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PHR Panel: Optimal Playoff Format

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We’re now two weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to introduce a new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

Today, we’re tackling the thing most people want to know about–the playoffs.

Q: What is the optimal playoff format for when (if) play resumes?

Brian La Rose:

I know there is some growing optimism to expand the format to as many as 24 teams in an effort to try to artificially improve revenues by getting some larger market teams in. Sure, it’d create some extra short-term interest and create the opportunity for even more upsets than last year. But let’s face it, Chicago and Montreal have no business being in the playoff discussion and there are no guarantees fans will be allowed to attend anyway so the potential revenue boost may not wind up being as high as they’d like.

I’d rather see a 16-team format and an effort made to try to play out the balance of the regular season or as much of it as possible and have the bubble teams battle it out that way. Gary Bettman has talked about the importance of protecting the integrity of the Stanley Cup and the season as part of any discussion about what to do moving forward. That is achieved by doing this over opening the field up to as many as eight more teams and playing best-of-three series. It may not be the most optimal from a salary cap perspective for next year but that number can be negotiated over solely being fixed by HRR anyway.

Now, if they feel the need to change something, they can scrap the divisional format and go back to the older way where the top team played eighth place, second played seventh, and so on.

Holger Stolzenberg:

Generally, I often hear people complaining about the current playoff system as many wish it to return to the 1-16 format. However, I’m a big fan of the current seeding structure and would never want to change it.

However, this is a year in which we might want to make some changes to the playoffs, depending on whether the regular season is canceled or not. Obviously, if the league has time to finish out the regular season, then my vote would be to keep the playoffs the same. If the regular season is canceled, I would like to see the playoffs expanded as a one-time event. With some teams having played more games than other teams, it just doesn’t seem very fair to just take the top 16 (even if they base it on points percentage). A team like Columbus might slip out of the playoffs since they were already at 70 games. While they had won just three of their previous 10, I feel like with Seth Jones likely back on the ice for them the team could surprise someone again in the playoffs.

I would like to see some more teams get in, but the suggested 24-team playoff seems like way too many. In my estimation, 21 teams were close to challenging for a playoff spot (maybe 22 if you want to include Arizona). So, I think whether they are play-in games or something minimal, I would like to see all those teams get a chance to earn their way into the playoffs.

Zach Leach:

One format that could a) stress the importance of regular season success, especially maintaining the league’s emphasis on division battles, b) fairly include an expanded field if the regular season cannot be completed, and c) take place in a more limited amount of time would be to reward the top two teams in each division with first-round byes while implementing shorter series in the first round.

If the playoffs were to start with standings unchanged and seeding was to be based on points percentage, the first round would feature byes for Boston, Tampa Bay, Washington, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Colorado, Vegas and Edmonton. Eight “wild card” teams in each conference would battle in three-game series. In the East, it would be Pittsburgh vs. Montreal, Carolina vs. the New York Rangers, the New York Islanders vs. Florida, and Columbus vs. Toronto. In the West, it would be Dallas vs. Chicago, Nashville vs. Arizona, Vancouver vs. Minnesota, and Calgary vs. Winnipeg.

The winners of each wild card, three-game match-up would be re-seeded for the second round, which would essentially mirror the traditional first round and set up the standard playoff structure. The conference semifinals, finals, and Stanley Cup Final would proceed as they normally do. In total, a field of 24 teams would be able to take part in the postseason with no more than three extra games compared to the usual course and no chance of a top-four team in either conference being knocked off due to time-constrained, shortened series.

Gavin Lee:

Quite frankly, I’m not sure there is an optimal setup at this point. The idea that any more regular season games will actually be played this season seems more and more unlikely each passing day and without those, it is hard to maintain the integrity of the Stanley Cup playoffs, what has become known as one of the longest and most difficult grinds in all of professional sports.

Sure, including teams like Montreal and Chicago would be beneficial to hockey related revenues, but it would taint the whole process in my opinion. How would you draw the line? Do the Sabres and Devils both also make it, given they’re only three points behind Montreal with two games in hand?

