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Free Agent Focus: Winnipeg Jets

at CDT | by 6 Comments

Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Let’s begin with a look at the Jets.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Pierre-Luc Dubois: After a bit of an underwhelming first year with Winnipeg, Dubois was much more impactful this past season, sliding in nicely into the center spot on the second line for a good chunk of the campaign while also playing up when Mark Scheifele was injured.  The end result was numbers that were comparable to his sophomore season with Columbus as he put up 28 goals (a career high) and 32 assists in 81 games.  The 23-year-old is only two years away from being eligible for unrestricted free agency since he started in the NHL at 18 and is owed a $6MM qualifying offer next month.  Dubois is poised to land more than that if he gets to an arbitration hearing on a one-year award while a long-term contract that buys out his prime UFA years could push him closer to the $7.5MM mark.

F Mason Appleton: After a strong showing in 2020-21, Appleton was a widely-expected choice for Seattle in expansion but things didn’t go as well with the Kraken.  That resulted in him being moved back to Winnipeg at the trade deadline but he still scuffled offensively.  In the end, a platform season of 21 points in 68 games isn’t great but it should still be more than enough to push for a small increase on his qualifying offer of $945K, especially since this is his last year of RFA eligibility.  A long-term contract isn’t likely but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Winnipeg try to sign a multi-year pact and gain another year or two of team control in the process.

F Evgeny Svechnikov: The 25-year-old finally got a full NHL season under his belt and held his own in limited minutes, collecting 19 points in 72 games.  That’s not why he’s mentioned here, however.  As teams look to keep costs down on their end-of-roster players (something the Jets have done the last few years), Svechnikov’s arbitration eligibility looms large.  It’s not that an award would be over-the-top expensive (likely around the $1MM range) but depending on what happens with Dubois, Winnipeg is likely to have to get quite thrifty with their last few roster spots and an extra few hundred thousand may be more than they can afford which makes him a potential non-tender candidate.

Other RFAs: G Philippe Desrosiers, D Leon Gawanke, F David Gustafsson, F Jansen Harkins, D Johnathan Kovacevic, F Jeff Malott, D Markus Phillips

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Eric Comrie: Last summer, Winnipeg’s cap situation forced them to have to go with a backup making the minimum salary so Comrie got the nod and had his first full NHL season as a result, albeit with limited minutes.  He made the most of his playing time though, posting a SV% (.920) that was ten points higher than Connor Hellebuyck and a GAA (2.58) that was 39 points better than Hellebuyck.  While no one is going to argue that Comrie should be making the $6.166MM that Hellebuyck is getting, he has positioned himself to command much more than the minimum on the open market.  His limited track record will keep him out of the range of the top backups (around $4MM) but half of that could certainly be attainable.

F Paul Stastny: The 36-year-old was largely under the radar this season but he had a solid year, chipping in with 21 goals and 24 assists in 71 games which is solid second-line production.  Between that and being consistently above average at the faceoff dot, there should be a fairly strong market for Stastny if he makes it to free agency.  He took a pay cut to stay with the Jets last summer, dropping down to $3.75MM and it wouldn’t be surprising to see teams offer more than that on a one-year deal.  However, it’s possible that Stastny decides to take less to go to a contender as well as some veterans do.  He’s eligible for incentives in his contract as long as it’s a one-year deal which could be an option to keep the 2022-23 charge down which would help those contending teams.  Once Dubois signs his new contract, it will be difficult for the Jets to afford to keep him in the fold.

F Zach Sanford: He underwhelmed after joining Winnipeg at the trade deadline but there will be a decent market for the 27-year-old.  While he’s not enough of a reliable offensive threat to play in the top six, he chips in at a reasonable enough clip for a depth player while providing plenty of physicality.  That’s something plenty of teams will have interest in although Sanford may be hard-pressed to make more than the $2MM he received this season coming off a bit of a down season.

Other UFAs: F Adam Brooks, F Luke Johnson, F Austin Poganski, F C.J. Suess

Projected Cap Space

At the moment, Winnipeg has a little over $18MM in wiggle room under the salary cap although they have to re-sign half of a forward group, a backup goalie, and a depth defenseman with those funds.  There’s a good chance over 40% of that will go to Dubois which doesn’t leave GM Kevin Cheveldayoff a lot of room to try to add another impact piece to their roster.  If they largely stick with their current core and don’t make a trade or two to shake things up, they’ll be relying on their new head coach to help take this team back to playoff contention.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Columbus Blue Jackets

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated over the first couple of rounds.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Columbus.

This season was a bit of a mixed bag for the Blue Jackets.  They weren’t expected to contend as their rebuild continued but managed to have their highest-scoring season in franchise history despite the exodus of veteran talent and they integrated several promising youngsters into their lineup.  However, despite that, they still missed the playoffs by 19 points.  At this point, it seems unlikely that they’ll make some big swings to try to get into the thick of the Wild Card race but instead, they’re more likely to stay the course which is to slowly build up; their checklist has that in mind.

Add Grit

Jakub Voracek has been around the league for a long time (14 years) so he should know a thing or two about roster composition.  Following the season, he told reporters including Jeff Svoboda of the Blue Jackets’ team site that the team has struggled when it comes to physicality and it’s something he’d like to see addressed so let’s start with that on their checklist.

Generally speaking, a team that has as young of a core as the Blue Jackets do (they had the lowest average age in the NHL going into the season and only got younger as the year went on) should want to insulate those players with a bit of toughness.  That doesn’t necessarily mean a throwback enforcer but a power forward or two that can play in the bottom six and still be a contributor.  Those players aren’t in as short supply as impact power forwards so they should be able to find some.  That won’t necessarily drastically improve their chances of winning in the short term but if it gives their younger players a little more confidence, there could be some benefits from those additions.

Re-Sign Laine

Last offseason, re-signing Patrik Laine was a priority and since he simply accepted his one-year qualifying offer, it’s back at the top of their list this time around as well.  While the value of the qualifier remains unchanged at $7.5MM, the 24-year-old has more leverage this time around.  He’s now one year away from unrestricted free agency and could simply accept his qualifier again (or file for salary arbitration) and ensure that he’d have a chance at hitting the open market in the prime of his career.

As a result, GM Jarmo Kekalainen will soon be engaging in serious discussions with Laine’s camp on a new deal if he hasn’t done so already.  If the winger wants to keep his options open instead of committing to a long-term deal, then the team will have to give serious consideration to trading him this summer; doing so by the draft would be preferable as some picks would almost certainly be part of any package.

Even if Laine is willing to sign a long-term contract, finding a number that works for both sides will be tricky.  This season was Laine’s first point-per-game campaign but he missed 26 games due to injury.  If we look at his career average on a per-82 extrapolation, Laine checks in at 35 goals and 31 assists.  Those are certainly good numbers but the market value for a player with that type of production isn’t far off the $7.5MM he made this season.  For him to forego testing the market, the Blue Jackets will need to come in above that but at what point does that become too much of an overpayment to justify (even with their current cap flexibility)?

Right now, for Columbus, Laine’s contract should be their top priority.  While there’s no firm deadline to get something done, if they want to know where things stand by the draft, that’s now less than six weeks away while free agency opens up a week after that.

Add Defensive Help

The good news for the Blue Jackets this season was that they set a franchise record for goals scored.  The bad news for them is that they also set a franchise record for the most goals allowed.  With several young forwards with room to continue developing, there’s some hope to maintain or even improve upon their offensive production.

