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Trade Candidates: Derek Ryan

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

In 2016-17, Derek Ryan made headlines as a 30-year-old playing in his first full NHL season after working his way to the highest level through levels like the Canadian University system and pro leagues in Hungary and Austria. The Carolina Hurricanes forward was even nominated for the Masterton Trophy to recognize the perseverance and dedication in took to stick with his NHL dreams much longer than most. In 2017-18, the narrative has changed from Ryan, the feel-good story, to Ryan, the legitimate NHL asset. If you thought Ryan’s 29 points in 67 games as an unheralded, aging rookie was impressive, take a look at his 26 points through 20 fewer games so far this year. Ryan has quietly established himself as a capable, versatile forward and with the Carolina Hurricanes again looking like the odd man out in the Metropolitan Division, the next chapter in Ryan’s story could be that of a key Trade Deadline acquisition.

Contract

Ryan re-signed with the Hurricanes this past summer on a one-year, one-way deal worth $1.425MM. By the Trade Deadline, Ryan will count for less than $500K against the salary cap. He will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.

2017-18

In 47 games, Ryan has nearly matched his offensive totals from last season, and then some. Ryan has already tied his 11 goals and is only three assists shy of his 18 and has done so in 20 fewer games. Ryan is on pace for 19 goals and 26 assists if he stays with the Hurricanes, though even the smallest hot streak, or perhaps a change of scenery, could push him over 20 goals or 30 assists. This season, Ryan has also been a superior five-on-five player, earning the trust of head coach Bill Peters and, in turn, more ice time. Even with a greater role and more exposure this season, Ryan has elite Corsi numbers and has been the best possession player on the roster. Ryan continues to be an asset at the face-off dot too, with a team-leading 56.3% success rate on nearly 600 draws thus far. He’s seen a slight uptick in hits and takeaways without an increase in penalty minutes as, despite a -13 rating that isn’t a true reflection of his game, he continues to be a two-way force who suppresses the opposition better than most of his fellow Carolina forwards. He often takes the ice against the best the other team has to offer and, compared to the team’s -17 goal differential, does well for himself. By all accounts, Ryan has taken another step forward in all facets in 2017-18.

Season Stats

47 GP, 11 goals, 15 assists, 26 points, -13 rating, 10 PIM, 92 shots, 16:18 ATOI, 56.9 CF%

Potential Suitors

While most teams did not even his know his name a few short years ago, Ryan will now be a sought-after depth addition at the Trade Deadline. A responsible, well-rounded forward, Ryan is the type of player that nearly any team could use for the stretch run. With the versatility to play all three forward positions, the depth to his game to line up on the second, third, or fourth line depending on fit and need, and a cap hit that is a total non-factor, there is spot on every contender’s roster for Ryan this season. Who could use him the most? The league’s top team, the Tampa Bay Lightning, are a bit top-heavy on offense and could use a player like Ryan to add balance to their forward corps. The San Jose Sharks and Philadelphia Flyers are in a similar boat. Neither of those three teams have a specific, identifiable need that Ryan could fill, but could greatly use the flexibility he provides as a depth asset.

More specifically, Ryan could be another option for the Pittsburgh Penguins in their continued search for a third-line center. However, the Hurricanes may want to avoid trading Ryan to one of the teams they would need to leapfrog to make the playoffs – especially one with back-to-back Stanley Cup titles. Two other top contenders, the Boston Bruins and Washington Capitals, could really use Ryan as an anchor on their fourth lines. Both teams could use an injection of talent on their energy line, as well as another forward who could fill in throughout the lineup, as they march toward the postseason. The Bruins’ responsible, two-way, possession-heavy game especially seems to fit Ryan.

Likelihood of a Trade

The Derek Ryan story has been a great one, but it’s time for the Carolina Hurricanes to move on. Ryan has been a major surprise and a great addition to the lineup the past two years, but the ’Canes face an uphill battle to make the playoffs and should get what they can for all of their impending UFA’s. If they so choose, Carolina could bring Ryan back in free agency, but it’s no use holding onto him for this season. The 31-year-old second-year NHLer faces a limited window to win the ultimate prize, a Stanley Cup, and in the midst of an outstanding season, he deserves to join a contender. Despite his amazing climb from the bowels of the hockey world to the highest level, Ryan remains a name that few people really know. Yet, expect him to quietly garner a lot of attention over the next month.