If it were possible, I would actually be shrinking the field to try and maintain some integrity, instead of expanding it. Eliminating all four wild card teams and giving byes to each division leader would allow you to keep the tradition of seven-game series and reward the teams that were really the best performers of the first part of the regular season.

Now, of course, the NHL would never do something like that. Having teams sit idle is only letting money fly out the window, and they’ll want as much as possible if they want to keep next year’s projections anywhere near accurate (which they already won’t be). I imagine we’ll see some sort of a play-in tournament, but they won’t risk losing a division leader in a short series against a team that wasn’t even in the wild card spot when the season hit pause.

Stretch Run Storylines: Minnesota Wild

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Central Division with Minnesota.

It has been another disappointing season for the Wild who currently are on the outside looking in at a playoff spot.  New GM Bill Guerin has been aggressive in recent months in terms of shaking things up, moving out Jason Zucker while making a change behind the bench as well.  The effect of that coaching change is among their storylines to watch for down the stretch.

Evason’s Future

The decision to part with Bruce Boudreau last month came as a bit of a surprise even though Minnesota was struggling at the time.  It seemed like the likelier time to make a move would have been the summer but Guerin opted not to wait and installed assistant Dean Evason as the new bench boss on an interim basis for the rest of the season.

The early returns have certainly been promising as the Wild are 8-4-0 since the change and as a result, they’ve crept back into the playoff race and sit only one point outside of the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference.  Despite the strong start under his tenure, Guerin indicated earlier this month that he wasn’t willing to remove the interim tag at this time and will make a decision on Evason’s status at the end of the season.

That makes the stretch run (and possible playoff appearance depending on the format) extremely important for the first time NHL head coach.  A good showing would certainly bolster his chances of getting the full-time gig but if they falter, Guerin could go elsewhere.  There’s a lot riding on their final few games (assuming they actually occur).

Dubnyk’s Struggles

While Devan Dubnyk’s save percentage dipped a bit in 2018-19 while his goals against average went up a couple of points, he still seemed like a safe bet to be at least an average starter this season.  That hasn’t exactly happened.

The 33-year-old has posted a save percentage of just .890 this season.  That’s his lowest one since his rookie year and the last time he had one around that territory (2013-14 at .891), three different organizations were paying him to be a platoon goalie for Montreal’s AHL affiliate.  His goals against average of 3.35 is his worst since that 2013-14 campaign.  Those are not starting-caliber numbers; those aren’t even backup level.

That’s why Alex Stalock was given a chance to run as the starter and to his credit, he made the most of it in the weeks leading up to the break in the schedule.  But he has been a backup (or third-stringer) for his entire career so asking him to keep up his level of play isn’t realistic.

Eventually, they will need Dubnyk to get back to his form from a year ago.  This is where the break should do him some good as some time away certainly can’t hurt.  If you look back at how he bounced back from his ugly 2013-14 season, he quickly rediscovered his form with Arizona which helped land him in Minnesota where he had fared well until now.  They’ll certainly be counting on a similar bounce back down the stretch.

Galchenyuk’s Future

When the Canadiens signed Alex Galchenyuk to a three-year deal three offseasons ago, it set him up to potentially be one of the most sought after forwards in unrestricted free agency.  Here was a top-three pick only a year removed from a 30-goal campaign and he’d be hitting the open market at 26 in the prime of his career.

Things haven’t gone quite as planned, however.  Galchenyuk was eventually moved to Arizona where his numbers declined.  He started this season in Pittsburgh and didn’t do much there and saw his value plummet to the point where he was effectively a salary matching throw-in as part of the Zucker trade.

Prior to the pause, Galchenyuk was actually showing some signs of improvement.  He had seven points in 14 games, a pace that was comparable to his output from a year before despite averaging a little less than 15 minutes a night.  If he is able to return and sustain that pace, he’ll at least position himself to have interest from a few teams on the open market, including potentially Minnesota.  But if he struggles down the stretch (or even if play doesn’t resume), he could go from possibly being one of the more intriguing free agents to one that will have to wait a while in the offseason to find his next team.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Originals: 3/16/20 – 3/22/20

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Here’s a rundown of the original content at PHR over the past seven days.

