Poll: Is Tyson Barrie A Significant Upgrade Over Jake Gardiner?
While most people look at the Toronto Maple Leafs’ acquisition of Tyson Barrie as a major plus when the team picked up the lead defenseman and Alex Kerfoot for Nazem Kadri and Calle Rosen on July 1, there are other analytics experts who suggest that the addition of Barrie isn’t much, if any improvements over Jake Gardiner, who the team has allowed to walk away in free agency.
Of course, Barrie looks like an impressive upgrade, especially when you look at his offensive numbers. Barrie scored 14 goals and 59 points last season and posted 57 points the previous year, giving Toronto another top-notch offensive defenseman next to Morgan Rielly. Gardiner was a second-pairing defenseman whose offense disappeared last year with 30 points, even though he posted 52 points the previous season. However, only one player, Barrie or Rielly, can get those first-line power play minutes and there is no guarantee that Barrie will be able to pry those minutes away from Rielly next season, suggesting that Barrie’s number’s could drop quite a bit. In fact, two goals and 23 assists came off the power play last season where Barrie was the team’s quarterback of the first power play unit.
However, analytics suggest that Gardiner, despite his struggles might prove to be a better blueliner, especially defensively. While Toronto is an offensive juggernaut, Gardiner still had a plus-19 rating in plus-minus, while there are some questions about how good a defender Barrie is. In Colorado, Barrie posted a minus-3 on an Avalanche squad that made the playoffs last season and a minus-19 the previous year, when they were a playoff team as well. While plus-minus might be considered to be an unreliable fact, Gardiner has been solid for Toronto despite the fact receiving Toronto fans wrath for years. He has averaged over 21:48 of ATOI over the past three years and in those three years ranks 23rd in the league in points with 125. In goals above replacement (GAR), which is an all-encompassing stat to evaluate skaters, Gardiner ranked 17th among defenseman last year and fifth in the league at even strength, according to evolving-hockey.com. Barrie ranked 50th last season and 66th at even strength.
However, Gardiner’s value seems to have dropped. Despite being considered one of the top defensive free agents on the unrestricted free agent market, Gardiner remains unsigned with rumors he’s seeking $7MM per season. While a change in scenery might have been needed for Gardiner, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Barrie will be the better player.
So, is Barrie a significant upgrade over Gardiner?
Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.
Pacific Notes: Kadri, Wright, Lindholm, Doughty
Before the Colorado Avalanche acquired Nazem Kadri from the Toronto Maple Leafs in a big deal involving Tyson Barrie, the Calgary Flames were close to acquiring the veteran center. However, Kadri refused to waive his 10-team no-trade clause that would have sent him in a deal that would have included defenseman T.J. Brodie.
The Calgary Sun’s Wes Gilbertson writes that Kadri did admit that he rejected the deal to Calgary in hopes of convincing the Maple Leafs that he wanted to stay with the team.
“What happened is they had a deal in place and they wanted me to move my no-trade clause,” Kadri explained. “Obviously, for me, it was no disrespect to Calgary or the Flames organization — I love their team and I love the direction they’re headed. I just figured that had I declined, I would have had a better opportunity of being a Maple Leaf next year, and that’s really what it came down to. “I wanted to play for the Leafs next year. I wanted to be a part of that. In declining that trade, I had aspirations of being a Leaf, and we know clearly that didn’t happen.”
Instead he did get traded to Colorado and now will take over as the team’s second-line center in hopes of developing a powerful secondary scoring line after their top line of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog.
- The Athletic’s Daniel Nugent-Bowman (subscription required) delves into the drafting success of the Edmonton Oilers’ new director of amateur scouting, Tyler Wright, noting that while the long-time executive with the Columbus Blue Jackets and Detroit Red Wings has had lukewarm success drafting in the first round, he has been successful in the later rounds of drafts, having nabbed several key players late in the draft, including Josh Anderson, Boone Jenner, Oliver Bjorkstrand and Filip Hronek and could provide value for Edmonton who hasn’t had as much luck later in the draft.