However, there isn’t a lot of room for optimism to significantly improve that defensive number as things stand.  Their goaltending tandem remains intact with Elvis Merzlikins and Joonas Korpisalo with neither netminder coming off a particularly strong season.  Both are capable of being better but with the back end Columbus currently has, that improvement might not be too big.

Accordingly, this is an area that needs to be addressed.  They have a decent core of younger players which is fine for a rebuilding team but as they look to emerge from that, some veterans that are capable of playing an impact role should be added.  It probably won’t all come in one summer – this process will likely be gradual – but an emphasis on bringing in someone capable of playing the penalty kill and in key defensive situations would certainly help to stabilize things in the short term.

Gavrikov Extension Talks

Over his three years with the Blue Jackets, Vladislav Gavrikov has worked his way into a prominent role on the back end.  But because he waited until the age of 23 to come to North America, he’s already just a year away from unrestricted free agency after Kekalainen curiously signed him to a bridge contract that walked him straight to UFA eligibility.

With Seth Jones, David Savard, and even Ryan Murray departing in recent years, Columbus has seen some important defenders leave.  They did well to get good assets back for Jones and Savard in trades but the talent coming in hasn’t been close to the talent that left.  To lose Gavrikov next summer or even at the trade deadline would deal them another blow.

As a result, trying to work out an extension will be fairly high on Kekalainen’s to-do list, especially as the offseason progresses.  He’s going to be in line for a nice raise on his $2.8MM AAV especially coming off the year he had (33 points in 82 games while averaging over 22 minutes a night) but his salary for next season – $4.2MM – serves as a reasonable starting point for talks.  A multi-year offer a little above that rate (in the $4.5MM to $4.75MM range) might be enough to get it done and ensure that a key piece of their defensive squad is a pair of the post-rebuild future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: San Jose Sharks

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated early in the postseason.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at San Jose.

After being a consistent playoff threat including 14 appearances in a 15-year stretch, things haven’t gone as well for the Sharks in recent years as they’ve missed in three straight seasons.  With a veteran-laden roster and minimal flexibility from a salary cap perspective, it’s a big checklist for them to navigate through this summer.

Hire A GM

Before even getting into what needs to be done, the Sharks need to determine who is going to do the work.  Interim GM Joe Will clearly has the green light to make moves as evidenced by the contract extensions for Alexander Barabanov and Jaycob Megna earlier this month.  Ownership has expressed an openness to having Will take the team through the draft and potentially into free agency as well.  While that’s a nice short-term vote of confidence, it doesn’t seem as if Will is considered a strong candidate for the full-time position.

But it isn’t just a matter of who the next GM will be, it’s when that person takes over.  If Will has control going into free agency, it’s possible he makes decisions that his successor won’t like.  That makes that scenario a tough one to play out.  As a result, determining who the full-time GM will be and getting that person under contract as soon as possible needs to be at the top of their priority list.

Move A Goalie

Most of the time, a three-goalie system isn’t tenable for a full season.  San Jose was able to make it work after the trade deadline with Adin Hill missing time but he’ll be fully recovered for training camp.  James Reimer is still on the roster while Kaapo Kahkonen was brought in at the deadline in the Jacob Middleton trade.  At first glance, it sure seems like one of them needs to be moved.

Kahkonen is the youngest of the three at 25 and is a restricted free agent this summer.  To move a quality young blueliner for him only to trade Kahkonen away later doesn’t seem likely to happen.  Instead, a multi-year contract that buys out some UFA years is probably their preferred outcome if they can afford it on the cap.

That leaves Hill and Reimer battling for one spot.  Both players have one year left on their contracts and will be UFA-eligible in 2023.  The cap hits are nearly identical ($2.25MM for Reimer, $2.175MM for Hill).  But when it comes to age and experience, there’s a big difference as the 34-year-old Reimer has 433 career NHL appearances while the 26-year-old Hill sits at 74.  If the Sharks are prioritizing the longer-term, Hill has the most upside but it’s also possible that it comes down to if one is willing to sign an extension this summer.  Neither netminder is likely to carry much trade value but it would be tough for the Sharks to carry all three on the roster in October.

Meier Extension Talks

Back in 2019, the Sharks signed winger Timo Meier to a four-year, $24MM contract as a restricted free agent.  On its own, the AAV was reasonable and it allowed him to still be RFA-eligible at the end of the deal.  But his contract was the most extreme of the backloaded contracts done that summer as his salary for next season is $10MM.  Since that deal was signed before the new CBA, he’s not subjected to the new rule where the qualifier is the lower of the previous salary or 120% of the AAV.  In other words, they have to qualify him at $10MM next summer if he’s not on a new contract by then.

A few years ago when the salary cap was steadily on the rise, the number would have been a little inflated but potentially manageable.  Now, with the Upper Limit barely moving for the time being, offering Meier $10MM isn’t manageable, at least with the state of the rest of their roster.

While Meier is signed for next season already, there is a pressure point of sorts this summer.  In an ideal world, San Jose doesn’t want him to enter 2022-23 without a new deal in place.  Getting to next summer where Meier either has to be let go or qualified at an above-market rate isn’t palatable for the team.  As a result, finding a suitable extension now has to be a priority.  Meier is worth a raise on his current AAV and is coming off a career year that saw him pick up 35 goals and 41 assists but it shouldn’t be up to $10MM per season.  Whoever is named as the permanent GM is going to have a big negotiation this summer as a result.

Free Up Cap Space

The Sharks have some big contracts on the books, especially on the back end where they have over $31MM in commitments and that doesn’t include RFA Mario Ferraro who is coming off a season where he logged 23 minutes a game.  Even without arbitration eligibility, he’s in a good position to command a sizable raise of his own off his entry-level salary.

Right now, San Jose could get through the summer okay.  They could try to sign Ferraro and Kahkonen for one year, sign their other RFAs to one-year deals, trade a goalie, and manage to narrowly stay cap-compliant by carrying a roster close to the minimum size.  But will they be any better than they’ve been the last few seasons?  Probably not.  Looking ahead to the 2023 summer, they’ll have 11 players signed at just over $57.5MM which doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room for improvement in the future either, especially considering Meier needs a new deal that summer.

As a result, if they want to add an impact player or even have the flexibility to shake up their roster, they need to move a big contract.  Brent Burns ($8MM through 2024-25), Erik Karlsson ($11.5MM through 2026-27), and Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($7MM through 2025-26) are the oft-discussed possibilities although they each have at least some form of trade protection and not a particularly robust trade market because of their contracts.  No one said it would be easy but for the Sharks to have a chance to shake things up, they will need to find a way to move out one of those rearguards.

Resolve Kane Grievance

There is one other factor at play when it comes to San Jose’s summer and that’s the Evander Kane situation.  The expectation is that it will be resolved by the start of free agency but there is still plenty of uncertainty surrounding whether or not his deal will be put back on their books, the termination will be upheld, or, most likely, a settlement is reached which is what happened with the Kings and Mike Richards when things went down that path back in 2015.  The details of any potential settlement will go a long way towards determining what space they have to work with this summer and how much extra emphasis will have to be placed on clearing out one of their existing contracts.  The sooner they find out the end result of this, the better.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

PHR Mailbag: Senators, Dumba, Rangers, Underrated Players, Kraken, Bruins, Kings, Penguins Coaching Staff

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Mathew Dumba and Minnesota’s cap crunch, the Rangers’ center situation beyond this season, Seattle’s underwhelming year, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

MoneyBallJustWorks: What is the next step for the Sens. The team has stockpiled a good core of youth (especially on the blue line) but what do they have to do this offseason to take the next step?

