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NHL Draft Lottery Odds For First 15 Picks

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In under two hours, a disappointing season for one team, or three depending on the results, won’t hurt as much if they are fortunate enough to land a top pick in the 2017 NHL Draft. The Draft Lottery kicks off at 8:00 PM ET and will determine which teams, if any, leapfrog their fellow non-playoff teams to earn a shot at one of the top prospects in the draft, coming up on June 23rd.

Starting in 2016, the NHL increased the stakes of the draft by putting pick #1 and picks #2 and #3 up for grabs, increasing the excitement of the lottery and also disincentivizing “tanking”, by making it possible for the worst team in the league to drop out of the top three entirely. In 2016-17, that was the Colorado Avalanche, who were historically bad with just 48 points on the year. For perspective, the Vancouver Canucks finished second-to-last with 69 points – 8 more wins than Colorado. Making things more difficult for the Avs tonight is the addition of the Vegas Golden Knights expansion team to the league starting this season. A lottery system normally based upon 14 teams was increased to 15, with everyone else’s odds being adjusted to accommodate the newcomers. Vegas was given the same odds as the third-worst team in the league, the Arizona Coyotes, and were guaranteed a top top six spot.

So, 15 teams have a shot at picks #1-#3 tonight and no team can slide more than three slots back from their regular season finish. Based upon the odds given to each team for a lottery pick, below are the complete odds of all 15 teams in the running for tonight’s NHL Draft Lottery. Be sure to check back in afterwards to see the results of tonight’s event – one that could re-shape the draft outlook in a major way.
2017 Draft Lottery Odds

Trading The First Overall Pick: A Draft Lottery Timeline

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Since the NHL draft lottery was created in 1995, there has been an uncertainty over who would be given the opportunity to select first overall in the year’s draft, with perceived “tanking” teams not being guaranteed the best spot. From it’s inception through 2012, teams could only move up four spots and thus the Los Angeles Kings—the very first winners of the lottery—couldn’t steal the first pick away from the Ottawa Senators in ’95.

But whenever a team is awarded the top spot, immediate pressure is put upon them to consider trading it. Questions are asked, stories are written and the seed of doubt creeps into a front office. ’How can we be sure that he’s the best available prospect?’ they ask, especially in years without a consensus. If Sidney Crosby or Connor McDavid aren’t staring you in the face, it may be beneficial to let someone else make that decision. Teams have indeed given up the first pick in the past.

In 1998, the Tampa Bay Lightning were easily the worst team in the league. They finished with a 17-55-10 record and at the deadline decided to give themselves a bit of insurance. They dealt Bryan Marchment and David Shaw to the San Jose Sharks for Andrei Nasarov and the right to flip picks with the Sharks should they win the lottery. The Sharks had acquired the Florida Panthers pick earlier in the year, and looked like they’d have a good chance at winning the lottery. They did just that, and the Lightning’s insurance policy paid off allowing them to flip picks and select Vincent Lecavalier first overall.

The Sharks would actually trade down one more spot, giving the Nashville Predators the chance to draft David Legwand at #2. In return, the Sharks selected Brad Stuart at #3, and Jonathan Cheechoo at #29. While both were great players for the Sharks, Lecavalier would have looked mighty fine in San Jose for the better part of his career.

In 1999, the Chicago Blackhawks actually won the draft lottery but could only move up from eighth to fourth. That winning set a huge line of trades in motion, as Brian Burke desperately worked to get the second and third picks in order to draft Daniel and Henrik Sedin. First he dealt with Chicago, then Tampa Bay and finally Atlanta, giving them the first-overall pick and the chance to draft Patrik Stefan the Czech center that had elite potential.

This story ends with the Canucks getting two legendary players who are with the team to this day, the Lightning—who originally had the first overall pick—with Dan Cloutier, Niklas Sundstrom and a whack of players who never panned out, and the Thrashers with one of the biggest draft busts in history. The Blackhawks at least got Bryan McCabe out of that original deal with the Canucks.

