PHR Mailbag: Bruins, Kings, Center Market, Wild, Red Wings, Islanders Transactions
Topics in this edition of the mailbag include fixing Boston’s cap situation, the future center market, when the Islanders might announce a move this summer, and more. If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.
case7187: What do you think the Bruins will do to get cap space?
Right now, probably nothing of consequence. They have time to work with as they can get through the first two months of the season simply using LTIR. A lot can change from a roster perspective in that time; does someone else get injured that could extend that LTIR safety net?
The reality is that moving out a contract is quite difficult right now and while it wouldn’t cost a first-round pick to offload the final year of Craig Smith’s deal or Nick Foligno’s, parting with future assets at a time when they might not be far from a rebuild of some degree is going to sting. They might be able to take a smaller contract back and save a bit of money that way but there’s a better approach than that and it’s the one that I think Boston (and a whole lot of teams) are going to use.
Rather than part with an asset to move Smith and take a smaller contract back, why not just waive Smith? Or Foligno? Or, when healthy, Mike Reilly, who’s another potential casualty? If you lose one of them for nothing, it’s still a better outcome than trading a future asset away to accomplish the same thing. If they clear, they’d free up $1.125MM in cap space each time. Do that two or three times and voila, problem solved. If they get to the playoffs, those players return to the roster when there’s no salary cap so there’s no need to go for a rental depth piece or two at the deadline.
To be clear, I’m not singling those players out as not being worthy of being claimed. Instead, I think there are going to be plenty of players in that price range ($3MM or so) that are dumped on waivers because teams know there’s little chance they’ll be claimed. Think back to a couple of years ago when we saw some veterans waived to bounce back and forth from the taxi squads in an effort to bank any sort of cap room. I expect that will be much more prevalent this coming season.
If there’s a reasonable opportunity to move a player out that doesn’t cost an asset of some significance, that’s obviously Plan A. But if it doesn’t happen, I think they play things out, see how far they can get with LTIR, and then waive their way into cap compliance with two or three players being waived, clearing, and getting sent down to Providence.
rpoabr: Do the Kings get both Anderson and Durzi signed or do they make a trade to alleviate the logjam?
I think there’s enough money for both to sign without a trade needing to be made. Let’s break down the current projection from CapFriendly that has the Kings only have around $1.5MM to spend on both players.
There are 15 forwards on that roster. At most, they’re carrying 14 and in all likelihood, probably 13. At a minimum, that frees up $750K with the likelier outcome being closer to $1.6MM in extra space. Now they’re at $3MM or so to spend which is a lot better.
Defensively, there are seven signed players on there once you factor in the ones showing as injured. Again, at least one has to go and the easiest solution is probably Jordan Spence even though it’s not the fairest solution. It could be Jacob Moverare but Spence is waiver-exempt and Moverare isn’t. Those things matter at the beginning of the season. At a minimum, that’s another $762.5K off the roster, bringing the actual cap space closer to $3.8MM.
That should be more than enough to get both players signed on short-term bridge deals. It’s doubtful either one gets more than two years so it’s not a long-term fix but it’s enough to get contracts done without compromising any of their depth. Players in these situations don’t have any leverage outside of holding out and hoping for a better offer so even with that cap space in mind, it might take a few more weeks at least for one or both of them to sign.
baji kimran: Do you seen any real good (maybe even elite) centers coming available in the next year or two?
On the trade front, the first one that comes to mind is Winnipeg’s Pierre-Luc Dubois. It sure seems like he has no intention of signing with the Jets on a long-term basis which will either have him traded in the next year or so to a team where he will sign or take another one-year deal next summer to hit the open market in 2024. He’s not elite but as a fairly young player that can play on the second line, I’d say that would qualify.
Looking ahead to next summer’s free agent class, it’s actually pretty good as things stand. Nathan MacKinnon would command a king’s ransom if he was to somehow make it there and definitely is in the elite category. Dylan Larkin and Bo Horvat are also up at that time and are very good fits for plenty of teams. Ryan O’Reilly is a capable veteran and Jonathan Toews will be up as well. In 2024, the list currently consists of Auston Matthews, Sam Reinhart, Sebastian Aho, Elias Lindholm, Mark Scheifele, and Anze Kopitar, among others. That’s a pretty good group as well.
Obviously, not all of those players are going to actually become available. Most probably won’t. But with a flat salary cap, some of them are probably going to make it there or at least become available in a sign-and-trade proposition. For teams hoping to add an impact middleman over the next couple of years, there’s a bit of cause for optimism as a result.
Zakis: What free agent forward will the Wild sign? Or will they try and trade from the D depth to acquire a more impactful F?
I’m going to tackle these out of order. I don’t see Minnesota moving their defensive depth to acquire a more impactful forward simply because there isn’t one that they’d be willing to move that would bring in a forward of significance. I think they’d move Dmitry Kulikov but there aren’t teams lining up to trade a good forward for him. Jon Merrill’s value has been limited in the past as well so he wouldn’t bring back a big return either.
