Morning Notes: Slafkovsky, Nemec, Lyon
There’s a new number one on Bob McKenzie’s 2022 NHL Draft Rankings for TSN. Juraj Slafkovsky has overtaken Shane Wright for the top spot on a list that is developed by polling active scouts around the league. The Slovakian forward is 6’4″, skilled, and has already proven he can dominate at the senior level. Slafkovsky won tournament MVP at the Olympics, scored nine points in eight games at the World Championships, and was a force for TPS in the Liiga playoffs.
With just over a week to go before the draft in Montreal, the Canadiens’ choice is still unclear in the first-overall slot. The first round will be held on July 7 at the Bell Centre, with the official order now set following the completion of the Stanley Cup Final.
- Slafkovsky, Wright, and Logan Cooley appear to have separated themselves in the top three, though Craig Morgan of PHNX Sports notes that the Arizona Coyotes, slotted to pick third, could also be eyeing Simon Nemec. One of the top-ranked defensemen this year (along with David Jiricek), Nemec has the offensive upside and skating ability that make scouts drool in today’s NHL. Should he climb that high, it would be an incredible achievement for Slovakian hockey, with two picks in the top three selections.
- He won the Calder Cup over the weekend but Alex Lyon is getting suspended anyway. The Chicago Wolves netminder has been given a two-game AHL ban for his actions following the game, giving the finger to the Springfield crowd multiple times. The 29-year-old netminder will have to serve it whenever he is next on an AHL roster, though it’s not clear where that will be. Lyon is an unrestricted free agent this summer as a one-year, two-way deal with the Carolina Hurricanes expires.
Snapshots: Point, Mock Draft, Kassian
As the Stanley Cup Final is set to commence in two days, the Tampa Bay Lightning and Colorado Avalanche will retake the ice today to practice ahead of their last four to seven games of the season. Of note from Tampa’s side of things is that injured star center Brayden Point continued to take part in practice today and took line rushes for the first time, centering a line between Nick Paul and Ross Colton, per The Athletic’s Joe Smith. However, assistant coach Jeff Halpern said after practice that “he didn’t know if you could read too much” into Point’s status, noting that it was a light session.
Tampa will be waiting anxiously to get an answer on when Point can return. Given the uncertain health of Nazem Kadri on the other side for Colorado, Tampa Bay having their full center depth available to them would give them a much greater chance at winning their third straight Stanley Cup.
- With the 2022 NHL Draft now within a month, The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler, one of the top public prospect evaluators, released his 2022 NHL Mock Draft, taking team needs, consensus, and intel into account aside from just his own rankings. Although more and more doubt remains around the status of Kingston Frontenacs center Shane Wright as the Montreal Canadiens’ no. 1 overall pick, Wheeler still has Wright listed in the first spot. Rounding out the top five is winger Juraj Slafkovsky to the New Jersey Devils, center Logan Cooley to the Arizona Coyotes, defenseman Simon Nemec going first off the board among d-men to the Seattle Kraken, and defenseman David Jiricek headed to the Philadelphia Flyers.
- The first buyout window of the offseason opens July 1, and Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli has Edmonton Oilers winger Zack Kassian at the top of his list of 10 buyout candidates for this summer. Kassian, who carries a cap hit of $3.2MM through 2024, mustered just 19 points in 58 games this season and averaged under nine minutes per game in the playoffs. With the 31-year-old forward only set to continue declining, Edmonton could take the buyout penalty to free up more space to improve their depth scoring. The buyout for Kassian is relatively benign, per CapFriendly, with a cap hit of $666,667 in 2022-23, $1,866,667 in 2023-24, and $966,667 in 2024-25 and 2025-26. It offers $2.5MM in savings upfront in 2022-23, an appealing number for general manager Ken Holland.
