Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

The NHL trade deadline has passed and there are only a handful of games left in the regular season. Teams have fine tuned their rosters for a postseason run, or are looking forward to the draft lottery and offseason frenzy. Who are the real contenders for the Stanley Cup? Which deadline rentals will pay off? Who is best positioned to take a big step in their rebuild?

With those questions and many more in mind, it’s time to run our post-deadline mailbag. You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. Make sure to get your questions in early and we’ll try to get through as many of them as possible when the mailbag runs on the weekend.

If you missed our pre-deadline mailbag, it was split into two parts you can read here and here. In the first, Brian tackled questions about the expansion draft, Jesse Puljujarvi’s future and Shea Weber’s health. The second took on the question of chemistry in a locker room, the Rangers’ goaltending situation and potential player holdouts in the future.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the impact of prior chemistry affecting player evaluations, plenty of talk about the Rangers, how the inability to renegotiate contracts could result in more bridge deals down the road, and Detroit’s challenging situation surrounding Andreas Athanasiou.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

sovietcanuckistanian: How much stock do you (or anyone in a front office I guess) put in chemistry amongst players in/at the minors level transitioning to the pros? I ask, because, I watched MacKinnon and Drouin play together in Halifax (QMJHL). The year they won the Memorial Cup, they had Martin Frk on their line (he seems to be doing okay for himself as part of the Kings AHL squad – but languishing a little at sticking with NHL opportunities). Would the Habs or Avs (or any team that has players that have juniors chemistry) target a player like that as an inexpensive deadline pickup? Or am I putting too much stock in such things? – Thanks for your insight.

To use Frk specifically as an example, both Montreal and Colorado have had ample opportunities to pick him up over recent seasons considering the frequency that he has found himself on the waiver wire.  At the very least, those two teams don’t seem to think it’s much of a factor.  Personally, I’m inclined to agree.

While players on the fringes of an NHL spot can sometimes turn around and lock down a full-time role, it’s rarely high in the lineup.  Chances are that the player you’re trying to find that chemistry with is higher in the lineup.  You’d have to be a team that’s well out of contention early on in order to have the willingness to put that fringe player in a key role for an extended period of time to see if the chemistry can be rekindled.  There typically aren’t many teams out of it early enough to do so.

In a lot of instances, a lot of time has elapsed between their junior success and the present day.  Look at Frk – his big year with Nathan MacKinnon and Jonathan Drouin was back in 2012-13, seven seasons ago.  All three players have had a multitude of linemates since then; lots has changed so teams aren’t realistically going to expect them to pick up where they left off after so much time has passed.

This isn’t to say that it’s entirely meaningless.  I think it’s something that could be used on the checklist when evaluating potential additions.  Having the potential – minute as it may be in some circumstances – is something that is a plus.  But in most cases, past chemistry from the junior level with a current player on the team shouldn’t be a significant factor in determining whether or not to bring a particular player onboard.

met man: Are the Ranger Russian goalies exempt from the upcoming expansion draft?  What are the criteria for exposure?

The league has already confirmed that they will use the same rules as they did for the Vegas draft.  That means that players on the first or second year of their entry-level contracts (or have two years or less of NHL experience) will be exempt.  This works out perfectly for the Rangers.

While Igor Shesterkin has plenty of professional experience, the NHL doesn’t view his time in the KHL as professional experience.  He’ll be wrapping up the second and final year of his entry-level deal so he is exempt.  Alexandar Georgiev will be eligible for selection but he’s certain to be the one that’s protected.  Henrik Lundqvist, if not bought out this summer, will be weeks away from unrestricted free agency so he’ll be left unprotected.  At this point, their biggest concern when it comes to the Seattle draft and goaltending will be finding someone to leave unprotected since at least one netminder under contract has to be left exposed.

It’ll be a great summer for veteran AHL  goalies this summer as two-year deals should be handed out to quite a few of them in order to satisfy that particular requirement.  Expect the Rangers to be one of the teams giving out that particular contract to someone.

pitmanrich: Has age finally caught up with Henrik Lundqvist or is it David Quinn/Lindy Ruff’s defensive system which regularly gives up 40+ shots per night to blame for his dramatic decline over last 18 months? Can he rebound and help the Rangers make the playoffs next year or is he a backup goalie nowadays?