When I first saw this question, Phil Kessel was the player that came to mind in free agency. He’s someone that would probably play on the third line at five-on-five but he’d help the power play and in a more offensive environment, he’d probably give them a good return on a $2MM or so investment, which would ensure that they have ample cap space for midseason activity as well. I think Paul Stastny would be a good fit as well with their center depth not being the strongest and Sonny Milano in that system would be intriguing from an upside standpoint. If they sign a free agent, I could see it being one of those three.
There’s another option in between these and that’s taking on a contract with another asset for future considerations. There are several teams that need to make a cost-cutting move and several more that might not have to but want to. That might be a more desirable approach for them to take to add a middle-six forward plus a draft pick or prospect. GM Bill Guerin would have plenty of options to ponder if he was open to going that route and it wouldn’t surprise me if that’s the path he ultimately takes.
Johnny Z: When does Stevie pull the trigger on that blockbuster trade? He has two big guns in Larkin and Bert that have not been extended as of yet, an under-performing Zadina, and some depth D to bargain with.
I’ve had similar questions in recent mailbags so I won’t go through the whole answer again but I keep coming back to the fact that teams rarely go from also-rans to contenders right away. How will their core perform under the pressure of important games night after night in the playoff hunt and the playoffs themselves? The problem with answering that is another question in itself; when was the last time Detroit’s core played in a bunch of meaningful games? It has been so long that GM Steve Yzerman simply doesn’t know how that’s going to go.
When you bring up that blockbuster trade, I think of that move being the one that will vault them into contention. They know what that missing piece is and they go and get it. But I’d argue that they don’t know what that missing piece is yet. They can hope that everyone will perform to expectations but that’s all it is, hope. They need to see this group go through some legitimate pressure points which will tell them when the time is right to make that move. It’s not this coming season and I’m not convinced it’s the year after either as what happens with Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi (both 2023 UFAs) could impact their contention timeline.
Teams should be making that blockbuster move to bring in that missing piece of the puzzle. Detroit isn’t particularly close to that point and making it too early could present more problems down the road.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Anaheim Ducks
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Anaheim Ducks
Current Cap Hit: $63,657,667 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
D Jamie Drysdale (one year, $925K)
F Mason McTavish (three years, $894K)
F Trevor Zegras (one year, $925K)
Potential Bonuses:
Drysdale: $850K
McTavish: $2.5MM
Zegras: $850K
Total: $4.2MM
Simply put, these three are the centerpieces of Anaheim’s rebuild. Zegras played his first full NHL season in 2021-22 and finished second on the team in scoring, establishing himself as their top center in the process. An early extension is always possible but with only 99 career games under his belt, GM Pat Verbeek might want to wait on that. His next contract seems likely to check in around the $8MM range on a long-term deal, similar to the ones that Nick Suzuki and Josh Norris have signed recently. Worth noting, he will still have five years of team control after next season. As for McTavish, he didn’t look out of place in his limited NHL stint last year and his showing at the World Juniors shows that he’s ready for a full-time role in 2022-23. It’s obviously too early to forecast his next deal but they’re hoping he does well enough to be in that $8MM range as well.
Drysdale had some struggles in his own end last season but that’s hardly uncommon for a 19-year-old and overall, he had a solid first full NHL campaign. While it might seem that he should get a bigger role this season, that’s far from a guarantee with the veterans that will be ahead of him. That makes his next contract a bit tricky. Anaheim will certainly want to extend him on a max-term deal but it might be in Drysdale’s best interest to look for a two or three-year bridge deal; he also will have five years of team control remaining. He’d get more of a chance to play top minutes in 2023-24 so locking in long-term before getting that opportunity would carry some risk from an earnings standpoint.
Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level
D Simon Benoit ($750K, RFA)
F Max Comtois ($2.037MM, RFA)
F Derek Grant ($1.5MM, UFA)
D John Klingberg ($7MM, UFA)
D Josh Mahura ($750K, RFA)
D John Moore ($2.75MM, UFA)
D Kevin Shattenkirk ($3.9MM, UFA)
G Anthony Stolarz ($950K, UFA)
F Troy Terry ($1.45MM, RFA)
Bridge contracts are often overlooked as they’re often by-products of a salary cap situation. That isn’t the case in Anaheim as the ones they signed were simply decisions to see how a player continues to perform before needing a big commitment. They’ll certainly be needing that big commitment for Terry as he had a breakout showing in 2021-22, scoring 37 goals and 67 points. For context, he had 15 goals in 128 contests heading into the season. A repeat performance would push Terry well past the $6MM mark on a long-term deal which is basically four times what his qualifying offer would be next summer. Anaheim will enjoy another season at a bargain price tag and will be paying up soon after.
At the opposite end of the spectrum is Comtois. He received a bridge deal even after leading the Ducks in scoring in 2020-21 and the first year of it didn’t go well. He struggled with his production and consistency which resulted in him dropping down the depth chart and even being scratched at times. Still just 23, they’re certainly not giving up on him but his contract is back-loaded which results in a $2.55MM qualifier next summer. A repeat showing next season will make the decision regarding his future a little trickier. As for Grant, he’s coming off a career year with 29 points and played like a capable third center. That’s a good return for that price point and if Anaheim is out of the playoff picture in February, he’ll be a strong candidate to move as a rental at the trade deadline.