Our tour around the Central Division’s storylines to watch for continued with a look at four more teams:

Colorado: The Avalanche will be welcoming back several key players which is a huge boost for them as they try to catch St. Louis for the top spot in the Western Conference.  However, their most interesting storyline may be their goaltending situation.  I looked at the numbers for the now-healthy Philipp Grubauer and backup Pavel Francouz and there isn’t really a true contender for the job.  Teams rarely platoon in the playoffs but this is a team where that could change.

Dallas: The Stars have basically been at the top end of the playoff bubble teams for most of the season.  I broke down just how bad their offense has been but on the optimistic side, a return to form for their top veteran forwards could really give them a boost.  The future of Rick Bowness behind the bench will likely be dependent on how they fare down the stretch and in the postseason so there’s a lot riding on whatever may be left of 2019-20.

Nashville: It has been a bumpy season for the Predators who have been one of the bigger underachievers relative to early expectations.  As Holger noted, their top scorers haven’t got the job done while they also have had to deal with inconsistent goaltending from Juuse Saros and Pekka Rinne.  Will the break rejuvenate Rinne to help take some of the pressure off of Saros and resolidify that position?  That could very well make or break their postseason hopes.

Winnipeg: Their situation largely breaks down to inside their blue line.  I assessed the composition of their defense corps which is certainly a weak link relative to their competitors for a playoff spot.  Connor Hellebuyck has also been relied on a lot this year and with the possibility of a lot of back-to-backs if the NHL tries to make it through the regular season, he’s going to be heavily tested down the stretch.

Flipping the script, if the season doesn’t resume, the NHL awards will become more of a talking point.  One of the more intriguing battles would be for the Calder Trophy with Colorado’s Cale Makar and Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes being the presumptive top two contenders.  Who would win if the vote was today?  Make your choice here.

Even if the NHL does resume, it’s likely that games will be played in empty arenas for a while.  As the NHL is a gate-driven league, that will wreak some havoc on their revenues for the season which could result in a lower salary cap.  That will put many teams in even more cap trouble than they were this year.  Zach proposed a potential solution to that issue or at least something to help by suggesting the league bring back a compliance buyout.  These were sometimes referred to as amnesty buyouts in the past as teams were allowed to buy someone out without any salary cap ramifications.  With a probable drop in revenues, it’s something that the NHL and the NHLPA should be giving serious consideration to between now and the offseason.

Stretch Run Storylines: Nashville Predators

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Central Division with Nashville.

It’s been an inconsistent season for the Nashville Predators, who many felt could challenge for the Central Division title this season. Instead, the team struggled out of the gate, which included a six-game losing streak in November and by early January, general manager David Poile made a decision to let go of long-time coach Peter Laviolette and associate coach Kevin McCarthy after the team had a 19-15-7 record. The team replaced him with recently fired coach John Hynes, who took over and saw the team fight its way back into the final wild card spot, but with continued inconsistent play and several teams breathing down their necks, the team will have to fight to remain in the playoffs.

Questionable Offense

When looking at the team’s top four point producers so far this year, the Nashville Predators have two defenseman in their top four, including defenseman Roman Josi, who leads the team in scoring by far with 65 points this season. That is fine when the team runs its offense through its defense. However, the team’s first line players, however, aren’t having great seasons, which has only made things more challenging.

While there is still plenty of time left, assuming the regular season resumes, Filip Forsberg looks to be heading for a career-low in goals. After never posting lower than 26 goals in his tenure with Nashville, the 25-year-old has just 21 goals and 48 points and still hasn’t been able to take his impressive game to that next level and develop into the star that many people had envisioned.

To make matters worse, Poile went out of his way to upgrade his defense by trading away P.K. Subban in the offseason and using that new-found money to sign center Matt Duchene to give the team a second dominant center. Duchene was expected to play the role of a major point producer after posting a 31-goal, 70-point season last year between Ottawa and Columbus. However, that hasn’t translated in his first year in Nashville as he has just 13 goals and 42 points through 66 games.

