Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include Tampa Bay’s spot in the Atlantic, worst case odds for Detroit in the draft lottery, Henrik Lundqvist’s future, the backup situation for the Blues, Kyle Dubas’ tenure with Toronto, and a projection for the Flyers in the postseason.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

mydadleftme: Any chance you think the Lightning are avoiding first place so they don’t have to match up against the Blue Jackets again? Is it actually safer for them to play the Maple Leafs?

I wouldn’t say Tampa Bay was actively trying to avoid reaching the top spot in the Atlantic Division to avoid being matched up with Columbus again.  A big factor for them not them contending with Boston is their cold start to the season.  It wasn’t until mid-December that they started to find their form and in doing so, they left a lot of points on the table.  Let’s also give the Bruins some credit – they’ve earned their spot atop the standings.

I’ll touch more on Toronto later but I don’t think they’d be the easier matchup compared to a Wild Card team from the Metropolitan such as Columbus.  The Maple Leafs, when they’re on their game, have the firepower to keep pace with the Lightning.  The Blue Jackets or Hurricanes don’t.  Sure, Toronto may not be built for the postseason based on a general lack of physicality on the roster aside from a few players but Tampa Bay is somewhat of a finesse team as well which mitigates that concern somewhat.  If this winds up being the matchup (depending on if and when the games resume and if the playoff structure will be the same), it certainly won’t be an easy one.

tigers22: If the lottery takes a turn for the worse and the Red Wings get passed by three teams and select fourth, do you believe they will take a look at the top goalie prospect or trade down to collect more picks for this rebuild?

This is a really interesting question.  Detroit certainly needs goaltending in a big way and their depth at all levels isn’t great.  (Having said that, I think Keith Petruzzelli has at least a bit of upside.)  But, I don’t think Yaroslav Askarov is worth the number four pick.  The Red Wings could plausibly trade down and still get him closer to the back end of the top ten which would be the best of both worlds for your worst case scenario.

But is that the right way to go?  I’m not so sure.

It is quite risky to draft for need that early in the draft and with goaltenders, they usually take a lot longer than position players to get to the NHL level.  Chances are that players like blueliner Jamie Drysdale or winger Lucas Raymond would make an impact much sooner than Askarov would.

There’s also the distinct possibility that by the time that Askarov is ready to play in the NHL, Detroit’s goaltending need would be solved.  They have plenty of cap room to work with this summer so they’re going to be going after players like Jacob Markstrom, Robin Lehner, and Braden Holtby if they make it to the open market.  If they commit to one of them as their long-term starter, the need for Askarov would be lessened.  Of course, the draft falls before free agency so it’s not as if GM Steve Yzerman will know who his likely new starter will be by then.  If they did want Askarov though if this particular scenario occurs, they should be able to trade down for him.

met man: Now that Lundqvist has been demoted to third string, do you think he will consider retirement? I love the guy, but his time seems to have passed.

I think that would be Plan A for the Rangers at this point as it would avoid another season of the awkwardness that has seen Lundqvist play all of five games over the last two months (two of those coming in relief).  If he was to voluntarily retire, everyone would walk away and the goalie controversy would be over.

But why would the 38-year-old want to do that voluntarily?  While his contract was frontloaded, he’s still owed $5.5MM in salary for next season (which includes a $1MM signing bonus).  He has made a lot of money in his career but $5.5MM is $5.5MM.  Yes, Roberto Luongo walked away with some money left on the table but the total money owing to him over the final three years that were left on his deal is far less than Lundqvist’s salary so the situations are far from the same.

At this point, a trade is unlikely.  He doesn’t want to leave and with an $8.5MM cap hit, no one’s going to want him at that price tag.  That leaves two options – carry three goalies again or go for the buyout.  The former isn’t appealing as their cap space will be limited by the time they re-sign their other free agents and the latter isn’t appealing either as it involves paying a franchise legend to go away.  But it’s the lesser of two evils at that point.  If that happens, then Lundqvist can decide if he wants to try somewhere else or walk away and essentially retire as a Ranger (or close to it).  Doing it that way makes him a lot more money than if he was to retire following the season.

vincent k. mcmahon: If the Blues move Jake Allen this summer, would Ville Husso be Jordan Binnington’s backup or would they look at the FA market?