The addition of Klingberg this summer certainly raised some eyebrows. His presence on the roster will make it a little harder for Drysdale to play an elevated role in the lineup but at the same time, the veteran is in a good spot to be productive and show that he’s worthy of the long-term commitment he was seeking this summer. Even so, that long-term contract will likely check in at a lower price tag than this one unless he really has a standout performance. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see him move at the trade deadline either. The same can be said for Shattenkirk who has re-established himself as a top-three defender with the Ducks but might be in tough to put up the type of offensive numbers that he’s accustomed to with Klingberg now in the fold which could hurt his market in free agency next summer. Moore was a cap casualty they had to take on in the Hampus Lindholm trade last season and he’ll be looking at a deal at or near the minimum next season while Benoit and Mahura will need to become full-time regulars if they want to make more than the minimum in 2023-24 as well.
Stolarz did well in his first full NHL season as a backup, posting an impressive .917 SV% in 28 appearances. With the way that backups have seen their price tags go up in recent years, if he’s able to play at a similar level next season, he could push for upwards of three times his current deal. Even if he takes a step back, double his current price could still be doable.
Signed Through 2023-24
F Sam Carrick ($850K, UFA)
F Adam Henrique ($5.825MM, UFA)
F Max Jones ($1.295MM, RFA)
F Isac Lundestrom ($1.8MM, RFA)
F Jakob Silfverberg ($5.25MM, UFA)
D Urho Vaakanainen ($850K, RFA)
Henrique had a rough 2020-21 season to the point where he cleared waivers but he was much better last season with 42 points in 58 games while winning over 55% of his faceoffs. That’s not a great return on his price tag but those are second-line numbers which is a better outcome than seemed possible just a season ago. He won’t be able to command that type of money two years from now though. The same can be said for Silfverberg, who’s coming off an injury-riddled year that saw him score just five times in 53 games. While he was a top-six winger at the time his deal was signed, he isn’t now. Carrick very quietly put up decent numbers in a depth role last season with 11 goals in 69 games after having just four in parts of five seasons before that. His contract is cheap enough to give Anaheim good value if he’s on the fourth line while if young players push their way into his spot, it can be buried in the minors.
As for the younger forwards in this group, Lundestrom did well in his first full NHL season, picking up 29 points and playing a big role shorthanded. Still just 22, he’s more of an unheralded part of their future plans and should be more of a bottom-six player moving forward but this was still a promising season. The bridge deal makes sense and if he can produce at a similar rate these next two years, his AAV could jump into the $3MM range. It’s safe to call the first year of Jones’ bridge contract a write-off as a pectoral injury limited him to just two appearances last season. If he can return as a capable bottom-six winger, there’s room for his price tag to go up a couple of years from now.
Vaakanainen was part of the Lindholm trade as well and while he hasn’t played up to the level of a first-round pick as he was in 2017, he showed some signs of progressing into a regular NHL defender. This contract has a chance to be a bit of a bargain as a result but with limited offensive upside, he’s not going to be someone to command big money down the road. Doubling his current AAV could be achievable if he can hold down a regular spot.
Signed Through 2024-25
F Frank Vatrano ($3.65MM, UFA)
Vatrano has largely gone under the radar but he very quietly has scored at least 16 goals in each of the last four seasons and is coming off his second straight 18-goal campaign which wasn’t bad considering he played just over 13 minutes a night. That type of money for someone whose role is that limited is a bit on the high side but he has been able to produce with some consistency with less ice time than players that hover around 20 goals typically get. That made for a pretty strong market for him last month which yielded this contract.
Free Agent Profile: Alex Chiasson
A veteran of 631 NHL games spread over parts of 10 seasons, free agent forward Alex Chiasson once again finds himself in familiar territory: approaching training camp without a contract, after another solid NHL season. The veteran has signed three PTO’s thus far in his career, each of them resulting in an NHL contract, and all signs point to this offseason not being much of a change of pace. Chiasson spent last season as a member of the Vancouver Canucks, his first with the team, where he scored 13 goals to go with nine assists over 67 games, The winger’s 2021-22 doesn’t exactly match him up alongside the games greats, but it did represent another season of solid bottom-six play for a physical, two-way player, something he has brought to every team in his career thus far.
A second-round pick of the Dallas Stars in 2009, Chiasson was a highly-regarded prospect when he spent three years at Boston University prior to turning pro at the end of 2011-12. The younger Chiasson wouldn’t wait too long to make his NHL debut either, dressing in seven games for Dallas during the 2012-13 season, registering an impressive six goals in the short sample. Since debuting with the Stars, Chiasson has played for six different franchises, including Dallas, the Ottawa Senators, Calgary Flames, Washington Capitals, Edmonton Oilers and most recently Vancouver.