The young nucleus for the Senators is pretty strong between Brady Tkachuk, Joshua Norris, Tim Stutzle, and Drake Batherson up front plus Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson on the back end.  Now, they need to upgrade the supporting cast, so to speak.

Defensively, they need a top-four, all situations type of player.  Players like Nick Holden, Nikita Zaitsev, and even trade deadline acquisition Travis Hamonic are serviceable veterans that can raise the floor of their defense corps.  While that’s useful, now GM Pierre Dorion needs to raise the ceiling for this group to take a step forward.  Chabot and Sanderson plus Artem Zub and Erik Brannstrom have some room to grow but with the right veterans, they’ll get there faster.

Up front, the top line is pretty much set with Tkachuk, Norris, and Batherson.  But Stutzle’s linemates aren’t as consistent or anywhere near as good.  Connor Brown is a good veteran but he’s not a big scorer while Alex Formenton’s speed is high-end but his scoring isn’t.  Upgrading one (or if you want to aim big, both) of those spots would really deepen the offense.

On top of that, a goalie upgrade would help them take a step forward.  Anton Forsberg isn’t a true starter, Matt Murray has underachieved, and Filip Gustavsson may not be ready for a full-time NHL roster spot (although waiver eligibility will probably keep him up).

That’s a huge wish list but adding any of those elements will help them get back to at least realistically battling for a playoff spot next season.  That would be a good next step for Ottawa who isn’t really in a position to go from a bottom-feeder to a contender overnight unless Dorion manages to have the offseason of a lifetime and hit on all of these areas.

DarkSide830: With his name in past rumors and MIN needing to make a move, I wonder, can PHI make a move for Dumba? They need to get better on the back end and he could be available for 80 cents on the dollar with MIN’s crunch. I presume they need to move out a JVR then. Can they move enough of JVR’s cap without having to give someone a pick with it so they can reasonably fit Dumba in?

While I agree that Minnesota has a cap crunch, I disagree that they will make someone like Dumba available for 80 cents on the dollar.  Yes, everyone knows they need to clear money but whoever goes – Dumba or Kevin Fiala (who’d fit one of those holes in Ottawa we just went over) – there will be enough demand that they’ll be able to get full value.  Let’s say it’s Dumba.  The UFA market for impact defensemen isn’t the deepest and Dumba’s cap hit is lower than what players like Kris Letang and John Klingberg are going to get.  That bodes well for maximizing trade value, even with their hand being forced.

As for James van Riemsdyk, they’re not going to get much cap relief in a trade unless they send a pick with him.  If I was an acquiring team, I’m pointing at the Patrick Marleau to Carolina trade as a benchmark; that move cost Toronto a first-rounder.  Is it possible that they flip him for another underachieving veteran that makes a little less?  Sure.  That is definitely a plausible option.  But will they save enough to fit Dumba’s $6MM in?  Nope.  Frankly, I’m not sure they’d save more on the cap next season than if they bought him out ($4.33MM cap charge) with a trade.

And if I’m Philadelphia GM Chuck Fletcher, notwithstanding the van Riemsdyk thing, do I really want to part with the first-round pick and/or a top young asset that it will probably take to get into the bidding to acquire Dumba?  That’s not a smart strategy for a non-playoff team, even if it’s a core he thinks is better than it has shown.  Once you do factor in the likely cost to offload van Riemsdyk’s contract for cap relief on top of the acquisition cost, the price for Dumba is one they shouldn’t be willing to pay.

Bill Blueshirt: The NYR need a 2C next year while being in a cap squeeze. Strome seems unaffordable. Do they a) sign Copp, b) go with Chytil and backfill at 3C, c) trade some of their many prospects for a C (and who would that be), or d) ???

I’m not convinced the bidding for Ryan Strome is going to be super high this summer.  Yes, he has put up impressive numbers the last couple of seasons but he was doing that with Artemi Panarin on the wing a good chunk of the time.  But his history before getting to New York was spotty at best and I’m confident there are general managers out there who will be hesitant to commit a big contract to him this summer.

I’m not saying there won’t be a good market for him but I wouldn’t be shocked if his AAV winds up being close to where Andrew Copp’s lands.  If that’s the case, I don’t think Strome re-signing can easily be ruled out.

Do they need to free up some money?  Probably.  I wonder if they try to find a taker for Patrik Nemeth and take a cheaper player back to give them some wiggle room.  But if they go with some cheap end-of-roster options and make a small cap-clearing move or two (Alexandar Georgiev being another one), I think they can cobble enough together to make an intermediate type of offer that could be enough to keep one of Copp or Strome in the fold.  So, to answer your question, I’ll pick either a or d.

FearTheWilson: In your opinion who are the most underrated players in the league?

This is always a hard question to answer as underrated can be interpreted in a few different contexts.  I could rhyme off some names that some of you may not be familiar with that are actually important players and that would qualify as underrated.  But I suspect you’re looking for more prominent names so I’ll go with those.

Quick, think of an impact center on the Blues.  No, not Ryan O’Reilly.  Not Brayden Schenn either who, for many, would be the second one that comes to mind with his contract.  Meanwhile, all Robert Thomas did this season was lead their centers in scoring while logging nearly 19 minutes a night.  He was an impact offensive player in junior and while it has taken a few years for him to truly become an impact player in the NHL, he’s there, even if he doesn’t immediately come to mind when St. Louis centers are being discussed.

Roope Hintz is a player that many are familiar with.  If you were thinking to yourself that he’s a good secondary scorer, it’d certainly be understandable.  When digging into this question, that’s where I was leaning.  But he averaged over a point per game last year and followed that up with 37 goals and 35 assists this season, finishing tied for 20th in the league in goals.  That’s not a good secondary scorer, that’s a higher-end primary player who, by the way, spends a lot of time at center after coming up as a winger a few years ago.  He definitely fits the bill of being underrated.

As for a defenseman, the first one that came to mind was Calgary’s Rasmus Andersson.  He showed flashes of offensive upside over his first few NHL seasons but found another gear this season as he very quickly reached the 50-point mark.  But he isn’t just a slick-skating, offensive defender.  He takes a regular turn on the penalty kill and is trusted in all situations while leading the Flames in ice time.  Despite all of that, if I ran a poll of what type of blueliner he is, I think a ‘good number four’ would probably win out.  He’s much more than that; Andersson is quietly pushing for lower-end number one territory.

I’ll add a goalie to the list as well in Islanders netminder Ilya Sorokin.  His delayed arrival in North America has resulted in limited exposure; he has played in just 74 career NHL games.  On top of that, New York had a season to forget as they were out of contention early.  But Sorokin very quietly was second in the league in save percentage this season (.925) and fourth in goals against average (2.40), impressive numbers for a non-playoff team.  If he puts up similar numbers next season and the Isles rebound in the standings, Sorokin will be in the discussion for the Vezina Trophy.  But when it comes to thinking of top NHL goaltenders, his name often doesn’t come up.

trak2k: If the Kraken do not “do anything” in free agency and or struggle at the beginning of next season do they fire the GM?