In 2002, the Florida Panthers were all set to draft Jay Bouwmeester first overall after winning the draft lottery and moving up from third. He was their target all along, until Doug McLean and the Columbus Blue Jackets said they wanted Rick Nash anyway, and would trade up to get him. The Panthers moved back down to the third spot after making a deal with Atlanta that they wouldn’t pick Bouwmeester at #2—they chose Kari Lehtonen instead—and everyone ended up with their guy. All Florida got for moving down was the right to swap picks with Columbus the following year, but since the Panthers would again find themselves with the first-overall pick that right was never exercised.

That 2003 lottery had much of the same for Florida, who this time moved up from the fourth spot. It was the Penguins this year who were after that top spot, eyeing a goaltender named Marc-Andre Fleury. They dealt the Panthers Mikael Samuelsson, a second-rounder and their spot at #3 overall for the right to draft “Flower” and an extra third round selection. The Panthers would pick Nathan Horton at #3, and Stefan Meyer with that second rounder.

In retrospect, trading the first overall pick has rarely generated much extra value for the team, but has caused some of the most interested draft-floor dealing in history. When teams attend the lottery this Saturday, we’ll see who may hold the cards going into the June draft. With no clear consensus in the top five once again, perhaps there is another chance for a first-overall swap this summer.

Looking Back At The Second Overall Pick

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Every year as we approach the draft, there are several fan bases pleading with the hockey gods to allow them to win the lottery and select first overall. That pleading became a deafening roar the last two seasons when the top prize was Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews, and for good reason; both of those players are already superstars, and look likely to win the Hart and Calder trophies this year.

But now, as the 2017 draft approaches there is less consensus over the top prospect and with it less fervor for the top spot. After all, if someone can’t tell Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier apart, then why should it matter whether you select first or second? It’s an interesting question, mostly because of the pressure and hype first overall picks have received through the years. While there are obviously the success stories of McDavid, Matthews, Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin, there are also cautionary tales like Nail Yakupov or Rick DiPietro—we won’t even get into Patrik Stefan.

So, let’s look back at the last twenty years and the first and second overall picks, and see how much of a drop off there really is.

1997: 1st – Joe Thornton, 2nd – Patrick Marleau
1998: 1st – Vincent Lecavalier, 2nd – David Legwand
1999: 1st – Patrik Stefan, 2nd – Daniel Sedin
2000: 1st – Rick DiPietro, 2nd – Dany Heatley
2001: 1st – Ilya Kovalchuk, 2nd – Jason Spezza
2002: 1st – Rick Nash, 2nd – Kari Lehtonen
2003: 1st – Marc-Andre Fleury, 2nd – Eric Staal
2004: 1st – Alex Ovechkin, 2nd – Evgeni Malkin
2005: 1st – Sidney Crosby, 2nd – Bobby Ryan
2006: 1st – Erik Johnson, 2nd – Jordan Staal
2007: 1st – Patrick Kane, 2nd – James van Riemsdyk
2008: 1st – Steven Stamkos, 2nd – Drew Doughty
2009: 1st – John Tavares, 2nd – Victor Hedman
2010: 1st – Taylor Hall, 2nd – Tyler Seguin
2011: 1st – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 2nd – Gabriel Landeskog
2012: 1st – Nail Yakupov, 2nd – Ryan Murray
2013: 1st – Nathan MacKinnon, 2nd – Aleksander Barkov
2014: 1st – Aaron Ekblad, 2nd – Sam Reinhart
2015: 1st – Connor McDavid, 2nd – Jack Eichel
2016: 1st – Auston Matthews, 2nd – Patrik Laine

While obviously it’s better to have the #1 pick in most drafts, there is actually arguably more instances of a “bust” among first-overall picks than second, and at least 10 drafts where the second pick is at least in the conversation as the better all-around player. Perhaps it isn’t the worst thing to have the second pick in a draft where there is no consensus.

Yesterday, the league announced the draft lottery odds with Colorado having the best chance to draft first overall. While Vegas fans are hoping and pleading that the Golden Knights somehow get that first pick and the ability to draft Patrick, it’s surely no loss to get that second spot. It may even be safer.