I think it’s age more than anything else.  This season notwithstanding, Lundqvist has basically been New York’s undisputed starter for the better part of the last 14 years.  He had a pretty big workload in Sweden before coming to North America too.  He has had a great career but it is clearly soon coming to an end.  I think his days of being a number one, regardless of whose system is in place, are pretty much numbered.

Given how well he has played over his career, I certainly wouldn’t write him off entirely as a factor for next year as a backup goalie…if he’s still around.  With their pending salary cap issues, it’s certainly a possibility that the Rangers decide to buy out the final year of his deal which would save them $3MM on next year’s salary cap.  Considering he’ll likely still be the third-stringer if they hold onto Shesterkin and Georgiev, that may not be the worst idea either even though it would add $1.5MM onto the books for 2021-22.

CoachWall: I have read rumors that the Rangers are listening on Brady Skjei, which makes sense. He is a big ticket item and hasn’t lived up to the hype. What are you hearing?

Knowing the cap crunch that’s coming with Georgiev, Ryan Strome, and Anthony DeAngelo needing new deals (and perhaps fitting in Chris Kreider as well if an extension is worked out), GM Jeff Gorton is certainly going to be exploring all of his cost-cutting options and by default, that’s going to be Skjei.  His name has been in speculation going back to when he signed his six-year, $31.5MM deal but I don’t think there’s a move coming with him.

If they want to free up money, they can attach a draft pick or prospect to try to get out of (or reduce) Marc Staal or Brendan Smith’s contract.  As mentioned earlier, a buyout on Lundqvist gives them some wiggle room.  With due respect to those players, that frees up the money without taking away from the core like a Skjei trade would.

The Rangers don’t really have a replacement that’s ready in their system to take his place either.  While it’s possible (if not probable) that they’d receive a young defender as part of any trade return, they’re making a weak spot even weaker with a Skjei trade.  They’re looking to come out of their rebuild so moving him would set that back a bit.

Having said that, with the trade market favoring the sellers and players with term (Skjei has four years left after this one) drawing a lot of interest, perhaps there’s a deal out there that’s too good to be true for him.  But if they don’t get that, he’s probably not going anywhere.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Do you ever see players in the league eventually following basketball and NFL players in holding out for trades or new contracts if underpaid? Players like MacKinnon and Pastrnak certainly deserve more but seems like hockey players just are content to ride out the bad contract.

They probably aren’t content to ride out their below-market deal but they don’t have a choice.  Unlike the NFL, contract renegotiations aren’t legal in the CBA.  It’s part of the reason that I think we’ll start to see a few more short-term bridge contracts in the years to come.  While some players are okay with the extra security that comes with a long-term deal that sets them up for life, others certainly want to maximize their compensation and wouldn’t want to run the risk of being in a situation like this.

For what it’s worth, contract renegotiations are quite rare in the NBA; the trade requests in that league often pertain to other reasons (lack of playing time, a more desirable market, etc).  Hoops Rumors’ Glossary contains an overview of the very specific criteria required for a renegotiation to occur in the NBA.

tigers22: Red Wings trade AA to St Louis for a 2020 2nd round pick, 2021 1st, and a conditional 2023 2nd (1st rounder if Blues repeat as cup champions. Sound good?

It sounds great for Detroit but the Blues wouldn’t have any interest in that.  For starters, they don’t have the cap space to make a deal work (even with Jay Bouwmeester on LTIR) and considering the disastrous season that Athanasiou is having, that would be a significant overpay.  Last summer when he was coming off his 30-goal season, a first-rounder and another piece would have been about right in terms of trade value.  Now, they might be hard-pressed to get the second-rounder on its own (and St. Louis no longer has their 2020 second-rounder which wasn’t the case when this question was posed).

To say this year has been a disaster for him would be a huge understatement.  He just managed to reach the 10-goal mark this week and while plus/minus isn’t as big of a deal as it once was, being -45 in 46 games is ghastly.  It’s already in the bottom-30 among forwards in NHL history and if he keeps up this particular pace, he’d be within striking distance of the all-time low among NHL forwards (Washington’s Tommy Williams in 1974-75 had a -69 rating).