If Nashville wants to ensure a trip to the playoffs and maybe even surviving a round or two, the Predators must get more consistent play from their forwards. Even Viktor Arvidsson, who has averaged 30 goals for the three previous years has just 15 goals this season.

Goaltending Issues

A year ago, there were plenty of people that would have referred to the Predators’ goaltending tandem of Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros as one of the best in the league. However, that hasn’t been the case so far this year.

The 36-year-old Rinne started a new two-year, $10MM deal this season, but few expected a major drop-off after he posted a 2.42 GAA and a .918 save percentage in 56 appearances last year. Unfortunately for the Predators, those numbers took a nosedive. In 36 games this season, Rinne has a 3.17 GAA and a .895 save percentage, which has allowed Saros to take an even bigger role, while also leaving questions on how wise it was to give Rinne two more years.

After a slow start, Saros has been much more successful and has taken on the starting role, having appeared in 16 games since February.  The 27-year-old netminder has a pedestrian 2.70 GAA in 40 appearances (a career high), but also has a .914 save percentage, winning 10 of those appearances.

The team needs Saros to continue his conversion into the team’s everyday starter, but also needs to hope that the break rejuvenates Rinne, who the team needs to bounce back and take some of the responsibility off Saros.

Coaching Transition

Often when teams fire their coaches at midseason, like the Predators did with Laviolette in January, the team hopes the change will inspire the team to take their game up a notch and show they are as talented as management had assumed at the start of the season. So far Hynes has the team at 16-11-1, only a slight improvement, yet while the team has been inconsistent since Hynes has taken over, Nashville has three three-game and three two-game winning streaks this year.

One would have to imagine that the layoff could benefit Hynes more than anything as he has more time to study tape and adjust his coaching techniques and lines to improve the team when they get back on the ice.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stretch Run Storylines: Winnipeg Jets

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Central Division with Winnipeg.

It has been a tough year for the Jets.  They lost several key members of their back end over the summer and have been hit hard by the injury bug throughout the season.  Despite that, a hot stretch of games just before the suspension of play got them back into the playoff picture.  Will their back end be able to hold up the rest of the way?  That’s one of Winnipeg’s key storylines down the stretch.

Defensive Questions

Losing Jacob Trouba to trade, Tyler Myers and Ben Chiarot as free agents, and Dustin Byfuglien from the calamitous mess that is his situation is tough for anyone.  There’s no improving your back end when you lose that many key players at once, even with landing Neal Pionk in the Trouba trade.

Pionk and Josh Morrissey lead Winnipeg’s defense corps that could best be described as patchwork.  Of the ten rearguards on their roster before the roster freeze kicked in, two are waiver claims and another was a non-tendered RFA last summer.  Two others are just beginning their NHL careers and another was a waiver claim in another organization last year and is best served as a seventh or eighth defender.  Dylan DeMelo was a shrewd addition by GM Kevin Cheveldayoff a little before the trade deadline but in a perfect world, he’s on the third pairing, not averaging over 21 minutes a night.

Is it a terrible group?  No.  But when compared to the other teams that they’re battling with for a playoff spot, it’s a definite downgrade.  This patchwork back end has held up quite well given the circumstances.  But as the pressure mounts, can they hold up or will the cracks start to become more evident?

And if we’re throwing out questions, how about some with Byfuglien.  While he was ruled out for the season before the trade deadline, could he be medically cleared to return if the break is long enough?  Would he even want to return to Winnipeg?  It’s a longshot but he’d certainly give them a boost if he came back.

Hellebuyck Holding Up

Quick trivia question – who leads the league in shots faced this season?  The answer is Connor Hellebuyck who also is tied for the NHL lead in games played with Montreal’s Carey Price.  A year ago, Laurent Brossoit was one of the top backups in the league and was pushing for more playoff time.  This season, he has been well below average, even for second stringers.  As a result, Hellebuyck has had to carry a huge workload.