Minor Transactions: 12/21/17

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Who cares about a roster freeze. Despite the fact that teams can’t trade or waive players, there was quite a bit of movement around the league yesterday. Today is expected to be no different, and we’ll keep an eye on all the minor moves right here. Make sure to refresh throughout the day to keep up.

  • The Montreal Canadiens recalled Brett Lernout late last night, bringing the young defender up to the NHL for the first time this season. Lernout, 22, has three games under his belt for the Canadiens in the past, and will be another option for the team while Shea Weber nurses his foot injury.
  • The Washington Capitals have recalled Madison Bowey and Jakub Vrana back to the minor leagues once again, after executing a paper transaction yesterday to save some cap room. After reclaiming Nathan Walker off waivers yesterday, the Capitals are pushed right up against the salary cap and need to bank as much room on a day to day basis as possible. With Bowey and Vrana both playing well, neither are expected to actually leave the roster for any games.
  • The Ottawa Senators have recalled Andreas Englund from the AHL, giving them another defensive option for their three-game road trip. In a corresponding move, the team has placed Gabriel Dumont on injured reserve in order to make room for Englund on the roster.
  • The Boston Bruins have recalled Colby Cave from the AHL for the first time in his career, as Brad Marchand, Ryan Spooner and Riley Nash all deal with the flu. The trio are all game-time decisions for the team’s game against the Jets.
  • Tyler Bertuzzi is back up with the Detroit Red Wings, a week after being sent down. Bertuzzi has played just a single game with the Red Wings this season, but is a player they still hope can grow into something special. It’s not clear if Bertuzzi will get into the lineup right away, but with Luke Glendening suffering a hand injury yesterday there could be room for the young forward.

Erik Karlsson On The Trade Block?

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Erik Karlsson’s recent comments combined with the Ottawa Senators’ ongoing struggles has created a rumor firestorm that isn’t likely to die down any time soon. The Senators are 1-8-1 in their last ten games and are sinking further and further out of playoff contention this season. Owner Eugene Melnyk is unsurprisingly sensitive right now and Karlsson stating that he would not take a discount to re-sign in Ottawa when his contract expires after next season has rubbed Melnyk the wrong way, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman and Nick Kypreos.

That does not mean that Karlsson is being traded right away or even that the Senators plan to trade him at all. However, steps are being taken to allow a potential Karlsson trade to happen. Sportsnet reports that the Senators have asked all of their players with modified no-trade clauses  – Karlsson, Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman, Derick Brassard, Zack Smith, Alexandre Burrows, Nate Thompson, Clarke MacArthur, Dion Phaneuf, and Johnny Oduya – to submit their lists of team they would or would not be traded to, per the terms of each individual clause. For Karlsson, he has a a ten-team no-trade list that will now be on record for the Senators and GM Pierre Dorion, should they choose to make a move.

In the opinion of Kypreos, a move should be made and it should be made soon. Karlsson’s market value, the team’s poor performance, and the Senator’s relatively low revenue and unwillingness to spend to the salary cap ceiling all make a Karlsson extension extremely unlikely. Rather than wait until next season for Karlsson to become just a rental player, Kypreos believes that a trade should be made by this summer and the earlier the better. It is hard to imagine Ottawa getting a fair return for arguably the best defenseman in the NHL, but they will surely get a better deal trading Karlsson this season instead of next.

Yet, the public relations train for the Senators will keep rolling. No one will make it known that Karlsson is trade bait until an actual deal is finalized. The team has enough issues that they don’t need their best player disgruntled and the locker room in disarray. Karlsson being traded is a real possibility, but you won’t hear it from Melnyk or anyone else in Ottawa any time soon.

2018-19 Salary Cap Projected At $78-82MM

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At the board of governors meeting today, the league shared projections for next season’s salary cap. According to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic, that number is set to fall between $78-82MM depending on how the NHLPA uses their escalators. That’s an increase from this year’s $75MM ceiling, giving teams a little extra room in the budget for free agents and contract extensions.

The cap is based on projections of Hockey Related Revenue, a number that does not (and will not) include expansion fees. Those funds are given directly to the owners, and don’t necessarily filter down to the players. Still, it means that overall numbers are up for the league through inflation and growth, and will allow teams to spend a little more next season on their players.