This presents a bit of a conundrum for GM Steve Yzerman.  Selling low is never ideal but Yzerman will need to decide if he’s part of their long-term core.  If so, then they need to get a long-term deal done this summer.  If not, Athanasiou would be wise to take a one-year pact which would put him within striking distance of UFA eligibility.  That won’t help his value either.  He’s an intriguing change of scenery candidate and, quite frankly, may benefit from it but when is the right time to pull the trigger on a trade?  It certainly isn’t going to be an easy call to make.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include how Shea Weber’s injury will affect Montreal’s deadline plans, where Chris Kreider could wind up, expansion discussion, the chances of RFA winger Jesse Puljujarvi being moved by the deadline, and how active (or inactive) the Flyers may be over the next week.

If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

bigdaddyt: What’s the chances that Weber is done for season/career? And what does Montreal do in response to either?

Since this question was posed, the Canadiens received an update on Weber’s status after he met with the specialist that performed his surgery back in 2018.  The prognosis was largely positive as they announced he’ll miss four-to-six weeks with an ankle sprain.  So it’s certainly not a career-ender which was being floated out there and if Montreal does manage to claw their way back into the playoff hunt, he’ll be back at some point.  (I’m not counting on that happening so I wouldn’t be surprised if they ultimately just shut him down for the season.)

As for what it does for Montreal’s plans, probably not a whole lot.  Jeff Petry’s name is out there but since the Canadiens have no intention of committing to a larger-scale rebuild, they didn’t have a lot of incentive to move him before this happened.  I thought Christian Folin, a right-shot defender, could be moved to a contending team looking for depth but given Montreal’s shallow right-side depth which extends to the minors, that isn’t as much of a guarantee now.  They’re certainly not going to turn around and trade for a right-shot replacement though.  Cale Fleury may get another look at some point as well.

Weber’s injury undoubtedly hurts the Canadiens but in the grand scheme of things, it really shouldn’t affect their plans moving forward on the trade front.

acarneglia: Where does Kreider end up and what do the Rangers get for him? How about Georgiev?

Given their trade history and the fact that the Bruins are known to be quite interested in Kreider, they’re a popular speculative destination for him.  I wouldn’t be shocked if he landed there either.  But I’m going in a different direction here.

The Avalanche have a short window to try to win before players like Cale Makar and Gabriel Landeskog need new, pricier contracts.  (Philipp Grubauer is also up at that time so if they go for a more proven goalie at that time, that’s another big cost on the horizon.)  They’re probably not going to land a legitimate goaltending upgrade so why not improve their strong spot instead?  They were in on Taylor Hall to an extent so they’re not against going for a rental like Kreider is.

New York isn’t necessarily just looking for picks and young prospects.  Given where they are in the rebuild, young NHL-ready players are going to be in the asking price.  Colorado has a couple of those that could move in a deal like this in Tyson Jost and Vladislav Kamenev.  They’re also in a pretty safe spot in the playoffs and have a quality prospect pool so moving their first-rounder shouldn’t be much of a concern.  I’ll toss out two scenarios here – if Jost is involved, it’s him and the first-round pick and that’s plenty.  If Kamenev is the player involved with the first-rounder, then I think there’s a lower pick involved (or comparable prospect).  Something like a 2021 fourth-rounder that upgrades to a third if he re-signs or the Avs reach the Western Conference Final.

As for Alexandar Georgiev, I don’t think he’s going anywhere now that Toronto made their move for Jack Campbell instead.  The market for goalies is typically soft at this time of year and with the Maple Leafs out of the mix, that’s one less potential suitor for his services already.  I don’t think there’s enough demand for New York to land a strong return and there’s no point in taking less than they want to merely get a deal done.  Get to the offseason with the three goalies and then reassess the situation at that time.

M34: With the expansion draft looming, one would have to think that teams need to be mindful of their assets versus their protection rights.

What does a team like Colorado do regarding a contract like Erik Johnson’s? He has a full NMC, but certainly the Avalanche do not want to be forced to use a protection slot on him. Is a buyout a realistic option or do they have to try and convince him to waive the NMC? Of course they would have to take a minimal return, probably retain salary, etc, in a trade scenario.

Also, what other players fall in a similar category?

Considering probably 30% or more of most rosters will change between now and Seattle’s draft in 2021, I’m not sure teams are really worried about that just yet.  Pittsburgh just went and added someone that they’ll need to protect in Jason Zucker but I suspect that didn’t give GM Jim Rutherford any pause before he decided to pull the trigger on the deal.  I expect that it will start to be a bit more of a consideration at June when a good chunk of the summer trading happens but until rosters are set closer to September and the free agents are all gobbled up, it’s not going to necessarily be at the forefront.