This is where the shutdown could help the Jets.  With the extended break, he should be fresh for the stretch run.  However, it’s also quite possible (if not probable) that there will be a lot of back-to-backs if the regular season resumes to get as many games in as they can before the playoffs.  They may need Hellebuyck to play both ends of those given Brossoit’s struggles this season as with being a bubble team, they can’t afford to risk it.

So far this season, Hellebuyck has only played both ends of a back-to-back just once and only made one start in that situation in 2018-19 (and didn’t make it through the game).  Suffice it to say, he’s going to be in some uncharted waters if the regular season resumes.

Scoring Race

There will likely be a new scoring champion in Winnipeg after Blake Wheeler had led the Jets in each of the past two seasons.  But who that will be is something to watch for.

Winger Kyle Connor has already established new career highs in goals (38), assists (35), and points (73), eclipsing the point per game mark for the first time in his young career.  Meanwhile, center Mark Scheifele was on pace for new career bests in assists and points before the shutdown and he’s also at 73.  (Wheeler is still technically in the mix at 65 but would need quite the productive stretch run to contend for his third straight scoring title.)

Connor’s surge makes Winnipeg’s decision to sign him to a seven-year, $50MM contract partway through training camp look a lot better.  With only two full seasons under his belt before this one, that type of commitment certainly carried some risk.  Meanwhile, Scheifele continues to be one of the top value deals in the league with a $6.125MM AAV through the 2023-24 campaign.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Could Coronavirus Lead To The Return Of Compliance Buyouts?

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Just two weeks after the NHL announced a projected 2020-21 salary cap range that would have represented a major boost in teams’ spending power, things could not have gone in a worse direction in terms of meeting that estimation. The Coronavirus outbreak has shut the league down and there is no way to know when or if games will return this season. The league hopes to resume play and even maintains that they would like to avoid missing any games, but with each passing day that reality grows less and less likely. COVID-19 fears seem almost certain to cost games if not the entirety of the remaining regular season schedule and, in the worst-case scenario, possibly the playoffs as well. Missed games are missed revenue opportunities and the board of governors would be highly unlikely to approve a cap increase, especially of the magnitude initially projected, if they continue to suffer losses.

The last time that the NHL was forced to cancel games was in the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season. As the league and players’ association battled over collective bargaining terms, the NHL missed the first half of their season. A 48-game schedule began on January 19th, which for all involved was better than nothing but was certainly a hit to owners’ bottom lines. The 2012-13 campaign was expected to carry a $70.2MM cap hit, but that instead was a pro-rated number that in reality was just $60MM. The following season, given the lost revenue, the cap only meagerly returned to just $64.3MM, the same upper limit as in 2011-12.

Due to the unexpected stagnation of the salary cap for those two years, many teams were left under immense pressure to fit their rosters under the ceiling. In response, the NHL offered a solution: the “compliance buyout”. The compliance buyout follows the same rules as a standard buyout, allowing teams to cut ties with a player at the cost of two-thirds of the remaining value of their contract (one-third if under 26) over the course of double the length of the remaining term on the contract. The one defining difference is that compliance buyouts do not count against the salary cap. The NHL made this option available in the 2013 and 2014 off-seasons, with a limit of two per team over the two summers, and 18 teams took advantage. In fact, a number of teams are still paying off those buyouts – with a ways to go – with standouts including Christian Ehrhoff, Brad Richards, Ilya Bryzgalov, Vincent Lecavalier, and of course Rick DiPietro.

Could the compliance buyout make a return appearance should the Coronavirus outbreak continue to prevent NHL action from returning? If NHL teams end up losing revenue due to missed games, the 2020-21 salary cap limit will at best be the low end of the league’s projection, which is $84MM. And that would still be a $2.5MM increase. More likely in the case of canceled games would be the salary cap remaining at $81.5MM or only increasing marginally. Such a shift in the expected course of action would leave many teams in trouble. A report earlier today named the Chicago Blackhawks as one team that would have to make difficult roster decisions in the event of a stagnant cap, but they are far from alone. 13 teams already have $70MM+ in salary committed to 2020-21, while many of the 12 more  teams in the $60-70MM range either have key free agents to re-sign or are working with a small number of signed players. The Arizona Coyotes, who lead the pack with $79.99MM committed to just 18 players, were already hard-pressed to deal with an $84MM salary cap, nevertheless a continuation of the current $81.5MM. They would be left in a nearly impossible situation, unless offered a way out.