Despite the transition from team to team, Chiasson has made a name for himself as a reliable role-player everywhere he has gone, bringing a physical element while also chipping in on the penalty kill, and even contributing somewhere between 10 and 15 goals per season. Perhaps his most impressive season came not too long ago, when he scored a career-high 22 goals along with 16 assists for 38 points over 73 games as a member of the Edmonton Oilers in 2018-19. Turning 32 years of age just prior to opening night, it’s unlikely to expect Chiasson to take any step further with his game or even repeat the success he saw back in Edmonton, but he has been a model of consistency and hard work, two valuable assets to just about any team in the league. He’s likely headed for yet another PTO, but the chances of seeing him back in the NHL for the 2022-23 season still seem high given his track record.
Stats:
2021-22: 67 GP, 13-9-22, +4 rating, 24 PIMs, 98 shots, 56.3 CF%, 11:37 ATOI
Career: 631 GP, 114-110-224, -36 rating, 353 PIMs, 896 shots 52.6 CF%, 13:37 ATOI
Potential Suitors:
For his career, Chiasson seems to have a habit of latching on with relatively good teams, perhaps due to luck, but perhaps not. This past season saw the veteran’s Vancouver team struggle early, but make a tremendous push for a playoff position, just barely missing out. In the two seasons prior, his Edmonton Oilers made the playoffs, missing with 79 points in 2018-19, his career-year. Arguably the highlight of his career though was a Stanley Cup championship with the Washington Capitals in 2017-18. One would think, whether it’s a happy trend, Chiasson’s personal choice and analysis, or something in particular that he himself brings to the table, that whatever team he winds up with will at least be a strong contender for a playoff position.
But, over a month into free agency and not a star talent, at 32 years of age, what contender is in a position to sign Chiasson? The overwhelming majority of competitive teams not only have their rosters in place, but are so close, if not over the salary cap ceiling that even a league-minimum one-way contract would be impossible to fit in.
Two plausible options that come to mind would be the New York Islanders and Minnesota Wild. Although all the winger slots seem to be filled on Long Island, the team that has struggled to score goals could stand to add a dozen or so more as a depth option, and Chiasson’s style of play is in keeping with the preferences of Islanders’ GM Lou Lamoriello. Minnesota on the other hand is known to be looking to add another forward and while Chiasson of course doesn’t replace star winger Kevin Fiala, adding some punch to Minnesota’s bottom-six, especially after the departure of Nicolas Deslauriers, would make sense.
Another option for the Quebec native could be to head overseas. He had been connected to opportunities over in Switzerland back in late May, however his agent, Pat Morris, was sure to clarify that his client was looking for NHL opportunities, and was especially hoping for an opportunity to stay in Vancouver. But, Canucks GM Jim Rutherford indicated that they would not be making a decision on Chiasson until after their free agency wrapped up. Now that things are mostly quiet on the free agency front, especially with Vancouver, a return for Chiasson doesn’t look too good. However, not many PTO’s have been signed, and if that is indeed the route for the forward, then one might see his opportunities still upcoming.
Projected Contract:
Considering his track record both with on-ice production and previous deals, as well as where the offseason currently stands, Chiasson is almost certainly headed for another PTO. This option may be concerning for some players, and it may not be the most enjoyable position for Chiasson either, but he’s been here before and earned his keep when he has. Chiasson managed to sign an NHL contract after all three of those PTO’s, and what’s more is after the first, he went on to win a Stanley Cup, after his second, he was rewarded with a two-year, $4.3MM deal, and after his most recent, he found a place he appeared to feel very good about returning to in that of Vancouver
Whether he signs a PTO, then a contract, or receives a contract outright, it wouldn’t appear Chiasson will make any more than the league-minimum $750K salary for 2022-23 either. Not a perfect scenario, and far from the career-high $2.15MM salary he had with Edmonton from 2019-2021, an NHL contract would give Chiasson another year in the league and another chance at an early-in-free-agency deal like he signed with the Oilers in 2019.
Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag
As most of the hockey world takes a vacation, the World Juniors in Edmonton are providing a nice change of pace for fans looking to get a glimpse of their future stars. Anaheim Ducks forward Mason McTavish leads the tournament with six goals and ten points, sometimes looking like he is six or seven years older than the rest of his competition, while Luke Hughes continues to dominate as the tournament’s best defenseman. With the tournament coming to a close in just a few days, we’ll soon have to turn our attention back to the coming season.
With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag.
Last time, the mailbag was broken into two parts. The first examined the risky situation in Toronto’s crease, Pierre-Luc Dubois‘ future in Winnipeg, and P.K. Subban‘s continued free agency. The second focused on some offer sheet candidates, the front office in Philadelphia, and some often-discussed trade targets.
You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.
Free Agent Profile: Victor Rask
Considering their recent rise to relevancy, it seems like forever ago that the Minnesota Wild acquired center Victor Rask in a one-for-one deal with the Carolina Hurricanes in exchange for Nino Niederreiter. The since-lopsided trade finally met a sort of resolution this year when, after clearing waivers, Rask and the final year of his contract were dealt to the Seattle Kraken for future considerations.
It also seems like forever ago when Rask had a breakout season at the perfect time. In the last season of his entry-level contract, 2015-16, Rask had a 21-goal, 48-point season, setting career highs in both marks. It prompted then-general manager Ron Francis, who hilariously enough re-acquired Rask as the GM of the Kraken, to give the Swedish forward a six-year, $24MM contract. He maintained solid middle-six production until 2018-19 when Carolina traded him to Minnesota after amassing just a goal and six points in 26 games.