I don’t think there’s any chance of a GM change in Seattle within the next year.  When the Kraken chose their roster in expansion, it became more than evident that they were planning a longer-scale build.  In other words, they were going to have the development curve of a traditional expansion team.  That results in losing seasons early on.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Ron Francis did a particularly good job in assembling his roster in expansion and even their coaching choice was underwhelming.  But he got the green light to build this way.  To turn around and go back on that this early doesn’t seem like a likely outcome.

If I was Francis, I wouldn’t be overly active in free agency this summer.  With so many teams in cap trouble, they’re ripe for the picking in terms of adding extra picks and prospects in exchange for taking on an unwanted contract or two, improving their future, and probably helping the current team in the process.  Basically, do what they didn’t do a year ago.

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Offseason Checklist: Anaheim Ducks

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated early in the postseason.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Anaheim.

The Ducks got off to a good start this season which had them in the thick of the playoff race for most of the year before slowing down late in the year which helped lead to a significant sale at the trade deadline.  GM Pat Verbeek now has a largely clean slate to work with as he enters his first summer at the helm but has some work to do.

Leverage Cap Space

At the moment, Anaheim has over $39MM in cap space with their most prominent restricted free agents being forwards Sonny Milano, Isac Lundestrom, and Sam Steel.  They’re all capable young players but none of them are going to break the bank and significantly cut into that spending room.  If Verbeek has the green light to go to the $82.5MM Upper Limit, he could be a big player in the summer spending around the league.

The big question is what is the best way to spend that money?  They could try to go for the quick fix and look to add several impact veterans which would help replace the exodus of veterans at the trade deadline.  At a time when many teams will have to show restraint in free agency, the Ducks could splurge.  That said, with what’s coming down the pipeline a year from now (more on that shortly), is that the best route for them to take?  And is the rebuild ready to be over or does more work need to be done?  If the answer is the latter, spending big now makes less sense.

If they’re not ready to spend big just yet, then leveraging that cap space in trade talks might be the better way for Anaheim to go.  They should be able to get some future assets in exchange for acquiring an above-market contract with the approach that Arizona has taken recently.  Those contracts will often be shorter in length compared to what they’d be handing out to free agents in July which would preserve their flexibility when their young core is closer to being ready to try to contend.  Retaining salary in a trade (or being a third-party facilitator) to add extra assets is another option as well.  One way or the other, Verbeek will need to take advantage of the opportunity he has with the scarcity of cap space around the league.

Determine Gibson’s Future

Few players have been with the Ducks as long as John Gibson has.  Along the way, the 28-year-old has seen his fair share of ups and downs, both in terms of Anaheim’s performance and his own.  Back at training camp, however, he voiced his frustration with the team shifting towards a rebuild, indicating he was tired of losing.  That has resulted in plenty of speculation about his future with the team.

This isn’t a situation where Gibson is on an expiring contract and a decision of either extend or trade needs to happen.  With five years left on his deal, they’re not going to be in that situation anytime soon.  But with Gibson’s discontentment about where Anaheim has been from a competitive standpoint, they will have to consider whether or not to move him, especially if Verbeek intends to extend the rebuild for another year or two.  Keeping a player who is clearly going to be frustrated with that situation isn’t ideal.

That said, it’s not as if his trade market is particularly strong.  His .904 SV% was below the NHL average this season while a 3.19 GAA isn’t overly impressive either.  Part of that is playing behind a team that had a lot of inexperienced players but that’s only part of it; Gibson wasn’t particularly sharp as well.  For perspective, his save percentage has hovered around that mark for the last three seasons.  A netminder with those numbers that has another half of a decade left on his contract at a $6.4MM AAV isn’t going to carry a lot of trade value.  In general, starting goalies don’t carry great value in the first place but certainly, ones that have underachieved as Gibson has aren’t going to have a lot of suitors.

Are they better selling low and taking a run at a replacement goalie in free agency to partner with Anthony Stolarz next season or do they hold onto one of their longest-tenured players even with him being unhappy about rebuilding?  Neither scenario is great but it’s something that will need to be looked at this summer.

Extension Talks

Right now, cap space is plentiful but that is going to change next summer when three of their top young players are all in need of new contracts.

Troy Terry had a breakout year, leading the Ducks in scoring with 37 goals and 30 assists in 75 games after putting up just 48 points in his first 129 career contests.  The low output led to a bridge contract which he has clearly outperformed already.  Since he’s on his second contract already, the 24-year-old will be arbitration-eligible next summer where he’ll be two years away from UFA eligibility and anything close to a repeat season would push his asking price into the $7MM or more range on a long-term deal while giving him a strong arbitration case if got that far.  If Verbeek is convinced that Terry’s production wasn’t a one-off but rather a sign of things to come, it would make sense for him to try to work out an extension now.

Meanwhile, Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale will be in the final year of their entry-level deals next season and are also extension-eligible in mid-July.  Both players will have five years of team control left next summer and won’t be able to file for arbitration.  Zegras didn’t look out of place as their top center last season and with Ryan Getzlaf gone, he will be carrying a bigger workload as well which could result in a jump from the 61 points he had this season.  Drysdale, meanwhile, averaged nearly 20 minutes per game in his first NHL campaign while chipping in with 32 points, numbers that should only go up in 2022-23.  Many teams often try to work out an early extension over running the risk of an extended negotiation the following summer and Verbeek will certainly want to do that here.

Getting these extensions worked out early would give the Ducks a much better overview of what their salary cap picture will look like in 2023 and beyond.  Three long-term contracts will take a big chunk out of their spending room but if the two sides are too far apart in negotiations to the point where a shorter-term deal makes sense (more for Drysdale and Zegras than Terry), that would then open up some extra spending room for a couple of years.  The sooner they know what they have to work with, the better.

Coaching Decisions

Verbeek opted to pick up the team option on Dallas Eakins’ deal, ensuring he’ll return for his fourth season behind Anaheim’s bench.  But teams often don’t like their head coaches heading into ‘lame-duck’ situations so this might not be desirable for the team.  In those instances, a one-year or two-year extension could be on the table, one that takes away any short-term uncertainty but also doesn’t carry a significant commitment if things go sideways and Verbeek decides he wants to make a change.

There is also some work to do at the AHL level as a full coaching staff is required for the second straight summer.  Joel Bouchard along with assistants Daniel Jacob and Max Talbot were somewhat surprisingly let go after their first season following San Diego being eliminated in the play-in round for the playoffs.  AHL coaching staffs don’t have to be in place at the start of free agency but if they want to try to go after some free agents that are ticketed for the Gulls, it would be useful for them to have their staff in place by then to avoid any uncertainty as those free agents will likely want to know who is coaching before they sign.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Buffalo Sabres

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those that were eliminated early in the postseason.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Buffalo.

It wasn’t a great year in the standings but things are looking up for the Sabres.  The team was much more competitive in Don Granato’s first season behind the bench and several of their young players made promising strides to show that brighter days could soon be on the horizon.  With that in mind, Buffalo’s checklist looks a bit different than it has in recent years as they should now begin the process of trying to add talent and emerge from their rebuild.

Sign A Veteran Goalie

At the moment, Buffalo has six goaltenders under contract.  Once the calendar flips to the new league year in July, that number drops to zero.  GM Kevyn Adams will be busy on that front, to say the least, both in terms of NHL and AHL signings.  Let’s look at the NHL situation here.

It’s widely expected that Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen will be promoted from the minors to fill one of the two spots with Buffalo as he continues his development and the team continues to evaluate whether or not he’ll be the goalie of the future for them.  But the most games he has played in any of his professional seasons is 44.  Between that and the fact he has just 13 NHL appearances under his belt, it’s safe to say that he’s not yet ready to assume the true starting role.