As such, it seems like a strong possibility that the compliance buyout could make its triumphant return. While the league does not want to address the “what if” of missed games at this point in time, should it reach the point where that result is inevitable, compliance buyouts will certainly become a hot topic. Whether the league would go about the process in a similar manner as they did last time around remains to be seen. They might instead offer a one-time shot this summer in light of NHL Expansion in 2021 that should get the salary cap back on track. It’s too early to tell, but as we all wait out the Coronavirus, it’s worth wondering whether the league could bring back an old device to mitigate the lasting effect of the pandemic.

Stretch Run Storylines: Dallas Stars

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Central Division with Dallas.

The Stars have had a bit of a tumultuous season but nevertheless find themselves in a top-three seed in the Central Division.  An early season coaching change shocked many while a lack of production from their top players has been more than a little perplexing.  Those themes have been prevalent throughout the season and will continue to be key storylines down the stretch and into the postseason.

Offensive Struggles

On paper, a core of Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Joe Pavelski, and Alexander Radulov looks pretty strong.  Seguin had six straight seasons of at least 72 points under his belt, Benn had reached 69 or more in five of the last six years, Radulov had two straight seasons of 72 in first two years with the team, and Pavelski came into the year with six straight campaigns of 64 points or more.  Yes, it’s an aging group so a slight decline would have been understandable.  But this hasn’t been a slight decline.

As things stand, none of them have reached the 20-goal mark.  Only Seguin has reached the 40-point mark, checking at 50.  Benn and Radulov have a shot at 40 points if the remaining scheduled games are played out while Pavelski getting there would be a longshot.

Not surprisingly, the Stars check in at 29th overall in goals scored.  They are the only team outside of the top-20 in that department to be holding down a playoff spot.  They can’t afford to rely on Denis Gurianov to continue to lead the team in goals if they want to be a postseason contender.  For context, he’s their only 20-goal player (20 on the dot) and spent a bit of time in October in the minors after seeing minimal ice time early on.

Some teams need an uptick in scoring from their primary players.  Some need a secondary scoring boost.  Dallas needs all of that and then some.  If Seguin, Benn, Radulov, and Pavelski can get back to the level they were at even a year ago (and this break could certainly help with that), it would go a long way towards fixing their scoring woes and making them a much bigger playoff threat in the process.

Interim Or Permanent?

It was a big surprise when Rick Bowness was asked to take over for Jim Montgomery behind the bench after the latter was dismissed for cause back in December.  At the time of the move, it was expected that the interim tag would be in place for the rest of the regular season and they would re-assess at that time.

So how has he fared?  Clearly, the offense is sputtering but at the same time, they have been the top defensive team in the Western Conference in terms of goals allowed which has allowed them to stay in a playoff spot for most of the year.  Basically, not a whole lot has changed from the transition from Montgomery to Bowness as the veterans were scuffling offensively at the start of the year while Ben Bishop and Anton Khudobin have provided strong goaltending.

Is basically keeping the team afloat enough to justify the permanent job?  Considering the odd circumstances in which he took over, accomplishing that is notable.  However, it certainly feels like how they fare down the stretch and postseason (if those games get played) will ultimately determine whether or not GM Jim Nill sticks with him or goes after another bench boss in the offseason.

Early Extension For Heiskanen?

Last year was a good one for defenseman Miro Heiskanen who finished just shy of being a Calder Trophy finalist.  After putting up 33 points, he seemed like a prime candidate for a big jump in production which would have him in line for a big raise when he became eligible for an early extension in July.  Of course, the big jump in production hasn’t happened (putting him in line with just about everyone else on the team) although he has collected 35 points which is good enough to put him third on the team in scoring.

