The offseason is in full flight with only two teams still standing. We continue our series which examines what those eliminated teams need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Toronto.
Things didn’t quite go according to plan for the Maple Leafs this season. Yes, they won the North Division as expected but it didn’t result in much playoff success. Instead, they were ousted in the opening round once again, this time by Montreal. GM Kyle Dubas indicated after the season that he doesn’t intend to move any of his four highly-paid forwards so they will be looking to make smaller moves to try to upgrade this summer. Here is what they should be working on this offseason.
Add A New Assistant Coach
Seattle’s decision to hire Dave Hakstol as their first head coach caught many by surprise but it also created a vacancy on Toronto’s bench that will need to be filled. With head coach Sheldon Keefe still relatively inexperienced at the NHL level and Manny Malhotra not having any head coaching experience, bringing in a replacement who has been an NHL head coach would be a nice addition to the bench although Paul MacLean is also on the staff and could be elevated to a larger role. Bruce Boudreau was speculated as a possible addition last offseason and could make sense this summer as well.
Re-Sign Or Replace Hyman
Zach Hyman has worked his way up Toronto’s depth chart from a depth piece at the start to a key member of their top six and had a strong season offensively with 15 goals and 18 assists in 43 games. Of course, offense is only a piece of what he brings to the table as he’s an effective checker and a strong complementary piece on the top line. This has him well-positioned to land a significant contract in free agency later this month, even with a flat salary cap in a free agent environment that wasn’t kind to most wingers back in the fall.
But is that a contract they will be able to afford? They have over $70MM in commitments for next season already to 16 players and another high-priced deal would force them into even more low-cost depth pickups to stay cap compliant while filling out the roster. On the other hand, can they afford to lose him? Yes, he’s a complementary player on their number one line but he has logged more than 19 minutes a game the last two years while leading the way in penalty kill ice time among forwards as well. If he goes elsewhere, it’d be a big loss.
But if he winds up outpricing himself from what Toronto can realistically afford, Hyman’s departure would allow them to shop in the free agent market for a replacement. They’ve been linked to Nashville’s Mikael Granlund before and someone in his projected price range is what the Maple Leafs can more realistically afford while filling out the rest of their roster. Their preference would undoubtedly be to keep Hyman but if that doesn’t happen (and at this point, it sure sounds like the asking price is too high for their liking), the ability to dangle a spot alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner could make them a team to watch for in free agency.
Rielly Extension Talks
Morgan Rielly has been a fixture on Toronto’s back end for the last eight years, often being their number one option over the last several seasons. His current contract – one that carries an AAV of $5MM – has turned into quite a bargain along the way. However, that deal is up a year from now which means that the 27-year-old is eligible to sign a contract extension as soon as the calendar flips to the 2021-22 league year on July 28th.
It’s safe to say that he will be landing a sizable raise and could push past the $7MM mark as long as he has a strong final year on his contract. If he gets to the open market, he’ll be one of the more sought-after players in the 2022 free agent class. And with over $57MM in commitments to just nine players for 2022-23 (which doesn’t factor in a new deal for Hyman or a replacement), there will come a time where they won’t be able to keep all of their core players.
But James Mirtle of The Athletic recently reported (subscription link) that Rielly is willing to take a discount to remain with the Maple Leafs. If that’s the case, Dubas would be wise to try to get a new deal for Rielly done this summer, giving them some extra certainty in terms of what their cap picture looks like for 2022 and beyond. If the framework of an extension was in place before free agency started, it’d give them some better clarity on what they can afford long-term on a Hyman re-signing or replacement as well as one other need that will have to be filled.
Platoon Partner For Campbell
That need is finding a second goaltender to team up with Jack Campbell next season. Frederik Andersen is set to become an unrestricted free agent and while he has expressed an interest in returning, he’d also like to have chance at being a starter again. That probably won’t come with Toronto with the way that Campbell played down the stretch and in the playoffs.
Campbell may not be the undisputed starter but he could very well be on the stronger side of the platoon which would be a good situation for him as he heads into the final year of his contract before being eligible for unrestricted free agency for the first time.