It doesn’t necessarily mean every team will. There are currently eight teams with more than $10MM in cap room, including the Carolina Hurricanes and Arizona Coyotes, who have a combined $50MM in space. They, and others like them, will likely be closer to the salary cap floor once again next year, even with the new ownership in Raleigh.

Amazingly, there are also clubs like the Montreal Canadiens who usually don’t have trouble spending right to the cap but currently sit with over $9MM. While some teams like Toronto, Detroit and Chicago struggle to keep their rosters under the upper limit, Montreal has decided to keep quite a bit of room—perhaps for an offseason free agent pursuit?

The increasing cap will improve player salaries, but it will also make previous deals look more and more reasonable. Even Connor McDavid’s eight-year, $100MM extension could be surpassed by several players, as the maximum contract at an $80MM cap would be $16MM per season. John Tavares, Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson and others could all push to be the highest paid player in the league over the next few years.

Bo Horvat Potentially Out Long-Term; Canucks Recall Chaput, Demko

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As if our “Thankful For” series was a jinx, Bo Horvat was injured in Tuesday’s Vancouver Canucks game and will be out long-term. The team announced the injury is a broken foot, and that he will be out at least “multiple weeks.” Horvat is seeing a specialist to get a more accurate timeline. In light of that, the team has recalled Michael Chaput from the AHL along with Thatcher Demko.

The reason for Demko’s call-up is less obvious. As Patrick Johnson of The Province explains, it most likely is a move to get the Canucks as close to the salary cap as possible before placing Derek Dorsett on long-term injured reserve. That way they can receive the largest benefit from his injury status, and use his entire $2.65MM cap space if need be.

Horvat has been excellent for the Canucks this season, and with Brandon Sutter also currently on injured reserve the team’s depth at center will be tested. The pair were leading the team in ice time among forwards, meaning others like Sam Gagner and Henrik Sedin will need to step up in their absence. Vancouver, who have had an admirable start to the season, will have to find a new way to shut down their opponent’s top players.

Drew Doughty Pondering His Next Contract

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If you look early enough, the 2019 unrestricted free agent class looks like it could be historical. Erik Karlsson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan Ellis, Tyler Seguin, Jeff Skinner, Joe Pavelski, Artemi Panarin, Sergei Bobrovsky, Cam Talbot and many, many more are all set to become UFAs. Obviously the majority of those names will likely be re-signed by their current clubs, and many aren’t likely even thinking about their next contract just yet. One that is however is Drew Doughty, who recently spoke with Craig Custance of The Athletic concerning his upcoming free agency.

Drew DoughtyDoughty, always unfiltered, speaks about what he thinks negotiations would start at for both him and Karlsson and explains how he’ll try to be in touch with the Ottawa defenseman throughout the process. One specific quote, on where he thinks his salary would sit is extremely telling:

Right now, I guess we’d be gauging off what P.K. [Subban] makes. I think both of us deserve quite a bit more than that.

Subban currently holds the highest cap hit for any defenseman in the league at $9MM, with Brent Burns’ extension bringing him closest at $8MM next season. The idea that Doughty and Karlsson will command “quite a bit more” than that may be a tough thing for any team (especially an internal-budget team like Ottawa) to swallow, even if it is for a franchise defenseman.

Custance lists the Toronto Maple Leafs and Detroit Red Wings (two lead markets of The Athletic) as potential suitors for Doughty if he does hit free agency, though the defenseman is quick to point out that he loves the Los Angeles organization and is by no means saying he’ll be a free agent when his current contract ends. If he or any of the other franchise players do though, another interesting market to watch for will be the NHL’s newest landscape: Vegas.

We’ve examined the Golden Knights’ salary structure in the past, but it is important to once again note something in particular. Vegas has just four one-way contracts on the books for the 2019-20 season, one of which is David Clarkson who will continue to be on long-term injured reserve. The team has basically all but $10MM of the salary cap—which could be well in excess of $80MM by then—with which to spend the next few seasons, making them a dangerous player in free agency. While other teams are hampered by re-signing their own young players or dealing with the effects of bad contracts from the past, Vegas will have free rein to do what they please in the summer of 2019.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Toronto Maple Leafs Have Verbal Agreement With KHL Defender

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As always, Elliotte Friedman’s 31 Thoughts column for Sportsnet is a must-read for fans around the NHL as the scribe goes into situations in Arizona and Montreal. One interesting detail though surrounds the Toronto Maple Leafs’ pursuit of Igor Ozhiganov, a 25-year old Russian defenseman playing in the KHL.