Even so, the small uptick offensively will call into question whether or not an extension is the right way to go as it’s possible that Heiskanen could be leaving money on the table without a 40-point season under his belt.  If regular season games resume and he picks up some points or is productive in the playoffs, he might be able to boost his value enough to make an early extension justifiable.  If not, waiting may be the better option so whether or not the NHL returns may be particularly important for him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stretch Run Storylines: Colorado Avalanche

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Central Division with Colorado.

After making somewhat of a surprise appearance in the second round last season, the Avalanche have built off of that and have become one of the top threats in the Western Conference.  They’ve managed to do so despite a litany of injuries to key players.  That shouldn’t be an issue when play resumes, making it a top storyline for not only them but the rest of the West as well.

Return To Health

Just before the suspension of play, Colorado had just found out that Nathan MacKinnon was going to miss a couple of weeks while Cale Makar had just returned from an upper-body injury issue.  Having them at full strength is nice…and that’s only the tip of the iceberg.

Philipp Grubauer will return from his lower-body issue which will bolster their goaltending tandem.  Mikko Rantanen will be ready to go from his upper-body ailment; both players have been out for roughly a month.  Nazem Kadri plays more than any forward not on their top line and will be back from his lower-body injury.  And while we’re at it, Matt Calvert and Andre Burakovsky will also be ready to go from their lower-body issues.

If you’re keeping track, that’s two top line forwards, a second line center, two middle six wingers, and a starting goalie that will all be back.  Calling that a huge upgrade to their roster would be an understatement and positions the Avs quite nicely for a stretch run or quick start to the postseason.

Goaltending Decision

Let’s go back to Grubauer.  Prior to his injury, he had become more of the clear cut starter.  But when he went down, Pavel Francouz ran off a 2.40 GAA with a .918 SV% in 13 appearances (one being in relief of Grubauer when he was hurt).  He more than capably held down the fort and earned himself a two-year contract extension in the process.  At the same time, his play also suggested that he is worthy of more playing time.

All of a sudden, there isn’t a guaranteed number one option anymore.  When it comes to the regular season, there’s nothing wrong with that and platoon situations can be quite useful during that time.  More teams have gone with that approach and the results have been largely positive.  So for however many regular season games are played (if any), they’re in good shape.

But who’s going to lead them in the postseason?  Teams typically pick one and stick with that goalie throughout though Grubauer himself was one of the exceptions a couple of years ago in Washington.  Six weeks ago, it looked like Grubauer was the favorite to start.  But Francouz’s performance in his absence suggests he may be worthy of the number one job now.  A return to regular season games could help solve this but if the NHL jumps right into the playoffs, Jared Bednar has quite a decision to make.

Quest For 100

Two years ago, MacKinnon came up just shy of the 100-point mark as he had 97 in 74 games.  Last season, he got even closer; while his point per game average went down, he played in all 82 contests and got to 99 points.  This season, he was well on his way to getting there and likely would have hit that mark even though he’d have missed this week due to injury.  He currently sits at 93 points in 69 games with his 1.35 point per game average being the best of his career.

If regular season play resumes, it’s quite possible MacKinnon will get to 100 even if the schedule winds up being truncated by a few games.  If not, he’ll take aim at that plateau next season and will instead have to settle for leading the team in scoring by a country mile.  (He currently sits 43 points ahead of Makar who is second in points with 50.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Originals: 3/9/20 – 3/15/20

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Here is a rundown of the original content at PHR over the past week.

Group VI free agency doesn’t typically get much attention but one of the things to watch for down the stretch each season is which players can still avoid it and whether or not those teams bring those players up to retain their rights.  I took a look at the four players that could still avoid hitting the open market although those situations could change depending on what happens with the schedule in the weeks to come.

Gavin held his weekly Thursday chat in the immediate aftermath of the suspension of the schedule.  Topics included the annual awards, college free agency, minor league postponements, and more.

Our Stretch Run Storylines series kicked off as we look at the Central Division.  I examined what to watch for in St. Louis where the defending Stanley Cup champions could be a team to watch for if play resumes.  Vladimir Tarasenko’s return should bolster an already strong and deep attack while they possess arguably the top pending unrestricted free agent in Alex Pietrangelo as well who could be too expensive for them to keep.