In Minnesota, Rask’s production never recovered. As the team got better (and more expensive), Rask was frequently healthy scratched, and then waived this season, reporting to the AHL’s Iowa Wild where he scored 10 points in 10 games. Seattle kept him in the NHL down the stretch, where he did just fine with eight points in 18 games.
Over the past two seasons, though, Rask has been solid defensively, though Minnesota’s system could carry the weight of that. He carried the bad reputation that comes with being overpaid into free agency, which certainly hasn’t worked in his favor, but the 29-year-old could still have the defensive acumen (and shot) to be an NHL forward. He’s had a shooting percentage of at least 13% over the past three seasons.
Stats
2021-22: 47 GP, 9-12-21, +4 rating, 2 PIMs, 58 shots, 53.3 CF%, 50.6 FO%, 12:12 ATOI
Career: 506 GP, 89-134-223, -22 rating, 86 PIMs, 848 shots, 51.4 CF%, 50.1 FO%, 14:58 ATOI
Potential Suitors
Rask is an ideal fourth-line center for teams looking to solidify their bottom sixes. He carries some scoring upside and serious defensive upside, and he can be used on the power play in a pinch. Teams without young players ready to take bottom-six spots, or teams looking for some utility help in a limited role, would be wise to make an offer to Rask to continue his NHL career.
Everyone seems to be waiting on the Winnipeg Jets to do at least something with their cap space, namely improving and adding depth to their bottom six filled with question marks and experience. Rask would be a solid upgrade over Dominic Toninato in the fourth-line center role, as Rask’s 21 points in just 47 games this year nearly match Toninato’s career total of 29 in 164 games. He’s got more special teams acumen than Toninato as well, making him a more attractive lineup option for coaches.
If Rask wants a bigger role, the obvious bottom two teams in the league next season still need NHL players. The Chicago Blackhawks especially don’t have many young forwards that can step in next season, and Rask could potentially find himself back in a top-nine role if he heads to the Windy City.
Projected Contract
Rask certainly won’t receive anything more than a $1MM, one-year contract, especially at this point in the offseason, but he could likely at least secure a one-way deal greater than the league minimum. The teams with a spot left for him likely wouldn’t have any trouble accommodating that.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Profile: Danny DeKeyser
The lack of movement on the salary cap in recent seasons has caused specific contracts to look worse than they otherwise would have. That especially holds true for players who signed mid-tier, long-term deals in the mid-2010s who haven’t quite been able to hold up their previous standard of play.
Longtime Detroit Red Wings defenseman Danny DeKeyser fits that bill perfectly, although we can’t discount the role injuries have played in his decline. An undrafted free agent signing out of Western Michigan University, DeKeyser was quietly an important part of Detroit’s post-Nicklas Lidstrom transformation on defense. During his first full NHL season in 2013-14, DeKeyser stayed in the NHL full-time, amassing 23 points in 65 games and averaging over 21 minutes per game, good enough for a handful of Calder Trophy votes.
After signing a six-year, $30MM contract following an arbitration filing in the summer of 2016, however, DeKeyser’s play (and contract value) began to diminish almost immediately. He did play a full 82 games during the first season of the contract, but after 2016-17, DeKeyser never played more than 65 games in a season. After injuries limited him to just eight games in 2019-20, DeKeyser’s ice time dipped to bottom-pairing minutes for the contract’s last two seasons.
Veteran defenseman will always carry value to NHL teams, though. While Detroit is looking to hand the keys over to a young defense core of Moritz Seider, Filip Hronek, and Simon Edvinsson, another team may still see a use for DeKeyser as an extra body or a bottom-pairing man. Injuries will always be a factor, though, and retirement remains on the table for the Detroit native.
Stats
2021-22: 59 GP, 0-11-11, -8 rating, 26 PIMs, 57 shots, 44.0 CF%, 102 blocks, 18:30 ATOI
Career: 547 GP, 33-113-146, +4 rating, 266 PIMs, 581 shots, 48.2 CF%, 910 blocks, 20:46 ATOI
Potential Suitors
At this point in the offseason, all the big fish have settled (especially on defense) and teams are mostly set for the upcoming season. Depth adds and AHL bodies can make or break a team’s season in some circumstances, though, and acquiring DeKeyser in that role at least gives teams a “we know what you are” option. The best balance for a team looking to acquire DeKeyser is likely as an insurance policy for a spot penciled for a younger, more inexperienced defenseman who has a high degree of uncertainty in their development.
If DeKeyser wants to stay in the Eastern Conference, the New York Rangers have an obvious need for this role. Their third-pairing spot at left defense is a battle between Libor Hajek and Zac Jones, both players who either have limited (or poor) NHL results so far. Signing DeKeyser doesn’t preclude either from playing NHL minutes if it’s what’s best for the team and their development, but it gives the Rangers an insurance policy that they currently don’t have. With Jarred Tinordi being the only other left defenseman under contract in the organization with NHL experience, DeKeyser fills a hole on the team’s depth chart.