I would say it almost has to be Husso in that scenario.  They already have nearly $74MM in commitments to 17 players on the current roster for next season and that doesn’t include Alex Pietrangelo who they certainly want to re-sign.  It’ll take all of their remaining room and then some (perhaps Allen being moved) to get him signed so it’s unlikely they’ll be able to afford to turn to free agency to pay for a backup.  That market has gone up considerably the last few years with good second stringers getting more than $3MM per year.  That’s well out of the price range for St. Louis.

Back at the end of January, GM Doug Armstrong gave Husso a two-year, one-way extension worth $750K which gives him some cost certainty at that position.  If he remains in the minors next year, he’s an affordable injury recall and if he’s the backup, he’ll give the Blues some much needed financial flexibility.  There’s a risk going with Husso as Binnington’s backup but it’s one that is justified to take.

jimmertee: Does Dubas still have a job after an early Leafs playoff exit?

General managers don’t have anywhere near as short a shelf life as head coaches do.  It takes time for them to execute their vision for the roster and even longer to see if it’s the right approach or if tweaks or needed.  While Dubas has been with Toronto since 2014, he has only been in the GM chair for two seasons.  That’s not a lot of time to execute and evaluate his strategy.

Rightfully or not, he has gone all in on the big four up front which is going to leave a lot of positions in flux every year in terms of roster turnover while decisions will eventually have to be made regarding core players in Morgan Rielly and Frederik Andersen and how they can afford to keep or replace them.  Brendan Shanahan signed off on Dubas going the way he did with building his team.  Now he needs to let his GM navigate the salary cap challenges associated with those decisions.  I’m sure they’ve foreseen the challenges ahead long before they committed to this approach so there’s likely a plan in place already.

As for the potential for an early playoff exit, it’s certainly possible considering how much of an up and down team they were in the weeks leading up to the pause in the schedule.  At their worst, they could be swept pretty easily.  But when they’re on, they can play with the best of them.  If the standings hold and it’s a usual playoff format, they’d get Tampa Bay and I think they match up relatively well with them so a quick out would be far from a guarantee.  It’d be one of the tighter series in the entire first round.  But no matter how that plays out, Dubas should still be calling the shots for the foreseeable future.

Darkside830: How far will the Flyers go?

I’m not sold on Philadelphia just yet.  Time and time again, they’ve had hot streaks which have been immediately followed by lengthy winless droughts which give back most of what they gained in the standings.  Perhaps this layoff will be beneficial to them in that respect.

But how well will their scoring by committee approach work in the postseason?  Vegas showed two years ago that it’s doable but plenty of other times, top talent has helped push teams over the top.  The Flyers have a lot of quality players but their top talent isn’t at the level of some of the other teams in the division that they’ll need to push through in the postseason.

I’m also leery about trusting young goaltending in the playoffs.  Let’s give Carter Hart plenty of credit.  He has navigated the early trials and tribulations of the NHL rather well for someone that won’t turn 22 until the summer.  But this will be his first crack at the postseason and over the years, some top young goalies have faltered in their first test.  (Some have thrived too but it’s a question mark nonetheless.)

A month ago, I’d have had a hard time thinking they’d win a round.  I think that’s doable now.  But I still can’t see them getting past Washington in the second round, even if they happen to leapfrog them in the standings and get home ice advantage for that series.  Even if that was to occur, it’d still be a pretty successful season for the Flyers after missing the playoffs last season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Mika Zibanejad, the AHL affiliation shuffle, David Pastrnak’s chances of leading the league in goals, Carolina’s potential Stadium Series opponent, Montreal’s offseason activity, and Joe Thornton.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next week’s mailbag.