Latest On Montreal Canadiens Draft Strategy
The Montreal Canadiens had a miserable season in 2021-22, a campaign where they finished last in the NHL and saw their longtime general manager lose his job. The main benefit of that poor performance was revealed last month when the Canadiens won the draft lottery and the right to pick first overall. For years now, many have assumed that Ontario native Shane Wright, a center for the OHL’s Kingston Frontenacs and one of the rare players to be granted exceptional player status by the Canadian Hockey League, was a lock to be selected first overall regardless of who held the pick.
Apparently, though, that assumption may have been premature. According to Arpon Basu and Marc Antoine Godin of The Athletic, (subscription link) it is “not a slam dunk” that the Canadiens will select Wright first overall. Additionally, Basu and Godin state that the rapid rise of Slovakian winger Juraj Slafkovsky has “left the Canadiens quite impressed.” So, despite Wright being the consensus top talent in the draft for several years now, (although that consensus has gotten a bit weaker in recent months) both Basu and Godin believe that it “wouldn’t be very surprising” if the Canadiens passed on Wright in favor of Slafkovsky.
The implications of the Canadiens’ decision are relatively far-reaching. The New Jersey Devils hold the number-two selection in the draft, and have in the past flirted with the idea of trading their pick for more immediate help. The Devils already have previous number-one picks Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes locked in as their top-two centers for a long time, so if a top center like Wright is available with their pick, could we see a bidding war for the pick unlike anything we have seen at drafts in the past?
If the Canadiens pass on Wright, could that heighten any potential desire they may have to trade up with their second first-round pick (acquired from the Calgary Flames for Tyler Toffoli) in order to still come out of the first round having drafted a center? The Canadiens’ front office is led by former New York Rangers GM Jeff Gorton, who has in the past shown an eagerness to trade up in the first round to acquire his scouts’ desired player, as he did in 2018 and 2020, in order to draft K’Andre Miller and Braden Schneider, respectively.
With Wright seen as such a clear number-one pick for so long, the Canadiens possibly going in a different direction could lead to one of the more entertaining drafts in recent memory. That idea is perhaps emphasized by the fact that the draft is being held in Montreal. Based on the information gathered by Basu and Godin at the NHL Combine, the potentially chaotic scenario of the Canadiens passing on Wright to take Slafkovsky may be likelier than most people believe it to be.
Morning Notes: Draft Prospects, Pokka, Kravtsov
More than 70 percent of PHR voters believe that Shane Wright is still the top choice for the Montreal Canadiens at the upcoming 2022 NHL Draft, and if you asked Scott Wheeler of The Athletic, he’d agree. Wheeler has Wright in the No. 1 spot on his updated top-100, though does note that he is no longer in a tier above the rest of the field.
Interestingly enough, Juraj Slafkovsky, who overtook Wright on Corey Pronman’s recent list, is much further down Wheeler’s. The big winger isn’t even the top-ranked player from Slovakia, as the prospect prognosticator continues to rank Simon Nemec higher than most of the other publicly available lists. As always, the entire list is worth a read, given how detailed Wheeler dives into some of the lower-ranked names.
- Highly-ranked prospects don’t always work out though, something the Chicago Blackhawks found our first hand with Ville Pokka, the 34th overall pick in 2012 and a big part of the return for Nick Leddy two years later. Pokka, despite strong offensive numbers in the AHL, never could put together his defensive game well enough to earn an NHL opportunity, and the defenseman left for the KHL in 2018. After four years in Russia, he’s headed to Sweden, where he’ll join Farjestad next season.
- Vitali Kravtsov, another prospect that hasn’t quite panned out just yet, has apparently turned down an offer from the KHL as he eyes a return to North America. The 22-year-old winger is a pending restricted free agent but will still be under control of the New York Rangers, should they issue him a qualifying offer. In his partial season with Traktor this year, Kravtsov proved he can play to a high level in the KHL, scoring 13 goals and 23 points in a combined 34 games.
Poll: Who Should Montreal Draft At No. 1?
