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Free Agent Focus: New York Rangers

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Free agency is less than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens.  There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Rangers.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Alexis Lafrenière – Just under three years ago the Rangers watched the lottery balls bounce their way as they were fortunate enough to win the sweepstakes for Lafrenière. At the time the 21-year-old looked like a can’t miss first overall pick having been dominant in the QMJHL and the World Juniors. But now just three years later the Rangers are facing quite the dilemma with the young forward. On one hand he is one of their few valuable trade chips, however, given their cap crunch his cap hit will likely give them a functional player on a reasonable contract.

Lafrenière has played a lot of bottom six minutes and hasn’t really seen the offensive opportunities that other first overall picks have had, however he also hasn’t shown the same skill level or skating as some of the other first overall picks before him.

Lafrenière had a career high 39 points this season in 81 games and did a much better job driving play than he had in previous seasons. However, he also enjoyed much more favorable deployment than in previous seasons which leads one to wonder if he will have better numbers in a different role under a new head coach.

Regardless of who is signing his checks next season Lafrenière is likely to be playing under a two- or three-year bridge deal with a cap hit like the $2.1MM that teammate Kaapo Kakko is playing under.

D K’Andre Miller – Miller’s next contract is going to make for a very interesting negotiation. He is the Rangers best left shot defenseman and played at a very high level for the past two seasons including this past year where he posted nine goals and 34 assists in 79 games. While 43 points total isn’t elite for a defenseman, his 38 even strength points are. Miller saw very little powerplay time and still managed to post very strong offensive numbers.

While his offensive numbers are good, he and partner Jacob Trouba went through some long stretches this season where they couldn’t keep the puck out of their own net. While they turned it around, Miller’s defensive struggles could work against him in negotiations. It’ll be interesting to see how the Rangers navigate their negotiation with the 23-year-old St. Paul native. It’s unlikely they will give him the Rasmus Dahlin contract at a cap hit of $6MM, but an average annual value between $4MM and $5.5MM seems very possible.

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Patrick Kane – The Rangers acquired the three-time Stanley Cup champion at the trade deadline this past winter and while things didn’t end up the way they’d hoped, they didn’t give up a lot of assets to acquire the player. Kane recently had surgery to resurface his hip and will be ready to play in 4-6 months. He makes for a curious free agent because any team that fancies themselves a contender likely won’t give out a big cap number until they can see skate again after his recovery. If this is the case, Kane could wait until after his recovery to see who the contenders are next season before inking a deal. The issue there for Kane would be that most teams will be close to the cap ceiling by the time the seasons starts. Kane is still a very productive forward (when healthy), this past season he put up 21 goals and 36 assists in 73 games during the regular season and followed it up with a goal and five assists in seven playoff games. If he were healthy Kane would probably be looking at a three-year deal worth around $6MM. But, because of his injury I think he will need to wait and sign a one-year deal closer to the start of the season or in season once he has recovers from his injury.

F Vladimir Tarasenko – Tarasenko arrived from St. Louis to a lot of fanfare in New York but couldn’t help the Rangers get over hump in the Eastern Conference. The 31-year-old put up 18 goals and 32 assists in 69 games split between the Blues and the Rangers and struggled in the playoffs putting up just four points in seven games. The Rangers would probably like to sign Tarasenko to a short-term deal but given their lack of cap space they likely can’t pursue the winger. Tarasenko will be interesting negotiation as he struggled to drive play last season and isn’t the player he once was. He’ll still find work, and a good little pay day, but it won’t be at anything close to the $7.5MM he made on his previous deal.

G Jaroslav Halák – It’s hard to believe that Jaro Halák is still chugging along at the tail end of his NHL career. He has struggled in recent years, but the veteran continues to find work in the NHL on one-year contracts. Halak hasn’t posted a .905 save percentage in any of the past three seasons but has been able to stay slightly above average in expected save percentage. Currently Halák is a good backup option for a team that is looking for average goaltending 20-25 nights of the year. He will likely be able to fetch a one-year contract at around $1MM.

Other UFAs: Niko Mikkola, Tyler Motte

Projected Cap Space

The Rangers emerged from a quick rebuild just a few seasons ago and had plenty of draft capital and a lot of salary cap flexibility. Now just a few years later the Rangers are in a very precarious salary cap situation as they have just $11.8MM in cap space with 14 players signed for next year. While that is a bit alarming, the good news for New York fans is that most of the core is signed for at least the next two years to fairly reasonable contracts. That being said, there are a few deals that general manager Chris Drury would probably like the opportunity to dump should an opening arise.