- In a mailbag piece, The Athletic’s Eric Stephens (subscription required) writes that while defenseman Hampus Lindholm is a solid top-pairing defenseman, his offense still hasn’t come around and at age 25, time is running out. The blueliner posted 34 points in his second season back in the 2014-15 season and hasn’t reached that target since then. However, Stephens writes that Lindholm was never a big fan of Randy Carlyle‘s system and could thrive under new head coach Dallas Eakins and show off some more offense, potentially becoming a regular at 40 points.
- Looking back at the recent history of signings by the Los Angeles Kings, The Athletic’s Lisa Dillman (subscription required) looks at the best and worst deals handed out since 2009. Unfortunately for the Kings, the top bad contract is only kicking in this year as the eight-year, $88MM contract that star defenseman Drew Doughty signed a year ago is about to kick in at age 29. After a down season last year, the 29-year-old blueliner will be getting paid $11MM until he turns 37 years old. Not a good sign if people think that before he’s even started getting paid.
Morning Notes: Dzingel, Hall, Kadri
Ryan Dzingel is arguably the top remaining unrestricted free agent, ranked No. 12 overall by PHR and the leading scorer this past season among all available names. Yet, there’s been surprisingly little noise surrounding Dzingel, a 27-year-old coming off of a career high’s across the board. The New York Post’s Larry Brooks writes that some teams are skeptical about Dzingel’s potential for production, not based on his year overall but rather his late-season stint with the Columbus Blue Jackets. After being moved at the NHL Trade Deadline by the Ottawa Senators, Dzingel recorded just 12 points in 21 games with Columbus and eventually lost the trust of the coaching staff in the postseason, with one point in nine games earning him a healthy scratch. Brooks remarks that the Blue Jackets’ lack of interest in retaining Dzingel, a former star at nearby Ohio State University, is one of several “red flags” for the young winger this off-season.
It’s likely that price is playing a role in Dzingel’s market as well. After a 56-point campaign, Dzingel’s camp was though to be seeking a $5MM AAV over a long-term contract. In a vacuum, that would seem to be a fair offer, but in a market where many teams are closer to the salary cap limit than expected, a player who is coming off a disappointing final few months of the season may need to lower his expectations. That rings especially true if he wants to land with one of his reported top destinations and a team known to have interest, the Chicago Blackhawks. Dzingel is an Illinois native and his skill set would seem to fit in perfectly with his hometown Blackhawks, who could still use another top-six winger. However, The Chicago Sun-Times’ Ben Pope writes that the team would have to move out a player, likely Artem Anisimov or Connor Murphy, to accommodate Dzingel’s salary demands. Until that happens, Pope cites GM Stan Bowman, who recently said his roster is “pretty full” and currently only in need of “housekeeping”. That doesn’t mean that Chicago, whose off-season moves have pointed toward a deep desire to return to contender status, will not continue to pursue Dzingel, but it may prove too difficult at his current asking price. If the scoring winger wants to ensure he has a long-term fit in a place that he’d like to be, Dzingel could consider taking a lesser deal to join the Blackhawks.
- Another team looking to return to the playoffs are the New Jersey Devils and GM Ray Shero and company have certainly done their part in that pursuit this summer, drafting Jack Hughes, trading for P.K. Subban, and signing Wayne Simmonds. While the ultimate goal is to become a contender as soon as possible, the more pressing need – also with that goal in mind – is to convince superstar forward Taylor Hall that New Jersey is a team worth staying with to win a Stanley Cup. Hall is an impending free agent next summer and could be in line for a record-breaking contract, whether he tests the open market or not. The Devils have the cap space to meet his salary demands, but needed to focus this off-season on improving the talent around him after a season in which the team finished well outside the playoff picture. On paper, New Jersey should return to relevance next season and early indications are that Hall is happy with the transformation. In an interview with TSN, the 2018 Hart Trophy winner said that seeing the summer used to improve the talent level of the team and inject new blood after a disappointing campaign is exactly what you want to see. He added that Shero asked his opinion of the Subban trade before it was made and that he was totally on board and excited to play with his fellow star. All signs point to Hall being in favor of these off-season changes and eager to get started with the new season. If the Devils perform to the level they should on paper, Hall will have much more reason to consider a long-term extension to stay in New Jersey.