Snapshots: Suzuki, Thornton, Malkin, Giordano

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Now that Jack Hughes will be heading to the US Development Program, the expected first overall pick in the upcoming OHL draft was vacated. While Hughes would have been a shoe-in for the Barrie Colts selection, Bob McKenzie of TSN now reports that it will be Ryan Suzuki going first. If that last name strikes you as familiar in regards to a hockey draft, you’re not crazy—Nick Suzuki, Ryan’s older brother, is expected to go in the first round in this summer’s NHL entry draft. The older Suzuki is playing with the Owen Sound Attack of the OHL and has a chance at a Memorial Cup bid this spring. In 70 games this season (including five playoff contests), the 17-year old centerman has 106 points.

  • Shawn Thornton will call it quits after this season, and transition into a business position with the Florida Panthers according to Craig Davis of the Sun Sentinel. Thornton will finish with 705 career games played and over 1100 penalty minutes. The rough, physical forward hit double digit goals only twice in his career, but was part of two different Stanley Cup winning teams. At 39-years old, he’s carved out an impressive career for a player drafted in the seventh round who never even recorded 30 points in his junior career. While a lot of that success has to do with his fists, he’s also a testament to work ethic and perseverance.
  • Penguins’ head coach Mike Sullivan told reporters that the team is “optimistic” Evgeni Malkin will be ready for the start of the playoffs. After getting news that Kris Letang would miss 4-6 months following neck surgery, getting Malkin back as soon as possible is extremely important if the Penguins want to do any damage in the postseason. Malkin has been skating by himself for a few days, and took shots before practice this morning.
  • Mark Giordano will not receive any supplementary discipline for the hit that injured Cam Fowler last night, according to Mike Halford of NBC. Giordano went knee-on-knee with Fowler, but did receive a punishment of sorts when Josh Manson decided he deserved some justice. Losing Fowler for any length of time would be a big hit to the Ducks as they head into the postseason.

Snapshots: Hughes, Hurricanes, Ekman-Larsson

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It’s not a name that you may be familiar with just yet, but Jack Hughes is one to remember. The 15-year old was captain of the Toronto Marlboros, one of the best midget teams in the country and expected to go first overall in the upcoming OHL draft to the Barrie Colts. Eligible for the 2019 NHL entry draft, Hughes is an early (very early) favorite for the top few picks.

Instead, Darren Dreger of TSN is reporting that Hughes—born in Orlando, Florida—will sign with the US National Development Team for the next part of his hockey career. As Dreger says, it will be interesting now to see how far he falls in the OHL draft as there have been examples before of players telling the league they would be heading somewhere else, only to sign with a stronger team (see: London Knights) after falling in the draft. Regardless of where he plays, Hughes is a phenom that deserves attention even at a young age.

  • In addition to recalling Bryan Bickell less than five months after he was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis, the Carolina Hurricanes have brought up Andrew Poturalski from Charlotte and sent Lucas Wallmark and Phillip Di Giuseppe to the AHL. Poturalski went undrafted and signed with the Hurricanes last spring out of the University of New Hampshire. He has shown immense promise in his rookie AHL season, scoring 48 points in 69 games.
  • Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s season has come to an end early, as the team granted him early release to head home and deal with the death of his mother. She had been fighting a battle with cancer all season, something that has weighed on Ekman-Larsson throughout the year. “This has been a very difficult year for me personally,” said Ekman-Larsson in a statement on the team website. “I’d like to thank the Coyotes organization and all of my teammates for their incredible support all season long. I’m sorry that I’ll miss our last three games but family comes first.”
  • The Coyotes won’t be the only team without a top defender for the last few games, as the Florida Panthers will likely shut down Aaron Ekblad for the remainder of the season according to George Richards of the Miami Herald. Ekblad returned from a concussion on March 21st—a move that seemed reckless at the time—only to suffer headaches immediately after the game, causing coach Tom Rowe to admit his mistake. For the Panthers, who are eliminated from playoff contention, protecting your superstar defenseman is more important than winning some meaningless games down the stretch.