For quite a while, Shane Wright was held up as the undisputed first-overall pick for 2022. From the moment he received his exceptional status in the OHL in the spring of 2019, through his rookie season in the OHL, there was really no one considered his rival. The young center had dominated minor hockey, scoring hundreds of points in his final U16 season (playing above his age group), and immediately burst onto the major junior scene with 39 goals in 58 games for the Kingston Frontenacs.
Wright was made the youngest alternate captain in team history, and finished with an impressive 66 points in 58 games, despite starting the season as a 15-year-old. Unfortunately, he was not only robbed of the last few games of the OHL regular season by a worldwide pandemic, he also ended up missing an entire year of development in 2020-21, waiting for a league that never resumed play.
When the league came back in 2021-22, there still weren’t really any whispers about another player taking over the top spot. In September 2021, Bob McKenzie of TSN published his preseason rankings, writing that “it’s not even close” and all ten of the polled scouts had Wright at No. 1. In fact, McKenzie suggested that Wright was so far ahead of the field, he likely would have gone first overall in the 2021 draft, ahead of Buffalo Sabres defenseman Owen Power.
But then the season began, and right away Wright’s lead started to shrink. After missing an entire year of hockey he–understandably–started rather slow, scoring just seven goals in his first 17 games, while registering just 19 points in the same stretch. That wasn’t the dominating two-way center that everyone had expected, it was arguably not even the best player on his own team.
Suddenly, it became a race. Players like Logan Cooley, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Matthew Savoie started to get more press as rising options, though they still weren’t expected to really challenge for the top spot. It was actually Ivan Miroshnichenko that grabbed one of the ten spots in McKenzie’s mid-season scouts poll. That scout specifically pointed at Wright’s “lack of dominance” and suggested the Russian forward had a “higher ceiling.”
Though Miroshnichenko has fallen out of the race–through no fault of his own–the same arguments are being made for Slafkovsky and Cooley, as potentially having a higher ceiling than Wright. The question is whether that is more a case of overexposure to an exceptional status player like Wright, who has been in the public eye for so long, or if his season really did bring up reason for concern.
In terms of not being “dominant,” some may argue that Wright found his game and became exactly the player that many expected, once he shook off the rust. After scoring 19 points in his first 17 regular season games, he would record 75 in his final 46, finishing the year eighth in league scoring. Every player ahead of him is either already drafted or substantially older than Wright. His goal scoring did decrease, as he wasn’t even able to match the 39 he scored as a rookie, but Kingston was also a much more well-rounded team this time around, with plenty of options to put the puck in the net.
Still, his main competition had great performances of their own. Slafkovsky especially has been suggested as the better pick, including by Corey Pronman of The Athletic, who recently listed him ahead of Wright as the best player available. The Slovakian winger has performed brilliantly at every challenge, including taking home MVP honors at the Olympics.
So who should Montreal select at the very top? Do they go with the player who everyone believed would be No. 1, or go with the late riser who has shown a consistent ability against higher level competition? What about the American center, who will be entering the college system that general manager Kent Hughes is so familiar with? Is there a chance they go with someone else entirely, believing that there is a higher upside on defense perhaps?
The Canadiens met with several of the top names at this week’s scouting combine, doing their due diligence when they can. Cast your vote below on who you think they should pick later this summer, and make sure to leave a comment to explain why!
Who will be the first-overall pick?
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Shane Wright 72% (706)
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Juraj Slafkovsky 17% (163)
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Logan Cooley 8% (76)
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Other 4% (35)
Total votes: 980
Prospect Notes: Wright, Jiricek, Utunen
The NHL Scouting Combine is underway for the first time since 2019–the last two years the event has been canceled due to COVID-19 concerns–and Shane Wright has all eyes on him as the potential (but not consensus) first-overall pick. Mike Morreale of NHL.com tweets that Wright will have interviews with 12 different teams, including the Montreal Canadiens, New Jersey Devils, and Arizona Coyotes, teams that will select in the top three later this summer.
