Who Will Be The Odd Man Out Among The Panthers’ Depth Forwards?

It’s long been expected that the Panthers will be without star winger Matthew Tkachuk to start the season as a result of the adductor injury he played through in last year’s postseason en route to his second straight Stanley Cup. Late last month, that was essentially confirmed with reports indicating Tkachuk’s surgery will keep him out past New Year’s, making him eligible to begin the season on long-term injured reserve and, at least for now, solving Florida’s cap woes. They likely won’t care too much about optimizing their LTIR pool since they’ll need flexibility to activate Tkachuk before the trade deadline, meaning they’ll only get about half the potential relief, but won’t need to make any other changes to their roster as the trade-off.

The Panthers did well to retain virtually their entire forward group, including their fourth-liners and press box fixtures, keeping the would-be free agents on deals close to or at the league minimum. They’ll still need to shed north of $4MM worth of cap hits from their roster when Tkachuk is ready to return, which should inform their early-season strategy in how they go about replacing his top-six minutes.

Long speculated as a trade candidate this offseason was Evan Rodrigues, at least until Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet threw cold water on the idea of them moving him before the start of the season a few weeks ago. Understandably, they wouldn’t want to be down a serviceable, versatile veteran with Tkachuk unavailable, but the reality stands that he’s a $3MM luxury they likely won’t be able to afford when he’s ready to return.

That could result in him seeing some consistent top-six deployment in Tkachuk’s absence to boost his trade value for when general manager Bill Zito’s hand is inevitably forced. The 32-year-old has two years left on the four-year commitment he signed with the Cats in 2023, and he’s coming off his worst offensive season since the pandemic on a per-game basis. His 0.39 points per game still worked out to a fine 15-17–32 scoring line in 82 games, but he’d been on pace for at least 40 points over a full schedule in each of the past few seasons.

That production dip came despite him spending most of his ice time in the regular season with Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart at even strength. It’s worth noting he was coached into far more of a checking role than he was previously used to as the third wheel on that top unit, ending the season with a career-high 128 hits. That likely offers some explanation for the diminished offensive production, but it’s worth wondering if he might get some of Tkachuk’s vacated power-play time as well to boost his numbers and maximize his value if they do end up needing to put him on the block.

Mackie Samoskevich, their 2021 first-rounder, isn’t going anywhere this season. He projects to be their most cost-effective player this season after signing a one-year, league-minimum deal as a 10.2(c) RFA this summer and will get every chance to build on his 15-goal, 31-point performance in 72 games during his rookie season last year. He got reps in second-line duties when Tkachuk was out of commission for the last few months of the regular season and is the odds-on favorite to hold down that spot alongside Sam Bennett again when the new season opens next month.

He stands to be the most significant long-term beneficiary of Tkachuk’s absence. He’ll have infinitely increased negotiating leverage next summer with his newfound eligibility to receive and sign offer sheets, positioning himself to land a lucrative contract if he breaks out – one that the Panthers will have to do serious math to determine if they can afford.

Shedding Rodrigues won’t be enough to make Florida cap-compliant when Tkachuk comes back, though. They’re at a projected cap excess of $4.5MM with a full roster, per PuckPedia, leaving a $1.5MM balance to make up for. That would suggest Jesper Boqvist, who makes exactly that against the cap and served as the Cats’ 13th forward for a good portion of last season, will be on his way out as well. The team recently brought in free agent Luke Kunin to serve a similar role on a league-minimum salary, offering them another safeguard. Subtracting from their already thin defensive depth behind their elite top-end group isn’t a likely option.