Ozhiganov had been previously linked to the Maple Leafs when Lou Lamoriello and Mike Babcock personally met with him in Russia in a sort of recruitment visit, similar to the one they completed when trying to sign Nikita Zaitsev a year earlier. Ozhiganov was a teammate of Zaitsev’s for several years in the KHL and is clearly the next target for the Maple Leafs as they continue to search for NHL-caliber defensemen around the world.

Friedman states that other teams have been told that Ozhiganov has a verbal agreement in place with the Maple Leafs, and points out that the team could sign him as early as April 30th. Because of his age, Ozhiganov will be signing just a one-year entry-level contract similar to Zaitsev. Earlier this summer the team also reached into the SHL for both Andreas Borgman and Calle Rosen, of which the former has immediately worked out for the team. Borgman has been a staple on the Maple Leafs third pairing, registering five points in 22 games.

For a team that is so obviously willing to spend past the NHL salary cap to give themselves every competitive advantage, scouting players around the world who may not be on every team’s radar is a new trend. Ozhiganov will just be the latest in a growing group of undrafted players on the roster, which also includes Nikita Soshnikov and Tyler Bozak.

Snapshots: DeKeyser, Subban, 2019 Draft

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Some fans might have noticed this morning when the Detroit Red Wings recalled Brian Lashoff from the minor leagues, that they actually were over the NHL’s salary cap. Even though Lashoff makes just $650K, the team had already used nearly all the extra space provided by Johan Franzen’s long-term injured reserve stint. Well, the salary cap sleuths at CapFriendly have figured out how they were able to work it. Danny DeKeyser has been placed on long-term injured reserve for the time being, even though he’s expected to return before long (perhaps even this weekend)Reqo.

The Red Wings are playing with fire this season as they push right up against the cap ceiling, and could be forced before long to make a move to get rid of some salary. They already moved Riley Sheahan to clear a few million off the cap, and still they needed to use LTIR again so early on. Luke Witkowski’s suspension makes it tough, as though he forfeits the salary he would have earned the team does not receive a cap break. Even with the short-term injury to Trevor Daley, the team can’t afford to put him on IR and call up another player. They simply don’t have the money, unless DeKeyser is out much longer than expected.

  • Speaking of injured reserve, Malcolm Subban has been activated by the Vegas Golden Knights. The team has sent Dylan Ferguson back to his junior club, happy to have gotten into a game (and earned an NHL paycheck). Subban is a welcome sight for the Golden Knights, even with Maxime Lagace earning the win last night over Vancouver. Lagace has played admirably, but an .864 save percentage still won’t cut it for long in the NHL. Though Subban has little experience himself, most believe he is an upgrade in net.
  • Craig Button of TSN has more information on the 2019 draft, giving us an early look at his rankings for the draft still more than 18 months away. Jack Hughes is the easy favorite on top as he continues to cruise through his season with the NTDP, but there are some very interesting others on the list. Bowen Byram is perhaps a surprising #2, but anyone that saw his U17 performance will understand why Button has him here. The 16-year old defenseman is already playing (and playing well) in the WHL with the Vancouver Giants, and looks like he’ll have the size and mobility to develop into an all-situations stud down the line. Obviously, projecting 16-year old players is never an exact science and several will see their stock drop off in the next two years. Still, you can make an impression on scouts at this age, like Nolan Patrick did before losing most of his draft-eligible season to injury.

Talks Increase Between Red Wings, Athanasiou

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The final restricted free agent to be signed is Andreas Athanasiou, who has not been able to work out a deal with the Detroit Red Wings. Athanasiou has been skating in Switzerland to try and stay ready for the season should a deal be worked out, but there had been little discussion in recent weeks between the two sides.

That seems to be changing now, as Bob McKenzie of TSN reports that dialogue between Athanasiou’s agent Darren Ferris and the Red Wings has really increased in the last few days. McKenzie cautions that there is nothing imminent, and even suggests that Athanasiou could sign in Switzerland to start playing real games.