Morning Notes: Draft, RFAs, Galchenyuk

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Craig Button of TSN updated his rankings for the NHL Entry Draft, and there is big movement among the first round. After Timothy Liljegren has remained in the conversation for top-3 for so long, Button has now dropped him to eighth, as he struggles to find ice time in Sweden. Martin Necas slides into the spot following Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier, as Button compares the Czech center to a young Claude Giroux.

Cale Makar from the AJHL has made his way into the top five, an impressive feat for someone playing in a “lesser league”. Button doesn’t consider this a problem, as he is focused on evaluating where they will be at the next level, not their current competition. Makar has 75 points in 54 games as a defenseman, and has received many comparisons to Erik Karlsson in the way that he handles the puck.

  • Columbus extended three restricted free agents yesterday when they inked Markus Hannikainen, Lukas Sedlak and Scott Harrington to two-year deals. The team still has three RFAs left for this summer, and according to Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch the Blue Jackets aren’t worried about signing them. Alexander Wennberg, Josh Anderson and Joonas Korpisalo all require new deals, and the Jackets are going to be tight on money once again. Depending on who is taken at the expansion draft, they may have to consider some sort of salary dump—like Scott Hartnell, who will be scratched tonight in favor of Sedlak—in order to keep their cap structure in tact.
  • The Montreal Canadiens experienced a heartbreaking loss last night to one of the worst teams in the conference when they fell 2-1 in overtime to the Detroit Red Wings. Again their expected top line of Max Pacioretty, Alex Galchenyuk and Alexander Radulov was broken up in the third period, something that has become far too common. Eric Engels of Sportsnet writes about how Galchenyuk in particular had a rough night, and doesn’t seem to mesh well with Radulov in terms of play style. The young forward had a breakout 30-goal campaign last season, but has struggled all year with his consistency and defensive play. With just nine games remaining until the playoffs, most first-place teams don’t have the kind of doubt Montreal is feeling with their #1 centerman.

Snapshots: Lafreniere, Kerfoot, Sherwood

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In the latest edition of Insider Trading from TSN, Bob McKenzie was asked about the possibility of any exceptional status players applying for the CHL next year. Though there aren’t any 14-year-olds applying this year, McKenzie pointed out one player, Alex Lafreniere, that is a lock for first overall at the QMJHL draft and is one to keep an eye on throughout his junior career.

Lafreniere was born in late 2001, meaning he won’t be eligible for the NHL entry draft until 2020. While that is still a long way away, the 83 points in 36 games for the Saint-Eustache midget team was an incredible feat. His talent is obvious, now we’ll see how he takes playing against kids five years older than him.

  • The panel also included Darren Dreger, who relates that Alexander Kerfoot may wait out the New Jersey Devils and head to free agency. Though the Devils want to sign him when his season ends at Harvard, he’s just a few months away from becoming free to sign with whoever he wants; he’d become a UFA on August 15th. The former fifth-round pick has 40 points in 31 games this year.
  • Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch gives us a note on Kiefer Sherwood from Miami University (Ohio). The undrafted center will in all likelihood head back to college for his junior year despite interest from a handful of teams. Sherwood had 38 points in 34 games this season and just saw teammate Anthony Louis graduate to a deal with Chicago.

Post-Trade Deadline Draft Pick Update

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It was a strange NHL Trade Deadline this year. There were few – if any – deals that could be defined as a “hockey trade”, or one roster player being exchanged for another roster player or a package of roster players. Instead, most teams opted to exchange futures for impending free agents. In fact, between February 4th and March 1st, 34 draft picks changed hands. That has caused quite the shakeup in the composition of the upcoming NHL Draft, as well as future drafts. Here is a look at the current post-deadline status of the 2017 draft:

Superlatives

Most picks: Philadelphia Flyers – 12. The Flyers have loaded up on picks for this draft over the years. They own all seven of their own picks, plus five additional picks. They own the Boston Bruins’ third-round pick as part of the Zac Rinaldo trade in 2015 (yikes), the fourth-round and seventh-round selections of the Tampa Bay Lightning as part of the recent Mark Streit – Valtteri Filppula deal, the New York Islander’s fourth-rounder as part of a draft day swap for their own fourth-rounder last year, and a seventh-round selection of the New Jersey Devils in exchange for Petr Straka. 