While no sure thing to go first overall, it is unlikely that Wright drops much further than that meaning other teams with interviews booked don’t have a chance unless they found a way to trade up. The Devils at No. 2 have at least considered a move, should one present itself, though it still would need quite the return package after they moved up by way of the lottery.
- David Jiricek, in the race for the top defenseman in this year’s draft, will not attend the combine according to Morreale. The young Czech just finished his World Championship run on Sunday (winning bronze) and now he won’t be able to meet with teams in person. Jiricek was fourth on NHL Central Scouting’s final ranking of international skaters, just behind Simon Nemec, the other player vying to be the first defenseman off the board this year.
- Toni Utunen is one of the players whose draft rights will expire this week, and Rick Dhaliwal of CHEK TV reports that the Vancouver Canucks have no interest in signing him. The 22-year-old defenseman had 11 points in 59 games while playing in Finland’s Liiga this season. He will be an unrestricted free agent if not signed by June 1.
Snapshots: Flames Negotiations, Wright, Brossoit
The Flames’ season may be over, but the work for their front office is only just beginning. Not only is the beating heart of their franchise, Johnny Gaudreau, a pending unrestricted free agent, but they also have potential future captain Matthew Tkachuk as an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent who is inching closer to his own unrestricted free agency. The next month is set to be one full of crucial negotiations for the Flames, and according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the team would like to begin those as soon as possible.
Friedman reports that the Flames will move “aggressively” to extend those two players, in order to have a quick understanding of “what the landscape is” in terms of their futures. The Flames can hardly be blamed for their urgency, given the importance of both Gaudreau and Tkachuk to everything they have been building. Flames GM Brad Treliving has previously said that he would “move heaven and earth” to retain Gaudreau, and one has to assume he will carry that same attitude towards retaining Tkachuk. But as is the case with most contract negotiations in the NHL, Treliving’s “heaven and earth” will likely take a backseat to the most important factor: dollars and cents.
Now, for some other bits of news from across the NHL:
- Before free agency can begin, there is another major event on the NHL’s calendar that will need to be completed: the entry draft. We previously covered how it’s not a guarantee that Kingston Frontenacs center Shane Wright will go first overall to the Montreal Canadiens, and there is now another development regarding that connection. Friedman reported yesterday that the Canadiens’ brass led by Jeff Gorton and Kent Hughes will meet face-to-face with Wright at the NHL combine. Just as making the first overall selection comes with a lot of opportunity so comes a lot of responsibility, and the interactions between the Canadiens and Wright could go a long way towards making the team feel more comfortable in his projection if he does end up the number-one pick.
- Injuries proved fatal for the Golden Knights this past season, as the team missed the playoffs for the first time in their franchise’s history. One of the Golden Knights still dealing with an injury is goaltender Laurent Brossoit. Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek reports that Brossoit had hip surgery and that the team is “hoping” that he will be available for the start of next season. With starter Robin Lehner already recovering from his own surgery and the late-season breakout of Logan Thompson in mind, it’s clear that Vegas’ future in net is anything but settled.
Shane Wright Not A Lock To Go First Overall To Montreal
As soon as the Montreal Canadiens emerged victorious from the 2022 NHL Draft Lottery, many were quick to crown center Shane Wright as the next Habs star – but is the first overall pick truly a foregone conclusion? Wright is the consensus top player in the draft, but is not quite the homerun prospect that leads some draft classes. The Athletic’s Corey Pronman and Max Bultman sat down with Montreal beat writers Arpon Basu and Marc Antoine Godin on The Athletic Hockey Show and the group did not reach the same consensus that Wright will absolutely be selected first overall. Of course, Wright is certainly the favorite; the Kingston Frontenacs captain does everything well and plays a mature, two-way, team-first game that is always attractive in a young player. Wright recorded 94 points in 63 games in the OHL this season even after not playing last season during the league’s closure. Wright’s development and ability are not in question and, though every team wants a franchise center, Montreal does have an immediate need of a top-six center and Wright could be ready to go. With all that being said, the group discussed that Wright did not exactly shatter scoring expectations this season and his inconsistent effort at times has drawn criticism. It begs the question that if Wright is not an elite offense talent and doesn’t possess an elite work ethic, is there more upside elsewhere on the board?