The Red Wings are actually off to a solid start to the year, going 4-2 in their first six games and scoring more than most expected. Some of that has to do with Mike Green’s impressive nine point performance in the early going, but the team has also leaned on younger players like Anthony Mantha, Dylan Larkin and Martin Frk. Should Athanasiou return quickly, perhaps the young guns in Detroit are better positioned to push this team close to a playoff spot than many believed before the season began.

Still, the Red Wings are in tough with the salary cap. According to CapFriendly, the team has used all of the space provided by Johan Franzen’s LTIR status and currently project to be over the cap by the end of the season. That means, in order to sign Athanasiou and bring him onto the active roster they’d need to make a corresponding move. If the reported $1.9MM (two years for $3.8MM in actuality) price tag is true, it’s a lot of room to move quickly. One option would be the much speculated Riley Sheahan, who comes in at just under $2.1MM, or sending at least two players down to the minor leagues. Detroit is already operating with just 22 players, one fewer than the maximum allowed for an NHL roster.

Performance Bonuses Still A Consideration For Maple Leafs

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The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of the teams in the league who are almost always right up against the salary cap ceiling. With their tremendous financial backing from corporate ownership, and a rabid fan base that is hard to scare away with even the most futile rosters, they use their situation to get every advantage possible. With that in mind, they’ve previously completed moves that a less wealthy team would just not be able to—moving David Clarkson (who was healthy but ineffective at the time) for the injured Nathan Horton for instance.

Auston MatthewsLast year brought the next wave of Maple Leafs stars, with rookies like Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Connor Brown and Nikita Zaitsev all finding great success as freshmen. While all of them were on inexpensive entry-level contracts, their excellent play earned them all hefty performance bonuses. Leading the way was Matthews, who earned $2.85MM thanks to his 40-goal performance. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet broke down the bonuses for the Maple Leafs, which totaled a whopping $5.37MM on the year, the second most of all-time.

Because the Maple Leafs were using long-term injured reserve (from the aforementioned Horton along with a few others) last season and were above the salary cap ceiling, that entire bonus pool of $5.37MM was applied to this year’s salary cap as an overage. That hurts their ability to manipulate the cap, but not nearly as much as it could in the future.

The Maple Leafs are still in relative safety when it comes to the cap, with their stars still vastly underpaid and a pair of long-term injuries to use as a cushion of sorts. They were able to use some of that room to bring in Patrick Marleau and Ron Hainsey to augment the roster, while seeing almost their entire core return from last year. The problem arises when these entry-level contracts start to expire.

Much has been written over the past year on the Maple Leafs impending contract negotiations with Matthews, Nylander and Marner, but little of it has concerned the impact bonuses could still have. With the team again over the cap and using LTIR, any bonuses earned will again be carried over. With the roster they’re currently carrying, there is the possibility for up to $6.25MM in bonuses, though it doesn’t look early like they’ll have to pay the maximum.

Matthews, with his explosive start looks like a good bet to max out at $2.85MM, though he’d have to finish in the top-10 in goals once again. He’s currently tied for fourth, though obviously it is still early. Nylander and Marner each could earn up to $850K again.

Calle RosenThe two wildcards are Swedish defenders Andreas Borgman and Calle Rosen. The pair have rotated in and out of the lineup early on, and are generally limited to the bottom pairing. If that changes because of injury, or they show improved ability and force head coach Mike Babcock into giving them more minutes they too could each earn up to $850K.

While performance bonuses are never exactly a bad thing—they do after all reward success—the Maple Leafs don’t want to have to deal with overages as they head into the next contracts for their big three. Though right now they project to have over $26MM in cap space for next season, that’s not including Nylander’s new deal or possible new contracts for James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak or Leo Komarov. Hacking 20% off that amount with another $5MM bonus penalty will certainly hurt their ability to re-sign the pending unrestricted free agents, and push them even closer to the 2018-19 cap ceiling where they really need to be careful.

Obviously, the Maple Leafs are quite a distance away from being locked into any cap situation. But they have to be considering how to manage the cap for the 2019-20 season when the rest of the big three (Matthews and Marner) move onto their next contracts. That’s not even considering a Jake Gardiner extension, as he’s headed for UFA status in the summer of 2019 as well. When the Maple Leafs are spending next offseason, don’t be surprised if they leave themselves a little bit of extra room to avoid an overage. If not, they could be putting themselves in a very tricky situation.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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