Fewest picks: Washington Capitals/Ottawa Senators/Anaheim Ducks – 4. The Capitals could potentially have only three picks in 2017, if they have to give up their fifth round pick to the Los Angeles Kings, but that is conditional on Washington winning two playoff series (reasonable) and Tom Gilbert playing in at least half of those games (not so reasonable). Otherwise, the Caps will have their own, fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh-round selections this year. Yeah, that’s it. Meanwhile, Ottawa also has just four picks: their own first, fourth, and sixth-round selections and the Calgary Flames’ second-round choice as the return for Curtis Lazar. The Senators’ second-round pick went to Toronto as part of the return for Dion Phaneuf last year, and their third, fifth, and seventh-rounders have been moved to the Carolina Hurricanes, Pittsburgh Penguins, and San Jose Sharks respectively this season in exchange for Viktor Stalberg, Mike Condon, and Tommy Wingels. The Ducks owe the Dallas Stars a first or second, depending on their own postseasonperformance, and could potentially owe the Toronto Maple Leafs a second or third based on Jonathan Bernier’s postseason performance, but it is very unlikely. Anaheim traded away their sixth and seventh-round picks in minor deals for Colby Robak and Corey Tropp.

Strongest group of picks: Carolina Hurricanes. There have been two 2017 first-round selections traded away this year, the Washington Capitals’ pick to the St. Louis Blues in the Kevin Shattenkirk deal and the Minnesota Wild’s pick to the Arizona Coyotes in the Martin Hanzal deal. Both picks may as well be high second-rounders for the two teams leading their respective conferences and most likely to meet in the Stanley Cup, but Arizona obviously has the edge in the value of their own choice, a guaranteed top five pick, versus St. Louis, who is still likely to make the playoffs. However, neither of those teams can hold a candle to the Hurricanes when it comes to the deep 2017 draft class. Carolina also has a lottery pick of their own, as well as their own second and third-round selections, but GM Ron Francis has also collected four more picks in the second and third rounds. The ’Canes still hold another New York Rangers second-round pick from last year’s Eric Staal trade and then recently added the Pittsburgh Penguins second-round pick for Ron Hainsey. They also own the New Jersey Devils’ third-rounder from – get this – the 2014 trade of Tuomo Ruutu, as well as the aforementioned Ottawa Senators’ selection in exchange for Viktor Stalberg.

Weakest group of picks: Washington Capitals. You probably saw this coming. There are a few teams with only a handful of picks and missing a few mid-rounders. However, there are just two teams missing their first-round pick, the Capitals and the Wild, but the Caps are also missing picks two and three and could potentially lose five. Washington traded this year’s and next year’s second-rounder to the Montreal Canadiens for Lars Eller this summer and moved their third-rounder to the Buffalo Sabres for Mike Weber ahead of the 2016 trade deadline. If, as many expect, this is finally the year that Washington takes home their first ever Stanley Cup title, they won’t have a pick until the 31st choice of the fourth round, pick #124. Of course, if they do win the Cup they won’t mind picking late as much.

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Who Has The Most 2017 Draft Picks?

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With the NHL Trade Deadline in full swing, 2017 draft picks become key assets in acquiring players for a post-season run. The more draft picks a team has, the more it can offer in return. Moreover, draft picks that pan out early offer GMs cost-certainty by tying productive players to cheap contracts. A team cannot succeed in the NHL under the salary cap without some cheap talented prospects.

The Carolina Hurricanes leads the league in 2017 draft picks with ten, followed closely by the Philadelphia Flyers with nine. Technically Philadelphia has 10, but its 7th round pick—acquired from NJ—is conditional on either being a 2017 or 2018 pick. Given how GMs believe that teams will improve every year, this post assumes that the New Jersey Devils chooses that Philadelphia receives New Jersey’s 2018 pick instead.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Ottawa Senators has a league-least four draft picks. That may hamstring Ottawa’s ability to acquire players at the deadline because they cannot afford to lose any more picks this year. Another surprising tally is the Arizona Coyotes with six picks. The Coyotes will most likely pick up a few more before the trade deadline passes, but seven may not be enough for a lottery team with a modern analytical GM.