As a result, Adams will be looking for a veteran that is capable of playing more than a typical backup role.  A short-term starter would make some sense or failing that, a platoon netminder to split time with Luukkonen would also work.  Craig Anderson is among Buffalo’s pending unrestricted free agents and it seems like re-signing the 41-year-old would be their preference as he fit in quite well in his first season with Buffalo.  It’s questionable if he can hold up under a higher workload than the 31 games he played in 2021-22 so if he is their choice, a veteran third-stringer to stash at AHL Rochester certainly would make some sense.

Decide Olofsson’s Future

Victor Olofsson has had an up-and-down tenure with Buffalo so far.  After a surprise showing in his rookie season that saw him put up 20 goals and 22 assists in just 54 games, the two sides settled on a bridge contract, a reasonable course of action.  The first year didn’t go well and for the majority of this season, things weren’t much better.  At the end of February, he had just seven goals in 44 games and looked like he could be heading for non-tender territory.

But once March hit, the 26-year-old suddenly rediscovered his scoring touch, potting 13 goals along with 12 assists in the final 28 games.  While the usual caveat about reading too much into production when a team is well out of playoff contention certainly applies, Olofsson may have shown enough to warrant another contract.

If that’s the case, what is the right deal?  This is Olofsson’s final year of RFA eligibility so it’s not as if they can work out a short-term pact and then re-assess before he’s UFA-eligible.  With him being unrestricted no matter what, a one-year contract isn’t ideal from Buffalo’s perspective while finding common ground on a long-term deal could be tricky given the year-to-year variability in his performance.

Olofsson is owed a $3.25MM qualifying offer and has arbitration eligibility this summer.  With a little over six weeks until qualifiers are due, Adams will need to make a decision on this front sooner than later.

Add Defensive Help

At the moment, Buffalo has just three defensemen signed for next season that are locks to make the opening roster.  They’re all aged 22 or younger in Rasmus Dahlin, Henri Jokiharju, and Owen Power.  That’s a solid cluster of young impact blueliners that are going to be around for a little while but they need some veteran support.

This is something that the Sabres haven’t really tried to address in recent years which is understandable with the team clearly more interested in being at the bottom of the standings than the top over that stretch.  Doing so allowed Dahlin and Jokiharju to log heavy minutes and play through some mistakes.

However, assuming their plan is to start to push forward with trying to get back to the playoffs after missing the postseason for an 11th straight year, they need some veterans capable of logging heavy minutes to work with these three.  In an ideal world, they find three of them, one to partner with each youngster which would allow someone like Mattias Samuelsson to see more AHL action.

That said, adding three impact blueliners would be a tall task for any team, especially since there aren’t a lot of them available in free agency this summer.  With more than ample cap space though, this seems like an area where Adams should have the green light to bid aggressively.  Three would be perfect, two would be nice, but one is simply a necessity if they want to help their goalies and more importantly, help their young rearguards find another level in their development.

Thompson Extension Talks

The first season of Tage Thompson’s bridge contract didn’t go well as he put up just 14 points in 38 games in 2020-21.  Heading into this season, expectations were quite low as a result.  If he could lock down a full-time spot and play with some consistency, it likely would have been viewed as a success.

But what the 24-year-old did in 2021-22 was far beyond realistic expectations, likely beyond even the most optimistic projections for Thompson as he put up 38 goals and 30 assists.  That goal total put him 19th in the entire league while he also made the transition to playing down the middle.  While it took several years, Thompson certainly showed the offensive promise that made him a first-round pick back in 2016.

Thompson’s timing for his offensive outburst was pretty optimal as well as he’s eligible to sign a contract extension once free agency opens up in mid-July and he officially enters the final year of his deal.  If Adams and the Sabres believe that Thompson’s performance is a sign of things to come, they will almost certainly try to work out an extension this summer as anything close to a repeat performance in 2022-23 will only drive the asking price higher.  Meanwhile, after being a depth player for the first few years of his career, the prospect of a big money, long-term extension might appeal to Thompson.  This is something that doesn’t have to happen but it wouldn’t be surprising to see both sides take a run at an extension in the coming months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Detroit Red Wings

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus some that were eliminated early in the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Detroit.

It has been a rough few seasons for the Red Wings.  After their streak of 25 straight playoff appearances came to an end in 2017, they haven’t seen the playoffs since then.  They have brought in several promising youngsters in recent years and the expectation is that they’ll soon get back to battling for a playoff spot at a minimum.  With that in mind, their summer checklist is more geared towards win-now moves compared to recent years.

Hire A Head Coach

First things first.  After parting ways with Jeff Blashill, who had been one of the longer-tenured coaches in the league, Detroit now needs a new bench boss for the first time since 2015 when Mike Babcock left for Toronto.  Blashill’s tenure wasn’t overly successful in terms of his record (204-261-72) but with the team going through a reset, it wasn’t as much of a concern.  But now with an expectation of more on-ice success, GM Steve Yzerman decided now is the right time for a change.

With that in mind, it will be interesting to see what direction they go.  Are they looking for someone that is going to help them get back to the playoffs first and foremost or are they hoping for a longer-term fit?  The two don’t have to be mutually exclusive but the first category opens up the ability to hire a veteran coach who can get quick results but who typically has a short shelf life, giving them some extra options to consider.  On the other hand, if Yzerman is looking for a long-term fit, then the potential for a first-time hire stands out a bit more.

Either way, getting a coach in place well before the summer transactions get underway will be important as whoever takes the job will likely want to provide some input on what else the Red Wings do this summer.

Extension Talks

Two of Detroit’s top players will be eligible for contract extensions once free agency opens up in July in Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi.  Larkin, their captain, has been on a bargain contract for the past four seasons with a $6.1MM AAV, a price tag that’s below market value for a number one center.  That will certainly change on his next contract as recent comparables will likely push his price tag over the $8MM mark per season.  There’s no doubt that Yzerman will want to extend the Michigan native and keep him in the fold, especially since they don’t have an up-and-coming number one center behind him.  In Tampa Bay, Yzerman’s talks with captain Steven Stamkos went right down to the wire.  In an ideal world, that doesn’t happen so they’re likely to try to hammer something out this summer.

As for Bertuzzi, while he was in the headlines for not being able to play in Canada due to his vaccination status, that overshadowed a career year that saw him set career highs in goals (30) and assists (32) in 68 games while averaging nearly 20 minutes a night.  That’s top-line production at a $4.75MM price tag which is also well below market value.  Bertuzzi is a couple of years older than Larkin but at 27, he’s still young enough to be part of the core.  This summer, Yzerman needs to find out what Bertuzzi’s asking price is to see if it fits within their future salary structure.  If not, his name could be in trade speculation soon after.

Reshape The Back End

Detroit’s back end got a big lift this season with the arrival of Moritz Seider who is a very strong contender to win the Calder Trophy as the top rookie next month.  However, their defense corps has been a weak spot for the past several seasons and will need to be addressed this offseason.

Long-time rearguard Danny DeKeyser is set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer and is unlikely to return unless it’s at a very steep discount.  Marc Staal is also a pending UFA and while he’s not the higher-end shutdown player he was in his prime, he still filled a stable stay-at-home role for the Red Wings over the last couple of years.  He could be back but would need to be replaced if he doesn’t return.