MoneyBallJustWorks: I know it could be recency bias but is Mika Zibanejad one of the most underrated players in the NHL?

A five-goal game will certainly change his underrated status in a hurry.  I don’t think I’d go as far as calling him one of the most underrated in the league but he has certainly flown under the radar for a while.  (At least until this past Thursday.)

Part of the season is that up until recently, Zibanejad has been someone that hasn’t necessarily lived up to his draft billing on the offensive side of things.  He was a sixth overall pick of Ottawa but he has only reached the 50-point mark three times in his career (and one of those saw him get 51).  That lack of offensive progression was part of the reason the Senators sold him fairly low with Derick Brassard being the focal point of the return.

That deal looks quite serendipitous now for the Rangers but he even had a slow start there over his first couple of seasons.  Yes, his production jumped last year but in those circumstances, the question is always if that was just a fluke or a sign of things to come?  It’s looking like the latter and as such, his days of being underrated are likely coming to an end.

He’s still signed for two more years after this one at a $5.35MM AAV which is suddenly looking like quite the bargain for New York.  Given the continued demand for top centers, he’s going to be well-positioned to get a huge raise if he makes it to the open market in 2022 at the age of 29.

lennyleonardseye: What are St Louis’ options when it comes to finding a new AHL affiliate? Can they get it done soon or will they have to share a team again like they did in 17-18? What happens to the 5-year contract they had? Why does Vegas keep snatching up the Blues’ AHL teams?

The Blues decided to answer this one for me as they announced on Friday that they’ve signed a five-year affiliation agreement with Springfield which continues the seemingly annual game of affiliation musical chairs.  According to AHL reporter Mark Divver, Carolina (Charlotte) may join in on the fun as well.

With about a dozen teams still being independently owned (the rest are owned by NHL teams directly), there is the potential for this type of movement with some regularity.  The opportunity to get a team that’s closer to the parent franchise is always tempting while other times, the NHL team will want more of a say when it comes to stocking the roster with non-NHL-affiliated players.  (That one likely had a role in Vegas taking over in Chicago, a move that also made some sense given that they didn’t have a full complement of players to start.)  Vegas bought San Antonio’s franchise which supersedes the agreement they had with St. Louis.

If the Blues want some longer-term security, purchasing a team directly would be the way to go.  If they don’t want to do that, then they run the risk of this happening.  If nothing else, a five-year deal is a decent consolation prize at the very least.  (Unless another NHL team comes in and buys them, of course.)

mydadleftme: Do you think Pastrnak loses his lead in goals?? He’s held on for what seems like the whole season. Also, do you see him keeping this 50 goal a season thing up for a while and maybe touches 60 one season?

It’s going to be a tight race, that’s for sure.  Heading into today’s action, Pastrnak is tied with Alex Ovechkin for the lead with 47 with Auston Matthews just behind at 46.  (Leon Draisaitl is in the mix as well with 43.)  So it’s certainly quite possible (if not likely) he loses the lead at some point.  Having said that, I think he can get the title as long as Boston doesn’t start resting players down the stretch and with the lead they have in the Atlantic Division, that’s certainly a possibility.

While scoring is up a bit compared to a few years ago, it’s extremely tough to do so with any kind of long-term regularity.  Ovechkin, easily the best goal scorer of this generation, has only managed to hit the 50-goal mark in three consecutive seasons before dipping under that mark.  Boston’s top line is dominant, no doubt, so a repeat performance next year is certainly a possibility (assuming he stays healthy and gets there this season, of course).  But no, I’m not going to predict a lengthy run of 50-goal campaigns for him or anyone, really.  We’ve seen one 60-goal guy over the last decade (Steven Stamkos) and even Ovechkin has only gotten there once.  A lot has to break right to get there and I’m not prepared to put Pastrnak at that threshold just yet.

acarneglia: Who do you think Carolina will play in their Stadium Series game next season?

If I was picking the opponent for an outdoor game, I’d focus on the three Rs.