Teams
10  Carolina Hurricanes
9   Philadelphia Flyers
9   Chicago Blackhawks
9   Detroit Red Wings
9   New Jersey Devils
8   Buffalo Sabres
8   Edmonton Oilers
8   San Jose Sharks
8   Tampa Bay Lightning
8   Winnipeg Jets
7   Arizona Coyotes
7   Colorado Avalanche
7   Columbus Blue Jackets
7   Dallas Stars
7   Los Angeles Kings
7   Nashville Predators
7   Pittsburgh Penguins
7   Toronto Maple Leafs
6   Boston Bruins
6   Calgary Flames
6   Florida Panthers
6   Minnesota Wild
6   Montreal Canadiens
6   New York Rangers
6   St. Louis Blues
5   Anaheim Ducks
5   New York Islanders
5   Vancouver Canucks
5   Washington Capitals
4   Ottawa Senators

Poll: 2005 NHL Draft Take Two: Thirtieth Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2005 NHL Draft, which kicked off the salary cap era and ushered in many of the current NHL superstars. The question we’re looking to answer is knowing now what we didn’t know then, how different would this draft look now with the benefit of hindsight?

Here are the results of our redraft so far:

1st Overall: Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins)
2nd Overall: Carey Price (Mighty Ducks of Anaheim)
3rd Overall: Anze Kopitar (Carolina Hurricanes)
4th Overall: Jonathan Quick (Minnesota Wild)
5th Overall: Kris Letang (Montreal Canadiens)
6th Overall: Tuukka Rask (Columbus Blue Jackets)
7th Overall: Bobby Ryan (Chicago Blackhawks)
8th Overall: Marc-Edouard Vlasic (San Jose Sharks)
9th Overall: Ben Bishop (Ottawa Senators)
10th Overall: James Neal (Vancouver Canucks)
11th Overall: T.J. Oshie (Los Angeles Kings)
12th Overall: Keith Yandle (New York Rangers)
13th Overall: Paul Stastny (Buffalo Sabres)
14th Overall: Marc Staal (Washington Capitals)
15th Overall: Patric Hornqvist (New York Islanders)
16th Overall: Niklas Hjalmarsson (Atlanta Thrashers)
17th Overall: Anton Stralman (Phoenix Coyotes)
18th Overall: Jack Johnson (Nashville Predators)
19th Overall: Matt Niskanen (Detroit Red Wings)
20th Overall: Justin Abdelkader (Florida Panthers)
21st Overall: Martin Hanzal (Toronto Maple Leafs)
22nd Overall: Andrew Cogliano (Boston Bruins)
23rd Overall: Kris Russell (New Jersey Devils)
24th Overall: Darren Helm (St. Louis Blues)
25th Overall: Cody Franson (Edmonton Oilers)
26th Overall: Benoit Pouliot (Calgary Flames)
27th Overall: Vladimir Sobotka (Washington Capitals)
28th Overall: Devin Setoguchi (Dallas Stars)
29th Overall: Mason Raymond (Philadelphia Flyers)

Now we move forward to the 30th and final pick of the first round, which was held by the Tampa Bay Lightning.

To recap how this works:

  • We will go through the 2005 NHL Draft and have our readers select, through a voting process, who they think should have been taken with the selection.
  • The entire first round will be redrafted, spanning picks one through thirty. The new selection is chosen by the majority of votes.

Back in 2005, the Lightning opted to go big, selecting 6’7 defenseman Vladimir Mihalik.  As was the case with every other team that picked a hulking blueliner primarily based on his size, this selection didn’t exactly work out for Tampa Bay.

Mihalik played in just 15 games for the Lightning (picking up three assists) while on his entry level contract and spent the majority of his four years in North America with AHL Norfolk.  He opted to go back across the pond after the 2011-12 campaign and has spent time in Sweden, Russia, and his native Slovakia this season.  Suffice it to say, they’d undoubtedly like a mulligan on this pick which you can vote on right now.

With the 30th pick of the 2005 NHL Redraft, who should the Lightning select?  Cast your vote below!

Mobile users, click here to vote.

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