At the moment, there are only three other regular defensemen signed for next season beyond Seider – Filip Hronek, Gustav Lindstrom, and Jordan Oesterle.  Hronek had a tough year in his own end but has some trade value if they decide to shake things up while Lindstrom and Oesterle are better as depth pieces.  So, too, are recent signing Steven Kampfer and pending RFAs Olli Juolevi and Jake Walman.  Beyond Hronek, none of those players should be in impact roles next season.

Detroit will have another top youngster coming to North America in 2022-23 in Simon Edvinsson and while he has shown plenty of promise, it’s hard to expect he’ll come in and suddenly solve all of their defensive issues.  Adding an impact veteran (if not two) will be needed to help shore up a group that allowed the third-most goals in the league this season and help take some pressure off the goaltenders.  Fortunately, they have over $35MM in cap space at their disposal so they can afford to shop at the higher end of the market this summer.

Find A New Second Goalie

Speaking of their goalies, Detroit needs to find a second goaltender to partner with Alex Nedeljkovic.  Thomas Greiss had a particularly tough season and is unlikely to be retained while Calvin Pickard, their third-string option, is also a pending UFA and isn’t really in the mix for an NHL spot either.  Magnus Hellberg signed late in the year but he’s more of a viable third-string option than a strong contender for the backup spot.

As usual, there are several Greiss-like goalies available, veterans that can be signed for a year or two to continue the platoon and maintain the status quo.  Alternatively, a handful of netminders could be moved this summer that could be plausible platoon options as well.

That said, are the Red Wings better off looking for a longer-term option?  Darcy Kuemper still has a few years as a starter left in him while Ville Husso and Jack Campbell have both shown flashes and are young enough to be around for a while.  While Detroit has Sebastian Cossa, a prospect they have high hopes for, it typically takes a few years for a goaltender to be NHL-ready.  Instead of continuing to churn through goalies for short-term fixes, perhaps a longer-term solution that serves as a bridge to Cossa is a better way for them to go this summer.  Either way, they will need a new netminder in the next couple of months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Salary figures courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Ottawa Senators

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t playoff-bound plus some that were eliminated early in the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Ottawa.

Before last season, Senators GM Pierre Dorion declared the rebuild over.  The team went on to post a weaker points percentage and finished seventh in the Atlantic Division after finishing sixth in the North the year before.  Nevertheless, they’re still on the right path towards trying to get back into the playoff picture and their checklist follows that mindset with a mixture of retaining their current core and trying to add to it.

Shore Up Goaltending

One area that hasn’t been pretty the last couple of years is between the pipes.  Anton Forsberg exceeded expectations as a waiver claim and did well enough to earn himself a three-year extension just before the trade deadline.  After him, however, there are question marks; even Forsberg is somewhat of a question with just 104 games under his belt.

Matt Murray has struggled mightily in his two seasons with Ottawa, posting a 3.23 GAA and a SV% of just .899 over that stretch.  He suffered a concussion back in early March, the third documented one of his career already after having two in quick succession with Pittsburgh.  At this point, it’s hard to rely on him to provide much even though he has two years left on his contract at a $6.25MM AAV, one that’s effectively untradeable.

Their other in-house option is Filip Gustavsson.  Once viewed as a key goalie prospect of Ottawa’s future, he has underwhelmed in his limited NHL action so far.  He is waiver-eligible next season so he’s likely to be on the roster although relying on him would also be risky.

This is not a trio of goaltenders that will inspire a lot of confidence for a team with playoff aspirations.  Finding a capable second goaltender to partner with Forsberg would give them a big lift.  It’ll be easier said than done with Murray on the books and Gustavsson’s trade value not exactly at its peak but Dorion would be wise to try to bring in an upgrade between the pipes.

Flip The Switch

Regardless of whether or not they’re able to shore up the goaltending, Dorion needs to start focusing on some win-now moves.  They’re not going to go from being near the basement to a contender right away but the time has come to start shopping for veterans that are going to help the process of turning things around.

Up front, that means looking for a top-six winger.  Ottawa’s front line appears to be set with Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson flanking Joshua Norris.  However, with Tim Stutzle anchoring the second line, his options on the wing aren’t anywhere near as strong and have been a collection of youngsters looking to establish themselves in the NHL or a veteran like Connor Brown who has been more of a two-way player than a consistent offensive threat.  Bringing in a quality scoring winger would elevate Stutzle’s play and really give the Senators a second line that’s capable of producing with consistency.

There’s also work that needs to be done on the back end beyond non-tendering Victor Mete and parting with Michael Del Zotto.  Travis Hamonic was brought in to try to stabilize a back end that bleeds shots allowed (more than 33 per game after allowing just over 32 per game the year before) but while he’s a stable veteran, that alone isn’t going to change their fortunes.  A full season from Jake Sanderson probably doesn’t hurt but another impact defender would make a big difference.

Ottawa doesn’t yet have $60MM in commitments for next season and while that will change once they re-sign their restricted free agents, they will have ample room to try to add.  If they opt to buy out Colin White (at a cap charge of $3.75MM total spread out over six seasons), they’ll have nearly $4MM extra to work with this summer as well.

Re-Sign Norris

Last summer, it was Tkachuk that was in line for a big contract coming off his entry-level deal.  This year, it’s Norris.  The 23-year-old had a breakout campaign, leading Ottawa in goals with 35 while finishing third in points with 55.  Dorion’s preference has been to sign long-term contracts off expiring entry-level pacts as he did for Tkachuk, Batherson, and Thomas Chabot so he’s likely going to want to do the same here.

One of the challenges that both sides will here is Norris’ shorter track record.  His first season was just three games and he has only 125 career NHL appearances under his belt, the equivalent of a year and a half.  That isn’t a big sample size to go off of and he doesn’t have arbitration eligibility so this has the potential to be a particularly drawn-out negotiation.  If Ottawa wants to skip the bridge contract and look for a long-term pact, Norris’ camp is likely to point to Nick Suzuki’s contract in Montreal (eight years, $7.875MM AAV) which would also stay within their salary structure as it would check in a little below Tkachuk and Chabot.

Extension Talks

Speaking of long-term contracts handed out to players coming off of their entry-level contracts, Ottawa could be in that situation next summer with Stutzle’s deal coming to an end.  After a stronger sophomore year, Dorion will likely want to kick the tires on what an extension now might cost, knowing that a stronger platform season would result in a higher asking price the following year.  It’s likely to fall in the range of Tkachuk, Chabot, and probably Norris in terms of the AAV.

Ottawa also has a pair of intriguing players that will be unrestricted next summer and thus eligible for extension talks at the start of the new league year in mid-July.  Brown has been a solid performer since coming over from Toronto but is his role likelier to stay where it is now or do they envision him being more of a third-liner down the road?  The answer to that will go a long way in determining whether or not discussions of a new deal make sense.

The other UFA of note in 2023 is defenseman Artem Zub.  His numbers don’t jump off the page (22 points in 81 games) but he logged over 21 minutes a night and is a right-shot defender that will hit the open market in 2023 at the age of 27.  In other words, there is going to be a lot of interest if he gets to that point.  Dorion moved quickly to extend Zub when his entry-level contract ended and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him try to get an early extension done again.  If so, his teammate Nikita Zaitsev’s contract ($4.5MM AAV) is a possible comparable.