- New Colorado Avalanche center Nazem Kadri could have gone elsewhere if he wanted. The Toronto Sun’s Steve Simmons reports that Kadri flexed his No-Trade Clause to block a trade to the Calgary Flames. Even after taking calls from Flames GM Brad Treliving and head coach Bill Peters, Kadri nixed a deal that would have seen he and Connor Brown, now an Ottawa Senator, go to Calgary in exchange for T.J. Brodie and Mark Jankowski. Simmons did not explain why Kadri was anti-Calgary, but did note that the fit in Colorado is better. As for the end result for the Leafs, Tyson Barrie and Alexander Kerfoot are a better package, but cost the the team young defenseman Calle Rosen, who Simmons states they did not wish to move, as well as a third-round pick. Also, Brodie would have been a more affordable defenseman to re-sign compare to Barrie, who could very well price himself out of Toronto after one year. It’s a toss up on which deal would have been better had Kadri not put his foot down.
Toronto Maple Leafs Acquire Tyson Barrie
The Toronto Maple Leafs have acquired Tyson Barrie, Alexander Kerfoot and a 2020 sixth-round pick from the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for Nazem Kadri, Calle Rosen and a 2020 third-round selection. The Avalanche will also be retaining 50% of Barrie’s contract, which results in the Maple Leafs only being responsible for a $2.75MM cap hit for the offensive defenseman.
For some time now the Maple Leafs have been looking for an upgrade on the right side of their blue line, and will get it in Barrie who is coming off another incredible offensive season. The 27-year old had 14 goals and 59 points for the Avalanche and has been one of the league’s top puck-movers since entering the league back in 2011-12. Through 484 career games, Barrie has 307 points and could form a solid one-two punch with Morgan Rielly who is also coming off a career-best 72-point season. The team now projects to have a brand new right side with Barrie joining Cody Ceci who was acquired from the Ottawa Senators earlier today.
The Leafs have actually cleared even more cap space with this deal for the time being, as Kadri had three years left on his contract and carried a $4.5MM hit. That may change quickly however as Kerfoot is a restricted free agent coming off consecutive 40+ point seasons after signing out of Harvard University. The 24-year old decided not to join the New Jersey Devils who originally drafted him and instead went to Colorado where he has enjoyed a healthy opportunity playing both center and wing. Kerfoot has recorded 31 of his 85 career points on the powerplay, but may not get quite the same chance to touch the puck in Toronto with the man advantage given their glut of talented forwards.
For Colorado, this deal is all about securing a legitimate second-line center to play behind Nathan MacKinnon. Though Kadri was limited to just 16 goals and 44 points last season with the Maple Leafs that was more about opportunity and usage than talent. The seventh-overall pick from 2009 had consecutive 32-goal seasons prior to Toronto’s signing of John Tavares which bumped him down in the lineup, and he should get close to that again if given the chance in Colorado. The fact that he is cost-controlled for three more seasons at a more than reasonable $4.5MM makes him an extremely valuable piece for the Avalanche who have added a fair amount of scoring prowess in the last few days.
The biggest reason Barrie was even available is the way the Avalanche have built out their blue line, with names like Cale Makar, Bowen Byram and Conor Timmins all looking like they will be real contributors next season. The Maple Leafs meanwhile will hope that they can maintain some level of depth down the middle with the signings they made today, adding Jason Spezza and Nick Shore to the mix. William Nylander and Kerfoot also have experience at center, while Auston Matthews and John Tavares will obviously dominate the playing time and matchups.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Toronto Maple Leafs Closing In On Extension With Andreas Johnsson
Sunday: The Toronto Sun’s Terry Korshan reports that Dubas confirmed the Johnsson contract is nearly done. “They’re right at the finish line, we just have to punch them across, which will be nice,” said Dubas (via The Athletic’s Jonas Siegel).