Another center option could be USNTDP standout Logan Cooley, and while he won’t play in the NHL next season as he heads to the University of Minnesota, there is also some belief that Wright could also return to junior next year due to his lost season in 2020-21. Cooley is also a two-way pivot with a well-rounded game and a minority of pundits feel he does have more offensive potential than Wright. The group also mentioned that a future top-pair defenseman is a need for the Canadiens and Simon Nemec or David Jiricek could meet that description. However, neither appears to be in the mix for first overall and the Habs are almost certainly not going to trade down from No. 1 in a draft hosted in Montreal. As such, the group lands on upstart winger Juraj Slafkovsky as the most likely alternative to Wright as the Canadiens’ top choice. Though wingers are largely considered to be less valuable than centers, Slafkovsky’s draft stock has skyrocketed this season to a point where it would not be as great a shock to see him surpass Wright. The big Slovakian forward is arguably the more dynamic offensive player and even more he has proven it at a number of levels this year. Slafkovsky recorded 10 points in 31 games plus seven points in 18 playoff games with TPS in the Liiga, Finland’s top pro league. He added 18 points in 11 games with their U-20 team. Yet it is internationally where he really shined; Slafkovsky was named MVP of the Olympic tournament with seven goals in seven games for Slovakia and then recorded nine points in eight games at the World Championship (where Habs GM Kent Hughes was reportedly scouting him.)
Hughes and company also present an interesting twist in the decision at No. 1. Hughes and Director of Hockey Operations Jeff Gorton are both new to Montreal, as are head coach Martin St. Louis and highly valued advisor Vincent Lecavalier. Not only are they playing catch-up on draft analysis, but they are also bringing new and potentially contrary viewpoints from the existing scouting and analytics staffs for the Canadiens. The group opined that the odds of all of these key decision makers being in agreement on the pick is unlikely, and if Wright is not the top option for Hughes or Gorton then that certainly opens up the conversation. It is worth noting that Hughes, Gorton, and St. Louis all have close ties to USA Hockey, which could be a boost for Cooley, while their scouting department is majority European, which could benefit Slafkovsky.
At the end of the day, Wright remains the heavy favorite to be selected first overall, as he has all season. However, it is not the guarantee that it is in some seasons or that many expected it to be this year – and it worth knowing that other options exist. With the 2022 NHL Draft being held in Montreal, the drama around the Canadiens’ top pick will be entertaining at the very least and the reaction should they take Slafkovsky or Cooley instead of Wright will be fascinating. Montreal is in difficult shape with an expensive, veteran lineup that did not produce this season and certainly cannot afford to miss on this pick.
NHL Central Scouting Releases Final 2022 Rankings
The final rankings are out from NHL Central Scouting, and even with his relatively unremarkable season, Shane Wright maintains his grip on the top spot. The Kingston Frontenacs captain leads all North American skaters and still figures to be the first-overall selection in 2022. Dan Marr, director of NHL Central Scouting, had this to say about the OHL forward:
Shane Wright is the complete package as an NHL prospect. He is a strong stride skater who possesses deceptive speed and quickness to beat defenders, evade checking or lead a rush. He has elite hockey sense with his vision, anticipation and composure to execute quickly on plays and has proven that he can carry the load and lead the way when it’s needed in game situations.
