out after the first week [following the procedure], which was fast. The hernia is going to be fine. The only thing is the groin; I’m still waiting for that to be 100-percent.

Alzner is currently the active NHL leader in consecutive regular season games played, with 458 (also a Captials’ record) after only missing playoff games last season. He’ll look to continue that streak as a big part of the Captials defense.

  • The Anaheim Ducks added a veteran forward today when they signed Antoine Vermette to a two-year contract, bringing in the recently bought-out center for $1.75MM per season. The Ducks released some of his thoughts on the matter today in a series of tweets, with Vermette discussing their rough play-style: “You play the Ducks, you know you’re in for a tough game. They’re skilled and big. I’m glad to be on their side.”  Another tweet from Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register had Vermette saying that he didn’t expect the buyout, and that “at no point” did Arizona bring it up with him.
  •  It seems as though almost half the teams in the NHL have now been linked to Jimmy Vesey prior to him becoming a free agent at midnight tonight. While once again reporting that Buffalo is still in the hunt, Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News gives us an interesting tidbit at the end of his latest column.  Harrington thinks it’s possible that the team would move Zemgus Girgensons if they were to be able to sign Vesey. Girgensons is currently a restricted free agent, and is coming off a down year in which he only scored 18 points. The former 14th-overall pick had a much better year in 2014-15 though, when he scored 15 goals and 30 points in just 61 games, leading some to believe he could be a key piece going forward for any rebuilding club.

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