Saturday: With news of the Toronto Maple Leafs closing in on a contract with restricted free agent forward Kasperi Kapanen, TSN’s Darren Dreger now reports that the Maple Leafs are also close to signing restricted free agent forward Andreas Johnsson to a four-year extension somewhere between $3.25MM and $3.5MM.
While the team has a number of issues to deal with, namely trying to work on a long-term deal with restricted free agent Mitch Marner, the team seems to be proactive in working out deals with both Kapanen and Johnsson, both who have proven to be key top-six wingers for the team this season. After two successful seasons with the Toronto Marlies, the 24-year-old broke out with a 20-goal, 43-point season this year. There also was plenty of discussion that both Johnsson and Kapanen could be prime candidates for other teams to sign to offer sheets, but it looks like both players were more interested in staying in the fold in Toronto.
With cap room being a significant issue, there was plenty of talk that Johnsson or Kapanen could be used as trade bait to eventually send off some cap room. However, the Maple Leafs did free up some of that cap room when they traded away Patrick Marleau and his $6.25MM contract to Carolina earlier today and instead of one of their young restricted free agents, sent a condictional first-rounder to Carolina instead. With Marleau’s contract off the books, that money can now be used to sign both Kapanen and Johnsson, although both deals could be held up until they can sign Marner. The team still will likely have to move other contracts with rumors suggesting the team is considering shipping out forwards Connor Brown and possibly even center Nazem Kadri, in order to get all three under contract and that doesn’t even factor the team’s hope they can still sign unrestricted free agent defenseman Jake Gardiner to an extension.
Toronto Maple Leafs Listening On Kapanen, Kadri
The Toronto Maple Leafs have dominated headlines as the draft approaches because of their ongoing negotiations with top restricted free agent Mitch Marner, but might be making news of another kind in the coming days. Darren Dreger of TSN reports that the Maple Leafs are “bracing for activity” and will listen to trade offers for both Kasperi Kapanen and Nazem Kadri. Dreger also lists Connor Brown as a possible trade candidate.
Kapanen, 22, has already been traded once in his young career, flipped to the Maple Leafs as a key part of the Phil Kessel deal with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2015. Though he’d flirted with NHL playing time over the last several seasons, Kapanen broke out as a regular with the Maple Leafs in 2018-19, scoring 20 goals and 44 points in 78 games. Often strapped to Auston Matthews‘ wing, Kapanen took advantage of the situation Toronto found themselves in without William Nylander to start the season and proved he could be a top-six player in the NHL even at a young age.
Scheduled to hit restricted free agency for the first time, the speedster isn’t yet eligible for salary arbitration but should still earn a healthy raise. That poses a problem for Toronto who are still waiting to see where Marner’s deal will leave them in terms of cap space for next season. With news that the cap ceiling may not be as high as originally thought, there’s good reason for the Maple Leafs to listen on potential trade offers, and Dreger notes that they are looking for a defenseman in return for the young winger. In fact, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic tweets that Toronto recently spoke with the Carolina Hurricanes about a deal that would have seen Kapanen and Brown exchanged for Brett Pesce. LeBrun isn’t the first person to indicate that Carolina isn’t willing to move Pesce at the moment however.
Kadri meanwhile is in a different situation, as he is one of the few bargains the Maple Leafs have on the roster currently. Now a third-line center thanks to the acquisition of John Tavares, the 28-year old is a two-time 30-goal scorer and carries just a $4.5MM cap hit for three more seasons. His contract is relatively inexpensive for his skill level but after seeing his goal total drop to just 16 in 2018-19 and earning a playoff suspension for the second consecutive season, his name has been in trade rumors for weeks. Dreger notes that the Maple Leafs would want a center back in any Kadri deal.