The good news for the Maple Leafs is that there are several goalies who fit as possible platoon partners. The bad news is that those netminders still carry a notable price tag with deals for them in recent years hovering in the $3MM range. They have the room to afford that for next season but it will undoubtedly cut into what they can afford in Hyman’s slot.
If there’s an opportunity to do what they did when they acquired Campbell and bring in a lower-cost netminder with team control beyond next season, that may very well be the more desirable route even though it would cost them an asset or two versus free agency where it’s just money. That would give them more flexibility on the cap and some certainty with Campbell’s deal being up next summer barring an extension over the summer.
Either way, through trade or a free agent signing, Toronto will need to add another goaltender over the next few weeks.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
If Rielly will take a hometown discount that is music to my ears.
On SDP they were saying how Sandin and Muzzin showing they can play the power play QB really help the leafs move on from him. I see this team trying to get better defensively and in doing so jettising
Reilly as he doesn’t play very well in his own zone. Save on cap and give Lilly his shot already
Hard to choke in the off-season. Or is it
Not really a matter of choking. The Leafs are up against cap hell, and you can’t really even say that they’ve handed out horrible contracts: none of their high-priced players would make much (or any) less on the open market right now if they were UFAs.
Marner isn’t the best of contracts but never said they handed out bad contracts
John Tavares, Mitch Marner those are overpays.
And to think all along both guys said their choice was supposedly to sign in Toronto, and they overpayed on both contracts
All 4 of their big 4 would make close to 1M less on the open market, and fact is, only 1 of them was on the open market when signed, the others were RFA’s.
I’ll give you Marner and Taveras. Willie is likely close but Matthews certainly is in the right range. I mean you are talking about a perennial Rocket Richard contender. Those don’t grow on trees.
There are a bunch of guys with resumes worse than Zach Hyman with contracts north of $4 million a year. No kidding they can’t afford him, unless every other single slot is filled with guys making league minimum OR they get rid of a contract. And while Nylander (say) is an overpay, it’s not as if the guy isn’t a good player, a key component, and the sort of player you don’t want to give up just to sign Hyman. But this is what you get when you hand $55 million to just seven guys, however good those guys are.
Are they good though? 5 years of getting bounced in the first round of the real season doesn’t say a lot! They say don’t change what’s not broken………well something is definitely broken who wants to pay 11 million for a guy that doesn’t show up in the playoffs?
And Hyman will be getting more than 4M probably more than 5M on his new contract. He isn’t a problem for them. It’s the other big contracts pricing him out of their market.
Then, just out of curiosity, what do you change? Tavares and the whole defense corps are on NMC/NTCs. They can’t afford free agents worth signing. Nylander and Kerfoot are the easiest to move, but they were the guys who produced in the playoffs. Matthews is a legit superstar and the core of the team.
But let’s say that you do want to blow the team up and move Matthews and/or Marner — because in order to have any freedom of financial maneuver, those are the names you have to move. Who in the hell is going to take on $11 million-plus contracts? Who in the hell is going to give Toronto what they’re worth? (Because if Buffalo really thinks they can get four first-round equivalents for Eichel — riiiiight — what’s the take for a preeminent star like Matthews?)
And since what Toronto would be getting in return at best is a lot of picks, how will the Toronto GM survive the howling mob at the implication that an ostensible Cup-contender’s tearing it all down to build for the future?
Trang, it’s obvious you are a Leafs fan so any suggestions are going to be abrasive and you’ll just think anything said is “hate”.
If you want to discuss honest options to make the team more complete… one of the big 4 (3 really IMO) have to go to complete the roster. Reilly is not an elite top dman. One of the top 4 have to go with him to create the space. Get a more complete top pair dman and a real g. Then Toronto may be a top competitor.
They are not with Campbell and Reilly as the top of their back end.
I’ll give you Rielly, but NYI were a game away from the cup final without a top-level goalie. Campbell wasn’t the problem. did he let in the odd cheap goal? sure many goalies do but he also was the reason they won games.
