Every year as we approach the draft, there are several fan bases pleading with the hockey gods to allow them to win the lottery and select first overall. That pleading became a deafening roar the last two seasons when the top prize was Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews, and for good reason; both of those players are already superstars, and look likely to win the Hart and Calder trophies this year.
But now, as the 2017 draft approaches there is less consensus over the top prospect and with it less fervor for the top spot. After all, if someone can’t tell Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier apart, then why should it matter whether you select first or second? It’s an interesting question, mostly because of the pressure and hype first overall picks have received through the years. While there are obviously the success stories of McDavid, Matthews, Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin, there are also cautionary tales like Nail Yakupov or Rick DiPietro—we won’t even get into Patrik Stefan.
So, let’s look back at the last twenty years and the first and second overall picks, and see how much of a drop off there really is.
1997: 1st – Joe Thornton, 2nd – Patrick Marleau
1998: 1st – Vincent Lecavalier, 2nd – David Legwand
1999: 1st – Patrik Stefan, 2nd – Daniel Sedin
2000: 1st – Rick DiPietro, 2nd – Dany Heatley
2001: 1st – Ilya Kovalchuk, 2nd – Jason Spezza
2002: 1st – Rick Nash, 2nd – Kari Lehtonen
2003: 1st – Marc-Andre Fleury, 2nd – Eric Staal
2004: 1st – Alex Ovechkin, 2nd – Evgeni Malkin
2005: 1st – Sidney Crosby, 2nd – Bobby Ryan
2006: 1st – Erik Johnson, 2nd – Jordan Staal
2007: 1st – Patrick Kane, 2nd – James van Riemsdyk
2008: 1st – Steven Stamkos, 2nd – Drew Doughty
2009: 1st – John Tavares, 2nd – Victor Hedman
2010: 1st – Taylor Hall, 2nd – Tyler Seguin
2011: 1st – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 2nd – Gabriel Landeskog
2012: 1st – Nail Yakupov, 2nd – Ryan Murray
2013: 1st – Nathan MacKinnon, 2nd – Aleksander Barkov
2014: 1st – Aaron Ekblad, 2nd – Sam Reinhart
2015: 1st – Connor McDavid, 2nd – Jack Eichel
2016: 1st – Auston Matthews, 2nd – Patrik Laine
While obviously it’s better to have the #1 pick in most drafts, there is actually arguably more instances of a “bust” among first-overall picks than second, and at least 10 drafts where the second pick is at least in the conversation as the better all-around player. Perhaps it isn’t the worst thing to have the second pick in a draft where there is no consensus.
Yesterday, the league announced the draft lottery odds with Colorado having the best chance to draft first overall. While Vegas fans are hoping and pleading that the Golden Knights somehow get that first pick and the ability to draft Patrick, it’s surely no loss to get that second spot. It may even be safer.
First overall in certain drafts is a tricky thing. Nail Yakupov is a great example of this. I think GMs feel like anyone they pick will have a reasonably high floor, so they go for the player they deem to have the most upside, I mean who really considers bust as a possibility, or significant underperformance of reasonable expectations? But realistically it can happen, when you pick a player that is less-rounded but has higher upside. Then there are just the slam-dunk players… Those are easy.
What I’m trying to get at, is that I think that picking first overall in a draft without a consensus #1 has a negative effect on GMs reasoning. I think they convince themselves to pick off-the-board when if they had the exact same players available while picking 3rd, they’d make a different decision.