Metropolitan Notes: Faulk, Werenski, Harrington, Devils
After an impressive playoff run that has Carolina looking like an improved franchise, the Hurricanes don’t want it to be a fluke season. The team, which based much of its success on an impressive blueline, wants to commit to it long term. Therefore despite being mentioned as a trade candidate for more than a full season, it looks like Carolina wants to commit long-term to Justin Faulk. The defenseman has one year remaining on his contract, but The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun (subscription required) reports that the team has reached out to Faulk and his agent in hopes of signing an extension when he’s eligible on July 1.
LeBrun adds that Faulk, who has played his entire eight-year career in Carolina, is amenable to an extension, although it’s likely he would demand a no-trade clause this time around. That would give Carolina three right-handed top-four defensemen in Faulk, Dougie Hamilton and Brett Pesce, but he says that the Hurricanes are OK with having that right depth on the right side and are comfortable keeping all three.
However, the Fourth Period reports that Carolina is looking to acquire a top-six winger to boost their offense this year and that the team is willing to trade one of their top defenseman to make that happen. The report suggests that Carolina is one of the teams that has inquired on Minnesota’s Jason Zucker and has spoken to Toronto about both William Nylander, Kasperi Kapanen and Nazem Kadri in the past.
- The Athletic’s Allison Lukan (subscription required) reports that while the Columbus Blue Jackets have several options on how they want to sign restricted free agent Zach Werenski, it’s almost a lock that Columbus will attempt to sign him to a long-term deal. The 21-year-old blueliner just finished up his entry-level deal and is in line for a big payday after posting 38 goals and 128 points over three years, but with plenty of cap room and multiple free agents walking away from Columbus, locking him up to a long-term deal, which could exceed $6MM, is likely going to be the team’s goal.
- Sticking with the Blue Jackets, the team has another restricted free agent who is expected to get a raise this summer. Brian Hedger of the Columbus Dispatch writes that defenseman Scott Harrington, who has had trouble catching on to an NHL team early in his career after playing just 79 NHL games over the past four seasons with three different teams, has found a home in Columbus. The 26-year-old played his first full season, playing 73 games, mostly as a bottom-six defenseman, but was instrumental to the Blue Jackets as a character leader in the locker room. After making just $675K last season, Harrington could potentially double his salary for next season.
- The Athletic’s Corey Masisak (subscription required) lays out the possibilities on what the New Jersey Devils can do with their second-round pick (No. 34). With three second-round picks, the 34th pick is a valuable asset that could allow the team to trade into the first round or use to trade for a significant impact player to bolster its team. The scribe looks at past teams in similar positions, including a 2013 trade in which the Buffalo Sabres traded several players and the No. 31 pick for Ryan O’Reilly.
Trade Rumors: Trade Bait, Panarin, Condon
For everyone but the Boston Bruins and St. Louis Blues, the off-season is already in full swing and with the NHL Draft less than three weeks away, the rumor mill is starting to heat back up. TSN’s Frank Seravalli has updated his Trade Bait list and it features a whopping ten new names out of 25 total players. Leading the way among the newcomers is talented, young Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere. Gostisbehere has emerged as a candidate to move if the Flyers can land a top-six forward in exchange, as they look to be aggressive this off-season. Also new to the list are names included in the overturned Phil Kessel-to-Minnesota trade, Jack Johnson and Victor Rask, with Jason Zucker and Kessel now long-time fixtures. Another player tied to recent rumors making his trade bait debut is the Vancouver Canucks’ Loui Eriksson, who has been linked to former teammate Milan Lucic, also on the list, and the Edmonton Oilers, but could move in any number of possible deals. As the Florida Panthers look to shake up their roster in free agency, James Reimer and Mike Hoffman have made the list as possible cap space casualties. So too have Toronto Maple Leafs teammates Nazem Kadri and Mitch Marner, even though Seravalli himself agrees that a Marner trade is a long shot. With plenty of talent filling the early off-season trade bait board, it could be a busy summer for high-profile trades, some of which could begin even before the draft kicks off on June 21st.