For the last few seasons, the Senators have been near the bottom in spending on the cap.  As their young core matures and other veterans are added or brought in to deepen the roster, that’s going to change fast.  The more certainty they can get on the spending front, the better which is why being proactive on the contract discussion front should be a priority for Dorion.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Salary figures courtesy of CapFriendly.

PHR Mailbag: Devils, Trotz, Maple Leafs, Predators, Predictions, Penguins, Quenneville

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Barry Trotz’s market, Toronto’s early playoff exit, what’s next for Nashville, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

M34: With a pretty strong young core and some team-friendly veteran contracts with plenty of room to spare, which UFA goalie does NJ pursue?  Kuemper?  Fleury?

Non-tendered: Another one regarding the Devils — It appears as if they have the assets and cap space to acquire an elite goaltender, which many believe is their biggest need. Is the notion of needing an elite goaltender done? The Oilers are primed to go deep and look at all the goalie problems they’ve had. Carolina is a revolving door of consonants between the pipes. How many elite goalies are there, really? Vasy, Shesterkin, Bob?

I’d prefer the Devils to shore up the netminder for 7+ years to come, but I’m not sure Kuemper, Gibson, or Husso are the ones. Who do the Devils look to to improve the goalie situation and what do they with all their assets?

I had a similar question in a mailbag last month so I won’t dig too deep into who they go after.  But I think the Devils are going to have a hard time making themselves attractive to veterans like Darcy Kuemper and Marc-Andre Fleury.  Kuemper is on a top team with a chance for a long playoff run.  To turn around and go to a team that has consistently been out of the playoffs for a while would be surprising.  As for Fleury, he’s near the end of his career.  He wants to win or play where he’s comfortable.  I don’t think New Jersey fits either situation.

The UFA I think they go after is Ville Husso.  They have the cap space to go higher on the AAV than most teams will so why not go for some upside?  There’s some risk but if they offset that with a capable 1B option (I suggested a trade for Boston’s Linus Ullmark in that previous mailbag assuming he’s willing to waive his no-move protection), the risk would be mitigated to an extent.  That would give them a capable tandem with a big of upside and some certainty; Ullmark is signed for three years and Husso will probably get that long or more.  Some stability between the pipes certainly wouldn’t hurt.  I also don’t think they’d need to part with any significant asset to get Ullmark from the Bruins.

Now to circle back to the question that’s sort of sandwiched by what New Jersey should do.  You make a good point in that there are few elite goalies in the league and of the three you suggested, I wouldn’t put Sergei Bobrovsky in that category.  (If you want a darkhorse candidate for who’s in net for New Jersey next year, it’s him in a cap dump from Florida if they can get him to waive his no-move clause.)  Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin are definitely in there and Juuse Saros has a chance to get into that group.  But in terms of elite, that’s about it.

Teams are beginning to embrace the platoon option more and more now which makes sense if they don’t have an elite or at least a higher-end starter.  It’s more cost-efficient and is a better hedge against in-season injuries.  New Jersey has tried to go that way the last couple of years and will likely stay on that path moving forward.

Johnny Z: NJ hinted at trading #2 OA. Do you think it could be offered for a player such as Fiala or Willie Nylander?

The speculation about New Jersey’s openness to move their first-round pick came before the Draft Lottery when their pick sat fifth and could drop as low as seventh.  Things have changed since then with them winning the second draw, giving them the second pick.  Now, they have a chance to get a core piece in the draft, either a winger like Juraj Slafkovsky or a defenseman like Simon Nemec or David Jiricek (assuming Montreal takes Shane Wright).  That jump of a few spots really changes the outlook.  If you can get a long-term core piece that should be NHL-ready fairly soon, they’re probably going to be better off keeping the pick.

For me, to even consider trading the pick, I’d want someone either signed or under team control for at least four years, someone that’s going to be part of their long-term core.  William Nylander has two years left on his contract and with how contentious his last contract talks went, there’s little reason to think he’d sign an early extension so there would be a risk to acquiring him in such a move.  It’s possible they could work out a long-term agreement with Kevin Fiala as part of a deal but if management thinks Slafkovsky can produce at a similar level, why not keep the pick and take him instead?

Never say never but there’s a reason teams very seldom trade top picks, let alone trading out of the draft entirely.  They’ll certainly listen to what’s out there but I’d be surprised if that trend changes with the Devils this summer.

2012 orioles: What are the most realistic destinations for Trotz?

Player free agency doesn’t happen for a couple more months but coaching free agency just got a whole lot more interesting when Lou Lamoriello made Barry Trotz available.  He’s probably going to wind up with a raise on the $4MM that he was getting with New York (and is still owed until he finds a new team) and plenty of job security in the form of a long-term deal.

In terms of who is a realistic fit for him, Vegas is the first team that comes to mind.  They’ve set the bar high and Trotz is a coach that has plenty of pedigree and a good playoff track record.  Both of those appeal to an organization like the Golden Knights.  And if the Golden Knights are worried about how things went down with Robin Lehner down the stretch, what better move could they make by bringing in his coach from his best NHL season (2018-19)?  He’s a splashy hire and would give them a boost while they have the willingness to spend big to get him.  I’d handicap them as the top contender as a result.

Flyers GM Chuck Fletcher believes the core of his team is still good enough to contend and will go into this offseason with an eye on a quick turnaround.  Trotz is the type of coach that could them back to the playoffs so they’ll be in the mix.  Detroit GM Steve Yzerman has talked about wanting more defensive structure so they’ll kick the tires as well although Jim Montgomery still feels like the best fit to me.  With Rick Bowness stepping down in Dallas, I’m sure they’ll also have interest although I’m not sure ownership will want to pay what it will cost to bring Trotz in.

The big wild card here is Winnipeg.  Trotz is a Winnipeg native and the chance to coach his hometown team has to be appealing.  They’re in a similar situation as Philadelphia in that they have a roster that underachieved but could plausibly get back in the hunt with the right coach.  Speculatively on my part, if Trotz has interest in being a GM down the road, could he sign on as coach for a few years and then potentially move into the front office with Kevin Cheveldayoff moving up to team president (assuming he’s still around by then)?  The Jets probably won’t be able to offer top dollar though.

Basically, every team with an opening is going to at least call.  It wouldn’t surprise me if a team or two that doesn’t have an opening quietly interviews Trotz anyway.  But right now, Vegas seems like the most realistic landing spot with Philadelphia and Winnipeg being in that next tier of options.

Y2KAK: When do the Maple Leafs win a first-round series? 2023? 2025? 2040?

Put me in the crew that thinks this core can still get there soon.  They played a solid series against Tampa Bay and the final game was basically a coin flip.  They didn’t get over the hump but this was far from choking away the series victories they could (and frankly, should) have had in the past.  As a result, I wouldn’t drastically shake things up this summer if I were the Leafs.

If that’s the course that GM Kyle Dubas pursues, then it’s quite possible they get over that hump next year.  Boston may take a step back depending on what happens with their captain, Florida’s roster won’t be as strong as it is now, and Tampa Bay is going to be squeezed by the cap as well.

Nothing is a guarantee and the questions are going to linger throughout the summer and into next season, as they should.  But I’m pretty confident that this core is going to get through a round if it stays together.  It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if that happened next season.

ckw: With the questionable coaching from Hynes and moves by Poile, where do you think the Preds go from here? Two forty-goal scorers, a record season by Josi and a Vezina-caliber goalie in Saros, and an arguable Calder trophy finalist they still could barely squeak into the playoffs.