Rivalry: This one would normally come into play but I don’t think it does here as the Hurricanes don’t have any true rivals.  They’re still a relatively young franchise in terms of their time in Carolina and with minimal playoff appearances lately, they haven’t developed many that way either.  This one gets a lower priority than it would for most as a result.

Relevance: There’s a reason you seldom see out of conference matchups in these events.  While outdoor games can be a spectacle in themselves, the league is still going to want this to be a meaningful game.  A random Western opponent doesn’t have the same relevance in terms of the standings as an in-division or in-conference game would.  So I’d lean towards an Eastern opponent.

Ratings: Carolina has certainly been one of the more interesting teams in the league over the last couple of years.  But is that enough for them to be the focal point to draw ratings for this game?  Probably not.  Instead, the rights holder (NBC) will probably want a larger market team to be involved to help up the ratings.  Yes, that means Pittsburgh and Washington jump to the top of the list and perhaps New York (the Rangers, not the Islanders) as well.

If Carolina makes the playoffs this season, it wouldn’t shock me if they wind up getting Washington in the first round.  If that happens, I’d lean towards them getting the nod in a postseason rematch (the rivalry factor).  If not, I’d classify any one of those three Metropolitan teams as early favorites.

goosr: What is the Canadiens’ biggest move in the offseason?

I’ve been flip-flopping on this for a bit now.  With how disappointing a season that Montreal has had, it’s certainly reasonable to think that GM Marc Bergevin would be willing to take a big swing on his roster.  They’re hosting the draft which presents an opportunity to make a splash as well.

And yet, I can just as easily see a scenario where they basically do next to nothing this summer.  They’re expected to sign Alexander Romanov and Bergevin has all but said he’ll be on the NHL roster next season.  They’ll probably sign a new backup goalie.  But based on the confidence that Bergevin seems to have in this roster, he might think that those moves would be enough, coupled with some better luck on the injury front and the continued development of some of their young players.  (Jesperi Kotkaniemi taking a big step would certainly help in this regard.)

While I wouldn’t be shocked if they make a substantial trade, at this point, I think their biggest move this offseason may come from internal extensions.  Jeff Petry, Brendan Gallagher, and Tomas Tatar (even Phillip Danault potentially) are all looking at big contracts and they’re eligible for extensions in July.  Their biggest splash could very well be simply getting one or more of them signed to a big money, long-term extension.

The way that Montreal’s roster is structured, I think they’re a year away from really changing the core.  In the 2021 summer, they have three NHL forwards under contract in Jonathan Drouin, Paul Byron, and Nick Suzuki.  A couple (Kotkaniemi and Artturi Lehkonen) will be restricted free agents.  That number should increase when Max Domi (who would be my darkhorse candidate for a trade given Montreal’s young center depth) re-signs this summer and if some of the UFAs sign early but still, that’s a lot of roster spots up for grabs and they’re not all going to be filled internally.

If the opportunity comes to strike around the draft, maybe they do something of consequence but Bergevin’s faith in their roster and the way their contracts are staggered suggests to me the bigger changes may still be another season away.

ironcity341: If the Sharks would buy out Thornton, would he be eligible for the playoffs if he signed with a new team?

A quick point of clarification to start, buyouts happen in the offseason, not in-season.  The only way a player gets out of his contract once the calendar turns to September is via a contract termination.  Although Thornton conveyed his disappointment about not being dealt to a Stanley Cup contender, that’s not going to happen.

Even if it did, Thornton wouldn’t be eligible to play in the playoffs anyway.  For a player to be postseason eligible, they have to be on the Reserve List for that time when the trade deadline hits.  It’s not like the NBA where players can be bought out after the trade deadline and free agents can be playoff eligible as long as they sign by the end of the regular season (and weren’t waived or bought out after March 1st).  Whatever team they’re on when the clock strikes 2 PM CST on trade deadline is the only one they can play in the playoffs for.  It’s San Jose or bust for Thornton and given that they’re not making the playoffs this season, he’ll have to play for another year to get another crack at the postseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.