Similarly, the Islanders are missing their resident old-man defender after letting both Andy Greene and Zdeno Chara go this offseason. While Robin Salo and (the other) Sebastian Aho do carry some promise for third-pairing roles this season alongside Scott Mayfield, DeKeyser gives that veteran insurance policy, something the Islanders undoubtedly value highly after last season’s catastrophes.
Projected Contract
With DeKeyser’s declining play and sky-high injury risk, anything above a league-minimum contract is likely unattainable. A professional tryout contract if he does opt to continue his playing career might be a more realistic option at this stage.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Profile: Tyler Ennis
It’s not often that we see someone bring their career almost entirely back from the dead, but that’s exactly what happened just a handful of seasons ago with Tyler Ennis. Now entering his potential 14th NHL season at age 33, though, Ennis remains without a contract for next season.
Ennis failed to record more than 10 goals or 25 points in three straight seasons from 2016 to 2018, largely due in part to injuries but also declining play. It led the Minnesota Wild to buy out the final season of a five-year, $4.6MM AAV contract (originally signed with Buffalo) after just one season with the team. A 12-goal campaign with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2018-19 despite virtually no ice time raised some eyebrows, and, in 2019-20, Ennis was back on the map with a 37-point campaign split between the Ottawa Senators and Edmonton Oilers.
2020-21 was a rough one for Ennis, though, as it looked like the resurgence had run out for the veteran forward. Opting to stay with Edmonton after the previous year’s trade, Ennis appeared in just 30 games and was limited to nine points, often being a healthy scratch. Returning to Ottawa for the 2021-22 campaign restored some of that production, though, looking much closer to being an everyday bottom-six player. For teams looking for a skill option on the wings, Ennis presents an inexpensive gamble with a 20-to-30 point upside.
Stats
2021-22: 57 GP, 8-16-24, -6 rating, 16 PIMs, 89 shots, 48.8% CF, 12:33 ATOI
Career: 700 GP, 144-202-346, -84 rating, 224 PIMs, 1446 shots, 46.3 CF%, 15:10 ATOI
Potential Suitors
If you ask Ennis, he’s almost surely looking for a chance to win after a 700-game NHL career has yielded no playoff success outside of the first round. But Ennis isn’t in the top tier of veteran free agents looking to land deals (think Paul Stastny, Phil Kessel, Evan Rodrigues). With so many teams uncomfortably close to or over the salary cap, Ennis might not have many offers from the best of the best.
Unless you’re talking about the defending Stanley Cup champions. If the Colorado Avalanche can’t manage to re-sign Nazem Kadri, they have ample cap space to add a couple of remaining free agents, especially at a league minimum cost. With a depleted bottom-six group, Ennis could be an improvement on expected fringe players like Mikhail Maltsev, Anton Blidh, and Jayson Megna.
And while they may not be the best of the best right now, a return to the State of Hockey could also be in the cards for Ennis. The Minnesota Wild are still looking for some extra roster depth, allowing youngsters like Adam Beckman to have a big role in the AHL rather than sitting around as a healthy scratch. Ennis likely provides more offensive upside than someone like Connor Dewar or Brandon Duhaime, and if things really don’t pan out, he’d be a valuable veteran addition to the AHL’s Iowa Wild.
Projected Contract
You’d be hard-pressed to find a team willing to give Ennis much more than the league-minimum $750K on a one-way deal. He is coming off a one-year contract that paid him $900K, but as his offensive upside continues to get less likely with age, a raise for Ennis likely isn’t in the cards.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Profile: Sam Steel
The flattened trajectory of the Upper Limit in the NHL in recent years has resulted in teams increasingly opting to non-tender players to avoid the risk of a salary arbitration award coming in higher than what they were willing to pay or could afford. Some of those players signed quickly while others remained unsigned exactly one month into the opening of the market.
Sam Steel fits in the latter of the categories in an outcome that few could have predicted just a couple of years ago. A first-round pick back in 2016 (30th overall), Steel was quite impressive in the minors in his rookie campaign in 2018-19, earning himself a 22-game stint with Anaheim. He did quite well with the Ducks, recording 11 points while seemingly entrenching himself as a staple of their future center plans.
Unfortunately for both him and Anaheim, things have largely gone downhill for Steel since then. While he has played exclusively in the NHL since then, he hasn’t come close to producing at the per-game levels of his first professional campaign. As a result, his playing time and role diminished over the last couple of seasons to the point where he was a healthy scratch a handful of times last season.
Still, young centers are hard to come by and often get extra looks with the organization that drafted them. But Anaheim wasn’t worried about being able to afford his cap hit; they simply wanted to part ways with the 24-year-old. The perceived upside from a few years ago and the fact he plays a premium position makes Steel one of the more intriguing players still available on the open market.