- A seemingly curious continued presence on the trade bait list is that of Artemi Panarin. It was one thing for Panarin to be atop the list as the trade deadline approached and the Columbus Blue Jackets were unsure whether or not they would sell the all-world forward. However, after keeping Panarin, an impending unrestricted free agent, it may seem that his trade value has now disappeared, since he is weeks away from hitting the open market. However, as a 27-year-old premiere free agent, both Panarin and his suitors will be interested in that eighth year of contract term that is only available to the incumbent team. As such, the Blue Jackets could look to squeeze the very last drops of value out of Panarin by trading his rights before the league year ends, allowing a new team to sign him to an eight-year extension rather than a seven-year free agent contract. While possible, and often valuable, acquiring UFA signing rights is not as frequent a move as one might expect. The last team to do so was the Florida Panthers in 2016, adding an expiring Keith Yandle for a a sixth-round pick and conditional fourth-round pick. That same year, the Arizona Coyotes did the same, bringing in Alex Goligoski on the tail end of his contract with the Dallas Stars for a fifth-round pick. Not since Ilya Bryzgalov in 2011 has a player’s UFA rights drawn more than a fourth-round pick at best, but Panarin is a unique player and Columbus could land a third-round pick or more in exchange for the opportunity to sign him to that one extra year – and to keep him from testing the market.
- Unsurprisingly, the extension of goaltender Anders Nilsson in Ottawa has prompted speculation that the Senators will try to move overpaid third-string option Mike Condon. The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch writes that Condon’s “days are numbered” with the team, as there’s no room for him in Ottawa behind Nilsson and Craig Anderson and he’s not wanted in Belleville with Filip Gustavsson, Joey Daccord, and possibly Marcus Hogberg in the mix. Cap space is not a problem for the Senators, but Garrioch still believes they would prefer to trade Condon and all or part of his $2.4MM salary next season rather than buy him out at the cost of $400K next year and $1MM the year after. Garrioch can only make a case that perhaps some team with weak goalie depth would be interested in Condon as a strong AHL option next season, as the 29-year-old is unlikely to be considered a regular NHL option. Perhaps after the free agent goalie market shakes out in early July, the Senators will be able to find a partner who missed out on their targets and could use Condon’s services. Otherwise, a buyout does seem to be the more likely route.
Eastern Notes: Canadiens, Armia, Capitals’ Defense, Kadri
After a couple of down years, the Montreal Canadiens had a much more respectable season last year and with things looking up, general manager Marc Bergevin is going to want to add to his team. With close to $10MM to spend this year, the team could consider going after big-name free agents.
However, Pat Hickey of the Montreal Gazette writes that a second option would be for the Canadiens to go after Toronto Maple Leafs’ Mitch Marner. While offer sheets in the NHL are quite rare, that could change this offseason with so many intriguing restricted free agents out there. The team could conceivably sign Marner to an offer sheet and if the Canadiens offer a deal between $8.54MM to $10.56MM, and successfully pry him away from Toronto, the compensation would be reasonable in two first-round picks, a second-rounder and a third-rounder.
Even if Toronto matches any offer sheet, the Canadiens will have still accomplished quite a bit as the rival franchise is currently struggling with salary cap issues and a big offer would only hamper general manager Kyle Dubas‘ long-term plans.
- Sticking with the Canadiens, while one of the main reasons that the Montreal Canadiens took Joel Armia in the Steve Mason deal was that Armia was from the same hometown in Finland as last year’s top pick Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Armia has been significant in helping Kotkaniemi to transition to North America. However, while Armia’s numbers have been solid when playing next to Kotkaniemi on the ice, his numbers when playing without him haven’t been that good. The Athletic’s Marc Dupont (subscription required) writes the team needs to be cautious about signing Armia, who hits restricted free agency this summer, to a long-term contract. Armia, who tallied 13 goals as a third-liner, and probably should be signed to a short-term deal to assess for now.