The club likely won’t have room to extend Kane or Tarasenko without moving out a very good player and given the age of both players they may want to pass on doing so. The Rangers are also two years out from having to give superstar netminder Igor Shesterkin a new deal, one which could potentially eclipse $9MM annually if he can duplicate his 2021-22 season in the next two seasons. With all of that going on, it’s unlikely that there will be big changes this summer on Broadway.

 

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Minor Transactions: Gatcomb, Veinbergs, Hanna

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The Abbotsford Canucks announced today that they have signed forward Marc Gatcomb to a one-year AHL contract extension. Gatcomb doesn’t offer much in the way of offence having put up just three goals and five assists in 45 games this season. It was the first full AHL season for the 23-year-old after he spent four years at the University of Connecticut.

The Woburn, Massachusetts native was never drafted to the NHL and had previously signed as a free agent last summer after wrapping up his college career. He had a stint in the ECHL with the Kalamazoo Wings dressing in six games and tallying a goal and three assists but wrapped up the season in Abbotsford. He was praised by Abbotsford general manager Ryan Johnson as being one of the most improved players and seemed to gain the trust of head coach Jeremy Colliton. This was evidenced in the playoffs where Gatcomb appeared in all six of the club’s playoff games.

In other minor transactions:

  • Tampa Bay Lightning 2022 seventh round draft pick Klavs Veinbergs committed to Colorado College today. The 20-year-old will begin his college career after spending last year with the Lincoln Stars of the United States Hockey League where he put up 12 goals and 16 assists in 50 games. Veinbergs has represented his country in multiple international tournaments and made a bit of noise at the World Juniors in the summer of 2022. He is the fourth Latvian drafted by the Lightning with the last one being in 2013 when Tampa Bay selected Kristers Gudlevskis.
  • Canadian defenseman Shane Hanna signed an extension today to remain in Germany and play with the Starbulls Rosenheim of the DEL2 league. Hanna, a native of New Westminster, British Columbia previously played 78 games with the Texas Stars of the AHL where he put up two goals and 11 assists. The 29-year-old has fared better offensively the past four years but has bounced around in the process playing in Slovakia, Italy, and Denmark.

January Calder Trophy Watch: Forwards

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The middle of the season is a common time for awards check-ins in the NHL, and for good reason. Enough sample size is under our belts to cross off some early-season hot and cold streaks, and it’s given some time for players to grow into impact roles for new teams.

That’s especially true with the Calder Trophy, tracking the best rookie in the league. Young players are especially susceptible to streakiness, for better or for worse. Many players’ seasons have evened out somewhat, and it’s as good a time as any to take a look at where things stand for a handful of top Calder Trophy candidates, this time at the forward position.

Forwards

Matthew Beniers, Seattle Kraken

Beniers stands as the clear front-runner for the Calder in most circles, and for good reason. He leads all rookies in goals (17) and points (36), and is playing serious minutes at 17:05 per game. He’s one point behind Andre Burakovsky for the Kraken lead in scoring, and he’s been a crucial part of Seattle’s improvement from basement dweller to playoff contender in 2022-23.

The 2021 second-overall pick was a “safe floor, unsure ceiling” type of player when he was drafted. With this kind of production so early in his career, Seattle can be optimistic that Beniers will hit his first-line center ceiling as his defense improves. He’s a poor 43.7% in the faceoff dot, but that’s been a problem for the entire Kraken squad, as they don’t have a single player over 50%.

Cole Perfetti, Winnipeg Jets

Along with the rest of the Jets, Perfetti is thriving offensively under head coach Rick Bowness. He had a solid seven points in 18 NHL games last season, maintaining his rookie status, but this season leads rookies with 20 assists.

While he has thrived playing with some of Winnipeg’s top talent, Perfetti’s point production is impressive in its own right. Very little of his scoring has come on the power play, he has just four points there. He’s sixth on the Jets in scoring, and while he isn’t receiving top minutes quite yet, nearly 15 minutes a night is still fine for a player his age. Look for his goal-scoring to improve throughout the season, too; he’s shooting at just 8.2%.

Mason McTavish, Anaheim Ducks

After a 2022 World Juniors for the ages, McTavish has transitioned well to the NHL on a struggling team. Anaheim’s systems have been a mess all season, but McTavish has still managed 27 points in 45 games and is drawing some tough matchups in the top six.

Used on and off at the center position, McTavish is scoring without much support. He’s third on the team in points and his -14 rating is actually one of the better ones on the team. Selected immediately after Beniers in 2021, it’s looking like an incredibly strong top-five from that class.