Stats
2021-22: 68 GP, 6-14-20, -17 rating, 16 PIMS, 66 shots, 46.0 CF%, 49.3 FO%, 12:19 ATOI
Career: 197 GP, 24-41-65, -35 rating, 52 PIMS, 226 shots, 47.5 CF%, 50.5 FO%, 14:09 ATOI
Potential Suitors
While some veteran players are likely hoping to catch on with a team with a chance of a long playoff run, Steel should be looking in the complete opposite direction. A squad that will give him a chance at earning a 13th or 14th spot on the roster is an opportunity for another season of NHL money but then what? Another year with limited minutes and production doesn’t bode well for him for the 2023 offseason. For Steel, finding a landing spot with a team that will give him a chance at seeing somewhat regular playing time is crucial. That could have him gravitating towards a rebuilding team over a veteran-laden squad with postseason expectations.
In the East, Ottawa is one team that might be a happy medium in terms of playoff hopes with a shot at playing time. The Sens have cycled through depth centers in recent years and have some younger players that have mostly been minor leaguers to this point that are going to push for playing time plus Dylan Gambrell who was on the fringes when it came to playing time a year ago. Steel could potentially supplant one of those players and see somewhat regular minutes on a team that should make a postseason push. The Hurricanes lost both Vincent Trocheck and Derek Stepan this summer. Stepan’s spot, in particular, could be a spot for Steel. If Montreal clears out some of its forward surplus in the coming weeks, they could wind up being a bit thin down the middle, creating an opportunity there as well.
Out West, Arizona has several young centers already but two of them – Jack McBain and Nathan Smith – haven’t played in the AHL yet. If the Coyotes prefer to give one of them top minutes in the minors, that could create a spot for him on a team that could justify playing him heavy minutes in a rebuilding year. The Jets need to add some forwards to fill out their roster and no established centers have been added yet to replace Andrew Copp (moved at the trade deadline) and Paul Stastny (currently a UFA). If Minnesota would prefer Marco Rossi to get more time in the minors, a spot on the middle of their fourth line might be a fit as well.
As a player that will likely have a limited role to start wherever he winds up, Steel might be better off waiting until partway through training camp to sign when preseason injuries could open up playing time opportunities that aren’t presently there although that approach certainly carries some risk.
Projected Contract
At this point, with the year that Steel had and the fact he remains unsigned at this point, it’s hard to imagine him receiving more than the league minimum. He has two years of team control remaining through arbitration but, again, that can work against players that are lower on the depth chart. If a team wanted a two-year commitment to avoid that arbitration risk next summer, Steel might be able to get a bit more than the minimum but otherwise, he’s likely to sign for $750K wherever he winds up in the coming weeks.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Poll: Which Team Has Improved The Most This Offseason?
It may not seem like it but we’re now less than two months away from the start of the 2022-23 NHL season. For the most part, teams have finished their remodeling and now have in place the roster that will start the year.
There are still some restricted free agents to sign, and Nazem Kadri is still without an officially filed contract, but the rest of the available players aren’t really difference-makers.
So now, with training camp a few weeks away (and players already starting to skate in groups) we can start grading offseasons. Who improved the most? Who missed the mark? Who will take a step back?
For many people, the Ottawa Senators have been the biggest beneficiaries this offseason. General manager Pierre Dorion clearly feels as though his group is ready to start contending for the playoffs, and made several moves to get them even closer. Alex DeBrincat, Claude Giroux, and Cam Talbot are now Senators, giving the team a veteran goaltender, a former MVP candidate, and an in-his-prime 40-goal scorer all in one summer.
But they aren’t the only club that improved.
The Seattle Kraken, for all of their detractors, added several interesting pieces. Andre Burakovsky, Oliver Bjorkstrand, and Justin Schultz have arrived, not to mention the drafting of Shane Wright. While Matty Beniers isn’t exactly an offseason acquisition, having him in the lineup every night will certainly push them forward as well.
Then there is the Columbus Blue Jackets, who landed the summer’s top free agent in Johnny Gaudreau. The recently-extended Patrik Laine has to be itching to get on the ice with one of the league’s best playmakers.
The Detroit Red Wings added big pieces in free agency, the Anaheim Ducks brought in pieces like Ryan Strome, John Klingberg, and Frank Vatrano, and the New Jersey Devils nabbed some Stanley Cup experience.
So who improved the most? Cast your vote below and explain your thinking process in the comments!
Which team improved the most this offseason?
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Ottawa Senators 32% (600)
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Detroit Red Wings 18% (330)
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Columbus Blue Jackets 6% (107)
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Seattle Kraken 5% (86)
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Edmonton Oilers 4% (66)
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Calgary Flames 3% (51)
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Boston Bruins 2% (46)
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New Jersey Devils 2% (45)
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Los Angeles Kings 2% (42)
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Buffalo Sabres 2% (41)
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New York Rangers 2% (41)
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Anaheim Ducks 2% (39)
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Carolina Hurricanes 2% (38)
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Montreal Canadiens 2% (35)
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Pittsburgh Penguins 2% (33)
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Florida Panthers 2% (32)
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Vancouver Canucks 2% (30)
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Washington Capitals 2% (30)
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Chicago Blackhawks 1% (28)
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New York Islanders 1% (21)
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Toronto Maple Leafs 1% (21)
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Philadelphia Flyers 1% (19)
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Minnesota Wild 1% (14)
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Colorado Avalanche 1% (13)
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St. Louis Blues 1% (12)
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Winnipeg Jets 1% (10)
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Nashville Predators 0% (9)
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Dallas Stars 0% (8)
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Arizona Coyotes 0% (7)
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San Jose Sharks 0% (7)
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Tampa Bay Lightning 0% (7)
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Vegas Golden Knights 0% (6)
Total votes: 1,874
Free Agent Profile: Jonathan Dahlen
When the list of pending RFAs who were not being tendered a qualifying offer came out shortly after the deadline for teams to make the offer passed, plenty of interesting names headlined the list, such as Sonny Milano, Haydn Fleury, Brendan Lemieux, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Dominik Kubalik, and Dylan Strome, just to name a few. Some of those players went on to sign relatively strong free agent contracts with other teams, Strome being the prime example; some returned to their teams at a cost more palatable to the organization, like Lemieux who signed for $1.35MM over one year, less than the $1.65MM qualifying offer he was due; and some players have yet to find a home.