- The Washington Capitals didn’t get back to the Stanley Cup Finals liked they hoped and with continuous salary cap issues to deal with, there is a good chance the Capitals’ blueline will have to be reconstructed, according to the Washington Post’s Isabelle Khurshudyan. The scribe writes that the team might be ready to move on from veteran defenseman Matt Niskanen, after the team acquired Nick Jensen at the trade deadline. Jensen is four years younger than Niskanen and has the same skillset. The team is also expected to move on from Brooks Orpik, giving more opportunity to the team’s young defensive prospects it has been amassing over the last couple of years, including Jonas Siegenthaler, Lucas Johansen, Alex Alexeyev, Connor Hobbs, Colby Williams and Tyler Lewington.
- Sam Carchidi of Philly.com writes that the Philadelphia Flyers are going to want to make some type of splash to add a big-name player either through free agency or via trade. While throwing out names like Matt Duchene and Kevin Hayes are one option, the scribe suggests that the Flyers should consider trading for Toronto Maple Leafs’ Nazem Kadri, who is coming off a career-low 16 goals. With Toronto management down on him somewhat, the Flyers could get a steal of a deal as the center has three years on his deal at a reasonable $4.5MM AAV. Kadri would make an excellent second-line center, who could slide back to the third line once Nolan Patrick is ready to move up.
Maple Leafs’ Off-Season On Hold Until Mitch Marner Decision
With over $74MM tied up in 17 players heading into next season, none of whom are young star winger Mitch Marner, the Toronto Maple Leafs are in for a tough summer. It is clear that signing Marner is “priority one”, but what Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston points out is that in terms of not just importance, but also time. Speaking with Leafs GM Kyle Dubas, there was an understanding that Toronto cannot do much this off-season prior to signing Marner (or else moving him):
Without an answer on Mitch, we’re going to kind of be in a stalemate, right? It is a top priority because we’re not going to jump around and chew up our cap space that we may need for Mitch with fringe signings, either. It’s important. We’ve just got to get to work on it and get it done… It’s a tough process. It’s long, and just don’t expect anything to get done nice and smoothly. It’s always a battle.
Dubas has been adamant that the team will need to resolve the Marner situation by July 1st, one way or another, and for good reason. Following another early playoff exit, the team is hoping to improve this off-season and the free agent market, which opens on that date, will be one of their main opportunities. However, as Dubas notes, the team cannot make even fringe additions until Marner is signed and their salary cap status is clear. The team is expected to lose defenseman Jake Gardiner, but more affordable extensions with the likes of Ron Hainsey, Tyler Ennis, and Michael Hutchinson remain possible, yet harder to get done once those players hit the open market.
One other way to solve the cap crisis is via trade, but even that route is risky without clarity on Marner. While fans may prefer to see the likes of Nikita Zaitsev, Nazem Kadri, or Connor Brown dealt away, it is Marner’s RFA brethren Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson who will carry more value on the trade market. Just like their UFA counterparts in Toronto, Dubas and company cannot re-sign Kapanen and Johnsson – who are due substantial raises of their own – without first knowing the details on Marner. The team would also be taking a major risk by trading either one in hopes of creating the space needed for Marner, as failure to get the star forward signed regardless would leave them down two young scoring assets.
Johnston writes that offer sheets – often an over-hyped false reality anyway – are the least of the Leafs’ worries. Not only would the team have the right to match any offer made to Marner, but a deal large enough to lure him away from his hometown team would likely net Toronto four first-round picks. That price could be worth giving Marner up, if any team actually had the audacity to make such a move.
There seems to be mutual benefit between Marner and the Maple Leafs in getting a new deal done. However, only Toronto has a time crunch to manage, while Marner can hold out for his best possible deal, as he has every right to do. It seems like the Leafs won’t possibly be able to sign Marner without first moving out some salary, so if any move can occur before a Marner extension, expect it to be a cap dump by Dubas. Otherwise, prepare for a quiet couple of months in Toronto until this situation can be resolved.