On the cusp: Matias Maccelli and Dylan Guenther (ARI), Kent Johnson (CBJ), Jack Quinn and John-Jason Peterka (BUF), Wyatt Johnston (DAL), Juuso Parssinen (NSH), Noah Cates (PHI)

Loan Roundup: 01/06/22

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After Team Canada put gold medals around their neck last night to conclude the 2023 World Junior Championship, a variety of prospects under NHL contract were loaned back to their minor or junior teams today. We’ll keep a running list of those transactions right here.

All transactions are provided by CapFriendly.

  • The Columbus Blue Jackets returned defenseman Stanislav Svozil to the WHL’s Regina Pats. Drafted 69th overall in 2021, Svozil had an incredible tournament with eight points in seven games for Czechia, winning a silver medal — the country’s first medal since 2005. Quickly looking like a draft steal, Svozil has 37 points in just 28 games, and he’ll return to playing with presumptive 2023 first-overall pick Connor Bedard.
  • Also from Columbus, 2022 sixth-overall selection David Jiricek is returning to the Cleveland Monsters, Columbus’ AHL affiliate. Jiricek also helped dominate from the Czech blueline, recording seven points and a staggering +10 rating in seven games. He played his first two NHL games before the tournament and has an impressive 20 points in just 19 games with the Monsters.
  • The Dallas Stars returned dynamic Canadian forward Logan Stankoven to the WHL’s Kamloops Blazers. Stankoven, who has a decent shot at making the team out of training camp in 2023-24, had three goals and 11 points in seven games with the Canadians. He was a second-round pick of the Stars in 2021, another budding draft steal.
  • Gritty forward Reid Schaefer, selected with the last pick of the first round in 2022 by the Edmonton Oilers, is returning to the WHL-leading Seattle Thunderbirds. Schaefer played at the bottom of the Canadian lineup and managed one assist in seven contests. He’s fourth on Seattle in goals with 15 in just 22 games.
  • Nashville Predators right-shot defense prospect Jack Matier was loaned back to the OHL’s Ottawa 67’s. The 124th overall selection in 2021 is amidst a breakout season in Ottawa, recording 26 points and a +24 rating through 26 games. He had one assist at the World Juniors.
  • The Vegas Golden Knights returned Czech forward Jakub Brabenec to the QMJHL’s Sherbrooke Phoenix. Drafted 102nd overall in 2021, Brabenec was just dealt to the Phoenix today from the Charlottetown Islanders. His scoring had taken somewhat of a dip before the trade with 25 points in 28 games, but a strong World Juniors performance should instill some confidence.
  • Vegas also sent forward Zach Dean to the QMJHL’s Gatineau Olympiques. Taken 30th overall in 2021, Dean has 35 points in 27 games with Gatineau and recorded a goal and two assists for Canada at the tournament.

Snapshots: Austria, Harkins, Kirkland

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Despite scoring twice with the goaltender out, Austria came up short in the relegation series at the World Juniors and will be dropped out of the next tournament. Norway will take their place next year, with Latvia (the other team in the relegation round) staying put. Austria was playing with house money already after finishing last in the previous two tournaments. There was no relegation in those years, meaning they got extra chances in the top tournament.

Norway won gold at the Division I level after going a perfect 5-0 against Denmark, Slovenia, France, Hungary, and Kazakhstan. Their group is incredibly young and will get the chance to bring back nearly the entire roster for next year, meaning they should be competitive at least. Only three of their skaters (and one goaltender) are 19.

  • After clearing waivers yesterday, the Winnipeg Jets have sent Jansen Harkins to the minor leagues as expected. The depth forward will get a chance to play big minutes again, as he re-joins the Manitoba Moose. In six games to start the year with Manitoba, Harkins had five goals and nine points.
  • The Anaheim Ducks have recalled Justin Kirkland once again, after sending him down just yesterday. The 26-year-old forward made his NHL debut this season and has appeared in five games so far, failing to register a point.

Snapshots: Armia, Lafreniere, Nemec

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The Montreal Canadiens will make Joel Armia a healthy scratch tonight, sitting him along with Johnathan Kovacevic in favor of Anthony Richard and David Savard. Armia is in the second season of a four-year, $13.6MM contract he signed in 2021 after the Canadiens’ run to the Stanley Cup Final. Unfortunately, the five goals he scored during that run are exactly five more than he has this season. Armia hasn’t scored yet in 26 games and has just three assists, following a six-goal, 14-point 2021-22 campaign.