One of those players yet to find a home is forward Jonathan Dahlen, who was non-tendered by the San Jose Sharks. While there are some non-tendered players for whom it be clear why they haven’t found a home for 2021-22, with Dahlen, it may be a bit puzzling. At 24, Dahlen just wrapped up his rookie season in the NHL, where he scored 12 goals to go with 10 assists in 61 NHL contests. Dahlen’s rookie season wasn’t the most impressive in history, or even this season, however it did represent a capable and overall solid season from a player who has taken some time to develop and adjust to the North American game.
A second-round pick of the Ottawa Senators in 2016, Dahlen was traded twice before he ever had the chance to make his NHL debut. Less than a year after he was drafted, Ottawa moved him to the Vancouver Canucks in the deal that sent Alexandre Burrows to the Senators. Almost two years to the day later, Vancouver dealt him to San Jose for Linus Karlsson. Prior to his North American debut, Dahlen established himself as a reliable scoring threat in Sweden, with 29 points in 51 games as an 18-year-old for Timra in Sweden’s second-highest league in his draft year. The forward broke out and built on his performance with 44 points in 45 games and 44 points in 44 games over each of the next two seasons.
With the Swedish success bolstering his development, Dahlen came to North America, playing his first full season in 2018-19, where he had 33 points in 57 games split between the Utica Comets and San Jose Barracuda in the AHL. Although it was far from a poor performance, it wasn’t the step forward imagined for Dahlen, who would return to Sweden and Timra for another season. Here, Dahlen became a star, putting up a whopping 36 goals and 41 assists in a mere 51 games, following that up with 25 goals and 46 assists in 45 games the year after.
Powered by his stardom with Timra, Dahlen returned to North America for the 2021-22 season and much like his first go of it, it was good, but it just wasn’t the next step of repeating the Swedish performance over here. His 22 points ranked him 11th among all NHL rookies, his average time-on-ice also ranking 11th among rookies who had at least 40 games played. More concerning, however, was a -25 rating which was lower than his entire point total and came with a relatively good 52.0 CF%, all of which put together raises some concerns about Dahlen’s game. Considering the flat-out elite performances he’s had in Sweden, it’s easy to understand why Dahlen’s NHL debut was underwhelming, if not disappointing. But, that said, if he is in fact interested in staying in the NHL, it’s interesting to see that he remains unsigned roughly a month after he hit the market.
Stats:
2021-22/Career: 61 GP, 12 G, 10 A, 22 pts, -25 rating, 12 PIMs, 105 shots, 52.0 CF%, 13:48 ATOI
Potential Suitors:
Given some of Dahlen’s struggles, most highlighted by the -25 rating, many teams could be wary about giving opportunities to a player that may struggle this much in his own zone, as compared to the offense he does bring. On the other hand, for some teams that risk may be worth taking if they view Dahlen’s 22 points as something that is less than his capability in the NHL and something that their organization can help to grow.
Regardless of whether a team can develop his game or not, Dahlen could be a target for an older team with less payroll flexibility that’s looking to add a spark. Unlike many of the players profiled in this series, Dahlen is rather young, still just 24 for another four months and could, even as a depth player, add some energy when he is on the ice that players perhaps 10 years his senior can’t physically bring anymore.
Another option for Dahlen, one that may be fairly enticing at this point, would be to return to Sweden, or another European league. History shows that Dahlen can handle the North American game and produce when he’s on the ice, but in Sweden’s second league, he becomes and MVP caliber star. For a player like Dahlen, the opportunity to be at the forefront of a league close to home, playing first line minutes, could be an extremely attractive opportunity, especially if the alternative is a more limited role far from home, perhaps not even in the NHL.
Projected Contract:
The forward made $750K last year as a rookie and with that figure being the minimum salary in the NHL for 2022-23, the Sharks were seemingly unwilling to bring back Dahlen even at that number. If Dahlen is to secure a contract for next season, the most likely opportunity will be on a two-way deal or a PTO, and the result of the PTO may still be a two-way deal. This reality still wouldn’t be a bad thing, a two-way deal possibly affording him chances to play in the NHL next year, and given his age and former prospect status, teams would still give close consideration to his progress and skillset looking for a bargain.