The NCAA announced this past week that they would extend eligibility for those playing spring sports and added that they would discuss the issue for those (including hockey players) that weren’t able to complete their conference and NCAA championships.  Zach broke down how that could potentially be accomplished as well as forecasting what the field for the NCAA tournament could have looked like.

Every year, there are trades that contain conditional elements for a draft pick to be transferred over.  These can often pertain to games played although there has also been the odd one also is based on the production of a player with his new team.  Some of those are still in flux; Gavin assessed those and how the potential return of regular season contests could make or break those conditions.

Part two of our mailbag is now available.  Topics I tackled in this one included Henrik Lundqvist’s future with the Rangers now that he’s the clear-cut third option, Kyle Dubas’ tenure as the GM with Toronto, a projection for Philadelphia in the playoffs, and more.

Stretch Run Storylines: St. Louis Blues

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  First up is a look at the Central Division, beginning with St. Louis.

The Blues had a bit of a sluggish start to their season with just three wins in their first eight games but since then, they have been the top team in the Western Conference and as a result, they sit atop the division as well as the Western Conference.  That has the defending Stanley Cup Champions sitting in good shape whenever play resumes, even more so considering one of their top players will return which highlights their top storylines to watch for.

Tarasenko’s Return

Shoulder injuries have plagued winger Vladimir Tarasenko for a while now and another one suffered in his tenth game of the season has caused him to miss most of the year.  However, at the time he underwent surgery, the projected timeline for his return was late March or early April which made GM Doug Armstrong decide not to use LTIR relief to acquire a replacement, a move that seems particularly prescient now.  If they had acquired someone using LTIR, they wouldn’t be able to activate Tarasenko until they found a way to get in cap compliance and with the trade deadline now long passed, that would be next to impossible.

Barring any unexpected setbacks, Tarasenko should be able to return to the lineup whenever play resumes which will give a team that already has hovered around the top-ten in scoring this season its top scoring threat back.  There is bound to be some rust although some of that will be offset by this extended layoff for everyone.  Getting his timing back before the postseason gets underway would be a big boost to a team that’s certainly going to be capable for another long playoff run.

Pietrangelo’s Increasing Value

The contracts given to Erik Karlsson ($11.5MM) and Drew Doughty ($11MM) have helped place the spotlight on defenseman Alex Pietrangelo who is now pegged to get a significant raise on his current $6.5MM AAV.  Heading into the year, some had suggested a deal in the $9MM range could be his target but that may very well be on the low side.

Very quietly, the captain has put up a career year offensively.  He already has a new top mark in goals (16) while his assists per game and points per game marks are also the best of his career.  If the NHL resumes with some regular season action, he will almost certainly set new highs in those categories as well.  After having a bit of a quieter year offensively in 2018-19, he has rebounded quite nicely and that’s only going to help his value.

As things stand, the Blues can’t afford to re-sign him and fill out the rest of their roster even if the Upper Limit of the salary cap goes up slightly.  (And with everything that’s happening, that’s not as likely as it was just a few weeks ago.)  As a result, it is a distinct possibility that Pietrangelo is playing out his final days in St. Louis.

Scoring Race

The battle for the top spot in the division should be tightly contested as Colorado is only two spots behind them and this layoff gives them a chance to get some of their players healthy as well.  But there is another race that is certainly intriguing, the battle to lead the team in points.

While St. Louis doesn’t have anyone near the point per game mark, they have four players within four points of each other for the team lead in Ryan O’Reilly (61), David Perron (60), Brayden Schenn (58), and Jaden Schwartz (57).  Four points isn’t a big gap so it’s quite possible that this particular race could go down to the wire.

O’Reilly and Perron are signed for two more years after this one while Schenn signed an eight-year extension back in October that kicks in for 2020-21.  But Schwartz will be entering the final season of his deal this summer which makes him eligible for a contract extension.  A strong finish to his campaign will certainly bolster his bargaining power.  If he can get that team lead, it’ll be even stronger.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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