It’s understandable for him to be out of the lineup with that kind of production, but it will cause some speculation about his future in Montreal. The 29-year-old Finn was once an incredibly valuable, versatile player that could move up and down the lineup. Now it looks like his NHL career might be coming to an abrupt end.

  • Alexis Lafreniere entered the rumor mill when the New York Rangers decided to make him a healthy scratch recently, but The Athletic’s staff writes that the team has no intention of trading him at this point. The 21-year-old first-overall pick has struggled to find any level of consistency in the NHL, though his supporters will point to an even-strength scoring rate that is encouraging. One thing is clear: if he doesn’t miraculously find another level in the second half, he won’t be getting the massive second contract that many top picks earn. Lafreniere is scheduled to become a restricted free agent without arbitration rights, meaning he could be forced to accept a qualifying offer under $900K for next season, should the Rangers play hardball.
  • After Slovakia was eliminated from the World Juniors by a Connor Bedard overtime goal, captain Simon Nemec has been assigned back to the Utica Comets of the AHL where he’ll continue to play this season. The young defenseman logged huge minutes for his country at the tournament, racking up five points in five games while barely missing out on a chance to play for a medal. When Nemec was drafted, he committed immediately to playing in North America if the New Jersey Devils wanted him to, even if that meant spending the whole year in the minors. For Utica he has looked right at home, recording 11 points in 24 games so far.

Canada Adds Owen Beck To 2023 World Juniors Roster

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Hockey Canada announced Sunday morning they have added Montreal Canadiens prospect Owen Beck to their roster for the remainder of the 2023 World Junior Championship. He replaces forward Colton Dach, who will miss the team’s playoff games with an injury suffered yesterday against Sweden.

Beck, the 33rd overall selection in the 2022 NHL Draft, was one of the last cuts from Canada’s original Selection Camp roster for the tournament announced in early December. He’s dominating on both sides of the puck in the OHL this season, potting 17 goals and 23 assists for 40 points in 30 games with the Mississauga Steelheads.

The Peterborough, Ontario-born Beck had an impressive training camp with the Canadiens, getting fans excited for a potential draft steal. Still 18 years old, this will be Beck’s debut for Canada’s national team at any level.

It’s the second time in recent memory that Canada has lost a Dach brother to injury. Kirby Dach, who was expected to be one of the most dominant players at the 2021 tournament, was injured in preliminary action and missed much of the following NHL season with Chicago.

His brother Colton remains a Blackhawks prospect after Kirby was traded to Montreal this summer, and he had two assists through four group-stage games for Canada. Hopefully, the captain of the WHL’s Kelowna Rockets can resume his final season of junior hockey soon.

Canada’s 3-1-0 record in the group stage got them a second-place finish in Group A. They begin their push for gold tomorrow with a quarterfinal game against Slovakia.

Atlantic Notes: DeBrincat, MacDonald, Kapanen

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Senators winger Alex DeBrincat has had a very strong month of December with 18 points in 13 games heading into today’s action.  When they acquired him at the draft, he was viewed as someone that they likely felt was a long-term piece of the puzzle.  However, Postmedia’s Ken Warren suggests a long-term agreement for the pending RFA might not be a slam dunk.  With the ownership situation not settled, do the Sens have a firm commitment that they’ll be able to spend right to the Upper Limit next season?  With the team struggling, do they want GM Pierre Dorion working out another long-term contract for a forward, one that would limit their flexibility?  A new deal for the 25-year-old probably pushes Ottawa into a situation where their top six forwards will account for more than 50% of the cap next season.  Would they be better off spending that money to upgrade the back end for a more well-rounded roster?

Accordingly, Warren wonders if there’s a scenario in which Ottawa trades DeBrincat at the trade deadline.  If they’re out of the mix and DeBrincat isn’t overly open to a long-term agreement, it’s possible that the smarter long-term play would be to move him.  It’d be a notable step back for the Senators at least in the short term but if they’re still out of the playoff picture in a couple of months, it’s one that might get considered if there’s no extension in place by then.

More from the Atlantic:

  • Lightning prospect Cameron MacDonald is on the move in the QMJHL as Saint John announced that they’ve moved the forward to Gatineau for a pair of draft picks. The 19-year-old was a fifth-round pick by Tampa Bay back in 2021 (160th overall) and is averaging more than a point per game this season with 16 goals and 13 assists in 27 contests.  In order for the Lightning to retain his NHL rights, they’ll have to sign MacDonald by June 1st and how he fares down the stretch with the Olympiques will go a long way toward determining if he’s worthy of an entry-level deal.
  • Canadiens prospect Oliver Kapanen has signed a one-year extension with KalPa through the 2023-24 season, the Finnish team announced. The 19-year-old was a second-round pick by Montreal in 2021 (64th overall) and has seven goals and seven assists in 32 SM-liiga games this season.  He’s currently playing for Finland at the World Juniors where he has two points in three games so far.