A commonly-used phrase in sports is when a team is ‘spinning its wheels’.  That’s a sentiment that I think applies pretty well to Nashville.

First things first, I was quite impressed with their season as I didn’t think they’d come close to making the playoffs.  Even though they went out quickly, the fact they even got there surprised me with the moves they made over the summer.

But here’s the thing.  The Predators are good enough to hang around the edge of the playoff mix.  But how much more upside does their core group have?  It’s probably not much, certainly not enough to catapult them into contender status.  But they’re also not in a spot where they can really embrace a rebuild as some of their bigger contracts (Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen) aren’t easy to move.  If Filip Forsberg re-signs, he’ll be in that salary tier as well.

With the two-year extension given to Hynes, it’s a signal that they’re going to stay on this path for the time being.  So where do they go from here?  If Forsberg sticks around, they’re probably bringing a very similar team back to the one that finished this season unless they get the green light to spend closer to the cap ceiling which could allow them to add a player or two.  That will have them either just in the playoffs or just out which is basically where they’ve been the last three years.  They’re in that mushy middle and don’t appear to be changing course.  From a sports perspective, they’re spinning their wheels.

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Offseason Checklist: Chicago Blackhawks

at CDT | by 12 Comments

The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t playoff-bound plus some that were eliminated early in the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Chicago.

There were high hopes for the Blackhawks to start this season after a summer that saw them add a new top defender in Seth Jones, a new starting goalie in Marc-Andre Fleury, as well as some extra depth up front.  The hope was that these improvements would help get them back into the playoff picture after missing the postseason the year before.  It didn’t happen.  Instead, mired with off-ice controversy and on-ice struggles, things snowballed in the opposite direction and instead of building for the playoffs, GM Kyle Davidson has committed to going for a rebuild instead.  As a result, he has a busy summer ahead of him.

Coaching Decision

After Jeremy Colliton was let go after just a dozen games, Derek King was elevated from coaching with AHL Rockford to fill in on an interim basis for the rest of the season.  His record wasn’t stellar by any stretch (27-33-10) but the team was much more competitive under King despite having nothing to play for but pride for most of the season.

Davidson decided that he wants to undergo a full coaching search and one of the questions he’ll have to answer is the type of coach he’s looking for.  Is he looking for a long-term fixture to grow with the team or is it someone to take them through this transitional period?  If it’s the latter, someone like King – who will interview for the full-time job – becomes a legitimate candidate with how Chicago performed down the stretch.  A veteran coach doesn’t seem like a good fit for a rebuilding squad but Davidson has committed to a thorough search so there will undoubtedly be some veteran coaches considered over the coming weeks on top of some first-time options.

On top of hiring a head coach, Davidson and whoever he picks as his bench boss will need to fill a couple of vacancies on the bench after the team dismissed associate coach Marc Crawford and assistant coach Rob Cookson this summer.

Build A Goalie Tandem

In terms of Chicago’s on-ice personnel, there is a lot of work to be done this summer between the pipes.  Fleury was moved to Minnesota at the trade deadline while holdovers Kevin Lankinen and Collin Delia are both pending unrestricted free agents.  As it stands, the only goalie with professional experience that’s signed for next season is Arvid Soderblom.  Suffice it to say, they have some work to do.

After an impressive first NHL season, Lankinen struggled considerably this year with a save percentage of just .891.  A year ago, it looked like he could be a sought-after netminder in free agency but now, his market will have cooled considerably.  Still, a return to Chicago could be an option in a backup role.  Delia is someone that has been around the organization for a while (five years) but never has really emerged beyond being a good AHL netminder that can play a handful of NHL contests when needed.  With the Blackhawks wanting to give Soderblom and Jaxson Stauber lots of action with AHL Rockford, Delia seems likely to move on.

Davidson could try to go after a younger free agent goalie in Jack Campbell or Ville Husso with the hope that they’ll still be on the team when they’re ready to try to contend again but that seems like an unlikely scenario.  Instead, veterans on short-term contracts that give them some flexibility seems like the smarter way to go for them.  They’ll need a couple of them over the next few months.

Rebuild The Rest

There are few core players on Chicago that should be viewed as untouchable.  With them appearing to be eyeing a multi-year process, anyone that isn’t signed or under team control through that time could very well be expendable.

Blackhawks GM Kyle Davidson has a very busy offseason ahead of him.The biggest decisions that will need to be made in the short term involve winger Patrick Kane and center Jonathan Toews.  Both players have spent their entire careers (14 years for Toews, 15 for Kane) in Chicago and have been on identical contracts since 2010.  They’re set to enter the final year of their deals that carry a $10.5MM cap hit.  Are they a part of the future plans?  Davidson allowed for the possibility that they could stick around but will the veterans be willing to go through several more years of losing?  If not, then they will have to give serious consideration to trading their long-time pillars.  Are those moves easier to make now when moving salary is a bit easier or closer to the trade deadline when most of the cap hit has been covered already?  That, along with the possibility of extensions, will likely have to be jointly explored this summer.

Other veterans will likely be on the move as well to add future assets and try to free up some cap flexibility.  Blueliner Jake McCabe and Connor Murphy along with center Tyler Johnson are all potential options either this summer or at some point during the season.

RFA Decisions

Two younger veterans that could fit in the above category as well are Dominik Kubalik and Dylan Strome.  Both are restricted free agents this summer with qualifying offers ($4MM for Kubalik, $3.6MM for Strome) that are a bit high relative to their performance in recent years.  Kubalik had 30 goals in his rookie season but just 32 in the last two combined.  Strome, meanwhile, has been hit or miss since joining Chicago in 2018, at times looking like a capable top-six player and others where he struggled to the point of being a healthy scratch.

Not that long ago, both players were viewed as potential long-term fits for the Blackhawks but that isn’t the case now due to their inconsistency and somewhat recent struggles.  Kubalik was available at the trade deadline with minimal interest while Strome has been available off and on going back more than a year although his strong finish (36 points in his last 40 games) could help his chances of sticking around with a one-year, ‘prove it’ type of contract.

Can they keep both?  With their cap situation, can they afford to keep both?  They can opt for club-elected arbitration which carries a minimum salary of 85% of the qualifying offer but there’s no guarantee the arbitrator will agree with that valuation and there are no walkaway rights with club-elected arbitration.  Chicago can try to negotiate a lower-priced deal but there’s no requirement for Kubalik and Strome to agree to something like that.  Accordingly, don’t be surprised if both players are in the rumor mill in the coming weeks to see if there’s a trade return that could be palatable if Davidson doesn’t want to pay the cost to keep them.

DeBrincat Extension Talks

One player that Davidson will undoubtedly be willing to pay the cost to keep is winger Alex DeBrincat.  He signed a three-year bridge deal back in 2019 and has outperformed it, scoring 73 goals in just 134 games since then, including 41 this season.  With his contract coming before the CBA extension, he’s subject to the old qualifying offer rules which means his 2022-23 salary of $9MM represents his qualifying offer next summer.

The 24-year-old will be eligible for an extension once the new league year starts in mid-July. DeBrincat looks like a centerpiece of Chicago’s rebuilding process so locking him up as soon as possible is something that needs to be explored.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see discussions on a new agreement begin sooner than later as a result.  A deal doesn’t have to be done now but if something isn’t agreed on, he’ll enter next summer a year away from UFA eligibility which always carries some risk.  Expect Davidson to try to avoid that if he can.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Salary figures courtesy of CapFriendly.

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