With regards to Johnson’s case, I don’t think they need to worry about that situation just yet (there’s a good chance their back end will look a bit different next June than it does now) but let’s dive into it.  They can ask him to waive it to allow him to be left unprotected.  That happened several times with the Vegas draft and that’s how Marc-Andre Fleury got to the Golden Knights even though he had a no-move clause in his deal.  A buyout would also be a possibility and would result in a $2MM cap charge (and payment) for four seasons presuming the move came in 2021.  Is that worth guaranteeing a protection spot for someone else?  Perhaps.  Given who needs new deals that summer to begin with, it’s an option that is going to be considered regardless of expansion and would be weighed against the potential for paying down the contract in a trade.

Other players that could be in that type of situation (bad contract needing protection) include Milan Lucic, Bobby Ryan, Brandon Dubinsky, Brent Seabrook, and Marc Staal.  Those are all among the 60 players with no-move clauses at that time.  But with another summer spending spree on the horizon, that list will undoubtedly grow between now and then.

@SnoopMinnis: Chances Oilers trade Puljujarvi at the deadline? Him and a draft pick for Spencer Knight seems like it makes sense for both teams. Panthers replace Hoffman or Dadonov next year with Jesse, they got BOB for 6yrs more, so Oil get future number 1 SG.

I’d peg the odds of Edmonton trading Puljujarvi as pretty low.  Yes, the restricted free agent is having a nice season in the SM-liiga but I don’t think he has really increased his trade value there.  If what teams were willing to pay for him months ago wasn’t enough then, it probably isn’t enough now unless the deal is of the minor variety.  In terms of standalone value, the best case scenario for Edmonton would be a second-round pick and that typically doesn’t get you more than a rental player on deadline day.  Is that enough to entice Ken Holland to move him?  Probably not.

As for the trade proposal, unless that draft pick is a lottery selection, I don’t think Florida would be interested.  One of the worst kept secrets in hockey last year was their expected pursuit of Sergei Bobrovsky so their selection of Knight was made with that in mind.  The timeline works in terms of a transition.  Knight should spend three years at Boston College, plus a year or two as the starter in the minors to get more reps in.  By the time he gets to the NHL, Bobrovsky will be more of a platoon option by then anyway.  Knight isn’t a luxury in that sense.  He’s the successor for the Panthers’ high-priced netminder and it doesn’t make much sense for them to deal him for a draft pick and a player that has struggled at the NHL level so far.

I also wouldn’t put Puljujarvi as a capable replacement for one of Mike Hoffman or Evgenii Dadonov.  Florida certainly won’t be able to re-sign both of them but there is a substantial drop-off between one of them and Puljujarvi, a player who had a lot of chances in a top-six role with Edmonton and couldn’t produce.  Whoever winds up with Puljujarvi (and at this point, re-signing with the Oilers is probably the best option for him even if he doesn’t want to go back), is going to be looking at him as more of a depth piece with the hopes that he can out-produce those expectations, not a top-six option that’s going to be counted on for 20 goals when he didn’t score that many over parts of three seasons in Edmonton.

mydadleftme: Do you think the Flyers can move anyone, or at least accomplish bad contract swaps. Lots of things suggest Gostisbehere would be traded but I cannot imagine moving that contract would be that easy.

I don’t expect a whole lot from Philadelphia between now and the trade deadline.  They’d like to add but with only a couple million in full-season cap room, that doesn’t allow for much more than a depth acquisition unless the other team is retaining close to the maximum 50%.  Nolan Patrick appears to be getting closer to a return as well so that should be a bit of an upgrade in itself once he’s up to speed.

I don’t think Shayne Gostisbehere gets moved but my reasoning is different than yours.  His knee is still bothering him after surgery and that’s going to give interested teams some pause.  With the potential that a knee injury has to affect his mobility, teams are going to want to see him in action and get some conclusive evidence as to how the surgery affects his game.  They’re not going to get that between now and February 24th.

His contract (which has three years left at $4.5MM after this one) doesn’t seem all that bad to me.  Yes, he’s two years removed from his 65-point season but he doesn’t need to produce at that level to justify that price tag.  A year ago, he had 37 points which is a decent return on that deal.  Looking at it that way, this is his only real down season.  That shouldn’t be enough to scare teams away entirely on its own.  If Gostisbehere can return this year and show that there are no ill effects from the surgery, there’s a move to be made but it will have to wait until the offseason at the earliest.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.