Poll: Who Will Finish With The Best Chance At First Overall?

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Success at the World Junior Championship doesn’t guarantee success in the NHL. It’s a junior tournament, after all, and there are countless examples of players who star there only to find it difficult to translate their game to the professional level. Esa Keskinen, for example, is one of the highest-scoring players of all time with 31 points in two tournaments. The fifth-round pick never came over to North America (likely due to his small stature during a different era of hockey), playing out his career in Finland and Sweden instead.

But even as scouts are starting to place less importance on performance there, the World Juniors plays an important role in something else for future stars: an introduction to a wider audience.

In the grand scheme of hockey fans, there aren’t many watching Regina Pats games. They might not get a chance to see future first-overall pick Connor Bedard on a very regular basis, if at all. So when he puts up seven points in one game or comes within one goal of the Canadian record from a ridiculous angle suddenly fans from across the league start dreaming about him pulling on their sweater next season.

Tanking for the first-overall pick doesn’t work all that well in hockey. The draft lottery gives hope to around half the league (depending on trades) and causes anxiety for those clubs at the bottom of the standings. Going into tonight’s games, the Chicago Blackhawks have the best odds of winning the right to select Bedard. Chicago has lost nine of their last ten and 25 of 33 on the year. Their .303 winning percentage would be the third worst in the salary cap era if it continued all year. The two teams ahead (or behind) them though – the 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche and 2019-20 Detroit Red Wings – both failed to win the lottery.

Colorado fell to fourth after three teams jumped them, and got the consolation prize of Cale Makar. The Red Wings fell three spots too and had to settle for Lucas Raymond.

There have been some changes since then, meaning Chicago (or whoever finishes last) won’t drop quite so far. But coming last still by no means guarantees the top pick. In fact, a team like the Montreal Canadiens could theoretically end up with an even greater chance, even without finishing last. The Canadiens have their own pick and Florida’s, who are also currently out of the playoff picture. Should the Panthers drop even further, Montreal would essentially have two cracks to move up.

There is also a lot of hockey left to play. One more win would tie the Blackhawks with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Two would bring them even with the Anaheim Ducks, who have played three more games. There’s a long race to be run by quite a few teams.

So as you watch Bedard (and Adam Fantilli) pile goals onto an overmatched Austrian squad, who do you think will enter the draft lottery with the best chance? Cast your vote below and explain how you see it playing out in the comments.

Who will finish with the best chance at the first-overall pick?
Chicago Blackhawks 43.95% (450 votes)
Anaheim Ducks 16.50% (169 votes)
Columbus Blue Jackets 8.98% (92 votes)
Arizona Coyotes 8.89% (91 votes)
Montreal Canadiens 7.23% (74 votes)
Philadelphia Flyers 6.84% (70 votes)
San Jose Sharks 4.00% (41 votes)
Other 3.61% (37 votes)
Total Votes: 1,024

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Blue Jackets To Loan David Jiricek For World Juniors

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The Blue Jackets have made a decision on Czechia’s request to loan defenseman David Jiricek for the upcoming World Juniors.  As Aaron Portzline of The Athletic reports (subscription link), Columbus will let the 19-year-old participate in the event where he’ll play alongside two more team prospects in forward Martin Rysavy and defenseman Stanislav Svozil.

Jiricek was the sixth-overall pick by the Blue Jackets in the summer despite missing significant time due to an injury sustained in the original version of the World Juniors last December.  This will be his third time participating in the event (not including the canceled edition).

His first season in North America has been a successful one to the point where it was possible that Columbus could have declined the Czechs’ request in order to allow him to continue his momentum with AHL Cleveland.  Jiricek is on a nice run with the Monsters with an impressive 11 points in his last 10 games and is likely to have another NHL stint at some point in the second half of the season after getting into two games back in late October.  It seems likely that Columbus will want to keep him below the 10-game threshold to not activate the first year of his contract.

The roster for the Czechs hasn’t been finalized yet – they have three cuts still to make – but as things stand, they’re likely to send 12 NHL-drafted prospects to the event with Jiricek being the headliner.  On top of that, the team will likely also have draft-eligible winger Eduard Sale, who is expected to be a lottery selection in June.  Accordingly, they could be an under-the-radar team to keep an eye on.

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