I agree some sort of shakeup needs to happen. Rielly I have been saying for years needs to move. He simply put is a forward playing defense. doesn’t hit, is out of place often.
That’s pretty funny. I’m a Bostonian. So far from being a Leafs’ fan …
Anyway, it’s not a matter of thinking anything said is “hate.” It’s that people aren’t being realistic. A couple of your defensemen have to go? Spiffy. Who wants them, who’ll pay what return for them, how do you get the guys to waive their no-trade/no-movement clauses to do that, how do you avoid Toronto being forced to retain salary, and how do you fit whomever you get in Toronto’s cap hell?
There. Fit that into your “honest options.”
as for forward would rather have Hyman at any price than a few of the others making much more and can’t play defense , or produce points in playoffs no names mentioned
There would need to be other pieces, but what about something around marner + nylander for eichel + 1st OV (power?)? I figure you can’t move AM34 or Tavares, you get a legit star (if healthy) in eichel, can keep Hyman, rebuild the D with power. Then you could sign a guy like granlund maybe for 3M. That essentially becomes: marner, nylander, filler, filler for eichel, Hyman, granlund, power which I think could end up being the better value IRL. Also buffalo needs to do something with eichel and they could make a real actual splash now by getting marner and a very good player in nylander.
Marner + Nylander make numbers work. But not value for majority of hockey fans. Most know Marner was over paid on his contract and TO is gonna lose any trade attempt. And Nylander is close to fair value. Those 2 for Eichel may be close considering contracts and overpays, but not in the flat cap and Buffalo overvalued eichel.
I think the bigger issue with the proposal is that big IF with Eichel. The fact is no one seems to know where he is health wise and while trading for him will appeal to some clubs, a team giving up of its top 5 likely will want to be certain he is healthy.
That’s an interesting hypothetical, Lindros88. But I don’t think Toronto will go with that, and I definitely don’t think they should. Marner and Nylander both are overpaid, but they’re also both stars in their prime with solid resumes. Eichel is damaged goods, and honestly I don’t think he’s the superstar so many people fancy him to be: a true superstar lifts the play of those around him, and Eichel hasn’t done that. (Quite leaving aside the neck issues, which should scare sensible GMs off.)
For the Sabres? Hm. That’d be a pretty humiliating climbdown from “we want four first-round equivalents.” It’s a more than fair deal for them on paper, and they’ve got the cap space to do it, but would they?
In any event, this would be Tavares 2.0: oooooh, let’s go get the biggest, shiniest toy around, rather than gauging the needs of the team and the ability to pay the piper.
That, and why do they need another C? Who plays wing in that scenario?
What are the odds that Tavares pulls a Kucherov and sits the season with a concussion and/or knee issues? 11Mil LTIR could come in handy. I’m a Leafs fan but damn they need to fix that loophole by mandating minimum games played or something. Thoughts?
Tavares isn’t as skilled as Kucherov. If AM34 wants to take a regular season off that’s comparable. But the leafs aren’t nearly as deep as the lightning so it also isn’t quiet as comparable. But either ways….
BS on the league allowing it to happen.
the difference is the season length. doing it in the short season was an easier risk because they knew the timeline. With a concussion, you have no idea. Plus I think the leafs without Taveras would be hard-pressed to even make the playoffs. they will be back to a division with Boston and TB along with Florida and Montreal.
@ MoneyBallJustWorks: you got to figure: in any normal season, Montreal wouldn’t have made the playoffs at all. And then they needed Price to go into God Mode to get as far as they did. Their fourth leading scorer spent the playoffs a healthy scratch, the only real scoring star they had was Toffoli, and this is an old, old team. Price, Perry, Staal, Weber, Petry are all well north of 30, and they’ve got something like 5 guys under 26 — and one of those is Drouin. Barring some disaster striking Toronto or Florida, the Habs don’t make the playoffs next year.
As far as Tavares goes, sure, him going on LTIR *and* the league not closing the loophole does make the Leafs’ cap hell a little easier. He actually hurt there? He’d be interested in sitting the season out just to help them out there? Pretty tall order.