Just behind him is Logan Cooley, but after that, there is a bit of a surprise. Cutter Gauthier has climbed to the third spot on the North American chart ahead of players like Matthew Savoie and Conor Geekie, an impressive rise for the USNTDP product. Gauthier is committed to Boston College for next season and has continued to learn how to best utilize his 6’3″ frame to become one of the most dynamic forwards in the draft.
The top ten North American skaters are:
- Shane Wright, Kingston Frontenacs
- Logan Cooley, USNTDP
- Cutter Gauthier, USNTDP
- Matthew Savoie, Winnipeg Ice
- Conor Geekie, Winnipeg Ice
- Pavel Mintyukov, Saginaw Spirit
- Kevin Korchinski, Seattle Thunderbirds
- Luca Del Bel Belluz, Mississauga Steelheads
- Isaac Howard, USNTDP
- Owen Beck, Mississauga Steelheads
On the international side, Juraj Slafkovsky has climbed all the way to No. 1 after an incredible season that included winning MVP in the Olympics. The Slovakian forward also played well in Finland’s top league and should be selected in the first few picks of this summer’s draft. Marr had this to say about him:
Juraj Slafkovsky has that power winger element that NHL Clubs covet and his game has shown continual development this season while playing in the Pro Liiga in Finland and with the bronze medal-winning Team Slovakia at the Olympics. He is a smooth and agile skater for his size and has the strength, smarts and offensive tools to be productive. What has been most impressive is the ability he’s shown to learn and quickly adapt his play to get results at every level he’s competed this season.
Slafkovsky’s rise means Joakim Kemell dropped to second, despite recently playing extremely well at the U18 Worlds. He’s followed by other top talents including another Slovakian, Simon Nemec, in the third spot, who could easily be the first defenseman off the board this year.
The top ten international skaters are:
- Juraj Slafkovsky, TPS
- Joakim Kemell, JYP
- Simon Nemec, Nitra
- David Jiricek, Plzen
- Marco Kasper, Rogle
- Jonathan Lekkerimaki, Djurgardens
- Danila Yurov, Magnitogorsk
- Liam Ohgren, Djurgardens (Jr.)
- Lian Bichsel, Leksands
- Brad Lambert, Pelicans
The full rankings, including the goaltending lists, can be found here.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Snapshots: Cooley, Miller, Blackwood
For quite some time now, Shane Wright, the consensus preseason favorite to go first overall in the 2022 draft, has been falling closer and closer to the pack. The Kingston Frontenacs forward has been good after missing all of last year when the OHL was forced to cancel the season, but he hasn’t been outstanding. With 15 goals and 43 points in 31 games, he now sits fourth on his own team in scoring (though he is the only draft-eligible among that group) and was no longer a unanimous top pick in Bob McKenzie’s midseason scout poll for TSN.
Now, a leading publication has put him second. Chris Peters of Daily Faceoff ranks Logan Cooley as the best prospect in the 2022 draft, ahead of Wright, and notes that he is a more dynamic player at the moment. The USNTDP center was always expected to go near the top of the draft, but going first overall would certainly be a big climb for a player that wasn’t even in the top five in many preseason polls.
- J.T. Miller has been the focus of trade speculation for the last few weeks as the Vancouver Canucks march toward the deadline, but Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet may have thrown some cold water on that in his latest 32 Thoughts column. He starts it by explaining that the Canucks have investigated the idea of re-signing Miller, not trading him, and notes that that could be one of the reasons why a name like Conor Garland has surfaced in recent days. The Canucks need to clear cap space and Miller’s $5.25MM hit is the fourth-highest among Vancouver forwards, but he’s also been the team’s most reliable and productive player this season. He would not be eligible for an extension until July 13 when free agency opens and he officially enters the final year of his current contract.
- One other note from Friedman’s column regards New Jersey Devils goaltender MacKenzie Blackwood and his heel injury. The netminder is getting a second opinion over what treatment method to pursue and there is no timeline for his recovery. Blackwood last played on January 19, allowing four goals on 17 shots to the Arizona Coyotes.